the real tendline proves bitcoin is overvalued

[NamelessOne]

I don't care about bulls or bears, but damn is that ignore button ever getting more and more colorful...

[1714518099]

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[Kazu]

THAT IS NOT A NORMAL LINE!

Lol, this is the most random thing I've read all week.

[Ares]

Is the OP really implying that a linear model is the most accurate price model?

lmao.

This.

[drnick]

https://i.imgur.com/785p1DO.png

So...what your trendline is saying is...it should be the price it is today in September or so. So by December it will be higher. So buy, right?

[phillyj]

Insert obligatory xkcd:

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png


Trendlines are just for initial research. What do the fundamentals say?

[Homebrewman]

WTF IS A TENDLINE?   

[phillyj]

In technical analysis, people stare at charts and look for patterns. They come up with weird things like dead-cat-bounce and weird tools like candlesticks. I never trust them for more than a cursory sorting of stocks. The fundamental numbers like debt, assets, etc will give you a clearer picture of the health of a company. I'm not sure what the fundamentals are for bitcoin.

[Mouser]

IF one uses a linear TRENDLINE:

When will the inherent worth of one BTC = 1000 USD?

Begin here;

April 2011 ca $2, April 2013 ca $139.

So (roughly) $68.50 per year inherent increase.

1000 - 139 = 861

861/68.5 = 12.569 years.

It's a "long" few years according to steady linear growth of the INHERENT bitcoin worth being 1000 USD. Again spikes could see the ATH above 1000 several years and multiple times before the inherent worth catches up.

For example the inherent worth of BTC being 266 USD will occur in;

266 - 139 = 127

127/68.5 = 1.854 years.

Also in about a year and 10 months or February 2015 - but we have already spiked that value once in 2013.

"You've got to know when to hold them."

Don't be a gambler, be smart, buy bitcoins.

N.B. If the US Federal reserve note crashes, 1 BTC will be 1000 USD much faster than 12.6 years.

[dakiller]

A graph I drew a few days ago, take whatever you want from it.



Open image in new tab to get full size

[dataphile]

In technical analysis, people stare at charts and look for patterns. They come up with weird things like dead-cat-bounce and weird tools like candlesticks. I never trust them for more than a cursory sorting of stocks.

This.

I wouldn't trust any TA without a confidence interval, a log-likelihood, classifier accuracy, or anything of the like. I ESPECIALLY wouldn't trust an analysis (or a speculator) that claims they do not need statistics.

Doesn't matter if you're using Morse wavelets or drawing triangles if all you do is look at the margin and cherry pick.

[arepo]

A graph I drew a few days ago, take whatever you want from it.



Open image in new tab to get full size

we're actually hovering a bit above that lower trendline right now. my analysis has come to similar conclusions, the lower trendline could remain intact.

--arepo

[afbitcoins]

Bitcoin is increasing logarithmically, the real trendline should be plotted on a log scale.

[phoenix1]

Is the OP really implying that a linear model is the most accurate price model?

lmao.

It is ... you see it everywhere in nature ... straight lines ... slight curvature ... nothing much else really  

[BIGMERVE]

Wow OP is this your first day learning how to draw a line?

[jbord39]

Is the OP really implying that a linear model is the most accurate price model?

lmao.

It is ... you see it everywhere in nature ... straight lines ... slight curvature ... nothing much else really  

Not sure if you're trolling or not.  As a scientist I would like to point out that straight lines are particularly unnatural.  Exponential, parabolic, and ESPECIALLY periodic shapes show up much more in nature, and when 'straight' lines are present they are usually not really straight but instead an approximation (for example sin(x) is approximately a straight line for very small x).

The human visual system is also incredibly good at picking out straight lines (especially parallel ones) for that very reason--they signify something unnatural created by humans (which when humans were evolving was a very important thing to notice).  If you are skeptical see Steven Pinker's 'How the Mind Works'.

[phoenix1]

Is the OP really implying that a linear model is the most accurate price model?

lmao.

It is ... you see it everywhere in nature ... straight lines ... slight curvature ... nothing much else really  

Not sure if you're trolling or not.  As a scientist I would like to point out that straight lines are particularly unnatural.  Exponential, parabolic, and ESPECIALLY periodic shapes show up much more in nature, and when 'straight' lines are present they are usually not really straight but instead an approximation (for example sin(x) is approximately a straight line for very small x).

The human visual system is also incredibly good at picking out straight lines (especially parallel ones) for that very reason--they signify something unnatural created by humans (which when humans were evolving was a very important thing to notice).  If you are skeptical see Steven Pinker's 'How the Mind Works'.

I was being sarcastic ... hence the 'roll eyes' . Not trolling though (I don't think !)
Interesting  info about our ability to pick out straight lines ... not heard that one before

[dancupid]

This is the trend line I like:



50 day exponential moving average.
With this I can extrapolate to $60,000 bitcoins in the next 6 months.

[pera]

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

So, looks like I'm a TA expert now.. I will start a blog!

[GraphicImpulse]

It's getting sad; the total lack of moderation now on these forums.

Trolls spamming like crazy. NKSpace 1 new useless trollbear post per day. How is this not spam??

[telemaco]

oh come on, don't be so serious, op was obviously joking ...

am i wrong?