Bitcoin Forum

This is the down trend we're in just now, looking for support at $100 give or take.

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/20130502-1-month-log-chart.png?w=650

(chart taken from a bit earlier today, 1 month log chart)

Guess we'll know shortly.

And as I typed, the $100 wall halved. :D

Godspeed

Lol

And the walls came down .. all the way to hell :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReQsRgQXgQY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReQsRgQXgQY)

yeah, about that OP.....

It si below 100 USD :(.

Yes, so much for that theory

All graphs predicting the future are drawn with the author's bias in mind.  Where the period of comparison starts and stops is purely up to the individual.  I bet someone will soon post a graph showing that we're still in a massive once-in-a-lifetime bull market by simply starting the graph a little earlier.

But it will never cross the $95 line!  
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkzWyOaS8kU

I thought everyone knew that. I was mistaken.

Market depth appears to be shifting to bullish.
(opinion: as with everything else on this forum section is worth the price you pay for it.)

Weathering the storm, waiting for the people to rally. Waiting for the right time to strike. I refuse to lose this game.

Weapons not food, not homes, not shoes
Not need, just feed the war cannibal animal
I walk tha corner to tha rubble that used to be a library
Line up to tha mind cemetary now
What we don't know keeps tha contracts alive an movin'
They don't gotta burn tha books they just remove 'em
While arms warehouses fill as quick as tha cells
Rally round tha family, pockets full of shells

Come wit it now!
Bulls on parade!  ;D ;D ;D
Bulls on parade!
Bulls on parade!
Bulls on parade!
Bulls on parade!
Bulls on parade!

Perfect reversion to the 2013 exponential trendline at $100, with of course a little overcorrection to $95.

 :D  :D  :D
You know the rules and so do I...
A full commitment's what I'm thinking of...
You wouldn't get this from any other guy...
I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling...
Gotta make you understand...

NEVER GONNA GIVE YOU UP

yup! going up all the way... no trolls gonna bring us down!

bull trap at 106. sad i want to have my coins worth 500. not going to happen.....ten years from now we will be like oh you remember nintendo 64?...er i mean btc. they were fun. those were the good days.

so much for believing in this thing and remaining positive, eh?

I'm glad you can extrapolate the next 10 years of BTC price valuation from a single price point @ $106.

Whats your point? On my blog I often draw lines going back earlier and state my long term bullishness.  I was using this line to make a specific prediction. A bounce at $100


Anyway we got a bounce a shade lower than I predicted but not much. (And I did say $100 'give or take' in my initial post)

 8)

I've heard that comparison before, though I'm not sure who by.  In 10 years time bitcoins might very well be still around a bit like how email is still around.

what points are you using to define this channel? top line seems to have two, but bottom line only has one, unless you can argue for the significance of the top of that bull trap.

lines on the chart does not matter. Real TA will asks WHY ? ... when/then solve problem "WHY" then can suggest "SOLUTION". Lines will not solve "WTF" is going.

I'm not yet really sure about the  positions of the lines but I think I may have nailed the slope of the trend pretty well. I first defined it in an image i shared on one of your threads in which the channel was shown shaded red, fighting an almost equal channel shaded green. It is also defined by the way it caused resistance when the price was under it as much as the behaviour since the price went inside

Been playing around with the fit of the lines and come up with this, which is a bit modified from the chart I posted earlier. Hopefully it shows pretty clearly why I think the slope is how it is.

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/20130502-1-month-log-chart1.png?w=650

Oh.
Mah.
Gawd.

/thread

no!?!?!?! how could you say that!

this is legitimate Technical Analysis!

rofl

fitty, i know this seems ridiculous to you, but this is worth man than you think. try to be more constructive :P

and thanks for answering my question, that was exactly it, afb. these look pretty robust and there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.

You learn quickly. ;D

OP: Should bounce off from about $100.

Bouncing up or down i understand.
But what does bouncing off mean??

It means we go there and it acts as a resistance, pushing the price down. It just happened now, by the way.

I'm hoping it will fall a bit more so I can scoop up some more cheap btc :-)

Heres a rough chart that I just made to update the down trend I've been looking at. Lines are drawn in pretty roughly, only one I'm confident with is top one. I think we'll have price decline down off $130 level, if we reach that high.
 
Its another 1 month log chart

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/20130505-1-month-log-chart.png?w=650



Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much.  If you don't like it go to another forum.

no problem :) and fully agreed.

what's interesting is that your top channel line perfectly matches a short-term call i just determined from my analysis today -- on the daily scale we're forming a bearish wedge (http://s4.postimg.org/4lgythj5p/wedge.png) whose close coincides with the price touching the top of the channel you outlined. i'm expecting a downward breakout from this model, which is consistent with bouncing off of the upper moving resistance in your model.

coming to the same conclusion from two different approaches is some of the best evidence for the validity of TA.

1. zoom out to a longer term of the bitcoin price.

2. Use that chart to look at both bull and bear scenarios.

3. Stop always thinking like a bear/bull and think like a profiteer.  :P

So, what does it take to invalidate this? If we go through $125 and stay there for for than 2 candles (4 hours)?

And will that have all the TA believers piling into the market then?

Be ready with your fiat guys...

Shouldn't the conclusion being verified as accurate be a defining step for validation of evidence of TA?

I mean you could have 1000 approaches all conclude the same things but if it doesn't materialize in reality what good is it?

Arepo, I like your approach to TA, you're one of the few that admitted to making bad calls before the run-up in the last 3 months.  You claimed you changed your model to hopefully more accurately predict price movements going forward.  Have you been seeing more success lately than before?  Are you tracking profitability of predictions you make?  Seems to me they should have to beat random walk as well as Beta returns over time to be considered worth anything right?

Overall I'm not convinced TA is ever that effective.  I don't know that it isn't, but I just haven't seen much to verify that it can be.  I could go back and match up your predictions with history but I'm lazy and trust you to a certain extent to be reasonably objective about your performance considering you seem willing to admit when you're wrong.

As a side note part of me is hoping you are right about dipping down in near term, guess we'll find out soon one way or the other.

Resistance is being tested right now.

If it goes through that would be a bullish sign, I'm expecting it won't and price will dip. This is only guessing based on lines of support and resistance, often support fails or resistance fails, that doesn't mean the analysis was invalid only that the market is taking on new behaviour. This sort of thing is impossible to predict with certainty.

If, and only IF they then predict the correct outcome in more than 50% of the cases.
Otherwise it's just correlated junk.

Yeah certainty is clearly never an option.

I'll keep an eye on the resistance lines you and a few others draw more closely.

Thanks.

Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well.  How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?

Not an expert by anymeans but generally speaking the pattern is "over" once the upper/lower resistance levels are broken.  Notice how the lines are angled and indicate (in this case) a downtrend?  The idea is that the price will stay within those bounds during the downtrend.  Resistance levels adjusted as time goes on. 

Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators.  The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.

I find it helps to think of price changes in % to keep things in perspective and to steady your hand a bit.  OMG it went up $10... well that is less then 10%... do you JUMP on a 10% must not miss sale or a 30%?  This view helps me from not panicking as much.

Thanks for the explanation, makes sense and confirms what I assumed, also good advice about the % vs $ outlook and I'm sure that's why some like to use log charts. 

I guess I should have worded my question better.  I was wondering how long he thought the trend would remain unbroken.  The range between his top and bottom line (would this be called the channel?) is so large that on a small time scale it's quite likely the price will not break either line.

You say the price should stay within those bounds during the downtrend, but any idea how long the trend is suspected to last?

Are there other TA methods to determine this within some range of likelihood?

Heres my latest chart which is 3 months, on a log price scale

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/20130508-3-month-log-chart.png


I'm modified my thinking in terms of a closing wedge rather than a down channel now. The red line is the top line of the down trend channel I've been drawing on charts in this thread. Down trend is about to meet long term support (you have to look at a chart going back to 2011 to see where  the green line comes from!

If we assume this wedge is valid for the sake of argument. Which way will it break ?  ???

If this is true then it realy sucks.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.

Maybe it escaped your attention, but the proponents of TA rarely ever include any error boundaries when they publish any numbers.
I think, overall TA would be much more credibly and way less controversial if we'd acquire the habit to publish an error guess alongside with every number.

e.g "if the rate breaks through the support at $80 +-15% for more than 1+-5 days we'll be in a real downtrend"

It most certainly did not and i fully agree with what you say here.

So, it went up.

all the quasi TA should just go cry in the corner they will be more wrong than right

The 10%... this was just a nice round number...  In almost any other investment especially short term, it is a large (HUGE) margin, my thoughtlessness for sure.  You are completely right about error margins and accuracy with those numbers (especially lately with such tight ranges), though the general idea is still pretty sound.  Some that post TA which I have followed generally have the pattern predicted right but the levels are long/short a bit.  This just requires a bit of patience and a bit of knowledge to identify how much time you may have to make a decision.

$100 will trigger a whole load of buys and reverse any trend. Psychologically the $100 is an important crossing point.

No it is not sound. If someone would have acted on this idea they would have lost their money.
That is the opposite of sound.


Now i'm not saying that proper TA cannot give insights, but drawing a few lines is just gambling.

This down trend is so last week! Please read about the developing up trend here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=204958.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=204958.0)