Down trend --- old thread

[afbitcoins]

bull trap at 106. sad i want to have my coins worth 500. not going to happen.....ten years from now we will be like oh you remember nintendo 64?...er i mean btc. they were fun. those were the good days.

I've heard that comparison before, though I'm not sure who by.  In 10 years time bitcoins might very well be still around a bit like how email is still around.

[arepo]

This is the down trend we're in just now, looking for support at $100 give or take.



(chart taken from a bit earlier today, 1 month log chart)

what points are you using to define this channel? top line seems to have two, but bottom line only has one, unless you can argue for the significance of the top of that bull trap.

[Odalv]

lines on the chart does not matter. Real TA will asks WHY ? ... when/then solve problem "WHY" then can suggest "SOLUTION". Lines will not solve "WTF" is going.

[afbitcoins]

what points are you using to define this channel? top line seems to have two, but bottom line only has one, unless you can argue for the significance of the top of that bull trap.

I'm not yet really sure about the  positions of the lines but I think I may have nailed the slope of the trend pretty well. I first defined it in an image i shared on one of your threads in which the channel was shown shaded red, fighting an almost equal channel shaded green. It is also defined by the way it caused resistance when the price was under it as much as the behaviour since the price went inside

[afbitcoins]

Been playing around with the fit of the lines and come up with this, which is a bit modified from the chart I posted earlier. Hopefully it shows pretty clearly why I think the slope is how it is.

[fitty]

Been playing around with the fit of the lines and come up with this, which is a bit modified from the chart I posted earlier. Hopefully it shows pretty clearly why I think the slope is how it is.

Oh.
Mah.
Gawd.

/thread

[johnblaze]

All graphs predicting the future are drawn with the author's bias in mind.  Where the period of comparison starts and stops is purely up to the individual.  I bet someone will soon post a graph showing that we're still in a massive once-in-a-lifetime bull market by simply starting the graph a little earlier.

no!?!?!?! how could you say that!

this is legitimate Technical Analysis!

rofl

[arepo]

Been playing around with the fit of the lines and come up with this, which is a bit modified from the chart I posted earlier. Hopefully it shows pretty clearly why I think the slope is how it is.

Oh.
Mah.
Gawd.

/thread

fitty, i know this seems ridiculous to you, but this is worth man than you think. try to be more constructive

and thanks for answering my question, that was exactly it, afb. these look pretty robust and there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.

[N12]

there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.

You learn quickly.

OP: Should bounce off from about $100.

[mobodick]

there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.

You learn quickly.

OP: Should bounce off from about $100.

Bouncing up or down i understand.
But what does bouncing off mean??

[N12]

It means we go there and it acts as a resistance, pushing the price down. It just happened now, by the way.

[Stunna]

I'm hoping it will fall a bit more so I can scoop up some more cheap btc :-)

[afbitcoins]

Heres a rough chart that I just made to update the down trend I've been looking at. Lines are drawn in pretty roughly, only one I'm confident with is top one. I think we'll have price decline down off $130 level, if we reach that high.
 
Its another 1 month log chart

Oh.
Mah.
Gawd.

/thread

fitty, i know this seems ridiculous to you, but this is worth man than you think. try to be more constructive

and thanks for answering my question, that was exactly it, afb. these look pretty robust and there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.

Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much.  If you don't like it go to another forum.

[arepo]

Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much.  If you don't like it go to another forum.

no problem and fully agreed.

what's interesting is that your top channel line perfectly matches a short-term call i just determined from my analysis today -- on the daily scale we're forming a bearish wedge whose close coincides with the price touching the top of the channel you outlined. i'm expecting a downward breakout from this model, which is consistent with bouncing off of the upper moving resistance in your model.

coming to the same conclusion from two different approaches is some of the best evidence for the validity of TA.

[smoothie]

1. zoom out to a longer term of the bitcoin price.

2. Use that chart to look at both bull and bear scenarios.

3. Stop always thinking like a bear/bull and think like a profiteer. 

[BitPirate]

Heres a rough chart that I just made to update the down trend I've been looking at. Lines are drawn in pretty roughly, only one I'm confident with is top one. I think we'll have price decline down off $130 level, if we reach that high.
 
Its another 1 month log chart

Oh.
Mah.
Gawd.

/thread

fitty, i know this seems ridiculous to you, but this is worth man than you think. try to be more constructive

and thanks for answering my question, that was exactly it, afb. these look pretty robust and there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.

Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much.  If you don't like it go to another forum.

So, what does it take to invalidate this? If we go through $125 and stay there for for than 2 candles (4 hours)?

And will that have all the TA believers piling into the market then?

Be ready with your fiat guys...

[amencon]

coming to the same conclusion from two different approaches is some of the best evidence for the validity of TA.

Shouldn't the conclusion being verified as accurate be a defining step for validation of evidence of TA?

I mean you could have 1000 approaches all conclude the same things but if it doesn't materialize in reality what good is it?

Arepo, I like your approach to TA, you're one of the few that admitted to making bad calls before the run-up in the last 3 months.  You claimed you changed your model to hopefully more accurately predict price movements going forward.  Have you been seeing more success lately than before?  Are you tracking profitability of predictions you make?  Seems to me they should have to beat random walk as well as Beta returns over time to be considered worth anything right?

Overall I'm not convinced TA is ever that effective.  I don't know that it isn't, but I just haven't seen much to verify that it can be.  I could go back and match up your predictions with history but I'm lazy and trust you to a certain extent to be reasonably objective about your performance considering you seem willing to admit when you're wrong.

As a side note part of me is hoping you are right about dipping down in near term, guess we'll find out soon one way or the other.

[afbitcoins]

Resistance is being tested right now.

If it goes through that would be a bullish sign, I'm expecting it won't and price will dip. This is only guessing based on lines of support and resistance, often support fails or resistance fails, that doesn't mean the analysis was invalid only that the market is taking on new behaviour. This sort of thing is impossible to predict with certainty.

[mobodick]

Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much.  If you don't like it go to another forum.

no problem and fully agreed.

what's interesting is that your top channel line perfectly matches a short-term call i just determined from my analysis today -- on the daily scale we're forming a bearish wedge whose close coincides with the price touching the top of the channel you outlined. i'm expecting a downward breakout from this model, which is consistent with bouncing off of the upper moving resistance in your model.

coming to the same conclusion from two different approaches is some of the best evidence for the validity of TA.

If, and only IF they then predict the correct outcome in more than 50% of the cases.
Otherwise it's just correlated junk.

[amencon]

Resistance is being tested right now.

If it goes through that would be a bullish sign, I'm expecting it won't and price will dip. This is only guessing based on lines of support and resistance, often support fails or resistance fails, that doesn't mean the analysis was invalid only that the market is taking on new behaviour. This sort of thing is impossible to predict with certainty.

Yeah certainty is clearly never an option.

I'll keep an eye on the resistance lines you and a few others draw more closely.

Thanks.