Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Inedible on May 04, 2013, 06:55:50 PM



Title: China : The next price bump
Post by: Inedible on May 04, 2013, 06:55:50 PM
After the CCTV (Chinese TV station) broadcast their Bitcoin documentary, I believe the price will rise to approximately $150 within the next 10 days.

The price rise won't come into effect till end of next week as it'll take time for people to read and understand about Bitcoin before putting money into the system. Putting money into the system will take time too.

Despite the number of users signing up from China, the volume of each user will be lower due to lower incomes.

See you at the top...

Edit: The reason why I don't think there will be a massive increase in price is because the people that bought near the top of the last spike will be looking to exit and might just be looking to limit their losses.



Some Fun

For China is a country that will bring us to our knees.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58mE7Vy1Xrc

Or if that's blocked in your country, try this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikOvrPmsYDw (this one was performed infront of the Queen of England)


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 06:58:53 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.

Did you actually read the translation of the CCTV piece? It's not exactly what I would call "bullish".
In fact they even conclude that it's a bubble at the end.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Crazy on May 04, 2013, 07:03:37 PM
This China hype machine is roaring now.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:07:57 PM
This China hype machine is roaring now.

Bulls grasping yet another straw.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Frozenlock on May 04, 2013, 07:08:49 PM
How does that work? I win if I take the longest, right?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:10:39 PM
How does that work? I win if I take the longest, right?

I think so.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Birdy on May 04, 2013, 07:13:16 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.
Even if all they do is gamble, they need to buy in first to start gambling.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:14:49 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.
Even if all they do is gamble, they need to buy in first to start gambling.

They already have.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitcon on May 04, 2013, 07:14:54 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.

Did you actually read the translation of the CCTV piece? It's not exactly what I would call "bullish".
In fact they even conclude that it's a bubble at the end.


i read this, and i call it bullish  ;D

cheers

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1dosc3/im_a_chinese_born_us_citizen_heres_what_i_thought/


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Frozenlock on May 04, 2013, 07:15:00 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.
Even if all they do is gamble, they need to buy in first to start gambling.

No, they can short.  ;)


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Birdy on May 04, 2013, 07:15:21 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.
Even if all they do is gamble, they need to buy in first to start gambling.

They already have.
Why do they need to download the clients then?

Quote
No, they can short.  Wink
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

Okey they could bet without buying something, but that wouldn't influence the BTC price at all and they wouldn't need to download clients for that.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:17:48 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.
Even if all they do is gamble, they need to buy in first to start gambling.

They already have.
Why do they need to download the clients then?

Seeing what this curiosity is all about. What this does is helping to establish a bottom, not make the prices rise.
People who are downloading the client are far from buying coins.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Frozenlock on May 04, 2013, 07:18:07 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Frozenlock on May 04, 2013, 07:18:50 PM
Why do they need to download the clients then?

To make me rageclose mine after busting my upload limit?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitcon on May 04, 2013, 07:21:26 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:22:10 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitcon on May 04, 2013, 07:26:37 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

proof?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitleif on May 04, 2013, 07:28:16 PM
I suspect this is going to be another buy the rumor sell the news event.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:30:50 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

proof?

Not exactly. You can't prove this either way, but you can use common sense.
They are reporting on Chinese already involved in BTC and their stories, plus a little bit of what goes on overseas.

I suggest you also look at the client downloads and node statistics from way back.
What also helps is look through the descriptions of the process a potential Bitcoin user goes through, you can also remember your own... As I said downloading the client is a far way from buying coins.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitcon on May 04, 2013, 07:37:50 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

proof?

Not exactly. You can't prove this either way, but you can use common sense.
They are reporting on Chinese already involved in BTC and their stories, plus a little bit of what goes on overseas.

I suggest you also look at the client downloads and node statistics from way back.
What also helps is look through the descriptions of the process a potential Bitcoin user goes through, you can also remember your own... As I said downloading the client is a far way from buying coins.


whats more relevant are the client DL stats from today that have it up from 10k to 30k and the top country being China with 42% of all downloads.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:42:03 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

proof?

Not exactly. You can't prove this either way, but you can use common sense.
They are reporting on Chinese already involved in BTC and their stories, plus a little bit of what goes on overseas.

I suggest you also look at the client downloads and node statistics from way back.
What also helps is look through the descriptions of the process a potential Bitcoin user goes through, you can also remember your own... As I said downloading the client is a far way from buying coins.


whats more relevant are the client DL stats from today that have it up from 10k to 30k and the top country being China with 42% of all downloads.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline

Nice tunnel vision you have there.
http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline?dates=2008-11-09+to+2013-05-04


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitcon on May 04, 2013, 07:46:13 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

proof?

Not exactly. You can't prove this either way, but you can use common sense.
They are reporting on Chinese already involved in BTC and their stories, plus a little bit of what goes on overseas.

I suggest you also look at the client downloads and node statistics from way back.
What also helps is look through the descriptions of the process a potential Bitcoin user goes through, you can also remember your own... As I said downloading the client is a far way from buying coins.


whats more relevant are the client DL stats from today that have it up from 10k to 30k and the top country being China with 42% of all downloads.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline

Nice tunnel vision you have there.
http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline?dates=2008-11-09+to+2013-05-04

my stats are the ones that coincide with the China CCTV news. try harder.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:47:28 PM

my stats are the ones that coincide with the China CCTV news. try harder.

These are the same stats on an all time graph, there is nothing to "try" I'm just showing you the facts.
You can also look at this picture, china is represented correctly as place 2.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2008-11-09%20to%202013-05-04


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: kooke on May 04, 2013, 07:50:34 PM
All this talk about China being a price bump is temporary. Once the hosh posh wears off in a few hours/days, the price will be back to $80 or lower.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: anu on May 04, 2013, 07:52:29 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.
Even if all they do is gamble, they need to buy in first to start gambling.

They already have.

All of them?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:53:24 PM
China was in on it on the way to 266. It's the gambling culture over there that's interested, buy low sell high... they are in it for the extra yuan.
Even if all they do is gamble, they need to buy in first to start gambling.

They already have.

All of them?

I guess you ask them.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitcon on May 04, 2013, 07:56:09 PM
the sourcefourge DL graph isn't the "end all, be all" gauge" to predict Bitcoin investors/price anyways. Because:

1. You don't need the client to be an investor.

2. there are other sources to obtain the client.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 07:57:41 PM
the sourcefourge DL graph isn't the "end all, be all" gauge" to predict Bitcoin investors/price anyways. Because:

1. You don't need the client to be an investor.

2. there are other sources to obtain the client.

True, but it was you who brought that up.
You're back-peddling.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitcon on May 04, 2013, 08:01:39 PM
the sourcefourge DL graph isn't the "end all, be all" gauge" to predict Bitcoin investors/price anyways. Because:

1. You don't need the client to be an investor.

2. there are other sources to obtain the client.

True, but it was you who brought that up.
You're back-peddling.


no, i believe it was you who brought it up in post #19.  may i refresh your memory?  here:

ElectricMocos:

"I suggest you also look at the client downloads and node statistics from way back.
What also helps is look through the descriptions of the process a potential Bitcoin user goes through, you can also remember your own... As I said downloading the client is a far way from buying coins."


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 08:06:39 PM
You are the one who posted the tunnel vision snapshot of recent downloads. I am sorry you bulls look so alike, so that was the response to someone else. Could have been you.


All in all this whole thing is ridiculous. The time when a single TV special causes people to freak out was when we were in the lower single digits.
Now that we have seen press coverage on an almost daily basis this is something of a minor curiosity. In fact that current prices are remotely sustainable pretty much requires a continuation. And if that stops, run...


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Geist on May 04, 2013, 08:08:58 PM
All this talk about China being a price bump is temporary. Once the hosh posh wears off in a few hours/days, the price will be back to $80 or lower.
I very much doubt it. The fear of yesterday is nothing compared to the greed of the population of the 3rd largest economy in the world. And it will make everyone else in the world greedy. I'm guessing we'll see a massive rally come Tuesday.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: DavidBAL on May 04, 2013, 08:09:57 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

Have you ever even been to China before? Obviously not or you'd realize how ignorant/stupid that comment was. BTC is relatively nonexistent in China, I would bet by per capita measures USA is easily serval multiples higher in terms of exposure and awareness to bitcoin


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Inedible on May 04, 2013, 08:10:15 PM
I still think there'll be new money coming in. I just don't think it'll be huge. That's why I reckon $150 will be the ceiling on this one before a fall back down to $130 by middle/end of the month.

Why so much rage with everyone? Is everyone on hormones/steroids or something?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: humanitee on May 04, 2013, 08:15:01 PM
I still think there'll be new money coming in. I just don't think it'll be huge. That's why I reckon $150 will be the ceiling on this one before a fall back down to $130 by middle/end of the month.

Why so much rage with everyone? Is everyone on hormones/steroids or something?

Mucus is a troll. Also, emotions run wild when positions fail.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 08:15:05 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

Have you ever even been to China before? Obviously not or you'd realize how ignorant/stupid that comment was. BTC is relatively nonexistent in China, I would bet by per capita measures USA is easily serval multiples higher in terms of exposure and awareness to bitcoin

Have you?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: wobber on May 04, 2013, 08:19:16 PM
I think this summer will be mindblowing...

All the mainstream media news, Cyprus bank issues (remember Cyprus is just a little island)

:)


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: DavidBAL on May 04, 2013, 08:22:47 PM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

Have you ever even been to China before? Obviously not or you'd realize how ignorant/stupid that comment was. BTC is relatively nonexistent in China, I would bet by per capita measures USA is easily serval multiples higher in terms of exposure and awareness to bitcoin

Have you?

Yes I did business there for close to 6 months. My mandarin is meh. Please don't act like an expert when you're talking about something you have no clue about. Further more, as far as your wallet comment about how China's increase in adoption is insignificant:

Since 2008 240,000 download

140,000 of them happened in 2013

93,000 of them happened since March

76,000 of them happened since April

36,000 of them happened in May

23,000 of them happened in the last 12 hours...

So STFU! haha sorry but seriously.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 08:25:46 PM
Yes I did business there for close to 6 months.
So STFU! haha sorry but seriously.


You are posting from an unknown forum account with 25 posts.
Am I supposed to take your word for that?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Frozenlock on May 04, 2013, 08:26:33 PM
Gentlemen, stop it, we all know that my penis is the biggest anyway.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 08:27:13 PM
Gentlemen, stop it, we all that my penis is the biggest anyway.
ok then
pics or it didn't happen :P


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Inedible on May 04, 2013, 08:27:24 PM
I remember reading a post a while ago where someone said x-amount of monies were coming from x-countries.

Is it actually possible to work out/see this data or was this the product of my overly-active imagination?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 04, 2013, 08:39:58 PM
I remember reading a post a while ago where someone said x-amount of monies were coming from x-countries.

Is it actually possible to work out/see this data or was this the product of my overly-active imagination?

Would be really interesting to see that if you could remember. I haven't seen that.
In principle I can't think of a method of how to get significant enough data on that.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: matt608 on May 04, 2013, 08:52:44 PM
I agree it will take a little time for the Chinese who saw the program get their money into an exchange, so maybe by the end of the week that's coming up we'll see a big rise from it.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: gogxmagog on May 04, 2013, 09:00:20 PM
I still think there'll be new money coming in. I just don't think it'll be huge. That's why I reckon $150 will be the ceiling on this one before a fall back down to $130 by middle/end of the month.

Why so much rage with everyone? Is everyone on hormones/steroids or something?

they learned their netiquette over at 4chan.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 04, 2013, 10:18:27 PM
You are the one who posted the tunnel vision snapshot of recent downloads. I am sorry you bulls look so alike, so that was the response to someone else. Could have been you.


All in all this whole thing is ridiculous. The time when a single TV special causes people to freak out was when we were in the lower single digits.
Now that we have seen press coverage on an almost daily basis this is something of a minor curiosity. In fact that current prices are remotely sustainable pretty much requires a continuation. And if that stops, run...

It is huge, actually it is beyond huge...we're talking ginormous. This is not any single TV special, it is a half hour on China's state television channel. It is already and will continue to spark a frenzy of interest in China. But more importantly it is about the the Chinese government tacitly approving of Bitcoin. The Chinese government is immensely powerful, it means that if Western governments try to ban Bitcoin, it will still have a user base in China.

The Chinese love gambling and they love saving, and Bitcoin is great for both. Hence with government approval the stage is set for explosive growth. It is even possible that Bitcoin adoption in China might overshadow adoption in the US.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: noedaRDH on May 04, 2013, 10:28:48 PM
You are the one who posted the tunnel vision snapshot of recent downloads. I am sorry you bulls look so alike, so that was the response to someone else. Could have been you.


All in all this whole thing is ridiculous. The time when a single TV special causes people to freak out was when we were in the lower single digits.
Now that we have seen press coverage on an almost daily basis this is something of a minor curiosity. In fact that current prices are remotely sustainable pretty much requires a continuation. And if that stops, run...

It is huge, actually it is beyond huge...we're talking ginormous. This is not any single TV special, it is a half hour on China's state television channel. It is already and will continue to spark a frenzy of interest in China. But more importantly it is about the the Chinese government tacitly approving of Bitcoin. The Chinese government is immensely powerful, it means that if Western governments try to ban Bitcoin, it will still have a user base in China.

The Chinese love gambling and they love saving, and Bitcoin is great for both. Hence with government approval the stage is set for explosive growth. It is even possible that Bitcoin adoption in China might overshadow adoption in the US.

I think people in China, and perhaps people in Asia, are more accepting of risks. They're also very tech savvy, and are ready to learn when something new and adventurous appear on the scene. That alone makes them very ripe for the adoption and innovation of matters in the Bitcoin. So I agree, given the often "it's a scam! It's not physical! I don't want to learn!'" type of attitude you'll find the States, it's only a matter of time before China's usage of BTC's outgrows America's.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 04, 2013, 10:52:30 PM
You are the one who posted the tunnel vision snapshot of recent downloads. I am sorry you bulls look so alike, so that was the response to someone else. Could have been you.


All in all this whole thing is ridiculous. The time when a single TV special causes people to freak out was when we were in the lower single digits.
Now that we have seen press coverage on an almost daily basis this is something of a minor curiosity. In fact that current prices are remotely sustainable pretty much requires a continuation. And if that stops, run...

It is huge, actually it is beyond huge...we're talking ginormous. This is not any single TV special, it is a half hour on China's state television channel. It is already and will continue to spark a frenzy of interest in China. But more importantly it is about the the Chinese government tacitly approving of Bitcoin. The Chinese government is immensely powerful, it means that if Western governments try to ban Bitcoin, it will still have a user base in China.

The Chinese love gambling and they love saving, and Bitcoin is great for both. Hence with government approval the stage is set for explosive growth. It is even possible that Bitcoin adoption in China might overshadow adoption in the US.

I think people in China, and perhaps people in Asia, are more accepting of risks. They're also very tech savvy, and are ready to learn when something new and adventurous appear on the scene. That alone makes them very ripe for the adoption and innovation of matters in the Bitcoin. So I agree, given the often "it's a scam! It's not physical! I don't want to learn!'" type of attitude you'll find the States, it's only a matter of time before China's usage of BTC's outgrows America's.

Adding to that, there is the Asian financial crisis in the late 90s affecting mostly the ASEAN countries and then there is the fact that most Chinese alive today have seen a 25%+ inflation rate in the early 90s.

In general people in Asia are more aware of how insecure fiat really is


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Jobe7 on May 04, 2013, 11:08:27 PM
What is interesting to note is this;

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-04-01+to+2013-04-04

Now, as others said, don't take sourceforge as gospel, its just something to get an idea, to 'feel the flow'.

You can see from the states that the recent bubble doesn't seem to have any correlation with interest from China. This sudden spike is.. new/different.

Question is - will these 'spikes' continue? Will we see a sudden surge in Chinese bitcoin businesses? (tech savvy, and trust me, there's plenty of people over there who would be very happy to setup new businesses).

I don't think its going to be another 'bubble spike', because of how April doesn't correlate. But, it could turn into one IF there's nowhere for the newly interested people to spend their bitcoins. Yet mentality is very different from western style indoctrination, in that they're taught to save, westerners are taught to spend.

Maybe CCTV will do a 2nd bitcoin documentary, or blogs and other tv channels in China will follow .. or maybe they won't? Is media Bitcoin bashing over? (it seems to be mostly from the western sphere, sliding into a slight (very slight in some cases) media/journalistic understanding).

One thing I can say for sure is that it will certainly be interesting to watch.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bobdude17 on May 04, 2013, 11:14:59 PM
I don't think you all understand the gravity of what China just did.

As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bobdude17 on May 04, 2013, 11:50:14 PM
Satoshi made Bitcoin  >  The miners made it a community  >  The spectators made it a market  >  The media made it a bubble  >  The venture capitalists made it an industry  >  China has just made it a threat.














(in the eyes of the US government)


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: internationalaw on May 05, 2013, 12:00:58 AM
Sources for so-called "close door" meetings right now? or is that just your opinion?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bobdude17 on May 05, 2013, 12:09:30 AM
The US and China have been in a military, economical, idealogical, and technological Cold War for a while now. They watch each other's every move, and every action has meaning. I don't have inside information but I know the level of detail the government pays attention to and reacts to. Trust me, there are meetings happening right now.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 05, 2013, 12:13:35 AM
As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

Indeed this is very likely. I can't say I'm shedding any tears for the crumbling of the American hegemony though. The only thing is that it's not like Washington can do anything about it, except start another war...and that worries me.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 05, 2013, 12:16:49 AM
Sources for so-called "close door" meetings right now? or is that just your opinion?

There will be no sources for closed door meetings. But you can infer that they are happening from the geopolitical magnitude of China's move.

It is another attack at USD world reserve status from China after they started buying oil denominated in other currencies than USD from Iran.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bobdude17 on May 05, 2013, 12:47:43 AM
Indeed this is very likely. I can't say I'm shedding any tears for the crumbling of the American hegemony though.

I agree. I love my country, but my country and my country's military industrial complex empire are two different things.

Quote from: jinni
It is another attack at USD world reserve status from China after they started buying oil denominated in other currencies than USD from Iran.

Exactly. But I think this is far bigger than even the Iranian oil action.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Malawi on May 05, 2013, 12:49:26 AM
I don't think you all understand the gravity of what China just did.

As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

I imagine Obama is rallying all his ministers right now, waking them up if necessary and having a long meeting where he demands answers!

His first will be something like "Forget North Korea and that shit, I hear Bitcoin have been at Chinese TV - WTF WTF WTF???"
"How can we deal with the imminent crisis connected to a virtual currency that has a value compared to 1% of Siemens annual revenue?"
"Is Siemens behind this????"
"I WANT ANSWERS..... NOW!"

Followed by more WTF and distressed mumbling.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: hlynur on May 05, 2013, 01:03:24 AM
Perhaps I'm wrong and just a bit too excited about this CCNTV documentary.
But I can't get the numbers out of my brain:

China means rougly 200 to 350 millions (didn't find exact numbers on the net)  of people representing the educated social class (potential buyers would come from this part of society in first place).
Surely other countries were in bitcoin from the beginning and China just got the first big wakeup call concerning media.
E.g. i live in germany and i just stumbled upon some tv reports not longer than 15 min. (widely positive comments as i can think of)

Now if you imagine a state-controlled tv station watched by a wide audience bringing a 30min report showing it in a positive way,
that is a f**ing huge media push.

i don't know if my evaluation is wrong but I just think of bitcoin beginning to spread in a class of chinese society that represents nearly the whole population of USA.
It makes sense in a kind of way for a country being the biggest exporter of goods in the world looking out for new possiblities of financial transactions.

Are there some people from china or with any chinese relation on the forum who can give some feedback and thoughts about this?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: xorglub on May 05, 2013, 01:06:34 AM
Food for thought : http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1dosc3/im_a_chinese_born_us_citizen_heres_what_i_thought/


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 05, 2013, 01:07:37 AM
Indeed this is very likely. I can't say I'm shedding any tears for the crumbling of the American hegemony though.

I agree. I love my country, but my country and my country's military industrial complex empire are two different things.

Spot on. Even though the US is a democracy I wouldn't dream of blaming the American people for being duped into war-mongering. That is simply a result of mass-manipulation by an increasingly small elite. Someone once said that if every American had actually personally known an Iranian then there would be no enmity towards Iran, and I think this is true because as far as I understand the people of both countries have a culture of being extremely friendly and curious about foreigners. It simply is too bad people are so easily scared into submission.

Quote from: bobdude17
I think this is far bigger than even the Iranian oil action.

I agree in the sense that it is a long-term fundamental shift, but in terms of actual dollars right now the oil thing is much bigger, and will be for quite some time.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Stunna on May 05, 2013, 01:10:25 AM
Another 1.3 + Billion potential users is definitely something for all bitcoin owners to be happy about!


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 05, 2013, 01:23:18 AM
As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

Indeed this is very likely. I can't say I'm shedding any tears for the crumbling of the American hegemony though. The only thing is that it's not like Washington can do anything about it, except start another war...and that worries me.

You guys are getting ahead of yourselves again.

Bitcoin isn't perceived as a threat by any goverment nor is it considered something worthwhile of attention. That is the reason it was on Chinese TV in the first place.
It may "change the world", not in the way your Libertarian romantics tell you but more subtle, "under the radar" - in your terms.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: simonk83 on May 05, 2013, 01:24:29 AM
Yes, but those sites need to buy Bitcoins,too.

As ElectricMucus said, they already have.


so everyone in China already knew about bitcoin before this CCTV event?  ::)  LOL.

Everyone that matters at this point.

Dude, I get that it's your thing on here to be a bear all the time, but that is utterly ridiculous.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 05, 2013, 01:25:31 AM
Please stop nit-picking one point of an ongoing discussion.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: simonk83 on May 05, 2013, 01:28:59 AM
Please stop nit-picking one point of an ongoing discussion.

I just started reading the thread, and this is the daftest of the comments you'd posted so far (most of which were just slightly less daft).  I'll probably hit plenty more before I get to the end, but to be honest you never have anything of value to say, rather just relying on bear nonsense whenever anyone dares to post positive or bullish signs.   Now I see why your ignore button is so dark, and allow me to contribute to that.

Good riddance.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ElectricMucus on May 05, 2013, 01:31:51 AM
you are the third guy who picks this particular post out of context.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: hlynur on May 05, 2013, 02:17:47 AM
quote mt.gox wall observer:
$117 with many big buys. its 10AM sunday in hong kong. are we sure this action is from the CCTV news piece?

News will backfire. Btcchina sucks, it's a small exchange for pocket change. Withdraw from there is limited to 10 BTC per day.


that's good to know. still tv report is a very bullish sign for development of bitcoin in china


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Faraday on May 05, 2013, 03:13:01 AM
you are the third guy who picks this particular post out of context.

In what way was it out of context? Do you know what that means? He quoted the 3 posts before yours..

Why are you such a bear anyway, did you sell all your bitcoins?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: BitcoinAshley on May 05, 2013, 03:20:25 AM
Quote from: ElectricMucus
The time when a single TV special causes people to freak out was when we were in the lower single digits.
Now that we have seen press coverage on an almost daily basis this is something of a minor curiosity.


I agree. After the level of media saturation we've seen, I certainly would not be grasping at one single media event as a game-changer.

However, let's not underestimate:
-The possibility that many Chinese may now decide to invest a little in bitcoin - and let's not pass it off by assuming that because a handful of wealthy Chinese elite and basement nerds already know about it, potentially thousands of middle-class folk who didn't already know about it couldn't affect the price at all.
-The fact that the Chinese middle class may be looking for a new investment - classically, they invest in real estate, but that's not looking like such a sweet deal anymore... mom and dad are discovering that the 18-24 generation doesn't want to buy at the top of a bubble and their retirement isn't as safe as they once thought. The slightly more radical among them may decide to throw one of their 12 ghost city condos into cryptocoins.
-Many Chinese people have directly experienced massive inflation
-The political implications. CCP doesn't take its state-run TV channel censorship lightly. Is this a jab at the Western PTB? Not as much as bobdude17 thinks, but let's not completely dismiss this possibility.
-Saying that governments/banks don't see bitcoin as a threat is pretty silly. Sure, they can pass it off for now since its market cap is 1% of some big company, but it's not hard to see that a P2P cryptocurrency that solves the double-spending problem has some pretty hard-hitting potential. Historically, truly revolutionary technology has always been suppressed in favor of pseudo-revolutionary technology that encourages exponentially rising consumption and therefore money-printing (Tesla?) 

I think we have some people overestimating the political implications and the potential adoption bump. On the other hand we have people underestimating the political implications and potential adoption bump. Nothing unusual here. Try to temper y'alls reaction yet don't dismiss obvious possibilities. This is an interesting world that we live in.

Hey, and stop picking on electricmucus, guys ;D


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Beta-coiner1 on May 05, 2013, 03:39:33 AM
I don't know guys.The rally could be real,especially if you look at Google trends (https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&geo=CN&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q) it seems to be indicating interest specifically for China has been increasing lately.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: hlynur on May 05, 2013, 03:49:35 AM
Quote from: ElectricMucus
The time when a single TV special causes people to freak out was when we were in the lower single digits.
Now that we have seen press coverage on an almost daily basis this is something of a minor curiosity.


I agree. After the level of media saturation we've seen, I certainly would not be grasping at one single media event as a game-changer.

However, let's not underestimate:
-The possibility that many Chinese may now decide to invest a little in bitcoin - and let's not pass it off by assuming that because a handful of wealthy Chinese elite and basement nerds already know about it, potentially thousands of middle-class folk who didn't already know about it couldn't affect the price at all.
-The fact that the Chinese middle class may be looking for a new investment - classically, they invest in real estate, but that's not looking like such a sweet deal anymore... mom and dad are discovering that the 18-24 generation doesn't want to buy at the top of a bubble and their retirement isn't as safe as they once thought. The slightly more radical among them may decide to throw one of their 12 ghost city condos into cryptocoins.
-Many Chinese people have directly experienced massive inflation
-The political implications. CCP doesn't take its state-run TV channel censorship lightly. Is this a jab at the Western PTB? Not as much as bobdude17 thinks, but let's not completely dismiss this possibility.
-Saying that governments/banks don't see bitcoin as a threat is pretty silly. Sure, they can pass it off for now since its market cap is 1% of some big company, but it's not hard to see that a P2P cryptocurrency that solves the double-spending problem has some pretty hard-hitting potential. Historically, truly revolutionary technology has always been suppressed in favor of pseudo-revolutionary technology that encourages exponentially rising consumption and therefore money-printing (Tesla?) 

I think we have some people overestimating the political implications and the potential adoption bump. On the other hand we have people underestimating the political implications and potential adoption bump. Nothing unusual here. Try to temper y'alls reaction yet don't dismiss obvious possibilities. This is an interesting world that we live in.

Hey, and stop picking on electricmucus, guys ;D


good arguments, only difference i see here is that you're talking about media saturation in western civilsation.
I think chinese media coverage is just beginning to catch up and market there has huge potential for cryptocurrency with all the exports, cheap energy and mining hardware directly from the source producers.
The sheer amount of population in china freaks me out if a hype is starting there.
It's remarkable that china hasn't anounced their own cryptocurrency yet and instead bitcoin gets the possibility to develop without restrictions by the government in the early stages.
Last point is perhaps the most important sign of this report on state-controlled tv.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: xorglub on May 05, 2013, 03:50:47 AM
I don't know guys.The rally could be real,especially if you look at Google trends (https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&geo=CN&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q) it seems to be indicating interest specifically for China has been increasing lately.
Good observation. The worldwide one has been steadily increasing for 4 days too !


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: arepo on May 05, 2013, 04:00:39 AM
point to good news in a bull market --> "THIS is why the price is going up!"

point to bad news in a bear market --> "THIS is why the price is going down!"

you guys are delusional.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Beta-coiner1 on May 05, 2013, 04:07:25 AM
point to good news in a bull market --> "THIS is why the price is going up!"

point to bad news in a bear market --> "THIS is why the price is going down!"

you guys are delusional.
Tell that to the current rally when the largest exchange is currently being sued for breach of contract,lol.Many here believed the last rally was due to the speculation that many within Cyprus would move to Bitcoin......now we have the second largest economy in the world having an interest over the last few days.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: arepo on May 05, 2013, 04:11:16 AM
point to good news in a bull market --> "THIS is why the price is going up!"

point to bad news in a bear market --> "THIS is why the price is going down!"

you guys are delusional.
Tell that to the current rally when the largest exchange is currently being sued for breach of contract,lol.Many here believed the last rally was due to the speculation that many within Cyprus would move to Bitcoin......now we have the second largest economy in the world having an interest over the last few days.

let me give you a hint. that had nothing to do with the rally today, except for the people who bought because they thought others would buy on said news. do you really think Cypriots were behind the bubble? or people buying on the Cyprus news, because we were already in an uptrend?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: BitPirate on May 05, 2013, 04:14:07 AM
^ In this case, I couldn't agree with you more, arepo....

Good news will come that will affect the price positively, but this seems a little like clutching at straws.



Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: tantk on May 05, 2013, 04:20:47 AM
At the end of cctv documentary, they mention ONLY IF bitcoin has no other practical usage then it will be as worthless as the tulip.
Whether bitcoin is a Ponzi or not, it depends on the motive for people buying bitcoin, Ponzi: speculators who just want quick profit from bitcoin.
Bitcoin also lack the backing of a strong financial institution to let it go more mainstream.

In short,for price to grow with less bubble, we need to have more merchants to start accepting bitcoin to increase its practical usage.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: hlynur on May 05, 2013, 04:43:32 AM
At the end of cctv documentary, they mention ONLY IF bitcoin has no other practical usage then it will be as worthless as the tulip.
Whether bitcoin is a Ponzi or not, it depends on the motive for people buying bitcoin, Ponzi: speculators who just want quick profit from bitcoin.
Bitcoin also lack the backing of a strong financial institution to let it go more mainstream.

In short,for price to grow with less bubble, we need to have more merchants to start accepting bitcoin to increase its practical usage.

do you speak mandarin or where did you get translation from that report?
Is it mentioned in the report that is has practical usage already? Is the whole feeling of report more positive like mentioned on reddit?
sure bitcoin market is too speculative right now but the more money floods in merchants want to absorb value it and will catch up.
The advantages of usage of bitcoin will overcome the money investment option over time.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ronaldlee0917 on May 05, 2013, 05:59:00 AM
At the end of cctv documentary, they mention ONLY IF bitcoin has no other practical usage then it will be as worthless as the tulip.
Whether bitcoin is a Ponzi or not, it depends on the motive for people buying bitcoin, Ponzi: speculators who just want quick profit from bitcoin.
Bitcoin also lack the backing of a strong financial institution to let it go more mainstream.

In short,for price to grow with less bubble, we need to have more merchants to start accepting bitcoin to increase its practical usage.

do you speak mandarin or where did you get translation from that report?
Is it mentioned in the report that is has practical usage already? Is the whole feeling of report more positive like mentioned on reddit?
sure bitcoin market is too speculative right now but the more money floods in merchants want to absorb value it and will catch up.
The advantages of usage of bitcoin will overcome the money investment option over time.
I speak mandarin and I am from China.
They mention both the goods and bads, it is a rather objective and informative show, surprisingly from the heavily-censored CCTV.
It mentioned the 6000% growth since Bitcoin launched, how people earn money by mining and without work, the risk of Bitcoin as a speculative, the merchants accepting Bitcoins, the potential of Bitcoin etc, and at the last, warning investors they got to analyse the risk since Bitcoin is still young and in the experimental stage afterall.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: lebing on May 05, 2013, 07:14:38 AM
I for one welcome our new overlords


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 05, 2013, 08:39:53 AM
As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

Indeed this is very likely. I can't say I'm shedding any tears for the crumbling of the American hegemony though. The only thing is that it's not like Washington can do anything about it, except start another war...and that worries me.

You guys are getting ahead of yourselves again.

Hardly. The American hegemony has been crumbling for years. People have talked about the collapse of the dollar for a long time. The US invasion of Iraq suspiciously coincides with Saddam Hussein's plans to trade oil in EUR. Are you telling me that the American government aren't seriously worried about the USD losing its status as world reserve currency?
 
Bitcoin isn't perceived as a threat by any goverment nor is it considered something worthwhile of attention.

What is your reasoning behind this? If Paypal publicly announces that Bitcoin is on their radar, why wouldn't it be on the radar of governments?


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: pheaonix on May 05, 2013, 09:07:06 AM
very interesting stuff in my opinion

nothing wrong with lots more people using bitcoin in my opinion :D


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitleif on May 05, 2013, 09:20:41 AM
Are you telling me that the American government aren't seriously worried about the USD losing its status as world reserve currency?

I don't know, according to Mish (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.no/2013/05/year-of-yaun.html) who knows a whole lot more about economics than I do, the reserve currency status is more a curse than a blessing. It prevents the US from devaluing the currency (which neo-classical economists think will increase exports). I agree with the rest of your post though, more specifically that the US is utterly dependent on cheap and US-friendly sources of oil.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: XXthetimeisnowXX on May 05, 2013, 10:35:24 AM
ok so some say that it doesnt matter that the thing aired to million and millions of people. and everyone who is gunna buy bitcoins has allready...


well i know this is a small sample size but i live in a huge city and was at a large party (about 60-80 people) outside where most were i got the currage...half drunk.....and got everyones attention. i said " ok please raise your hand if you have ever herd of bitcoin"...........I hear from the crowd.........."big loin?".... "bite coin?"...."it corn"??    " no everyone i said has enyone here herd of BITCOIN!?!? three people raised there hand. my friend who has some, my girl.... cuz i wont shut up about them....and one other person..... one! he know almost nothing about them and thought they were some kind of scam. but later i had about fifteen people surrounding me asking me about BTC and i told them what i new and told them to look it up.  THEY ALL WANTED TO INVEST


this is a small version of what is going to happen in china. a percentage .... maybe  even just one...will buy bitcoins....maybe just one..... and that mathe is 28-46m viewers one % of that is 28,000 they buy just one coin each. (this is so fucking low ball!!) and that is 28,000,000 yep 28million worth. so now i ask what are the implications of 28 mill? well lets see to go from the current state of 107- per bit we would need about 100k usd to go to 120. imagine what 28 mill ( again verry low ball) would do to it. in two weeks im calling above 200. call me crazy but i just bout more.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: GigaCoin on May 05, 2013, 10:52:38 AM
China had a virtual currency QQ coin which was very successful to the point the government crushed it. The fact the STATE run media didn't demonize bitcoin is a GOOD thing. Chinese aren't new to virtual currency speculation, if you think everyone in china is DONE buying Bitcoins, you're mistaken they're getting started. You also forget there is no proper infrastructure for the Chinese to get into bitcoins yet, once that is resolved we are in for a ride.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: amencon on May 05, 2013, 10:59:56 AM
ok so some say that it doesnt matter that the thing aired to million and millions of people. and everyone who is gunna buy bitcoins has allready...


well i know this is a small sample size but i live in a huge city and was at a large party (about 60-80 people) outside where most were i got the currage...half drunk.....and got everyones attention. i said " ok please raise your hand if you have ever herd of bitcoin"...........I hear from the crowd.........."big loin?".... "bite coin?"...."it corn"??    " no everyone i said has enyone here herd of BITCOIN!?!? three people raised there hand. my friend who has some, my girl.... cuz i wont shut up about them....and one other person..... one! he know almost nothing about them and thought they were some kind of scam. but later i had about fifteen people surrounding me asking me about BTC and i told them what i new and told them to look it up.  THEY ALL WANTED TO INVEST


this is a small version of what is going to happen in china. a percentage .... maybe  even just one...will buy bitcoins....maybe just one..... and that mathe is 28-46m viewers one % of that is 28,000 they buy just one coin each. (this is so fucking low ball!!) and that is 28,000,000 yep 28million worth. so now i ask what are the implications of 28 mill? well lets see to go from the current state of 107- per bit we would need about 100k usd to go to 120. imagine what 28 mill ( again verry low ball) would do to it. in two weeks im calling above 200. call me crazy but i just bout more.

When you frequent these forums and hear about every source every time bitcoins are mentioned it's easy to believe that they are widely known to the public.  The truth is they aren't widely known about by many IT professionals let alone the average guy on the street.

Many more people have heard of bitcoins now than in the past but there is still a LONG way to go until we reach any sort of saturation point.

Not to mention the marketing idea that most people will have to hear about it 7 times before they take it seriously and make a conscious decision to investigate it further or not.

Really most haven't heard about it and most that have heard about it don't really know much about it or what it is.  I'm not sure if we will ever get to a point where it is a household name but the trend since it's inception is encouraging.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: BitcoinAshley on May 05, 2013, 01:02:48 PM
Before we get ahead of ourselves, do we need a reminder that google trends is a lagging indicator?

 ;D


Also:
Quote
It prevents the US from devaluing the currency


Gee, they sure haven't had much of a problem doing that so far...

Actually, with the amount of time the presses are on each month, it's a herculean feat of economic wizardry that the amount being printed has not already caused a hyperinflation event. The magic isn't going to last forever.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 05, 2013, 04:07:08 PM
Are you telling me that the American government aren't seriously worried about the USD losing its status as world reserve currency?

I don't know, according to Mish (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.no/2013/05/year-of-yaun.html) who knows a whole lot more about economics than I do, the reserve currency status is more a curse than a blessing. It prevents the US from devaluing the currency (which neo-classical economists think will increase exports). I agree with the rest of your post though, more specifically that the US is utterly dependent on cheap and US-friendly sources of oil.

There is great debate about this among economists.

They way I see it though is that pretty much everywhere you go in the world you will be able to find someone willing to trust and purchase your dollar. I can't help but think this is an advantage to the US economy as it makes it easier for American companies to do business.

As far as devaluation being the answer to economic problems I doubt it. It is simply a way to put off the structural reform that congress seems to be unable of carrying through. The answer to rising value of a currency is to increase productivity - there are no shortcuts, it's not like you can just print money and all your problems are over. To achieve real growth, you actually have to grow, not just increase the money supply.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: ronaldlee0917 on May 05, 2013, 04:10:55 PM
Before we get ahead of ourselves, do we need a reminder that google trends is a lagging indicator?

 ;D


Also:
Quote
It prevents the US from devaluing the currency


Gee, they sure haven't had much of a problem doing that so far...

Actually, with the amount of time the presses are on each month, it's a herculean feat of economic wizardry that the amount being printed has not already caused a hyperinflation event. The magic isn't going to last forever.
People in mainland China seldom use Google, they use Baidu.
There was already a spike in Bitcoin search volume there after that tv documentary.

http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2 (http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2)

相关趋势 比特币
1周 +63% 1月 +767% 1季度 +3588%

translation:
Related trend Bitcoin
this week +63% month +767% season +3588%
daily search volume ~70000

People saying that CCTV show having no impact in China are in denial.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: GigaCoin on May 05, 2013, 05:00:58 PM
Before we get ahead of ourselves, do we need a reminder that google trends is a lagging indicator?

 ;D


Also:
Quote
It prevents the US from devaluing the currency


Gee, they sure haven't had much of a problem doing that so far...

Actually, with the amount of time the presses are on each month, it's a herculean feat of economic wizardry that the amount being printed has not already caused a hyperinflation event. The magic isn't going to last forever.
People in mainland China seldom use Google, they use Baidu.
There was already a spike in Bitcoin search volume there after that tv documentary.

http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2 (http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2)

相关趋势 比特币
1周 +63% 1月 +767% 1季度 +3588%

translation:
Related trend Bitcoin
this week +63% month +767% season +3588%
daily search volume ~70000

People saying that CCTV show having no impact in China are in denial.

Excellent find. Chinese interest should help higher prices again coming weeks.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: wobber on May 05, 2013, 05:26:03 PM
I think China, overall, won't rush to jump into bitcoins.

They'll do what the do for millennia: gain intelligence on this new asset (ask mathematicians to answer questions like "are there only 2 mil BTC transacted and the rest stashed?", analyze code, open exchanges, start hacking (God help us).

Then they'll buy little by little.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Inedible on May 05, 2013, 08:00:22 PM
Are you telling me that the American government aren't seriously worried about the USD losing its status as world reserve currency?

I don't know, according to Mish (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.no/2013/05/year-of-yaun.html) who knows a whole lot more about economics than I do, the reserve currency status is more a curse than a blessing. It prevents the US from devaluing the currency (which neo-classical economists think will increase exports). I agree with the rest of your post though, more specifically that the US is utterly dependent on cheap and US-friendly sources of oil.

You can't be serious.

The US is inflating it's money as quickly as it humanly can.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: bitleif on May 07, 2013, 05:46:47 PM
You can't be serious.

The US is inflating it's money as quickly as it humanly can.

They are trying you mean. Just like Japan tried for 20 years and failed. Because they aren't actually printing money, they are issuing debt. Debt is like money except it comes with a contract that says you have to pay it back, with interest. So you can't just spend it willy-nilly, you have to invest it and make a return on it. That's why the stock market has rocketed to the moon while little else has improved. The inflationary effect of added debt is limited and temporary. The moment the FED stops QEing, the economy crashes into a deflationary inferno in ten seconds.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 07, 2013, 06:50:54 PM
You can't be serious.

The US is inflating it's money as quickly as it humanly can.

They are trying you mean. Just like Japan tried for 20 years and failed. Because they aren't actually printing money, they are issuing debt. Debt is like money except it comes with a contract that says you have to pay it back, with interest. So you can't just spend it willy-nilly, you have to invest it and make a return on it. That's why the stock market has rocketed to the moon while little else has improved. The inflationary effect of added debt is limited and temporary. The moment the FED stops QEing, the economy crashes into a deflationary inferno in ten seconds.

So if all the money issued as debt goes into creating an asset bubble in the stock market, why would anything be any different in the real economy if they didn't create the asset bubble?

In fact deflation doesn't mean disaster. There is plenty of evidence to support the fact that deflation doesn't mean recession (you still can't skimp on structural reform though). Besides if the US government really wanted high consumer price inflation right now they could just print $3 trillion physical cash and actually snail mail $10k to each and every American. Problem solved.



Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: mgio on May 07, 2013, 07:02:37 PM
Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Crazy on May 07, 2013, 07:03:54 PM
Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/
Don't hold your breath.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: notme on May 07, 2013, 07:04:09 PM
Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

I'm not sure I'd call swings larger than 10% stable.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Inedible on May 07, 2013, 08:22:52 PM
Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

I personally don't think it'll hit till Thursday/Friday.

I'm actually not sure what's supressing the price just now. The only thing I can think of is people who were burnt in the last bubble of $260.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: MAbtc on May 07, 2013, 08:40:57 PM
I'm actually not sure what's supressing the price just now. The only thing I can think of is people who were burnt in the last bubble of $260.

How about the broader downtrend? Incessant resistance? A lot of people got burnt for a lot of money -- we will see more capitulation.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 07, 2013, 08:49:44 PM
Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

I personally don't think it'll hit till Thursday/Friday.

I'm actually not sure what's supressing the price just now. The only thing I can think of is people who were burnt in the last bubble of $260.

I agree. It will take time for Chinese to do the research, make the decision and finally wire the money. If we're talking 100k new converts in the last few days and they end up putting in $100 on average we will say $10m new money coming in.

Personally I think we have come a long way since January. We've had over a month with a price that has been $100-ish or above, with minor dips into double digits and I think that's quite impressive considering all the negative events like the lawsuit, the freezing of bank accounts of exchanges etc.

Considering the situation it doesn't seem unlikely that we will see a new all time high within the next 30 days.



Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: MAbtc on May 07, 2013, 08:56:52 PM
Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: anu on May 07, 2013, 09:06:44 PM
Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Odalv on May 07, 2013, 09:13:38 PM
Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

I personally don't think it'll hit till Thursday/Friday.

I'm actually not sure what's supressing the price just now. The only thing I can think of is people who were burnt in the last bubble of $260.

I agree. It will take time for Chinese to do the research, make the decision and finally wire the money. If we're talking 100k new converts in the last few days and they end up putting in $100 on average we will say $10m new money coming in.

Personally I think we have come a long way since January. We've had over a month with a price that has been $100-ish or above, with minor dips into double digits and I think that's quite impressive considering all the negative events like the lawsuit, the freezing of bank accounts of exchanges etc.

Considering the situation it doesn't seem unlikely that we will see a new all time high within the next 30 days.

Yes, it will take few months (what is bitcoin?, is my money safe?, is it scam?, is it ponzi?, a lot of question they have to solve) but then ...


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Awhut on May 07, 2013, 09:19:19 PM
Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.


But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC that would mean an injection of 1.34billion into BTC That would make BTC worth $120 without including any of the western investment. Of course not everyone will invest but even 1% of China's population is 13.4 million and I'm sure a wealthy minority will invest a little more than $1 :)


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Jrock on May 07, 2013, 09:23:13 PM
A big order I forgot about got filled slightly under $100 a pop. So now Bitcoin is definately gonna crash, not go up.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: jinni on May 07, 2013, 09:28:48 PM
Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

China has more then 1 million millionaires (owning more than $1.6m).

Income in China is grossly under-reported.  

Even if you make $5500 a year, $100 is still only 1.8% of that. Considering Chinese people are saving around 40% of their disposable income, investing a little in Bitcoin should be easily doable.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: anu on May 07, 2013, 09:42:05 PM
Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.


But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC

What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives.



Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: kokojie on May 08, 2013, 03:41:41 PM
Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.


But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC

What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives.



That's a vast over-estimation. I'd say 30 million would be more accurate. There are about 30 million Chinese with income comparable to US/EU. The vast majority are much lower. New college grads make about $500/month salary in China, and that's considered very good start salary for a college grad.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Inedible on May 09, 2013, 03:29:10 AM
Doesn't look like their funds are materialising or if they are, they're very small (as many have mentioned).


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: elux on May 09, 2013, 04:18:46 PM
Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.


But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC

What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives.



That's a vast over-estimation. I'd say 30 million would be more accurate. There are about 30 million Chinese with income comparable to US/EU.
The vast majority are much lower. New college grads make about $500/month salary in China, and that's considered very good start salary for a college grad.




Regarding Chinese purchasing power:

Quote from: Wikipedia

The market for luxury goods in the People's Republic of China composes a significant proportion of all luxury goods sales worldwide.

As of 2010, China is the world's second largest consumer market for luxury goods,[1] next only to Japan,[2] and having surpassed the United States in 2009.[3]

The World Luxury Association estimated the total amount of consumption for luxury goods in China was US$8.6 billion in 2008.

This accounted for 25% of the world's luxury goods sales. According to Ouyang Kun, the Chief Representative of the World Luxury Association in China,
"The disposable income of Chinese people has been constantly rising in recent years. Global luxury brands now see China as the next Japan."[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_goods_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

Quote from: The Economist
By some forecasts China will be the second-largest consumer market in the world by 2015, not far behind America. Chinese people already buy more cars than people in any other country: 13.5m last year to Americans' 11.6m. China is on its way to becoming the biggest luxury-goods market. The central government made an increase in domestic consumption one of the priorities of its latest five-year plan.

http://www.economist.com/node/18928514

Quote from: The Economist
The feelgood factor

A survey by McKinsey of Chinese consumers found that after an initial burst of “if you’ve got it, flaunt it”, motives for buying foreign luxury brands were becoming more subtle. Some respondents saw having the right car as a visiting card with which to impress potential business partners. Many considered a fancy car a delightful self-indulgence rather than something to show off to others. Mr Müller-Ötvös sees the same trend among Rolls-Royce buyers: they are less interested in exterior bling, more in interior comforts, “like having the fur inside your coat”.

In China the market for luxury cars in the past decade has grown by an average of 36% a year, far outstripping the 26% annual rise in its overall car market. Even as growth slows down in the next few years, McKinsey expects the premium-car market to maintain a lead, expanding by an average of 12% a year to 2020, compared with around 8% for the car market as a whole. By then China will be the biggest market for luxury cars.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21576225-why-everyone-wants-be-top-end-market-dreams-wheels


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: XXthetimeisnowXX on May 10, 2013, 03:33:40 AM
after learning about bit coins it took me about 4 months before i even bout one...and that was at 3 to 5 per bit. this is not going to be an overnight thing....but it will increase the value of btc.

i herd about the Internet on the news when i was young like 7th grade on "Chanel 1" and it didn't really catch for another 5 years.

if this is the broadcast about the Internet and if its similar to what happend then, then it will be probably 2-4 years before a good amount of adoption and saturation.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: Crazy on May 10, 2013, 06:24:39 AM
Anyone that's learning about BTC now will see the massive bubble and assume the correction is not yet complete. You will probably never see the huge blind dumping that occurred before; or at least not for a long time. Don't hold your breath for some massive move from a quick inflow of capital.


Title: Re: China : The next price bump
Post by: BitPirate on May 10, 2013, 09:28:20 AM
Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.


But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC

What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives.



That's a vast over-estimation. I'd say 30 million would be more accurate. There are about 30 million Chinese with income comparable to US/EU.
The vast majority are much lower. New college grads make about $500/month salary in China, and that's considered very good start salary for a college grad.




Regarding Chinese purchasing power:

Quote from: Wikipedia

The market for luxury goods in the People's Republic of China composes a significant proportion of all luxury goods sales worldwide.

As of 2010, China is the world's second largest consumer market for luxury goods,[1] next only to Japan,[2] and having surpassed the United States in 2009.[3]

The World Luxury Association estimated the total amount of consumption for luxury goods in China was US$8.6 billion in 2008.

This accounted for 25% of the world's luxury goods sales. According to Ouyang Kun, the Chief Representative of the World Luxury Association in China,
"The disposable income of Chinese people has been constantly rising in recent years. Global luxury brands now see China as the next Japan."[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_goods_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

Quote from: The Economist
By some forecasts China will be the second-largest consumer market in the world by 2015, not far behind America. Chinese people already buy more cars than people in any other country: 13.5m last year to Americans' 11.6m. China is on its way to becoming the biggest luxury-goods market. The central government made an increase in domestic consumption one of the priorities of its latest five-year plan.

http://www.economist.com/node/18928514

Quote from: The Economist
The feelgood factor

A survey by McKinsey of Chinese consumers found that after an initial burst of “if you’ve got it, flaunt it”, motives for buying foreign luxury brands were becoming more subtle. Some respondents saw having the right car as a visiting card with which to impress potential business partners. Many considered a fancy car a delightful self-indulgence rather than something to show off to others. Mr Müller-Ötvös sees the same trend among Rolls-Royce buyers: they are less interested in exterior bling, more in interior comforts, “like having the fur inside your coat”.

In China the market for luxury cars in the past decade has grown by an average of 36% a year, far outstripping the 26% annual rise in its overall car market. Even as growth slows down in the next few years, McKinsey expects the premium-car market to maintain a lead, expanding by an average of 12% a year to 2020, compared with around 8% for the car market as a whole. By then China will be the biggest market for luxury cars.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21576225-why-everyone-wants-be-top-end-market-dreams-wheels

Don't forget the biggest point -- there are more millionaires in China that anywhere else in the world. The average income per capita may be low; but the population of affluent potential investors is extremely high -- there are plenty of people with silly money here.