China : The next price bump

[pheaonix]

very interesting stuff in my opinion

nothing wrong with lots more people using bitcoin in my opinion

[bitleif]

Are you telling me that the American government aren't seriously worried about the USD losing its status as world reserve currency?

I don't know, according to Mish who knows a whole lot more about economics than I do, the reserve currency status is more a curse than a blessing. It prevents the US from devaluing the currency (which neo-classical economists think will increase exports). I agree with the rest of your post though, more specifically that the US is utterly dependent on cheap and US-friendly sources of oil.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

ok so some say that it doesnt matter that the thing aired to million and millions of people. and everyone who is gunna buy bitcoins has allready...


well i know this is a small sample size but i live in a huge city and was at a large party (about 60-80 people) outside where most were i got the currage...half drunk.....and got everyones attention. i said " ok please raise your hand if you have ever herd of bitcoin"...........I hear from the crowd.........."big loin?".... "bite coin?"...."it corn"??    " no everyone i said has enyone here herd of BITCOIN!?!? three people raised there hand. my friend who has some, my girl.... cuz i wont shut up about them....and one other person..... one! he know almost nothing about them and thought they were some kind of scam. but later i had about fifteen people surrounding me asking me about BTC and i told them what i new and told them to look it up.  THEY ALL WANTED TO INVEST


this is a small version of what is going to happen in china. a percentage .... maybe  even just one...will buy bitcoins....maybe just one..... and that mathe is 28-46m viewers one % of that is 28,000 they buy just one coin each. (this is so fucking low ball!!) and that is 28,000,000 yep 28million worth. so now i ask what are the implications of 28 mill? well lets see to go from the current state of 107- per bit we would need about 100k usd to go to 120. imagine what 28 mill ( again verry low ball) would do to it. in two weeks im calling above 200. call me crazy but i just bout more.

[GigaCoin]

China had a virtual currency QQ coin which was very successful to the point the government crushed it. The fact the STATE run media didn't demonize bitcoin is a GOOD thing. Chinese aren't new to virtual currency speculation, if you think everyone in china is DONE buying Bitcoins, you're mistaken they're getting started. You also forget there is no proper infrastructure for the Chinese to get into bitcoins yet, once that is resolved we are in for a ride.

[amencon]

ok so some say that it doesnt matter that the thing aired to million and millions of people. and everyone who is gunna buy bitcoins has allready...


well i know this is a small sample size but i live in a huge city and was at a large party (about 60-80 people) outside where most were i got the currage...half drunk.....and got everyones attention. i said " ok please raise your hand if you have ever herd of bitcoin"...........I hear from the crowd.........."big loin?".... "bite coin?"...."it corn"??    " no everyone i said has enyone here herd of BITCOIN!?!? three people raised there hand. my friend who has some, my girl.... cuz i wont shut up about them....and one other person..... one! he know almost nothing about them and thought they were some kind of scam. but later i had about fifteen people surrounding me asking me about BTC and i told them what i new and told them to look it up.  THEY ALL WANTED TO INVEST


this is a small version of what is going to happen in china. a percentage .... maybe  even just one...will buy bitcoins....maybe just one..... and that mathe is 28-46m viewers one % of that is 28,000 they buy just one coin each. (this is so fucking low ball!!) and that is 28,000,000 yep 28million worth. so now i ask what are the implications of 28 mill? well lets see to go from the current state of 107- per bit we would need about 100k usd to go to 120. imagine what 28 mill ( again verry low ball) would do to it. in two weeks im calling above 200. call me crazy but i just bout more.

When you frequent these forums and hear about every source every time bitcoins are mentioned it's easy to believe that they are widely known to the public.  The truth is they aren't widely known about by many IT professionals let alone the average guy on the street.

Many more people have heard of bitcoins now than in the past but there is still a LONG way to go until we reach any sort of saturation point.

Not to mention the marketing idea that most people will have to hear about it 7 times before they take it seriously and make a conscious decision to investigate it further or not.

Really most haven't heard about it and most that have heard about it don't really know much about it or what it is.  I'm not sure if we will ever get to a point where it is a household name but the trend since it's inception is encouraging.

[BitcoinAshley]

Before we get ahead of ourselves, do we need a reminder that google trends is a lagging indicator?

 


Also:

It prevents the US from devaluing the currency

Gee, they sure haven't had much of a problem doing that so far...

Actually, with the amount of time the presses are on each month, it's a herculean feat of economic wizardry that the amount being printed has not already caused a hyperinflation event. The magic isn't going to last forever.

[jinni]

Are you telling me that the American government aren't seriously worried about the USD losing its status as world reserve currency?

I don't know, according to Mish who knows a whole lot more about economics than I do, the reserve currency status is more a curse than a blessing. It prevents the US from devaluing the currency (which neo-classical economists think will increase exports). I agree with the rest of your post though, more specifically that the US is utterly dependent on cheap and US-friendly sources of oil.

There is great debate about this among economists.

They way I see it though is that pretty much everywhere you go in the world you will be able to find someone willing to trust and purchase your dollar. I can't help but think this is an advantage to the US economy as it makes it easier for American companies to do business.

As far as devaluation being the answer to economic problems I doubt it. It is simply a way to put off the structural reform that congress seems to be unable of carrying through. The answer to rising value of a currency is to increase productivity - there are no shortcuts, it's not like you can just print money and all your problems are over. To achieve real growth, you actually have to grow, not just increase the money supply.

[ronaldlee0917]

Before we get ahead of ourselves, do we need a reminder that google trends is a lagging indicator?

 


Also:

It prevents the US from devaluing the currency

Gee, they sure haven't had much of a problem doing that so far...

Actually, with the amount of time the presses are on each month, it's a herculean feat of economic wizardry that the amount being printed has not already caused a hyperinflation event. The magic isn't going to last forever.

People in mainland China seldom use Google, they use Baidu.
There was already a spike in Bitcoin search volume there after that tv documentary.

http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

相关趋势 比特币
1周 +63% 1月 +767% 1季度 +3588%

translation:
Related trend Bitcoin
this week +63% month +767% season +3588%
daily search volume ~70000

People saying that CCTV show having no impact in China are in denial.

[GigaCoin]

Before we get ahead of ourselves, do we need a reminder that google trends is a lagging indicator?

 


Also:

It prevents the US from devaluing the currency

Gee, they sure haven't had much of a problem doing that so far...

Actually, with the amount of time the presses are on each month, it's a herculean feat of economic wizardry that the amount being printed has not already caused a hyperinflation event. The magic isn't going to last forever.

People in mainland China seldom use Google, they use Baidu.
There was already a spike in Bitcoin search volume there after that tv documentary.

http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

相关趋势 比特币
1周 +63% 1月 +767% 1季度 +3588%

translation:
Related trend Bitcoin
this week +63% month +767% season +3588%
daily search volume ~70000

People saying that CCTV show having no impact in China are in denial.

Excellent find. Chinese interest should help higher prices again coming weeks.

[wobber]

I think China, overall, won't rush to jump into bitcoins.

They'll do what the do for millennia: gain intelligence on this new asset (ask mathematicians to answer questions like "are there only 2 mil BTC transacted and the rest stashed?", analyze code, open exchanges, start hacking (God help us).

Then they'll buy little by little.

[Inedible]

Are you telling me that the American government aren't seriously worried about the USD losing its status as world reserve currency?

I don't know, according to Mish who knows a whole lot more about economics than I do, the reserve currency status is more a curse than a blessing. It prevents the US from devaluing the currency (which neo-classical economists think will increase exports). I agree with the rest of your post though, more specifically that the US is utterly dependent on cheap and US-friendly sources of oil.

You can't be serious.

The US is inflating it's money as quickly as it humanly can.

[bitleif]

You can't be serious.

The US is inflating it's money as quickly as it humanly can.

They are trying you mean. Just like Japan tried for 20 years and failed. Because they aren't actually printing money, they are issuing debt. Debt is like money except it comes with a contract that says you have to pay it back, with interest. So you can't just spend it willy-nilly, you have to invest it and make a return on it. That's why the stock market has rocketed to the moon while little else has improved. The inflationary effect of added debt is limited and temporary. The moment the FED stops QEing, the economy crashes into a deflationary inferno in ten seconds.

[jinni]

You can't be serious.

The US is inflating it's money as quickly as it humanly can.

They are trying you mean. Just like Japan tried for 20 years and failed. Because they aren't actually printing money, they are issuing debt. Debt is like money except it comes with a contract that says you have to pay it back, with interest. So you can't just spend it willy-nilly, you have to invest it and make a return on it. That's why the stock market has rocketed to the moon while little else has improved. The inflationary effect of added debt is limited and temporary. The moment the FED stops QEing, the economy crashes into a deflationary inferno in ten seconds.

So if all the money issued as debt goes into creating an asset bubble in the stock market, why would anything be any different in the real economy if they didn't create the asset bubble?

In fact deflation doesn't mean disaster. There is plenty of evidence to support the fact that deflation doesn't mean recession (you still can't skimp on structural reform though). Besides if the US government really wanted high consumer price inflation right now they could just print $3 trillion physical cash and actually snail mail $10k to each and every American. Problem solved.

[mgio]

Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

[Crazy]

Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

Don't hold your breath.

[notme]

Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

I'm not sure I'd call swings larger than 10% stable.

[Inedible]

Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

I personally don't think it'll hit till Thursday/Friday.

I'm actually not sure what's supressing the price just now. The only thing I can think of is people who were burnt in the last bubble of $260.

[MAbtc]

I'm actually not sure what's supressing the price just now. The only thing I can think of is people who were burnt in the last bubble of $260.

How about the broader downtrend? Incessant resistance? A lot of people got burnt for a lot of money -- we will see more capitulation.

[jinni]

Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

I personally don't think it'll hit till Thursday/Friday.

I'm actually not sure what's supressing the price just now. The only thing I can think of is people who were burnt in the last bubble of $260.

I agree. It will take time for Chinese to do the research, make the decision and finally wire the money. If we're talking 100k new converts in the last few days and they end up putting in $100 on average we will say $10m new money coming in.

Personally I think we have come a long way since January. We've had over a month with a price that has been $100-ish or above, with minor dips into double digits and I think that's quite impressive considering all the negative events like the lawsuit, the freezing of bank accounts of exchanges etc.

Considering the situation it doesn't seem unlikely that we will see a new all time high within the next 30 days.

[MAbtc]

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.