Bitcoin Forum

So I see that BFL has started shipping their 5.0Gh machines. Anyone know how many have been shipped and what the potential wait time on one would be if I ordered today?

My guess would have to be August or September.

That's actually not as drastic as I would have imagined.

Time to have a BTC garage sale!

Do not forget that the difficulty will skyrocket by the time you receive your 5gh miner.

Now? Probably by Christmas if you're lucky, I'd wager.  :-\

I would say between never and ever.

^this^ sounds more realistic. I am not impressed with BFL's manufacturing setup. Their estimate of 400 units per day is grossly unrealistic. I placed an order in late Jan/early Feb sometime and I would be ecstatic if I could receive product before difficulty hits 50 million. (Before purchasing I made estimates assuming 40X current at the time (was around 100-150 mil, I don't remember exactly) just to be *safe* but I'm growing less optimistic by the day)

what he said

I ordered in September, it's now May, no product delivered. You do the math...

By the time you receive you Jalap, it would be pretty much the same as now if you were to mine with GPUs, in terms of profit/hashrate... which is pretty much nill.

If you have the coins, I would highly suggest ASICMiner's latest auction at a fixed price (49.99 BTC) for their 10 GH/s boards

Benefits:

You'll get these within a week of auction's end
Beat everyone else who bought Avalon Batch 2/3
Great customer service (online guide up)

Check it out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201753.0

https://i.imgur.com/2cSB5yFl.jpg (http://imgur.com/2cSB5yF)

 :D

When ordering from Butterfly Labs you need to pay close attention to the dates you are likely to receive the unit before making a purchasing decision.  It is recommended that you exercise caution before trusting their website which states, "Orders placed now will not ship until the month of July."  Based on their current deliveries it is extremely unlikely that if you place an order today that you would receive in July.

Furthermore do not be taken in by website calculators for mining. Most website calculators, including the calculator offered by Butterfly Labs, conveniently forget that the difficulty level goes up every two weeks.

More realistic figures are as follows:

If the price of Bitcoins were to average $80, and difficulty was to increase each 2 week period by 18%, then provided you receive before 1st Oct 13 you can break even with a jalapeno.  You will double your money if you receive on 1st Aug 13 and lose money if you receive after 8th Oct 13.

If the price of Bitcoins were to average $100, and difficulty was to increase each 2 week period by 18%, then provided you receive before 15th Oct 13 you can break even with a jalapeno.  You will double your money if you receive on 20th Aug 13 and lose money if you receive after 22nd Oct 13.

If the price of Bitcoins were to average $120, and difficulty was to increase each 2 week period by 18%, then provided you receive before 29th Oct 13 you can break even with a jalepino.  You will double your money if you receive on 3rd Sept 13 and lose money if you receive after 5th Nov 13.

The above figures assume you pay $274 plus $38 shipping to US, $0.15 per kWh for electricity, pay 3% of proceeds to a mining pool, and run the machine 24/7 until the end of 2014 with no downtime.

I would say at least months and months. What I would be more worried about is if you would make your money back because everyone who ordered it previously would have an Asic by now and the profitability would have decreased significantly after the difficulty increased.

My estimate is Q1 next year.

Remember there are about 60,000 BFL orders ahead of you and they've shipped out maybe 35 units so far?

Even if they hit their very optimistic goal of producing 400/day (I'm assuming business days too), that's 30 weeks from now, which is almost 7 months.

And it will take them a couple months to ramp up to 400/day since they've been producing maybe 4 a day right now? So figure 9 months optimistically and BFL has the reputation of always being late.

Wouldn't risk it. I bet the DIY boards weill be out in force before there's actually any significant amount of BFL's 'in the wild.'

hahahahahaha, nice guess! BFL stock holder/sock puppet?

There is no evidence whatsoever that even first day pre-orders will ship by then.

One can only hope

They shipped a handful to family&friends. Then stopped shipping again.




Have you ever wondered why BFLs company logo and the symbol for Infinity look the same? Because it takes them til infinity to ship ...

Butterfly Labs:
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-rg8UWEm97cw/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAAABE/7y9EsIJ2oEM/photo.jpg

Infinity:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c8/Infinite.svg/200px-Infinite.svg.png

You do realize they have only shipped 50, yet they have tons of the machines "built and running", have for months... They are users "testtest" on bitminter, and they are on other servers also, and a few pools and solo operations of their own.... They are using your dollars to make them the majority of the market-share. They will ship once they have used YOUR equipment long enough to make them millions, and decay the bitcoin value to nothing. Once they have accumulated enough bitcoins, they ship the units, and cash-out. Leaving you with your 5GHs machine only making 0.00001% of the market, while they have "built and are testing" with the unshipped 25% of the market.

This is what they are doing...

100 for me, 1 for you...
200 for me, 1 for you...
300 for me, 1 for you...
400 for me, 1 for you...

Etc... Watch... Three months, and they will do a major cash-out and crash the market down to $10 per BTC... Then try cashing-out for litecoins... since those will be worth more after the crash, and they can't manufacture them. (Or they will try that first, swapping the bitcoins for litecoins, and then cash-out on both markets.)

In the end, those 1.5Ths models will be making what our single-video-cards today make. Just with less power consumption, and less overhead.

I believe TestTest is an multi Avalon owner. If you go on the bitminter irc channel the owner has been there before I believe. If you know otherwise please supply proof.

Well I purchased one recently, it went something like this:

Had a drink, looked at price seemded bad....

Had another drink looked at price seemed not as bad....

Had too much too drink, woke up next day had bought one and had a bad head!!

I think this is the only way people will buy them now after all of the bad press and lies about delivery time scales!!

The general consensus seems to be sometime after hell freezes over

When asked this question by a UK user via BFL's official Twitter feed, the response was "two months (https://twitter.com/ButterflyLabs/status/329699219411705856)".  I think someone spiked the water in Kansas City.

They have never been consistent once on any shipping date they have ever given. There is no reason to trust anything they say

If you order now you can expect to receive it in 12 months (hopefully).

Some orders are at 11 months now...likely BFL won't ship by the one year mark.

I cant believe how many dumasses are still holding on to their preorders from June 2012.

Good luck and hopefully you can recoup your investment...not.  :P

It is based on the current 'difficulty' .

I.E
To get the PSU sorted out so that the boards last long enough to get out of the guarantee period before being returned.
As they ramp up production, they will find that significantly more of the product fail to meet expectations or the 'spec' that has been sold to customers (hence the 'dropping' of the hash rate but doubling of the price per unit)

It is the same with any manufacturing operating, however BFL's previous experience counts for FA because they were working with already developed product (FPGA), manufactured to military specification (xilinx biggest customer is the military, anything that does not meet the standard is sold 'down' the supply chain), what this means is the product is F***ing reliable in all but the most abysmally designed products,You can even stick their products upside down and 'dead bug' them with a shitty PSU  and they still work.....
as a result a manufacturer does not get any 'real world' experience in REAL hardcore manufacturing and fault finding.(sticking a  public domain design based on military spec parts in a flashy case does not make you a design expert or 'crypto specialist')


This is relevant because the BFL ASIC is not in this class of design or specification, so it is going to be a complete bitch to rein in...
What does this have to do with your question.....

Well if you are near the front of the list... then you get a unit and you can mine until the fucker breaks down.. send it back and get a 'new one'.. if you are later into the list... good luck on getting a unit.

However if they can crack the current issues they are having.. then all will be well in happy land.

Don't know what you're on about, it's been so consistent. 2 months. Always 2 months, in 2 months it'll be 2 months.

Well if you order now here is what it looks like:

11 months of delays + 4 unreal device specs + 999 pathetic excuses + 789 delays + 1 douche named Josh = December 24th 2049

 :D

If you spent $2500 on a 7970 rig, and mined from now, until release-day...

You would make more than you would-have, if you gave them $2500, and let them mine with your hardware for the expected 9-months delivery. (After they mine and setup 50% of the market, drive up the difficulty, and make your 5GHs toy that will only mine pennies a day, by the time it ships to you.)

They are already made, and running... Earning them bitcoins. Why would they actually deliver. They Want you to get a refund. They have no intention to ship. They are taking money to build themselves more and more, and using you as a free loan.

Sure, they throw out a few 5GHs machines, after creating an equal number of 500GHs machines for themselves. Thus, mining our dollar, and giving away pennies.

Suckers!

Funny thing is, this is a free market, and we can easily lock-out them with code that they just can't process.

We will do it to survive, and because we can. And because they can't.

Funny thing is.. if they hold all the bitcoins... who is going to want/trade/buy/sell them? They are on a path to destroy bitcoins, and will end-up with them holding all the bitcoins that no-one wants to use or sell or buy. lol.

Wait are you insinuating a BFL ASIC fork? :trollface:

LOL wait for 2nd gen ASIC, ordering now is a waste of $

 Liberally speaking, hopefully by end of first quarter 2014.

 They have shipped out approximately 40 Jalapeno units thus far, as best we can tell.

I note that they have primarily shipped these to developers (OK) and magazines (publicity stunt).  I gotta believe that the article they got published in Wired http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/05/butterfly_live/ (http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/05/butterfly_live/) helped them to get another couple $Million in orders.  This is looking more and more like a Pyramid scheme every day.  Get in new orders to (A)Fund a bit of R&D and (B)Pay the no doubt exhorbitant salaries of the owners (Josh, among others).

After seeing the published photos of torn-down Jalapeno's, I cannot believe that this would be a profitable item to produce for $149, or even $274.  Too much hardware in the box.

Full disclosure : I am still holding an order from March for a Jalapeno.  In a similar vein, my wife has purchased some Powerball tickets.  One way or another, we're going to be rich!

They are already made, and running... Earning them bitcoins. Why would they actually deliver. They Want you to get a refund. They have no intention to ship. They are taking money to build themselves more and more, and using you as a free loan.[/quote]

Do you have a credible source for this, or are you just a liar? What credible evidence do you have that the miners are already built and mining?


Again, evidence, or are you just talking out your ass?


What, you're gonna modify the network to disable ASIC mining? Good luck with that. Locking out ASICs would require a complete rework of mining clients, bitcoin wallets, and a you'd have to convince all users to adopt your new modified software. You really think that you're going to convince users to lock out ASICs, just because you're butthurt? Again, good luck.


If WHO holds all the bitcoins? There's precisely ZERO indication that BFL is any threat to holding anything more than an insignificant fraction of the overall bitcoins. Over half of all bitcoins that will EVER be mined have already been mined, so, yeah, good luck with that...  ::) ::) ::)

I think the forum needs to require an IQ test before letting these idiots out of the n00b cage...

Essentially infinite.  By the time they ship a newly ordered 5 Gh machine, it will be useless for mining.   

it's calculated so you can't make roi

Yes. (Are you Josh from BFL... lol... you sure sound like him!)

Proof, I don't need proof of anything. I have logic. I assessed the situation, came to a conclusion, and derived a logical answer that is unbiased to hype and false promises from others.

To protect an investment, people will do anything. (Didn't they just force a mandatory minimum for transactions? Isn't that a "demand" which was made to "protect", our investments.)

You see, it is open source, thus, we can do what we want with it. It won't be hard to convince people to use new software that offers "less losses", and "protects your investment", and "increases your wallet security". If that happens, (which I see happening down the line), then ASIC's will be gone faster than they are created. They are few, and if they use the resources they have to "buy" back in... then all credits will essentially be property of the ASIC's in time, and thus, useless to us.

They have to cash them in, to make money. If we are not buying them, they make no money, only bitcoins. Thus, they have to ask for less money, to get us to buy them. That drives the price down. Why would we pay them premium prices for things that cost them next to nothing to produce?  We won't. And they will be happy selling the millions of coins they make for pennies, because they still make money from them. Only those who have invested in older hardware will slowly be choked-out, loosing all they made, watching it be sucked-up by the ASIC's... (Since we are the majority, and if we leave, that will leave a minority fighting over being the one with the most ASIC's. That will be less transactions going-on, thus less payments, thus less value.)

If the Majority (us with GPU's), is not here to talk about bitcoins, and us (the majority), leaves, because we are butt-hurt... That alone will be thousands and thousands of people saying... "Yea, bitcoins are crap, I lost all this..."

Thus, the few still mining will not be able to convince the majority otherwise.

ASIC's will always be a minority. They just can't make them fast enough, and are making them for the highest bidders, who are few and far between.

They are the apples of the world. They might as well suffer the same fate.

In the end... I can cash-out my earnings before they get released. (In 6 months).

OMG they released 30 japaninos ... 150GHs total... and 100 of the 60GHs units, 6,750GHs total. Only took them a year to do that! All of them are buggy, and crapping-out, now overpriced, and still not delivering beyond the crumbs they are making.

one year, if ordered now... That will leave 2 years left in this 25% of discovery, at a difficulty that makes them productively as useless as any GPU out today, worth the same value. But is a future paperweight.

Where do I get my numbers from... The blockchain info and charts. You should learn to read them some time.

Don't get me wrong, I have ASIC's coming too. But It hurts me that it will hurt everyone who doesn't have one, can't get one, and those using bitcoins for actual transactions. But my 60GHs will be a crumb. (Hurt them for bitcoins)

THIS

I'm gonna wait for the open source/diy hobbyist ones to come out.

if you call 5-15 units send to developers and bloggers shipping, than by all means order away. By the time you get that unit it will be worthless, with hardware companies coming out with 250GH-350GH wouldnt be surprised if we saw 600-1000gh/sec machines by the end of the year.

That is the time butterfly labs will die and probably end up in a legal mess when people pull money from this worthless company.

Be an interesting court case if they cash out and buy into Bitcoins prior. A currency which the US FTC has issues with recognising as a legitimate asset of any value...

Shipping a few test boards absolutely does not mean they are shipping.

Josh just posted and said they have 100 more chips on the way but they are having more problems with their single boards. So they can possibly make 50 Jal's with the chips that are on their way...

They are not shipping. They have some test chips coming to them and they are sending them out as they go. Shipping would be more along the lines of they have some many fucking chips they can't assemble them fast enough and ship a finished product out.

At this point, they are still in R&D and trying to figure out how they fucked up so bad. Because their power consumption is out of this world and they still have idiots throwing their money at them.



This was also the reply from BFL in September, November, January, February, March, April, and now. See a pattern?