Theoretical wait time on BFL 5.0Gh if ordered now?

[goatmonkey]

So I see that BFL has started shipping their 5.0Gh machines. Anyone know how many have been shipped and what the potential wait time on one would be if I ordered today?

[bam91]

My guess would have to be August or September.

[goatmonkey]

That's actually not as drastic as I would have imagined.

Time to have a BTC garage sale!

[bam91]

Do not forget that the difficulty will skyrocket by the time you receive your 5gh miner.

[John (John K.)]

Now? Probably by Christmas if you're lucky, I'd wager. 

[Rave]

I would say between never and ever.

[shmadz]

Now? Probably by Christmas if you're lucky, I'd wager. 

^this^ sounds more realistic. I am not impressed with BFL's manufacturing setup. Their estimate of 400 units per day is grossly unrealistic. I placed an order in late Jan/early Feb sometime and I would be ecstatic if I could receive product before difficulty hits 50 million. (Before purchasing I made estimates assuming 40X current at the time (was around 100-150 mil, I don't remember exactly) just to be *safe* but I'm growing less optimistic by the day)

[Noogsy]

Now? Probably by Christmas if you're lucky, I'd wager. 

what he said

[billotronic]

I ordered in September, it's now May, no product delivered. You do the math...

[jayeeyee]

By the time you receive you Jalap, it would be pretty much the same as now if you were to mine with GPUs, in terms of profit/hashrate... which is pretty much nill.

[Franktank]

If you have the coins, I would highly suggest ASICMiner's latest auction at a fixed price (49.99 BTC) for their 10 GH/s boards

Benefits:

You'll get these within a week of auction's end
Beat everyone else who bought Avalon Batch 2/3
Great customer service (online guide up)

Check it out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201753.0

[Knecke]

 

[ripple]

When ordering from Butterfly Labs you need to pay close attention to the dates you are likely to receive the unit before making a purchasing decision.  It is recommended that you exercise caution before trusting their website which states, "Orders placed now will not ship until the month of July."  Based on their current deliveries it is extremely unlikely that if you place an order today that you would receive in July.

Furthermore do not be taken in by website calculators for mining. Most website calculators, including the calculator offered by Butterfly Labs, conveniently forget that the difficulty level goes up every two weeks.

More realistic figures are as follows:

If the price of Bitcoins were to average $80, and difficulty was to increase each 2 week period by 18%, then provided you receive before 1st Oct 13 you can break even with a jalapeno.  You will double your money if you receive on 1st Aug 13 and lose money if you receive after 8th Oct 13.

If the price of Bitcoins were to average $100, and difficulty was to increase each 2 week period by 18%, then provided you receive before 15th Oct 13 you can break even with a jalapeno.  You will double your money if you receive on 20th Aug 13 and lose money if you receive after 22nd Oct 13.

If the price of Bitcoins were to average $120, and difficulty was to increase each 2 week period by 18%, then provided you receive before 29th Oct 13 you can break even with a jalepino.  You will double your money if you receive on 3rd Sept 13 and lose money if you receive after 5th Nov 13.

The above figures assume you pay $274 plus $38 shipping to US, $0.15 per kWh for electricity, pay 3% of proceeds to a mining pool, and run the machine 24/7 until the end of 2014 with no downtime.

[BitshireHashaway]

I would say at least months and months. What I would be more worried about is if you would make your money back because everyone who ordered it previously would have an Asic by now and the profitability would have decreased significantly after the difficulty increased.

[mgio]

My estimate is Q1 next year.

Remember there are about 60,000 BFL orders ahead of you and they've shipped out maybe 35 units so far?

Even if they hit their very optimistic goal of producing 400/day (I'm assuming business days too), that's 30 weeks from now, which is almost 7 months.

And it will take them a couple months to ramp up to 400/day since they've been producing maybe 4 a day right now? So figure 9 months optimistically and BFL has the reputation of always being late.

[tom_o]

My estimate is Q1 next year.

Remember there are about 60,000 BFL orders ahead of you and they've shipped out maybe 35 units so far?

Even if they hit their very optimistic goal of producing 400/day (I'm assuming business days too), that's 30 weeks from now, which is almost 7 months.

And it will take them a couple months to ramp up to 400/day since they've been producing maybe 4 a day right now? So figure 9 months optimistically and BFL has the reputation of always being late.

Wouldn't risk it. I bet the DIY boards weill be out in force before there's actually any significant amount of BFL's 'in the wild.'

[BlackLilac Grant]

My guess would have to be August or September.

hahahahahaha, nice guess! BFL stock holder/sock puppet?

There is no evidence whatsoever that even first day pre-orders will ship by then.

[bam91]

My guess would have to be August or September.

hahahahahaha, nice guess! BFL stock holder/sock puppet?

There is no evidence whatsoever that even first day pre-orders will ship by then.

One can only hope

[Frizz23]

So I see that BFL has started shipping their 5.0Gh machines.

They shipped a handful to family&friends. Then stopped shipping again.

... and what the potential wait time on one would be if I ordered today?

Have you ever wondered why BFLs company logo and the symbol for Infinity look the same? Because it takes them til infinity to ship ...

Butterfly Labs:


Infinity:

[ISAWHIM]

You do realize they have only shipped 50, yet they have tons of the machines "built and running", have for months... They are users "testtest" on bitminter, and they are on other servers also, and a few pools and solo operations of their own.... They are using your dollars to make them the majority of the market-share. They will ship once they have used YOUR equipment long enough to make them millions, and decay the bitcoin value to nothing. Once they have accumulated enough bitcoins, they ship the units, and cash-out. Leaving you with your 5GHs machine only making 0.00001% of the market, while they have "built and are testing" with the unshipped 25% of the market.

This is what they are doing...

100 for me, 1 for you...
200 for me, 1 for you...
300 for me, 1 for you...
400 for me, 1 for you...

Etc... Watch... Three months, and they will do a major cash-out and crash the market down to $10 per BTC... Then try cashing-out for litecoins... since those will be worth more after the crash, and they can't manufacture them. (Or they will try that first, swapping the bitcoins for litecoins, and then cash-out on both markets.)

In the end, those 1.5Ths models will be making what our single-video-cards today make. Just with less power consumption, and less overhead.