Bitcoin Forum

This has been nominated as the official SegWit2x lock-in thread. Please post updates here as and when this momentous event flappens.

i think we can be 99.999% sure SegWit is locked in with BIP91 because according to https://coin.dance/blocks currently 183 out of 336 blocks (79.6%) are signalling their support and it only needs 80%.

there are 106 more blocks remaining from the 336 blocks but unless someone changes his mind, or new hashrate appears on the network with adding a huge amount to total hashrate i don't think this percentage can go down.

so far F2pool is the only big miner that is not signalling despite supporting the BIP91 for some weird reason which people call "trolling". maybe they wish to pull another LTC swing on us before the 2x rise comes :D

PS. 106 blocks is about 17-18 hours.

80%

All I want personally right now is not to have a chain split even If there a risk for that in the future because a lot of people disagree with the block size increase. We are getting there:

https://i.imgur.com/GzXAdJY.png

Anyone know when the next window starts if it is not locked in now?

~16 hours time.

Thanks

80 % miners vote for Segwit but 20 % Big- blockers oppose to them. They may build their own coin BCC bitcoin cash. They will run their own pools, mining, nodes and nework.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/segwit-reaches-80-of-the-hashrate-likely-to-soon-activate/ (https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/segwit-reaches-80-of-the-hashrate-likely-to-soon-activate/)
But everything can be changed, let's wait for the Aug 1. Hope the price of bitcoin will not dump because of this issue.

80.1%

81 blocks needed out of the remaining 101 (20 blocks diff), signalling at 80.1%. Still approximately 16 hours to go before this lock in period closes. F2Pool and Slush Pool might start signalling BIP 91 from tomorrow,  if we go at this current rate, lock in would happen in this window without any assistance from these two pools. They should have joined the party earlier.

the big blockers aren't 20%, they are about 40% supporting Emergent Consensus (BU). but they are also supporting SegWit!
the BCC crap is another story, it is just bitmain that is doing it and it has no community support, nor the developers support behind it.

also we don't have to wait for August 1, things will probably be locked in and clear in about half a day :D

79.8%

If F2pool just turned their miners off for half a day it would lock in.

Why are they not signalling?

They have not upgraded their pool yet, been signalling NYA support for a long time.

Back at 80%. This might be touch and go for the last ~15 hours.

GB miners switch to signal, will defo activate now.

...

What sorts of events can we expect between July 21  and August 1?

If it looks like SegWit2x locks in (I think that is good, at least it stabilizes things for a while), then what will happen between those dates?

Then after August 1, I presume we will see how SegWit actually works (how buggy, how accepted it is by the hold-outs, etc.).  How long do you all think that would take?  Two - three weeks?

Then I suppose the NEXT issue comes when Jihan/Ver start raising hell before Christmas (I read at another thread here)...

No more games!  UNIFY Bitcoin with proper code that is financially fair to all, else we risk HUGE losses, even to those who destroy the system.

Where do you read that?

https://www.xbt.eu/

Block 476688

Thanks. Didn't know they switched.

Looks like you may be correct sir.

80.4%

Too much playing with the signaling. Let's cross 80% already and get this shit done over with. Im sick of the stalling. Just activate segwit already.

At this rate it will not activate after 26 hours in the next period, hopefully f2pool and bitfury wake the fuck up and start signaling.

Slush Pool also announced they will switch today:

http://news.8btc.com/bitcoin-price-bounces-back-as-hard-fork-risk-is-getting-lower

Yup. So many people are simply so sick and tired of all the scaling games over these last 2+ years.

Some buying panic setting in, it seems. Price going up $10 per minute (currently $2,445 on Coindesk).

Nice!

This is the last chance to fill your bags with cheap BTC.

:)

CHEAP would have been the brave buyers who got in when BTC was down below $2100 or even lower just a few days ago.

I can't get any BTC here (on vacation in a non-friendly BTC town) yet, have to wait a few days.  I hope that I can get some before BTC goes to $3000 (making a dangerous assumption that all goes well in the next few days).

Stability to BTC would bring in new people and probably more merchants who would accept BTC as payment.  They real keys to BTC getting BIG (and price keep going up for a while).

There is always a next last chance... maybe when it drops from $10,000 to $6,000 one day... ;)

I'm sure many worse informed people are waiting on the sidelines for everything to be okay after August 1st. They will soon realize they are a bit late...

$2,481!

Well, you can never tell what will be the lowest point. I was waiting for an even lower price around $1,600, then bought me some once at $2,300. Good luck for your buying, hope you will still get some at a decent price!

What do you think are the dangers now? If it looks in, we are pretty much good for now (until November or so).

It's starting to look like the market is beginning to price in SegWit.

Yup.

$2,524.

I could do this all day long!  ;D

Please do.

$2,547

LOL. Every block found with signaling bip 91 takes bitcoin $50 higher. :)

For the good news, there is a speculation about f2pool signaling bip 91 soon. So it is at least guarenteed bip 91 lock in at least in the next period:
https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/887893285053779969

It is indeed very exciting moment if we can have Segwit lock-in before 1st of August, avoiding a chain split (for now).

Of course that they have to say something if they didn't signal yet, else they may start losing miners.
The things are going nicely on the right direction (especially the price!). Let's see for how long. Did the FUDers deplete their ammo?

When we get to the big city where I can buy BTC, I'll probably buy $500 or so worth, assuming nothing untoward happens.  I think that you are reading this correctly, we should be OK until Nov/Dec.

If the BTC price runs up a whole lot (say $4000 or higher), and it gets scary late this year, maybe then I'll cash-out.  Too many wankers messing with those of us who just want stability vs. drama.

I think bitcoin has a sense of humour 5 blocks mined in nearly 2 hours!

The probability of a lock in is now very high. It seems highly unlikely that unlucky variance will prevent it from locking in during this period. And if it would, next period is even more likely with F2pool and slush pool signaling by then.

Also looks like the market has priced this in. Happy I bought at 1900 :D

If no one (eg. Jihan) pulls the chair last minute to manipulate the market no more panic until November ;)

We are not over the line yet so I don't think everything has been priced in yet.

Happy that I bought BTC at all  ;D

https://image.ibb.co/cMqfS5/abc7_Copy.jpg

Massive buy walls returning to BTC.

81%

Finally Slush Pool has started signaling BIP 91, https://blockchain.info/block-height/476713

50 from 66 at 81%, 16 block difference, might get locked in.

I don't think that they will build a separate chain. It will be suicidal. If they have only 20% support, then creating a separate coin can be extremely risky. And look at what happened to Ethereum Classic.

Any reason for BIP91 getting these all these "fans" all of a sudden? It's been having a stratospheric rise no other BIP or proposal ever had...

I think everything will only be priced in after August 1st, maybe even after mid-August, when Segwit actually activates.

There must be a lot more people who don't follow the details that closely and only have "August 1st" in their head. They will be a little late to the party, but they will raise the price again. And who knows what will happen between now and August 1st.

Well, those who will not eventually join the more than 80% of miners who are signalling for Segwit are all free to build their own network...let's see which group can be left behind with the dust from the scaling debate. However, come August 1, I think there will be a unanimous decision and implementation of Segwit as those other groups don't want to be left behind in the coming surge of Bitcoin growth. That would be tantamount to shooting their own foot if they would be leaving the Bitcoin ship at this stage of its history. Ironically, it would be their own business interest that would prevail this time around...I am talking about their own interest of being in the forefront for the Bitcoin revolution.

84.7%!
BTC at $2660, back to a bull market perhaps?

F2Pool joined the party. https://blockchain.info/block-height/476718
Now it is somewhat certain that BIP 91 would get locked in within this window.

No one thought that BIP 91 could be locked in so soon, without much effort. A week back, I thought that there was hardly any chance of the proposal getting locked in. But this is like a lottery jackpot for all the users who hold Bitcoins in their wallet. Look at the exchange rates, they are on their way to $3,000 per coin. Check this:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

Exactly, more buy pressure will likely come when the lock in is done. But what I meant was priced in was the high probability for such a lock in. There is more upside if no pool is being an asshole near the finish line.

I doubt it. Whales control the market, and whales are well informed. That being said, I think that BTC price will continue to rise through and past 1 aug as people se the recent gains and FOMO kicks in. ~3500 by 5 aug then a correction is my guesstimate :D

35 from 50 blocks now.  Gonna be locked in by tonight and the newtork with get an increase in capacity of 80% in the next couple of days.

Nice. Can we say for definite that it's happening tonight?

Well, for it to not happen now some 20-25 percent of hashing power that is signaling now would have to stop signaling last minute. (Haven't done any statistical calculations, so milage may vary).

Wow... what an "everyone wins" scenario as we'll all have coins on both chains, and everyone can use and continue to support and invest the version of Bitcoin they want. :)

Really confused now. :/

In case there would be a hard fork, we can have two coins? Is that what it means? I can spend bitcoin1 and bitcoin2 independently without spending each other? Or is it if I spend bitcoin1, I lose the chance to spend bitcoin2?

82.6%

36 blocks to go.

As long as you don't suffer a replay attack vector yes you will have doubled your coinage.

Realize that most of the miners signaling BIP91 are not actually running the btc1 client, just a patched version of Core. For the SegWit2X 3 month hard fork to occur a majority of miners would actually have to follow through and switch from Core to btc1. To complicate matters Bitmain has been announcing they will fork Bitcoin to Bitcoin ABC on Aug 2. They say (https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip148/) they will not proceed if UASF does not activate, but we will have to see. They may just go ahead with the fork regardless. If you own the private keys to your bitcoin now you will also own the same amount of Bitcoin ABC if the fork occurs.

If you handle things correctly, you can spend coins on both chains. It might be a bit complicated but info will likely be available should that day come. In case of a split, don't touch the coins until things clear to avoid double spending and loosing coins on one chain.

Important note: In case of a chain split, your two versions of bitcoin WILL NOT be worth double your original money. In a best case scenario, value would redistribute proportionally to the support of each chain, so that your new coins combined are worth what your old coins were.

In reality however, such an event would likely cause massive market disruption, and decreasing trust and confidence of both chains. Exchange rate would plummet. The powerful trademark "Bitcoin" would be substantially weakened. I find it not unlikely that in the event of a chain split, we could see -90% on both sides, at least initially. See what happened to Ethereum when a hard fork over the DAO hack resulted in the blockchain split into ETH and ETC. Almost all value was erased initially. Both sides have long since regained, something I never would have guessed back then.

In my opinion, a chain split is something WE MUST AVOID AT ALL COST, to keep the confidence in Bitcoin as a currency. Although I think Bitmain will pull of their clown "Bitcoin ABC" later this year. No big harm done there though, no one would consider that bizarre fork a serious aspirant to be the true Bitcoin, market will not react catastrophically. Jihan will have to use his worthless private Bitmaincoin himself.

18 out of 33 left. For this to not lock in, we need to see a sudden drop in support from at least ~34% of the previous supporters.

Which means no single entity have any viable means to sabotage this, feels good :D If both AntPool and BTC.top would suddenly stop signaling, things would get tight.

Never question the ability of bitcoiners not to create some fuckin' drama. Sometimes this industry feels like a kindergarten.

Hi  Can some pls post a link to the best website to monitor this pls. ?
Thanks.   Kr

https://www.xbt.eu/

I don't know if it is the best, but it's the one I've been following.

https://coin.dance/blocks

Your 1 Bitcoin becomes 1 BitcoinCore and 1 BitcoinBTC1 the instant there is a hard fork. You can - if you are very careful spend each independently. However miners are not so lucky - after the split they must chose - they can only mine Core OR BTC1 - not both.

But given that there is such huge Miner support for BitcoinBTC1, BitcoinCore has a problem - if 80% of the miners switch to mining BitcoinBTC1 as they are currently demonstrating they will then there will be very few miners on BitcoinCore so blocks will take 5 time longer - 50mins (assuming 20% stick with BitcoinCore - or 10 times - so 1h40mins if only 10% stay mining). This is not an issue - everything will still works - just blocks may be full, fees may go up. Bigger issue is that rather than taking 2 weeks for the difficulty to reduce and so block times reduce it will take 10 weeks (or 20 weeks if only 10% stay with core). But again this is not a show stopper.

The big decider will be the relative price after the split. If BitcoinCore becomes worth a lot less - say 20% the price of BitcoinBTC1 then miners will be financially motivate to switch to BitcoinBTC1 - as will receive 4 times the income (until the difficulty resets 10 weeks later). This will then exacerbate the block time issue and the wait for a difficulty reset. And if too many switch from Core-> BTC1 the BitcoinCore blockchain may just grind to a halt and so become worthless.

Obviously the converse may happen if the price switches the other way - the miners are very financially driven so may stop supporting BTC1 very fast if the price of BTC1 drops vs BitcoinCore!

Then the other thing to consider is that every Bitcoin owner has in effect a vote. As they can sell one coin and buy the other. So moving the relative price - and so influencing the outcome. And since we think Bitcoin holders feelings are much more evenly split over Core vs BTC1 if a few big holders are brave enough to dump BTC1 straight after the HardFork and buy BitcoinCore the game could suddenly change! And am sure some of the Core developers are big holders of bitcoin....

My advice would be to just do nothing during the HardFork period until the dust settles - unless you are a keen gambler!

The block size part could easily go through without a hitch unless some of the miners cause melodrama, but why should they, after all agreeing to segwit2x

Very true indeed. Thats why I have been updating https://www.xbt.eu every minute since yesterday. Fear of the capriciousness of Jihan and his band. Looking forward to this getting over with, so GF can stop nagging me for being withdrawn   ;D

Think only risk for hard fork is someone dumping BitcoinBTC1 and buying BitcoinCore instantly after the hardfork for a few hours when there will be little volume on the exchanges and getting a load of headlines that BitcoinCore is worth more than BitcoinBTC1 - at which point some less committed miners start switching from BTC1 back to Core....

As we can see compromise is more profitable than continuing the fight. Bitcoin has been going up and I don't think the miners are going to risk that anymore after coming to an acceptable compromise.

My wife is the same.  :o

I'm now going to sleep. When I wake up BIP91 will have locked in which means it will be one of the most beautiful mornings.
Since I'll be sleeping the moment it locks-in, I'll go ahead and say it now. Congratulations, Bitcoin!

Hehe, how can staring annoyedly on exchange rate graphs and forum threads for days on end be considered boring behavior? Glad I lured her into both my reef tank and brewing hobbies before I got to far into crypto, now at least she has other things to do while I'm following the drama here.

I expect BitcoinCore 0.14.3 to be compatible with the larger blocks of BitcoinBTC1. Core devs wouldn't try to make people use a wallet that will be on a fork with no hash rate at all...

Woa, Antpool mined 4 blocks in 3 minutes, rare one. One was empty though..

Agree - the miner support now is nearly 95% if you include those signalling /NYA/ - at which point a hardfork is very safe - especially if BitcoinCore got behind it as that would drag the user base with it - and that would allow them to retain their control of the codebase - just with a slight bloody nose. Am sure as soon a 2Meg block happens BTC1 will shutdown with a job-done sign.

Who is brave enough to submit that pull request on GitHub!

Same here  (Though I will probably wake up in a couple of hours just of curiosity of the price) :)

hi minecache please explain for the inexperienced of us what this means.
is there a hidden meaning?
i dont understand it. is segwit2x about to happen to the Bitcoin network ???
can you help us

What I am really hoping - I know, most probably wishful thinking - is that Core and the NYA guys/miners/businesses sit down and negotiate a "better" hardfork. With more time for preparation (mid-to-late 2018) and more features that can be included, but with official Core team support. There seem to be many interesting technologies that could make Bitcoin even more scalable and fix some annoying bugs that need a hardfork,

This "Hardfork wishlist" (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardfork_Wishlist) seems a bit outdated. Does someone know a better one?

One way or another, the whole debate has pushed up the perception of how much effort a hard fork takes to get over the line.

This is good or bad, depending on your view of how discerning people can be about hard forks.

Does accepting a hard fork to fix a minor bug increase the chances that a hard fork that increased the maximum number of bitcoins would be accepted?

Near the start of the debate, there was a suggestion to try a non-controversial hard fork first before trying the block size one as a bit of a test run.  That would show that it can be done, at least for low controversy.


Some of those can be achieved with segwit or are already solved.

BIP91 LOCK-IN PERIOD:

26 blocks before current lock-in period ends. Still 11 blocks needed for a lock-in.
There are 83.2% BIP91 blocks mined in the current period.

Only 11 blocks needed. Damn that was fast. If I'm not mistaken yesterday it was around 70-100 blocks. I'm sure its gonna be lock-in the next few hours or so.

https://www.xbt.eu/

Only 0 more needed now. (heh, edited)

Wow, this sure moved fast. I was planning on buying again today thinking it might dip to 2k or lower and I log in to see 2900 on Polo. Oh well, good news though.

Five blocks to go. <3
This is gonna be my first official Bitcoin celebration tomorrow.

One block to go. That was fast! This has been fun to watch and I'm looking forward to seeing what comes next

We all know what is coming next... $3000 ATH!

I'm glad to be here in time to be part of the Bitcoin history :)

HODL strong!

It's official! What an exciting time to be part of the Bitcoin community.

Congratulations bitcoin! Relieving that this part of the drama was solved. Hehe, https://www.xbt.eu is down, guess a lot of people are trying to access it. Remember who said it first, over $3500 before aug 5, then downwards correction again.

Edit: Up again, apparently modifications were made ;)

What's next? Do we deal with the hard fork in November or is that pretty much unlikely at this point? Sorry if this seems like a silly question, I am still very new to cryptocurrency.

The 2 MB hard fork in SegWit2X is contingent on a majority of miners running the btc1 client. Right now there are only about a hundred btc1 nodes.

.... Non mining?  Mining?

People don't like chain splits.
BTC1 merged the BIP into their client.
SegWit will be activated through it.

Pick one. They're all true.

And how much hash power is behind those 100 nodes?

BIP91 LOCKED-IN
329 blocks until rejecting non-SegWit blocks.

https://www.xbt.eu/

Yes, it was already achieved guys.

Still I am having doubts. BIP 91 will be activated in the next few days but there is another step after that. If I am not wrong, then the hard fork will be activated only after 3 months. And the situation can change by then. I think that the 80% support is required for this stage as well.

good article here: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bip-91-has-activated-heres-what-means-and-what-it-does-not/

It says "This means that after another 336 blocks, a little over two days from now, all BIP 91–compatible nodes will reject any block that doesn’t include bit 1."

then "In that case, BIP 141 should lock in by mid-August, and SegWit should be live on the Bitcoin network after a two-week “grace period” by the end of that month."

---

What is the difference and why It will take that long? the first one doesn't necessary means that SegWit will actually get activated? It will simply reject blocks?

One more thing, BIP91 should be compatible with UASF right? so running a BIP148 node could work with this SegWit2x or btc1 downloading is a must?

i don't know why BIP141 needs to lock in SegWit again, that part doesn't make sense to me at all but the reason you ask is because BIP141 (unlike BIP91) needs a full difficulty adjustment period which is much longer and about 2 weeks (BIP91 is 336 blocks or 2.33 days)

and as far as i know these BIPs each look at the block versions and need to see the correct one. BIP91 is using bit 4 version and BIP141 (an i think BIP148 too) look for bit 1. so this needs to change.

About 95% http://bitcoin.sipa.be/versions.html

I think these BIP make us lot confuse about understanding. Previously many people didn't support for Bitcoin split, now I think they are not splitting anymore. So how long it will take for the actually procedure of these Segwit.

So if in a few days miners will start rejecting non-segwit voting blocks, how come some of them are still mining non-segwit voting blocks? If they keep doing this they will reject their own blocks?

Does the bip91 code in BTC1 automatically change the block version to signal for segwit when it activates in a few days?

Wow this is indeed fast huh.
I didn't see this coming but I was just surprised earlier in the morning when I saw the exchange and bitcoin hits $2700 and I didn't know now if I should expect more this coming weekend.
But it seems that the bitcoin community is happy now with the rate. More way to go!

Segwit needs bit 1 to be set by 95% of miners during a 2 week period.

BIP-91 doesn't actually lock-in segwit.  What it does is reject any blocks that don't have bit 1 set.

This means that once BIP-91 activates, all blocks will vote for segwit.  Any that don't will be rejected by 80%+ of miners and so will be orphaned off, and can be ignored.

From the perspective of (non-btc1) segwit enabled nodes, it looks like suddenly 100% of the miners started voting for segwit.

With 100% effective vote, segwit will lock-in and then 2016 blocks later, activate.

They did this since it was safer.  They have tested segwit locking-in using bit 1.

Any node that understands the segwit bit will realise that segwit has locked in, rather than only btc1.


You don't need to update your client for the time being.  Using btc1 would mean that your client rejects non-segwit blocks.  The only difference would be that sometimes the core client would say that a transaction has 1-2 confirms and the suddenly it goes back to unconfirmed.  Btc1 should give the correct number of confirms.

The recommendation is that for the time being, you should wait for at least 6 (or more) confirms before considering the payment confirmed.  Even 2 confirms could end up reversed, if they happen to be miners who didn't vote for segwit.

Eureka!! Segwit era started.

Yes, the fears seem to disappear at last. Lets see how much it goes up

Waiting on six (or more) confirmations might indeed be smart in the coming days.  That, of course if everyone does that, will slow down the NUMBER of transactions, but that does not look like a severe problem to me, other than those who need speed.

So, incoming BTC to me will have to wait a little longer to be spent for a little while.  OK.  Big deal.  And as long as SegWit2x is stable and implemented well, we win.

Now people are saying there won't be a hard fork anymore hence the splitting off of the blockchain.

This is very confusing and the timeline of when this was sposse to happen is drawing nearer with less than two weeks left to go. :-[

Does does this mean no split on August 1st? and BTC will be safe in online exchanges?

Will remember that. We will see how close you were with your guess.  :)

I wouldn't dare to make any prediction right now. Except that the trend will be UP in the coming months.

As recommended before you should get your bitcoin off exchanges, Coinbase, etc before July 29. This post (https://medium.com/@jimmysong/pathological-bip91-uasf-scenarios-102e2707991c) explains some things that could go wrong with BIP91. There is also the possibility that Bitmain may go ahead with their hardfork to Bitcoin ABC on Aug 2.

It seems we are not done yet. There is still a danger ahead. We better stop celebrating and prepare for the next level.

Jimmy Song just posted an article about the possible dangers:
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/pathological-bip91-uasf-scenarios-102e2707991c

He basically says miners still can betray the NYA and fuck everything up.

Sure. They will ensure the sentiment for the 2x is getting done as well.

No breaking. All good.

This is getting business style, get ready man or do you want to stay ranting nichy all time?

someone pass the popcorn
www.xbt.eu

I'm hoping that we don't have a hard fork...I would really prefer not to split off into 2 or more versions of bitcoin.  I have been using bitcoin for a number of years, but I still have to admit, a lot of these scaling options go way over my head.   I definitely agree it needs to be scaled to be ready for a ton more transactions, but when people ask me about the different scaling options, I have no idea how to explain it to anyone :(

Hey Segwit!

How does it feel to get activated? Pretty cool, isn't it?

If I have my btc stored on my electrum wallet will I be safe from a split? Or should i go with paper?

229 Blocks still remaining in the grace period. But I am surprised that around 7% of the blocks are still being mined by the pools which does not support BIP 91 (the latest being block number 476890 mined by Bitcoin Russia). Will they continue to do this even after the grace period? In that case, they will lose all the coins they mine, right?

You are safe when you own the private keys to your Bitcoins. Because when the fork happens you can choose which chain to claim coins on.

That's a bit confusing.

One can claim his bitcoin on any chain he wants as long as he holds the private keys of the "root" bitcoins. I am also too confused with this stuff so i just pulled the plug on anything online. Extracted my priv keys, wrote them down and waiting.

That's the %100 safe way. Don't let your wallets to get connected to the internet.If 2 or more forks happen, you'll have coins on every chain. No need to choose.

I'm not that concerned. There won't be a hard fork and there's no need to panic. You won't have access to both chains because there won't be any new chains. That's quite simple really. ;)

Now that BIP91 is kicking in segwit then BIP148/UASF/august 1st deadline is no longer a treat, so you could in theory be able to leave your coins in an exchange or in an online wallet without risking losing the coins due a split and they don't supporting one of the splits but of course, dont be leaving your coins online anyway, better be extra safe than sorry.

Good to see that seeing BIP91 has activated and August 1st is not scary anymore,well i transferred all of my coins from exchanger and online wallet to my electrum wallet, i was getting anxious regarding what the future may hold due to BIP148 event, i even sold some of them which is bad, i was just too worried about, for some people who are not technical person/tech savvy it's very confusing to secure and survive in August 1st. I heard that if you don't control your Bitcoin properly some bad things may happen like your bitcoin will be zero due to the wallet choose a wrong chain which is very scary.

Yes, in the case of BIP148 for example, if BIP148 split happened, and BIP148 won by getting the most hashrate, the legacy chain would reorg, this means the legacy chain would die, ALL transactions every would disappear, this is actually good because there wouldn't be two perpetual chains, but of course, it's bad if you don't know what you are doing and your exchange of choice does not support BIP148.

But right now its pretty safe, nothing will happen, but in any case, I would recommend having your coins locked safely until segwit is officially working within the system so thats around late august.

What's the latest update please?

BIP91 LOCKED-IN. 154 blocks until rejecting non-SegWit blocks.

https://www.xbt.eu/

Just 154 blocks to go. I think in 2 days time we are sure that 100% will me mined with BIP91.

Thanks. So all gud so far?

since the amount of support for SegWit with signalling the BIP141 is very high at the moment (it is almost all of the hashrate which is more than 96%) i think it is safe to say "all is good so far". and things are really starting to look up, and price is showing it too.

The good thing with the recent fights between supporters of each proposal is that SegWit has finally received unanimous approval by all miners. Whether or not BIP91 does go through Segregated Witness will most definitely come through now that miners are in support of it.

i'll keep an eyes on this thread.

Thanks

True lots of miners now support the proposal for segwit and now we are waiting for the time to come when it will be activated. lets just hope that the momentum will be stop by some fudster.

Its really incredible how this miners suddenly jumped in and save the day for us. Of course, if they didn't it will literally cost them millions of dollars to begin with. And yes I'd say we are all good now. I agree with the posters saying that it will just be like 2 days before we got the magic number. Funny those miners just waited for literally just 1 week before the looming split of the network. Anyways, the price will really push a lot in the coming days.

What's incredible is that you can possibly think that when the very same miners were the ones who held back on activating segwit the proper way, fucking it up for everyone and making a safe process precarious. Even though we're getting segwit, we're now staring down the barrel of a rushed miner code driven hard fork.

So far so good. 141 blocks until rejecting non-SegWit blocks. Really cool so to monitor and see how slowly the process takes but at least it has averted a split of the coins. Let's see how investors will react then. Will there be a panic buying next? I hope so. The price can then go up and maybe push to $3000 or more. Any thoughts about that?

Hopefully it is clear and concise to all parties that working together is in the best interest of all. The politics of Bitcoin has held this coinage back 2+ years now. Let's scale and build shit.

Thanks. My personal opinion is that we all need to work together to scale and build on the Bitcoin protocal. If we do then I belive we will see $4000/BTC by years end. If not its price will be in the dust for a couple of reasons: firstly people will abandon it as they are so sick and tored of all the politics, and secondly they will not trust it as a store of value. SegWitx2 is and was a 11th hour proposal and solution. I was close to quitting Bitcoin myself.

Corrected a bit

I agree. The last few years internal bitchin and trolling of differing politics over Bitcoin did damage it's reputation. It's time to bury our differences and build.

This is not entirely correct, you can only choose which coins to spend if the fork comes with replay protection, and without it spending coins on either chain will result in the same transaction on another chain. Bitcoin ABC will feature replay protection, but Segwit2x most likely not.


It seems like most people have very poor understanding of what's happening, everyone is cheering and to-the-mooning because they think that chain-split was averted, but maybe the big split just became more real.

Rejecting the non-segwit blocks should start in how many hours exactly? 24 hours ?

114 blocks at last count which is ~19 hours.

BIP141 support looks very solid, even long before the end of the gracing period. Some 98 percent by now. If miners are not lying, and have indeed switched to compatible software, everything should be fine when BIP91 activates in 101 blocks.
https://coin.dance/blocks

Another way you can split you coins in 2 chains, is to add to you coins a little bit of a coin from a newly minted block after the fork, of course those coins will only exist on 1 of the chains, so if it is replayed on the other chain, the transaction will be invalid and be rejected by the nodes/miners.

Is it o.k to send Bitcoin to and from various accounts and processors/wallets? I wanted to move around a little BTC to purchase some altcoin I want. Is it safe to do so at this time or not?

It is safe, what the devs recommend is that people store their bitcoins in a private key they control before august 1. Right now we can do whatever we want with our coins and it will not affect anything. But if there would be hard forks on august 1, then it is really best to store everything on a private keys you own, since if it is in exchangers then that would mean they will decide for you.

Thank you so much for your kind reply. I will move around what I need to move the next two or three days to purchase a coin I want and keep the rest of the Bitcoin in a wallet I control the keys. I really appreciate your help in this matter and clarifying this for non technological people like myself.  :)

It is also best if you follow what theymos and the others are saying.

Read up what they are saying here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2012799.0

The people discussing there are much more knowledgeable, so if you got further questions, better ask it there, as the devs are much more active in that official thread. Good luck my friend.

This, we need segwit activated, I think when the time comes to try a hard fork some are going to refuse to follow up their previous intentions and we are going to avoid a split on the network, at least that is what I expect, we need to realize that bitcoin is stronger if we remain united and avoid the fork.

Still doesn't answer the question and raises another regarding what you refer as "lottery jackpot".


I'd say that simply people don't like stalemates.


What I find incredible is how miners did a 180 degree turn. They must have something up their sleeve or are really confident on quickly scaling Bitcoin.


I agree, but it's sad we have to bury our differences favoring one groups' opinions. Bitcoin will eventually get through this an improve anyways :)

Safe for now but be wary for the month end.

Actually the miner behavior here is highly predictable. If we start with ~83% of the hashrate rejecting non segwit blocks or at least threatening to  then the risk for a miner to mine a non segwit block or mine on top of a non segwit block is simply not worth it. Rejecting a non segwit block before mining on top of it effectively means enforcement. My take is that we will see segwit lock in at the end of the next difficulty period with 100% support. This will happen around August 12th with segwit activation towards the end of August.

What happens next is what gets interesting; namely the 2x part of the New York Agreement. This is scheduled for BTC1 clients 3 months after segwit lock in or around mid November. It is at this point where the real controversy and possible chain splits could occur. 

3 blocks till activation.

https://coin.dance/blocks

http://i67.tinypic.com/28hoc5u.png

BIP91 activated. Non-segwit block rejection phase begins.

Non SW2X blocks now being rejected.

what does "Witness Commitment" mean on https://www.xbt.eu/?

EDIT. Found this:
I'm monitoring a new element on https://www.xbt.eu : "Witness Commitment". Now we can see if pools will misbehave or not.

if they don't have the SegWit commitment thing, it means they won't mine any blocks with SegWit transactions in it, although the blocks will be valid. they may end up even mining emptier blocks (less fees for them!).
those with commitment will mine SegWit transactions.

it is my understanding that this has nothing to do with activation, lock in, rejection, etc. it is mostly political crap.

Has anyone been following core devs response to this?  Are we gonna see btc1 merged into core?  Do I need to update my node (I think not since I'm not mining with it)?

Canoe pool was the only major mining pool which was refusing to signal BIP 141 earlier. Even they are signaling it now (check block number 477103), and therefore I don't think that any block is going to get rejected.

this is what i understand and for that i say we don't need a merge for now:

BTC1 or SegWit2x has 3 parts:
1. signalling bit 4 (BIP91) and then if it was locked in, reject any blocks that are not signalling. since this was nearly all of the blocks and also because of 2 is happening right now, i don't see why we even need this.
2. signalling bit 1 (BIP141) which is happening now again with almost all of the miners. and this is already in bitcoin core and nodes are seeing this part already. again no need to merge anything.
3. (this is why i said not for now) the 2 MB hard fork part. and that is not happening for a couple of months and until that day and until we know how much of hash power is really going for it and a lot of other things, there is no need to merge anything.

What's the latest news? Are we gud to go?

All though the first step has been concluded, There is still the second part to go, which is above the 60% right now, When is the deadline for signaling bit 1 to complete and what does it have to do with August 1. Can u please explain to me.

It looks like SegWit BIP141 will be active about this August 23. The 2 MB hard fork is contingent on a majority of miners switching from Core to the btc1 client.

So Segwit lockin is looking 99% sure now so that decision is made. Next decision is the 2Meg hardfork in mid November.

95%++ of miners were signalling that they agreed with the approach of segwit then 2m hardfork. But now that the segwit part has been concluded they seem to have stopped signalling for the hardfork! Which is very odd - as if this was what they wanted they could have just signalled for segwit originally and not had this whole segwit2 lockin process....

A hardfork with 95% miner support would have been very safe - but now we have no idea what they are going to do! Currently only 25% are signalling for the hardfork with bigger blocks! If that is the case we are stuck at 1M....

But what is even more strange is that 85% of the miners are still including /NYA/ in their coinbase - which is a non-binding indication that they support 2M blocks?

All I can think is that they switched back to the bitcoin core code as feel it is more reliable for the segwit activation? And will switch back to BTC1 soon after.

But all they are creating is doubt with will stop exchanges/payment processors/users switching to btc1 - and we need 100% to migrate by Nov for the hardfork to be as smooth as the bip91 cut in was.

That's not correct. There is no signal for the hard fork, only the NYA comment in the coinbase that they're committed to doing so. The hard fork is assumed to already be locked in based on the signalling that's already happened. Of course that doesn't mean that they'll go ahead with it unless they all use btc1 compatible clients...

there are a couple of things that i am currently confused about too.
BIP91 was supposed to reject blocks. but i am not sure which blocks, blocks that didn't signal with version bit 4 (which BIP91 uses) or blocks that didn't signal with version bit 1 (which BIP141 uses).
it is activated nonetheless and is supposed to reject blocks!! if someone could clarify which one would be great.
my guess is version bit 1 since most miners dropped bit 4 already and are on 1 :D

as for BIP141 and the version bit 1 they are already signalling with 100% support see this: https://www.xbt.eu so there is nothing to reject anyways.
as i always said bitcoin is too big and too expensive to split. 12.5BTC+fees is nearly 35000$. signalling against majority (this 100%) means you miss that much money when your block is rejected.

OK - yes that makes sense then - although continuing to signal would be "nice".

Anyone checked in the codebase what happens if you upgrade from Core->BTC1 in say Oct and do not re-download the blockchain? In that case how would the upgraded BTC1 client know that bit 4 had locked in?

Was bit 1 that would be rejected.
And the fact that everyone is signalling with bit 1 shows that any blocks that are not signalling with bit 1 ARE being rejected (anyone seen any - none in the orphan list on blockchain.org) - although if blockchain.org was running btc1 they would be invalid rather than orphans.

SEGWIT LOCK-IN PERIOD:
Lock-in in this period? No
483 blocks before current lock-in period ends. Still 959 blocks needed for a lock-in.
62.4% SegWit blocks mined in this lock-in period.

https://www.xbt.eu/

Can someone explain what going on? I thought its already locked in but why the website says "NO"?

BIP91 was locked in and activated not Segwit (BIP141).

BIP91 was an alternative to activate Segwit by lowering the signalling threshold to 80% from 95% of BIP141 (Segwit)

Right now Segwit wouldn't get locked in this period because 959 blocks are required while only 483 blocks are left and the percentage is 62.4%, 95% is required.

After this there are seven more activation periods, http://segwit.co/

https://coin.dance/blocks

why exactly is it called "lock-in" phase ?

Lock-in can be called an intent period, an intent to activate a future event. The intent gets locked-in.

If I am right then there is lock-in period, grace period, and then activation.

BIP141 (Segwit) requires 95% (1916 from 2016 blocks) of hashpower to get locked-in.

After locked-in it's two weeks grace period.

After grace period it's activation.

Segwit is expected to be locked-in by August 10 and be activated by August 23.

What locked-in (and activated) was BIP91.  That is an agreement for all miners to vote for segwit (and also the 2MB HF in November).

Now that BIP91 is active, 100% of miners must vote SW.  This means that SW is guaranteed to lock-in and then activate.  It hasn't yet though.  The vote takes 2 weeks and when the vote passes, SW will be considered locked-in.  It will activate 2 weeks later.

Thanks guys for clearing this up. I was also a bit confused and the last few replies has really helped.

This is a good way for them to ensure the success of hardfork, segwit will definitely be enabled however, I suppose there are some people disagree, so 100% is a wrong number.

100% is really a wrong number because if there would be perfect number then there would be no voting at all on the very first place and instead of making some negotiations or polls they would directly go the same thing since they are all agreed on the same stuff. Theres always a side who would really reject on such actions. I will say 99.99% would be better :D

first of all SegWit is a soft fork not a hard fork (unless you are talking about something else) and currently the 100% signal is for SegWit soft fork.
and it is not a wrong number, why would you even say that
oh and by the way this signalling has so little with the 2 MB hard fork which is scheduled for later!

correct me if i am wrong but if you don't signal for SegWit at this point (which is the locked in phase of BIP91) your block will be orphaned. so there shouldn't be anything else than 100%

No, it's 100% now.  Miners agreed a new rule which says that if you produce a block which doesn't vote for SW, then it counts as invalid.  Miners who produce non-SW blocks are throwing their hashing power away.  Their blocks will not be part of the chain.  This means that the chain will show a 100% vote for SW from now until it locks in.

It clearly won't be activated during this period but 100% on the next one If miners continue signalling it. I just want to know, each activation period is 2016 blocks, how much time is that? like in days or weeks.

It's 2 weeks (2016 blocks * 10 mins = 2 weeks). It is often slightly faster, if the hash rate is rising.

~14 days.

Latest update:

SEGWIT LOCK-IN PERIOD:
SW lock-in this period? No.
Period ends at ≈Thu, 27 Jul 2017 07:08:07 GMT.
Lock-in threshold expected at ≈Tue, 08 Aug 2017 00:09:07 GMT.
Next period ends at ≈Tue, 08 Aug 2017 14:49:07 GMT.

208 blocks before current lock-in period ends. Still 684 blocks needed for a lock-in.
68.1% SegWit blocks mined in this lock-in period.

https://www.xbt.eu/

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2017/07/27/Screenshot_20170727-175331.png

New Segwit activation period has begun. Segwit is currently projected to lock in during this period, around August 8.

https://coin.dance/blocks
https://www.xbt.eu

SEGWIT LOCK-IN PERIOD:
SW lock-in this period? Probably.
Period ends at ≈Wed, 09 Aug 2017 01:26:26 GMT.
Lock-in threshold expected at ≈Tue, 08 Aug 2017 10:46:26 GMT.
Next period ends at ≈Mon, 21 Aug 2017 09:07:26 GMT.

1392 blocks before current lock-in period ends. Still 1292 blocks needed for a lock-in.
100% SegWit blocks mined in this lock-in period.

https://www.xbt.eu/

MOnitor and wait. Hope everything is fine. BTC is BTC. BTC isn't BCC , BTU or any name. Keep the price of BTC UP after everything passed. Let'see and wait.

We are one the final hours countdown folks.

Hehe, I would say I was pretty damn close ;) A few hours left if aug 5, now lets just see how far it will rise before the correction.

Its already Aug 5 and I think we almost got to $3500. Bitcoin is breaking ATH left and right. Some say's it reaches as far as $3200-$3500 to some exchanges. For consistency, I'm putting it again:

SEGWIT LOCK-IN PERIOD:
SW lock-in this period? Probably.
Period ends at ≈Wed, 09 Aug 2017 06:20:52 GMT.
Lock-in threshold expected at ≈Tue, 08 Aug 2017 15:40:52 GMT.
Next period ends at ≈Mon, 21 Aug 2017 14:01:52 GMT.

524 blocks before current lock-in period ends. Still 424 blocks needed for a lock-in.
100% SegWit blocks mined in this lock-in period.

Only few days and still we needed 424 blocks. But I'm speculating that we can met it. We will have to wait and see again.

The 2x part seems like a compromise in between Core's plan and BCash. I think that if the majority miners continued to show support for a blocksize increase with bitcoin, BCH could remain relevant to the day that this happens. A third "bitcoin" now seems more viable after BCash, but would likely have a different reception if the majority of miner support continued following it.

Very happy to actually see segwit come to the main chain soon so we can move on with our damn lives. Hopefully the lightning network comes soon as well and business decide to build applications here again.

BCH is already dead. If exchanges are asking for a high amount of confirmations, Its probably so they make more profit while the price is not that low, the minute miners start finding new block as fast as BTC, Its gonna crash in a matter of seconds. HitBTC is the only exchange currently asking for two confirmation and It has the lowest price. Back to SegWit2x, I doubt that miners will be against it, because they signed an agreement (NYA) so It's not possible to back down at this point, is it?