Bitcoin Forum

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.


Read full article: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@skydweller/top-reasons-why-i-predict-a-bitcoin-bear-market-in-q4-2017 (https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@skydweller/top-reasons-why-i-predict-a-bitcoin-bear-market-in-q4-2017)

Agree or Disagree?
Tell me in the comments ;)

I would disagree. The pump seems far from over right now, and in fact we are nearing teh $4000 mark once again. I'm almost certain that it will be able to breach that $4000 level and potentially go up to reach an all time high before the end of the year.

Though, i have the feeling that bitcoin may be in a bubble right now.

It's just that the bubble will not completely pop this year. We've seen it deflate a little but i would say that it'll go up even more this year before the potential crash next year.

Yes.  ;D

First, what do you mean by bear market?  A common definition of a bear market in the stock market is when a financial instrument is down at least 20% from its high.  If you use that definition, we're already there.  If not, are we talking about the price being lower at the end of Q4 than at the beginning?  Or are we talking about another move lower, below $3k?  The details of exactly what happens are anyone's guess.  The author of that article gives compelling reasons for why bitcoin could go lower in the short term, but ultimately it's up to the market, and so I think it's important to look at price and volume to see what the market is telling us.

Here's my take: we had a blink-and-its-over crash and bounce off $3k, and we've been stuck in a (rather large) trading range since then.  I feel like the market is looking for a reason to go higher, but it's having trouble finding one right now.  Without something significantly positive, we're going to have trouble breaking up into the mid $4000s.  Many times, jarring market moves will have some sort of follow-through (e.g., crash-bounce-crash).  Additionally, a bounce on weak volume, as pointed out in the article, shows little interest in reversing the trend (and making it positive again), which does point to a fragile market that could easily crash again on more bad news.  Market participants need a reason to buy.  Without one, I think that the odds currently favor another leg down.

Are you crazy? :) The crash was because of China. Sept 14 was when BTCC confirm that they would stop operating in China https://twitter.com/YourBTCC/status/908285586368167936

I'd say that OP is not crazy for using the mild terms mainly because Bitcoin did bounce back. The crash, I'd say was not exactly because of China but moreso because of the fearful investors who didn't want to lose their money. They backed out following the news. Because of this, it's possible that OP meant that China was a big factor; but not necessarily the whole of the story.

I don't think so, the bear market will last for a while in Q4 of 2017, it will end if FUD is stopped, mainly about China regulations, and Jamie Dimon words mean nothing without ban news from China. OKCoin and Huobi  will halt all trading services for local customers by the end of October and uncertain hard fork planned on November which mean; bitcoin price will fall down in the mid-end of October, or maybe not at all.
We have entered the end of September, bitcoin price at $3939, slowly increases, headed to $4000. Maybe could reach $4500 in October before another dip happen, uncertain price in November, but will recover by the end of this year.

We already may be in a bear market, but 2017 has been an outstanding year for Bitcoin. Nobody could have predicted how far we would come. To rise from $1000 to $5000 would have seemed unbelievable to some.

eh

september was a bear market. I expect october to be fairly neutral, probably stay in the $4000s, maybe pass $5000.

The one legit reason the article had was segwit2x. I do expect another bear market in november, but once the hard fork is over with I expect the rise to continue in December. Then again, maybe after the last fork people realize that it is smarter to hold onto bitcoin heading into a fork because you get free money, rather than selling and losing out on the free forked coins.

We should not discuss furthermore about that scenario here, but I guess the recovery is just starting now because if you are going to look at the current trend; the price is rising smoothly. That's why more bitcoin analyst and investors started to put back their assets again. By the end of this might bring the price into topmost price as been speculated previously.

If i yes then you might become a happy because it is happened you should need to believe that it will cross around 10,000USD soon so believe in that too because it will cross a phone number. So keep predicting.

Some? I am quite sure that 99% of the people wouldn't believe you if you would say that the market would reach $5000 before the end of 2017. I personally only consider the planned hard fork in November to be a temporary obstacle, and that's really it. I don't feel comfortable selling any of my coins anymore due to the fact that the profits we're making right now, are peanuts compared to the profits we'll be making in the next years -- we just need to have some patience. :)

Bitcoin has doubled nearly 11 times since Nov 2012, on average every 6 months. That equates to a whopping 160,000% rise.

Do you really consider a 25% drop a "bear market"?

Wake me up when it falls 75%. Even then, Bitcoin would still have doubled 8 or 9 times since 2012. And probably still recover.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2203360.0

https://i.imgur.com/8CW7IQQ.png

No matter what others say, people should construct their own ideas about bitcoin price. We're sharing too many graphs and some of them could cause disinformation in the community.

I don't expect any bear market from bitcoin in 2017.

No, the market had already fallen $1200 by then. That was just an excuse for a final capitulation and stop run below $3000. There was uncertainty for weeks in the market already. If anything, disaster news like that always means buy the next dip. Sell the rumor, buy the dip.


The correction was 40%, not 25%. And you are correct that this doesn't necessarily indicate a bear market (in crypto), but rather just volatility in a bull market. But remember, everyone is a genius in a bull market. You won't feel like a genius if this is the last chance to sell in the $4000s. As a survivor of 2013, I would just advise people to exercise caution. Exuberance will get you killed in this market.

People like to compare the price with the week/month before. But if you look at the price since 2013 this is another story. No need to go up to 2013, we can consider just 9 months ago while the price was at 1000$. In 9 months the value increased by 400%, so don't worry we can deal with a -25%
In January, a lot of folks were saying Bitcoin is SOOOO expensive

None of your arguments seem sufficiently relevant to predict a bearish market at the end of the year. Bad rumours, uncertainty and pessimistic technical analyses have been permanently present over the years in the development of bitcoin, and none of this has significantly damaged the great progress of this currency.

On the contrary, the simple fact that bitcoin is staying at a fairly stable price level in spite of the furious attacks from its enemies, makes me suppose with enough confidence that in a few days it will be resuming its upward trend with more strength than ever.

Volume has started to pick up though. There is sufficient demand for bitcoin from those who think "this is our last chance of buying".

In particular, this year has seen big legit investors expressing an interest in bitcoin, people who would normally be buying Apple shares, but now think they need a bit of bitcoin in their portfolio.

That said, the drama that will come in Nov with the next hard fork might derail things.

I am not agree with your opinion.Next hard fork has nothing to affect under current market conditions.Investors already bought rumors and they are ready to sell facts after hard fork.

Geez you really don't understand the severity of this upcoming hard fork and the destruction it will cause to both bitcoin as a tech and its economy.

Plenty of corpses on Tradingview calling a bear market...
You only forgot to add the bubble chart, so being the nice person I am, I did that for you

https://einvestingforbeginners.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/bubble-phases.jpg

I dont know.. but i dont think that bitcoin will have a bearish trend, we are leaving the red zone and bitcoin is upto $4,2k again, so i am happy with those numbers right now, maybe you are right.. But i hope that this is not going to happen, since i have a lot of plans with my bitcoins and i would not like seeing bitcoin go down again.
so lets see how the market goes in the next days, nobody can predict right now.

Yeah definitely. I think that this year at least we will see plenty more growth.

However, next year we could definitely see some bearish market activities. The fact of the matter is that every 4 years when the halving comes the price absolutely skyrockets and the years in betwen the price will go down drastically.

But still, i'd expect price to at least to reach another all time high by the end of the year.

I would agree with you if you changed Q4 in 2017 to Q2 in 2018.

Personally i don't see any sort of bear market or major correction coming until around April or May next year. There are still a lot of people taking on long positions on bitcoin and certainly a lot more institutional investors than before.

But we are in a bubble, and it will pop eventually in the form of a bear market. As i said, it'll probably happen Q1 or Q2 next year.

This could definitely happen if further news come out of China or they ban bitcoin mining along with bitcoin exchanges. However, this is pure speculation and if this does not happen then i don't really think we'll be seeing a bear market this year.

Potentially next year as others have said, though.

One of your reasons is that the volume is low - which imo, it really is not. A lot of Chinese volume has actually gone unaccounted for, since they have moved onto p2p trading.

Well, I doubt we'll see a new ATH this year, but not primarily due to the reasons you've mentioned in your article on Steemit; value of BTC still seems quite inflated and probably 'needs' to bottom out (traders selling off profits and/or weak hands) to initiate a new bullrun. So from our current perspective a bear market is likely to occur in the coming months.

By your logic, this could be true anytime that price makes new highs. How do you account for parabolic bull runs, then? During such rallies, speculators call tops all the way up, with similar logic. It's too early to say that Bitcoin is in a bear market or long term trading range. For that reason, I'd be wary of applying "overbought" arguments to it. While I won't rule out a bear market, this could easily be a consolidation before the next leg up.

For sure bitcoin will reach up 4500USD soon because as it is seen then it will go through that soon because look at the market the speed of bitcoin is increasing is already enhanced once again.

Yeah, you should to imagine the worst situation can happen while you not be alert about it.
The price of Bitcoin is unstable, everything can happens when you do not ready.

Well I agree to your points, especially on the part about the Segwit 2x possible hardfork, the undying FUDs, and Bitcoin uncertainty. I also think that Bitcoin will crash as we approach the month of november since there might be a hardfork due to Segwit2x. And we cannot avoid many FUDs on that time. So nice gathering these points to make your conclusion.

The same incorrect prediction happened last fork - instead of dumping, the price went up. DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH so many dumb fuckers

That $51xx ($5180 afair) was also my exact projection (when BTC was $2300ish) for the first possible price for the top of this current bull. I had observed a similar ratio pattern. Did we really already reach that top when we nearly hit $5000?

So since Australia’s securities regulator has now come out and said ICOs are securities (https://twitter.com/C1aranMurray/status/913282785221148672), and South Korea now confirming (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2208231.msg22343015#msg22343015) my predictions of ICO bans in major nations, then my question is does the death of ICOs drag proof-of-work issued coins down also, or does everyone sell their ICOs and buy Bitcoin, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash?


I would appreciate very much your thoughts?

Some have speculated that after China’s election in October, then BTC trading will be reinstated in China. I’m more pessimistic about ICO issued tokens (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2208231.0).

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LTCBTC appears to me to be in a bullish triangle (wedge) preparing for a massive breakout to the upside over next months. 0.01 is the resistance of the triangle, which has been rock solid. We’d need to have seen lower lows on LTCBTC in order to be in a bearish mode, but we haven’t. Our minimum upside was 0.03 BTC which has not been achieved yet.

Also thus far this correction is less severe than the 2013/4 crash. That Mt.Gox driven flash crash caused BTCUSD to decline more than 60% and LTCUSD more than 80%. So far on this correction, BTCUSD only declined 40% and LTCUSD only 60%. So possibly we might have another leg up still or at least rising back to a double-top.

If we still have to see the original predictions of $1500 and $150 for LTC and BCH, then that would put BTC topping out at 0.03 - 0.05 w.r.t. to LTC so BTC reaching no higher than ~$5000. Perhaps BTC will double-top in the $5100s which was my original top price.

BCHUSD and BCHBTC have a similar bullish wedge pattern as LTCBTC (whereas LTCUSD has a similar blowoff topping pattern as BTC). This indicates a possibility that BTC and LTC are moving towards their tops, and then BCH will lag and rise magnificiently. Which coincides with the fanatical theory about BTCSegWit dying a fiery death. If BCH went to $1500 while BTC declined to $3000, that would a 5X gain in BCHBTC.

Yeah, I was thinking about the fork earlier today and wondering what effect that's going to have on all the crypto markets, and how I want to play it.  I, too, would like to hold on to as much bitcoin as I can before the November fork.  And then there's also the bitcoin gold fork in October...more free coins! :)  But somewhere, somehow, this is going to have to take some kind of toll.  We can't just keep forking bitcoin every month so everyone gets free money.

All of those things are going to have a temporary effect on bitcoin at worst and will do nothing at best, the really worrying thing is the hard fork of segwit2x if it happens that is going to seriously affect bitcoin for a long time because most miners will leave the network.

im not sure wih your prediction, but i hope its a true, im still holding somt bitcoin to selling at higher price

Do you even know what a is a bear market? A bear market is a market full of sellers and people that are thinking the price is going to go down, if you are  holding your bitcoin to sell at an higher price and if his prediction becomes true then you are going to lose money by waiting.

Maybe you have a little reason in your article but no one can predict how the market will continue in the next few months, but a bearish market is understandable, since bitcoin rised a lot during last times. Maybe it can go down to 5000 dollars at max, but less than it is not possible, because there are too many people trusting and investing in bitcoin everytime more and more, and this makes the price stable.

I doubt that price is even possible anymore, people are waiting for the hard fork to happen and that is going to drive the price upward and if that happens prepare yourself since the price of bitcoin will probably reach a price close to 7000 dollars and we still have another fork after bitcoin gold.