Top 5 reasons why I predict a bitcoin bear market in Q4/2017

[TetraFugolini]

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.


Read full article: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@skydweller/top-reasons-why-i-predict-a-bitcoin-bear-market-in-q4-2017

Agree or Disagree?
Tell me in the comments

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[Yuuto]

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.


Read full article: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@skydweller/top-reasons-why-i-predict-a-bitcoin-bear-market-in-q4-2017

Agree or Disagree?
Tell me in the comments

I would disagree. The pump seems far from over right now, and in fact we are nearing teh $4000 mark once again. I'm almost certain that it will be able to breach that $4000 level and potentially go up to reach an all time high before the end of the year.

Though, i have the feeling that bitcoin may be in a bubble right now.

It's just that the bubble will not completely pop this year. We've seen it deflate a little but i would say that it'll go up even more this year before the potential crash next year.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Agree or Disagree?

Yes. 

First, what do you mean by bear market?  A common definition of a bear market in the stock market is when a financial instrument is down at least 20% from its high.  If you use that definition, we're already there.  If not, are we talking about the price being lower at the end of Q4 than at the beginning?  Or are we talking about another move lower, below $3k?  The details of exactly what happens are anyone's guess.  The author of that article gives compelling reasons for why bitcoin could go lower in the short term, but ultimately it's up to the market, and so I think it's important to look at price and volume to see what the market is telling us.

Here's my take: we had a blink-and-its-over crash and bounce off $3k, and we've been stuck in a (rather large) trading range since then.  I feel like the market is looking for a reason to go higher, but it's having trouble finding one right now.  Without something significantly positive, we're going to have trouble breaking up into the mid $4000s.  Many times, jarring market moves will have some sort of follow-through (e.g., crash-bounce-crash).  Additionally, a bounce on weak volume, as pointed out in the article, shows little interest in reversing the trend (and making it positive again), which does point to a fragile market that could easily crash again on more bad news.  Market participants need a reason to buy.  Without one, I think that the odds currently favor another leg down.

[vit05]

part due to rumors around China

Are you crazy? The crash was because of China. Sept 14 was when BTCC confirm that they would stop operating in China https://twitter.com/YourBTCC/status/908285586368167936

[player514]

part due to rumors around China

Are you crazy? The crash was because of China.

I'd say that OP is not crazy for using the mild terms mainly because Bitcoin did bounce back. The crash, I'd say was not exactly because of China but moreso because of the fearful investors who didn't want to lose their money. They backed out following the news. Because of this, it's possible that OP meant that China was a big factor; but not necessarily the whole of the story.

[error08]

I don't think so, the bear market will last for a while in Q4 of 2017, it will end if FUD is stopped, mainly about China regulations, and Jamie Dimon words mean nothing without ban news from China. OKCoin and Huobi  will halt all trading services for local customers by the end of October and uncertain hard fork planned on November which mean; bitcoin price will fall down in the mid-end of October, or maybe not at all.
We have entered the end of September, bitcoin price at $3939, slowly increases, headed to $4000. Maybe could reach $4500 in October before another dip happen, uncertain price in November, but will recover by the end of this year.

[pitham1]

We already may be in a bear market, but 2017 has been an outstanding year for Bitcoin. Nobody could have predicted how far we would come. To rise from $1000 to $5000 would have seemed unbelievable to some.

[thecodebear]

eh

september was a bear market. I expect october to be fairly neutral, probably stay in the $4000s, maybe pass $5000.

The one legit reason the article had was segwit2x. I do expect another bear market in november, but once the hard fork is over with I expect the rise to continue in December. Then again, maybe after the last fork people realize that it is smarter to hold onto bitcoin heading into a fork because you get free money, rather than selling and losing out on the free forked coins.

[Bellator]

I don't think so, the bear market will last for a while in Q4 of 2017, it will end if FUD is stopped, mainly about China regulations, and Jamie Dimon words mean nothing without ban news from China. OKCoin and Huobi  will halt all trading services for local customers by the end of October and uncertain hard fork planned on November which mean; bitcoin price will fall down in the mid-end of October, or maybe not at all.
We have entered the end of September, bitcoin price at $3939, slowly increases, headed to $4000. Maybe could reach $4500 in October before another dip happen, uncertain price in November, but will recover by the end of this year.

We should not discuss furthermore about that scenario here, but I guess the recovery is just starting now because if you are going to look at the current trend; the price is rising smoothly. That's why more bitcoin analyst and investors started to put back their assets again. By the end of this might bring the price into topmost price as been speculated previously.

[mozillaspez]

We already may be in a bear market, but 2017 has been an outstanding year for Bitcoin. Nobody could have predicted how far we would come. To rise from $1000 to $5000 would have seemed unbelievable to some.

If i yes then you might become a happy because it is happened you should need to believe that it will cross around 10,000USD soon so believe in that too because it will cross a phone number. So keep predicting.

[richardsNY]

To rise from $1000 to $5000 would have seemed unbelievable to some.

Some? I am quite sure that 99% of the people wouldn't believe you if you would say that the market would reach $5000 before the end of 2017. I personally only consider the planned hard fork in November to be a temporary obstacle, and that's really it. I don't feel comfortable selling any of my coins anymore due to the fact that the profits we're making right now, are peanuts compared to the profits we'll be making in the next years -- we just need to have some patience.

[RejectedBanana]

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.

Bitcoin has doubled nearly 11 times since Nov 2012, on average every 6 months. That equates to a whopping 160,000% rise.

Do you really consider a 25% drop a "bear market"?

Wake me up when it falls 75%. Even then, Bitcoin would still have doubled 8 or 9 times since 2012. And probably still recover.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2203360.0

[DuaLipa]

To rise from $1000 to $5000 would have seemed unbelievable to some.

Some? I am quite sure that 99% of the people wouldn't believe you if you would say that the market would reach $5000 before the end of 2017. I personally only consider the planned hard fork in November to be a temporary obstacle, and that's really it. I don't feel comfortable selling any of my coins anymore due to the fact that the profits we're making right now, are peanuts compared to the profits we'll be making in the next years -- we just need to have some patience.

No matter what others say, people should construct their own ideas about bitcoin price. We're sharing too many graphs and some of them could cause disinformation in the community.

I don't expect any bear market from bitcoin in 2017.

[exstasie]

part due to rumors around China

Are you crazy? The crash was because of China. Sept 14 was when BTCC confirm that they would stop operating in China https://twitter.com/YourBTCC/status/908285586368167936

No, the market had already fallen $1200 by then. That was just an excuse for a final capitulation and stop run below $3000. There was uncertainty for weeks in the market already. If anything, disaster news like that always means buy the next dip. Sell the rumor, buy the dip.

Do you really consider a 25% drop a "bear market"?

The correction was 40%, not 25%. And you are correct that this doesn't necessarily indicate a bear market (in crypto), but rather just volatility in a bull market. But remember, everyone is a genius in a bull market. You won't feel like a genius if this is the last chance to sell in the $4000s. As a survivor of 2013, I would just advise people to exercise caution. Exuberance will get you killed in this market.

[LeGaulois]

People like to compare the price with the week/month before. But if you look at the price since 2013 this is another story. No need to go up to 2013, we can consider just 9 months ago while the price was at 1000$. In 9 months the value increased by 400%, so don't worry we can deal with a -25%
In January, a lot of folks were saying Bitcoin is SOOOO expensive

[angaper]

None of your arguments seem sufficiently relevant to predict a bearish market at the end of the year. Bad rumours, uncertainty and pessimistic technical analyses have been permanently present over the years in the development of bitcoin, and none of this has significantly damaged the great progress of this currency.

On the contrary, the simple fact that bitcoin is staying at a fairly stable price level in spite of the furious attacks from its enemies, makes me suppose with enough confidence that in a few days it will be resuming its upward trend with more strength than ever.

[alyssa85]

Volume has started to pick up though. There is sufficient demand for bitcoin from those who think "this is our last chance of buying".

In particular, this year has seen big legit investors expressing an interest in bitcoin, people who would normally be buying Apple shares, but now think they need a bit of bitcoin in their portfolio.

That said, the drama that will come in Nov with the next hard fork might derail things.

[tiptopgemdotcom]

Volume has started to pick up though. There is sufficient demand for bitcoin from those who think "this is our last chance of buying".

In particular, this year has seen big legit investors expressing an interest in bitcoin, people who would normally be buying Apple shares, but now think they need a bit of bitcoin in their portfolio.

That said, the drama that will come in Nov with the next hard fork might derail things.

I am not agree with your opinion.Next hard fork has nothing to affect under current market conditions.Investors already bought rumors and they are ready to sell facts after hard fork.

[kwukduck]

Volume has started to pick up though. There is sufficient demand for bitcoin from those who think "this is our last chance of buying".

In particular, this year has seen big legit investors expressing an interest in bitcoin, people who would normally be buying Apple shares, but now think they need a bit of bitcoin in their portfolio.

That said, the drama that will come in Nov with the next hard fork might derail things.

I am not agree with your opinion.Next hard fork has nothing to affect under current market conditions.Investors already bought rumors and they are ready to sell facts after hard fork.

Geez you really don't understand the severity of this upcoming hard fork and the destruction it will cause to both bitcoin as a tech and its economy.

[ragnar0k]

Plenty of corpses on Tradingview calling a bear market...
You only forgot to add the bubble chart, so being the nice person I am, I did that for you