Bitcoin Forum

[Mod: MtGox is re-opening and there is an influx of trolls in the forum trying to play with the fear. This post might or might not be from a troll]

I expect them to drop as panic-stricken Gox withdraws reach Tradehill accounts and try to convert to USD.

Myself, I cannot ethically take my cash out of Gox, b/c I have a negative BTC balance.

So, time to buy at Trade Hill  (http://www.tradehill.com/?r=TH-R16164) is what I'm hearing

(SIGN UP NOW WITH REFERRAL CODE AND GET 10% FOR LIFE OMG! (http://www.tradehill.com/?r=TH-R16164))

What do you mean "ethically"?

I bet you "physically" can't withdraw a negative balance, in addition to ethics issues.

Hey, stop with the Tradehill spamming!

If you're going to do it, I'm going to do it, then everyone will be doing it.

There is currently more money at TH than BTC and has been for the last few days.  Most people are hedging their bets by having funds in both places already.

Don't look now, but there's blood (and sharks) in the water at Tradehill right now.

When I woke up this morning, it was holding quite steady at 17.20.

When Mt. Gox opened, it fell to around 16.90, then 16.70.

Just now -- when the first BTC from Mt. Gox are hitting peoples' wallets -- it fell to 16.10.

It begins.

Given all the other holes in the site, I'm not sure whether they'd stop a $ withdraw or not.  I hope you're right!

I think we're going to see prices drop into the $7-$9 range.

Or maybe not.

You want to buy lower too, eh.

I think it's going to drop to $1 !

So I can buy a ton! C'mon panic!

Oh good, an economist. Let us know when your hindsight revision is out.

7-9 is the range where I would recommend a buy.  Above that, we are still in bubble mode.

Bitcoin lovers can only prop up the price for so long.  The only thing sustaining this current price is the abundance of coins in the hands of early adopters hoping to prop up the market so they can cash out.

Please show us your method to determine the price. If you have find a way you might get a Nobel.


Then show us your method to read the mind of people over the internet. You might get several Nobels.

really? you see a bubble but think 7$ are justified?
my limit is maybe 0.20$, or some fundamenal change in bitcoin adoption.

In essence I agree with you, but $7 opens the door for some decent short term profits.

HA!  I've been marked as a potential troll.  The post is (1) true, (2) timely.  I'm not sure why it should be flagged.

Full disclosure?  Yes, I did sell some BTC at $17 last night and am hoping to pick up more BTC if it drops.  But as I've said I believe in the currency itself and am in for the long haul.

Edit: I want to add that I have never spammed my TH Referral number on here.

You said bitcoin is going to like 7$, now you say that buying them at 7$ is good for profit. Do you realize the 2 things are different?

You should not take it personal. Its imposible for the moderators to know who is for real and who is a troll. During previous events similar to the one that is going on now, there was a heavy influx of trolls. We are just trying to keep the forum somehow safe. Nothing else.

Just bought at tradehill , ready for the waves  ;D.

I wish mods would focus on the Tradehill spammers over the trolls that will indefinitely be present.

Do you wear a helmet out in public? :P

I'm just wondering what type of person buys, now, at $16... when there's a few thousand in BTC moving around and the USD is probably not likely to follow it nearly as quick. Not saying that BTC is going to tank, but now is a pretty terrible time to be buying.

I think the market is going to surprise people. I am not in it to get out right away, I am in this for the longrun. I don't believe that Bitoins will drop all because mtgox is back  online if anything the speculation is going to fuel these prices. I just can't see it going any lower than $15 when these coins are trading at 15+ in every single exhanger, and @25 at ebay. Even if I buy at 16 I still make killer profit on Ebay.

They're not allowing this, thats why it's a helluva deal to buy bitcoins at ANY price on ebay because you can simply reverse the transaction after upto 6months, and the idiot seller will be left with a closed paypal/ebay account (if it was already empty they'll charge his RL bank account) and his btc's gone.

Ebays letting us get away with it for now. We have an internal list of honest buyers, and dishonest scammers. It's a group list that basically keeps everyone out of trouble, and stuff operating smoothly. Trust me, Ebay may publicly have a problem with this, but inside their loving it.  We are literally printing them money ! Alot of people are basically taking a penny, and attaching a BTC bonus on to the penny. This makes it really, really , hard for ebay to justify closing your auction down. You're allowed to trade currency on Ebay, and how high your auction gets has nothing to do with the value of the currency that you are selling.

http://cgi.ebay.com/One-cent-two-2-Bitcoin-Bonus-2-BTC-/200623743620?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_2&hash=item2eb61b6284

No such thing as 6 month charge-backs. The most my money is held for is 2 weeks. We have an internal list which makes these transactions go much smoother. You have much higher chance of getting scammed in one of these exchangers than you would on Ebay. There are many ways to protect yourself, but I don't feel like it's necessary to divulge that information, especially when you are so hostile to the idea.

Starting to see some signs of a cash out on TH...

You're wrong. Do some more research, chargebacks can happen upto 6 months after a transaction is made and if you have a CC or a bankaccount attached to it, paypal will get your money from there.

You're right about one thing, you are much better protected using ebay/paypal but only IF you are the buyer, if you are the seller you have to prey and hope the buyer isn't a thief.

I'm not hostile to the idea of buying using paypal/ebay, but selling through there is plain stupid.

I think that's why I am going to start selling it pegged to a real coin, cause then you have something tangible to go by. So there is actually a shipment that takes place, and the customer is held accountable for that shipment/confirmation. It's alot less riskier this way, and you can peg it to almost anything you can think of, even an old sock, just add BTC BONUS to the end of it and the scavengers will find it !

I thought economists predicted things, not play-by-play commentary. So, 'professor', anything regarding the future? Don't worry, we won't be too rough on you, after all - economist is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong and still be employed. :)

I have consistently stated we should see a price of $7-$9 not long after Mt. Gox opens.

Sorry, I don't have 'not long' marked on my clock. Could you be more specific?

Why? Difficulty has gone up, there is ALOT more competition in the exchange market, and there are projects popping up everywhere. What is an indicator to you that we are headed for single digits ?

Lack of trust in the currency.  As of late, it increasingly appears that you have no recourse in the face of criminal activity.

Who's lacking trust in the actual currency? If anything people are lacking trusts against MTGOX. Not bitcoin lol..

Welcome to the Wild West. Standard rules don't apply.

This is the misconception techie types have.  Yes, Mt Gox was the one hacked, however that hacking showed people that they have no recourse when there money is stolen.  A Bitcoin Deposit Insurance Corp. type entity is vital if this currency is to succeed long term.

It's extremely unlikely this event is over.

No, it's a misconception that NON-techie and the ill informed have.

For there to be a BDIC there would have to be a bitcoin bank, and a bitcoin bank it a pretty lame idea until the bank can have recourse against someone who defaults on a loan.

Nope, you sure don't. One mistake and your're fucked. But your only hope is that for the long term the amount you lose to fraudulent activity is far far smaller than the money you actually make. Law of averages and statistics will tear you a new one from time to time.

Far wilder than the wild west. At least in the wild west if someone fucked with you, you at least had a face to shoot at.

Go git them bitcoins boys! Heeeyaaaaw!

Tug of war. The disgruntled bitcoiners will dump them like hot potatoes, while the true believers will see this as an opportunity to "buy in cheaply" and as such price will swing wildly until everyone calms down and some sort of equilibrium is reached. If new blood comes in then price will start to crawl back up. If more bad news comes around the weak of heart will be scrambling to dump their coins. Will someone buy them? Perhaps. I hope the true believers don't run out of money. Either way if shit hits the fan someone is going to be left holding the bag. Are the days of 10,000 BTC pizzas coming back? I would doubt it. What exactly will happen? Nobody knows.

Agreed. If that was to happen it would mean that BTC is recognized legally as a currency. At the very least if they were recognized as a money substitute it would be better than being the equivalent of monopoly money (under the law).

Id like to hear from some lawyer type as to what legal standing BTC currently has. Is it a commodity? etc...

Not to mention there are a wall of bids over at Tradehill.

1,110 BTC @ 14.51
1,150 BTC @ 14.50
1,230 BTC @ 14.45
1,300 BTC @ 14.40

It goes on... that's 4,790 BTC in just a 0.11-cent range. Notional value at a last of 16.00 = $76,640 And it just keeps getting bigger from there...

Those are cumulative totals, not individual. The spread between 14.51 and 14.4 is 190. If someone sell 1300 BTC the price will be 14.4.

Hmm... I'll have to take a closer look, didn't think they grouped them in that way - makes it a bit misleading for the reasons you specified!

The price will go to infinity?   :D

Looks like we've got a player on TradeHill trying to scare the price down (selling off a bunch then immediately putting up a lower relatively large ask).  I guess somebody from MtGox has found a new home.  Here we go.

Indeed a wall of 1300 BTC is not very impressive.  I remember watching a 'wall' of buy orders 10k BTC high for coins at $20 crumbling before my eyes just the other week. I learned a valuable lesson that day.

If you guys thought MtGox was an easy market to manipulate...

That's only if enough people or 1 person with enough resources is moving the same direction at the same time. Watching the last trades there are people buying and selling at the same price all the time. The volume could, but very rarely will it ever.

I usually consider that under 1500BTC, it is still the current value of bitcoins. Breaking a 1000BTC wall in both direction was usually done in a matter of minutes on mtgox.

That.  My guess is somebody is setting up to take a bunch of bitcoins away from some of the skittish folks trying their hand at trading at TradeHill.  This should be fun to watch.

The post was in reply to someone that didn't understand that market depth charts are cumulative the farther they go out. Feel free to nitpick an example though.

if this note was in fact added by a moderator, it is demonstrative of a very poor moderation practice that ought to be reconsidered.

either the moderators want to stop market manipulation or they don't. to try to do it on one side only, against those 'trying to play with the fear', is itself a more significant kind of market manipulation than the 'trolls' they aim to stop.

many of us, for months, have legitimately warned speculators to be careful and have given sound reasons for that. we pointed out the dangerous concentration at mt. gox and other potentially destabilising forces in the present bitcoin marketplace. we were often labeled 'trolls', told that we must simply be jealous, quite incorrectly informed that we possess no bitcoins in the currently prominent block chain, etc.

i've seen no end of claims on this forum that members are recently engaging in promoting 'fear, uncertainty, and doubt'. but the feel of the forum overall, for more than a year and including the last week, is far more the opposite: 'greed, certainty, and dogma'. those features are more problematic for the broader adoption of the bitcoin technology, and even the currently prominent but seriously problematic block chain, than a few people truly or falsely trying to discourage short-term buying.

Good point.  Hysteria goes both ways and I guess some fanboys are actually "trolling" the shorts. 

The mods have already addressed the warning in my case (above) and I can see their point: an influx of manipulating trolls can be really annoying.

Have you ever watched the realtime market depth on a NASDAQ stock in a good L2 quote system?  This stuff goes on constantly there.  Computers keep big blocks of bids just below the real bid or just above the real ask...

Either it's to HIGH and needs to crash ASAP, or it's to slow and boring lol... Bitcoin is perfect. The assessments here are such a joke to the entire finance community as a whole. You guys are wrong so often, I loose count.

Really "mod"? The OP is pretty normal speculation.  ::)

I respect that. You're right, most of the crazy people saying it was going to zero haven't uttered a peep.

Good trading to you.