Bitcoin Forum

It's going to drop, but how low?

Let's take a look at the long term spec...

There are three simple areas that stand out (The elephant in the room). Just take a look at the difficulty level, and how it traces through history.

If you remember back in 2011 the last time this happened, there's a similar pattern occurring...

1. The difficulty spikes, and shortly following is a nice spike that went up to ~$30.
2. Diff level's out... BTC value drops to ~$2.
3. Because BTC is on a whole new scale, and maturity level, it's just occurring again but on a bigger scale.

It's not going to drop to $2, but it's going to drop to something lower than $30.


For example, if the price where to drop from $30 to $2, I think that's big drop. Now if that same type of drop from $260 .... You get the picture.

https://i.imgur.com/z7hj6CZ.png

Its bubble deflation. Speculators are getting flushed out.

Get ready for $30 :D

Btw, I expect the same thing to happen soon in the stock, bond and most other financial markets - when people realize how crazy the politicians and central bankers are, and that practically every financial market is in a bubble.

Watch from the current BTC collapse and learn. It's called "bubble deflation". This type of collapse, currently affecting bitcoin, is coming to all other financial markets soon

Except the dollar itself is in a bull trap so that too may collapse. Thus commodity prices in terms of dollars will fall upwards, so to speak?

I think $30 is high, but not a bad buy for a long term investment. The great thing about bitcoin is it's ability to deflate, that way you do not have the issues with hyper-inflation. It's just running the typical cycle.



IF that happens, it'll take a long time for that to play out.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but Helicopter Ben's been trying to crash the dollar as quickly as possible. Seems people's faith in the green filth is tough to crush, however...

Kind of shocking.

Should be $30 by the end of next week. And slowly drop from there and stabilize into the teens.

Worst case seems to be the high area of 2011, so 30's roughly.

We're "off plan" for the retrace playing out like 2011 though, we didn't get the massive rebound that they did, just the grind lower. I think we're in the "Second Grind Lower" part of this: http://pastebin.com/v6npykei

There is the possibility since we're not replaying the prior action identically that we don't slump below 64 - but of course, there's no guarantee.

That's not going to happen that quickly... The trade organizations will halt trading to "cool down", it's going to take longer than that.





It's not going to be exactly the same... You have to look at the overall patterns.. There are a lot of other factors that come into play that where not around in 2011 - (besides more people, different people, bigger scale)

One big difference, was in 2011, the trade organizations didn't have a "market cooldown" like there was in 2013.

Please elaborate market cool down. Please elaborate the reasons this is legal. Thank you.

A little off-topic, but I'll entertain it.

A market cool down is when trading is halted for a period of time.
 
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt.Gox (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt.Gox)


There are no laws saying that this is illegal... It's up to the trading organization to implement, so if you don't like it, go somewhere else.

You're welcome.

i will save you all the pain of waiting for your btc to be worthless - buying @ $2 today! get it while my offer is still available

Asic miners will have to unplug their rigs at around $1.21 unless they have free electricity.

Calculations using 10w/1Gh/s@ $0.12/kwh

If you're trying to compare the first and second big crashes, why on earth are you using linear charts?

speculators/traders made a profit. holders catching all the low blows.

please enough predictions. we all know btc is falling and nobody knows how low.

tokeweed, this is the speculation subforum. 

25 bucks. Sell now :-)

always put a caveat when making bullshit predictions. some people talk as if they know what their talking about.

Well if sheeple like you think that then it's probably not going to happen LOL

This is stupid nobody's going to turn off their rigs unless they are completely broke. I doubt there are many people who are insolvent who own ASIC rigs.

Bitcoins will rebound in time no matter how low the price goes so mining and holding makes sense.

as if you're not a sheep.  we all are, dont forget that. that's why we are here trying to play the btc market, posting in this forum typing as if we all know shit. if we werent sheep, we'd have billions and all the insider info to make more billions.

so stfu and quit acting you're higher than everyone else nerd.

Most people think that it won't happen. I cant find a single person I know who thinks that we are looking at a big deflation in the financial markets soon. Most people seem to think there is some kind of "recovery" going on.

It'll go way over $266 at some point, there's not doubt about that. I think we might land into the teens, and maybe dip into the single digits. As the graphs that I posed, I believe that as of right now, mining (and large hacks) has an influence on the price.

No doubt?  ::)

Riiiight. None at all.

I'm as bearish as the come but I for the life of me, can not buy into this 30-20, teens, single digits theories.  Maybe it's ignorance but I just don't see how we're going to fall that low.  I fully expected we would retest our lows of 50ish but below that, I'm just not seeing. 

Prepared for either but I just think even breaking into the 40's is a real long shot.  And for anyone that knows my rhetoric, that's saying alot.  Either case, thanks for the TA.

The interesting thing for me is the last bitcoin bubble was partly blamed on Cyprus and their catastrophic banking situation.  Whether it was actual Cypriots buying bitcoin to get money out of the country, or speculators buying in anticipation of that event (sell the sizzle, not the sausage, buy the rumour, sell the news, etc), is unknown at this point.  If it was Cypriots buying to save their money they really went out of the frying pan and into the fire.  Some would be looking at losses of well over 50% right now.

The important thing is bitcoin may have shown itself to the world as not being a safe haven in troubled times.  Sure, it's useful for getting money out and bypassing an autocratic government, but for actually keeping money there it's about as stable as any third world currency.

I would think that, in order for this to truly be over, even someone such as you needs to be shocked. I would expect a bounce from $50, only to plummet right through it as the last of the big holders who are willing to sell takes what they perceive to be their last opportunity to be wealthy.

IMHO.

My price target is $30.

I don't think we're going straight there, but give it 1-2 months.

Certainly a possibility.  I will be shocked if we breakthrough 50 and if I'm holding coins, which I probably will be, I wont be happy about it as I would certainly take a loss before I ride this thing to $10.  But I hate taking losses of any size.   ;D  Put simply, breaking though 50 while holding majority BTC, would send me into "panic" mode for sure.

Short term? I think it is likely to go as low as $20 - $30

Long term? $0 or $100000

I hear a lot of $30's and I think that's a fair price to start buying in at... We can speculate all day $0.10 $1, $5, $30, $50, $70, whatever... What I'm watching for is some kind of stagnation that will clue me in that things are turning over.. This doesn't happen in a day, week or even a month...

I'm waiting for the price to hold under a certain amount for 1 - 2 months... For example if we sit here and bounce around under $80 - $60 for 60 day's, that's the clue that it's ready to gather funds to swallow BTC..

I'm big believer that history eventually repeats itself. So, let's go back and look at this graph below, we can see that for about 3 months the volume is there, and it bounced on/under $4.

https://i.imgur.com/a3SpiBL.png

I'm guessing everyone you know get's their news from the MSM. There is plenty of info out there that points to a Bond bubble popping soon. But you won't hear any of it on the MSM. After it happens, all you will hear on the MSM is: "No one could have predicted the bonds crashing".

http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2013/3-bubbles.png

Image from this article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/opportunity-squandered-we-blew-it

Personally, on this "recovery" you mentioned....  I can't find any actual evidence it exists, unless because the talking heads on TV say it is true, it must be true, right?

We've already hit bottom. We are not going below $60 without some serious negative news. Bye bye bears.