How low is it going to go? $25, $15, $5, $2?

[Einewton]

It's going to drop, but how low?

Let's take a look at the long term spec...

There are three simple areas that stand out (The elephant in the room). Just take a look at the difficulty level, and how it traces through history.

If you remember back in 2011 the last time this happened, there's a similar pattern occurring...

1. The difficulty spikes, and shortly following is a nice spike that went up to ~$30.
2. Diff level's out... BTC value drops to ~$2.
3. Because BTC is on a whole new scale, and maturity level, it's just occurring again but on a bigger scale.

It's not going to drop to $2, but it's going to drop to something lower than $30.


For example, if the price where to drop from $30 to $2, I think that's big drop. Now if that same type of drop from $260 .... You get the picture.

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[xavier]

Its bubble deflation. Speculators are getting flushed out.

Get ready for $30

Btw, I expect the same thing to happen soon in the stock, bond and most other financial markets - when people realize how crazy the politicians and central bankers are, and that practically every financial market is in a bubble.

Watch from the current BTC collapse and learn. It's called "bubble deflation". This type of collapse, currently affecting bitcoin, is coming to all other financial markets soon

[nobbynobbynoob]

Except the dollar itself is in a bull trap so that too may collapse. Thus commodity prices in terms of dollars will fall upwards, so to speak?

[Einewton]

Its bubble deflation. Speculators are getting flushed out.

Get ready for $30

I think $30 is high, but not a bad buy for a long term investment. The great thing about bitcoin is it's ability to deflate, that way you do not have the issues with hyper-inflation. It's just running the typical cycle.

Except the dollar itself is in a bull trap so that too may collapse. Thus commodity prices in terms of dollars will fall upwards, so to speak?

IF that happens, it'll take a long time for that to play out.

[nobbynobbynoob]

Except the dollar itself is in a bull trap so that too may collapse. Thus commodity prices in terms of dollars will fall upwards, so to speak?

IF that happens, it'll take a long time for that to play out.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but Helicopter Ben's been trying to crash the dollar as quickly as possible. Seems people's faith in the green filth is tough to crush, however...

[BitCoiner2012]

Except the dollar itself is in a bull trap so that too may collapse. Thus commodity prices in terms of dollars will fall upwards, so to speak?

IF that happens, it'll take a long time for that to play out.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but Helicopter Ben's been trying to crash the dollar as quickly as possible. Seems people's faith in the green filth is tough to crush, however...

Kind of shocking.

[computerparts]

Should be $30 by the end of next week. And slowly drop from there and stabilize into the teens.

[TraderTimm]

Worst case seems to be the high area of 2011, so 30's roughly.

We're "off plan" for the retrace playing out like 2011 though, we didn't get the massive rebound that they did, just the grind lower. I think we're in the "Second Grind Lower" part of this: http://pastebin.com/v6npykei

There is the possibility since we're not replaying the prior action identically that we don't slump below 64 - but of course, there's no guarantee.

[Einewton]

Should be $30 by the end of next week. And slowly drop from there and stabilize into the teens.

That's not going to happen that quickly... The trade organizations will halt trading to "cool down", it's going to take longer than that.

Worst case seems to be the high area of 2011, so 30's roughly.

We're "off plan" for the retrace playing out like 2011 though, we didn't get the massive rebound that they did, just the grind lower. I think we're in the "Second Grind Lower" part of this: http://pastebin.com/v6npykei

There is the possibility since we're not replaying the prior action identically that we don't slump below 64 - but of course, there's no guarantee.

It's not going to be exactly the same... You have to look at the overall patterns.. There are a lot of other factors that come into play that where not around in 2011 - (besides more people, different people, bigger scale)

One big difference, was in 2011, the trade organizations didn't have a "market cooldown" like there was in 2013.

[peonminer]

Please elaborate market cool down. Please elaborate the reasons this is legal. Thank you.

[Einewton]

Please elaborate market cool down.

A little off-topic, but I'll entertain it.

A market cool down is when trading is halted for a period of time.
 

Suspension of trading
Mt.Gox suspended trading on 11 April 2013 until 12 April 2013 2am UTC for a "market cooldown". The value of a single bitcoin fell to a low of $55.59 after the resumption of trading before stabilizing above $100.
Mt.Gox suspended order placing on 13 April 2013 until 13 April 2013 21:00:00 UTC to let engine "cooldown".

- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt.Gox

Please elaborate the reasons this is legal.

There are no laws saying that this is illegal... It's up to the trading organization to implement, so if you don't like it, go somewhere else.

Thank you.

You're welcome.

[superduh]

i will save you all the pain of waiting for your btc to be worthless - buying @ $2 today! get it while my offer is still available

[hmmmstrange]

Asic miners will have to unplug their rigs at around $1.21 unless they have free electricity.

Calculations using 10w/1Gh/s@ $0.12/kwh

[Qoheleth]

If you're trying to compare the first and second big crashes, why on earth are you using linear charts?

[tokeweed]

Its bubble deflation. Speculators are getting flushed out.

Get ready for $30

Btw, I expect the same thing to happen soon in the stock, bond and most other financial markets - when people realize how crazy the politicians and central bankers are, and that practically every financial market is in a bubble.

Watch from the current BTC collapse and learn. It's called "bubble deflation". This type of collapse, currently affecting bitcoin, is coming to all other financial markets soon

speculators/traders made a profit. holders catching all the low blows.

[tokeweed]

It's going to drop, but how low?

Let's take a look at the long term spec...

There are three simple areas that stand out (The elephant in the room). Just take a look at the difficulty level, and how it traces through history.

If you remember back in 2011 the last time this happened, there's a similar pattern occurring...

1. The difficulty spikes, and shortly following is a nice spike that went up to ~$30.
2. Diff level's out... BTC value drops to ~$2.
3. Because BTC is on a whole new scale, and maturity level, it's just occurring again but on a bigger scale.

It's not going to drop to $2, but it's going to drop to something lower than $30.


For example, if the price where to drop from $30 to $2, I think that's big drop. Now if that same type of drop from $260 .... You get the picture.

please enough predictions. we all know btc is falling and nobody knows how low.

[VolanicEruptor]

tokeweed, this is the speculation subforum. 

[nexus99]

25 bucks. Sell now :-)

[tokeweed]

tokeweed, this is the speculation subforum. 

always put a caveat when making bullshit predictions. some people talk as if they know what their talking about.

[wopwop]

Btw, I expect the same thing to happen soon in the stock, bond and most other financial markets - when people realize how crazy the politicians and central bankers are, and that practically every financial market is in a bubble.

Well if sheeple like you think that then it's probably not going to happen LOL