Bitcoin Forum

I don't fully understand the Futures market.
How could futures impact bitcoin and its price?

Here's the deal with these futures. You don't actually hold any bitcoin on your own, but you do own some sort of financial instrument given by the CBOE, and it states that they hold bitcoin on the investor's behalf not precisely but somewhat like that. This derivatives is only to be paid in cash and it'll affect the price is institutional buyers would love to influence the price on their own, and this could be a big deal later on.

Thanks for your response.
So, I'm guessing the CBOE would have been loading up with Bitcoin prior to 10th Dec. The demand driving prices up?

It would not affect bitcoin price directly.It would just remain as oil futures,gold futures do remain without having any direct impact on such commodities.It would just boost bitcoin price to a small extent.Both bitcoin and bitcoin futures would travel parallel and bitcoin futures would be valued based on the current price of bitcoin in gemini exchange.Bitcoin futures increase in price would serve as a cause for increase in bitcoin price.

So CBOE and future market companies, do not hold bitcoins on their own?

Not as part of their business

So in other words you're asking someone to buy coins for you and that person handles all the risk and technicalities like managing wallets, trading on exchanges, verifying accounts, security of holdings and so on. You get an IOU from them and if they lose the coins, get hacked, whatever, they still have an insurance and owe you money as a registered business. Am I correct? This means futures are a way for technical newbies or people who are afraid to take the responsibility for their own coins to still be able to invest.

future is a financial institution that offers margin trades to its users, it has a lot of users so we can see a huge trades of bitcoins here it may cause more volatility in the bitcoin price as of now and it may also make hasten the increase of its price.. but with the high risk of margin some may lose its bitcoins while some might win very big in this matter.

Wrong. To influence the price of BTC, the institutional traders, not just buyers because they also sell, would have to buy real BTC. This is counterproductive if they also trade BTC futures. The futures market is maybe only good as a hedge to lessen risk for institutional investors who already hold BTC.

I think this is something similar to the stock market, where there are analysts and technical people who serve as an advisory team helping to buy and sell taking certain amount as charge or commission for the work done.

As far as i know in futures cash settled so basically this market is people betting each other in USD on what will happen to the price of Bitcoin. No Bitcoin is being moved or delivered here. For each futures trade there is a counterparty betting USD, not BTC. They measure the price of BTC exchanges and go off that for the market.

For America's bitcoin futures business this month, I think it will enlarge the volatility of bitcoin, and it will probably go up and down more vigorously. I think this is unfavorable for the development of the encrypted currency. We should let the community grow slowly, and now we don't need the financial instruments.

Futures trading is just betting on the price of something at some point in the future.
In that sense it is no different to gambling. I expect there will be more volatility when these markets come online. All i can say is "pity the fool that bets against a deflationary currency using an inflationary one". The people going into this market expecting it play by the same rules as the existing financial markets are going to be the ones who get burnt the most.

There would be a dual market, futures and Bitcoin market, might be interdependent or independent. Cash-settled Bitcoin futures would allow Bitcoin skeptics/institutional investors to bet against Bitcoin without even buying it or there is a possibility that these investors will want to suppress the price so they can buy Bitcoin at a discount, either way this would lead to a new price discovery mechanism.

Just read an article on, will the futures market do to Bitcoin what it did to gold?


https://medium.com/swlh/will-the-futures-market-do-to-bitcoin-what-it-did-to-gold-b7d35704641

Well lets give you a short information.
Through futures the market the CME will sell 5 bitcoins to individuals or authorities and Everything will be dealt in cash now... If they are gonna sell bitcoins then they should buy bitcoins ... Right ? Fair enough.. and when they will buy bitcoins then ... The cost per bitcoins will increase due to high demand and the limited supply... Thus we can see an incredible increase in the price of bitcoins and the futures will start trading from 18 December thus you can expect the peak at 20 - 21 because those who have already set their eyes on this will for sure buy before that... Well now...
The bad news is..that CME could easily regulate the price of bitcoins and if one day they decided to ditch the bitcoins market then ! There is nothing that we would be able to do...and the price will fall down and investors will run away..

It's just way to loos your money if BTC will fall down

What do you mean by real BTC? there is no fake BITCOIN, lol, only real ones exist. The market of the cryptocurrencies and the market that we have in the real world is going to adopt bitcoin for sure in the near future, once they have realized what bitcoin really could do and what it could help them to make this society develop into something better, bitcoin is the future.

That what makes bitcoin very unpredictable, considering its volatile price and decentralized nature makes it very hard to determine the final price at the future. Considering that bitcoin is the hot-topic at the world currently due to skyrocketing of its price, no one really knows what will the future may bring. Big investing companies and investors are stating that bitcoin may be the biggest bubble in the history of the internet as it may soon pop, but others sees it as an opportunity to invest whether for short or long-term due to its high-risk, high-reward system.
I agree that it is very difficult nowadays to understand the future price of bitcoin but you must focus on investing first as tomorrow might be the unpredictable. Like what others say, expect the unexpected when investing into bitcoin.

I had a very strong theory about the impact of the futures market openning on the Bitcoin's price.

I believe that it has a positive impact on the market as it adds a massive amount of liquidity.
I can't conclude if it is going to affect the price positively or nagatively , but I do believe that it is a totally game changer.

To understand how futures affect bitcoin price, you have to read basic information about futures contract:
- As defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR), Bitcoin future will have 5 BTC as contract unit.
- Unlike Bitcoin exchanges, Bitcoin future will have a defined trading window and circuit filters.
- CME Bitcoin future brings the option to short Bitcoin.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4128569-5-things-aware-cme-bitcoin-futures

In general; bitcoin futures has nothing to do with bitcoin as the contract settled in dollars and there is no any bitcoin involved, contract holders simply bet on bitcoin price.
But, bitcoin futures bring some advantages as many investors may be interested to buy bitcoin to slightly affect the price in order to win their contract or vice versa. On the other hand, bitcoin seems to gain more attention and reliance from big trading group which intrigue other companies to learn about bitcoin.

IMHO not much. The futures is just like gambling for adults. You are betting price of BTC will increase or decrease. If you get it right you make money, if not, you lose money.

In order to know what are the impacts of Futures trading on Bitcoin you have to first know how it actually works. You can learn about it on youtube. Fututres trading means trading on the future price of any asset. So the people will be betting on the future price of BTC.
The impact of Futures can be both positive and negative on Bitcoin depending on the trend that follows on the futures trading. If the people are betting against the price fall then the price might actually fall and the same could happen in opposite direction. Seeing the futures value people could tend to buy/sell BTC according to the price.

Futures impact in bitcoin? If you buy today and just hold it for a year i think your future will become a better future, i know bitcoin will be increase more than a year so its better to hold now.

But actually not only the hodling can give a huge impact on the future of bitcoins since there are somethings that needed to do before bitcoins gain success and it need to circulate so that the bitcoin economy will became more healthier, And holding for long term basis is just for richman since they can generate more funds for theirselves and can just freeze their bitcoin wealth for long time, and low holders cannot do that so I advice that it's better to use the half and let the other half circulate to earn more bitcoins, and that could make the low holders earn more bits to became big holders on future.

What is also important about futures is that the prices are decided in advance. While you sign a contract you agree that on a certain date you will be ready to sell or buy bitcoin at a certain price. That's why some believe bitcoin is in danger of its price being manipulated by the whales, as the price is agreed upon regardless to what will actually happen in the future and what demand will be for bitcoin at that time.

No, you misunderstood the question, I believe. It is about the futures contracts on CME. Yet surely your advice is probably great, for it's a pretty safe and easy way to earn some money.

I'm still sort of new to these things, but why would people buy these futures, instead of simply buying Bitcoins instead? Not pay any middleman. I hate the concept.

Also, isn't that like gambling?

Bitcoin is a very comfortable crypto for it’s users. There are many altcoins in cryptocurrency but bitcoin holds that’s top position since the start till now. World is digitalizing day by day and many other crypto growing up so it is very hard to say about the future of any crypto but bitcoin is so much advanced than other.
We can’t say properly about its future because it changes its value very quickly and no one knows that will increase or lower. If it gives more benefit then people will consent more into it and it will go ahead. All of things depends on its value, benefit and peoples mind.

Future is a great OPPORTUNITY to bitcoin. It is like embracing the bitcoin while time goes by. Technological advancement are continuously taking place and with the help of internet everything is easily to access. The time comes where all of the mall will accept bitcoin as their payment and every transaction is very fast.

Great responses. Thanks.

I will need to investigate further to get my head around it.
But, if this is people basically betting on the price in the future, then they are not really influencing the price, unless of course they are betting and also buying HUGE amounts of bitcoin, creating an artificial scarcity, driving the price up.
OR by dumping a huge amount on the market, possibly driving the price down.

Does that sound like I'm in the right ball park?

The main thing that can impact bitcoins is the demand for it, if the demand reduces then bitcoins might become obsolete,apart from that government policies and regulation can aslo impact bitcoins, if government decides to impose taxes on bitcoins, this could hugely impact the future of bitcoins

I know you know what I already mean. But if you didnt know trading futures contracts are not the same as holding BTC. Thats why I said REAL BTC because some of our fellow forumites doesnt care about the difference between a futures market and a cryptocurrency market like Poloniex.

Yes that's true, but I do not think the government can easily block Bitcoin. That's the same as we try to block various sites on the internet. There will always be loopholes and will always appear new sites. People will always find ways to get what they want. In my opinion, in the future there will be many people who are looking for Bitcoin. That will affect and increase the price of Bitcoin. The more people look for Bitcoin, the more Bitcoins will become scarce. And also, there will be many people who become rich because it already has Bitcoin, including me hahaha.

Currently they don't have almost any impact. I just read a article with possible explanation:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/12/15/bitcoin-futures-are-about-to-get-another-big-boost.html

In short:

"Here's the bad news: volume in the Cboe contract has been very small. On average, roughly $60 million in notional value has traded each day.

In just the last 24 hours, about a half-million bitcoins alone have changed hands. At $17,000 per bitcoin, that is about $8.5 billion.

Get it? $60 million vs. $8.5 billion."

Because most traders/miners/whales are outside US.

But situation can always change, so I'm watching it closely.

If futures get bigger in the future I would expect big swings just like we've seen recently. It's only going to make things even more speculative than they already are right now.

Yes I think if you want to see how your future will be and bitcoins would impact on your future life, then surely you need to hold bitcoins and see after a year. This will give you results of a near future and just relate it to some extra years of holding.

Bitcoins are so incredible that they don’t take much time to change a person’s life if he is willing to consider a turn in his financial health.

I guess the impact will be the BIG CHANGE.
Why.? Change in every business payment. Change in everything involves in money. Change is everywhere. Schools payment, pair, payphone, foods, dress, food chains, sports, markets, hospitals, every payment.
It will be a revolution of CHANGE. The world of crypto is coming soon. just watch and listen. The BIG CHANGE is soon. Btc is coming to change the world. Be ready and alert. Change is the impact.

the impact of bitcoin we can use money more easily when buying something goods without issuing banknotes because only with smartphones we can use the balance bitcoin connected in our smartphone and we can get the goods we want.

Interesting article.

We can easily buy things we want as easy as buying though cash, but the impact is bitcoin will have a high fee for every transaction as bitcoin price increases. With that other persons will just hold it instead of using it for investing, with that bitcoin will truly get high more that we are expecting, and we can't afford anymore to buy it.

I forgot to add that there was also a link in that article to this
https://medium.com/swlh/the-5-minute-guide-to-bitcoin-futures-804a4935b583

Also worth a read.

Bitcoin futures by top companies will help make bitcoin go mainstream and also boost the bitcoin price as well.

I am expecting for more pumps for all of us, bitcoiners, to have a brighter future. Transactions here in tge cryptocurrency world is much better in real life, because here all transactions are fast, and anonymous.

It will happen for bitcoin price continously pump in the coming future. The futures impact bitcoin is the transaction fees that most users are using bitcoin in terms of what you said fast and hassle free.

The opposite is true.
People could benefit from bitcoin going down, which means that it may cause the price to go down because some strong players may want to benefit from that.

I think that the price of bitcoin is maybe going to suffer from a dip as some whales who are interested to have huge profits may short bitcoin and then sell a large load of bitcoins and they will also profit from selling bitcoins at a high price and then profit from the shorts.
They can later rebuy bitcoin for a low price as they will enable panic selling.

Dude , you should understand this simple thing! People are investing in Bitcoin because of its increasing prices and it's increasing because people know that the world is turning digital. So online currencies can prevail over paper currencies. This is me main reason why Bitcoin is in the headlines and the countries are in a dilemma .

The futures market will not affect bitcoin  price too mush as there are not  going to invest in bitcoin but using it like gold futures , will definitely going to give bitcoin a little leverage. One thing that I think this future market is going to help stabilize bitcoin price from this high volatility we are experiencing now.  The fluctuations in price is too high  and though we need this as an investors but it is not good for adoption.

Because bitcoin greatly affects the digital currency, the government just wants to keep fiat money in place and stay in use. We know the world is now growing and technology is growing rapidly. This makes bitcoin will affect the economic system in the future.

Currently it's more the fear of missing out that plays an important role as to why people buy themselves into Bitcoin. Fiat related infrastructure in digital form has been progressing as well, where at this point it offers an ultimate form of convenience, instant payments, insurance over your purchases, instant cash back possibilities, etc. So it's not like people are rushing into crypto just because the world is getting more digital with the day. At this point it's just a speculative investment opportunity for them that they want to benefit from now Bitcoin is going absolutely nuts. Everywhere you go you'll see and hear people talk about Bitcoin having broken this or that level, which motivates other people to invest as well.

This would happen but it takes time. It would be better if you say such will happen in far future. Recently as the prices just got wings and they were touching the skies within a day or two, believe me such charisma will be happening sooner or later. But yes there is one guarantee about bitcoins they will be increasing like anything and nothing can stop them from going to moon.

Actually i dont think so the impact future of bitcoin because as a member in bitcoin is better if you say such will happen in future because bitcoin they will be increasing anything and nothing can stop them going impact.

In my view, that would greatly depend on what kind of futures they are going to introduce or have already introduced. There can be basically two kinds, I mean futures that are either cash settled or physically delivered. Obviously, futures contracts that require the actual underlying asset (Bitcoin) to be delivered will directly affect the market price of the underlying simply because this is equal to trading with real bitcoins. But as far as I know, bitcoin futures are only cash settled as of yet, so they shouldn't affect bitcoin and its price on their own.

Hard to say really and there's a lot of conflicting information: some say they will stabilize the price, while others say they'll not do much as they only deal in cash... so who knows  ???

For me if I am to be ask about impact of bitcoin in future, I can say that if this still a strong organization in the future it will have a big impact which everyone wants to use it daily because as of now bitcoin really gets a high star for people who knows and using it. In terms of financial assistance and support when you badly need it bitcoin will waiting for you. So that would create a big and explosive one in the nearest future

I think that in the future, technology will be more advanced. Therefore, the use of online currency will be a trend and at that time the FIAT system will no longer be relevant. We all need to look at the innovations that the future holds and accept the fact that it could possibly happen.

A lot of sentiment on this issue, maybe a discussion of some social media that says that will crash when this is starting to apply since last Sunday there is a point. When bitcoin encounters a crash condition, the value will fall dip, in panic selling happen, at that time the bankers will start spending their money on buyback bitcoin to recovery price up again. This is a possible momentum.

I think you might have misunderstood my question or I didn't make my question clear enough. My apologies.
I know why people invest in Bitcoin, it's benefits etc.

What I was asking is if the 'futures market' could impact directly on the bitcoin price?

I thought that futures was just a bet on an out come by a certain date, in which case it would have no impact. Its just a bet.

However if futures means that you are betting on an outcome and that you are also promising to buy at that the agreed price on an agreed date, then it could have an outcome because they would now hold bitcoin and collectively have leverage and/or influence on its price.
Miners or holders of large quantities of bitcoin could also play the futures market selling short, causing panic and when the price drops buy up again.
They could buy up bitcoins at a low price and if/when the price then recovers, rinse and repeat.

This is what was going through my mind and was wondering if my thinking is right.

Asides this, I really do not see any much effect it would have and the mainstream is just going to make it popular and create some awareness anyway.

A lot of people have been very skeptical with the whole CME futures, but I see it as a platform to set us up and even though we may feel the wall street guys who are hardcore manipulators could really have a chance on the system, then those who want to get scared would be the ones to lose out.

That is the reason why the same strong players right now are trying to use that means to create FUDs and get a upper hand in the game. However, the market has grown with huge strength that most of them may not actually have seen it coming.

Nevertheless, for those who are smart enough to know the pranks of the big players, it is always good to just play along with them for profit.

Futures markets won't even affect it at all and it is just a matter of time before people started realizing that this is a whole new game and not the ones that has always been played by the so called wall street guys. We are in a game where no single person can just cause a huge disruption in the market anymore and I am sure they should have been able to understand that by now.

The volume of the futures is almost non-existent. It's clear that professional investors don't care too much about bitcoin so it's not impacting bitcoin at all. The numbers corraborate that. Everyone was speculating to what the outcome was going to be and it turns out that no one serious cares about it.

Its not just about the mainstream inclination but more than that. Futures is actually getting into crypto and theoretically they are turning into bridge between the crypto world and the real world. I mean how many people could have trusted the bitcoin more or less in the near future time? If the futures company and more keep coming like this into the picture then it won't be far that government will also try to get into it and try to implement the thing with the pubic sector. So thats even bigger bonus for the bitcoin and thus more money into bitcoin market.

The future is unknown, most probably bitcoin will keep increasing and altcoins will be more eminent as well, volatility will be reduced by some extent as well. Btc will still remain as the most popular and powerful cryptocurrency , even with the rise of various alts.

the future will be very impactful with bitcoin, because a many people who sell and buy bitcoin. It's about how we can manage our finances in bitcoin, a lot of people want bitcoin so there will be a time when bitcoin will reduced.

I believe that we are going to digital currency age in the future where cash will no longer be needed. Bitcoin might not be supported by many, but the time will come where its technology behind it will be adapted. The blockchain technology is one of the best technology found out. It was proven to be effective and helpful to use as cryptocurrency. Bitcoin will be the starting point of digital age, and maybe it is going to be the very parent coin of all. Bitcoin is going to be the new dollar.

We cannot say all transactions are fast yet most especially for BTC, we still have a long way to go with transactions, but that is not really a problem, knowing that we are really going to be doing fine in the long run. The futures are just here to do their own thing and that does not affect anyone as far as I am concerned and the market will still keep getting stronger with or without them.

You all were expecting to see the futures killing bitcoin, i have seen a lot of posts like that in the past, you all were talking shit about the futures and bitcoin.
But they increased the price a lot.

I think people can control bitcoin, so the future impact will start when people sell their bitcoins. Furthermore if the miner fees will increase more it will be a big problem. So the best move now is to fix this thing first.

Futures will reduce the cost of bitcoin, or at least not allow it to grow rapidly. Futures are an indirect instrument of the market, they hold the fiat currencies outside the crypto market.

Well for me the market is a kind of place that people trade their coin and also there we can see how bitcoin is running and how it would make the future a good impact as people continue to used

Bitcoin is a super coin for now in the world. If you think about the past lots of criticism about bitcoin but it has run its way and showed the world what the coin is. O think in our future life its will be all about to bitcoin. People will not use cash transactions in near future.  Bitcoin is a big platform of secure transaction.  And also a platform like cryptocurrency you can earn from there by trading. So bitcoin has a lots of advantages.  People of the modern era will move badly to bitcoin in future.  I hope there will be no cash then.  Only crypto transaction. As the price move arount 20000$ it is still oing up.Never stop his going. Its just prove that how people are using it on his life and also how its use increasing day by day. So I think the future will be all about to bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

What actually happened, though, is that no one important has invested in bitcoin futures, the volume when it launched was close to non-existent and it still is. Bitcoin futures basically did nothing and the crash that we are seeing these days was expected after the huge artificial increase. It's a shame that bitcoin is still dragging other cryptos down with it.

I'm not sure it is just about Bitcoin dragging other coins down. People who are investing in Bitcoin may well be the same people who are also investing in altcoins, and when they think it is time to sell and cash out, they will likely sell every coin they have, though not necessarily all of them. Long story short, the main cause of the whole cryptomarket going down may lie beyond Bitcoin going down. Bitcoin just happens to be at the top, so don't shoot the messenger.

Users can use bitcoin very comfortably. Bitcoin holds its top position since the beginning till now though there are so many altcoins in cryptocurrency.

Other crypto growing up because the world is digitalizing day by day so it is very difficult to say about the future of any crypto but bitcoin is very much advanced than any other altcoins. It changes its value very quickly and no one can predict that will increase or decrease so that we can not say properly of this coins future.
People will consent more into it and it will go ahead if it gives more benefit and facilities. All things depend on peoples mind and that's facilities.

We experienced modern life today more on newly technologies been created that can help our life more easier .Like bitcoins they invented for better purposes they uses it for the future markets for paying bills that helps people to sit back relax and no more worries for its transaction. It gives people satisfaction when using it.

Futures can really impact the Bitcoin because the volume and price will increase because it is supported by specific company or government.
They can see this as savings and they can reduce the risk of price fluctuations and their balance sheet were distorted because of sudden change in prices.
As we have experienced last year, the Bitcoin price is really increase a lot and reached the highest price many times so I'm hoping that they will issue futures again.

Future serves as the biggest opportunity for Bitcoin to boom. As time goes by, the word of Bitcoin is continuously spreading worldwide.
Given the fact that it was extremely volatile, there is a big chance that it will increase it's value and hit millions in the future. Seems like a good news for our fellow users.

I think in 2018 will have a positive impact on price, this will be a good profit for investors, we can know from the high appeal of bitcoin on market.Bitcoin as number one of digital currency in the world now ,for sure,that will make bitcoin be bright in the future

The value of Bitcoin is determined by the number of people or businesses that receive Bitcoin. If Bitcoin develops, it will be very good for Bitcoin, but if fewer people use Bitcoin, this will have a negative impact on the price and use of Bitcoin itself.

i feel like they already have a lot of influence on the market atm , every month twice a month a pump and then a dump happens . all this long and short shit is ruining the market , but this is what could've been expected when the banks entered.

In future people will get more educated and thus will be more aware of bitcoins natures and will abolish it themselves

It now happens all the time. Bitcoin has become an important thing in the financial system in the world. Now everyone is interested in bitcoin so we'll see there are some people or communities trying to do dumping and pumping for the benefit of him personally. In the future that bitcoin could be an important commodity, look at the join time we can see the data that bitcoin transaction volume is very big and I can say that now bitcoin is much better than paypal. Everyone is very easy to use bitcoin and also everyone can easily have bitcoin, this is an advantage possessed by bitcoin because not all financial systems can be as easy as what can be done by bitcoin.

I feel bitcoin already influence in market.also i believe that it has a positive impact on the market as it adds a massive amount of liquidity.i hope bitcoin impact of market in future  in positive way.

With progress of time btcs and the faults within its policies and blockchains will be completely ponzi proof :)

It cant be states before hand because btcs are still a gambling currency and needs to be experimented at national level

I have no idea regarding btcs too much because I am newbie and I need to research further to say anything about the btcs

In future replacing all the other real world assets, btc will be the principle and may be also regulated as daily currency who knows

So is this futures is some sort of an investment that you would be paid in cash instead of bitcoin where you invested? Do they trade to increase the bitcoin amount or do they still give exact amount of cash to investors even when the bitcoin price is down?

The coming future greatly affect bitcoin but i believe its for the good because as we see the trend of technology today that majority of monetary transaction is done electronically, so bitcoin as a digital curreny will play an important rule for the money of the next generation.

It gave a lot of financial income in every household especially the unemployed ones.. they gave opportunity and they teach people how to earned ..

In future people will get more educated and thus will be more aware of bitcoins natures and will abolish it themselves