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https://discussions.blob.core.windows.net/predictious/Predictious-Logo-1.png (http://www.predictious.com)

Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) - The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market.

Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) has launched on July 11th 2013, we are starting this official thread as we would love you to try and win Bitcoins! Please also provide feedback, we really want to hear suggestions on how we can make it better.

A true Prediction Market:
Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) is a true Prediction Market, similar to a futures exchange (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_exchange). Here are two big advantages for users to bet on Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) and not on the other betting websites:

• Users decide on the odds. If their prediction is right, they will win mBTC10 (= BTC0.01) per share. Most if not all other websites use a pari-mutuel betting system: all bets are placed in a pool, and when the outcome of the event is determined, the winners share the funds in that pool, which is very unfair for early traders (the odds may change over time).
• Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) is like a stock market, users don't have to wait for the event to occur, they can re-sell their shares (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1194981-how-do-i-sell-the-shares-i-ve-bought-) whenever they want, to unlock profit early.

Why you should use Predictious (http://www.predictious.com):

• Win Bitcoins: Bet on an event to occur, win Bitcoins if you're right. Bitcoins will be transferred into your Predictious account as soon as the event is resolved. Read more on how to make money with Predictious (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1194954-how-do-i-earn-money-with-predictious-).
• Guaranteed odds: Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) users choose how many shares they want to buy, and what price they are willing to pay for each share (between 0 and mBTC10). If their prediction is correct, they win mBTC10 per share. More on how to buy shares with Predictious (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1194963-how-do-i-buy-or-sell-shares-).
• No Maximum: Is you're certain an event is going to occur, bet on Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) any amount you want, you will win mBTC10 per share.
• Unlock profits (or cut losses) early and speculate: Users have the possibility to re-sell their shares before the event date, allowing them to make a profit immediately regardless of the outcome of the event. Read more on how to sell the shares you've bought. (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1194981-how-do-i-sell-the-shares-i-ve-bought-)
• Secure:
  
  • Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) is protected by SSL.
  • Each user has a unique Bitcoin wallet address to transfer Bitcoins to. Read more on how to transfer Bitcoins to your Predictious account (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1221994-how-to-buy-bitcoins-and-transfer-them-to-my-predictious-account-).
  • Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) users only need a Google Account to sign in. Google has one of the most secure authentication service in the industry. Users also have the possibility to enable two steps authentication (https://support.google.com/accounts/answer/180744?hl=en). Read more about Predictious login (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222260-why-do-you-require-a-google-account-).
    
• Short selling: If users think an event will not occur, they can buy short shares (equivalent to selling long shares). Short shares resolve at mBTC10 when the event doesn't occur.
• Transparent: At any time, users can see their balance, positions (https://www.predictious.com/account/shares), open orders (https://www.predictious.com/account/openorders), transaction history (https://www.predictious.com/account/transactions), resolved contracts (https://www.predictious.com/account/resolved). Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) also offers visibility into the market depth for each contract.
• No minimum to transfer or withdraw: Users can transfer any amount of Bitcoin to their Predictious account. (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1221994-how-to-buy-bitcoins-and-transfer-them-to-my-predictious-account-)
• No Transfer Fee: Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) doesn't take any fee when you transfer or withdraw money. Read more about Predictious fees (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222008-what-are-the-fees-on-predictious-).
• Minimum Bet: The minimum bet for a share is as low as BTC0.00001 = mBTC0.01.
• Predictious API (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1233595-overview-of-the-trading-api): Predictious also offers an API (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1233595-overview-of-the-trading-api) for users willing to do market making.

Categories::

• Sports (https://www.predictious.com/sports) (American Football, Basketball, Tennis, etc.)
• Politics (https://www.predictious.com/politics) (2016 American Elections, Next US FED chairman, etc.)
• Economics (https://www.predictious.com/economics) (Price of Bitcoins, etc.)
• Entertainement (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment) (Movies gross, Emmy Awards, Music Awards, etc.)
• Science & Tech (https://www.predictious.com/science-tech) (Lumia vs Samsung, etc.)
• Business (https://www.predictious.com/business) (Facebook stock price, etc.)

And if you want to submit a market, please send us suggestions (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/emails/new)!

Useful Links::
Predictious Official website (https://www.predictious.com/)
Predictious Support Center Support Center (https://predictious.desk.com/)
Contact the Predictious team Contact (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/emails/new)
Predictious API (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1233595-overview-of-the-trading-api)
@Predictious Twitter (https://twitter.com/predictious)
Predictious Facebook page (http://www.facebook.com/Predictious)
Predictious on Google+ (https://plus.google.com/113871614842973752902)

Screenshots::

https://discussions.blob.core.windows.net/predictious/Screenshot-2.pnghttps://discussions.blob.core.windows.net/predictious/Screenshot-4.png
https://discussions.blob.core.windows.net/predictious/Screenshot-15.pnghttps://discussions.blob.core.windows.net/predictious/Screenshot-14.png

Again, you can try Predictious (http://www.predictious.com) with only a few millibitcoins (mBTC1 = BTC0.001), all you need is a Google Account (https://www.google.com/accounts).

Please post here any question you may have and/or feedback.

The Premier.. ???

Could you list some of your competitors for me?
About 4~6 would be fine.

So that I can compare yours and others.  ;D

Hi Coinprize,

here are the 2 other Bitcoin prediction markets we know of: bitbet.us and betsofbitco.in, however they use bet pooling, which is unfair for early traders and doesn't allow you to trade out of your position (with Predictious, the users set the odds themselves, and they can sell their bets before the event ends).

There are also a few sport Bitcoin betting sites: nitrogensports.com, bitbook.biz, anonibet.com.

Betfair would be our biggest competitor in the fiat currency world.

Hope this helps, don't hesitate if you have any further questions.

Nice, you should look at some of competitors for ideas to add more events also, so you can see what's popular.

Or a Small bounty for unique ideas that generate a lot of bets...

  !>                    122dS8stWBaXeVDK5JbQG96sduV25ozE2n                 Heh!

I think one of the older Prediction markets did that at one time, not sure if it's still ongoing.

We now have the following new markets on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com):

Bitcoin:

• Price of Bitcoin on Aug 13th 2013 10pm UTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-bitcoin-aug-13th-2013)
• Bitcoin Maximum before September 30th 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-maximum-sept-30-2013)
• Next difficulty increase of the Bitcoin network (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-difficulty-block-august-2013)

Business:

• Close price of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) on August 9th 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/business/price-apple-august-9-2013)
• Close price of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) on August 9th 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/business/price-facebook-august-9-2013)

Sport:

• 2020 Summer Olympics host (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2020-summer-olympics-host)
• 2013 PGA Championship winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2013-pga-championship-winner)
• Tiger Woods Major Championships Wins (https://www.predictious.com/sports/tiger-woods-major-championships-wins)

Eventually you should have at least
...the top 3 Nasdaq stocks by mkt cap.  ( http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=cap_mega&o=-marketcap)
*AAPL
*GOOG
*MSFT

...top 3 NYSE
*XOM
*JNJ
*WMT

...top 3 currency pairs       (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/)

*EURUSD
*USDJPY
*USDCHF

...and top 3 commodities   (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/)
*Gold
*Oil
*Copper

Also
*US 10 yr T-Bond yield   http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/

But perhaps a weekly bet for each is too much... monthly maybe?

Cheap (?) hedging! Although not just for stocks. May be more useful with the price of Bitcoin itself.

Sounds interesting

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added:
- EUR-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/eur-usd-exchange-rate-august-30th-2013)
- GBP-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/gbp-usd-exchange-rate-august-30th-2013)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average close August 30th 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/dow-jones-industrial-average-close-august-30th-2013)
- Close price of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) on August 30th 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/business/price-google-august-30-2013)
and we'll consider adding more.

Great. Now what you need are market makers. Nobody wants to trade a thin market and nobody wants large (or non-existent) bid-ask spreads. Normally the way to kick-start this a bit is by getting a few pro traders to create a market by entering multiple orders. This increases liquidity and makes trading more attractive.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp

Good market makers can generate a steady profit, just like good bookies. If you can attract a few of them to your site, you will ensure more liquidity and market depth, making it much more interesting for punters, and a much more efficient prediction market.

Either that... or get a dozen Beta-testers and give away a few BTC on the condition that they bet on every single statement.

As a trader who is very much fed up with the paperwork involved in traditional fx, options, equity trading platforms... I am very much looking forward to your success. If you can tap into the FX market, you could be huge.

Uh... the event date for all of these bets seems wrong:

https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/breaking-bad-season-finale

The Breaking Bad Season 5 Finale is not August 10th. That is merely when the Season 5 (second half) starts.

Thanks for your feedback, we are working with a few people interested in doing market making for a few specific markets. We also have a Trading API (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/topics/546342-trading-api/articles) for people who wants to become maket makers for Predictious.


Yes, but in theory, the characters may die at any episode. People can't all watch it at the same time (as opposed to a sport event), and we don't want to favor people who can watch it "live".

Hey, just found out about this site and I am very excited for it. I was a huge fan of inTrade and have been waiting for a BTC replacement. Following up on the above comment, will you only be entertaining markets which have a set close date? I understand the difficulty in settling markets with a "floating" close, but excluding them will cut out many potentially popular ones. Is there any chance you will be including them going forward? Such markets which were present on inTrade or follow the inTrade spirit (most with "floating" close dates):

- North Korean military action market/Kim Jong-Un leadership market
- Edward Snowden/Julian Assange asylum market
- Global Warming market
- Extra-terrestrial market
- Iran/US conflict market
- Bashaar Assad presidency market

Hi,
I've seen similar sites and I just don't understand it well enough. Say I want to say YES for an item and it theres a green "BID" price and a red "sell" price, which would I pick? I assume it would be the green one or something. And my payout would be 10? Its confusing to me. I wish they just said click here if you want yes, you pay this. Click here if you want no you pay this price. Payout is always 10mbtc. Please explain it for me, I apologize but would like to give your site a shot once I understand it better.

If you think an event will occur, you need to buy shares (the green button). The price indicated in the green button is the ask, at which you can immediately buy a share. If your prediction is correct, you will receive 10mBTC per share. So assuming you paid your shares 2 mBTC, you will make 8 mBTC profit per share (4:1 odds). You can also place a limit order to a price lower than the ask, and wait for the price to go down, if you think it will.
If you think an event will NOT occur, you can sell shares. You can sell even if you don't own a share, that's called short selling. In that case, you will own a short share. Short shares are redeemed at 10 mBTC if the event does NOT occur.

Looking better now, site seems a bit more saturated with available bets.  Still seeing big spreads and low volume, but that's probably to be expected for a while.

Hello,

Bitcoin is undergoing a hard fork to Scrypt by block 256000.

You must take action by then: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=268902.msg2876840;boardseen#new

Not sure why you would post that in this thread.  Are you suggesting this as a bet on Predictious?

One way to make this work better would be an optional "Cancel my offer at X time" which would allow people to make offers that would end before the next episode at which point they could re-evaluate if they wanted to and post a new offer. Those who do watch could have an exciting time making and revoking offers in real time during episodes. Same thing with sporting events and elections.

Markets like these will always favor those who can give more attention and study. I think providing tools to make it as simple as possible for people to express their money-backed-opinions is a reasonable goal.

Thanks, this is a good suggestion. We will look into that.

I don't like the way it reads either.  I would like it to say bid/ask(or maybe add this in parenthesis).  "Sell at"  is kind of strange for me.

Was just browsing the site, and notice the events weren't sorting by which ends soonest as they normally do.  I assumed it was intended for them to be sorted that way automatically as there's no option to chose what it sorts by yet.  If you do add that option I would think sort by ending, sort by most popular, sort by newest added would make good choices.

Thanks for the feedback. If that sounds strange, we might change it to simply "Bid" and "Ask".


Yes, it is now sorted so that the smallest bid/ask spread are shown first. We might add a way to select how to order the contracts like you are suggesting.

Ok, wouldn't have thought of that.  Was nice sorted by ending soonest since I mostly bet on short term ones.

Why not start network difficulty contract because there is a bunch of them already:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/CoinBr.iDiff-O

Thanks for the suggestion. We had a few contracts (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-network-difficulty?expired=True) about the network difficulty already, but we will probably create a new one soon.

We've now added back a Bitcoin Network Difficulty contract (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-network-difficulty-sept-30-2013).

Quick action!
1. Have you considered the option of going public-owned so the risk could be shared among peers? like http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.BBET,  http://bitbet.us/. Trust me, it's going to catch lots of attention which is exactly what the website need.
2. Another question is that is peer allowed to create contract through some kind of review/approval mechanism?
3. Your website is mentioned in bitcoinmagazine: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/july-in-review/

At last, the website features lots of innovation. I have already promoted it in my twitter.
Keep on the good work.

Maybe you may try to add some more sports betting oriented predictions and attract gamblers from that scene.

That would make Predictious to seem a little more like Betfair (P2P wagering) but would boost traffic. Players should add some daily sports prediction lines.

More flexible rules would be appreciated in order to add some sports betting oriented predictions: moneyline, spreads, totals (over/under), sports props, etc.

That may be an idea worth considering.

Cheers!

1.Don't think they have risk unless they're market making.  
2.This is good, I think either bitbet or betsofbitcoin has this, and would help them get a feel for which events players would like to see.

As I watched some of the events I noticed some expire, bitcoin difficulty for example, without another one to take it's place for a while.  That makes it difficult to do continuation bet.  I hope the betting picks up, would like to see volume similar to Intrade eventually.

We have created a new event about the network difficulty (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-network-difficulty-sept-30-2013) for end of September. We plan to have more rolling contracts over time. We will soon have a weekly contract about the USD price of BTC.

Maybe you should try putting up a contract for Monday Night's NFL game.  I'll put up some bid/asks if you do.

Now added:

• Washington Redskins to win against Pittsburgh Steelers (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2013/washington-redskins-win-pittsburgh-steelers)
• Pittsburgh Steelers to win against Washington Redskins (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2013/pittsburgh-steelers-win-washington-redskins)

Let us know if there are other NFL games you want to see.

Nice, I think the short term and popular events will bring more people.  Does this site work on smartphone?

sounds good I will try this in near future  ??? ??? ???

New feature in Predictious (http://www.predictious.com): you can now order contracts by "Time left", "Newest Contracts" and "Market Spread".

And we've now added price charts for each contract, for example check this page (https://www.predictious.com/politics/next-us-federeal-reserve-chairman/janet-yellen).

Looking good.  Coming along slowly(very slowly) but surely.

New feature on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com): You can now set your account timezone in your Predictious settings (https://www.predictious.com/account/settings).

New Markets:

• Men's US Open 2013 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/mens-us-open-2013-winner)
• Gold Price in September 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/gold-price-in-september-2013)
• Silver Price in September 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/silver-price-in-september-2013)
• Gold Price at 2013 end (https://www.predictious.com/economics/gold-price-at-2013-end)

Can we have Denver to beat Baltimore by 8 or more points?   That would be Denver (-7.5).

New feature on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com): Possibility to change the odd format (Decimal, Share Price, MoneyLine, and soon Fractional)

New Markets:

• Price of Bitcoin on October 15th 2013 10pm UTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-bitcoin-oct-15-2013)
• Mercury Prize 2013 Winner (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/mercury-prize-2013-winner)
• Captain Phillips Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/captain-phillips-weekend-gross)
• The Wolf of Wall Street Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/wolf-of-wall-street-gravity-weekend-gross)
• The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/hunger-games-catching-fire-weekend-gross)
• Thor: The Dark World Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/thor-the-dark-world-weekend-gross)
• Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-weekend-gross)
• Carrie Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/carrie-weekend-gross)
• Gravity Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/gravity-weekend-gross)
• Bitcoin Maximum Sept 30th 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-maximum-sept-30-2013)
• Bitcoin network difficulty Sept 30 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-network-difficulty-sept-30-2013)

Nice I will have to take a look at these soon.  With some of the events I noticed trading ends long before the event, sometimes 1 month.  e.g. top grossing movie q3 2013, but this locks users money in when they should be able to trade out.    Since this isn't parimutuel betting we don't really need to do that.

Good feedback, we'll do this for future events!

where can I see market depth (other than API)?

i found it under contract details.

is there any info on volume? most traded recently? most total market depth? etc
thanks

Not yet, but we'll consider adding this in the future.

New Market:

• MLB World Series 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/mlb-world-series-2013)

Suggested market:
fed gov shutdown
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/09/24/us/politics/what-congress-must-do-to-avoid-a-shutdown.html

Suggested market:
United States would be forced to default on its debt in October
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis_of_2013

Thanks for the suggestions, we've now added this contract:

• US debt ceiling to be raised in October 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-debt-ceiling/raised-october-2013)

I'm just looking at this site now, it's great!  will be depositing a few mBTC to try it out :)

Thanks!

New Markets:

• Bitcoin Maximum October 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-maximum)
• Bitcoin Minimum October 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-minimum)
• Gold Maximum October 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/gold-maximum)
• Silver Maximum October 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/silver-maximum)
• Top Grossing Movie Q4 2013 (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/top-grossing-movie-q4-2013)

We've now added all NFL Games (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2013) on Predictious (http://www.predictious.com).

This looks awesome :)

Why do the NFL game contracts end when the game starts? Why not allow trading all the way through until the game ends?

We received this feedback and changed the time of most games so that the contracts close 2h after the beginning of the game.

New contracts added today:

• New Jersey gubernatorial election (https://www.predictious.com/politics/new-jersey-gubernatorial-election-2013)
• Virginia gubernatorial election (https://www.predictious.com/politics/virginia-gubernatorial-election-2013)

Thanks! But that's a little weird, they should close after the game ends. You are going to have to declare a winner yourself anyway, I don't see anything wrong with the contract being live until then.

You have a fantastic idea here, I just don't think you are executing the sports side of it the right way. Why do you have two contracts for each side of the same game? You are effectively cutting the liquidity pool in half for no good reason that I can think of.

Do you remember tradesports? They had the right idea. You need two contracts per game. One with a straight up winner, and one with a spread. For example:

GiantsVsBears.Bears 
GiantsVsBears.Bears -9.5

That's it. If people want the Bears, they go long... If they want the Giants, they go short. It's simple and it basically doubles the market depth per contract compared to the system you are using now.

I would love to see your site take off and become the next betfair, but tradesports style.

The best setup would be if they cancelled all orders when the game starts, and then left the contract open for live betting until the game ends.

Don't worry, our system is smart enough to not cut the liquidities.

Yes, we are working on options to do this.

Excellent idea after hubdub and intrade. As previous poster noticed, liquidity could be the main problem of prediction markets. Is it possible to create our own questions (markets)?

I think this would be a good idea. It would make the site an alternative to existing sites like bit bet and bets of Bitcoin.

You can send us market suggestions (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1195002), however we don't allow users to directly submit markets as we want to make sure they meet certain guidelines.

New Markets posted today:

• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/the-desolation-of-smaug-weekend-gross)
• Ender's Game Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/ender-s-game-weekend-gross)

I'm confused as to what "sell" means.

Does sell mean I'm selling someone else the binary option, i.e, I'm issuing it, so if it DOES happen I'll have to pay out 0.01 BTC / share?

Or does it mean if it DOESN'T happen, I'll make 0.01 BTC / share?

@theonewhowaskazu: When you short sell at say mBTC4 per share that means you will have to pay a collateral of mBTC10-mBTC4 = mBTC6 per share. If you win (the event does not happen), you get back your collateral (mBTC6) + mBTC4 = mBTC10. If you lose (the event did happen), you lose your collateral (mBTC6).
Don't hesitate if you have more questions.


New Markets:

• Bitcoin New all time high (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2013)
• Frozen 2013 Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/frozen-2013-weekend-gross)

Thanks, I really like the site btw. Had some luck with the DOW. Considering adding VIX bets to your site? I'd probably do really well on those  :P

For example, "VIX to close above the previous day's close on 10/25/2013."

I really like the design of your site. Looks professional and a smart way to connect different kinds of predictive gambling onto one website.

Thanks for the suggestion! We've now added the following market on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/):

• Weekly VIX close (https://www.predictious.com/economics/weekly-vix-close)

I like the idea behind the site, but you definitely need to do something to get more users. Barely any of the bets even have both buys and sells. You might have to do some sort of promo to get more users.

Can you explain why all of the candidates for Time's Person of the Year are bid at 9.90?

Doesn't this mean that they're ALL enormous favorites to win?

Shouldn't they all be Sells at 9.90 instead, as there's probably no clear cut favorite?

I do believe "bitcoin new all time high" https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2013/reach-266 has been reached and this contract should be settled.

Hi Shadallion, On Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/), users can set their own prices. In this instance, it means someone has placed a sell order at $9.9 per share. You're however free to set a buy order at a lower price. If someone is then ok to sell you shares at your given price, your orders will be matched, and you will then own shares. Here it's not ideal, this market is unfortunately lacking liquidities, hence the unattractive odds. We however encourage you to set your own price if you want your order to be matched.

You can read more about this in our HelpCenter article Can I set my own market price? How is this done? (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1195001-can-i-set-my-own-market-price-how-is-this-done-)


Thanks for the suggestion Maurya78, we'll look into adding Cricket.

question to Predictious:
why does your logo look like a toilet seat?
seriously.

Haven't you heard the toilet seat is the cleanest place in the house (http://www.beethatasitmay.com/2012/11/18/the-toilet-seat-is-one-of-the-cleanest-places-in-your-home/)? So is our interface ;)

I'm not sure this is the right thread for this, but I believe I'm witnessing a glitch with Predictious at the time.

https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-option-spreads/spread-usd-btc-dec-15-2013

This market has open orders to buy and sell at the same price, yet the orders aren't filling each other.

Sorry for that, this is now resolved.

My transaction has 8 confirmations and deposit still doesn't show in my account. Is it normal?

Still no deposit. I advise everyone to refrain from depositing until this is solved.

This bug happened to me, I sent them a facebook message and it was fixed

We have experienced some delays in processing deposits yesterday, but this is now resolved. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Here's a question. How do you make money?  Are there trading fees?  because you're not the market makers.

https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222008-what-are-the-fees-on-predictious-

Currently, I can only view 1 page of transaction history. Can this be changed so I can see my entire history?

Is this the right thread to offer feedback and suggestions for the website? I'm overall quite happy and impressed with the platform you have, but I still have a few items on my wishlist that I think would make the site better.

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added it to our list of feature requests.


Yes please feel free to add here. Or you can also reach out to us directly through this form (http://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/emails/new).

we can add our predictions or just have to follow your predictions

You can suggest contracts, please see here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1195002) for instructions.

Probably a really stupid question, I'm unfamiliar with derivatives, is this the nature of the game? I can buy into Hillary Clinton winning the next election, If I'm right then those who bet against her losing , their bitcoins are lost and go to those who bet on her winning. Is this correct? How does the payout work? ELI5 please.

You're correct!

If you think Hillary Clinton will win the next Presidential elections, you can place an order to buy a long share Hillary Clinton. You can place an order at any price between mBTC0 and mBTC10. Let's say you place an order at mBTC 3. If somebody is willing to take your bet, you will receive a long share. If Hillary Clinton wins, the long share earns you mBTC 10, which means you made mBTC 7 profit.

Now if you don't think she'll win the elections, you can short sell a share. Let's say you short sell at mBTC 8, you receive 8 mBTC for selling, but you will also have to pay a mBTC 10 deposit in case you lose (we don't allow margin trading). So you will effectively pay mBTC 2. If you are right, you get the deposit back so you made mBTC 8. If you lose, you don't get the deposit back (it goes to the winner) so you will have lost mBTC 2.

Could you make a contract for the NCAA football championship game?

Thanks for the suggestion, we're going to look into adding it.

New Market on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com):

• Golden Globe 2014 Best Picture Drama (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/golden-globe-2014-best-picture-drama)
• Golden Globe 2014 Best Comedy/Musical (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/golden-globe-2014-best-comedy-musical)
• Golden Globe 2014 Best Actor in a Drama (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/golden-globe-2014-best-actor-drama)
• Golden Golden Globe 2014 Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/golden-globe-2014-best-actor-musical-comedy)
• Six Nations Championship Winner 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/six-nations-championship-winner-2014)

We've now added this event: BCS National Championship Game 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/bcs-national-championship-game-2014).

1. It would be great to be able to see history of trades that occurred for a given contract. I know there is a graph, but I'm talking about a list.

2. Tell us what the trade volume is for each contract! Lifetime, 24hr, 7d or something like that.

3. I always want to look at the order book when I'm placing an order, but in the current UI they are on two separate pages.

I see the entertainment section getting big. so many different types of bets you can have on celebs, tv shows, box office ect...

I've been communicating a handful of smaller suggestions and fixes to the site owners, but I'm posting here about one bigger change that I'd like to see and that I think would make this site a lot more usable. It's actually two changes but I think they have a lot of synergy.

What's the issue?

Predictious has many events with dozens of various outcomes of which only one can wind up occurring. For example, the FHM Sexiest Woman, 2016 US President, NCAA Div 1 Basketball champion, etc... Naturally, each event like this has a handful of front-runners and then a large group of long shots who are ~3% or less to win. Besides this, there are other contracts - like 'bitcoin price to reach $2000 in 2013' - that are similarly unlikely to occur. Personally I find these long shots interesting and fun to bet on, but regardless of my tastes these markets exist on Predictious and they should be traded.

What's the problem?

Unfortunately, the current structure of the site makes it excessively difficult and/or expensive to trade these types of long shots. I believe this is so for two reasons:

1) The fee is excessive at the extreme ends of the share prices. For a share price between 1 and 9 mBTC (corresponding to 10%-90% probability), the fee per each share traded is 0.1 mBTC. I don't think this is unreasonable, and it's especially cheap for the 3 to 7 mBTC range where the vig is low compared to most traditional betting websites. At prices below 1 mBTC or above 9 mBTC, the fee per share drops in half to 0.05 mBTC, which makes sense since the fee as it relates to share price increases the further you get from 5 mBTC.

However, as prices dip under 0.5 mBTC and lower (or above 9.5 btc) the fee becomes very significant. A "round trip" of buying and selling shares incurs a fee of 0.1 mBTC per share. If you buy shares at 0.1 mBTC and then sell them at 0.2 mBTC, all of your profit will be eaten up by fees even though you sold shares at twice the price you bought them for. Even if you simply buy shares at 0.25 mBTC and hold them, you will pay a fee equivalent to 20% of your purchase. Compare this to buying and holding at 5 mBTC, where the fee is a mere 2% of your purchase.

2) Currently, Predictious does not support margin linking. What is margin linking, you might ask?

Suppose I have 95 mBTC on my account. I decide to short ten shares of 'Mr. X to win US Presidency in 2016' at 0.5 mBTC a share - ignore fees for the sake of this example. My margin required for this transaction is 95 mBTC, since I am effectively paying 95 mBTC for 10 short shares that can expire worthless, leaving me with 0 mBTC.

Now suppose I decide to short 10 shares of Mr. Y to be President in the same event, also at 0.5 mBTC a share. Currently, Predictious will require another 95 mBTC available balance on my account for me to place this order. Ideally, however, I should be able to place this order with no additional margin. In fact, my margin required should be reduced by 5 mBTC if the order is filled. Before, the worst case scenario for me was if Mr X wins President and I lost my 95 mBTC investment. If I short Mr. Y as well, he and Mr. X can't win at the same time. My new worst case scenario is that either Mr X or My Y win the presidency, which would give me a loss of 95 mBTC on one event and a profit of 5 mBTC on the other event for a total loss of 90 mBTC. Predictious would currently keep 190 mBTC on margin for this position whereas only 90 mBTC is required.

Why is this a problem? Without margin linkage, the margin required for shorting multiple contracts within the same event can be very high. There is opportunity cost and risk associated with having funds tied up on websites for long periods of time. Margin is a requirement for a site like predictious to function but it should be minimized wherever possible. There's just not very much appeal in tying up large amounts of funds for months or possibly more in hopes of a return of 5% or less.

Combined with the relatively more significant fees for trading shares beneath 0.5 mBTC, I believe this strongly discourages activity on the aforementioned "long shot" contracts of which there are many on predictious.

What's my solution?

I realize that implementing margin linking is not a minor development effort, but I hope that this is something that the predictious devs will have time to work on in the coming months. I think it's a worthwhile goal.

As for adjusting the fees, I imagine this can be done more easily. I propose one of two adjustments:

1) Add new rules for the fees on predictious (or rules like this):

"For shares bought or sold between m฿0 and m฿0.5: ฿0.00002 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿9.5 and m฿10: ฿0.00002 per share"

or

2) Replace the fixed fees with a new, simple rule (or one like it):

"Fee per share traded will be 2% of the share price rounded up to the nearest m฿0.01."

I would prefer something like the latter. I prefer a gradual decline of fees as opposed to the two inflection points that currently exist at 1 and 9 mBTC. Furthermore, "2% fee" is an easy concept for regular users to grasp. I think it's easier to understand that you're paying 2% on each transaction rather than "฿0.0001 per share" traded.

I hope this is helpful and I'd be glad to see these solutions implemented in one way or another.

I see margin linking makes lots of sense.  All the candidates can't all win.

Here's another strange thing with the fees in their current form.

Suppose there are two buy orders, one at 0.99 mBTC and the other at 1 mBTC. It would actually be better for a seller to sell to the 0.99 mBTC order rather than the 1.0 mBTC order.

9.01 mBTC per short share + 0.05 mBTC fee = 9.06 mBTC paid per short share for the order at 0.99
9 mBTC per short share + 0.1 mBTC fee = 9.1 mBTC paid per short share for the order at 1.0

This is yet another reason why fees would be better if they were a fixed percentage of each trade rounded up to .01 mBTC.

Thanks a lot for the suggestions, those are really helpful.
 
1) We are considering a slight change in the fee structure to make it more interesting for extremely low or high probabilities (along the lines of what you are suggesting).
2) Margin linking isn't a trivial change to implement, but this is very interesting nonetheless and would help increasing liquidity. We will keep this as a feature request, thanks for the feedback!

For things like the value of bitcoin which exchange(s) do you use to determine the value of bitcoin? Since different exchange have varying prices.

We usually take Bitstamp (USD) taking the price from http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD. In each contract, we make sure to add all the details about the exchange which will be used at resolution.

is the volume picking up at all here?

You list the nominal amount in millibits, but the fee in bitcoins. Why would you do that? Not only does it make it harder to see what's going on, but it sure does make the fee look small...

Sorry for the confusion, we've now updated everything to millibitcoins: https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222008 (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222008)

Update: you can now set an expiration date and time on your orders. More info here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1443474-how-can-i-set-an-expiration-date-time-on-my-orders-).
Also note that this feature is available with the API, read more here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1247059-api-method-post-addorders) and here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1246992-api-method-get-orders).

Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.

Thanks for the suggestion, we will look into it.

Thanks for the quick fix. There's one more thing you could do to clarify, which is, if a trade happens at e.g. *exactly* 0.25mB, what is the fee? In other words, what is the fee on the boundaries?

Wow, this is great, I've wanted a site like this for soooo long.  Can't believe I didn't find out about it until now.



Please bump this up your priority list.  The strange fee structure risks distorting the markets.  Why not something simple like X% of each transaction and Y% of each redemption?  You'll probably be able to charge higher fees by skewing towards lower X and higher Y; from the customer's perspective fees on winning shares are easy to account for, simply treat it as a reduced reward.  Really the per-transaction fees should be just barely high enough to prevent silly HFT-churn-trading; setting them too high discourages arbitrage.



I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market.  It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company.  Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores.  I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one.  It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).

Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency.  Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories.  You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:

• Mt.Gox Insolvency (https://www.predictious.com/economics/mtgox-insolvency)

1) As everybody knows, mtgox is having serious liquidity problems. This post could very easily become obsolete in the next few hours, but...

It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.
Basically, if you look at mtgox prices on the exchange, and you compare them with what people are offering for goxed coins on the "mtgox <-> btc bid/ask" thread here, there has been a huge overlap. It would seem that lots of people should be willing to do trades, but either ignorance or high transaction costs (e.g. fear of getting scammed or being unsure about escrow) is preventing them.

Now, market manipulation might be a problem, conceivably, except that your order books are so thin that that kind of seems like the tail wagging the dog.

Bets for mtgox insolvency is helpful, but I think bets on hitting certain price points would generate a lot of interest. You could publicize it widely: tell a reporter at Wired and I bet they would put up a story right away. I think people would trade, and a lot of people would be happy.

thanks

Thanks for the quick response!

I'd like to bring some liquidity to your order book, but I can't figure out how to log into your site.  I do not have a google account and can't get one.

I can understand why predictious might not want to create zillions of contracts with every possible combination of date/time/price… it clutters up the list of contracts and it looks bad for them to have markets with empty order books.

One thing they might consider is offering "meta markets" consisting of a contract term with variables ("mtgox price to fall below $X before date Y") and display only those variable combinations for which there are orders on the order book.  As long as the API presents this in a sensible way people will step up with market-maker bots across the variable combinations, for a spread… sorta like how the banks keep the order books for the options market full by using Black-Scholes and subtracting out their fee (which manifests itself as the nontrivial bid/ask spread you always see on options markets).  That way when an infrequent end user shows up and wants a specific kind of hedge there's always some depth there waiting for them.

I, too tried to log in yesterday to make my first trades, but stopped when it looked like I was forced to go through Google.

Thanks for the suggestion! We've now added the following market:

• Price of Bitcoin Mt.Gox Feb 28th (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-mt-gox-feb-28-2014)
• Price of Bitcoin Mt.Gox Feb 25th (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-mt-gox-feb-25-2014)

We'll add more if this gets popular.



Yes, you do need a google account, it only takes a few minutes to create one, and if privacy is a concern you do not have to enter your real name when creating it.
Here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222260-why-do-you-require-a-google-account-) are the reasons why we've decided to use google for our authentication system.

just tried to visit site for first time and could not access site.  Obviously not impressed. 

We had a temporary outage due to an issue with our DNS host, this is now resolved.

Check out our new blog: http://blog.predictious.com/ (http://blog.predictious.com/)

Absolutely not, this is a violation of Google's terms of service.  You're probably going to get your google authentication API privileges yanked for printing that both here and on your website.

Google also reserves the right to lock your account and require a working SMS-receiving cell phone number to identify you before unlocking it (even if you never gave them your phone number in the first place).  They claim this is some sort of anti-spammer thing.  I am not going to trust my coins to an organization that (a) will let google lock me out of my deposits and (b) can't figure out how to use a standard like OpenID (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenID).  This is extra surprising since google's authentication APIs are basically just a proprietization of OpenID.

Sad, really.  You've got a nice little site but clearly the security is not thought through well at all.  You have major technological counterparty risk and seem to be unaware of it.

added just in time  :)

Thanks for raising your concerns. As far as we know, it is not in violation with Google's terms of service. Please point us to the clause in question if you think it is, and we will look into it.

This has never been a problem with any Predictious user so far. We will work with any user who finds themselves in that situation to make sure they can access their funds some other way.

By only allowing Google, we ensure every user gets a consistent level of security we are comfortable with. If the question of authentication becomes a recurring issue brought up by users, we will definitely look at offering alternatives.

There is actually no counterparty risk. From the point of view of Predictious, users are identified by their email addresses. Should there be a problem with Google, we could easily swap it out for a different mechanism.

We hope our answers will help, happy to follow up if you have more things to raise.

We published a new article on our blog: Predictious users correctly predicted the Oscars’ winners (http://blog.predictious.com/2014/03/03/predictious-users-correctly-predicted-the-oscars-winners/)

The article is OK but you need to do something about all the link spam in the comments.

Thanks for the heads up, we've now removed the spam comments.

Yes unfortunately we are still experiencing some delays with some of the deposits due to the blockchain.info outage, but we confirm funds are safe. Don't hesitate to contact us (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/emails/new).

Sorry for the inconvenience.

If this site ever gains liquidity I think it would be awesome.  As is, can't use it.

is the only way to log in and use your site and bet with bitcoins with a GMAIL Account???

Correct you need a google account. You can read more about this here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222260).

They could improve that by offering zero commission for liquidity providing orders.

another thing they have to do hardcore marketing for Predictious coz its take time to gain trust and poplarity.

Another one would be a referral program whereby the account that refers a new client gets a share of that new client's fee revenues.

liquidity seems quite low for the majority of the bets.
maybe offer less markets or employ some kind of a market maker?
I know even betfair uses a company to offer starting liquidity for every market (of course with bad odds), but it
guarantees an influx of new money and makes the order book thicker.

Yes we have partnerships with some market makers. If you know anyone interested, please let us know.

I am a newbie to this market.

Let's take the example of Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize
If I short sell it for 0.10 m฿, it means that I win 9,90 m฿ if it doesn't happen?

You want to sell "Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/nobel-peace-prize-2014/edward-snowden)" meaning you think this will not happen. If your prediction is correct (i.e he doesn't win the Nobel Peace Prize), you will win the price for which you sold the shares, so in your example 0.1m฿ for each (short) share you own. If you lose, you would lose (10m฿ - 0.1m฿) = 9.9m฿ per share.

So basically, if you buy a contract, you will win 10mB for each share of this contract you own (if you’re correct). On the opposite, if you sell a contract (because you think an event will not occur), you win the price you sell for.

Note that in Predictious you can set your own odds. Of course if you set a selling price per share too high (high return for you), there might be a risk that noone matches your bet (your open order won’t be matched and you won’t own any share). If you click on the Market depth tab, you can see the available ask/bid price (for example someone is selling 3 shares at 2.65mB; 10 shares at 2.85mB, etc.).

To make it clearer we've now written this blog article: How do I calculate the price of an order from the stake I want? (http://blog.predictious.com/2014/05/25/how-to-calculate-the-price-of-an-order-from-the-stake-i-want/).

Maybe you should try adding some NBA "moneylines" (Team A vs Team B) or Totals (Over/Under) to your contracts.

Lets see how it develops!  ;)

Keep up the good work!

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added the following contracts (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nba-2014-series):

• Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/5/2014) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nba-2014-series/miami-heat-wins-vs-san-antonio-spurs-june5)
• Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/8/2014) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nba-2014-series/miami-heat-wins-vs-san-antonio-spurs-June8)
• Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/10/2014) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nba-2014-series/miami-heat-wins-vs-san-antonio-spurs-June10)
• Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/12/2014) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nba-2014-series/miami-heat-wins-vs-san-antonio-spurs-June12)

As always, you can buy shares if you think these will happen (Miami Heat winning these matches), and sell shares if you think these will not happen (San Antonio Spurs winning these matches).

Its cool that you added nba its my favorite sport thank you.

Continuing on Basketball, we've now added the FIBA Worldcup 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fiba-worldcup-2014).

Here are the odds on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/):

Group Stage matches (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Brazil to win vs Croatia (Group A) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/brazil-wins-vs-croatia-groupa)	x5.13	x1.13
Chile to win vs Australia (Group B) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/chile-wins-vs-australia-groupB)	x4	x1.23
Spain to win vs Netherlands (Group B) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/spain-wins-vs-netherlands-groupB)	x1.96
Uruguay to win vs Costa Rica (Group D) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/uruguay-wins-vs-costa-rica-groupD)	x1.96

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
USA (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/usa)		x37
Brazil (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/brazil)	x1.32	x3.13
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.18	x5.13
Uruguay (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/uruguay)	x1.01	x19.2
Italy (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/italy)	x1.06	x14.5
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x1.12	x6.58
Spain (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/spain)	x1.12	x5.29
France (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/france)	x1.02	x16.1
Portugal (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/portugal)	x1.02	x19.2
Belgium (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/belgium)	x1.02	x17.5
Holland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/holland)	x1.01	x16.4
England (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/england)	x1.01	x22.7
Colombia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/colombia)	x1.01	x21.3

Formula 1 world drivers' & constructors' championships now on Predictious:

• Formula One World Driver 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/formula-one-world-driver-2014)
• Formula One World Constructor 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/formula-one-world-constructor-2014)

 

Group Stage matches (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Colombia to win against Greece (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/colombia-wins-vs-greece-groupC)	x2.78	x1.43
Uruguay to win against Costa Rica (Group D) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/uruguay-wins-vs-costa-rica-groupD)	x4.17	x1.22
England to win against Italy (Group D) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/england-wins-vs-italy-groupD)	x1.88	x1.86

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
USA (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/usa)		x35.7
Brazil (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/brazil)	x1.33	x3.73
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.19	x4.42
Uruguay (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/uruguay)	x1.01	x16.9
Italy (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/italy)	x1.04	x17.2
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x1.13	x6.45
Spain (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/spain)	x1.12	x5.29
France (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/france)	x1.06	x10.01
Portugal (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/portugal)	x1.01	x17.2
Belgium (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/belgium)	x1.01	x15.4
Holland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/holland)	x1.05	x10.4
England (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/england)	x1.01	x16.1
Colombia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/colombia)		x23.3

If you want to bet X Bitcoins on a contract, you can find instructions here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1566010-i-want-to-bet-x-bitcoins-on-a-contract-how-does-it-work).

Group Stage matches (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
USA to win against Portugal (Group G) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/usa-wins-vs-portugal-groupG)	x1.06	x1.96
Colombia to win against Ivory Coast (Group C) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/colombia-wins-vs-ivory-coast-groupC)	x2.3	x1.59
Uruguay to win against England (Group D) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/uruguay-wins-vs-england-groupD)	x1.57	x2.33
Japan to win against Greece (Group C) (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-group-stage-2014/japan-wins-vs-greece-groupC)	x2.25	x1.61

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Italy (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/italy)	x1.04	x12.3
USA (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/usa)	x1	x35.7
Brazil (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/brazil)	x1.22	x4.05
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.18	x4.57
Uruguay (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/uruguay)		x30.3
Italy (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/italy)	x1.04	x17.2
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x1.25	x4.35
Spain (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/spain)		x27
France (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/france)	x1.03	x12
Portugal (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/portugal)	x1.01	x17.2
Belgium (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/belgium)	x1.01	x15.4
Holland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/holland)	x1.05	x9.8
England (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/england)	x1.01	x23.3
Colombia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/colombia)		x20

If you want to bet X Bitcoins on a contract, you can find instructions here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1566010-i-want-to-bet-x-bitcoins-on-a-contract-how-does-it-work).

Full Updated Odds:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Italy (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/italy)	x1.04	x12.3
USA (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/usa)	x1	x35.7
Brazil (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/brazil)	x1.22	x4.05
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.18	x4.57
Australia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/australia)		x2.92
Chile (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/chile)	x1.01	x16.7
Italy (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/italy)	x1.04	x17.2
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x1.25	x4.35
France (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/france)	x1.03	x12
Portugal (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/portugal)		x23.3
Belgium (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/belgium)	x1.01	x15.9
Holland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/holland)	x1.05	x9.8
England (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/england)	x1.01	x23.3
Colombia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/colombia)		x20
Costa Rica (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/costa-rica)		x20
Uruguay (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/uruguay)		x28.6
Japan (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/japan)		x37
Bosnia-Herzegovina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/bosnia-herzegovina)		x31.3
Croatia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/croatia)		x31.3
Ecuador (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/ecuador)		x38.5
Nigeria (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/nigeria)		x38.5
Ivory Coast (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/ivory-coast)		x30.3
Ghana (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/ghana)		x38.5
Switzerland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/switzerland)		x32.3
Russia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/russia)		x34.5

looking to learn how this works.. can you tell me why there's such a large discrepancy between sell orders and buy orders? in every event, the sell is always less than the buy.. seems like people don't want to sell their shares.

If buy was lower than sell, anyone could buy immediately and re-sell for a risk-free profit. You cannot have the buy price lower than the sell price as we would match the lowest buyer with the highest seller and create a transaction so the order would disappear immediately.

Here are examples on how Predictious work:
Buying: Let’s say you are buying a long share at 4 mB. You are paying immediately 4 mB to buy the share. If your bet is correct, you receive 10 mB, so your profit is 6 mB. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, your loss is 4 mB.
Selling: Now, let’s say you are buying short shares (selling at 4 mB per share). You are receiving 4 mB per share since you are selling, but we’ll take a 10 mB deposit per share in case you lose your bet. So you are effectively paying 6 mB per share to short sell at 4 mB. Then if you win your bet, you’ll get back your 10 mB deposit, so you will have made a 4 mB per share profit. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, you will not get the deposit back, so you will have lost 6 mB.

You can find more details about this here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/topics/532719-trading-on-predictious/articles).

Don't hesitate if anything is still unclear.

well, i'm saying buy should be less than sell. all i'm saying is that there is a significant margin to sell, so it's discouraged. for example, hilary clinton to win presidency is 4.14 for buy, and 3.38 for sell. that's something like a 20% difference.other events are almost 2:1 ratio buy:sell.

on top of that, i'm a little hesitant to make a bet for the 2016 elections.. that's 2 1/2 years away and you guys are a relatively new startup.

Ok got you. For the elections, note that you don't need to wait 2.5 years to re-sell your shares, you can re-sell whenever you want and lock profit earlier.

FIFA Worldcup Round of 16 games (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-world-cup-round-of-16-2014) now on Predictious.

i don't think you get it.. of course i know you can sell your shares. but the the parity between the buy and sell are so much that you're better off just holding it until it expires.

right now, it's 1.43 for rand paul to win US presidential election 2016.. and sell is at .7. let's say his odds get better and reach 2.00.. well, if the sell holds at that rate, i'd only get 1.00 from a sell. i will have paid 1.43 and received 1.00.. even though his odds have increased.

why is there such a big gap? are there not enough users to create for the market corrections?

I think the spreads will get tighter as we get closer to the election.  As you said, the election is still over 2 years away and there will be more interest in it as time goes on.  You could put up a bid or offer for an amount in between what is available and it might get filled.  For example:  Buy Rand Paul at 0.99.

That's part of the reason.

Another part is the fees. Liquidity rebates sure would help.

A volume based discount might work.  If you trade x shares per month you get a percentage discount on the fees.

Updated Odds for the FIFA Worldcup:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Brazil (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/brazil)	x1.29	x2.86
France (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/france)	x1.08	x8.33
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x1.18	x4.88
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.18	x4.88
USA (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/usa)	x1.01	x35.7
Costa Rica (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/costa-rica)	x1.01	x41.7
Belgium (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/belgium)	x1.01	x25.6
Holland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/holland)	x1.1	x7.19
Mexico (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/italy)		x26.3

Updated Odds for the FIFA Worldcup:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Brazil (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/brazil)	x1.33	x2.86
France (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/france)	x1.10	x6.45
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x1.22	x4.76
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.18	x5.68
USA (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/usa)	x1.01	x35.7
Colombia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/colombia)	x1.06	x11.1
Belgium (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/belgium)		x25.6
Holland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/holland)	x1.14	x5.59
Switzerland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/switzerland)	x1.00	x34.5

Updated Odds for the FIFA Worldcup:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Brazil (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/brazil)	x1.33	x2.99
France (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/france)	x1.07	x5.92
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x1.18	x5.43
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.18	x4.88
Colombia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/colombia)	x1.06	x12.5
Belgium (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/belgium)	x1.00	x15.4
Holland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/holland)	x1.14	x4.78
Costa Rica (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/costa-rica)		x18.9

the 2014 election shares are up, and there's still a big disparity between buy and sell. i too am thinking that with more volume, the gap between buy and sell will close. but as it stands, there is no point in buying and not letting your shares expire.

Updated Odds for the FIFA Worldcup:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x2.11	x1.73
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.34	x3.66
Holland (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/holland)	x1.21	x4.52

FIFA Worldcup H-4

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner) market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Germany (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/germany)	x2.7	x1.5
Argentina (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fifa-2014-world-cup-winner/argentina)	x1.45	x2.7

We have now added new contracts on Predictious on the amount that the '5oz MaxCoin Silver Cryptobullion' Crowd-founding project will raise. You will find these ranges: more than $10,000; $30,000; $40,000; $100,000. You can find these contracts here (https://www.predictious.com/science-tech/5oz-maxcoin-silver-cryptobullion).

For reference, the similar project 1oz MaxCoin Silver Cryptobullion (https://www.startjoin.com/maxcoinsilver) raised $111,699. Note that this 5oz maxcoin silver cryptobullion (https://www.startjoin.com/5ozsilvercrypto) is only at the concept stage for now. Predictious will take the actual amount raised when it upgrades to a real StartJOIN project.

Will Tiger Woods hold 14, 15 or 16 majors by end of 2014? British Open starting tomorrow, place your predictions!

• Tiger Woods to hold exactly 15 majors by end of 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/tiger-woods-major-championships-wins/15-majors)
• Tiger Woods to hold exactly 16 majors by end of 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/tiger-woods-major-championships-wins/16-majors)

The Emmy Awards are now on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/), we've added the following contracts:

• Emmys Lead Actor Drama 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-lead-actor-drama-2014)
• Emmys Lead Actress Drama 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-lead-actress-drama-2014)
• Emmys Outstanding Drama 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-outstanding-drama-2014)
• Emmys Outstanding Comedy 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-outstanding-comedy-2014)

Let us know if you'd like to see other Emmy's categories.

New market (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-august-8-2014) on the price of Bitcoin on August 8th (will the price be more than $550, 575, 600, 625, 650, 700?)

New contract on whether the next Keiser Report with guest Frankie Boyle will be censored in the UK. (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/keiser-report-frankie-boyle-censored-in-uk-2014/censored)

The US Open Tennis (https://www.predictious.com/sports/us-open-tennis-2014) market is now up and running!

Reminder that it's only 2 weeks before the Pro Football Hall of Fame game (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2014-preseason/buffalo-bills-win-vs-new-york-giants-2014-08-04), opening the NFL Preseason. Place your bitcoin on the Buffalo Bills or New York Giants!

Here are the odds on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016) for the 2016 US presidential elections:

Candidate	Lay	Back
Hillary Clinton (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/hillary-clinton)	x1.52	x2.38
Jeb Bush (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/jeb-bush)	x1.04	x16.7
Rand Paul (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/rand-paul)	x1.08	x8.33
Chris Christie (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/chris-christie)	x1.06	x9.62
Marco Rubio (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/marco-rubio)	x1.05	x10.8
Ted Cruz (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/ted-cruz)	x1.03	x18.2
Elizabeth Warren (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/elizabeth-warren)		x18.2
Rob Portman (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/rob-portman)	x1.01	x18.2
Scott Walker (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/scott-walker)	x1.01	x9.71
Paul Ryan (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/paul-ryan)	x1.04	x8.2
Mike Huckabee (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/mike-huckabee)		x2.56
Mitt Romney (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/mitt-romney)	x1.02	x2.82
Joe Biden (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/joe-biden)	x1.01	x3.25
Andrew Cuomo (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/andrew-cuomo)	x1.01	x2.56

Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2014-preseason/buffalo-bills-win-vs-new-york-giants-2014-08-04) the Hall Of Fame game is only in 6 days, who are you placing your bitcoins on?

Contract	Lay	Back
Buffalo Bills to win	x2.08	x1.70
New York Giants to win	x1.70	x2.08

on Buffalo Bills  :)

New market on the price of bitcoin on August 22nd (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-august-22-2014)!

New market on the price of bitcoin on August 29th (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-august-29-2014).

Popular contracts this week:

• Scottish independence referendum results to be for the independence (https://www.predictious.com/politics/scottish-independence-referendum/yes)
• Breaking Bad to win 66th Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-outstanding-drama-2014/breaking-bad)
• Woman to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016-gender/woman)
• Price of Dogecoin end of 2014 to be more than 0.001 mBTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-dogecoin-2014-end/more-than-0-001btc)

Here are all the major sport contracts on Predictious at the moment:

• NFL 2014 Preseason (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2014-preseason)
• NFL 2014 Regular Season (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2014-regular-season)
• US Open Tennis 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/us-open-tennis-2014)
• Davis Cup 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/davis-cup-2014)
• FIBA Worldcup 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/fiba-worldcup-2014)
• Super Bowl XLIX 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-super-bowl)
• MLB World Series 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/mlb-world-series-2014)
• UEFA Champions League Final 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/uefa-champions-league-final-2015)
• Formula One World Driver 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/formula-one-world-driver-2014)
• MotoGP 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/motogp-2014)
• 2015 Cricket World Cup Winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-cricket-world-cup-winner)

If you like Predictious (https://www.predictious.com) and want to see more liquidities, we would really appreciate if you could vote for us on this Bitcointalk thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=717790.80), thanks for your help!

Bitcoin price is dropping, time to short on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-august-29-2014)!

The NFL Pre Season (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2014-preseason) is on Predictious.

We've added these 2 new contracts:

• Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $650 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-2014-end/more-than-650usd)
• Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $700 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-2014-end/more-than-700usd)

What will be the price of Bitcoin on September 5th? Still bearish? Place your predictions now (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-september-5-2014)!

8 days remaining before the Emmys 2014: Place your predictions (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-lead-actor-drama-2014) on your favourite actor, actress, drama serie, comedy serie!

Here are the hot bets for this week:

• US Open Tennis 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/us-open-tennis-2014)
• Emmys Outstanding Drama 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-outstanding-drama-2014)

New contracts on Predictious:
What will be the price of Bitcoin on October 10th? (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-october-10-2014)

The NFL Regular Season only starts in 5 days, Predictious has all the games, you can find them here (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2014-regular-season).

Most popular contract on Predictious this week:

• Price of Bitcoin September 5th to be more than $500 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-september-5-2014/500-usd)

Current odds:
Lay: x1.37
Back: x1.73

Did you know you could bet on the Scottish independence referendum results (https://www.predictious.com/politics/scottish-independence-referendum/yes)?

New contracts on Preditious:

• Sex of Kate & William 2nd baby (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/sex-of-kate-william-2nd-baby)
• NFL Regular Seasons Games (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2014-regular-season)

Popular contracts this week on Predictious:

• Scottish independence referendum results to be for the independence (https://www.predictious.com/politics/scottish-independence-referendum/yes)
• Half-Life 3 to be released in 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/half-life-3-2014/released)
• Price of Bitcoin September 30th to be more than $400 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-september-30-2014/400-usd)

New contract on Predictious:

• The U.S. Supreme Court to allow gay marriage in all states by end of 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/gay-marriage-us-2015/yes)

New contracts on Predictious:

• Florida Governor (https://www.predictious.com/politics/florida-gubernatorial-2014)
• Michigan Governor (https://www.predictious.com/politics/michigan-gubernatorial-2014)
• Nebraska Governor (https://www.predictious.com/politics/nebraska-gubernatorial-2014)
• Alaska Senate Race 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/alaska-senate-race-2014)
• Colorado Senate Race 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/colorado-senate-race-2014)
• Georgia Senate Race 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/georgia-senate-race-2014)
• Iowa Senate Race 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/iowa-senate-race-2014)
• Kansas Senate Race 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/kansas-senate-race-2014)
• Louisiana Senate Race (https://www.predictious.com/politics/louisiana-senate-race-2014)
• North Carolina Senate Race 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/north-carolina-senate-race-2014)

Some new markets on Predictious:

• Real Madrid vs FC Barcelona (https://www.predictious.com/sports/real-madrid-vs-barcelona-october-25-2014)
• St Petersburg Bitcoin Ball (https://www.predictious.com/sports/st-petersburg-bitcoin-ball-2014)

Some hot markets:

• The Republicans to control the Senate after 2014 Congressional Elections (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-senate-elections-2014/republicans)
• David Perdue to win the Senate election in Georgia (https://www.predictious.com/politics/georgia-senate-race-2014/david-perdue)
• Michelle Nunn to win the Senate election in Georgia (https://www.predictious.com/politics/georgia-senate-race-2014/michelle-nunn)
• Price of Bitcoin October 31st to be more than $400 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-october-31-2014)

The Euro 2016 qualifiers games (https://www.predictious.com/sports/euro-2016-qualifiers) are on Predictious.

Euro 2016 qualifiers starting tomorrow, still time to place your predictions (https://www.predictious.com/sports/euro-2016-qualifiers)!

Wish I had known about this site before the US election last week.

What is your volume like on this site for non-sports predictions?

Well, you can still take part in the Presidential :)

You can see the volume of resolved political contracts here (https://www.predictious.com/politics?expired=True).

For example on the following contract "The Republicans to control the Senate after 2014 Congressional Elections" the total volume was 1602 shares (so 16 bitcoins got traded).

I had a blast on Intrade during the 2012 US elections. I was worried that after those elections were complete there would be no remaining active markets in which I could participate (I don't enjoy sports predictions). However, I found a new home in box office predictions. At least, until Intrade went the way of the dodo.

They would typically choose popular films set to premier in the upcoming months and set markets for their premiering weekend box office sales. An example for last weekend could have been:

• Interstellar to earn over $40,000,000 during it's opening weekend
• Interstellar to earn over $45,000,000 during it's opening weekend
• Interstellar to earn over $50,000,000 during it's opening weekend

I hope you'll consider adding markets like these. Also, a formal place on the website to suggest new markets would be nice. I have tons of ideas (which you may or may not be interested in reading).

edit: They used http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ as their official measure of what a film earned

How do refund rate determined?

Please send us your ideas! You can contact us through here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/emails/new).

Last year when we launched we did try to add opening weekend box office earnings, but these weren't that popular. We will however give it another try and see how it goes.

New event: Chicago Mayoral elections (https://www.predictious.com/politics/chicago-mayoral-election-2015)

Thanks for posting the Louisiana House of Representatives runoff election. Wish I had started Predictious before Nov 4th so I could have taken part in the entire election.

Going to free up some funds and put up some predictions soon.

What is the volume to this site? The way I see it, is if there aren't enough bets on both sides then everybody loses

Cool site..

I have a lot of sites that I want to join right now.

Some markets are more popular than other.

Here are our most popular markets of the week:

• Rand Paul to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/rand-paul)
• Hillary Clinton to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/hillary-clinton)
• New England Patriots to be the 2015 Super Bowl winning team (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-super-bowl/new-england-patriots)
• NFL 2014 Regular Season (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2014-regular-season)
• Silver to be more than $21/oz at 2014 end (https://www.predictious.com/economics/silver-price-at-2014-end/21-usd)
• Bitcoin price to reach $2000 in 2014 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2014/2000)

Thank you :)

Cool! Is there a place on the site to see a list of active markets like this?

What about your available funds that's aren't tied up in open orders? (If you have open orders, the balance in the upper-right doesn't tell you how many shares you can buy right away without cancelling other orders)

I don't see any difference between sorting the events by "popular" and "volume".
How are the events sorted by "popular"?

Hello,

Refer to odds, if the "long" odds on the odds 5.00 can I buy and put it 1.00

Since it can be decide by me, then most will like to put 1.00, by doing this I will
earn 9.00 (10.00 - 1.00) if the event occur.
I understand also if I put 1.00 I need to wait for "match" from other side.

Just curious,
Thanks

It works very similarly to Intrade, just different currency/amounts.

If you put up 1 mBTC long, someone else must put up 9 mBTC short. Or 2 & 8, 2.5 & 7.5, etc.

For any matched bet, there is 10 mBTC between both sides combined. Whoever is correct takes the pot (minus a small fee).


It took me a while to get accustomed to the Intrade/Predictious method, but once you're used to it, you'll be comfortable not only buying shares, but also selling matched (long or short) shares when the odds improve.

Thanks notlogic
I means is the "odds"
let say the odds now is 4.50 for "long"
when I go in, can I put it become 1.00
because I will start from 1.00 odds to 10.00 if I win.
10.00 - 1.00 = 9.00 I win, rather than I continue use other "offer" 4.50
(10.00 - 4.50 = 5.50) I only win 5.50
or maybe I need to open new trade for starting this 1.00 odds?

I believe you can offer to buy or sell a market at any price, but the best price will be what people see.

If you view a market and click "Market Depth" you can all the unmatched orders with less-favorable odds than the primary displayed odds.

Popular is based on the last 7 days only.

New contract on Predictious:

• The Hobbit Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/the-hobbit-the-battle-of-the-five-armies-weekend-gross)

Hi Notlogic,

Is the "the best price will be what people see" is "matched"?
How do I checked my wager is been "matched" or "not yet been matched"?
Example in fairlay.com it can indicate "matched" and "not yet matched"
Please help
Thanks

If you see a price (buy or sell), it is matched.

Once you place an order, if it is NOT matched, you will see a link at the top of the screen saying "# Open Orders"

Matched shares will be listed at the top of the screen saying "# Shares"

Thanks,

Is there anyway I can detect which one "long" odds I can match it?
I don't want wait to be match, I want wage/ match on those "long" share

Thanks again :)

Just look at "Market Depth" in any market. You'll see exactly how many long and short shares are funded, and at what levels.

New events on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/):

• 2014/15 AFC Winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2014-15-afc-winner)
• 2014/15 NFC Winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2014-15-nfc-winner)

We're pleased to announce that we're adding all NCAFF Bowls on Predictious, you can already start betting on the following:

• R+L Carriers New Orleans (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/r-plus-l-carriers-new-orleans-bowl-nevada-wolf-pac)
• Gildan New Mexico (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/gildan-new-mexico-bowl-utah-state-aggie)
• Royal Purple Las Vegas (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/royal-purple-las-vegas-bowl-utah-ute)
• Famous Idaho Potato (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/famous-idaho-potato-bowl-western-michigan-bronco)
• Raycom Media Camellia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/raycom-media-camellia-bowl-south-alabama-jaguar)
• Miami Beach (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/miami-beach-bowl-byu-cougar)
• Boca Raton (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/boca-raton-bowl-northern-illinois-huskie)
• San Diego County CU Poinsettia (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/san-diego-county-cu-poinsettia-bowl-navy-midshipme)
• Popeyes Bahamas (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/popeyes-bahamas-bowl-central-michigan-chippewa)
• Sheraton Hawaii (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/sheraton-hawaii-bowl-fresno-state-bulldog)
• Zaxby's Heart of Dallas (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/zaxby's-heart-of-dallas-bowl-illinois-fighting-illin)
• Quick Lane (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-football-bowls-2014-15/quick-lane-bowl-rutgers-scarlet-knight)

Are we going to get Oscars betting? That seemed to be quite popular last year and it's getting to be that time of year.

It also looks like the economics section is a little bare. I did feel that it was overkill with markets for the price of bitcoin after each week - or mining difficulty after each adjustment - but having none of those markets at all seems like the opposite extreme. I'd like to see markets for bitcoin price and difficulty that expire on a monthly or quarterly basis. Could also have similar for silver or gold prices but those didn't seem to be quite as popular.

Here are the new events for the Economics category:

• Price of Bitcoin on January 15th 10pm UTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-january-15-2015)
• Price of Bitcoin on January 31st 10pm UTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-january-31-2015)
• Bitcoin all time high 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2015)
• Price of Bitcoin 2015 end (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-2015-end)
• Bitcoin Minimum 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-minimum-2015)

We will be adding the Oscars when the nominees are announced.

We've actually added the Oscar for Best picture contract based on projected nominees:

• Oscars 2015 Best Picture (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/oscars-2015-best-picture)

Excellent, thanks!

New markets on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/):

• Jurassic World Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/jurassic-world-weekend-gross)
• Avengers: Age of Ultron Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/avengers-age-of-ultron-weekend-gross)
• Fifty Shades of Grey Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/fifty-shades-of-grey-weekend-gross)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/star-wars-the-force-awakens-weekend-gross)
• The Fantastic Four Weekend Gross (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/the-fantastic-four-weekend-gross/more-than-50-million)
• 2015 NCAAF Championship (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-ncaaf-championship)
• 2015 NBA All-Star Game (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-nba-all-star-game)
• NCAA Men's Basketball Div 1 Championship 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-men-basketball-div-1-championship-2015)

Happy New Year and Happy Predicting!

Same to you a very happy year and thanks for such a nice site. Definitely would like to place some bets and try this amazing site too.

If you guys have money on Bitstamp, you might consider insuring yourself by buying shares of this new contract:

• Bitstamp to start operating again before Monday, January 12th (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitstamp-insolvency-2015/before-monday-january-12)

Is there a bet for when withdrawals for this site will be back online?

Have tried to withdraw 3 times now every time getting an error followed by having to send an email to support and waiting over 2 days before having access to those funds again, followed by another failed attempt and 2 days wait

HiNlogic

i got this screeen
https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-january-15-2015/300-usd

How to see which one match which one?

SELL AT 1.24
Sum    Size    Bid
15    15    m฿ 1.24


BUY AT 3.38
Ask    Size    Sum
m฿ 3.38    10    10
m฿ 3.39    15    25
m฿ 3.51    15    40
m฿ 9.51    15    55
m฿ 9.70    10    65

Thanks

How about email notifications when a trade occurs on a user's account?

Occasionally some withdrawals are experiencing delays. We're working to fix that permanently.

Thanks for the suggestion, we'll look into that.

The open orders are not yet matched. If one of your order gets matched, you will see the details in your transaction history (https://www.predictious.com/account/transactions).

It's not just withdrawal delays , its a complete broken withdrawal function, it isn't delayed, it says error and then your funds are no where to be seen, and no record of where they actually are, it deducts your account, without showing any details about what has happened .

Yes we know about this, we are currently testing the permanent fix and it should be live in the next few days.

New contracts on Predictious:

• Silver Price at 2015 end (https://www.predictious.com/economics/silver-price-at-2015-end)
• Gold Price at 2015 end (https://www.predictious.com/economics/gold-price-at-2015-end)
• Bitcoin network difficulty block 340704 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-network-difficulty-block-340704)
• Greece to leave euro zone (https://www.predictious.com/politics/greece-to-leave-euro-zone)
• US Unemployment rate February 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-unemployment-rate-february-2015)
• US Gas Price March 2nd (https://www.predictious.com/economics/us-gas-price-march-2nd-2015)

Reminder: only 1 day left to predict the outcome of the NCAAF Championship (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-ncaaf-championship)!

Hi

I do not want to waiting to be match.
How to read your menu to spot "ready to match"  amount.?
Means ,  once I wager on it, my wager will be match

Thanks

In that case you need to check for contracts which display a buy or sell price, such as here: https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-2015-end/more-than-1000usd
Whenever you see a given asked price it means someone else is ready to sell you share for that displayed price.
Hope this helps?

The issue with withdrawals and deposits is now resolved.

We also wanted to let you know that we've decreased the withdrawal miners fees from 0.0005BTC to 0.0001BTC.

Dear Sirs.

Thanks

Then how to read this SELL and BUY contract transaction show  in "market depth"?

Many friends unable to read even it is seems transparent.

Hope you can teach us


Sum    Size    Bid
20    20    m฿ 0.90
60    40    m฿ 0.85
150    90    m฿ 0.79
350    200    m฿ 0.50
380    30    m฿ 0.30
480    100    m฿ 0.25
595    115    m฿ 0.05
795    200    m฿ 0.03
845    50    m฿ 0.01

Ask    Size    Sum
m฿ 0.99    5    5
m฿ 1.00    20    25
m฿ 1.62    15    40
m฿ 1.76    15    55
m฿ 1.95    15    70
m฿ 2.00    15    85
m฿ 2.55    15    100
m฿ 3.53    15    115
m฿ 5.30    15    130
m฿ 8.16    15    145
m฿ 8.66    15    160
m฿ 9.50    10    170
m฿ 9.83    15    185

This article explains what is the market depth tab: https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1483072-what-is-the-market-depth-tab-

To take your example:
Bid: Here it means that you can sell 20 shares at m฿ 0.90 each; 40 shares at m฿ 0.85; 90 shares at m฿ 0.79, etc. (because some people are buying these for these prices). If you sell shares and the event doesn't happen, then you win the amount for which you sold the shares for (m฿0.9, m฿0.85, etc.).
Ask: Here it means that you can buy 5 shares at m฿ 0.99; 20 shares at m฿ 1.00; 15 shares at m฿ 1.62, etc. (because some people are selling these for these prices). If you buy these shares and the event happens, then you win m฿ 10 for each share you own.

This article explains this: https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1194954-how-do-i-earn-money-with-predictious-

Reminder that you can still make money with bitcoin by predicting the price on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/economics):

• Price of Bitcoin on January 15th (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-january-15-2015)
• Price of Bitcoin on January 31st (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-january-31-2015)
• Price of Bitcoin on February 15th (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-february-15-2015)
• Bitcoin Minimum 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-minimum-2015)
• Bitcoin all time high 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2015)

Some new markets on Predictious:

• Price of Bitcoin on February 28th (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-february-28-2015)
• Oscars 2015 Best Actor (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/oscars-2015-best-actor)
• Oscars 2015 Best Director (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/oscars-2015-best-director)
• Oscars 2015 Best Supporting Actor (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/oscars-2015-best-supporting-actor)

betting on the tv shows and movies is an interesting concept, will register if I find enough interesting bets

Great, and let us know if you have any contract suggestion!

New feature: you can now receive emails when your orders are matched. To enable this go to your account settings. (https://www.predictious.com/account/settings)

http://blog.predictious.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/predictious-emails.png

Hi Sirs,

Your mean of the display
bid (Sell) price same as ask (buy) price
then sure I got "match" if i enter the wager?

Thanks

Hi Sirs,

Another question

If bid (Sell) price got show 1.00 and ask (buy) price do not have 1.00
but have 1.50, so I buy (ask) 1.00 then I got "match"? :)


Thanks

If you try to buy at a price that is higher than the ask, then your order will be immediately match. You can see if your order is matched on the transaction page: https://www.predictious.com/account/transactions (https://www.predictious.com/account/transactions).

Dear Sirs,
So, if bid (Sell) price got show 1.00 and ask (buy) price also show 1.00 = means a match?

and
if bid (Sell) price got show 1.50 and ask (buy) price also show 1.00 = means a match

really?
Thanks

I'm not sure I understand your questions.

To buy shares you only need to look at the "buy price". To sell shares you only need to look at the "sell price". You don't want to be buying and selling shares of the same contracts. If you buy the contract it means you think the event will occur. If you sell the contract it means you think the event will not occur.

You can also read these articles:

• How do I earn money with Predictious? (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1194954-how-do-i-earn-money-with-predictious-)
• Why can I buy or sell more shares than are shown? (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1194996-why-can-i-buy-or-sell-more-shares-than-are-shown-)
• I want to bet X Bitcoins on a contract, how does it work? (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1566010-i-want-to-bet-x-bitcoins-on-a-contract-how-does-it-work-)

Dear Sirs,

Sorry for confusing you, actually I try to ask is how to read the market depth indicator like this :

if the market depth indicator read as below, is it means  I
will I get match once I buy/sell share? means I no need wait to be match


1)  if bid (Sell) price got show 1.00 and ask (buy) price also show 1.00 = means a match , no matter I buy 
      (ask) or sell (bid)
       (I only buy one side, either ask or bid) 

and

2)  if bid (Sell) price got show 1.50 and ask (buy) price also show 1.00 = means a match if I sell(bid)

I have read your manual, its fully explain everything, only I wish I can directly able to read if "match" will happen once I wager on it without waiting to be match. If wait to be match, maybe result at the end I will not get a match.
 
Thanks

Have you placed your bets yet on the Super Bowl winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-super-bowl)?

Here are the odds on Predictious:
Seattle Seahawks (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-super-bowl/seattle-seahawks) Lay:x1.89 Back:x1.85
New England Patriots (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2015-super-bowl/new-england-patriots) Lay:x1.85 Back:x1.92

I stil trying to understand it

if the market depth indicator read as below, is it means  I
will I get match once I buy/sell share? means I no need wait to be match


1)  if bid (Sell) price got show 1.00 and ask (buy) price also show 1.00 = means a match , no matter I buy
      (ask) or sell (bid)
       (I only buy one side, either ask or bid)

and

2)  if bid (Sell) price got show 1.50 and ask (buy) price also show 1.00 = means a match if I sell(bid)

I have read your manual, its fully explain everything, only I wish I can directly able to read if "match" will happen once I wager on it without waiting to be match. If wait to be match, maybe result at the end I will not get a match.
 
Thanks

1. You will never see the same price for the bid and ask, as the same price means a match, so if a match occurs you no longer see the open orders.

2. As long as you see a number (in either bid or ask) this means you can match it. So as long as you see something for bid or something for ask, you can match the order of someone and buy a share.

Hi there, I noticed on BitShares they are discussing prediction markets and Predictious came up.

Do you think Bitcoin's volatility could be a reason why Bitcoin based prediction markets haven't gained as much adoption as they could?

If so what are your initial thoughts on possibly trialling something like BitUSD by BitShares? (It maintains the value of USD.)

The events displayed on the front page are manually selected, right? I'm thinking it would be nice to display the most popular contracts and/or events across the entire site by volume, and perhaps some of the noteworthy events that are ending soonest.

Another feature I'd love to have at some point are e-mail notifications sent immediately upon a standing order being executed. Currently I get one e-mail a day listing executed orders, and while that's usually fine there are times when I'd want to know as soon as an order is taken. Even better would be the ability to select specific orders or contracts which trigger an automatic e-mail.

Some new hot contracts on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/)!

Sport:

• NBA Finals 2014-15 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nba-finals-2015)
• Men French Open 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/men-french-open-2015)
• Tour de France 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/tour-de-france-2015)
• UEFA Champions League Final 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/uefa-champions-league-final-2015)
• Kentucky Derby 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/kentucky-derby-2015)

Politics:

• UK Elections Most Seats (https://www.predictious.com/politics/uk-elections-2015-most-seats)
• Greece to leave euro zone (https://www.predictious.com/politics/greece-to-leave-euro-zone)
• Chicago mayoral election (https://www.predictious.com/politics/chicago-mayoral-election-2015)

Economics:

• Price of Bitcoin April 30th to be more than $300 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-april-30-2015/300-usd)
• Bitcoin price to reach $600 in 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2015/600)

and much more on Predictious.com (https://www.predictious.com/)

You're into Golf?

Make sure you place your predictions on time:

• US Open 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/us-golf-open-2015)
• Golf Masters 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/golf-masters-2015)

Only a few hours left for the Duke vs Badgers, make sure you place your prediction on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/sports/ncaa-men-basketball-div-1-championship-2015/duke-blue-devils)!

• Duke Blue Devils to win Lay: x1.89 ; Back: x1.91
• Wisconsin Badgers to win: Lay: x1.91 ; Back: x1.89

Accepting user-suggested prediction ? I would like to add prediction about Japan, such as Japan will be default of the national by 2050? I would like to see how the Japan is seen from bitcoiners in the world.

Yes we do accept suggestions as long as they meet our guidelines (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1195002). Can you clarify what you mean by "Japan will be default of the national by 2050"? Also it sounds like a very very long term prediction, so not sure if this would fit Predictious.

The Rick Santorum's contract (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-presidential-primaries-2016/rick-santorum) is getting very hot on Predictious!

Can Manny Pacquiao Beat Floyd Mayweather Jr.? Have your say on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/sports/floyd-mayweather-jr-vs-manny-pacquiao)!

I wanted to share some feedback for potential improvements to the site. I've e-mailed about these before but I'm not sure I got a firm response.

1) The volume stats on the site are consistently way off. Often times the all time volume will read X whereas my own trading activity may greatly exceed X for that contract. It would be nice to have accurate and more detailed volume statistics. Something like a historical volume chart (the way we have historical price) would be very helpful and informative. It would also be nice to know at any time the total number of outstanding shares for a given contract.

2) I believe Predictious is still calculating margin requirements on a per-ccontract basis for the most part. For example if I'm short 10 shares of Joe Shmoe to win the 2016 US Presidential Election, there shouldn't be any additional margin requirements for me to offer to go short 10 shares of a different candidate (lets say Jane Doe). Only one candidate can win the 2016 election, so only one of my short positions can result in a loss. Currently, it seems that margin requirements go up in this case. Optimizing the margin requirements calculations to that it results in the lowest margin requirements possible would be a big improvement,, and would allow users to make more predictions with less money. That's a win-win. I realize this introduces some complexity to the trading engine but I think it would be a greatly valuable feature.

I've enjoyed Predictious and I hope these suggestions are taken into account and that the site continues to grow and improve.

I agree that point #2 is a very important issue.  If you could resolve this I think volume on your site would double or more.  I personally would increase my volume quite a bit.

Yes I'd increase my volume and order sizes as well, particularly on markets where there will be exactly 1 winner out of a number of possibilities. That describes most of the most active contracts I think - Oscars, election winners, sport championship winners, etc... When trading relative longshots, lets say i'm selling a contract at 0.5 mɃ, it sucks to have to tie up 9.5 mɃ for potentially months at a time for a relatively small payout. This is even more extreme when it's 9.8 or 9.9 to win 0.2 or 0.1. I realize that margin requirements need to be enforced, but they should be minimized where possible.

Popular contracts this week:

• Golden State Warriors to win the 2015 NBA Finals (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nba-finals-2015/golden-state-warriors)
• Barcelona to win the 2015 UEFA Champions League Final (https://www.predictious.com/sports/uefa-champions-league-final-2015/barcelona)
• Condoleezza Rice to be the Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-presidential-primaries-2016/condoleezza-rice)
• Rand Paul to be the Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-presidential-primaries-2016/rand-paul)
• Price of Bitcoin May 31st to be more than $300 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-may-31-2015/300-usd)

There appear to be SEVERE problems now at Predictious. Has the site gone defunct? Is anyone able to successfully withdraw funds? A deposit made has not appeared in my account for over 16 hours, with over 60 confirmations. I am afraid that I foolishly lost my small investment and Predictious has pulled a pathetic little Mt. Gox on anyone that still has BTC tied up in the site.

Please indicate if anyone is able to get their money back.

Hi Lord Varys,

as discussed over email your transaction has been delayed due to our API provider which is currently experiencing delays due to the high load on the Bitcoin network: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3cdhtx/holy_smokes_50000_unconfirmed_transactions_and/

We're still fully operational and have never had any negative report from any of our users. Even though we're a small team, we provide fast support, and do our best to keep our users happy.

As you can see from www.predictious.com (http://www.predictious.com), we're still adding events on a daily basis and have lots of users trading on the platform.

Please just be patient and rest assure that your deposit will be credited to your account.

Predictious, please explain what your Reddit link has to do with the issue? It is discussing lags in confirmations through the blockchain. My transaction has been confirmed over 100 times! It is not a Bitcoin issue, it is a bizarre Predictius issue that is unresolved. You have the Bitcoins, but my account remains uncredited. How does this qualify as "operational?" How long does it normally take after confirmation for Predictius to credit a deposit? How much longer will it take to withdraw?

I understand that there are many previously-satisfied Predictius users; just curious if any have successfully withdrawn funds recently. If I saw evidence anywhere on the Internet of a single one, I would shut up and "rest assured" that everything is OK.

I am experimenting with many different Bitcoin sites this week and have had no trouble creating accounts, depositing, or withdrawing from any of them except for Predictius.

I really like your site ;P

But I don't understand what means: BUY at 0.34
it means I lose money betting to that option?

Operational issues happen to every company, that doesn't make them automatically "defunct".

We have been operating for 2 years, and have never lost a cent of user's funds. From time to time, the API we use to process payments (Blockchain.info) experiences lags, and in that case, deposits can take up to 48 hours to be processed. You can verify this is the case here (https://twitter.com/Phil_8811/status/618543116954415104) or here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1048656.0), most likely caused by the current stress on the network.

If your deposit hasn't been credited in 48 hours, we'll refund you in full.

Thanks :)

It means if you think this outcome will happen, you can buy a share at 0.34 mBTC, and you will make 10 mBTC from that share if you are right (basically multiply your stake by 30).

I understand now  :)

And I read you can short or long,is that right? how can you if you are buying a share?

Is there any way that Big Brother or Battle Bots related bets couldn't be added to the site? I would certainly make bets on either of those two shows.

Hi Predictious. Over at Predictit.org, a USD based prediction market, they seem to be generating quite a bit of interest in propositions on the polling average for various key polls by certain dates. For example, Hillary Clinton to be polling over 60% (according to the average on realclearpolitics.com) by July 31st. Is this something you guys would consider as well?

Thanks for the great suggestion! We've now added the following contracts on primary polling numbers for the top Democratic and Republican candidates:

• Donald Trump primary polling to be 18% or more on August 31st 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/primary-polling/trump-more-than-18-percent-august-31-2015)
• Bernie Sanders primary polling to be 17% or more on August 31st 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/primary-polling/sanders-more-than-17-percent-august-31-2015)
• Joe Biden primary polling to be 11% or more on August 31st 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/primary-polling/biden-more-than-11-percent-august-31-2015)
• Scott Walker primary polling to be 12% or more on August 31st 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/primary-polling/walker-more-than-12-percent-august-31-2015)
• Hillary Clinton primary polling to be 60% or more on August 31st 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/primary-polling/clinton-more-than-60-percent-august-31-2015)
• Jeb Bush primary polling to be 14% or more on August 31st 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/primary-polling/bush-more-than-14-percent-august-31-2015)

New contracts on Predictious:

Politics (https://www.predictious.com/politics):

• Woman to be featured on $10 bill (https://www.predictious.com/politics/woman-10-bill)
• Primary polling percentage for top candidates on August 31st 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/primary-polling)
• Obama Gallup job approval (https://www.predictious.com/politics/obama-gallup-job-approval/more-than-45-percent-august-31-2015)
• Obamacare approval polling on August 31st 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/obamacare-approval)

Sport (https://www.predictious.com/sports):

• 2016 Super Bowl 50 winner (https://www.predictious.com/sports/2016-super-bowl)
• MLB World Series 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/mlb-world-series-2015)
• Rugby World Cup 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/rugby-world-cup-2015)
• Davis Cup 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/davis-cup-2015)
• US PGA 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/sports/us-pga-2015)

Boom! Thank you. I'll start putting orders out for these contracts over the next few days. One of the nice features of it is it's a way to bet on presidential politics without tying up bitcoin until 2016.

Why have I not seen this thread before? So different, what a cool idea. I've never seen another gambling/investment site like this before, very original & pioneering. I've just seen that you guys are offering the options of Euro 16 & Rugby World Cup. I'm going to fully educate myself on this procedure & then have a go. Thank you.

Thanks :) Let us know if you have questions!

Well thanks a lot for the suggestion, great idea. Just a note about the 2016 contracts, keep in mind you don't have to keep these shares until 2016, you can always sell earlier and lock profit early depending on how each candidate is trending!

You mean by selling earlier?

Very optimistic view, unfortunetly I don't see BTC wining space at all :(
But the OP idea is just great, will put some orders too,

How deep are the markets? Generally speaking. As a former Intrade user, I felt like there were millions of dollars locked up on there during the height of Mittens vs B-rock

Well these resolve sooner - the prez and nominee markets don't resolve until there's a winner.


Yeah it's a far cry from InTrade. I definitely wish there were more liquidity, but it is what it is given the current regulatory situation and bitcoin adoption. I tried to deposit into InTrade to bet on Obama back in the day since Romney was so overvalued, but I needed to send a check to Ireland which would've taken days. Much better with bitcoin.

Trending up this week on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/):

• John Kerry to be the Democratic nominee for the Presidency of the United States (https://www.predictious.com/politics/democratic-presidential-primaries-2016/john-kerry)
• Hillary Clinton to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/hillary-clinton)
• Louie (FX) to win the 67th Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-outstanding-comedy-2015/louie-fx)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens to earn more than $230 Million on release weekend (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/star-wars-the-force-awakens-weekend-gross/more-than-230-million)
• Bitcoin price to reach $500 in 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2015/500)

Happy predicting and let us know if you have new contract ideas!

You are not the only one this has stayed off my radar for over 2 years lol

Insult to injury I am in the gambling section more than any other section. It is a cool idea OP and I will be making a few predictions for sure, you have a nice selection for us to choose from.

Now I will have to think of a couple of predictions and will pm you to let you know see if you can use them.

Sounds good, thank you!

The NFL Regular Season (https://www.predictious.com/sports/nfl-2015-regular-season) has started, did you know you could predict the outcome of the main games and win bitcoins if you're correct?

Other popular contracts:

• Donald Trump to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/donald-trump)
• Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic nominee for the Presidency of the United States (https://www.predictious.com/politics/democratic-presidential-primaries-2016/bernie-sanders)
• Hillary Clinton to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/hillary-clinton)
• Price of Bitcoin September 15th to be more than $225 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-on-september-15/225-usd)
• Price of Bitcoin end of 2015 to be more than $400 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/price-of-bitcoin-2015-end/more-than-400usd)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens to earn more than $230 Million on release weekend (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/star-wars-the-force-awakens-weekend-gross/more-than-230-million)
• Louie (FX) to win the 67th Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/emmys-outstanding-comedy-2015/louie-fx)

In addition to the many political contracts on the 2016 elections, we have now started added caucuses and primaries:

• Iowa caucus Democrat (https://www.predictious.com/politics/iowa-caucus-democrat-2016)
• Iowa caucus Republican (https://www.predictious.com/politics/iowa-caucus-republican-2016)
• New Hampshire primary Democrat (https://www.predictious.com/politics/new-hampshire-primary-democrat-2016)
• New Hampshire primary Republican (https://www.predictious.com/politics/new-hampshire-primary-republican-2016)

Wow amazed you still around I remembered when you first opened up for business and you was offering 0.01 per prediction that was pretty cool.

Hello all!

With the bitcoin price going up ;D the bitcoin contracts (https://www.predictious.com/economics) are getting hot on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/)!
In addition to the price of bitcoin you can now predict the price of Ethereum at the end of the year. You can find this contract in our Economics (https://www.predictious.com/economics) section:

• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.002 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-002-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.0025 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-0025-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.003 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-003-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.0035 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-0035-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.004 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-004-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.0045 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-0045-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.005 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-005-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.0055 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-0055-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.006 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-006-btc)
• Price of ETH end of 2015 to be more than 0.0065 BTC (https://www.predictious.com/economics/ethereum-price-end-of-year-2015/more-than-0-0065-btc)

Also don't forget we have lots of political events, such as:

• New Hampshire primary/url] (https://www.predictious.com/politics/new-hampshire-primary-democrat-2016)
• Iowa caucus (https://www.predictious.com/politics/iowa-caucus-republican-2016)
• Republican Presidential Primaries 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-presidential-primaries-2016)
• Democratic Presidential Primaries 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/democratic-presidential-primaries-2016)
• US Presidential Election 2016 Winner (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016)
• Joe Biden to run for President in 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/candidates/biden-runs)

With the bitcoin high of 2015 reached last week we have now added the following contract:
Bitcoin price to reach $550 in 2015 (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2015/550)

This week the most popular on Predictious is Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-presidential-primaries-2016/donald-trump)! Sell shares at mBTC2 per share, buy at mBTC2.99 (or x1.23 Lay; x3.24 Back).

New US elections contracts on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/politics):

• Nevada caucus Democrat 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/nevada-caucus-democrat-2016)
• Nevada caucus Republican 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/nevada-caucus-republican-2016)
• South Carolina primary Democrat (https://www.predictious.com/politics/south-carolina-primary-democrat-2016)
• South Carolina primary Republican (https://www.predictious.com/politics/south-carolina-primary-republican-2016)

And of course we also have these popular ones:

• Iowa caucus Democrat (https://www.predictious.com/politics/iowa-caucus-democrat-2016)
• Iowa caucus Republican (https://www.predictious.com/politics/iowa-caucus-republican-2016)
• New Hampshire primary Democrat (https://www.predictious.com/politics/new-hampshire-primary-democrat-2016)
• New Hampshire primary Republican (https://www.predictious.com/politics/new-hampshire-primary-republican-2016)
• US Presidential Election 2016 Winner (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016)
• US Presidential Election 2016 Gender (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016-gender)
• US Presidential Election 2016 Party (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016-winner-party)
• Republican Presidential Primaries 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-presidential-primaries-2016)
• Democratic Presidential Primaries 20166 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/democratic-presidential-primaries-2016)

Happy predicting!

With Super Tuesday in just 1 month we've added a few new political contracts:

• Bernie Sanders Super Tuesday (https://www.predictious.com/politics/bernie-sanders-super-tuesday-2016)
• Donald Trump Super Tuesday (https://www.predictious.com/politics/donald-trump-super-tuesday-2016)
• Hillary Clinton Super Tuesday (https://www.predictious.com/politics/hillary-clinton-super-tuesday-2016)

Reminder that we have lots of political contracts on Predictious, including:

• Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-presidential-primaries-2016/donald-trump)
• Hillary Clinton to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/hillary-clinton)
• Ted Cruz to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/ted-cruz)
• Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic nominee for the Presidency of the United States (https://www.predictious.com/politics/democratic-presidential-primaries-2016/bernie-sanders)
• Hillary Clinton to be indicted in 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/hillary-clinton-indictment/2016)
• Merrick Garland to be confirmed as Justice of the Supreme Court before November 9th 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/merrick-garland-supreme-court/before-november-9-th-2016)

Happy Predicting!

Political contracts are getting really hot these days, so we've decided to add a few more:

• US Senate elections 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/democrat-vice-president-2016)
• US House of Representatives elections (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-house-of-representatives-elections-2016)
• Democrat Vice President (https://www.predictious.com/politics/democrat-vice-president-2016)
• Republican Vice President (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-vice-president-2016)

Happy Predicting everyone!!

Just a week before the election, time to place your bitcoins on Hillary vs Trump!! A lot of volume on Predictious, don't miss this opportunity!

• Donald Trump to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/donald-trump)
• Hillary Clinton to win US Presidential Election 2016 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/hillary-clinton)

Surprised I didn't spot this website before. So the way it works is that if I buy Hillary Shares at 6.27 and if she wins, I get 10 BTC? If she loses I get nothing 0BTC. With Trump its similar but priced around 3 BTC. If he wins I get 10 BTC, if he loses I get 0.

Just wondering why the odds are very low for Hilary compared to the other betting websites which clearly state she will be the winner.

Congrats to all Predictious  (https://www.predictious.com/)users who predicted right!! On the Trump contract only, there was a total of 105751 shares traded, or 1057 bitcoins traded!

Here is another chance to win bitcoin thanks to Trump:

• Trump to be successfully impeached before end of 2017 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/trump-impeached/before-end-of-2017)
• Trump to get funding to build wall before end of 2017 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/trump-building-a-wall/before-end-of-2017)

Happy Predicting :-)

Apologies for not seeing your questions before. You are correct, you buy shares at the prices offered by other Predictious users (or can offer other prices and hope they get matched) and then get mBTC10 per winning share.


Looks like Predictious users were better at predicting than on other sites ;)

I put money on the US presidential election and won when Trump won. Your website made an error when I tried to withdraw bitcoins, but it still deducted the amount from my Predictious account. So according to your website I have a zero balance. In reality, I should have about 550 mBTC - either in my predictious account or in my bitcoin wallet.

I have already emailed you twice through the form on your site. I wrote you immediately after trying to withdraw, heard nothing back, so emailed again 2 days later. It has been 2 days since my last email went unanswered, so I'm hoping you check this thread.

I know Predictious has been around for a long time, so I'm still hoping this is an honest mistake. Please check your email box or message me here.

Thanks for raising, yes we will follow up by email now! After the Presidential contract got resolved, many (lucky!) Predictious winners cashed out, and due to the high amount of withdrawals, some withdrawals didn't go through. We've reviewed all of them and are in the process of resolving all issues. Please rest assured your funds are safe.

I've sent in multiple emails re: withdrawal errors since 2 weeks ago. Please respond.

Same here. See my post a couple messages up. I still have heard nothing from them, and my account still erroneously says it's empty.

Sketchy. I cannot recommend this service because of this and will likely not be using them again, pending extraordinary rectification.

Fairlay provides great service and are super responsive. I can tell they really care about their business.

I'm happy to report Flavien and Predictious made everything great again. Thank you!!

They've made good by me, too. Credited my account, which I withdrew to my wallet.

Only problem is that they skimped on the fees so the transaction has been sitting unconfirmed for several hours now.

hey sir, What this site using bitcoin withdrawal instantly or manually?

congratulations for people which have to be a winner in the US election and selecting Trump as the new US president. i think all of you have make a big money from that. its sadly i don't be the one who make a bet on this, if not i can make money too like the winner.

At least you're not this broad

https://www.google.com/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3828255/amp/Barmy-brilliant-Brave-woman-bets-500-000-euros-Hillary-Clinton-win-presidential-race-political-wager.html?client=safari

Yeah, still unconfirmed for me. Is it possible this gets stuck in perpetuity?

Mine finally went through and confirmed. The network is very congested right now and you have to pay slightly higher fees to get things confirmed in a reasonable time. Since your transaction is already on the network, it will sit there until a miner picks it up. It will not get returned to the sender or anything like that.

This is a good site (https://bitcoinfees.21.co) that estimates how many blocks before a confirmation based on current network congestion and fees per byte.

Here's another cool chart (https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-size) that shows the size of the mempool. Mempool is basically all transactions on the network that are waiting to be mined into a block. Notice how just in the last few days it's gone from about 5-7 MB all the way up to 42 MB. Remember...max block size is 1 MB. So even if everyone stopped spending bitcoins right now, it would take over 40 blocks to clear out all the transactions that are waiting. Miners will leave low-fee transactions sit and include transactions with fees.

I didn't know any of this until I started asking around about my own stuck transaction (which is now unstuck).

Also, to be clear, even though it was a hassle to get my BTC back, Predictious has fulfilled their obligations to me at this point.

Is it possible to send an additional miner fee? This protocol is such a mess.

It's not possible at the moment, you will have to wait for the network to confirm.

::)

What if the tx never confirms? Still waiting...

Still stuck!!

Hello...  ::)

I withdrew a bit from Predictious today (fee taken was 0.0001 BTC) and first confimation came within a couple of minutes - Dec. 17, 6:50 AM EST

But if I'm already here posting, how about a few more contracts Mr./Mrs/Miss Predictious? Wish you wouldn't worry so much about getting the perfect photograph/picture to attach to the contracts, and worry more about putting contracts up - would be just as delighted to see them without pics!
How about some Golden Globe or Oscar contracts? Bitcoin futures for Jan/Feb/2017? Will Segwit be adopted? Individual contracts for NFL games? Upcoming elections (Germany, France, etc)? Thanks in advance!

Lucky! I've been waiting nearly a month now and my tx (for a few bits) is still pending.

Here is the Predictious wallet that they pay/receive from at Blockchain info.

https://blockchain.info/address/1PRED1CTkdhsLadh5D4xpv4XF3JYZmWJSk?offset=0&filter=6


 You can see all their transactions from this wallet here. I checked back 10 pages worth of transactions and couldn't find an unconfirmed one (You would see the words "Unconfirmed Transaction!" near the amount if it was unconfirmed).

Can you locate your transacation here? Are you sure you've checked the correct wallet?

Everything is good now.

Hey there,

Glad to know everything is good now, but what happened? This thread is very little active so you didn't get an answer here I guess.
But did it just fixed itself after 1 month? xD
I mean I know tx can take some time but that is a bit too long, did you get an answer on the site? Did they compensate the freaking 1 month delay???

Anykind of details on customer services is always nice ;)

Original withdrawal never confirmed, emailed them after a month, they manually restored my account balance, I got to make a withdrawal again and this time after a few hours the withdrawal went through.

So it's just that they're not active here and you took time before contacting them on other way?
It's not them who took a month to answer?
If that's the case I guess it's a rather good way to handle your problem. Just good to know that it's useless to come talking here and you have to contact them directly on the site. Thanks for the feedback :)

Not exactly. I emailed them within the month on the same support email thread and they never responded, possibly because it was marked as closed. I had to create a new support request before I was remedied. 

"Original withdrawal never confirmed, emailed them after a month, they manually restored my account balance, I got to make a withdrawal again and this time after a few hours the withdrawal went through. "




Glad to hear things worked out well for you.

I must say that this site having much attraction for the persons who are lucky in predictions, they can make much money from here, some of them having good knowledge of betting can also take full advantage of the site. I wish i will join this in few days when my payment released from one site.

Predictious, your wallet is having issues.

I tried to withdraw on March 5, and the transaction is showing as double spend


https://blockchain.info/tx/8912620da44f145d1da7fc5f6dbbcfa5434c0c88c9452ca3ededc0b0d2b00dd6


I saw other transactions from Predictious wallet in the same situation around the same time.

Please advise what to do next. (BTW, I have checked a couple of other blockchain explorers, and none recognize the transaction ID)


Edit: March 7, and blockchain.info reports "transaction has been pruned from blockchain.info site database".
Edit March 8 - Now blockchain.info only reports "transaction not found"
The bitcoin is not in my wallet, and it's not in my Predictious account.

What next?

Edit: March 8 - issue has been resolved, funds returned to my account.

If this happens to anyone else, I am not sure if the process is automatic or not, as I didn't hear back from anyone at Predictious. It could be just something that resolves itself automatically after 3 days, or it could be manual intervention by Predictious without them acknowledging that they did anything manual.

We have now added the US 2020 Presidential elections, more ways to get more BTC from your Bitcoin investment!

• Donald Trump to win US Presidential Election 2020 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-elections-2020/donald-trump)
• Mike Pence to win US Presidential Election 2020 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-elections-2020/mike-pence)
• Elizabeth Warren to win US Presidential Election 2020 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-elections-2020/elizabeth-warren)
• Michelle Obama to win US Presidential Election 2020 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-elections-2020/michelle-obama)

Here are some of the other Political contracts:

• Trump to be successfully impeached before end of 2017 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/trump-impeached/before-end-of-2017)
• Trump to get funding to build wall before end of 2017 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/trump-building-a-wall/before-end-of-2017)
• The United Kingdom to leave the European Union in 2016 or 2017 (https://www.predictious.com/politics/brexit-2017/leave)

Happy Predicting (https://www.predictious.com)!

What will be the 2017 all time high Bitcoin price for this year?! Take a prediction on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2017) to win more bitcoins!

Want to multiply your Bitcoins? Why don't you predict the Oscars 2018?

Predict the Best Picture 2018 Oscar on Predictious (https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/oscars-2018-best-picture)