Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins!

[FreeMoney]

...top 3 currency pairs       (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/)

*EURUSD
*USDJPY
*USDCHF

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added:
- EUR-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- GBP-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- Dow Jones Industrial Average close August 30th 2013
- Close price of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) on August 30th 2013
and we'll consider adding more.

Great. Now what you need are market makers. Nobody wants to trade a thin market and nobody wants large (or non-existent) bid-ask spreads. Normally the way to kick-start this a bit is by getting a few pro traders to create a market by entering multiple orders. This increases liquidity and makes trading more attractive.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp

Good market makers can generate a steady profit, just like good bookies. If you can attract a few of them to your site, you will ensure more liquidity and market depth, making it much more interesting for punters, and a much more efficient prediction market.

Either that... or get a dozen Beta-testers and give away a few BTC on the condition that they bet on every single statement.

As a trader who is very much fed up with the paperwork involved in traditional fx, options, equity trading platforms... I am very much looking forward to your success. If you can tap into the FX market, you could be huge.

Thanks for your feedback, we are working with a few people interested in doing market making for a few specific markets. We also have a Trading API for people who wants to become maket makers for Predictious.

Uh... the event date for all of these bets seems wrong:

https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/breaking-bad-season-finale

The Breaking Bad Season 5 Finale is not August 10th. That is merely when the Season 5 (second half) starts.

Yes, but in theory, the characters may die at any episode. People can't all watch it at the same time (as opposed to a sport event), and we don't want to favor people who can watch it "live".

One way to make this work better would be an optional "Cancel my offer at X time" which would allow people to make offers that would end before the next episode at which point they could re-evaluate if they wanted to and post a new offer. Those who do watch could have an exciting time making and revoking offers in real time during episodes. Same thing with sporting events and elections.

Markets like these will always favor those who can give more attention and study. I think providing tools to make it as simple as possible for people to express their money-backed-opinions is a reasonable goal.

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[Predictious]

One way to make this work better would be an optional "Cancel my offer at X time" which would allow people to make offers that would end before the next episode at which point they could re-evaluate if they wanted to and post a new offer. Those who do watch could have an exciting time making and revoking offers in real time during episodes. Same thing with sporting events and elections.

Markets like these will always favor those who can give more attention and study. I think providing tools to make it as simple as possible for people to express their money-backed-opinions is a reasonable goal.

Thanks, this is a good suggestion. We will look into that.

[Hfleer]

Hi,
I've seen similar sites and I just don't understand it well enough. Say I want to say YES for an item and it theres a green "BID" price and a red "sell" price, which would I pick? I assume it would be the green one or something. And my payout would be 10? Its confusing to me. I wish they just said click here if you want yes, you pay this. Click here if you want no you pay this price. Payout is always 10mbtc. Please explain it for me, I apologize but would like to give your site a shot once I understand it better.

I don't like the way it reads either.  I would like it to say bid/ask(or maybe add this in parenthesis).  "Sell at"  is kind of strange for me.

[Hfleer]

Was just browsing the site, and notice the events weren't sorting by which ends soonest as they normally do.  I assumed it was intended for them to be sorted that way automatically as there's no option to chose what it sorts by yet.  If you do add that option I would think sort by ending, sort by most popular, sort by newest added would make good choices.

[Predictious]

I don't like the way it reads either.  I would like it to say bid/ask(or maybe add this in parenthesis).  "Sell at"  is kind of strange for me.

Thanks for the feedback. If that sounds strange, we might change it to simply "Bid" and "Ask".

Was just browsing the site, and notice the events weren't sorting by which ends soonest as they normally do.  I assumed it was intended for them to be sorted that way automatically as there's no option to chose what it sorts by yet.  If you do add that option I would think sort by ending, sort by most popular, sort by newest added would make good choices.

Yes, it is now sorted so that the smallest bid/ask spread are shown first. We might add a way to select how to order the contracts like you are suggesting.

[Hfleer]

Was just browsing the site, and notice the events weren't sorting by which ends soonest as they normally do.  I assumed it was intended for them to be sorted that way automatically as there's no option to chose what it sorts by yet.  If you do add that option I would think sort by ending, sort by most popular, sort by newest added would make good choices.

Yes, it is now sorted so that the smallest bid/ask spread are shown first. We might add a way to select how to order the contracts like you are suggesting.

Ok, wouldn't have thought of that.  Was nice sorted by ending soonest since I mostly bet on short term ones.

[hl5460]

Why not start network difficulty contract because there is a bunch of them already:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/CoinBr.iDiff-O

[Predictious]

Why not start network difficulty contract because there is a bunch of them already:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/CoinBr.iDiff-O

Thanks for the suggestion. We had a few contracts about the network difficulty already, but we will probably create a new one soon.

[Predictious]

Why not start network difficulty contract because there is a bunch of them already:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/CoinBr.iDiff-O

We've now added back a Bitcoin Network Difficulty contract.

[hl5460]

Why not start network difficulty contract because there is a bunch of them already:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/CoinBr.iDiff-O

We've now added back a Bitcoin Network Difficulty contract.

Quick action!
1. Have you considered the option of going public-owned so the risk could be shared among peers? like http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.BBET,  http://bitbet.us/. Trust me, it's going to catch lots of attention which is exactly what the website need.
2. Another question is that is peer allowed to create contract through some kind of review/approval mechanism?
3. Your website is mentioned in bitcoinmagazine: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/july-in-review/

At last, the website features lots of innovation. I have already promoted it in my twitter.
Keep on the good work.

[Financisto]

I've seen similar sites and I just don't understand it well enough. Say I want to say YES for an item and it theres a green "BID" price and a red "sell" price, which would I pick? I assume it would be the green one or something. And my payout would be 10? Its confusing to me. I wish they just said click here if you want yes, you pay this. Click here if you want no you pay this price. Payout is always 10mbtc. Please explain it for me, I apologize but would like to give your site a shot once I understand it better.

If you think an event will occur, you need to buy shares (the green button). The price indicated in the green button is the ask, at which you can immediately buy a share. If your prediction is correct, you will receive 10mBTC per share. So assuming you paid your shares 2 mBTC, you will make 8 mBTC profit per share (4:1 odds). You can also place a limit order to a price lower than the ask, and wait for the price to go down, if you think it will.
If you think an event will NOT occur, you can sell shares. You can sell even if you don't own a share, that's called short selling. In that case, you will own a short share. Short shares are redeemed at 10 mBTC if the event does NOT occur.

Maybe you may try to add some more sports betting oriented predictions and attract gamblers from that scene.

That would make Predictious to seem a little more like Betfair (P2P wagering) but would boost traffic. Players should add some daily sports prediction lines.

More flexible rules would be appreciated in order to add some sports betting oriented predictions: moneyline, spreads, totals (over/under), sports props, etc.

That may be an idea worth considering.

Cheers!

[Hfleer]

Why not start network difficulty contract because there is a bunch of them already:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/CoinBr.iDiff-O

We've now added back a Bitcoin Network Difficulty contract.

Quick action!
1. Have you considered the option of going public-owned so the risk could be shared among peers? like http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.BBET,  http://bitbet.us/. Trust me, it's going to catch lots of attention which is exactly what the website need.
2. Another question is that is peer allowed to create contract through some kind of review/approval mechanism?
3. Your website is mentioned in bitcoinmagazine: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/july-in-review/

At last, the website features lots of innovation. I have already promoted it in my twitter.
Keep on the good work.

1.Don't think they have risk unless they're market making.  
2.This is good, I think either bitbet or betsofbitcoin has this, and would help them get a feel for which events players would like to see.

As I watched some of the events I noticed some expire, bitcoin difficulty for example, without another one to take it's place for a while.  That makes it difficult to do continuation bet.  I hope the betting picks up, would like to see volume similar to Intrade eventually.

[Predictious]

As I watched some of the events I noticed some expire, bitcoin difficulty for example, without another one to take it's place for a while.  That makes it difficult to do continuation bet.  I hope the betting picks up, would like to see volume similar to Intrade eventually.

We have created a new event about the network difficulty for end of September. We plan to have more rolling contracts over time. We will soon have a weekly contract about the USD price of BTC.

[mjangler]

Maybe you should try putting up a contract for Monday Night's NFL game.  I'll put up some bid/asks if you do.

[Predictious]

Maybe you should try putting up a contract for Monday Night's NFL game.  I'll put up some bid/asks if you do.

Now added:

• Washington Redskins to win against Pittsburgh Steelers
• Pittsburgh Steelers to win against Washington Redskins

Let us know if there are other NFL games you want to see.

[Hfleer]

Maybe you should try putting up a contract for Monday Night's NFL game.  I'll put up some bid/asks if you do.

Now added:

• Washington Redskins to win against Pittsburgh Steelers
• Pittsburgh Steelers to win against Washington Redskins

Let us know if there are other NFL games you want to see.

Nice, I think the short term and popular events will bring more people.  Does this site work on smartphone?

[faiza1990]

sounds good I will try this in near future 

[Predictious]

New feature in Predictious: you can now order contracts by "Time left", "Newest Contracts" and "Market Spread".

[Predictious]

And we've now added price charts for each contract, for example check this page.

[Hfleer]

And we've now added price charts for each contract, for example check this page.

Looking good.  Coming along slowly(very slowly) but surely.