Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Economics => Topic started by: justusranvier on August 22, 2013, 08:14:17 PM



Title: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: justusranvier on August 22, 2013, 08:14:17 PM
Nails it.

http://themisescircle.org/blog/2013/08/22/the-problem-with-altcoins/


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on August 22, 2013, 09:00:41 PM
Wow, that article is the worst piece of bitcoin-bias I have yet seen I think.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: johnyj on August 22, 2013, 11:43:50 PM
IMO, the problem with alt-coins is that they are actually inflation in crypto currency world, and that is against the whole idea of getting rid of inflative currency from central banks. If you would also have an inflative money supply in crypto currency world (by adding more and more alt-coins), then why not just use fiat money, which at least has some control over money supply speed


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: sevenVII on August 22, 2013, 11:50:34 PM
Quote
Because it was started earlier and has had a greater opportunity to grow and attract users, Bitcoin has a market larger by a wide margin than all the markets of all the altcoins put together, and this makes it vastly more useful as a currency. To defeat Bitcoin, an altcoin would require not just superior technology, but such vastly superior technology as to be an advance over Bitcoin comparable to the advance Bitcoin represents over fiat currency. Furthermore, a truly great innovation would much better serve people by being incorporated into future versions of Bitcoin rather than by requiring them to switch to something else.

^ THIS. Absolutely my sentiments.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 23, 2013, 02:05:05 AM
Nails it.

http://themisescircle.org/blog/2013/08/22/the-problem-with-altcoins/

Dead on.

The only way an alt-currency survives is if it has some new feature that is impossible to add to Bitcoin.  That only happens in very rare instances, or in situations where Bitcoin is so large and stable that it isn't worth breaking.  There are also some situations possible where Bitcoin is superior for 95% of use cases, but inferior in 5%, and the niche currency will be able to hold that 5%.  The clones are nothing more than jealous haters who wish they were around during the Bitcoin boom.

Just looked back and noticed the author.  He is a bright guy.  I was actually talking about another article he wrote at a meetup, and he interrupted me to tell me he wrote it.  Small world.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on August 23, 2013, 03:44:37 AM
A much-needed debunking and evisceration of the pointlesscoin/scamcoin lansdcape.

Some pieces of writing are so comprehensive and well done, that they become the go-to authoritative link for certain topics.  This is one such article.



Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: solex on August 23, 2013, 05:32:39 AM
Wow, that article is the worst piece of bitcoin-bias I have yet seen I think.

Yes. And I enjoyed wallowing in it.  :)

The only way an alt-currency survives is if it has some new feature that is impossible to add to Bitcoin.

Correct.

One point which they did not highlight enough is that because cryptocurrency is software it is much harder for altcoins to displace bitcoin, which is very different from competing manufactured products.

Consider supercoin which has some radically better features than Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin has over $1bn riding on its success there is a significant investment by all the people who use it, own it, mine it, and otherwise profit from the ecosystem. So there would be huge incentive for Bitcoin dev to clone the software changes which make supercoin so super, even if it means a hard fork. Such a hard fork would be tolerated as all bitcoiners want to protect their own interests. As soon as these features are released in a new bitcoin version, then supercoin becomes irrelevant.




Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: domob on August 23, 2013, 07:00:47 AM
The only way an alt-currency survives is if it has some new feature that is impossible to add to Bitcoin.  That only happens in very rare instances, or in situations where Bitcoin is so large and stable that it isn't worth breaking.  There are also some situations possible where Bitcoin is superior for 95% of use cases, but inferior in 5%, and the niche currency will be able to hold that 5%.  The clones are nothing more than jealous haters who wish they were around during the Bitcoin boom.

I wouldn't say "impossible to add to Bitcoin" since that is basically never the case - you can add almost everything to Bitcoin.  But as you point out, it may not be practical.  I for instance consider Namecoin to be the most valuable "alt-coin" and of real use as opposed to most of the others, since it has some very real and great additions over Bitcoin.  But while it can in theory do everything that Bitcoin does and even more, I think it makes sense to not use them "also" as a Bitcoin-replacing payment system (or try to do so) but rather have different blockchains for different purposes (payments with Bitcoin, every kind of securing/freeing "information" with Namecoin).


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Lethn on August 23, 2013, 07:05:43 AM
Quote
First of all, Bitcoin already has competition. It competes with the dollar, with PayPal, and with the banking system as a whole. It has plenty of competition.

Sorry, but this quote alone shows where this guys allegiance lies, I've given up reading the entirety of these kind of articles because they're usually all the same kind of ranting that gets posted everywhere whenever the word 'Bitcoin' is mentioned, I'm glad despite the gaps in my knowledge I don't believe as much bullshit about Bitcoin as this guy does. Some altcoins are just bloody daft, that's true, there are some that are just blatant clones, but what's going to happen if the developers get put in jail etc. for money laundering or making currencies? Cryptocurrencies need a free market if they are to survive.

I see altcoins largely as backups of Bitcoin, you always need backups on a computer and a digital currency should be no exception, don't go hating against regulated and fixed markets and then complain when you finally get an unregulated free market because there's too much competition which is the main point I'm taking away from this guy.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Impaler on August 23, 2013, 08:58:57 AM
One point which they did not highlight enough is that because cryptocurrency is software it is much harder for altcoins to displace bitcoin, which is very different from competing manufactured products.

Consider supercoin which has some radically better features than Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin has over $1bn riding on its success there is a significant investment by all the people who use it, own it, mine it, and otherwise profit from the ecosystem. So there would be huge incentive for Bitcoin dev to clone the software changes which make supercoin so super, even if it means a hard fork. Such a hard fork would be tolerated as all bitcoiners want to protect their own interests. As soon as these features are released in a new bitcoin version, then supercoin becomes irrelevant.

Actually the history of software clearly shows that a brilliant new idea that no one foresaw often knocks over an established giant that is not innovating.  Actual physical manufacturing is a lot harder to undermine because of the high upfront capital cost needed to have the huge scale to take on someone with market dominance.  Feature incorporation is indeed a likely scenario if the feature is cosmetic, but the things that really matter to BTC, the coin cap, the algorithm and the coins durability are all sacrosanct, virtually all alternatives are different in exactly thouse areas that BTC would never change.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Impaler on August 23, 2013, 09:43:45 AM
The OP's article discusses Freicoin and unsurprisingly disagrees with the economic theories of Gesell as we would expect from someone on the Mises Circle as Gesell is basically heretical to the Austrian school of economics.  But the author to his credit dose not call Freicoin a scam or accusing it's supporters of being disingenuous, he simply feels our economic theory is wrong which still puts us on a higher level of respect then other alts in his eyes.

I would argue though that the author proves our own case when he attempts to make his.  When he says

Quote
This is not the place to refute the economic theory behind Freicoin, but essentially it is based on the idea that the interest rate is a purely monetary phenomenon rather than a result of time preference.

He has actually struck DIRECTLY at the key disagreement between Gesell and the Austrian school, Gesell says interest is a monetary phenomenon resulting from liquidity, Austrians say it is a result of time preference.  But he then goes on to say

Quote
Thus, by design, Freicoin discourages hoarding and encourages spending. It is touted as a currency for the working class rather than the wealthy because it supposedly can’t be used for making loans. Actually, however, if Freicoin were used for real, loans would simply be given at interest rates that are higher by 5%.

Here the author I think makes the rather simple error here of saying higher by 5% when it's quite obvious the rate is lowered by 5% (conversely the PPC coins ability to grow increases interest by the rate is grows at).  But this is really inconsequential if the rate is up or down, the point is that he admits that interest rates will be altered by the nature of money.  This is nothing less then the admission that interest is a monetary phenomenon as it is subject to change when the durability of money is changed.  Jow can interest arise from a universal human time preference but be dependent on the durability of money, a characteristic of the money itself?

Lastly the author states

Quote
Now, if something is created with the express intention of providing an incentive to get rid of it, then it stands to reason that they will all the more not want to buy it in the first place. Thus, Freicoin is actually made to discourage investment in itself, which is the very thing that gives a currency value in the first place.

Freicoin is an idea whose time will never come. Since it rebukes buyers, it resists ever having value. Freicoin is thus not so much a scam but more an abortion. Its ideals are so refined that they eschew the merest chance of affecting the real world. Perhaps it could be taken as some sort of absurdist parody, which would be brilliant. I hope that is true because otherwise it is just too sad.

Their is some truth here, Freicoin discourages the formation of speculative bubbles which have been the driving force in BTC.  But speculation is not the only thing that gives coins value, the earliest days of BTC were built on ideological interest and commitment.  Their is also the valuation that comes from the active circulation of a finite supply via the classic MV = PQ equation, in our opinion this can provide a valuation without speculation.  Lastly we have a charitable distribution plan for the bulk of the initial coin base which will bypass the need for most people to buy coins as we feel this is unnecessary and a huge contributor to speculation.



Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 23, 2013, 01:07:47 PM
The only way an alt-currency survives is if it has some new feature that is impossible to add to Bitcoin.  That only happens in very rare instances, or in situations where Bitcoin is so large and stable that it isn't worth breaking.  There are also some situations possible where Bitcoin is superior for 95% of use cases, but inferior in 5%, and the niche currency will be able to hold that 5%.  The clones are nothing more than jealous haters who wish they were around during the Bitcoin boom.

I wouldn't say "impossible to add to Bitcoin" since that is basically never the case - you can add almost everything to Bitcoin.  But as you point out, it may not be practical.  I for instance consider Namecoin to be the most valuable "alt-coin" and of real use as opposed to most of the others, since it has some very real and great additions over Bitcoin.  But while it can in theory do everything that Bitcoin does and even more, I think it makes sense to not use them "also" as a Bitcoin-replacing payment system (or try to do so) but rather have different blockchains for different purposes (payments with Bitcoin, every kind of securing/freeing "information" with Namecoin).

There are things that theoretically could not be added, such as a better distribution mechanism of initial coins.  You really can't go back in time and redo that.  Then again, that potential flaw fades every day as Bitcoin becomes more widespread and easier to obtain.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Kaiji on August 23, 2013, 01:42:34 PM

Alt coins gave people who missed out on the bitcoin bubble 2013 another chance. LTC jumped from $0.66 to $5 in a matter of weeks.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 23, 2013, 01:44:03 PM

Alt coins gave people who missed out on the bitcoin bubble 2013 another chance. LTC jumped from $0.66 to $5 in a matter of weeks.

The best purpose they serve is to move idiotic speculators who are trying to make a quick buck out of the Bitcoin market.  You are buying tulips if you are buying alt-coins.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: 600watt on August 23, 2013, 02:43:52 PM
every $, € (and so on) that is spent for any kind of altcoin cannot be spent for bitcoin. therefore it weakens the potential of bitcoin.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Carlton Banks on August 23, 2013, 03:02:13 PM
every $, € (and so on) that is spent for any kind of altcoin cannot be spent for bitcoin. therefore it weakens the potential of bitcoin.

What about if you spend fiat on obtaining alt-coin, then spend alt-coin on obtaining BTC  ;D

I think the major threat to Bitcoin from alts is that they crowd the picture to an outside. It makes the landscape look more complicated. A quick comparison of the price graphs for alts and Bitcoin should change that perception fairly rapidly.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: lonelyminer (Peter Šurda) on August 23, 2013, 05:14:04 PM
Here the author I think makes the rather simple error here of saying higher by 5% when it's quite obvious the rate is lowered by 5% (conversely the PPC coins ability to grow increases interest by the rate is grows at).  But this is really inconsequential if the rate is up or down, the point is that he admits that interest rates will be altered by the nature of money.  This is nothing less then the admission that interest is a monetary phenomenon as it is subject to change when the durability of money is changed.  Jow can interest arise from a universal human time preference but be dependent on the durability of money, a characteristic of the money itself?
Some changes in the money supply can affect economic calculation and thus the ability to accurately assess the connection between actual available investments and time time preference. That does not mean that time preference changes, only that the relationship between nominal and real interest rate changes.

I would say that normally, people do the economic calculation using the unit of account, and that also determines the nominal interest rate. Interest rates of other media of exchange, in the absence of transaction costs, would simply adjust due to arbitrage. Historically, there probably were significant transaction costs for arbitrage, but this does not apply to cryptocurrencies. So freicoin could only affect the difference between nominal and real interest rate if it was unit of account. This is unlikely unless it overtakes not only Bitcoin but also fiat money, and this is unlikely because it has lower liquidity and no significant improvements of transaction costs. If it does not become a unit of account, the demurrage would be arbitraged away on derivatives markets.

Their is some truth here, Freicoin discourages the formation of speculative bubbles which have been the driving force in BTC.  But speculation is not the only thing that gives coins value, the earliest days of BTC were built on ideological interest and commitment.  Their is also the valuation that comes from the active circulation of a finite supply via the classic MV = PQ equation, in our opinion this can provide a valuation without speculation.  Lastly we have a charitable distribution plan for the bulk of the initial coin base which will bypass the need for most people to buy coins as we feel this is unnecessary and a huge contributor to speculation.
I personally am somewhere in the middle. I don't think that Freicoin can meaningfully compete, for the reasons Daniel Krawisz lists, but I also don't think it will go away, because cryptocurrencies have shown that the critical mass of media of exchange can be lower than economists previously expected and historically experienced. Demurrage seems to have supporters who are willing to spend their resources on publicity, development and actual use, and that appears to be enough. That Freicoin survives does not require that the economic theories behind demurrage are correct, rather it is more of a question of network effect, social group dynamics, organisation theory and so on.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 23, 2013, 05:49:42 PM
every $, € (and so on) that is spent for any kind of altcoin cannot be spent for bitcoin. therefore it weakens the potential of bitcoin.

Not necessarily.  Someone inflating bubbles then running away when they explode is not weakening the potential.  If anything, they are hurting it.  Move them to alt-coins, let that economy remain completely unstable.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: ninjarobot on August 23, 2013, 10:51:53 PM
I found this to be a biased and mean spirited article. Just take a look at the images and captions.

Also the author cherry picks alts to bash. Namecoin for example brings a lot of innovation to the table due to the innovative use of the generic name/value pair and namespaces of which a decentralized DNS is one of the implementations. (Namecoin emphasizes the value of an open blockchain for purposes other than just currency)

Sure the majority are scamcoins but please don't tar them all with the same brush.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: xxjs on August 23, 2013, 11:56:07 PM
I look at it this way: At all times, the commodity with the best money properties would be the most sellable, and therefore gain exchange value in addition to its use value. When better money became available, the value of the old money would fall back to its intrinsic value. To the contemporarys, this would appear (in fact be) a bubble that burst. This could happen to bitcoin if a better cryptocurrency became available. I think currently bitcoin is the best, theoretically it could even reduce gold to its intrinsic value. Trying to introduce something worse than the currently best money would fail.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 24, 2013, 03:10:15 AM
I found this to be a biased and mean spirited article. Just take a look at the images and captions.

Also the author cherry picks alts to bash. Namecoin for example brings a lot of innovation to the table due to the innovative use of the generic name/value pair and namespaces of which a decentralized DNS is one of the implementations. (Namecoin emphasizes the value of an open blockchain for purposes other than just currency)

Sure the majority are scamcoins but please don't tar them all with the same brush.

Meanspirited yes, biased?  I don't see it.

And yes, namecoin does have uses.  It also has a lot of limitations, like names expiring and only being regenerated so fast.

What besides namecoin isn't either terrible or a scam or both?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Morbid on August 24, 2013, 08:11:13 AM
there is obviously a very large market starting to form in altcoin realm. all bitcoin miners are ether selling their gpus or converting them to mine altcoins. the infrostructure is there and its a shame not to use it in their opinion. dont forget that some of us make free elecy happen.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 24, 2013, 02:29:41 PM
there is obviously a very large market starting to form in altcoin realm. all bitcoin miners are ether selling their gpus or converting them to mine altcoins. the infrostructure is there and its a shame not to use it in their opinion. dont forget that some of us make free elecy happen.

GPU mining is the equivalent of a horse and buggy in the age of cars.  Sure, they are mad that they are now irrelevant, and this is one gasp at it, along with the speculators who missed the boat and want to get rich quick.  You could say thing about buggy whip manufacturers in 1920 "what a shame it is that this infrastructure is there and unused".  The only purpose it serves is people who are stuck in the past or trying to get rich quick.  The bubble is popping, especially as each new scamcoin pops up and people try to cash out from the last one to get rich at the next one.  The only people who care about miners are miners.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on August 24, 2013, 09:44:03 PM
This article can be summed up by:

The Problem With Altcoins is that they hurt my personal wealth, so they are bad.
The rest is just backward reasoning to justify that Bitcoin is superior to everything.

There is no point in reading an argumentation which is driven by it's agenda. I have to admit that I haven't carefully read thru the whole nonsense, but the fact there isn't even one positive thing about altcoins in it shows it's purpose. Greed is more visible to most bitcoiners when they look down at altcoins, but that is the very same greed that got most of them into bitcoins aswell.

Independet of the topic, it is alwasy a bad idea to read only stuff that supports your oppinion.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 24, 2013, 09:50:51 PM
This article can be summed up by:

The Problem With Altcoins is that they hurt my personal wealth, so they are bad.
The rest is just backward reasoning to justify that Bitcoin is superior to everything.

There is no point in reading an argumentation which is driven by it's agenda. I have to admit that I haven't carefully read thru the whole nonsense, but the fact there isn't even one positive thing about altcoins in it shows it's purpose. Greed is more visible to most bitcoiners when they look down at altcoins, but that is the very same greed that got most of them into bitcoins aswell.

Independet of the topic, it is alwasy a bad idea to read only stuff that supports your oppinion.

LOL, did you even read the same article I did?  Oh wait, you didn't even read it because you got butthurt that it badmouthed your beautiful junkcoins.  Funny that you mention greed, that is the only thing backing up all the junk out there.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on August 24, 2013, 10:26:40 PM
Oh wait, you didn't even read it because you got butthurt that it badmouthed your beautiful junkcoins.
I have no problems with people having a different opinion than me. I know you won't convince me to sell my junk and I won't change your opinion either, but that article was junk. If it makes you happy I would have written the same thing on an article positive on altcoins.

The problem I have with people like you (srry for generalisation) is that you live in your own opinion bubble and just read stuff that support your ego and prejustice.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: justusranvier on August 25, 2013, 01:32:36 AM
This article can be summed up by:

The Problem With Altcoins is that they hurt my personal wealth, so they are bad.
The rest is just backward reasoning to justify that Bitcoin is superior to everything.

There is no point in reading an argumentation which is driven by it's agenda. I have to admit that I haven't carefully read thru the whole nonsense, but the fact there isn't even one positive thing about altcoins in it shows it's purpose. Greed is more visible to most bitcoiners when they look down at altcoins, but that is the very same greed that got most of them into bitcoins aswell.

Independet of the topic, it is alwasy a bad idea to read only stuff that supports your oppinion.

LOL, did you even read the same article I did?  Oh wait, you didn't even read it because you got butthurt that it badmouthed your beautiful junkcoins.  Funny that you mention greed, that is the only thing backing up all the junk out there.
I love it when someone announces in the same post that they both have a strong opinion about something while also having no basis in knowledge for having an opinion at all. (I don't need to know what this article says in order to know I disagree with it!)

It's a rare gift when somebody tells you straight up out that it's safe to Ignore them. It saves so much time.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: altoidmintz on August 25, 2013, 09:22:15 PM
The network effect makes it harder for altcoins to succeed, but not impossible.
There was a USD network before there was a bitcoin network.
The fact is that altcoins are good for all the reasons competition is good: The only way they will succeed is if they can accomplish major innovation relative to bitcoin.
While that chance is small, it exists and is good.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Kyle91 on August 26, 2013, 05:21:27 AM
https://i.imgur.com/vqXGZNW.gif


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 26, 2013, 09:20:42 PM
Oh wait, you didn't even read it because you got butthurt that it badmouthed your beautiful junkcoins.
I have no problems with people having a different opinion than me. I know you won't convince me to sell my junk and I won't change your opinion either, but that article was junk. If it makes you happy I would have written the same thing on an article positive on altcoins.

The problem I have with people like you (srry for generalisation) is that you live in your own opinion bubble and just read stuff that support your ego and prejustice.

It is junk, yet you didn't even read it.

Bring on the arguments against it, I am not in a bubble.  I am willing to read opposing opinions.  It's how I learn from my mistakes.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on August 26, 2013, 09:27:39 PM
It was pretty easy to tell from the first few sentences it was going to be nothing but bitcoin-thumping tripe, which is when I made my initial post, then later I read the whole article and was not disappointed at all.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on August 26, 2013, 11:28:04 PM
Oh wait, you didn't even read it because you got butthurt that it badmouthed your beautiful junkcoins.
I have no problems with people having a different opinion than me. I know you won't convince me to sell my junk and I won't change your opinion either, but that article was junk. If it makes you happy I would have written the same thing on an article positive on altcoins.

The problem I have with people like you (srry for generalisation) is that you live in your own opinion bubble and just read stuff that support your ego and prejustice.

It is junk, yet you didn't even read it.

Bring on the arguments against it, I am not in a bubble.  I am willing to read opposing opinions.  It's how I learn from my mistakes.
Ok. As I said I still didn't read it carefully since I skipped the whole Freicoin part.

First of all it is bashing the altcoin community and very hateful towards anything exept bitcoins. If it were just about objective argumentation this wouldn't be in it. Conclusions are always to the max, either it's bitcoin or something else. The current form of coexisting (as it is in every free market today) is seen as an exeption from the norm.

This is due to overexaggerations of the network effect on magnitudes. From there it concludes too far on one sigle sideeffect. I'm not aware of even one free market where such dominance lasted for a longer period of time. On this argumentation everyone would drive the same car or at least brand of car, since networkeffects and the best engineers are working at that company.

It might be rightfull to criticite the greed/scam/intelligence of some members of the altcoin community but it is not fair to suggests everyone in altcoins it that way and generalize. Without even mentioning the greed in Bitcoin and the 2 bubbles it bursted it doesn't agrue anyting pro or con since it doesn't compare. The world ain't perfect either.

The free market and competition is seen as a bad thing or at least not good for it's own sake. It suggests a dominating bitcoin would be innovative without having any competition on the only area it is even able to innovate from it's current point. Bitcoin entrepreneurs aren't innovating only bitcoin in that sense since they are trading crypto currency aswell. That could be done in other coins aswell and will be copied. Innovation is risky and monopolists tend to avoid risk. I don't see why BTC would differ.

I could continue on disagreing his argumentation, but I'm tiered. As you might notice I didn't mention any argumentation pro altcoin. If I was about to write on a topic and spend most of the time on sideeffects without mentioning some of the fundamental effects (Ability to Change,PoS interest and Hedging) it is sure that I have an Agenda. You wouldn't learn anything about communism by reading their manifestos either so my conclusion: both it's political junk.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 27, 2013, 02:19:59 PM
Oh wait, you didn't even read it because you got butthurt that it badmouthed your beautiful junkcoins.
I have no problems with people having a different opinion than me. I know you won't convince me to sell my junk and I won't change your opinion either, but that article was junk. If it makes you happy I would have written the same thing on an article positive on altcoins.

The problem I have with people like you (srry for generalisation) is that you live in your own opinion bubble and just read stuff that support your ego and prejustice.

It is junk, yet you didn't even read it.

Bring on the arguments against it, I am not in a bubble.  I am willing to read opposing opinions.  It's how I learn from my mistakes.
Ok. As I said I still didn't read it carefully since I skipped the whole Freicoin part.

First of all it is bashing the altcoin community and very hateful towards anything exept bitcoins. If it were just about objective argumentation this wouldn't be in it. Conclusions are always to the max, either it's bitcoin or something else. The current form of coexisting (as it is in every free market today) is seen as an exeption from the norm.

This is due to overexaggerations of the network effect on magnitudes. From there it concludes too far on one sigle sideeffect. I'm not aware of even one free market where such dominance lasted for a longer period of time. On this argumentation everyone would drive the same car or at least brand of car, since networkeffects and the best engineers are working at that company.

It might be rightfull to criticite the greed/scam/intelligence of some members of the altcoin community but it is not fair to suggests everyone in altcoins it that way and generalize. Without even mentioning the greed in Bitcoin and the 2 bubbles it bursted it doesn't agrue anyting pro or con since it doesn't compare. The world ain't perfect either.

The free market and competition is seen as a bad thing or at least not good for it's own sake. It suggests a dominating bitcoin would be innovative without having any competition on the only area it is even able to innovate from it's current point. Bitcoin entrepreneurs aren't innovating only bitcoin in that sense since they are trading crypto currency aswell. That could be done in other coins aswell and will be copied. Innovation is risky and monopolists tend to avoid risk. I don't see why BTC would differ.

I could continue on disagreing his argumentation, but I'm tiered. As you might notice I didn't mention any argumentation pro altcoin. If I was about to write on a topic and spend most of the time on sideeffects without mentioning some of the fundamental effects (Ability to Change,PoS interest and Hedging) it is sure that I have an Agenda. You wouldn't learn anything about communism by reading their manifestos either so my conclusion: both it's political junk.

Do you care to address any of the criticism presented in the article, or just complain how you are upset about what it says?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on August 27, 2013, 03:43:07 PM
Do you care to address any of the criticism presented in the article, or just complain how you are upset about what it says?
I thought the main critisism of the article was that altcoins were useless/scammy/won't make it and that was argumented by network effect/market=bad/... You ment the technical aspects, right? Please give some examples what you mean.

I've the feeling we might be talking on different levels here. Some claims by the stupid/scammy part of the altcoin community are simply wrong. Busting wrong belives that some people might have about crypto is no form of critizism on the cryptos for themselves.

That's like saying Obama has a problem since he can't walk over water although some idiot had said that. That's no valid form of critisism if you then suggest that means Obama has a problem.



Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Kyle91 on August 27, 2013, 06:23:00 PM
Do you care to address any of the criticism presented in the article, or just complain how you are upset about what it says?
I thought the main critisism of the article was that altcoins were useless/scammy/won't make it and that was argumented by network effect/market=bad/... You ment the technical aspects, right? Please give some examples what you mean.

I've the feeling we might be talking on different levels here. Some claims by the stupid/scammy part of the altcoin community are simply wrong. Busting wrong belives that some people might have about crypto is no form of critizism on the cryptos for themselves.

That's like saying Obama has a problem since he can't walk over water although some idiot had said that. That's no valid form of critisism if you then suggest that means Obama has a problem.



To make it short, altcoins ARE useless


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Hexadecibel on August 27, 2013, 06:36:35 PM
Do you care to address any of the criticism presented in the article, or just complain how you are upset about what it says?
I thought the main critisism of the article was that altcoins were useless/scammy/won't make it and that was argumented by network effect/market=bad/... You ment the technical aspects, right? Please give some examples what you mean.

I've the feeling we might be talking on different levels here. Some claims by the stupid/scammy part of the altcoin community are simply wrong. Busting wrong belives that some people might have about crypto is no form of critizism on the cryptos for themselves.

That's like saying Obama has a problem since he can't walk over water although some idiot had said that. That's no valid form of critisism if you then suggest that means Obama has a problem.



To make it short, altcoins ARE useless

I used to feel this way. I use to HATE litecoin, for all the reasons people have mentioned here. But then, while on reddit, I read a post that turned my thinking.

An altcoin could be used as a tool to arbitrate between exchanges. Consider the large difference in Bitcoin trading prices between the leading exchanges. People could use the altcoin to arbitrate, and thus wouldn't need to rely on moving slow and cumbersome fiat around. This would actually strengthen the Bitcoin market and promote price stability.

There is the fact though, that then you would need ANOTHER altcoin to arbitrate between the leading altcoin price, etc.. but at least there is a feasible niche.

and just as a fyi, I do not hold anything but bitcoins.



Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rival on August 27, 2013, 07:02:18 PM
The network effect makes it harder for altcoins to succeed, but not impossible.
There was a USD network before there was a bitcoin network.
The fact is that altcoins are good for all the reasons competition is good: The only way they will succeed is if they can accomplish major innovation relative to bitcoin.
While that chance is small, it exists and is good.

+1

Gresham's law paraphrased is ""Bad money drives out good". Innovation is a good thing, let's try everything and see what works. Scam coins will eventually go extinct. Those with any real value will survive, or will be absorbed. But they must be first created to do either.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 27, 2013, 08:54:45 PM
The network effect makes it harder for altcoins to succeed, but not impossible.
There was a USD network before there was a bitcoin network.
The fact is that altcoins are good for all the reasons competition is good: The only way they will succeed is if they can accomplish major innovation relative to bitcoin.
While that chance is small, it exists and is good.

+1

Gresham's law paraphrased is ""Bad money drives out good". Innovation is a good thing, let's try everything and see what works. Scam coins will eventually go extinct. Those with any real value will survive, or will be absorbed. But they must be first created to do either.
This would be true if any alt-coin wasn't just a pure clone with some numbers changed around.  There is no innovation or differences.  Namecoin is the only one that comes to mind as something actually different.

The network effect means that not only does something have to be better, but it has to be a lot better to work.

I'd love to see more innovation and I have no horse in the race.  The get-rich-quick clones with terrible reasons why they are "better" are thoroughly debunked in this paper.  When one comes around that is innovative, either Bitcoin adapts or it is surpassed.  We are yet to see one that has had that happen, though.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: alp on August 27, 2013, 08:56:02 PM
Do you care to address any of the criticism presented in the article, or just complain how you are upset about what it says?
I thought the main critisism of the article was that altcoins were useless/scammy/won't make it and that was argumented by network effect/market=bad/... You ment the technical aspects, right? Please give some examples what you mean.

I've the feeling we might be talking on different levels here. Some claims by the stupid/scammy part of the altcoin community are simply wrong. Busting wrong belives that some people might have about crypto is no form of critizism on the cryptos for themselves.

That's like saying Obama has a problem since he can't walk over water although some idiot had said that. That's no valid form of critisism if you then suggest that means Obama has a problem.



To make it short, altcoins ARE useless

I used to feel this way. I use to HATE litecoin, for all the reasons people have mentioned here. But then, while on reddit, I read a post that turned my thinking.

An altcoin could be used as a tool to arbitrate between exchanges. Consider the large difference in Bitcoin trading prices between the leading exchanges. People could use the altcoin to arbitrate, and thus wouldn't need to rely on moving slow and cumbersome fiat around. This would actually strengthen the Bitcoin market and promote price stability.

There is the fact though, that then you would need ANOTHER altcoin to arbitrate between the leading altcoin price, etc.. but at least there is a feasible niche.

and just as a fyi, I do not hold anything but bitcoins.



This is a good point about the advantages of having one, but in the arb world, you need to have multiple exchanges that support Bitcoin and Litecoin, and then you need to have similar exchange rates of one but not the other.

You may see something with colored coins where a colored coin could be redeemed for dollars or other fiat at checkpoints that could serve this purpose in the future.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on August 27, 2013, 09:54:50 PM
There is the fact though, that then you would need ANOTHER altcoin to arbitrate between the leading altcoin price, etc.. but at least there is a feasible niche.
That's not true.

Margin trading could be done on bitcoin aswell. That wouldn't be a niche at all since it isn't required.

Similiar, but more important would be the possibility to swich between 2 ~equal cryptos to trade swings without having to leave crypto ever again. The basic up/down on crypto wouldn't matter so you can trade differences in innovating or stagnating cryptos. This would stabilize the whole system and is far more desireable than just one.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: bitcon on August 28, 2013, 06:19:51 AM
bitcoin will always be my main girl. sometimes i'll mess around with litecoin because she's younger and faster, but bitcoin will always be my first love.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: xxjs on August 28, 2013, 07:55:44 AM
bitcoin for romantics


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Joerii on September 01, 2013, 04:50:13 PM
The strongest argument for altcoins is missing in this article.

Faster confirmations are very much needed in most forms of commerce. I don't want to wait an hour when I want to buy something.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: justusranvier on September 01, 2013, 05:59:35 PM
Faster confirmations are very much needed in most forms of commerce. I don't want to wait an hour when I want to buy something.
You obviously don't have any experience with commerce.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: xxjs on September 01, 2013, 06:03:09 PM
Faster confirmations are very much needed in most forms of commerce. I don't want to wait an hour when I want to buy something.
You obviously don't have any experience with commerce.
Not adding info here, justusranvier.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: bitcon on September 01, 2013, 07:27:58 PM
i dont mind waiting the 30 minutes it takes btc to confirm when i buy something. sites like amazon or ebay dont even ship products out immediately anyways/you still have to wait a day or two for mr. postman to show up. when teleportation is invented, then you slow confirmation folks can complain... or not since you could just teleport the fiat instantly.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: justusranvier on September 01, 2013, 10:32:33 PM
When credit and debit card transactions can confirm (become irreversable) in under 10 minutes instead of 3-6 months then it would be legitimate to complain about Bitcoin.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 06, 2013, 05:02:47 AM
Nails it.

http://themisescircle.org/blog/2013/08/22/the-problem-with-altcoins/

The author Daniel Krawisz expounds verbally:

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/e53-monetary-darwinism/

(skip 30 or 34 mins into the audio stream)

I've invited him to debate me, awaiting a response.

One big hole in his (and Moldbug's) "there can only be one" theory, is that if a merchant only accepts BTC and I have only an altcoin, then assuming liquid exchange markets between the altcoin and BTC along with clever programming, I can pay with my altcoin at that merchant with one click. So there isn't any significant cost in terms of market mass to being not first in the market.

Quote
one would expect the mining difficulty to go up to the point where
investment in mining technology produces similar returns to investment in
the rest of the economy. And, of course, as I mentioned above, it is false
that Scrypt-coins are immune to ASIC mining

1. With CPU-only mining, I expect difficulty to exceed any reasonable
level that can be returned on investment, because millions of people will
do it because they easily can (download and click) and they won't correlate
to their insignificant increase in electric bill nor the cost of the PC they
already own applied to their part-time, hobbyist mining.

2. Scrypt can indeed by made immune to ASIC and GPUs. You should study it
more closely.

Quote
This argument highlights the emphasis from altcoin adherents on mining
rather than on monetization. There is no logical reason why any ordinary
user of Bitcoin should want to become a miner in the first place.

Er, what about obtaining coin quickly and anonymously with a download and click to run a CPU-only miner?

Obtaining Bitcoins is problematic, slow and complex. The new Bitcoin ATM machines (http://letstalkbitcoin.com/e54-towards-a-bitcoin-future/) that will be every where globally "by the end of 2014" will require a hand print, government id, and face photo. My gosh how much more one-world currency, 666 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=_b1C153lU7M#t=958) could it be?

Quote
Early on, it was profitable for casual Bitcoin users to be miners because very
few knew about Bitcoin. Mining now requires a capital investment, just
like everything else in the economy.

Er, I don't have to buy another PC if I already own one that is often idle (at night when I sleep for example).

Quote
A transition to lower profitability and greater capital
 intensiveness is inevitable for any maturing industry.

Yes, but that doesn't mean those two items can't be provided by decentralized peers.

Quote
This does not make it elitist; it simply means that the industry is
growing increasingly specialized.

Conflation of issues. What makes Bitcoin elitist is the incorrect technical design. Specialization is independent of elitism.

This is a smart guy who thinks he is smarter than he is. He is young, he will learn from older farts like me to expect the unexpected and not be so smug claiming omniscience.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rassah on November 06, 2013, 05:31:53 AM
One big hole in his (and Moldbug's) "there can only be one" theory, is that if a merchant only accepts BTC and I have only an altcoin, then assuming liquid exchange markets between the altcoin and BTC along with clever programming, I can pay with my altcoin at that merchant with one click. So there isn't any cost in terms of market mass to being not first in the market.

Just going to take a stab at this one thing here but, doesn't this imply that

1) someone has to use the resources to run such an exchange, when the alternative is to not waste those resourses and use Bitcoin
2) there must be enough other users to make the exchange liquid
3) one of you, probably you, has to go through the trouble of setting up an account on such an exchange, and software on your wallet, when it is easier to simply use Bitcoin

Essentially, while yes, the system can be patched to work, there is still the issue of fighting against the established system (using extra energy and resources) instead of simply capitulating to the lower energy-state system that doesn't have the extra friction.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 06, 2013, 08:24:23 AM
One big hole in his (and Moldbug's) "there can only be one" theory, is that if a merchant only accepts BTC and I have only an altcoin, then assuming liquid exchange markets between the altcoin and BTC along with clever programming, I can pay with my altcoin at that merchant with one click. So there isn't any cost in terms of market mass to being not first in the market.

Just going to take a stab at this one thing here but, doesn't this imply that

1) someone has to use the resources to run such an exchange, when the alternative is to not waste those resourses and use Bitcoin
2) there must be enough other users to make the exchange liquid
3) one of you, probably you, has to go through the trouble of setting up an account on such an exchange, and software on your wallet, when it is easier to simply use Bitcoin

Essentially, while yes, the system can be patched to work, there is still the issue of fighting against the established system (using extra energy and resources) instead of simply capitulating to the lower energy-state system that doesn't have the extra friction.

Appreciate that stab.

True, but if the cost is insignificant relative to the positive benefits to using the altcoin, then my point remains valid.

Specifically (as we have discussed over at the Mini-blockchain design (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=195275.msg3348804#msg3348804)), Bitcoin simply can't scale without mining going to cartels like Amazon, because for one reason the blockchain is becoming too large to be handled by normal computers and net connection bandwidth. Yet net bandwidth will scale fine to transaction volume otherwise, so it is the incorrect blockchain design which forces this outcome, as well as the loss of debasement to fund mining (because tx fees can be 0 or even refunded if we made them mandatory see linked thread for more detailed explanation).

Satoshi said this is what he expected.

And another extremely important feature from my expectation, is lack of anonymity in Bitcoin. The G20 is going to be hunting down all private wealth and nationalizing it, because the western nations are far beyond bankrupt. For example, the UK has a 550% total debt-to-GDP ratio, ditto for all western nations including newly industrialized such as China (study the numbers as I have (http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3179)!), not including that most unfunded social system promises future liabilities are kept off balance sheet, and we have up to another $quadrillion in credit-swap derivatives at the TBTF banks guaranteeing that interest rates won't rise (we wouldn't have had ZIRP without them), and recent official government plans (see the .gov websites) for the G7 indicate that bail-ins will fall on depositers and the cost of derivatives failure will be fall on deposits.

This means a total wipeout of private wealth.

So of course what is private wealth going to do? It is going to try to hide and what better place to hide than an anonymous decentralized coin.

The anonymity of using Tor with Bitcoin isn't anonymous because Tor is basically already cracked by the NSA, because for one thing all such low-latency mix-nets (including IP2 darknet, etc) are subject to timing attacks (discovery) when the entity can see all the traffic  between peers. They don't need to be able to decrypt the onion routing, they just need to see the timing of when packets are relayed. Research has shown this. Also the NSA has other attacks against Tor.

Coin tumblrs (aka laundries) don't really help, because the probability of your identity not being knowable (is not dependent on what you do, rather) is proportional to the number of tumblr users (in the same time period you used it) who do not reveal their identity downstream 50 to 100 transactions hence. Which is basically none of them, because there is no IP address anonymity built-in to Bitcoin. So those who are relying on these coin mixers to protect them, are blissfully ignorant fools. They haven't thought it out.

Bitcoin is a honeypot where all the libertarians are putting their "illegal activity" (everything will be illegal (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=_b1C153lU7M#t=796), remember what POTUS Bush Jr. said, "you are either with us, or against us") in the public ledger including implicitly their identities. The governments have not yet ruled on whether each Bitcoin transaction is a taxable capital gain event, so later say 2020 as the world descends into Madmax implosion, they hunt all of us down with huge tax and penalties for not reporting (and recent proposed legislation is they can cancel your USA passport if the IRS rules you owe $50,000+ and you don't pay). And don't think Europe will be any better. France is already pushing the EU to implement under the EU federalization such as a unified wealth tax, and as that can basically go to 75% or more as the crisis unfolds.

As a Treasury official said some decade ago about the time he also said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits", it has always been the plan to go after the millionaires and steal back all their gains to the elite (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7bQ7wwGnQQ#t=2195) (skip to 36:35 min of the linked video) who run the fiat system. And Bitcoin is an amazingly great tracking tool to aid them in this coming global confiscation via taxation of the rich process. Note the elite super rich are always excluded from such gestapos.

The government doesn't want to shut down Bitcoin nor the internet, they are wonderful steps towards a one-world, digital tracking system money. The mining will be owned by the corporations, thus the often claimed concept of decentralized control is thus nonsense. We've already lost it, we can't even hard-fork Bitcoin because the pools already own such decisions about changes to Bitcoin.

If you love everything good about Bitcoin, you will love even more an altcoin which fixes these issues. And believe me, it is coming...

Of course those who are already rich in Bitcoins, e.g. my internet friend who has 10,000 BTC, might fight against the superior coin, yet I think they will be opportunists and place some bets on diversification.

And so there will be another chance for those who missed the boat on Bitcoin to get in early. And this is will provide some dilution against those who got insanely rich off of Bitcoin and not consumerate with the level of risk and effort they applied to bettering the world.

Competition is a good thing! And one of the benefits of decentralized digital currencies is the big hole I have explained in the theory that "there can only be one".

Although I believe that "there can only be one" if there are not huge weaknesses in that coin, I also believe Bitcoin has such weakness and they can never be fixed in Bitcoin. For example, there is no way you will get Bitcoin to adopt a Mini-blockchain, because then the cartlized pools lose their control.

However, once the dumb masses are in the main coin, it will become much more difficult to compete with that coin. Because the dumb masses don't care about decentralization, anonymity, and the benefit of mining on PCs can be offset with palm-scanning ATM machines for Bitcoin (the dumb masses will blissfully scan their palm). We are not yet there, but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 06, 2013, 10:36:14 AM
As a Treasury official said some decade ago about the time he also said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits", it has always been the plan to go after the millionaires and steal back all their gains to the elite (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7bQ7wwGnQQ#t=2195) (skip to 36:35 min of the linked video) who run the fiat system. And Bitcoin is an amazingly great tracking tool to aid them in this coming global confiscation via taxation of the rich process. Note the elite super rich are always excluded from such gestapos.

Former (Jewish?) IRS Commissioner and the man who wrote much of the tax code law, said to (Jew) Aaron Russo (producer of Bette Midler, The Rose, Trading Places, etc) in Ashkenazi Jewish Yiddish language, "nothing will help you" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7bQ7wwGnQQ#t=2195). Skip to the 37 min point in the linked video.

The elite know exactly what they are doing by launching Bitcoin via the fictitious anonymous identity "Satoshi".

Nick Rockefeller told Aaron Russo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuinaIm-kd4) what the goal is.

P.S. The Ashkenazi Jews have a much higher average IQ of 117, and many elite are Ashkenazi Jews. The says nothing against all Jews however.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: digitalindustry on November 06, 2013, 11:22:01 AM
Anonymint

look at the Protoshares system right now -

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325261.0

this could make for good analysis

this algorithm seems to be not only "memory hard"  

but in the equation and ratio it seems to bias memory "function" over pure process we see now Digital Ocean systems being setup for it

will be interesting to see what occurs.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: digitalindustry on November 06, 2013, 11:34:59 AM
As a Treasury official said some decade ago about the time he also said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits", it has always been the plan to go after the millionaires and steal back all their gains to the elite (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7bQ7wwGnQQ#t=2195) (skip to 36:35 min of the linked video) who run the fiat system. And Bitcoin is an amazingly great tracking tool to aid them in this coming global confiscation via taxation of the rich process. Note the elite super rich are always excluded from such gestapos.

Former IRS Commissioner and the man who wrote much of the law, said to Aaron Russo (producer of Bette Midler, The Rose, Trading Places, etc) in Jewish Yiddish language, "nothing will help you" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7bQ7wwGnQQ#t=2195). Skip to the 37 min point in the linked video.

The elite know exactly what they are doing by launching Bitcoin via the fictitious anonymous identity "Satoshi".

Nick Rothschild told Aaron Russo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuinaIm-kd4) what the goal is.

Nick Rockefeller.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 06, 2013, 03:11:16 PM
Anonymint

look at the Protoshares system right now -

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325261.0

this could make for good analysis

this algorithm seems to be not only "memory hard"  

but in the equation and ratio it seems to bias memory "function" over pure process

I believe it is a fail. I'm awaiting confirmation. Perhaps I've misunderstood something:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325261.msg3499217#msg3499217


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: blablahblah on November 06, 2013, 03:19:06 PM
So much FUD, so little time!..

One thought that struck me with that article (and other similar commentary) is that the author is just incredibly greedy and doesn't want his unbelievable luck* to be inflated away by competition. Well, I hate to break it to you (nah, who am I kidding? Muahaha!) but:
-anyone can print coupons that are redeemable for their services,
-what about shares and stock options?
All of these alternatives dilute and steal value from earlier money-like accounting units. It's a fact of life. Real progress would be to enable better ways for people to "create their own money" (to fund their business ventures for example), but without the usury and friction from old money elites.

*unless he's the creator or an early developer who risked a huge amount.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: SquallLeonhart on November 07, 2013, 01:10:38 AM
There is no problem with Altcoins, some are better and more secure then Bitcoin...


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 01:27:45 AM
Anonymint

look at the Protoshares system right now -

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325261.0

this could make for good analysis

this algorithm seems to be not only "memory hard"  

but in the equation and ratio it seems to bias memory "function" over pure process

I believe it is a fail. I'm awaiting confirmation. Perhaps I've misunderstood something:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325261.msg3499217#msg3499217

Appearing more likely I am correct:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325261.msg3504302#msg3504302


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: mgio on November 07, 2013, 05:30:37 AM
Quote
Because it was started earlier and has had a greater opportunity to grow and attract users, Bitcoin has a market larger by a wide margin than all the markets of all the altcoins put together, and this makes it vastly more useful as a currency. To defeat Bitcoin, an altcoin would require not just superior technology, but such vastly superior technology as to be an advance over Bitcoin comparable to the advance Bitcoin represents over fiat currency. Furthermore, a truly great innovation would much better serve people by being incorporated into future versions of Bitcoin rather than by requiring them to switch to something else.

^ THIS. Absolutely my sentiments.


THIS++

GREAT article.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 08:35:03 AM
Quote
Because it was started earlier and has had a greater opportunity to grow and attract users, Bitcoin has a market larger by a wide margin than all the markets of all the altcoins put together, and this makes it vastly more useful as a currency. To defeat Bitcoin, an altcoin would require not just superior technology, but such vastly superior technology as to be an advance over Bitcoin comparable to the advance Bitcoin represents over fiat currency. Furthermore, a truly great innovation would much better serve people by being incorporated into future versions of Bitcoin rather than by requiring them to switch to something else.

^ THIS. Absolutely my sentiments.


THIS++

GREAT article.

I have debated the author in private email. Essentially he doesn't believe an altcoin can gain network effects. My response was basically this (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325261.msg3506749#msg3506749).


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Karmicads on November 07, 2013, 10:23:13 AM
bitcoin will always be my main girl. sometimes i'll mess around with litecoin because she's younger and faster, but bitcoin will always be my first love.

I thought litecoin was a he. Have you and (s)he gotten to third base yet?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: R160K on November 07, 2013, 12:34:10 PM
I agree largely with the article, though I still feel altcoins could play a valuable role in the future.

However, once the dumb masses are in the main coin, it will become much more difficult to compete with that coin. Because the dumb masses don't care about decentralization, anonymity, and the benefit of mining on PCs can be offset with palm-scanning ATM machines for Bitcoin (the dumb masses will blissfully scan their palm). We are not yet there, but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

I think this underlines the true magnitude of the network effect (as discussed in the article). While most of the original bit-pilgrims were drawn by the decentralised nature of bitcoin, the anonymity it promised (including those with less-than-legal purposes), and idealistic/geeky aspects of its cryptography and its economics, many of the next wave were simply speculators marveling at rapidly rising graphs and sensing an opportunity. Since then, the "third wave" of bitcoin users have given it a try because they've seen it advertised, found it a convenient way of storing wealth and making online payments. Even if a new alt-coin emerged that was vastly superior to bitcoin in EVERY SINGLE ONE of its original goals, joe-public, investors and many service providers would probably feel no massive urge to switch.

Consider supercoin which has some radically better features than Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin has over $1bn riding on its success there is a significant investment by all the people who use it, own it, mine it, and otherwise profit from the ecosystem. So there would be huge incentive for Bitcoin dev to clone the software changes which make supercoin so super, even if it means a hard fork. Such a hard fork would be tolerated as all bitcoiners want to protect their own interests. As soon as these features are released in a new bitcoin version, then supercoin becomes irrelevant.

In this case, supercoin was not irrelevant, because it galvanised an otherwise reluctant bitcoin to innovate. Anyone who believes altcoins (in their current form) could rival or even supercede bitcoin is deluded. But (semi) thriving altcoin economies provide real-world stress testing for new ideas (more so than testnet) that could be used to improve bitcoin. I think if altcoins are to succeed (not necessarily match bitcoin, but run alongside as a significant alternative economy trading with bitcoin) then it will take one of four forms:

1. One or more of the current altcoins (or even brand new ones), instead of being minor twists on bitcoin, need to correlate several good ideas (and good developers) into ONE coin and aim to constantly innovate in ways that bitcoin (or at least the Foundation) are scared to, in order to attract enough "purists" over to make it viable.

2. A payment system (not necessarily a single currency) that allows decentralised, anonymous, CHEAP sending of fiat (or fiat-linked) "currency". Something like Ripple (which from my reading appears to be a lot more decentralised than they make out to be, perhaps to attract venture capitalists' investments) - it would be possible now the code is open source to build clients designed not to link addresses, tumblers would be possible etc, and it if the network grew big enough there would be no need to trust the company's own "validators" - I haven't however used the system so can't say much in detail about it. Something else that could take off is Open Transactions.

3. Something built as an "extension" to Bitcoin. #2 above could be achieved with something like "Coloured Coins" or "MasterCoin" built ON-TOP of the bitcoin architecture. MasterCoin, as well as NXT, plan on using an "exodus block" for coins moved over from BTC instead of a genesis block, utilising the ubiquity of bitcoin rather than competing against it, allowing people to trade out of bitcoin when they require special features, then trading back in again.

4. Something COMPLETELY different.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 05:19:38 PM
Please publicly disagree if you do.

Even if a new alt-coin emerged that was vastly superior to bitcoin in EVERY SINGLE ONE of its original goals, joe-public, investors and many service providers would probably feel no massive urge to switch.

If the altcoin has sufficient demand (not even any where near Bitcoin) to generate a liquid exchange, then the altcoin can be converted on the fly to pay those who accept only Bitcoin.

So an altcoin doesn't need ANYONE to switch from Bitcoin, it only needs to grab a small percent of the market of new users. Bitcoin only has 350,000 users. There is a long way to go to 7 billion.

The key though is the altcoin needs to present something truly useful that Bitcoin can't copy. So it has staying power.

I think if altcoins are to succeed (not necessarily match bitcoin, but run alongside as a significant alternative economy trading with bitcoin) then it will take one of four forms:

1. One or more of the current altcoins (or even brand new ones), instead of being minor twists on bitcoin, need to correlate several good ideas (and good developers) into ONE coin and aim to constantly innovate in ways that bitcoin (or at least the Foundation) are scared to, in order to attract enough "purists" over to make it viable.

Agreed.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 07, 2013, 08:47:25 PM
Even if a new alt-coin emerged that was vastly superior to bitcoin in EVERY SINGLE ONE of its original goals, joe-public, investors and many service providers would probably feel no massive urge to switch.

If the altcoin has sufficient demand (not even any where near Bitcoin) to generate a liquid exchange, then the altcoin can be converted on the fly to pay those who accept only Bitcoin.

So an altcoin doesn't need ANYONE to switch from Bitcoin, it only needs to grab a small percent of the market of new users. Bitcoin only has 350,000 users. There is a long way to go to 7 billion.

The key though is the altcoin needs to present something truly useful that Bitcoin can't copy. So it has staying power.
Agreed.

I think the bold statement is the main reason why todays serious altcoins are here to stay (and justify a rise vs BTC)

The consenus required to do a hardfork is impossible to reach for anything other than fixing threating security problems for anything that actually changes someting. POS is unreachable for bitcoin and a true improvement over it. For everything else there would be an oposition against it and so prevents innovation on BTC itself.

People tend to forget that there is a difference between innvation on crypto and innovation on bitcoin. It doesn't matter that something was initially written for bitcoin since it can't be bitcoin exclusively. Bitcoin can't keep her innovation for itself, but also can't grap new innovation from the other cryptos.

The first crypto to buy is bitcoin, but some of the newcomers might see a feature, I think it will be POS and especially POS rewards, that is nice to have. I expect some of them to move on to altcoins, the % of is up to you, but that's basically the thing that matters.

Even if you don't belive in this there still will be a few idiots, lets say n% of them that want to become early adopters (as we are 350k/worldpop wouldn't be damm early) and they can be that rather on alts. The % is still up to you.

The massive urge to sell BTC for altcoins wouldn't come from the actual benefits for individuals from the altcoins features. It would come from possible profits and saving profits. It's always a bad idea to have all wealth in one thing, so it might be a good idea to move some % into different altcoins. Just to be save, and maby that altcoin will grow faster than bitcoin and there is no practical difference in using as payment.

A smaller crypto can easier double your wealth than a big one, so my point is about marketcapitalisation. Look up the % that all serious altcoins MC have compared to bitcoin and compare it with your estimated % on my previous points ...


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 10:46:19 PM
I've realized a new dilemma.

Assuming no transaction demand and no reason to hold the coin other than speculative investment demand, then the altcoin has to be appreciating faster than Bitcoin, else there will be a pernicious downward spiral. Litecoin may be caught in that now.

This realization seems to indicate there can only be one coin that survives, unless there is some reason to hold the coin other than its relative rate of appreciation.

One feature that might qualify is strong anonymity. Someone might resist transferring a balance to BTC given BTC's weaker anonymity, if anonymity was required for the holder.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Wekkel on November 07, 2013, 11:02:13 PM

This realization seems to indicate there can only be one coin that survives ....

I don't think this is the case. As a matter of fact, the open source character of crypto currencies, their similarity and the decentralisation and localisation aspects of multiple larger cryptos exactly fits the properties of this exiting new technology.

There will be more than one.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 11:10:08 PM

This realization seems to indicate there can only be one coin that survives ....

I don't think this is the case. As a matter of fact, the open source character of crypto currencies, their similarity and the decentralisation and localisation aspects of multiple larger cryptos exactly fits the properties of this exiting new technology.

There will be more than one.

That is an opinion. But can you refute the logic I presented?

Logically it seems the coin must have a unique feature that requires holding in spite of a lower rate of appreciation, else it makes sense to trade for the coin that is appreciating faster.

For example, you might like the fact that a coin is CPU-only, but unless you believe that is going to make it appreciate faster someday, then it makes more sense for you to hold the coin that is appreciating faster, because CPU-only is only something you deal with when mining and has nothing to do with requiring you to hold the coin.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: justusranvier on November 07, 2013, 11:10:17 PM
This realization seems to indicate there can only be one coin that survives, unless there is some reason to hold the coin other than its relative rate of appreciation.
Back in the early 90s, there were probably tens of thousands of individual bulletin board services. Most towns had several, and there were about half a dozen national ones in the US alone.

Each one was its own walled garden, with little to no communication between them.

In the late 90s as flat-rate ISPs began to enter the market, all the walled gardens got steamrollered by the Internet's network effect.

A tiny, statistically-insignificant minority of geeks prefer the walled gardens, while the rest of the population like having a single email address that works everywere.

It will be the same with cryptocurrencies. There will be one winner that achieves mainstream adoption, and a few toys currencies and that are kept alive by the few people who enjoy running them as a hobby and using them as testnets for new features.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 11:26:05 PM
This realization seems to indicate there can only be one coin that survives, unless there is some reason to hold the coin other than its relative rate of appreciation.
Back in the early 90s, there were probably tens of thousands of individual bulletin board services. Most towns had several, and there were about half a dozen national ones in the US alone.

Each one was its own walled garden, with little to no communication between them.

In the late 90s as flat-rate ISPs began to enter the market, all the walled gardens got steamrollered by the Internet's network effect.

A tiny, statistically-insignificant minority of geeks prefer the walled gardens, while the rest of the population like having a single email address that works everywere.

I already explained how this can be solved. If there is a liquid exchange between the altcoin and Bitcoin, then the altcoin is just as liquid and usable as Bitcoin in terms of transactions.

But the problem is if everyone wants to sell the altcoin, i.e. no reason to hold it, then there is no such liquid exchange.

It will be the same with cryptocurrencies. There will be one winner that achieves mainstream adoption, and a few toys currencies and that are kept alive by the few people who enjoy running them as a hobby and using them as testnets for new features.

It is possible that an altcoin could have strong anonymity that is very important to smaller percentage of the market, and that would be a reason to hold it.

There might be some other features that are important enough that some percentage of the market must hold the coin and can't hold Bitcoin.

Strong anonymity is something that if you need it, you need it, and not having it isn't acceptable.

Can you deny this logically?

Any other such features?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: justusranvier on November 07, 2013, 11:38:39 PM
I already explained how this can be solved. If there is a liquid exchange between the altcoin and Bitcoin, then the altcoin is just as liquid and usable as Bitcoin in terms of transactions.

But the problem is if everyone wants to sell the altcoin, i.e. no reason to hold it, then there is no such liquid exchange.
Friction always imposes costs. No how matter how good you make your exchange, it will always be more expensive than not needing to make an exchange. A line is the shortest distance between two points.

It is possible that an altcoin could have strong anonymity that is very important to smaller percentage of the market, and that would be a reason to hold it.

There might be some other features that are important enough that some percentage of the market must hold the coin and can't hold Bitcoin.

Strong anonymity is something that if you need it, you need it, and not having it isn't acceptable.

Can you deny this logically?

Any other such features?
Any feature that is so heavily demanded will be added to Bitcoin, because that is the most economically valuable solution.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 11:43:57 PM
Another feature would be to make it much easier for merchants to accept payment in the altcoin.

Because that drives some level of holding, since if merchants are that unsophisticated (as most are), they are not likely to have real-time exchange to Bitcoin programmed.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 07, 2013, 11:44:03 PM
then the altcoin has to be appreciating faster than Bitcoin, else there will be a pernicious downward spiral.
That doesn't make sense at all ...

I don't see why something has to be rising in order to speculate in something. Actually I'd rather like to speculate in something that got far less worth than it used to be than in something that got far more worth than it used to be. My profits depend on the %increase and my investment size, not on the actual value on the price tag.

This realization seems to indicate there can only be one coin that survives, unless there is some reason to hold the coin other than its relative rate of appreciation.
Back in the early 90s, there were probably tens of thousands of individual bulletin board services. Most towns had several, and there were about half a dozen national ones in the US alone.

Each one was its own walled garden, with little to no communication between them.

In the late 90s as flat-rate ISPs began to enter the market, all the walled gardens got steamrollered by the Internet's network effect.

A tiny, statistically-insignificant minority of geeks prefer the walled gardens, while the rest of the population like having a single email address that works everywere.

It will be the same with cryptocurrencies. There will be one winner that achieves mainstream adoption, and a few toys currencies and that are kept alive by the few people who enjoy running them as a hobby and using them as testnets for new features.
That doesn't make sense either. Just because better tec replaces good one doesn't suggest we will all use just the better tec and not lets say 2 better ones equally ...

A better example for arguing your way of thinking would be on BluRay vs HD DVD. Here your argumentation would work, but thats wrong either. Just take a look at DVD vs BluRay vs HD DVD and you see the dilemma.

It will never be just BluRay. Even if we wouldn't use DVDs anymore there would be a new format out by then so it will be Blu vs new disk. The networkeffect killed HD, that's true, but it could only do that because it was cheaper to use just one than 2 practical identical tecs. First of all is BTC to f.e. PPC not similiar in that kind of way (POS rewards) and it is actually better to use more than one crypto.

Any feature that is so heavily demanded will be added to Bitcoin, because that is the most economically valuable solution.
Dream on. It would be impossible to f.e. add at least some POS blocks to Bitcoin although it would be economically better.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 11:46:06 PM
I already explained how this can be solved. If there is a liquid exchange between the altcoin and Bitcoin, then the altcoin is just as liquid and usable as Bitcoin in terms of transactions.

But the problem is if everyone wants to sell the altcoin, i.e. no reason to hold it, then there is no such liquid exchange.
Friction always imposes costs. No how matter how good you make your exchange, it will always be more expensive than not needing to make an exchange. A line is the shortest distance between two points.

Agreed, but if the friction is below what the dumb user can recognize, then it effectively doesn't exist. I am not sure if that is possible, but it might be.

It is possible that an altcoin could have strong anonymity that is very important to smaller percentage of the market, and that would be a reason to hold it.

There might be some other features that are important enough that some percentage of the market must hold the coin and can't hold Bitcoin.

Strong anonymity is something that if you need it, you need it, and not having it isn't acceptable.

Can you deny this logically?

Any other such features?
Any feature that is so heavily demanded will be added to Bitcoin, because that is the most economically valuable solution.

Bitcoin will never add strong anonymity. Disagree?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 07, 2013, 11:49:08 PM
then the altcoin has to be appreciating faster than Bitcoin, else there will be a pernicious downward spiral.
That doesn't make sense at all ...

I don't see why something has to be rising in order to speculate in something. Actually I'd rather like to speculate in something that got far less worth than it used to be than in something that got far more worth than it used to be. My profits depend on the %increase and my investment size, not on the actual value on the price tag.

That is a strong counter-point. If the weakness was perceived as a buying opportunity, then it is not a pernicious decline. I was actually thinking I should buy my own altcoin if it got too weak, yet I wouldn't want to be the only person buying it.

So really we come back to how many people strongly believe the features of the altcoin are going to make it popular for the masses? Features which Bitcoin can never implement. And whether the masses really adopt it, and don't just mine it then sell it for BTC.

If you can get the masses to mine it via CPU-only, then you've already got their first attention. Normal people hate to change too often, i.e. learn new software, wallet systems, etc..


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: justusranvier on November 07, 2013, 11:52:04 PM
Bitcoin will never add strong anonymity. Disagree?
If it's something that an economic majority of users want, it will be added.

If the current core devs won't add it, then someone else will make a version that does include it and the user base will upgrade to their branch.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 07, 2013, 11:58:08 PM
Bitcoin will never add strong anonymity. Disagree?
If it's something that an economic majority of users want, it will be added.

If the current core devs won't add it, then someone else will make a version that does include it and the user base will upgrade to their branch.
Wrong, but you also have have just black-white thinking there.

What about some people like strawberry and some like choco. There is no point in arguning that there will be just one flavour and with different flavours in crypto we won't eat >95% bitcoin.


I have the feeling we are turning in circles here. What are the poins you agree on?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 12:00:10 AM
Bitcoin will never add strong anonymity. Disagree?
If it's something that an economic majority of users want, it will be added.

If the current core devs won't add it, then someone else will make a version that does include it and the user base will upgrade to their branch.
Wrong, but you just have black-white thinking there.

What about some people like strawberry and some like choco. There is no point in arguning that there will be just one flavour and with different flavours in crypto we won't eat >95% bitcoin.


I have the feeling we are turning in circles here. What are the poins you agree on?

He already agreed with you, because if Bitcoin is forked without the permission of the core devs, then the Bitcoin market will be split.

The only way to maintain consensus with Bitcoin is to not change it, yet the only way to get 100% of market will require changing it.

So by definition of incongruence, there can never be just one cryptocurrency.

I think we've proved it now.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: MaxBTC1 on November 08, 2013, 12:13:01 AM
I agree with this article however as BTC increases in value, people WILL look to alt currencies and that will drive prices.  Already miners (inc myself) have made the switch.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Wekkel on November 08, 2013, 12:13:51 AM
Cryptos are based on voluntary systems. You cannot compare it with State imposed fiat just like that. Yes, it will be clumsy to have more coins. Yes, there were all kinds of different papers flying around from several banks when banking was still free. Its called freedom. I would compare it to the various Linux distro's rising and falling.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 12:20:31 AM
Cryptos are based on voluntary systems. You cannot compare it with State imposed fiat just like that. Yes, it will be clumsy to have more coins. Yes, there were all kinds of different papers flying around from several banks when banking was still free. Its called freedom. I would compare it to the various Linux distro's rising and falling.

Now I see your logic. And it correlates with my prior post.

Freedom is incongruent with 100% consensus. Duh! (on me not you) Well yeah. Thanks.

So the only way you end up with 100% consensus is by state decree and then printing digits out-of-thin-air to gain the power and trickery to make that unnatural 100% consensus stick (with some percent of that 100% under duress).


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 12:33:28 AM
I was actually thinking I should buy my own altcoin if it got too weak, yet I wouldn't want to be the only person buying it.

That's the way I feel about Yacoin at the moment. I woud say one actual problem of altcoins is that you could burn your self hard on them. Especially if when I realize how much these btc could buy me now.


There hasn't been a real altcoin bubble yet, but if too many people lost too much on alts they might stick just to BTC. Bitcoin had a nice crash from 30$, but there wasn't many lives destryed back then and everyone sticking to the plan got out nicely.
Altcoins will be different on that one.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 12:46:08 AM
I was actually thinking I should buy my own altcoin if it got too weak, yet I wouldn't want to be the only person buying it.

That's the way I feel about Yacoin at the moment. I woud say one actual problem of altcoins is that you could burn your self hard on them. Especially if when I realize how much these btc could buy me now.


There hasn't been a real altcoin bubble yet, but if too many people lost too much on alts they might stick just to BTC. Bitcoin had a nice crash from 30$, but there wasn't many lives destryed back then and everyone sticking to the plan got out nicely.
Altcoins will be different on that one.

I remember what happened to Jason Hommel of SilverStockReport.com when he owned a majority of the float in several penny (pinksheet) silver mining stocks and couldn't get out before and during the 2008 implosion.

So we can relate this to the additional risks of investing in penny stocks versus those listed on major exchanges. The golden rule is don't put too great a percent of your networth nor own a significant portion of the float in any one of these (unless you are very sure you know which one is going big).


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 01:02:32 AM
The golden rule is don't put too great a percent of your networth nor own a significant portion of the float in any one of these (unless you are very sure you know which one is going big).
But my beautiful tulpes ...

The problem are not the fools that loose some money, they always have and always will. Banning stuff is goverments favourite pastime and an a altcoin bubble could be a good trigger for such. Crypto will survive, that's clear, but what about a gov regulating just btc for trades in crypto.

We a far away from such bubble in altcoins since even btc isn't known yet, but a altcoinbubble would be desatrous. That's at least a real problem on altcoins, although I'd love the money I will make on it.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 01:08:14 AM
Freedom is incongruent with 100% consensus. Duh! (on me not you) Well yeah. Thanks.

So the only way you end up with 100% consensus is by state decree and then printing digits out-of-thin-air to gain the power and trickery to make that unnatural 100% consensus stick (with some percent of that 100% under duress).
Did the government force everybody to standardize on HTTP for web sites, or did users freely choose to standardize on the most widely-deployed protocol exactly because the network effect made HTTP more valuable than its alternatives?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Siegfried on November 08, 2013, 01:08:43 AM
The golden rule is don't put too great a percent of your networth nor own a significant portion of the float in any one of these (unless you are very sure you know which one is going big).
But my beautiful tulpes ...

The problem are not the fools that loose some money, they always have and always will. Banning stuff is goverments favourite pastime and an a altcoin bubble could be a good trigger for such. Crypto will survive, that's clear, but what about a gov regulating just btc for trades in crypto.

We a far away from such bubble in altcoins since even btc isn't known yet, but a altcoinbubble would be desatrous. That's at least a real problem on altcoins, although I'd love the money I will make on it.

Disastrous for people that invest their life savings, but anyone with half a brain would not do that.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 01:29:25 AM
Did the government force everybody to standardize on HTTP for web sites, or did users freely choose to standardize on the most widely-deployed protocol exactly because the network effect made HTTP more valuable than its alternatives?

The network effect is very strong, I agree, but I belive it simply doesn't work on crypto. Diverent flavour in ice cream won't just disapere because of it although it would easyly have the power to do so. A special store on strawberry could be far better and cheaper than a store with diverent flavours.

It does work on the ice cornet or cups though. For it to work alternatives must be very similar and it must be more expensive to use both instead of one. There are no costs in paying in LTC over BTC and often the difference that it is different is enough. (Diversivication in investments)


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 01:29:36 AM
Freedom is incongruent with 100% consensus. Duh! (on me not you) Well yeah. Thanks.

So the only way you end up with 100% consensus is by state decree and then printing digits out-of-thin-air to gain the power and trickery to make that unnatural 100% consensus stick (with some percent of that 100% under duress).
Did the government force everybody to standardize on HTTP for web sites, or did users freely choose to standardize on the most widely-deployed protocol exactly because the network effect made HTTP more valuable than its alternatives?

There hasn't been any compelling feature that HTTP didn't have that is offered by any other protocol competing for the web pages.

But the analogy falls apart is another more compelling way. The barriers to competitions are centralized in the HTTP case, i.e. we can't as  individuals decide we want a web page to be served to us in another protocol. Client-server is not a decentralized paradigm. This is different from cryptocoins where an individual can decentrally convert between coins.

Standards are much more compelling when they require large inertia, i.e. changing all browsers, all web servers. Yet for coins, we can convert between them individually, no need to change what everyone else is doing.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 01:41:54 AM
Search "web page editor" or "cd burner software". There is no winner take all.

Lock-in network effects are not a foregone conclusion in every market.

It varies depending on the natural inertia.

Money in the past had a problem, in that it was physical so it could be stolen, thus people preferred to deposit it and carry receipts. These receipts became money. The banks could run fractional reserves by printing more receipts than they had deposits (of gold and silver). Thus the natural centralizing inertia went to the banks.

Cryptocurrencies based on distributed mining eliminate this centralizing inertia.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 01:57:16 AM
Lock-in network effects are not a foregone conclusion in every market.

It varies depending on the natural inertia.
...

I disagree with your arguments, not the result.

Inertia doesn't effect this in the way you suggest. High inertia would fight the lock-in since people would rather stay at where they are than to move to the one central item.BluRay vs HD DVD was very euqual and its huge inertia would have prevented a system to win so fast. Think of the billions invested in it.

As my icecream example it just depends on similarity and cost to run both. If BTC to altcoins would be similiar it would be the only crypto, but it isnt. There is also a huge inertia preventing people to completly moving completly from crypto to the other so that argument is invalid.

EDIT: Regional codes prevent people from the US to watch european DVDs so that inertia doesn't explain that we haven't HD DVDs in Europa and BluRay in the US.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 02:04:56 AM
Lock-in network effects are not a foregone conclusion in every market.

It varies depending on the natural inertia.
...

I disagree with your arguments, not the result.

Inertia doesn't effect this in the way you suggest. High inertia would fight the lock-in since people would rather stay at where they are than to move to the one central item.BluRay vs HD DVD was very euqual and its huge inertia would have prevented a system to win so fast. Think of the billions invested in it.

Sorry I think I am correct.

That is decentralized choice. Any individual can upgrade from VHS to VCD to DVD to BuRay at their own individual decision.

The reason HTTP is standardized is because client-server is not individual choice, i.e. the client can't dictate to the server which protocol to use. Rather all clients and servers have to agree on a set of protocols.

Don't conflate an individual's inertia (which is a decentralized effect, i.e. the inertias are diverse and not moving together in unison, thus they are small and move independently thus low NET inertia) with a centralized inertia. The latter is a much higher NET inertia.

Wikipedia degrees-of-freedom.

It is actually the same as potential energy. I can cite a reference if you don't believe.

P.S. I have slept maybe 15 hours in 5 days. I am not mentally sharp right now.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 02:16:47 AM
HD DVD isn't DVD.

They are more or less equal in features.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: vpitcher07 on November 08, 2013, 02:19:16 AM
I don't see altcoins as a direct threat to bitcoin. There's really not much incentive to move from bitcoin to another crypto and at this point I don't ever see there being an incentive to move unless something disastrous happens to bitcoin. I think it's a bit silly to be majorly involved in another crypto as no alternative will ever catch up to BTC as long as BTC is still afloat. For those whining about it's obvious bias towards bitcoin; wasn't that the point of the article? I pretty much agree with the article although I disagree with the so called competition of alternate crypto currencies.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 02:43:45 AM
It is actually the same as potential energy. I can cite a reference if you don't believe.

Inertia is the resistance of any physical object to any change in its motion while potential energy is the energy of an object or a system due to the position.

They are not the same, but I get what you want to say.

Inertia doesn't stop a ball to roll down a hill, and the potential energy is usually causing the acceleration, not preventing. A minimum in the potential funktion could be interpreted as "inertia", but that's not the first thing to come in mind talking about inertia and potential.



Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 02:59:08 AM
I don't see altcoins as a direct threat to bitcoin. There's really not much incentive to move from bitcoin to another crypto and at this point I don't ever see there being an incentive to move unless something disastrous happens to bitcoin.

You think you will never need anonymity to survive the G20 hunting down all wealth. Well most people don't see what is coming, so you are not alone. Your perspective could change drastically over the next few years when you see you can't keep any of your money without being anonymous. I can't guarantee it will get that bad, but it might.

You think there is no chance that the majority will be using a different coin than Bitcoin, thus you think you will never want to change. But you can't be sure that a CPU-only coin or PoS system wouldn't get coins in more hands faster than Bitcoin has at only 350,000 in 4 years. That is rather slow. My CoolPage.com web page editor went from 0 to 1 million downloads in less than 2 years from 1999 to 2001 when the internet was 1/10 the size it is now. I believe Facebook adoption was much faster than Bitcoin, but verify that for me please.

You think Bitcoin can survive with a bloated blockchain design that can't scale to Visa-scale, except if the mining is done by large corporations. I call that centralization and thus death, since the whole point of cryptocurrencies is to be decentralized to avoid control by the government. Large corporations and the government are in bed together for natural reasons.

I could go on, but I think you get the point.

I think it's a bit silly to be majorly involved in another crypto as no alternative will ever catch up to BTC as long as BTC is still afloat. For those whining about it's obvious bias towards bitcoin; wasn't that the point of the article? I pretty much agree with the article although I disagree with the so called competition of alternate crypto currencies.

FUD. Can you provide a logic?

Whining? I think you are whining. We are simply analyzing the logic.

It is easy to have bravado when no altcoin has yet seriously challenged Bitcoin, because no altcoin yet has been serious enough (apparently).


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 03:07:07 AM
It is actually the same as potential energy. I can cite a reference if you don't believe.

Inertia is the resistance of any physical object to any change in its motion while potential energy is the energy of an object or a system due to the position.

They are not the same, but I get what you want to say.

Inertia doesn't stop a ball to roll down a hill, and the potential energy is usually causing the acceleration, not preventing. A minimum in the potential funktion could be interpreted as "inertia", but that's not the first thing to come in mind talking about inertia and potential.

I was precisely saying that inertia is opposing degrees-of-freedom. Individual inertias which vary independently have a much higher potential energy than a centralized inertia which varies monolithically, because they collectively resist less a change in configuration of their arrangement (because they vary independently).

The NET inertia is not the sum of the individual inertias, when they vary independently. This is why smaller things grow faster, because they have better fittness to diverse opportunities, e.g. a poor person can triple his capital on a hot day selling cold water, yet a billionaire never can do that in a day.

Here is my blog:

http://unheresy.com


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 10:04:35 AM
Don't conflate an individual's inertia (which is a decentralized effect, i.e. the inertias are diverse and not moving together in unison, thus they are small and move independently thus low NET inertia) with a centralized inertia. The latter is a much higher NET inertia.

Wikipedia degrees-of-freedom.

It is actually the same as potential energy. I can cite a reference if you don't believe.

Here is the citation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy&oldid=435292864

Quote
Stored energy is created whenever a particle has been moved through a field it interacts with (requiring a force to do so), but the energy to accomplish this is stored as a new position of the particles in the field—a configuration that must be 'held' or fixed by a different type of force (otherwise, the new configuration would resolve itself by the field pushing or pulling the particle back toward its previous position). This type of energy 'stored' by force-fields and particles that have been forced into a new physical configuration in the field by doing work on them by another system, is referred to as potential energy. A simple example of potential energy is the work needed to lift an object in a gravity field, up to a support.

And here follows what I wrote about this concept in terms of higher-level semantics for a computer language which makes software more reusable, but you can apply the same concept to the freedom-to-innovate which is what we are concerned with in this thread. I relate this to the power vacuum as described by Mancur Olsen in The Logic of Collective Action (http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=984). I am thinking on very abstract conceptual terms here.

Quote from: Shelby aka Anonymint wrote 3 years ago
Fitness

Fitness is how well a particular configuration of a system fits the desired solution, e.g. how well a particular program fits the desired semantics.
For example, there would be gaps (i.e. errors in fitness) between a bicycle chain and a curved shape it is wrapped around, because the chain can only freely bend (i.e. without permanent bending) at the hinges where the links are joined. Each hinge is a degree-of-freedom, and the reciprocal of the distance between hinges is the degrees-of-freedom per unit length. Employing instead a solid, but flexible metal bar, the metal would remain fit to the curve only with a sustained force. The resisting force is a reduced degrees-of-freedom and an error in fitness. Permanent bending to eliminate the resisting force, reduces the degrees-of-freedom for future straightening some of the bend for wrapping to larger curves or straight shapes.

Higher-level semantics are analogous to adding more hinges. Cases in the higher-level semantics which don't compose, i.e. aren't unified, or where the high-level semantics don't fully express the desired semantics, are analogous to permanent bending.

Efficiency of Work

Efficiency of work is the ratio of the work output (i.e. performed) divided by the work input, i.e. the efficiency is 100% minus the work lost to friction.
The lower the friction, then less power is required to do the same work in a given period of time. For example, pushing a cart on wheels, requires much less power than to push it without wheels, or to push it uphill on wheels. The ground rubbing against the bottom of the cart, or gravity, are both forms of friction. The rubbing is analogous to the permanent bending of the metal bar in the Fitness section, because the top of the ground and the bottom of cart are permanently altered. The gravity is a form of friction known as potential energy.

Given the friction is constant, then the input power (and thus input energy) determines the rate at which work can be completed. If the type of friction is potential energy, then the more work that is performed, the greater the potential energy available to undo the work. This type of potential energy is due to the resistance forces encountered during the work to produce a particular configuration of the subject matter. For example, a compressed spring wants to push back and undo the work performed to compress it.

Since the goal is to get more configurations (i.e. programs) in the software development system with less work, then these resistance forces must be reduced, i.e. increase the degrees-of-freedom so that fitness is closer to 100%. Visualize an object held in the center of a large sphere with springs attached to the object in numerous directions to the inside wall of the sphere. These springs oppose movement of the object in numerous directions, and must be removed in order to lower the friction and increase the degrees-of-freedom. With increased degrees-of-freedom, less work is required to produce a diversity of configurations, thus less power to produce them faster. And the configuration of the subject matter which results from the work, thus decays (i.e. becomes unfit slower), because the resistance forces are smaller. Requiring less power (and work), to produce more of what is needed and faster, with a greater longevity, is thus more powerful (efficient) and explains the wisdom of a forgotten proverb.

Google can't even find a wise proverb, “if you use your power, then you lose it”. The equivalent form, “absolute power corrupts absolutely”, is probably popular because it is a common misperception that power is useful (i.e. to be idoled). The utility of power exists only because there are resistance forces, i.e. friction and inefficiency. This generative fact applies to everything. For example, the power vacuum (i.e. the need for more power to get work done) that gives rise to central authority is due to the (resisting forces caused by) vested interests, bickering, selfishness, and complacency (laziness) of the governed.

Knowledge

Knowledge is correlated to the degrees-of-freedom, because in every definition of knowledge one can think of, an increase in knowledge is an increase in degrees-of-freedom and vice versa.
Software is unique among the engineering disciplines in that it is applicable to all of them. Software is the process of increasing knowledge. Thus the most essential characteristic of software is that it does not want to be static, and that the larger the components, thus the fewer the degrees-of-freedom, and the less powerful (i.e. efficient) the software development process.

Communication redundance (i.e. amplitude) is a form of power, because its utility exists due to the friction of resistance to comprehension, i.e. due to noise mixed with the signal. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) depends on the degrees-of-freedom of both the sender and the receiver, because it determines the fitness (resonance) to mutual comprehension.

The difference between signal and noise, is the mutual comprehension (i.e. resonance) between the sender and the receiver, i.e. noise can become a signal or vice versa, depending on the fitness of the coupling. In physics, resonance is the lack of resistance to the change in a particular configuration of the subject matter, i.e. each resonator is a degree-of-freedom[1]. Degrees-of-freedom is the number of potential orthogonal (independent) configurations, i.e. the ability to obtain a configuration without impacting the ability to obtain another configuration. In short, degrees-of-freedom are the configurations that don't have dependencies on each other.

Thus increasing the number of independent configurations in any system, makes the system more powerful, requiring less work (and energy and power since speed is important), to obtain diversity within the system. The second law of thermodynamics says that the universe is trending to maximum entropy (a/k/a disorder), i.e. the maximum independent configurations. Entropy (disorder) is a measure of the relative number of independent possibilities, and not some negative image of violence or mayhem.

This universal trend towards maximum independent possibilities (i.e. degrees-of-freedom, independent individuals, and maximum free market) is why Coase's theorem holds that any cost barrier (i.e. resisting force or inefficiency) that obstructs the optimum fitness will eventually fail. This is why decentralized small phenomena grow faster, because they have less dependencies and can adapt faster with less energy. Whereas, large phenomena reduce the number of independent configurations and thus require exponentially more power to grow, and eventually stagnate, rot, collapse, die, and disappear. Centralized systems have the weakness that they try to fulfill many different objectives, thus they move monolithically and can fulfill none of the objectives, e.g. a divisive political bickering with a least common denominator of spend more and more debt[16].

Thus in terms of the future, small independent phenomena are exponentially more powerful than those which are large. Saplings grow fast into trees, but trees don't grow to moon (nor to end of the universe). The bell curve and power law distributions exist because the minority is exponentially more efficient (i.e. more degrees-of-freedom and knowledge), because a perfectly equal distribution would require infinite degrees-of-freedom, the end of the universe's trend to maximum disorder, and thus a finite universe with finite knowledge. It is the mathematical antithesis of seeking knowledge to have socialism (equalitarian) desires for absolute equality, absolute truth, or perfection in any field.

The organization of matter and natural systems (e.g. even political organization) follows the exponential probabilistic relationship of entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics, because a linear relationship would require the existence of perfection. If the same work was required to transition from 99% to 100% (perfection) as to transition from 98% to 99%, perfection would be possible. Perfection is never possible, thus each step closer to 100% gets asymptotically more costly, so that perfection can never be reached. This is also stated in the Shannon-Nyquist sampling theorem, wherein the true reality is never known until infinite samples have been performed (and this has nothing to do with a pre-filter!). The nonexistence of perfection is another way of stating that the universe is finite in order, and infinite in disorder, i.e. breaking those larger down to infinitely smaller independent phenomena.

Copute attempts to apply these concepts to software, by increasing the independence (orthogonality) of software components, so they can be composed into diverse configurations with less work. Independent programmers can leverage independent components with less communication and refactoring work, thus Copute is about increasing cooperation.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Resonance&oldid=432632299#Resonators

A physical system can have as many resonant frequencies as it has degrees of freedom.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Resonance&oldid=432632299#Mechanical_and_acoustic_resonance

Mechanical resonance is the tendency of a mechanical system to absorb more energy [i.e. less resistance] when the frequency of its oscillations [i.e. change in configuration] matches the system's natural frequency of vibration [i.e. natural change in configuration] than it does at other frequencies.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: lumierre on November 08, 2013, 10:07:37 AM
LTC is just an imitation of BTC but PPC is a completely different cryptocurrency. I'm not promoting the coin but the idea of Proof of Stake (PoS) is just genius. Not only does it save energy that could've went to other meaningful and productive calculations but it also gives coin generation power to every coin holder ANYWHERE he/she may be in the world. Homeless people, uncivilized tribes, etc. would have a fair and equal coin generation capability.

I wanted to mine bitcoins before but my country is really far away from those ASIC manufacturers. I didn't want to risk my money to pre order hardware. I believe Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoins to give anybody with a computer generate significant amounts of bitcoins. From what I am seeing today, that is no longer the case. Bitcoins are no longer completely decentralized. Eventually, the people who has the most mining power will rule it. Many may not share this view especially those people who have access to the new ASIC miners. I trully believe that PoS in coins is an innovative solution for the geographical problem. Mining will become the fundamental problem with bitcoin. It is unsustainable, wasteful, volatile, easily manipulated by strong enough players, geographically selective in terms of hardware availability and electricity rates. The author of the article makes great points against altcoins but is incredibly biased on bitcoins.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 10:37:43 AM
LTC is just an imitation of BTC but PPC is a completely different cryptocurrency. I'm not promoting the coin but the idea of Proof of Stake (PoS) is just genius. Not only does it save energy that could've went to other meaningful and productive calculations but it also gives coin generation power to every coin holder ANYWHERE he/she may be in the world. Homeless people, uncivilized tribes, etc. would have a fair and equal coin generation capability.

But then why are PoS altcoins not growing fast and catching up to Bitcoin or are they?

My guess is because people fundamentally understand that getting something for doing nothing (i.e. redistributing the new coins based on share of the collective) is communism. But let me hear the logic of others, because I want to understand this better.

Also PoS does nothing to help you get your initial coins without a fiat exchange. And you can't increase your share by being more proactive, innovative, and risking your capital on mining.

Without risk, no new knowledge is created. Ponder that.

I wanted to mine bitcoins before but my country is really far away from those ASIC manufacturers. I didn't want to risk my money to pre order hardware. I believe Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoins to give anybody with a computer generate significant amounts of bitcoins. From what I am seeing today, that is no longer the case. Bitcoins are no longer completely decentralized. Eventually, the people who has the most mining power will rule it. Many may not share this view especially those people who have access to the new ASIC miners. I trully believe that PoS in coins is an innovative solution for the geographical problem. Mining will become the fundamental problem with bitcoin. It is unsustainable, wasteful, volatile, easily manipulated by strong enough players, geographically selective in terms of hardware availability and electricity rates.

Very much agreed. Inclusiveness is very important. Facebook is available every where, even on my cell phone in a third world Asian country.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Feneusens on November 08, 2013, 11:15:03 AM
I prefer Altcoins as Bitcoin already priced too high.... although it is likely to hit $1000 but litecoin is likely to hit $50 maybe?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 11:28:23 AM
My guess is because people fundamentally understand that getting something for doing nothing (i.e. redistributing the new coins based on share of the collective) is communism. But let me hear the logic of others, because I want to understand this better.
Communism isn't the right way to describe it. It could be seen very capitalistic, you get paid for helping the blockchain. Bitcoin isn't different since there the miners get paid to secure the chain. The only difference is that miners have to waste resources while POS is wasteless. I rather see someone getting rewards for free than to just to waste stuff.

There is no redistribution of wealth, so the rich stay rich and the poor stay poor. Everyone has all chances so it's the way capitalism should be. It's the redistribution that kills any eco system. We now have redistribution to the rich and it will destroy capitalism in the same way than communism got killed by redistribution in the other direction.



Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: lumierre on November 08, 2013, 11:30:29 AM
My guess is because people fundamentally understand that getting something for doing nothing (i.e. redistributing the new coins based on share of the collective) is communism.
People actually do something to get new coins. As Sunny King has said if my understanding is correct, keeping coins to get coins is actually "saving". You lose the ability to spend your coins in exchange for having more coins in the future. Well, if that is communism, then I'd rather have that than see unproductive capitalism. Imagine a third world country entrenched with capitalism spending resources on mining hardware and energy rather than agriculture, infrastructure, or whatever just because it is more profitable. It just doesn't make the world any better.

 
Also PoS does nothing to help you get your initial coins without a fiat exchange. And you can't increase your share by being more proactive, innovative, and risking your capital on mining.

Without risk, no new knowledge is created. Ponder that.
You could always trade physical goods get your initial coins. It brings REAL world innovation. A person could do or produce something innovative and ask for coins. The coins become an asset that generate recurring income. I'm not quite sure about the "risk" you are speaking of but people use a currency because they TRUST it. People use fiat currency because they believe that the risk is so low that it is worth representing value. When there is risk that the USD, for example, would collapse, people stay away from using it. Therefore, when there is less risk, the currency has more value. I think PoS coins haven't caught up yet because people aren't aware of it yet. I feel that the transition would be mainstream fiat currency to BTC then in the long run BTC to PoS coins but I may be mistaken.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: R160K on November 08, 2013, 01:41:54 PM
If the altcoin has sufficient demand (not even any where near Bitcoin) to generate a liquid exchange, then the altcoin can be converted on the fly to pay those who accept only Bitcoin.

So an altcoin doesn't need ANYONE to switch from Bitcoin, it only needs to grab a small percent of the market of new users. Bitcoin only has 350,000 users. There is a long way to go to 7 billion.

The key though is the altcoin needs to present something truly useful that Bitcoin can't copy. So it has staying power.

Agreed. The success of an altcoin is very unlikely to depend on it beating bitcoin (something most late-to-the-party altcoin peddlars don't seem to appreciate). If liquid exchanges exist for a coin then it is usable in every context bitcoin is.

Friction always imposes costs. No how matter how good you make your exchange, it will always be more expensive than not needing to make an exchange. A line is the shortest distance between two points.

This is only true when there is a dual-price bid/offer spread. Traders will be willing to pay the par value of the currency they're buying, plus a little bit extra for the added value they perceive in holding one currency rather than another. In a fee-less exchange, if there is more demand for one currency than another then costs will only be imposed one way (from the less desirable to the more desirable), with savings made in the other direction. Now in most cases it is natural to assume that demand for bitcoin will be higher than demand for any particular altcoin and therefore the cost of friction will always fall upon the shoulders of the person trying to spend altcoins on bitcoin services - but this is not necessarily the case. In some cases the friction will be negligible, making truly liquid exchanges a (pseudo-)reality for some alt-coins.

The issue then is whether there will be liquid exchanges for a coin, which depends on whether or not there is any incentive to hold the coin. Anonymint says that for there to be any incentive to hold an alt-coin then:
then the altcoin has to be appreciating faster than Bitcoin, else there will be a pernicious downward spiral.

This is not true. Faster appreciation of value of a coin is what will encourage purely speculative investors to hold/ditch the coin. But there are other reasons for holding certain coins, depending on the features they offer.

Simply offering something that bitcoin can't do however is not sufficient to imply that there is a good reason to hold the coin, because people might prefer to trade out of bitcoin just to use that feature then trade back into bitcoin afterwards, making adequate liquid exchanges unviable.


Let's consider then some current and possible future features of alt-coins:

***************************

Quicker transaction times - if coins with quicker transaction times were only purchased when needed, i.e. bitcoins were exchanged for them, then the wait for the exchange transaction would negate the gain in efficiency - thus people would hold onto coins if quicker transaction times (with the associated orphan-risk) was thought a desirable enough feature.

Smaller blockchain - the point of wanting a smaller blockchain is so that coins can be stored locally rather than having to trust a centralised service. If someone only exhanged bitcoins for this alt-coin when they wanted to use it, they would either have to store those coins centrally or store them locally with a large or else a centralised blockchain, defeating the point of having a smaller blockchain - thus people would hold onto coins if a smaller blockchain (with the associated risks of a likely smaller network) was thought a desirable enough feature.

In these two cases, if the feature was a desirable one there would be a reason to hold on to alt-coins and thus liquid exchanges. However, I personally do not feel either is enough of an improvement to produce a large enough demand.

Coloured coins - there is little difference between switching between coins of different colours within an alt-coin and just buying coins of a certain colour directly with bitcoin. Therefore there is no reason to hold them IN GENERAL: however if there is a particular colour of coin that is worth holding for reasons of usability and/or appreciating value, particularly one that doesn't have its own blockchain/distribution system, then there will be a reason to hold the alt-coin and thus liquid exchanges.

Anonymity - this is likely to (and WILL) be a very attractive feature of some alt-coin (the only reason bitcoin would even dream of implementing it would be if not implementing it would cost them SIGNIFICANT market share and threaten its future dominace, which is unlikely due to the network effect and the fact that most bitcoin users nowadays don't feel the need for ABSOLUTE anonymity). Many services which rely on or prefer anonymity would accept this currency directly, and users only using crypto for those services would hold the currency directly rather than buying bitcoins. Liquid exchanges would be very likely - decentralised, anonymous exchanges would make users of the anonymous currency even more confident.

Proof-of-stake - this provides its own incentive for holding coins, if and only if the growth rate of the held balance * the appreciation rate of the coin's value is greater than the appreciation rate of bitcoin (or some other coin or commodity). Whether the coins will find any significant direct use beyond being an occasional speculative opportunity for bitcoin investors is doubtful, but this alone is sufficient for liquid exchanges and therefore makes them spendable on bitcoin-enabled services.

Stable value - a coin with some sort of built-in automatic monetary policy that adjusts the amount of coins in circulation to keep the price stable would I think be able to attract a modest market share of risk-averse individuals who want a reliable, decentralised store of value. Also, having a stable price will give merchants/service providers an alternative currency to hedge their prices in. They could still use bitcoin as their primary mode of payment, but rather than calculating the bitcoin price based on a fixed dollar/euro price, they could set a fixed "stablecoin (e.g.)" price. Such a coin would function more like a currency than a commodity (which arguably is how bitcoin is behaving right now), though this is unlikely to make it topple bitcoin as people will still generally think in "dollars/euros" and see even a stable cryptocurrency as a medium of exchange. There is still an incentive to hold it as a store of value however.

Different inflationary principles - (demurrage, interest, different/no volume ceiling). There may be some limited situations where a coin with different inflationary principles from bitcoin is desirable, however this is extremely unlikely for the simple reason that any digital currency that doesn't automatically stabilise it's value or else sufficiently peg its value to some commodities/services will be seen as a secondary medium of exchange for other currencies rather than as a true currency in its own right. The article pointed out the flaw with currencies that provide a disincentive to hold on to them - people won't buy them in the first place. What about a currency that provides an incentive to hold on to coins, such as paying exponentially increasing interest (a flat rate of interest would increase the money supply uniformly accross all balances, leaving everyone in the same position value-wise)?. Provided it could gain some initial value, and interest was earned at a decent rate, there would be more demand to buy than to sell so liquid exchanges would be likely (and frictionless in the altcoin-to-bitcoin direction). How much of a userbase something like this could get in order to establish a value however (competing not just against bitcoin but also proof-of-stake coins) I'm unsure. When the supply of bitcoins (eventually) reaches its limit, then perhaps some less scarce altcoin (LTC for example) will become useful for sub-satoshi price differentiation (though even if bitcoin reached 1000x its current value 1 satoshi would be worth only $0.03 so the need for this will likely be very limited).

Name/value pairs (i.e. Namecoin) - obvious: if you want to keep the name/value pair (which is why you bought Namecoin in the first place), you have to hold the coin.

New features (e.g. messaging layer, completely re-imagined contracts) - a new coin built from the ground up, using the principles of bitcoins but offering completely new services, would function like an extension to the bitcoin protocol thus it is likely people would only trade out of bitcoin and hold these coins if they had an immediate need for one of these extended services. Thus liquid exchanges are less likely.

***************************

Of course, all of these features will likely appeal only to informed users who keep abreast of developments, know what they want and consider their options - there is not going to be any massive pull for "ignorant" users (meant in a non-condescending way).

Any feature that is so heavily demanded will be added to Bitcoin, because that is the most economically valuable solution.

The other factor that determines whether a feature is sufficient to make an alt-coin viable is whether it is easily integrated into bitcoin. Factors that can be implemented on a client level (and don't require changes to the protocol), such as coloured coins and smaller blockchains, are never going to give an alt-coin a unique advantage. In general, most new features which work well enough on alt-coins will likely be integrated into bitcoin, but there are four exceptions. Ideas that are controversial (like ZeroCoin/anonymity), impossible (like changing the reward system to proof-of-stake), involve a trade-off (like quicker transaction times at the expense of more orphan blocks), or aim to achieve something at odds with one of bitcoin's core principles (like different inflationary or distribution principles).

TL;DR:
In order for an altcoin to have long term success, it needs to offer unique features which a) bitcoin will not replicate and b) provide in-and-of-themselves an incentive to hold onto coins.

[Apologies for the length of the post.]


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: R160K on November 08, 2013, 01:55:24 PM
My guess is because people fundamentally understand that getting something for doing nothing (i.e. redistributing the new coins based on share of the collective) is communism. But let me hear the logic of others, because I want to understand this better.

 :D By this logic, keeping money in an interest-paying savings account, investing in dividend-paying shares or government bonds, or owning a property in a period of rising house prices is communism. Also, the fundamental principle of communism is distributing wealth to match the distribution of labour rather than investment, the OPPOSITE of getting something for nothing (apart of course from the needy and infirm).

Seriously though, I doubt anyone is turning their nose up at free money for reasons of ideological taste.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 02:13:32 PM
Disclosure: I have a bias and vested interest against PoS since I want to see a CPU-only PoW. I don't want any reader to take my comments as meaning PoS is not viable, because different people think differently and value different things. So PoS can have a value to those who value it. And it is not entirely impossible that I might someday be convinced to support PoS. I don't have a strong desire to bash PoS, I am just sharing my logic.

My guess is because people fundamentally understand that getting something for doing nothing (i.e. redistributing the new coins based on share of the collective) is communism. But let me hear the logic of others, because I want to understand this better.
Communism isn't the right way to describe it. It could be seen very capitalistic, you get paid for helping the blockchain. Bitcoin isn't different since there the miners get paid to secure the chain. The only difference is that miners have to waste resources while POS is wasteless. I rather see someone getting rewards for free than to just to waste stuff.

How does PoS help secure the blockchain? See I don't think PoS is secure. How do we decide who gets to choose what goes in the next block? One way is we all vote with our share. The other way is each share gets a turn with frequency proportional to share. The former suffers the Tragedy of the Commons effect as well as the Logic of Collective Action power vacuum and the latter suffers from the fact the ordering is not fed from an external random entropy (as in PoW) thus can be manipulated.

How does PoW waste resources? I actually believe it will increase resources! You see energy is abundant (probably practically limitless), yet finding it requires innovation. How do you spur innovation? You increase demand!

The malthusian peak oil tree hugging environmentalism that has been programmed into western brains by Rockefeller/Rothschilds manipulation of media (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuinaIm-kd4) is just amazing. Most westerners believe this nonsense now, even though it has failed to be true over and over in history.

I once did a calculation on how much oil the world uses and it is approximately the same as the flow of a medium size river, e.g. nothing like the Mississippi. And now we see we are finding abundant new oil and natural gas in Australia, USA, etc.. Btw, Honda sells a car that runs on LPG.

The AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) folks forget that Time Magazine had on its cover in the 1970s the dire threat of Man-made Global Ice Age.

Some where in this bitcointalk.org I ran a poll on PoW when I was arguing a point with bytemaster, and my position got 82% of the votes. I explained that microhydropower (small stream) is nearly free energy and readily available to any one who applies some effort.

I would rather people actually innovate than think laziness actually helps anything. Having digits sit in a wallet adds very insignificant new knowledge. Very minimal risk was applied, simply the decision to hold for the appreciation of the coin.

Whereas, finding and bringing online new sources of energy adds knowledge, because this will leads to more outcomes.

There is no redistribution of wealth, so the rich stay rich and the poor stay poor. Everyone has all chances so it's the way capitalism should be. It's the redistribution that kills any eco system. We now have redistribution to the rich and it will destroy capitalism in the same way than communism got killed by redistribution in the other direction.

Actually the rich always get richer if we only sit on our money with a constant rate of return, because they spend a smaller portion of their income and gains.

We don't have capitalism now in the mainstream economy (we do in the tech economy), we have socialism because the money is all fiat debt thus controlled by fascism.

My guess is because people fundamentally understand that getting something for doing nothing (i.e. redistributing the new coins based on share of the collective) is communism.
People actually do something to get new coins. As Sunny King has said if my understanding is correct, keeping coins to get coins is actually "saving". You lose the ability to spend your coins in exchange for having more coins in the future.

Yes but that is very lazy and adds very little individualized innovation. Refer upthread to my point about individual inertia versus centralized inertia and the fact that the former has exponentially higher potential energy.

Fitness and degrees-of-freedom are economics. I urge readers to study what I explained upthread.

Well, if that is communism, then I'd rather have that than see unproductive capitalism. Imagine a third world country entrenched with capitalism spending resources on mining hardware and energy rather than agriculture, infrastructure, or whatever just because it is more profitable. It just doesn't make the world any better.

Malthusian myopia.

Microhydropower would contribute to making that third world country the most innovative on new energy sources. And lift it past the G20 in wealth, freedom, and capitalism.

I am re-educating you. Try to forget everything that has been put into your brain by the mass media. It is all shit.

Also PoS does nothing to help you get your initial coins without a fiat exchange. And you can't increase your share by being more proactive, innovative, and risking your capital on mining.

Without risk, no new knowledge is created. Ponder that.
You could always trade physical goods get your initial coins. It brings REAL world innovation.

Agreed becoming a merchant is one way and it applies to PoW coins also. And agreed it is individualized innovation! Yeah!

But this puts the cart before the horse somewhat, since my point is how do new coins get distributed and get millions of people into the coin. We need more customers than merchants.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: R160K on November 08, 2013, 02:30:01 PM
I appreciate this whole PoS discussion is going a little off topic, but I didn't start it so I've no guilt joining in.

I think the main advantage of PoS (and one that many people neglect when considering it from a purely speculative investment perspective) is the fact that producing coins does not waste oodles of (irrecoverable) real world resources. This is what would make it attractive to miners (especially later on) - yet because current PoS coins (like PPCoin) are scrypt-hybrids, which are not easily ASIC mined, there is little incentive for new miners with lots of start-up capital but no PPCoin "stake" to start large mining operations, which would then provide an incentive for these companies to advertise/lobby on behalf of the coin; so it could take a while to really kick off, in particular it will require both the mining difficulty of bitcoin to increase much further and mining other coins to be less profitable.

The fear I have about proof-of-stake coins is this: imagine a miner holds a 10% stake of the entire economy, but the company has huge debts and needs to liquidate its coins to fiat in order to pay its creditors, so sells them off cheap, flooding the market with cheap coins and crashing the economy. This is of course a theoretical fear, and the in practice the larger and more distributed the network, the less likely this is to happen.

I think PoS coins haven't caught up yet because people aren't aware of it yet. I feel that the transition would be mainstream fiat currency to BTC then in the long run BTC to PoS coins but I may be mistaken.

Given that PoS will likely take a long time to come into its own (decades), there is a chance it could (possibly) challenge bitcoin - by that time bitcoin will be far more ubiquitous, thousands (millions) of services will be accepting it as a payment method and millions of people will be familiar with it (and the notion of digital currency), and with enough co-ordinated impetus behind another coin it should not be too difficult to get merchants/service providers to directly accept payments in that currency, especially if it becomes significantly more cost-effective for miners that they take action to actively promote it. But this is nothing like certain and the network effect of bitcoin could very easily prove too strong for a very similar crypto with no real difference in usability - and I shall remain sceptical until I see some real signs. If there is to be a transition, it will first require the wide-scale success of bitcoin.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 02:35:21 PM
Anonymity - this is likely to (and WILL) be a very attractive feature of some alt-coin (the only reason bitcoin would even dream of implementing it would be if not implementing it would cost them SIGNIFICANT market share and threaten its future dominace, which is unlikely due to the network effect and the fact that most bitcoin users nowadays don't feel the need for ABSOLUTE anonymity). Many services which rely on or prefer anonymity would accept this currency directly, and users only using crypto for those services would hold the currency directly rather than buying bitcoins. Liquid exchanges would be very likely - decentralised, anonymous exchanges would make users of the anonymous currency even more confident.

Thanks for the confirmation of the logic I presented upthread on the value of anonymity. Won't be for everyone, but some want it.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: R160K on November 08, 2013, 02:37:21 PM
How does PoW waste resources? I actually believe it will increase resources! You see energy is abundant (probably practically limitless), yet finding it requires innovation. How do you spur innovation? You increase demand!

While this does make some sense theoretically, I think that the increase in demand for energy even by the entire bitcoin economy is insignificant compared to the increased demand for energy in general and therefore will contribute very little in-and-of-itself to spurring on innovation in that sector. The main way that I feel PoW wastes resources is in terms of individuals - the electricity, hardware, floor space, time etc. they have invested in bitcoin could be being used more innovatively with the same return were they using PoS instead of PoW.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 02:39:59 PM
How does PoW waste resources? I actually believe it will increase resources! You see energy is abundant (probably practically limitless), yet finding it requires innovation. How do you spur innovation? You increase demand!

While this does make some sense theoretically, I think that the increase in demand for energy even by the entire bitcoin economy is insignificant compared to the increased demand for energy in general and therefore will contribute very little in-and-of-itself to spurring on innovation in that sector. The main way that I feel PoW wastes resources is in terms of individuals - the electricity, hardware, floor space, time etc. they have invested in bitcoin could be being used more innovatively with the same return were they using PoS instead of PoW.

See upthread in my first post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279650.msg3495695#msg3495695) why I expect CPU-only PoW to be dominated by hobbiests running their PC at night while they sleep. The serious miners will likely have to go microhydropower. It is not the level of demand, yet that all the serious demand goes to some new technology that once the locals see it applied, can spread like wildfire and be applied to powering local communities.

I want to send westerners out into the hinterlands. Ready to live in Machu Picchu?

P.S. This benefit can't come from Bitcoin as mining will be dominated by corporations behemoths, due to the ever expanding blockchain and the ASICs economy-of-scale.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 03:45:51 PM
How does PoW waste resources?

Securing the network with a technology that has to use lot's of electricity insead of POS that doesn't require any is a good example of wasting resources. It isn't innovative to use a expensive way to do it if you already knew a better one to do it for free.

Your argument is invalid, since it basically says it's impossible to waste resources at all.
Remember we are talking about securing the network, not distributing new coins to anyone willing to work for it. Once blockrewards decline POW won't do that anymore and it's 100% wasteful while POS doesn't cost anything at all.


When looking at POS you seem to miss the point that there is no new wealth generation. If we would add a zero to every dollar bill, bank account,wages, etc nothing would change. Noone would be richer or poorer, in fact nothing changes. Even a 10-fold wouldn't make a difference, so 1% per year isn't even worth mentioning in term of costs.

People sending funds loose fees and interrest, but it's these people that need a safe and non reverseable network. Someone holding a wallet doesn't need that once it's in the blockchain. Why should someone else or all pay for them the efford to do the work.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 04:16:24 PM
How does PoW waste resources?

Securing the network with a technology that has to use lot's of electricity insead of POS that doesn't require any is a good example of wasting resources. It isn't innovative to use a expensive way to do it if you already knew a better one to do it for free.

Walking to work gets you there, but using energy to get you there is much more efficient and leads to more production overall for society. Creating a demand for that use of energy leads to all sorts of new technologies and innovations and causes the economy to expand.

Energy is not a finite resource. The more innovation we do, the more energy we produce.

The only limit of mankind is our knowledge.

Try to lose that Malthusian zero-sum nonsense that mass media has brainwashed into the people.

The elitists want you to believe that nonsense. Refer to the stated goals on Ted Turner's (CNN) Georgia Guidestones (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones#Inscriptions).

Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
Unite humanity with a living new language.
Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
Balance personal rights with social duties.
Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.

Your argument is invalid, since it basically says it's impossible to waste resources at all.

No.

Waste is where there is no return. Efficiency is output divided by input.

Remember we are talking about securing the network, not distributing new coins to anyone willing to work for it. Once blockrewards decline POW won't do that anymore

Debasement should continue forever. It is good for economics and the middle class. I've already had that debate in the Mini-blockchain thread. Refer to it there if you want to refute it. I don't want to repeat that debate again here in this thread. Getting too far off topic.

and it's 100% wasteful while POS doesn't cost anything at all.

PoS has a huge cost in laziness and lost innovation.

You are valuing hardware (energy) more than knowledge! Big mistake!

When looking at POS you seem to miss the point that there is no new wealth generation.

Correct, there is wealth destruction. But I doubt you see why.

First of all, the laborers (knowledge workers) spend a higher percent of their income and gains and savings, thus they fall behind the rich. Yet the rich can't innovate, because innovation requires small capital and thus fitness. The rich can only replicate. Mass production is coming to an end with the 3D printer.

Secondly, it encourages laziness, which is the epitome of capital destruction. Remember capital is not money, money is a claim on future knowledge production. If you stop producing knowledge, then the capital (the value of the money) declines w.r.t. to knowledge that has utility. The utility of the money declines.

If we would add a zero to every dollar bill, bank account,wages, etc nothing would change. Noone would be richer or poorer, in fact nothing changes. Even a 10-fold wouldn't make a difference, so 1% per year isn't even worth mentioning in term of costs.

Don't conflate that with the motivation the system has on the participants.

People sending funds loose fees and interrest, but it's these people that need a safe and non reverseable network. Someone holding a wallet doesn't need that once it's in the blockchain. Why should someone else or all pay for them the efford to do the work.

You could try to rewrite this last paragraph so I can understand your point.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: lumierre on November 08, 2013, 04:38:25 PM
Interesting arguments.  ;D

But I and most probably many people want is to have the cryptocurrency that has the least risk of destabilization and manipulation. Mining just brings in too much physical factors that may affect bitcoin's stability. Innovation may even bring bitcoin's demise. Let's say some people developed new mining hardware that is superior to the current ones. Who knows the future right? I fear that it may go to the wrong hands and manipulate the block chain. Or, what if suddenly a big enough corporation starts hoarding mining hardware? Heck, bitcoin's current market cap is nothing to mainstream companies. By innovation, what if a country is suddenly capable of producing unprecedented amounts of energy? They would be capable of manipulating the block chain and do attacks because the costs of trying so is lesser. But if you put that same country with a PoS coin economy, that country may acquire, hoard and then dump coins. However, that would inflate the value of the coins and inject more purchasing power for the free market before the dump. The value would decrease and so it defeats the purpose of hoarding. I'm not aware of any other risks of having a PoS system in an economic perspective.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 05:10:01 PM
Insurance is guaranteed failure. Fearing competition is fearing life.

You reinforce my thought that a CPU-only PoW algorithm needs to be provably so.

I think PoS isn't secure (explained upthread) and if I am correct, you have similar risks then.

Your points stand and my points stand. Thanks for the discussion. Any way, we can have both. That is the point of this thread. Let the market decide.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 06:24:59 PM
I think PoS isn't secure (explained upthread) and if I am correct, you have similar risks then.

Your points stand and my points stand. Thanks for the discussion. Any way, we can have both. That is the point of this thread. Let the market decide.
I agree.
You might see security issued with PoS that I don't see, but you fail to see that there are security issues with PoW aswell. It's pointless to discuss which one is better on it's own, but a combination beats them both. That's something bitcoin will never be able to implement, even if there were no PoS rewards.

PoS is a way to get a decentralized "central authority" that validates a block chain. PoW will never be decentralized since only the strong have enough hashing power, on PoS everyone can participate and noone can be forced to stop doing it.

Your argument is invalid, since it basically says it's impossible to waste resources at all.

No.

Waste is where there is no return. Efficiency is output divided by input.
That's an akward definition of wasting.

If I have 2 ways to finish a job and one takes 1000 times the resources than the other it is wasteful to go with anything but the efficient method. We don't have unlimited energy so we have to use it efficiently.

People sending funds loose fees and interrest, but it's these people that need a safe and non reverseable network. Someone holding a wallet doesn't need that once it's in the blockchain. Why should someone else or all pay for them the efford to do the work.

You could try to rewrite this last paragraph so I can understand your point.

Once my funds are in the blockchain burried after a few 100 blocks I don't care about the network beeing safe and non reversable. It's expensive to keep it that way so people loosing the PoS rewards pay for that. Fees alone aren't enough in a late state. People rather loose profits than money, altough it's the very same.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 06:42:11 PM
I think PoS isn't secure (explained upthread) and if I am correct, you have similar risks then.

Your points stand and my points stand. Thanks for the discussion. Any way, we can have both. That is the point of this thread. Let the market decide.
I agree.

100% consensus requires bickering and war. Competition allows peace and coexistence.

I think we have concluded that There Is No Problem With Altcoins and have refuted the OP.

You might see security issued with PoS that I don't see, but you fail to see that there are security issues with PoW aswell.

I see both as imperfect. Chocolate and vanilla. Choose one. Yes I lean towards CPU-only PoW (not Bitcoin's PoW!) as superior in my analysis so far. I am not claiming omniscience. I'll let the market decide.

It's pointless to discuss which one is better on it's own, but a combination beats them both.

I have no opinion nor analysis on that at this time. I did some reading on that coin which has that, but have forgotten if I concluded anything.

That's something bitcoin will never be able to implement, even if there were no PoS rewards.

Bitcoin won't be able to implement most everything without losing current consensus.

PoS is a way to get a decentralized "central authority" that validates a block chain. PoW will never be decentralized since only the strong have enough hashing power, on PoS everyone can participate and noone can be forced to stop doing it.

CPU-only PoW won't have that problem (if someone ever successfully creates such a coin), as I explained upthread.

Your argument is invalid, since it basically says it's impossible to waste resources at all.

No.

Waste is where there is no return. Efficiency is output divided by input.
That's an akward definition of wasting.

If I have 2 ways to finish a job and one takes 1000 times the resources than the other it is wasteful to go with anything but the efficient method. We don't have unlimited energy so we have to use it efficiently.

Agreed but you need to count all the downstream outputs, and I explained upthread how for example innovation on microhydropower has potential cascading benefits that were not in your calculation.

And the nature of free markets and knowledge creation, is that none of us can be omniscient and see all benefits from innovation.

We can't calculate what we can't see and measure. And I already provided at least one example of cascading benefits that refutes the claim of total waste, and that same innovation wouldn't be incentivized in PoS.

I am not asserting forcing people to expend resources creates innovation. First there is choice here whether to mine or not. It is a free market. Second note that innovation on energy has the potential to create more energy than was consumed by what caused the innovation.

People sending funds loose fees and interrest, but it's these people that need a safe and non reverseable network. Someone holding a wallet doesn't need that once it's in the blockchain. Why should someone else or all pay for them the efford to do the work.

You could try to rewrite this last paragraph so I can understand your point.

Once my funds are in the blockchain burried after a few 100 blocks I don't care about the network beeing safe and non reversable. It's expensive to keep it that way so people loosing the PoS rewards pay for that. Fees alone aren't enough in a late state. People rather loose profits than money, altough it's the very same.

I still don't understand. We have to pay for mining agreed. What does this have to do with PoS vs. PoW?

Blockchains don't have to be bloated. The mini-blockchain design solves that.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rassah on November 08, 2013, 07:15:00 PM
The issue I have with PoS is that a bank that has the most amount of money will have the biggest stake, and we already have that system, and examples of the results.

Why is anonymity being brought up as an argument against bitcoin? Anonymity is a feature, which can simply be built on top of the underlying bitcoin protocol. We already have a few propozals, like zericoin and coinjoin. And if a "cryptocurrency" is built that implements anonymity, but the only use it has it to be used in conjunction with bitcoin to add anonymity, then I wouldn't even call it a separate currency, but simply a Bitcoin plug-in.

Someone also mentioned that there are many coins that are more secure than bitcoin. That is patently false, since to be more secure than bitcoin you have to have a bigger network that secures your system, and more higher-skilled developers that work in your code. There aren't any currencies that have either of those be better than what bitcoin has.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 07:46:45 PM
I am posting so much in this thread because this is rather important to me at the moment, as understanding the correct logic affects some big decisions I need to make pronto.

The issue I have with PoS is that a bank that has the most amount of money will have the biggest stake, and we already have that system, and examples of the results.

Include variants of that under my Mancur Olsen's Logic of Collective Action weakness of PoS upthread.

Why is anonymity being brought up as an argument against bitcoin? Anonymity is a feature, which can simply be built on top of the underlying bitcoin protocol.

I thought I already explained why upthread. But in case I didn't or wasn't clear and thorough, I will reiterate.

There are two aspects to anonymity. The first is to anonymize your IP, so that no one knows who spent that coin. The second is to use a coin mixer to break links between identities of spends that derive in making change for each transaction in the same coin tree.

We already have a few propozals, like zericoin and coinjoin. And if a "cryptocurrency" is built that implements anonymity, but the only use it has it to be used in conjunction with bitcoin to add anonymity, then I wouldn't even call it a separate currency, but simply a Bitcoin plug-in.

Problem is that if everyone is not doing IP anonymity correctly, then the mixers aka tumblrs or laundries (you mentioned a few) are useless, because the degree of uncertainty about who owns a coin that comes out the mixer is proportional to the number of coins that don't reveal their identity on any spend downstream.

Also mixers can be honeypotted, employ timing analysis, etc..

Mixers just don't really provide anonymity and amazing that so many people naively think they can rely on them.

So the point I just made is that IP anonymity needs to be built into the coin.

Also note that Tor, I2P darknet, etc are all low latency mix-nets for anonymizing your IP. Yet these are all subject to timing analysis by an entity which can see the all encrypted packets, e.g. the NSA. Read here at Tails (a bootable OS with Tor) to confirm:

https://tails.boum.org/doc/about/warning/index.en.html#index7h1

Thus there is no adequate IP anonymity available for use with Bitcoin.

If you trust a VPN, you surely can't prove it is not a honeypot.

Someone also mentioned that there are many coins that are more secure than bitcoin. That is patently false, since to be more secure than bitcoin you have to have a bigger network that secures your system, and more higher-skilled developers that work in your code. There aren't any currencies that have either of those be better than what bitcoin has.

Agreed. They may have been talking about the potential for Bitcoin to become cartelized in the future, which is a form of future insecurity. If they were implying that PoS is not subject to 50+% attack, my analysis says they are mistaken,  but I really don't want to revisit that because PoS algorithms are very complicated to describe and discuss.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rassah on November 08, 2013, 07:55:19 PM
Problem is that if everyone is not doing IP anonymity correctly, then the mixers aka tumblrs or laundries (you mentioned a few) are useless, because the degree of uncertainty about who owns a coin that comes out the mixer is proportional to the number of coins that don't reveal their identity on any spend downstream.

Also mixers can be honeypotted, employ timing analysis, etc..

Mixers just don't really provide anonymity and amazing that so many people naively think they can rely on them.

I think my concluding point was that if we create an altcoin that does allow for anonymity, it will just end up being used as a mixer for bitcoin.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: theonewhowaskazu on November 08, 2013, 08:01:51 PM
The issue I have with PoS is that a bank that has the most amount of money will have the biggest stake, and we already have that system, and examples of the results.

Why is anonymity being brought up as an argument against bitcoin? Anonymity is a feature, which can simply be built on top of the underlying bitcoin protocol. We already have a few propozals, like zericoin and coinjoin. And if a "cryptocurrency" is built that implements anonymity, but the only use it has it to be used in conjunction with bitcoin to add anonymity, then I wouldn't even call it a separate currency, but simply a Bitcoin plug-in.

Someone also mentioned that there are many coins that are more secure than bitcoin. That is patently false, since to be more secure than bitcoin you have to have a bigger network that secures your system, and more higher-skilled developers that work in your code. There aren't any currencies that have either of those be better than what bitcoin has.

Thats very different than proof of stake.

The main problem with proof of stake is the very first person can effectively turn into a centralized entity if there is any premining whatsoever.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 08:11:16 PM
Problem is that if everyone is not doing IP anonymity correctly, then the mixers aka tumblrs or laundries (you mentioned a few) are useless, because the degree of uncertainty about who owns a coin that comes out the mixer is proportional to the number of coins that don't reveal their identity on any spend downstream.

Also mixers can be honeypotted, employ timing analysis, etc..

Mixers just don't really provide anonymity and amazing that so many people naively think they can rely on them.

I think my concluding point was that if we create an altcoin that does allow for anonymity, it will just end up being used as a mixer for bitcoin.

But the Bitcoin <-> altcoin FX is a mixer, so once they spend on Bitcoin without IP anonymity, then the same points still apply.

They must spend on the altcoin to be safer.

Bitcoin will become known as the government's coin, due to the cartelization of mining and the lack of safe anonymity. It will be the government approved coin. The anonymous altcoin will be the freedom coin.


Speculation follows.

Don't you see the media pushing Bitcoin? This doesn't happen without the permission of the ruling elite. It is my speculation, "they" (rockefeller/rothschilds/kissinger) created Bitcoin. Not the underlings such a Obama and Geithner. Compartmentalization of the underlings.

The government will continue to pretend to be somewhat against it, well for one thing the underlings don't know it is intended to be the next one-world digital currency. The elite don't want us to wake up too soon and realize we've unknowingly handed them the 666 control they want. They are hoping for the "there can only be one" outcome. That is why this thread is so important to me.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 08:48:06 PM
The government will continue to pretend to be somewhat against it, well for one thing the underlings don't know it is intended to be the next one-world digital currency. The elite don't want us to wake up too soon and realize we've unknowingly handed them the 666 control they want. They are hoping for the "there can only be one" outcome. That is why this thread is so important to me.
Damm, you seem to be even more paranoid than me ...  :P

What's actually your position on bitcoin/alts? What alts do you find interresting to invest in now?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 09:42:32 PM
I am most interested in using an altcoin, and none have IP anonymity. Anoncoin uses I2P darknet, which is low-latency thus not what I am willing to trust with large quantity of money.

What are these Bitcoin holders thinking? They have capital gains and if they are not reporting them to the tax authorities, yet they are not anonymous and it is all being recorded!!!

I will invest in what I can use, which is why I want to use it (for investment and shielding capital from the coming wave of confiscation), i.e. they are inseparable from my perspective.

So thus I haven't looked at other altcoins to evaluate them for investment, only to evaluate if their PoW is CPU-only and to make some analysis of PoS as a concept.

I arrived late to the party Spring of this year, because I was formerly investing in silver and I had ignored Tom Szabo's (of silveraxis.com) email discussions attempting to turn me on to Bitcoin back in 2010, 2011, or when ever it was.

Or maybe my memory is foggy and I am conflating him with Nick Szabo and perhaps someone had emailed his writings (http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2011/05/bitcoin-what-took-ye-so-long.html).

I also knew rpietila from Finland (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=68520) from my silver investing and he now publicizes that he owns 10,000 bitcoins. He raised my awareness again this past Spring.

I had been trying to think of how to decentralize gold and silver transactions, and eventually gave up around 2010 or 2011. So many emails and posts were flying around my world, but I had sort of shut it all off, after burning out given I entered that education process learning about how the world really works starting about 2005 when I could sense that something was wrong (I guess it really started 9/11/2001 but took a while to really sink in)

As early as 2006, I was thinking about P2P, given I am a programmer and computer scientist.

P.S. I turned against silver and liquidated. Entirely useless and hassles, if you aren't in the liquid markets of USA or say Hong Kong. I think one of my frustrated posts in 2010 or 2011 was "how can you travel with this shit".


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 08, 2013, 09:43:23 PM
I am most interested in using an altcoin, and none have IP anonymity.

The question is if this is actually possible and worth waiting for.

Tor and I2P seem to be safe now, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been already compromised. The Allies used to sent ships in certain death just to protect the secret that they can encrypt Enigma, so I'd really wonder if any of them would be safe if they really want to grab some coins.


They must spend on the altcoin to be safer.

Bitcoin will become known as the government's coin, due to the cartelization of mining and the lack of safe anonymity. It will be the government approved coin. The anonymous altcoin will be the freedom coin.
Why is spending altcoins safer?

Freedom coin sounds so patriotic, how about terrorist coin or child molerster coin ...



Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 09:59:48 PM
I am most interested in using an altcoin, and none have IP anonymity.

The question is if this is actually possible and worth waiting for.

I've written down an algorithm.

Tor and I2P seem to be safe now, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been already compromised.

Bruce Schneier wrote about they are already coopted by the NSA some where:

https://www.schneier.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-search.cgi?tag=surveillance

I wouldn't trust them. Not reporting your stuff to the authorities and not being anonymous means jail time and bankruptcy in this coming G20 crackdown as the sovereigns go into sovereign debt crisis spiral.

The Allies used to sent ships in certain death just to protect the secret that they can encrypt Enigma, so I'd really wonder if any of them would be safe if they really want to grab some coins.

I highly doubt the NSA hasn't been able to crack Tor given it is well documented that a global adversary can in theory crack every low-latency mix-net using timing analysis. And Tor only uses 3 hops.

They must spend on the altcoin to be safer.

Bitcoin will become known as the government's coin, due to the cartelization of mining and the lack of safe anonymity. It will be the government approved coin. The anonymous altcoin will be the freedom coin.
Why is spending altcoins safer?

Spending on the coin that has built-in Bitmessage-like anonymity (not low-latency) will ensure that your IP is not connected with the spend and thus the coin and all its ancestors. If you spend it on Bitcoin, then your IP address will not be shielded (even if you use Tor) and as well since everyone else's IP is not, then using a mixer doesn't surely help.

Freedom coin sounds so patriotic, how about terrorist coin or child molerster coin ...

We have that any way, even with fiat. You can buy a child now in South Asia and Africa (probably also South and Central America) with local fiat.

Since you are anonymous, they can't say it was you.

Whereas if you use Bitcoin and your identity gets entangled with a prior owner of the coin (something that can't happen with cash or fiat banking), you could be false accused. The issue of taint is a serious insoluble problem for Bitcoin and the holders will demand government intervention at some point to get relief.

There is no viability for freedom with Bitcoin. It is going to kill all freedom long-term, even though it provides the illusion of increasing freedom short-term while the incriminating evidence mounts in the public ledger.

I think it is insane to use a non-anonymous coin like Bitcoin.

At least get your virgin coins from mining, but you can't even get these now unless you are in a country where you can buy an ASIC. And then you still need to prove that the spend was not to yourself, when you offload the coins. Be sure your government approved exchange can prove it and records aren't lost, etc..


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 08, 2013, 10:35:45 PM
I highly doubt the NSA hasn't been able to crack Tor given it is well documented that a global adversary can in theory crack every low-latency mix-net using timing analysis. And Tor only uses 3 hops.

I still don't get your view on this. Even if they somehow manage to have such a massive amount of control over Tor that they can determine where a packet of data originated on the tor network, it does not prove or even imply that the transaction belongs to the originating connection. That is a preposterous presumption to make of a distributed shared file. Hell, I could imagine that even if the NSA was watching every local connection for everyone, this would be easily defeated by pseudo/fake Tor peers that occasionally feed each other nonsense data. How are they going to prove it? "We control every single node and we know that that isn't one of them?" That could be foiled by occasionally sending real data among the nonsense data.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 11:10:02 PM
I highly doubt the NSA hasn't been able to crack Tor given it is well documented that a global adversary can in theory crack every low-latency mix-net using timing analysis. And Tor only uses 3 hops.

I still don't get your view on this. Even if they somehow manage to have such a massive amount of control over Tor that they can determine where a packet of data originated on the tor network, it does not prove or even imply that the transaction belongs to the originating connection. That is a preposterous presumption to make of a distributed shared file. Hell, I could imagine that even if the NSA was watching every local connection for everyone, this would be easily defeated by pseudo/fake Tor peers that occasionally feed each other nonsense data. How are they going to prove it? "We control every single node and we know that that isn't one of them?" That could be foiled by occasionally sending real data among the nonsense data.

You don't understand that all low-latency networks are vulnerable to timing attacks if the attacker can see the traffic between each peer on the network. They don't need to decrypt the traffic, they just need to see the timing. This is well proven in research papers that have analyzed Tor. Tor even admits this.

The governments can see all the traffic on the internet. They have taps on all the main lines.

Also Bruce Scheier documented other attacks NSA has against Tor, such as a weakness they exploited in the Firefox browser.

There is no way the national security agencies are going to allow themselves to be blinded. The NSA is spending something like $50 billion. Do you even fathom what that can buy in terms of hacking?

Timing analysis can't be defeated with random sends, because the pattern of the random can be identified statistically from the non-random. Low-latency is the problem. High-latency mix-nets are much more resistant to timing analysis.

If this was an easy problem to solve, Tor would have solved it instead of admitting they can't.

Do you think they built that gazillion terabyte storage facility in Utah to mop up data they can't discern.

The NSA has attacks against SSL and HTTPS too, but that is an orthogonal issue.

Also some people has thought the Tor relays are honeypots. How can you prove they are not! You can't. Who is paying to give away all those free servers and bandwidth?

Add links:

https://www.google.com/search?q=tor+timing+attack

https://blog.torproject.org/blog/one-cell-enough


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 08, 2013, 11:17:12 PM
You don't understand that all low-latency networks are vulnerable to timing attacks if the attacker can see the traffic between each peer on the network. They don't need to decrypt the traffic, they just need to see the timing. This is well proven in research papers that have analyzed Tor. Tor even admits this.

And this is completely irrelevant in the case of a distributed shared file. No one is trying to hide anything except for a tiny little portion that they do not want attributed to them. They DO need to be able to decrypt the traffic if they want to know what transaction originated from where.

Tor is perfectly acceptable for anonymizing transactions. Why you don't see this is beyond me. And the trade-off for high latency is an unusable network for commerce, at least of the face to face variety. In that case, only criminals are likely to use such a system making the target much juicier.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 08, 2013, 11:17:48 PM
Also some people has thought the Tor relays are honeypots. How can you prove they are not! You can't. Who is paying to give away all those free servers and bandwidth?

SO WHAT? The relays do not know what the data is!


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rassah on November 08, 2013, 11:19:20 PM
Don't you see the media pushing Bitcoin? This doesn't happen without the permission of the ruling elite. It is my speculation, "they" (rockefeller/rothschilds/kissinger) created Bitcoin. Not the underlings such a Obama and Geithner. Compartmentalization of the underlings.

The government will continue to pretend to be somewhat against it, well for one thing the underlings don't know it is intended to be the next one-world digital currency. The elite don't want us to wake up too soon and realize we've unknowingly handed them the 666 control they want. They are hoping for the "there can only be one" outcome. That is why this thread is so important to me.

My apologies, I did not realize that you were a crazy person. Cary on.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 11:23:02 PM
My apologies, I did not realize that you were a crazy person. Cary on.

Character assassination is what losers revert too when they can't present a cogent argument. Your prior comment was weak logic which I refuted, so then come back and character assassinate to get revenge. You take advantage of where I decided to shift from pure logic to speculation.

You decided not to quote where I wrote "Speculation follows". Speculation is not a statement of fact.

You clearly are biased for Bitcoin and will say anything to protect Bitcoin, while ignoring reality.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 11:26:16 PM
You don't understand that all low-latency networks are vulnerable to timing attacks if the attacker can see the traffic between each peer on the network. They don't need to decrypt the traffic, they just need to see the timing. This is well proven in research papers that have analyzed Tor. Tor even admits this.

And this is completely irrelevant in the case of a distributed shared file. No one is trying to hide anything except for a tiny little portion that they do not want attributed to them. They DO need to be able to decrypt the traffic if they want to know what transaction originated from where.

Tor is perfectly acceptable for anonymizing transactions. Why you don't see this is beyond me. And the trade-off for high latency is an unusable network for commerce, at least of the face to face variety. In that case, only criminals are likely to use such a system making the target much juicier.

No Tor is not acceptable. See below.

There is another option that is not high-latency that eliminates timing attacks. It is a Bitmessage way of mixing, but that can't work for Tor's general application to web browsing. It can work for an altcoin.

Also some people has thought the Tor relays are honeypots. How can you prove they are not! You can't. Who is paying to give away all those free servers and bandwidth?

SO WHAT? The relays do not know what the data is!

The data goes on a public ledger. It is decrypted. Even if you send it over SSL to the mining peer or pool, then you have the problem of trusting that peer or pool is not a honeypot. And currently I don't believe Bitcoin uses SSL for that any way.

If you can correlate via timing analysis, then you know which data that is going on the public ledger correlated to which IP address that originally sent into the first relay.

With only 3 hops, if all 3 are honeypotted, they don't even need timing analysis.

You really haven't thought this through.

Now what you say?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 08, 2013, 11:43:11 PM
The data goes on a public ledger. It is decrypted.

And the gigantic point that you miss is that the originator of the transaction is lost in the noise. With basic protocol encryption, the NSA would have to not only be watching your connection, but they would have to BE every peer you are connected to on the "clear net" so that they can isolate the incoming tx that you see and retransmit, then they would have to control a vast majority of every bridge or relay in the tor network to ensure that they control each hop you use (which is astronomically unlikely if the client acts as a tor bridge--unless the NSA is the only one using it, you're fairly safe).

What in the ever loving fuck are they going to do? Control every bit of data, crunch all the numbers and put it in a tidy box for the IRS to examine and send a tax bill? What happens if people start opening up their wireless connections for transactions? What happens if KimDotCom (or insert random person with wealth and anti-establishment values) creates a tor hidden service and says "send me your tx, I will forward them on"? They will now need to control every piece of tor infrastructure and his service.

The NSA does not have the ability to suppress this or do whatever it is you've gotten into your mind that they can do. Not without destroying the internet, the tool they have fallen so deeply in love with.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 08, 2013, 11:56:16 PM
The data goes on a public ledger. It is decrypted.

And the gigantic point that you miss is that the originator of the transaction is lost in the noise. With basic protocol encryption, the NSA would have to not only be watching your connection, but they would have to BE every peer you are connected to on the "clear net" so that they can isolate the incoming tx that you see and retransmit, then they would have to control a vast majority of every bridge or relay in the tor network to ensure that they control each hop you use (which is astronomically unlikely if the client acts as a tor bridge--unless the NSA is the only one using it, you're fairly safe).

Incorrect. For a timing attack, they only need to see the traffic passing between each node in the Tor network. And I asserted already, the governments tap all the traffic on the internet that passes over trunk lines (which is most of it). And you can be sure they are extra diligent to tap all traffic between Tor nodes.

They don't need to BE every peer. Not at all. You apparently don't understand how the timing attack works. Read the research if you doubt my assertion.

What in the ever loving fuck are they going to do? Control every bit of data, crunch all the numbers and put it in a tidy box for the IRS to examine and send a tax bill?

Yes. Especially those liberty loving 350,000 of us who have now clearly identified ourselves. That is only a very small percentage of the world's population. We will be tagged as "tax evaders" especially at the time the governments are going bankrupt and need revenues to pay the welfare checks and free healthcare for the rest of the masses who won't be targeted by this surveillance.

What happens if people start opening up their wireless connections for transactions?

You can't get a SIMM card in most countries without giving ID.

If you mean Ham radio, that is not going to happen. All radio operators are licensed.

The NSA does not have the ability to suppress this or do whatever it is you've gotten into your mind that they can do. Not without destroying the internet, the tool they have fallen so deeply in love with.

Yes they do. You are denying the facts.

Sorry to bring a dose of reality-check to your fantasy world. Better you wake up now.

You must have missed the links to the videos I provided upthread. Here is that post again:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279650.msg3497509#msg3497509


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: mvidetto on November 09, 2013, 12:00:26 AM
It should be noted that if for some reason bitcoin fails, we would need an alt currency to take its place.  Bitcoin 2.0 or something which corrects the flaws created by the currency and brings the cryptocurrency to a whole new level.  Of course I would never want bitcoin to fail, but just as the most secure systems in the world are eventually cracked, bitcoin may fall as well.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 12:02:16 AM
It should be noted that if for some reason bitcoin fails, we would need an alt currency to take its place.  Bitcoin 2.0 or something which corrects the flaws created by the currency and brings the cryptocurrency to a whole new level.  Of course I would never want bitcoin to fail, but just as the most secure systems in the world are eventually cracked, bitcoin may fall as well.

Agreed.

And the NSA doesn't tell you when they've cracked. We went through the entire 1980s when they had cracked all encryption using differential cryptography analysis methods, and nobody knew it!!!

So why would these two guys be arguing here against having a more securely anonymous coin then? Hmmm. Etlase2 why are you are arguing against improvement of the anonymity?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 12:07:03 AM
Incorrect. For a timing attack, they only need to see the traffic passing between each node in the Tor network.

You do not have a grasp on the situation here. I'll leave it at that.

Hmmm. Etlase2 why are you are arguing against improvement of the anonymity?

Hmmm. AnonyMint, why are you so scared? May I imply that you are a criminal in various ways?

PS - For crying out loud, stop editing your posts.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 12:12:24 AM
Incorrect. For a timing attack, they only need to see the traffic passing between each node in the Tor network.

You do not have a grasp on the situation here. I'll leave it at that.

That is not acceptable in technical debate. Refute with technical argument.

I do understand very well. You have not shown yet that you understand the technical issue.

Hmmm. Etlase2 why are you are arguing against improvement of the anonymity?

Hmmm. AnonyMint, why are you so scared? May I imply that you are a criminal in various ways?

Why are you accusing me of being a criminal?!!! Damn it that almost deserves reporting you to the moderator!

Did you fail to read what I wrote upthread? That I don't want to have to prove that some criminal who used my coin before or after I held it, was not me or not involved with me somehow (i.e. me as his financier)! Because that is not going to be easy in every case.

Also because of the Admiralty laws, governments can confiscate all money that was involved with a crime, even if you prove you were not involved.

And because the governments are going to taxing left and right, including wealth taxes and capital gains taxes. You will not retain your savings past 2020. You will be wiped out. This is the plan and the way global bankruptcy is always resolved in history.

PS - For crying out loud, stop editing your posts.

You know very well with me to wait 5 minutes or so, because I think of edits until I am satisfied with what I wrote.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 12:20:48 AM
Why are you accusing me of being a criminal?!!! Damn it that almost deserves reporting you to the moderator!

Did you fail to read what I wrote upthread? That I don't want to have to prove that some criminal who used my coin before or after I held it, was not me or not involved with me somehow (i.e. me as his financier)! Because that is not going to be easy in every case.

Also because of the Admiralty laws, governments can confiscate all money that was involved with a crime, even if you prove you were not involved.

http://www.nestmann.com/civil-forfeiture-of-cash-it-could-happen-to-you

Quote
Proving that your cash is connected to a crime is surprisingly easy to demonstrate. That's because 97% or more of cash circulating today contains tiny concentrations of narcotics residues—primarily cocaine. All police need to do is to bring in a drug-sniffing dog to inspect the cash.  If the dog alerts, police seize the cash. And, under civil forfeiture rules, it's up to you to prove that the cash has a legitimate origin.

Consider the case of Emiliano Gomez Gonzolez. During a traffic stop, Nebraska state troopers asked Gonzolez for permission to search his vehicle. During the search, the troopers found bundles of currency totaling $124,700. Based on a dog sniff, police seized all the money.

Gonzolez contested the forfeiture in court. Prosecutors neither convicted nor accused Gomez or any of the other owners of the seized cash of any crime. Nor did police find any drugs, drug paraphernalia, or drug records connected to the cash. Despite these facts, a federal appeals court upheld the confiscation of every dollar found in the vehicle.

In thousands of cases across the United States each year, police follow the same pattern. In a search of someone's home or vehicle, they discover a significant quantity of cash. They then bring in a dog to sniff the cash for the presence of drug residues. The dog alerts virtually 100% of the time. This supposedly gives police probable cause to seize the cash under state or federal civil forfeiture laws.

Owners of property subject to civil forfeiture find themselves in an Alice-in-Wonderland legal landscape where the property seized is accused of a crime, rather than the owner. The owners must follow obscure rules that originate in Admiralty law, with which most attorneys aren't familiar. Under these rules, the seized property is presumed guilty, and it's up to its owner to demonstrate that the property is innocent. (Yes, it's bizarre, but it's the law!) Since obtaining legal representation in a civil forfeiture case typically requires a legal retainer of $10,000 or more, most victims of this vicious procedure never contest the seizure.

In an era of across-the-board cutbacks in public spending, civil forfeitures are a lucrative funding source for cash-strapped agencies and states. Last year, the federal government seized more than $4 billion under civil forfeiture laws, more than twice the take in 2011.

And don't forget the lesson learned from MF Global, i.e. clawbacks they can go back and get money from you that you are already disposed of.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 12:39:01 AM
That is not acceptable in technical debate. Refute with technical argument.

You mean like "well bruce schneier sez!!!"?

Quote
Did you fail to read what I wrote upthread? That I don't want to have to prove that some criminal who used my coin before or after I held it, was not me or not involved with me somehow

Sorry, but this fails the smell test. It is a manufactured argument for pushing an agenda. Crypto accounts can't be frozen, and they are difficult and sometimes impossible to confiscate (lol let's raid EVERYBODY!!), let alone prove that you are in possession of them.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 12:43:32 AM
That is not acceptable in technical debate. Refute with technical argument.

You mean like "well bruce schneier sez!!!"?

The timing attacks research has been done by numerous different researchers from numerous prestigious universities and numerous confirmations. It is all peer reviewed. Go read the research papers so you are not ignorant on this.

Quote
Did you fail to read what I wrote upthread? That I don't want to have to prove that some criminal who used my coin before or after I held it, was not me or not involved with me somehow

Sorry, but this fails the smell test. It is a manufactured argument for pushing an agenda.

An agenda of strong IP anonymity which is only going to help us. Manufactured from reality only. Even if you don't believe there is much risk, why not protect yourself and be sure?

Sounds to me like you have some agenda to prevent us from being sure. Why?

Crypto accounts can't be frozen, and they are difficult and sometimes impossible to confiscate (lol let's raid EVERYBODY!!), let alone prove that you are in possession of them.

If they've identified the current holder of the coin, they can compel you to give your password or throw you in maximum security prison (hell on earth) for contempt of court until you do (as they did for 7 years to Martin Armstrong in the USA).

Also because of the MF Global precedent of "clawbacks", they don't need to confiscate the coin, they can confiscate everything else you have as a replacement, even if you already disposed of the original holding that is involved.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 12:48:28 AM
Any idea how much drug trading is going on with Bitcoins? And money laundering?

I will say it again. I wouldn't own large holdings of Bitcoin if you paid me to do so! These large Bitcoin holders even if they dispose of their Bitcoins are potentially screwed for life, unless they were virgin mined and they never dispose of them (that would be safe).

With strong IP anonymity built-in to the altcoin, I would buy it like hotcakes. And I am hoping I will be able to soon.

I hoping someone will implement my ideas. I have algorithms if any one is serious to implement, contact me in PM.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 01:52:18 AM
The timing attacks research has been done by numerous different researchers from numerous prestigious universities and numerous confirmations. It is all peer reviewed. Go read the research papers so you are not ignorant on this.

AnonyMint, I am not going to write a whitepaper whenever I need to make an argument for you. This has already taken up way too much time. First you imply that there is some ulterior motive behind disliking your anonymizing design with your loaded question, then jump to the conclusion that I am uneducated about timing attacks based on a jab at your resort to appealing to authority.

A P2P transaction network interfacing with tor is *not* the same as your typical (lol what?) tor user scenario. No, I'm not going to hold your hand until you understand the implications of this.

Quote
Even if you don't believe there is much risk, why not protect yourself and be sure?

Because *I* have a much more idealistic outlook on life-after-cryptocurrency (NB: It is insanely unfortunate that the first had to be designed like Bitcoin). You can think the way you do, but the problem with that is that it doesn't matter what gidget you come up with to anonymize the network, shit is going to hit the mother f***ing fan. There is no winning here.

If you sacrifice liberty for security... (do I need to finish this sentence or is the ellipsis enough?) Liberty being very loosely defined as the utility and accessibility of the network. Cheap, fast, scalable are properties that are of paramount importance to anonymity. And IF you can find a way to increase anonymity via increasing difficulty/cost with little affect on those who do not want it or need it, then you allow a happy medium between both needs and, imo, have the best chance of achieving what I think is roughly the same goal between us.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 03:20:04 AM
A P2P transaction network interfacing with tor is *not* the same as your typical (lol what?) tor user scenario. No, I'm not going to hold your hand until you understand the implications of this.

I already explained the lack of anonymity with Tor against a global entity. Which both Tor and Tails admit in their warnings. Some other use cases of Tor are not threatened by such a global entity. Our use case is.

Quote
Even if you don't believe there is much risk, why not protect yourself and be sure?

... it doesn't matter what gidget you come up with to anonymize the network, shit is going to hit the mother f***ing fan. There is no winning here.

I would prefer to defend myself against the coming SHTF.

If you sacrifice liberty for security... (do I need to finish this sentence or is the ellipsis enough?) Liberty being very loosely defined as the utility and accessibility of the network.

I don't need the properties of the network to degrade in order to get strong IP anonymity. The key to achieving this is not use a general purpose web browsing anonymizer like Tor, and instead build-in a special purpose design for the coin.

Cheap, fast, scalable are properties that are of paramount importance to anonymity. And IF you can find a way to increase anonymity via increasing difficulty/cost with little affect on those who do not want it or need it, then you allow a happy medium between both needs and, imo, have the best chance of achieving what I think is roughly the same goal between us.

Agreed. So I don't know why you are against improving the anonymity. I guess you assume it will be slow, expensive, and not scalable.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: JessicaSe on November 09, 2013, 03:37:41 AM
The real problem with altcoins is they can go up really fast and they can died all of sudden. Its risk vs reward...


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 03:51:18 AM
I already explained the lack of anonymity with Tor against a global entity.

No, you didn't, you regurgitated what someone else said.

Quote
Some other use cases of Tor are not threatened by such a global entity. Our use case is.

If done correctly, it is precisely the opposite. The common man Tor use case will make it magnitudes more effective.

Quote
Defeatist. I would prefer to defend myself against the coming SHTF.

Rationalize all you want, hose beats crypto. So does surveillance.

Quote
The key to achieving this is not use a general purpose web browsing anonymizer like Tor, and instead build-in a special purpose design for the coin.

Tor is not a web browsing anonymizer. Belittling it in such a way means that either your understanding of it is poor, or it is an attempt to manufacture a reason for your case, again. Neither choice leaves me impressed.

Quote
Agreed. So I don't know why you are against improving the anonymity. I guess you assume it will be slow, expensive, and not scalable.

I am against you wasting your time on pursuits that are not that useful.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 04:02:11 AM
Etlase2, you try win arguments by talking endlessly without ever saying anything, i.e. filibuster.

If you have something concrete to say instead of talking around the topic and in circles, then I will be willing to listen.

Some other use cases of Tor are not threatened by such a global entity. Our use case is.

If done correctly, it is precisely the opposite. The common man Tor use case will make it magnitudes more effective.

I guess you want us to read your mind.

I think I know what you are thinking, and you are incorrect in your assessment.

Quote
Defeatist. I would prefer to defend myself against the coming SHTF.

Rationalize all you want, hose beats crypto. So does surveillance.

Orthogonal threats. I want my crypto anonymity.

Quote
The key to achieving this is not use a general purpose web browsing anonymizer like Tor, and instead build-in a special purpose design for the coin.

Tor is not a web browsing anonymizer. Belittling it in such a way means that either your understanding of it is poor, or it is an attempt to manufacture a reason for your case, again. Neither choice leaves me impressed.

It is low-latency because it is designed to support the general purpose interactive things such as web browsing as one example.

It is not optimal anonymity for our use case.

Quote
Agreed. So I don't know why you are against improving the anonymity. I guess you assume it will be slow, expensive, and not scalable.

I am against you wasting your time on pursuits that are not that useful.

Is Bitmessage a waste of time?

If not, then please shut up or be very specific, because you are wasting my time with this nonsense.

P.S. I suppose you entirely missed the point that coin mixers are useless unless everyone is using IP anonymity, i.e. it is built-in. That is one reason it is useful. The other reason is Bitmessage is more surely and reliably anonymous than Tor is.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: mrhelpful on November 09, 2013, 04:14:48 AM
The real problem with altcoins is they can go up really fast and they can died all of sudden. Its risk vs reward...

Isnt this how bitcoin started? or am I wrong..


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 04:25:28 AM
I guess you want us to read your mind.

I think I know what you are thinking, and you are incorrect in your assessment.

Is Bitmessage a waste of time?

Over and over and over and over and over again. If you would stop for one second and drop the megalomania, we could possibly go somewhere. But nothing ever works for you but you. I try to pry you open, but you shut tighter, so there is no point and I am just wasting my time yet again. I guess I don't learn either.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rassah on November 09, 2013, 05:15:29 AM
My apologies, I did not realize that you were a crazy person. Cary on.

Character assassination is what losers revert too when they can't present a cogent argument. Your prior comment was weak logic which I refuted, so then come back and character assassinate to get revenge.

Not at all. Your argument was, eh, ok, and I thought of refuting it, but then you waded into crazy, and I decided not to bother.

Quote
You decided not to quote where I wrote "Speculation follows". Speculation is not a statement of fact.

My bad, I mistook that line to refer to the prior paragraph. But it was some deep crazy you were speculatively wading in. We have a lot of members here who are in that part of the pool, and it's easy to get lost in that crowd. Besides, your speculation was presented as your opinion of how things are. Not my fault it sounded crazy.

Quote
You clearly are biased for Bitcoin and will say anything to protect Bitcoin, while ignoring reality.

I am quite a realist (just ask the people in the religious threads  ;D) I'm not biased for Bitcoin, I just don't see anything that can challenge it in any way, yet.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 05:34:14 AM
You decided not to quote where I wrote "Speculation follows". Speculation is not a statement of fact.

My bad, I mistook that line to refer to the prior paragraph. But it was some deep crazy you were speculatively wading in. We have a lot of members here who are in that part of the pool, and it's easy to get lost in that crowd. Besides, your speculation was presented as your opinion of how things are. Not my fault it sounded crazy.

I suppose it was on-the-feral-side-of crazy in Rome when the population fell from 1.4 million to 30,000 and stayed that low for 1000+ years. Are you asserting such events never happen?

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/populationofrome.jpg

Are you aware of the things government did during the fall of Rome:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/anatomy-of-a-debt-crisis/

So why are the limbs of statues littered all over the countryside, (http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/27/are-we-head-to-a-mad-max-scenario/) if crazy, feral outcomes never occur?

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/constantine-bust-r-e1364400600146.jpg?resize=350%2C521

Because if you are going throw around a loaded word like that, you should be able to at least provide some rationale for what is crazy and what is not crazy?

Now I really want to see how you can respond in a rational way to that challenge I just gave you.

I think it is crazy that Bitcoin was created by some entities named "Satoshi" we can't identify, yet we blindly trust it even though it has cartelized mining by design.

I think it is crazy that Bitcoin accommodates drug dealing and money laundering which can taint all our coins, yet it was designed to not have anonymity built-in.

You clearly are biased for Bitcoin and will say anything to protect Bitcoin, while ignoring reality.

I am quite a realist (just ask the people in the religious threads  ;D) I'm not biased for Bitcoin, I just don't see anything that can challenge it in any way, yet.

I agree there is nothing that can challenge yet. Several of us have pointed out that we don't think an altcoin has to defeat Bitcoin in order to be viable.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 05:45:09 AM
I guess you want us to read your mind.

I think I know what you are thinking, and you are incorrect in your assessment.

Is Bitmessage a waste of time?

Over and over and over and over and over again. If you would stop for one second and drop the megalomania, we could possibly go somewhere. But nothing ever works for you but you. I try to pry you open, but you shut tighter, so there is no point and I am just wasting my time yet again. I guess I don't learn either.

Okay maybe the underlying issue for you is that the type of anonymity I am proposing for an altcoin perhaps won't work with your Decrits design, so maybe that is why you are trying to convince us we don't need it?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 10:46:38 AM
The real problem with altcoins is they can go up really fast and they can died all of sudden. Its risk vs reward...

Isnt this how bitcoin started? or am I wrong..

My thought is that if you really believe in the altcoin, you will put some of your money there for safe-keeping, because you trust its future more than Bitcoin. And just like with Bitcoin, there will be numerous perilous plunges in the price, which should be seen as buying opportunities, because the others will not stop coming to realize what you realized.

So the key is are the features of that altcoin compelling enough to cause you and others to strongly prefer it over Bitcoin.

For me personally, without built-in strong IP anonymity I won't even consider an altcoin seriously, because I understand the taint issue is assured death of bitcoin down the line (or morphed into something we wouldn't recognize as a decentralized currency any more). And there is no such altcoin, not even anoncoin has a strong form in my analysis (and I told them about it and they are aware of it).

And I will also not take seriously any altcoin that doesn't fix the ballooning blockchain and resultant cartelization of mining which also due to not being CPU-only PoW or PoS.

What are readers thoughts on this and are there any required features I have failed to mention? Feel free to disagree with me of course. This isn't my thread. Apologies for so many posts.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 11:07:37 AM
Etlase2, I am thinking about what you wrote that everything is going to f---ed up, where you were implying that anonymity couldn't really solve every problem and that we shouldn't expend too much effort there nor inconvenience ourselves because you implied it won't be our savior.

I am thinking privacy is fundamental to private property. The only way for private property to survive against the crazy devolution of society that always occurs with widespread economic failure and defaults, is for the private property to be mobile and well private.

Gold was never marked with your identity. And cryptocurrency will not be a better gold for as long as it is.

Anonymity is thus non-negotiable. We either have it, or we don't have anything.

Even in a normally functioning society, taint is a very big problem if the money carries your identity or traces of crime in a decentralized system like cash or bitcoin, at least for gold it can't even carry a drug residue like paper cash can. Issues range from the ones I already wrote about upthread, to even identity theft. Even with a credit card, you run some risk of your identity being stolen and used for nefarious activities.

Many Bitcoin users may think this doesn't affect them, and again I ask them what percentage of the trade in Bitcoin is drug dealing, money laundering, crony Chinese officials moving money offshore, etc??


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 09, 2013, 11:50:51 AM
What are readers thoughts on this and are there any required features I have failed to mention? Feel free to disagree with me of course. This isn't my thread. Apologies for so many posts.

I wouldn't say Anonymity* is a must have for an altcoin to succeed (against bitcoin), but it would be nice to have.
Not so sure about it anymore

On the other features I'm more strict. A crypto without POS and POW rewards can't ever beat bitcoin longterm.

That's not due to security issues or programming, but economical problems. It's a difference to work or paying someone to work for new coins and having to to buy them directly. POW is also nessasary because it provides additional coins to everyone and makes them physilogically easier to spend. It gives exponential growth and IMHO without exponential growth currencies can't work.

Exponential growth is no problem as long everyone can participate.

In short:
POS rewards earlier adopters while new POW rewards prevent newcomers to get screwd by early adopters. Once PPC has moved to POS only it will be very hard for new people to get coins. Prices will rise, ok that looks good, but real value of all coins doesn't. That's like having a really expensive collection of all paintings from one painter, sell one and it's a million, but sell all and you won't get much ...

Finding paramets on this will be extremly problematic, since early adopters expect rising prices of one unit.

EDITED


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 03:54:12 PM
The only way for private property to survive against the crazy devolution of society that always occurs with widespread economic failure and defaults, is for the private property to be mobile and well private.

But this is wrong. Private property isn't going to survive a crazy devolution of society. That's why it's a crazy devolution of society. If the establishment kicks and screams so hard to stop it, there is nothing to be done for western society. As I mentioned previously to you in a PM, it becomes time for the "3rd world" economies to take the reign where the governments have much less power. They can't go after everybody, so anything that is a hindrance to adoption by everybody slows down the possibility of a quick and hopefully less painful switch.

Quote
Even in a normally functioning society, taint is a very big problem if the money carries your identity or traces of crime in a decentralized system like cash or bitcoin, at least for gold it can't even carry a drug residue like paper cash can. Issues range from the ones I already wrote about upthread, to even identity theft. Even with a credit card, you run some risk of your identity being stolen and used for nefarious activities.

Coin taint is only an issue with a transaction ledger--less so with the "mini-blockchain" but still there. Rather than square pegging the round hole, the universally better design of the account ledger solves it natively.

Additionally, in lieu of "sending coins", one can simply send accounts by changing keys. Following this principle, it is impossible to follow more than one hop in an account's life without rubber hosing each person down the line. If done correctly, it is impossible to know how much was even sent.

As far as IP anonymity, the NSA cannot be everyone. Timing attacks on tor cannot isolate individual transactions from the noise. With a healthy mix of clear net and tor nodes, very good IP anonymity is possible with very little effort (and those who wish for greater privacy help those who don't care!). And, if they do catch something, all they have is the tiniest window of information that is stopped in its tracks at the next account change. And of course for those who need even more, there are more precautions that can be taken. But the protocol should not be designed to cater to them.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 05:33:24 PM
The only way for private property to survive against the crazy devolution of society that always occurs with widespread economic failure and defaults, is for the private property to be mobile and well private.

But this is wrong. Private property isn't going to survive a crazy devolution of society. That's why it's a crazy devolution of society. If the establishment kicks and screams so hard to stop it, there is nothing to be done for western society.

Private wealth surely won't like your altcoin then if crazy devolution comes!

Some private wealth escaping is the only thing that stops a 600 year Dark Age from reigning every where. While Rome fell for 1000 years, Eastern Byzantine did not.

Your logic is too binary. There are gradients of result and strong IP anonymity helps those who want to move to where the freedom is.

We were additionally talking about dealing with coin taint in a normal functioning society (non-devolutionary) case.

As I mentioned previously to you in a PM, it becomes time for the "3rd world" economies to take the reign where the governments have much less power.

Exactly. And anonymity helps capital move there.

They can't go after everybody, so anything that is a hindrance to adoption by everybody slows down the possibility of a quick and hopefully less painful switch.

I never proposed implementing anonymity that added any hindrance whatsoever. It should be even easier and less intrusive than Tor. And I've written down such an algorithm already. Serious implementators can PM me.

Quote
Even in a normally functioning society, taint is a very big problem if the money carries your identity or traces of crime in a decentralized system like cash or bitcoin, at least for gold it can't even carry a drug residue like paper cash can. Issues range from the ones I already wrote about upthread, to even identity theft. Even with a credit card, you run some risk of your identity being stolen and used for nefarious activities.

Coin taint is only an issue with a transaction ledger--less so with the "mini-blockchain" but still there. Rather than square pegging the round hole, the universally better design of the account ledger solves it natively.

Incorrect on both points.

Coin taint is no problem in the ledger if your IP address is never known and you never otherwise reveal your identity on any spend. Thus the ledger alone is not the problem.

And the mini-blockchain solves/improves nothing on taint, because the full history has been saved by someone. It just isn't required to be a full verifying client.

Additionally, in lieu of "sending coins", one can simply send accounts by changing keys.

You mean EXchanging (transferring) the private key.

Following this principle, it is impossible to follow more than one hop in an account's life without rubber hosing each person down the line. If done correctly, it is impossible to know how much was even sent.

That does nothing for solving taint. This can't be anything more than a mixer at best (which I already explained upthread are useless without EVERYONE using IP anonymity and otherwise not revealing their identity), and at worst it is simply the recipient using your private key to transfer to a new address.

Also it isn't secure until the receiving party sends it to a new address and 6 or so blocks have elapsed.

You still need IP anonymity when transferring the private key. It is very unlikely you can find a FX exchange bid without going online.

You simply have not thought this out deeply yet.

As far as IP anonymity, the NSA cannot be everyone.

Agreed. But it doesn't help your point.

Timing attacks on tor cannot isolate individual transactions from the noise.

Incorrect. The traffic+timing analysis adversary can, unless the data is encrypted (which it is not on Bitcoin) without any control of any node nor pool nor peer.  Additionally even if encrypted it can be known if the adversary also controls the peer decrypting the data, i.e. the pool server (or the ISP that hosts the pool server). How can you know the pool is safe? You can't. Bitcoin is a target.

With a healthy mix of clear net and tor nodes, very good IP anonymity is possible with very little effort

They are all low-latency (unless you are talkig freenet, which isn't practical for this use case), and thus it doesn't matter how many you chain, traffic+timing analysis still applies for a global adversary such as the NSA.

And, if they do catch something, all they have is the tiniest window of information that is stopped in its tracks at the next account change.

What account change? You mean the exchange of private keys idea which is wrong. Or you mean restarting your Tor session. IN any case, you are wrong sorry.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 05:45:23 PM
Coin taint is no problem in the ledger if your IP address is never known and you never otherwise reveal your identity on any spend. Thus the ledger alone is not the problem.

Disastrously incorrect. Anyone in the line of coin taint who is caught can leave trails to prior coin holders.

Quote
You mean EXchanging (transferring) the private key.

No, for fuck's sake, I don't.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 05:46:45 PM
Coin taint is no problem in the ledger if your IP address is never known and you never otherwise reveal your identity on any spend. Thus the ledger alone is not the problem.

Disastrously incorrect. Anyone in the line of coin taint who is caught can leave trails to prior coin holders.

Logic fail!

But it doesn't matter because they can't identify me if I employed strong IP anonymity (at least not without going to extraordinary measures of tracking me physically or with a virus, etc.).

Quote
You mean EXchanging (transferring) the private key.

No, for fuck's sake, I don't.

Then explain what you mean please. I am eager to hear this hair-brained idea about generating a new key offchain. It can't be secure!


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 05:53:51 PM
Why, so we can continue this game of you thinking you know everything and can prove everything incorrect by saying so? Stop wasting everyone's time including yours and build your wonderful system on top of broken technology. No one's going to validate an idea that you have not proposed. No one (else) is going to code it either.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 05:55:36 PM
All is proven by discussion. If you want to quit, that is okay with me.

I have spent a lot of time thinking and researching on that. If you truly had something important to say, you would explain it clearly.

P.S. I have no ill feelings towards you and you know that.

EDIT: of course whitepapers must come out. And someone can then implement. Or maybe someone will prefer to implement before publishing whitepapers to keep the good ideas secret so they aren't copied by another altcoin first.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Etlase2 on November 09, 2013, 06:10:53 PM
I have spent a lot of time thinking and researching on that. If you truly had something important to say, you would explain it clearly.

No, I wouldn't. I didn't spend over 2 years doing this to give it away. Where is your algorithm, Anonymint? Oh yeah, no where. I've done far more than my fair share of being free with information. You have contributed nothing but ego. And you constantly misinterpret EVERYTHING in a way that you can easily attack (oh, he must mean private keys! I can attack that!). You are a hopeless cause and your stubbornness knows no bounds.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 09, 2013, 06:24:34 PM
Apparently being an amateur musician armed with a guitar and a bus pass can get you 3 hours of interrogation with the TSA and denied entry into the USA (http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/i-was-given-a-full-body-search-by-american-border-guards), because somehow the TSA had information from his private emails. How did they get that info?

Supposed to be allowed 90 days visa-free (http://united-states.visahq.com/requirements/Germany/resident-Germany/).

Naw, we don't need anonymity, and there is no police state. I am delusional for sure.

Etlase2, I would never want to diminish your effort, except by any other reason of necessity. I have no wish for you to fail nor to be arrogant. Let's move forward.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: jubalix on November 09, 2013, 08:48:41 PM
Nails it.

http://themisescircle.org/blog/2013/08/22/the-problem-with-altcoins/

This guy understands very little of tech of money creation

"make moneys rather than to become money"

no one makes money except of a central bank, due to stateist controls, and arguably now bitcoin miners.

further tech does not work that way, it can ealiy be adapted and evolve, and the evolved from takes over the market or a new form.

This works 2 ways eg BTC could absorp in inovation in a way say the aircraft company would struggle to.

It's hard to think or many first movers, retaining the lead in any field, if I am wrong through a few at me.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: ecliptic on November 09, 2013, 11:09:59 PM
There are significant advantages to being able to move money between cryptocurrencies, even if you're only a bitcoin user


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 10, 2013, 07:55:40 PM
I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons (http://www.catb.org/esr/writings/magic-cauldron/magic-cauldron-5.html)) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1. A new 25% attack on PoW (proof-of-work) (http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/) which affects all PoW coins. However, until Bitcoin makes the suggested fix, it is a 1% attack!

2. Pools are subject to the "withholding attack" until the "oblivious share" fix (https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_analysis.pdf#page=29) is added to the blockchain.

3. Bitcoin stops giving coin rewards to miners in 2040, but the rate of debasement drops below 1% by 2033 and gets relatively low by 2020s compared to today's 11% and the recent past of several times that rate. Everyone thinks transaction fees are a solution, but they haven't even really considered this deeply. Transaction fees could be 0% (or refunded if mandatory) by large corporations, e.g. Amazon.com. This would drive most transactions to them, and they might withhold sending these out to other miners. Thus all mining WILL be owned by cartels and banks in the future. This is the same as owned by the government, since in fascism (that we have now in the world), corporations and governments cooperate (just review the NSA scandals with large internet companies revealed by Snowden if you doubt that you already live in a fledgling fascism). Btw, this takeover of mining by corporations was predicted by Satoshi and is supported by the core Bitcoin devs. You can find the relevant post somewhere on this site, I had the link to the post once before.

Note the ballooning multi-GB (eventually to be TBs) blockchain (which the Mini-blockchain design proposes to fix) also leads to either pools or large corporations doing the mining. And not fixing #2 above, means pools can be attacked later. Thus another factor that will drive Bitcoin mining to cartels in the future.

4. Bitcoin relies on anonymity to be provided by external protocols, e.g. Tor or other "clearnet". None of these practically usable "clearnets" are 100% reliably immune to traffic analysis, especially not by a global adversary such as the NSA.

5. Bitcoin can't be mined by regular computers. Any altcoin that fixes this may potentially get millions of new users who download and mine some coin (especially if a pool comes standard). Bitcoin only has 350,000 users in 4 years. That is very slow. A download application which prints new coins will grow much faster the usership. I know from my past experience of growing CoolPage.com from 0 to million users in 2 years back in 1999 - 2001 when the internet was 1/10 the size, i.e. that would be 10+ million in 2 years today.

Any more?

My opinion is that Bitcoin can not fix any of these except #1. #2 because some pools may have proprietary "semi-solutions" which give them an edge on their competitors. #3 because it is ingrained in the selfish-miser-man-is-an-island-goldbug illogic ("no money printing", scarcity of coins = more appreciation) of the community as promoted by Satoshi's white paper. #4 because adding anonymity to Bitcoin would upset the apple-cart of expectations of where Bitcoin lies in the regulatory space. #5 is absolutely impossible to change in Bitcoin.


Thus the OP is lacking perspective of the technical issues. Bitcoin is very vulnerable to competition. Just no one has yet really competed with Bitcoin.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 10, 2013, 10:29:24 PM
I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons (http://www.catb.org/esr/writings/magic-cauldron/magic-cauldron-5.html)) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1.) I don't see any new problems with that at all. I think thats a huge problem if not fixed.
1.+2.) Who expected that mining will allways be cooperative.
4.) Can be seen as advantage aswell. It's better to have the option than be forced to use anonymity. Gov rather not fight crypto if it's trackable.

3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that seems to be not a choice by then.
is nothing we can avoid by then.
If most of all honest* miners agree to stay on one chain and fight (illegal) forks no matter the cost it wouldn't need any changes. Just the announcement would be enough. When most transactions are off chain anyways confirations required could take weeks,d'be damm expensive and must be approved by CA anyways.

A CA wouldn't have the powes todays govs have so I don't see many people protesting. Current bitcoiners excludet, but who are 350.000 people to the world anyways ...

6.) Goverments are stupid, but not the kind of stupid most people think of. Once BTC gets significant it will be overregulated. These regulations will be (as usual) useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general, but alts might be able to adapt to them.


Since this thread is about the problems of altcoins I want to bring in the following real problems. The article in the OP and it's conclusion is biased and not plausible. Please don't argue that most of his busted myths on altcoins aren't actually true. I know that.

1.) Confilicting Requirements
It would have to be innovative and very lucrative for early adopters to reach a critical size to be even noticed. For later adoption it mustn't favour early adopters too much and be conservative.

2.) It's unlikely that bitcoin is flawed
in a way that it will have to be replaced within the next few years. Most flaws won't be noticeable by most people within this decade.

3.) Time and gamechanging innovations are running out.
The timewindow for establishing a new crypto is closing and the most basic features bitcoin lackes are already used by other alts or in development. It will be harder and harder to establish a new crypto in the future.

4.) Regulation
Whem gov finished regulation on bitcoin they will be against anything new that isn't regulated yet. Anonymity could be a requirement by the community and also a reason to outlaw that crypto.

5.) Bubbles and Risk
Price bubles and risk in general are higher on altcoins. Noone ever invested in bitcoin lost money if he just had the patients to stick to it. A serious altcoin bubble could do enourmous damage and won't recover like btc.

6.) You will get super rich, no risk or skill involved
Scamcoins won't always be so primitive and easy to spot. Madoff had stolen billions and a premine isn't the only way to grab some fool's btcs. A succesful scamcoin could keep serious players away from alternative coins.

EDITED
*) I mean they don't doublespend, freeze funds, delay transactions, ...


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rassah on November 11, 2013, 02:56:13 AM
Ah fuck it, I'll take a stab at this

1) Problem was really "discovered" apparently three years ago, and is not actually a problem. The people who wrote that recent paper made some glaring mistakes and assumptions regarding mining and the bitcoin economy, not the least of which is that the network doesn't care when you mined a block, just when it was broadcast. Being selfish and holding a block while mining the next one has a huge risk that someone else will mine a block and push it out to the network before you push your own out, making your block worthless. In short, #1 is not an issue.

2) Similar to #1, since this attack is costly to perform, and is extremely risky. Plus 0.9 may address it in part, since it will be the merchant that will be receiving, checking, and broadcasting transactions.

3) Its not the same as being owned by the government, because miners will still not have control over the currency. Only over transactions. And as long as two pools are competing for fees and mining revenue, they will continue to process as many transactions as they can. Also, the world is large. Instead of one government, you Han have many mining corps all around the world. Even the wealthiest corporation in the world, Exxon, still has tons of competition.
As for the ballooning blockchain, that will get pruned long before that becomes a problem.

4) Then I guess there is no fix, until bitcoin comes out with a fix.

5) Money is not valuable because you can print it at home, money is valuable because it is useful for transaction and commerce. Apt coins are mostly a waste of time and resources. Just because lots of people mine them will not automatically mean that they will be used in trade.
During the MtGox hack in the summer of 2011, it was revealed that there were over 65,000 MtGox users. That number very likely doubled or tripled by the summer of 2012. By January of 2013, MtGox was adding 25,000 new users every month, and my March/April that number was 50,000 every month.Services like instawallet boasted of having over 1.5 million accounts, and Blockchain alone recently said they had over 300,000 (which I found surprisingly low). And now we also have China, which surpassed even MtGox, and may have possibly doubled the number of bitcoin users around the world (though I suspect it may account for 1\3 of new users). Either way, your 350,000 number is extremely wrong, and was likely surpassed over a year ago, before we had Cyprus, Silk Road news, and China. (My personal guess on total number of bitcoin users is 2mil to 3mil users)

Bitcoin is much less vulnerable to competition than eBay is.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 11, 2013, 10:25:35 AM
Bitcoin is much less vulnerable to competition than eBay is.
I wouldn't say that at all.

Ebay is a good example where the network effect also drives people to one single company, but I don't see bitcoin to be profiting from that much against crypto competition. The more people using ebay increases the benefits from using just ebay over any competition, but on bitcoin it isn't bitcoin exclusive. Altcoins also profit from more people using bitcoin, so that doesn't make them much worse against bitcoins.

It's actually beneficial to use more than one crypto so I expect competition for btc to grow once people realize that.
The MC of altcoins is still very small compared to bitcoins, so more people using altcoins could trigger a networkeffect against bitcoin. More people using altcoin drive prices up which increases benefits for people that use altcoins.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 11, 2013, 01:10:00 PM
Ah fuck it, I'll take a stab at this

1) Problem was really "discovered" apparently three years ago, and is not actually a problem.

Incorrect, read the rebuttal from the author of the paper:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110209017

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/09/no-you-dint/

Also the most prominent Bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen is concerned and put out a threat (http://sourceforge.net/mailarchive/message.php?msg_id=31609209) to anyone who attempts the attack.

The people who wrote that recent paper made some glaring mistakes and assumptions regarding mining and the bitcoin economy, not the least of which is that the network doesn't care when you mined a block, just when it was broadcast. Being selfish and holding a block while mining the next one has a huge risk that someone else will mine a block and push it out to the network before you push your own out, making your block worthless. In short, #1 is not an issue.

Incorrect, section 6.1 Problem (http://arxiv.org/pdf/1311.0243v1.pdf#page=13) of the research paper refutes your statement above and explains how a Sybil attack is used to foil that "huge risk". Even without the Sybil attack, if a miner controls 33% of the network (http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1111013970), he can accomplish the selfish-mine.

2) Similar to #1, since this attack is costly to perform, ...

Incorrect, the computation of a share is orders-of-magnitude less than the network PoW difficulty. Therefor, if you know any math, then you understand that the cost is asymmetrical and falls on the pool.

...and is extremely risky.

Incorrect, botnets can be used to supply unlimited throw away IP addresses, even if you need an ASIC to do the computation.

Plus 0.9 may address it in part, since it will be the merchant that will be receiving, checking, and broadcasting transactions.

Huh? Please explain.

3) Its not the same as being owned by the government, because miners will still not have control over the currency. Only over transactions.

Nonsense. Control over all transactions is control over a currency.

Additionally, a monopoly on mining means you can fork any feature you want, i.e. turn it back into fiat again in cohoots with the government.

And don't argue back that the community can just fork or create a new coin. Remember you are arguing that altcoins are impossible! You would then be arguing for our position. ;)

And as long as two pools are competing for fees and mining revenue, they will continue to process as many transactions as they can.

Cartelization means there is no more competition. Cartelization is the natural outcome of society, especially Bitcoin puts the capability on a silver platter by ending debasement and relying only on transaction fees as I explained in detail in my prior post.

Also, the world is large. Instead of one government, you Han have many mining corps all around the world. Even the wealthiest corporation in the world, Exxon, still has tons of competition.

If you believe oil is not cartelized and fascist with the government, then I guess you should continue with your delusion. My father was the head attorney for West Coast division of Exxon, and later a general counsel, and later a consultant attorney for THUMS, a consortium of all the majors.

Yes the world is a big place and that is our main hope for an altcoin to continue operating if the G20 filters the internet. Some where in some third world country, the internet will still function. And so the new economy will migrate there.

As for the ballooning blockchain, that will get pruned long before that becomes a problem.

Not if mining is cartelized, because Amazon.com will have every incentive to let it grow so that others can't handle it.

And pruning only works for entirely spent coins. With all the dust (SatoshiDice), this is looking to be less effective than once thought.

4) Then I guess there is no fix, until bitcoin comes out with a fix.

Bitcoin will never add anonymity to the coin, because this would thrust it into a different regulatory state, which will upset those who want Bitcoin to be government compliant and would want to ride the G20 Titantic down the global sovereign debt collapse circa 2016 - 2020. Meanwhile a little anonymous altcoin can be sucking up all that capital that really wants to survive that implosion and thus appreciating much faster than Bitcoin and surviving after the implosion when Bitcoin will become intertwined with that SHTF government hunting down all wealth outcome coming.

You can't play along with government when it is dying. It takes everything down with it, because the socialism is bankrupt and is on auto-pilot down the toilet bowl. How many examples from history do I need to cite? Start with Wiemar then Nazi Germany.

5) Money is not valuable because you can print it at home, money is valuable because it is useful for transaction and commerce.

We already explained upthread that as long as there exists a liquid exchange between altcoins and Bitcoin, then the altcoins can be used in all the same commerce as Bitcoin.

Apt coins are mostly a waste of time and resources. Just because lots of people mine them will not automatically mean that they will be used in trade.

There you go again with your illogical FUD, forgetting what we already explained upthread.

During the MtGox hack in the summer of 2011, it was revealed that there were over 65,000 MtGox users. That number very likely doubled or tripled by the summer of 2012. By January of 2013, MtGox was adding 25,000 new users every month, and my March/April that number was 50,000 every month.Services like instawallet boasted of having over 1.5 million accounts, and Blockchain alone recently said they had over 300,000 (which I found surprisingly low). And now we also have China, which surpassed even MtGox, and may have possibly doubled the number of bitcoin users around the world (though I suspect it may account for 1\3 of new users). Either way, your 350,000 number is extremely wrong, and was likely surpassed over a year ago, before we had Cyprus, Silk Road news, and China. (My personal guess on total number of bitcoin users is 2mil to 3mil users)

That 350,000 number comes from someone who has 10,000 Bitcoins and is has a positive reputation in these forums.

Even if it is 2 - 3 million, that is still pathetic in 4 years. I will repeat that I had a million+ users in 2 years for a web page editor back in 1999 - 2001, and the internet is 10 times more users now.

Bitcoin is much less vulnerable to competition than eBay is.

It is much more vulnerable for the same reason that I explained to you upthread when you provided the HTTP example.

Ebay is not decentralized, and cryptocurrencies are.

Any way, I am growing weary of debating with an idiot as demonstrated in this post. Especially don't have patience given you hurled a "fuck" in the recent post and character assassination insult at me upthread. Present some new arguments, and check your facts properly, else I am likely to ignore you.

The following comment from the discussion of that 25% attack research paper is applicable here:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110508599

Quote
Alas, Bitcoin has become so riven with speculators, zealots and fanatics that the implications of this will be ignored, in fact more than that they will flame the messenger.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 11, 2013, 04:39:03 PM
I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons (http://www.catb.org/esr/writings/magic-cauldron/magic-cauldron-5.html)) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1.) I don't see any new problems with that at all.

See my prior reply to Rassah.

1.+2.) Who expected that mining will allways be cooperative.

It must be "incentive-compatible" (http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1112150461), else it will fail (http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1109502728).

4.) Can be seen as advantage aswell. It's better to have the option than be forced to use anonymity. Gov rather not fight crypto if it's trackable.

It is possible to offer anonymity built-in as an option to an altcoin. I have written down an algorithm. Then you get both advantages, without the disadvantage I explained for Bitcoin.

The other advantage of the anonymity algorithm I wrote down is it fixes another thing broken in Bitcoin:

6. No feature to prevent pools from growing to a significant percentage of the PoW network difficulty.

3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that seems to be not a choice by then.

I tried to distill the information content of that but ended up with the empty set.

Seems like you are trying to say that if a cartel takes over Bitcoin mining as I explained in my prior post, then the cartel won't secure the network. Well they might secure just fine, except of course when they don't like you (and your transactions). And they would include the government, since cartels don't exist without contrivance and conspiring with the government.

Seems like you are saying that if we don't like it, it won't happen. Incorrect. What we like has nothing to do with the outcome, rather it is what we support and what is the game theory of what we support and use.

If most of all honest* miners agree to stay on one chain and fight (illegal) forks no matter the cost it wouldn't need any changes. Just the announcement would be enough.

How do you fight when the masses are happily sending their transactions to Amazon.com?

Seems you haven't really thought this out deeply. I have. I published an article on it and defended 100s of comments:

Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160612)

One of the published copies that appeared all over the internet:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39704.html

6.) Goverments are stupid, but not the kind of stupid most people think of. Once BTC gets significant it will be overregulated. These regulations will be (as usual) useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general, but alts might be able to adapt to them.

Cartels are not stupid. They control and own the government now. The government is run as a Commons and the cartels let it suffer from Tragedy of the Commons, while they privatize profits and socialize losses.

Since this thread is about the problems of altcoins I want to bring in the following real problems. The article in the OP and it's conclusion is biased and not plausible. Please don't argue that most of his busted myths on altcoins aren't actually true. I know that.

1.) Confilicting Requirements
It would have to be innovative and very lucrative for early adopters to reach a critical size to be even noticed. For later adoption it mustn't favour early adopters too much and be conservative.

Agreed.

2.) It's unlikely that bitcoin is flawed
in a way that it will have to be replaced within the next few years. Most flaws won't be noticeable by most people within this decade.

Mostly agreed, but for example the inability to mine it on a regular computer is already noticed by everyone and lamented by many (if not most).

The anonymity and taint issue are a concern to those who are (or are not, because of lack thereof,) moving big money through Bitcoin.

The lack of a feature to limit the size of pools is a concern of everyone.

3.) Time and gamechanging innovations are running out.
The timewindow for establishing a new crypto is closing and the most basic features bitcoin lackes are already used by other alts or in development. It will be harder and harder to establish a new crypto in the future.

Agreed on time is crucial. Disagree that existing altcoins have anything. Only Litecoin and barely.

The only thing other altcoins have that is unique is PoS and I think it has no future, but I could be wrong.

4.) Regulation
Whem gov finished regulation on bitcoin they will be against anything new that isn't regulated yet.

But they have a problem. How do they write a law to differentiate cryptocurrencies by feature? We can easily design and program circles around their legislation.

So I don't think so. They will continue with adding regulation which will apply to all altcoins too.

4.) Regulation
Anonymity could be a requirement by the community and also a reason to outlaw that crypto.

Not if the improved and integrated anonymity is optional.

5.) Bubbles and Risk
Noone ever invested in bitcoin lost money if he just had the patients to stick to it.

Ditto Litecoin, because it is the only altcoin with a useful feature, i.e. no ASICs and thus GPUs can still mine.

Price bubles and risk in general are higher on altcoins.  A serious altcoin bubble could do enourmous damage and won't recover like btc.

This will shakeout all the wannabe altcoins, analogous to the dot.com crash of 2000-1. The internet startups are still continuing to get funding and IPOs now.

6.) You will get super rich, no risk or skill involved
Scamcoins won't always be so primitive and easy to spot. Madoff had stolen billions and a premine isn't the only way to grab some fool's btcs. A succesful scamcoin could keep serious players away from alternative coins.

There is nothing wrong with a TINY premine if it is used only for funding the open source developments of the coin and all payments from the premine are publicly explained.

I think we are dealing with intelligent investors. They are becoming more astute.

I don't believe in Malthusian "this is the end of the world" or finality of outcomes. Rather the market adjusts and improves, not get more stupid as you claim.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 11, 2013, 08:18:09 PM
Ah fuck it, I'll take a stab at this

1) Problem was really "discovered" apparently three years ago, and is not actually a problem.

Incorrect, read the rebuttal from the author of the paper:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110209017

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/09/no-you-dint/

Also the most prominent Bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen is concerned and put out a threat (http://sourceforge.net/mailarchive/message.php?msg_id=31609209) to anyone who attempts the attack.

After reading the 2nd link I thought more about it and there is by far more to this.

The fix for this to 25% is essential for bitcoin or it can easily been overtaken by goverments without fighting the community directly. Ever thought of beeing legally obligated to join such pool run by your gov, most miners would follow regardless if they are legally required or not.

I have canged my opinion on the Anonymity. I belive it might be a necessity for POS cryptos to be decentralized, but I haven't thought about this yet.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 11, 2013, 09:12:20 PM
I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons (http://www.catb.org/esr/writings/magic-cauldron/magic-cauldron-5.html)) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1.) I don't see any new problems with that at all.
See my prior reply to Rassah.
You convinced me that this is an issue, take a look my previous post (after yours, befor this one)

I think without the fix this is a very serious thread to bitcoin. Just Centralisation on its own is unavoidable (but not new) for bitcoin.

1.+2.) Who expected that mining will allways be cooperative.

It must be "incentive-compatible" (http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1112150461), else it will fail (http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1109502728).
Miners are supposed to be coperative, but even if they aren't it doesn't effect bitcoin as long as they are still doing the job they are supposed to do. Goal was peaceful mining, but actually we just need mining.

3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that seems to be not a choice by then.

I tried to distill the information content of that but ended up with the empty set.
And you got it wrong. I didn't disagree on what you think I did, nor did I ever assume that "if we don't like it, it won't happen."*

*Should have been said better. I edited that to make it clearer.

I noticed we often use words totally different. I don't want to waste time on defining f.e. honest so I repeat what I wanted to say as dry and conclusionless as I can. Every smart person has to conclude anyways for it's own.

In the future fees won't be able to cover the cost required to run enough miners to keep bitcoin safe using todays rules.
A mayority of miners can decide on an other method to find the right chain, currently it's lengh of blocks, but it doesn't have to be that way. The new method will have to be accepted and used by the rest of miners, regardless if the like or hate it.

If they whish that could be a central authority that has to approve every new block and so punish illegal (=what they do not allow) behavour. Free transactions would probably be one of them,but my statement was simply that fees will be very high and recivers could require many confirmations. On chain transactions will be a rare event so this doesn't upset many.

My new thoughts on this topic:
Paybacks on fees would probably be considers illegal and wouldn't end well for that miner. If a cartel hasn't 51% already all other miner would be totally against free txt. This forces everyone that hasn't the ability to mine to use the miners off chain transactions. Connection between miner networks could be done from each miner using his own blocks. It's free for them althought they still have to pay a huge fee.*

*)Interresting method to launder btc's, isn't it?

I don't know what your definition on cartel is, but these miner would still be compeating against each other. A 1% attack can be prevented be forcing a timestamp after each block. Even deposits and withdraws would be free, but you won't send to other people accounts. Rules on the miners off chains would have to following the laws of the miners nation so they can't fusion.


6.) Goverments are stupid, but not the kind of stupid most people think of. Once BTC gets significant it will be overregulated. These regulations will be (as usual) useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general, but alts might be able to adapt to them.

Cartels are not stupid. They control and own the government now. The government is run as a Commons and the cartels let it suffer from Tragedy of the Commons, while they privatize profits and socialize losses.
Agreed, but that is my definition of a goverment going full retard. It might be smart for individuals in gov, but very stupid for it as whole. The resulting regulations will be "useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general" since some might profit from that.

There is a difference between smart acting individuals in a stupid group and smart (acting) group of individuals.
I was talking about the stupid goverment, not stupid politicians. Hope these will burn in hell though.


4.) Regulation
Whem gov finished regulation on bitcoin they will be against anything new that isn't regulated yet.

But they have a problem. How do they write a law to differentiate cryptocurrencies by feature? We can easily design and program circles around their legislation.

So I don't think so. They will continue with adding regulation which will apply to all altcoins too.
AML, KYC and other market barriers aren't a problem for established companies, but small and new ones might strugle with this. These are usually fixed costs for everyone, but that fixum could be more than total revenues for some and less than coffee budget for others.

Regulations could also be made in a way that only bitcoin can actually comply.

"It's has to be the same for everyone since so it's fair to everyone." is unfortunately the way most people think.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 01:31:47 AM
In the future fees won't be able to cover the cost required to run enough miners to keep bitcoin safe using todays rules.
A mayority of miners can decide on an other method to find the right chain, currently it's lengh of blocks, but it doesn't have to be that way. The new method will have to be accepted and used by the rest of miners, regardless if the like or hate it.

If they whish that could be a central authority that has to approve every new block and so punish illegal (=what they do not allow) behavour. Free transactions would probably be one of them

That is not PoW. That is not a decentralized currency.

,but my statement was simply that fees will be very high and recivers could require many confirmations.

I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

On chain transactions will be a rare event so this doesn't upset many.

Off chain transactions mean you trust a centralized entity, e.g. a coin laundry.

That is not a decentralized currency, unless you count many such independent entities as being another form of decentralization.

My new thoughts on this topic:
Paybacks on fees would probably be considers illegal and wouldn't end well for that miner.

There is no way for Bitcoin to make such a thing illegal. Only a government can do that, and then we wouldn't have a decentralized currency any more.

If a cartel hasn't 51% already all other miner would be totally against free txt.

We have that now and they are not stopping it.

It will be impossible to stop hypothetical refunds of tx fees, because miners can't identify which are such transactions to boycott those blocks.

This forces everyone that hasn't the ability to mine to use the miners off chain transactions. Connection between miner networks could be done from each miner using his own blocks. It's free for them althought they still have to pay a huge fee.*

I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

*)Interresting method to launder btc's, isn't it?

There is no way to launder Bitcoins, because everyone's identity is ultimately knowable, so even if you do a perfect job on your own anonymity, you can be discovered via process of elimination of the those who are not anonymous.

I don't know what your definition on cartel is, but these miner would still be compeating against each other. A 1% attack can be prevented be forcing a timestamp after each block. Even deposits and withdraws would be free, but you won't send to other people accounts. Rules on the miners off chains would have to following the laws of the miners nation so they can't fusion.

You are talking to yourself. It is impossible to understand what you are trying to say.

If you are not going to write clearly, I will stop reading.

Thanks for the upthread discussion, which was more productive than this latest post of yours.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 01:53:22 AM
That new selfish-mine attack means (after the proposed fix is implemented) that we will end up with only one pool (http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1109502728), if any pool ever gains 25% or more of the network hashrate and employs that attack.

Thus the only way to make any changes to Bitcoin will be if that one pool agrees, or if we fork the blockchain and create a new pool and see how users come over to the new pool.

On further study, I have been unsuccessful in designing a way to limit the size of pools.

So you want to make damn sure you are using a pool which has anonymity built in, so when it is the only pool someday then the government can't compel it to take certain (e.g. AML, KYC) actions based on your identity.

Yet even so the government could conceivably compel the single pool to turn off the anonymity feature, and peers would have to upgrade their protocol. Any attempt to leave for another pool would cause a fork in the blockchain if the single pool was compelled to not accept blocks from a pool which did not comply.

The natural outcome is thus many coins and many forks.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 02:12:09 AM
I proposed a solution to the selfish-mine attack:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1118888072

Quote
I propose a solution to this selfish-mine attack. There should be a new kind of peer which is responsible for relaying block solutions to the network, it should be paid per share (regardless of whether a block solution is found) and the oblivious share fix[1] should be employed in the blockchain and by this new type of peer.

Thus this new type of peer has no incentive to be selfish. And the rest of the network can't know which shares are block solutions, until this new type of announces the block solution.

[1] https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_analysis.pdf#page=29

The problem is if existing vested interests resist this fix and blockchain hard fork, and instead go for the monopoly take over.

I would be watching carefully what happens now to Bitcoin. The value could plummet depending on the resolution of this near-term, once everyone understands this is a "do or die time" juncture..


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 12, 2013, 02:30:57 AM
I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

Sorry, I thought that was clear.
It was your response to my response to your 3rd problem of bitcoins long ago.
I included a quote from it so I thought that was obvios, but it wasn't.

Here it is:
3. Bitcoin stops giving coin rewards to miners in 2040, but the rate of debasement drops below 1% by 2033 and gets relatively low by 2020s compared to today's 11% and the recent past of several times that rate. Everyone thinks transaction fees are a solution, but they haven't even really considered this deeply. Transaction fees could be 0% (or refunded if mandatory) by large corporations, e.g. Amazon.com. This would drive most transactions to them, and they might withhold sending these out to other miners. Thus all mining WILL be owned by cartels and banks in the future. This is the same as owned by the government, since in fascism (that we have now in the world), corporations and governments cooperate (just review the NSA scandals with large internet companies revealed by Snowden if you doubt that you already live in a fledgling fascism). Btw, this takeover of mining by corporations was predicted by Satoshi and is supported by the core Bitcoin devs. You can find the relevant post somewhere on this site, I had the link to the post once before.

Note the ballooning multi-GB (eventually to be TBs) blockchain (which the Mini-blockchain design proposes to fix) also leads to either pools or large corporations doing the mining. And not fixing #2 above, means pools can be attacked later. Thus another factor that will drive Bitcoin mining to cartels in the future.
3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives for an old bitcoin to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that is nothing we can avoid by then.
If most of all miners agree to stay on one chain and fight (illegal) forks no matter the cost it wouldn't need any changes. Just the announcement would be enough. When most transactions are off chain anyways confirations required could take weeks,d'be damm expensive and must be approved by CA anyways.

A CA wouldn't have the powes todays govs have so I don't see many people protesting. Current bitcoiners excludet, but who are 350.000 people to the world anyways ...

2nd Edited to be easier to follow.
and the rest of the conversation

That is not PoW. That is not a decentralized currency.

Yes, it isn't.
The bitcoin protocoll can be hacked to act against Bitcoins initial intentions.

I belive this is interresting since this will be a way that shows the bitcoin network will be safe once it doesn't generate any new coins anymore. You showed that fees alone couldn't do that.

You love decentralisation and decentral PoW, but most people by then would rather have a working bitcoin than that.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 03:01:20 AM
Miners can't fight if they don't have 51% of the hashrate. They won't have if the cartel is taking most of the revenue away by withholding transactions.

Yes the masses will accept the cartels and government takeover converting Bitcoin to a fiat, as long as the masses get their goods and services.

This is another reason I think Bitcoin was designed to be the one-world digital currency controlled from Brussels. I think Bitcoin was planted by the elite, and not some fictional person "Satoshi". Perhaps not the same elite as who are in the government, i.e. Obama and Bernanke may not know about this.

At this time, Bitcoiners don't care any more, as long as they get wealthy holding BTC. Yet they fail to understand the bankrupt G20 will be coming to take away all their wealth. Bitcoin is not anonymous for any one. France is taxing millionaires at 75% and we are still early into the coming global economic collapse. And most of you are not reporting your capital gains, thus come fees, penalties, interest, and JAIL TIME. Some Europeans (or Chinese) think they are safe because if they live abroad or otherwise take advantage of a tax loophole, yet governments never play fair. They can retroactively clawback everything, including what they previously promised were non-taxable domiciles. When the masses are threatened by debt implosion, they will support the government to do this crap.

Don't think you can just convert to another asset, as "clawbacks" apply (ever since MF Global).

And you can't erase the BTC holdings you've already had, it is all on the public ledger forever. And the anonymity gets weaker over time, as more and more people make mistakes which can be traced back through the blockchain. Remember the NSA is storing everything, they will know who traded what and when. UK and other major G20 nations have similar operations and data sharing arrangements.

You can't run and you can't hide, not even on the top of some isolated mountain in Chile (where they recently tracked down a fugitive suffering from frostbite).


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 12, 2013, 04:59:07 AM
This is another reason I think Bitcoin was designed to be the one-world digital currency controlled from Brussels. I think Bitcoin was planted by the elite, and not some fictional person "Satoshi".
Don't you think this a really long shot?

Strange that we agree with that much although our conclutions are 100% different.

Yes the masses will accept the cartels and government takeover converting Bitcoin to a fiat, as long as the masses get their goods and services.
A "crypto" run by goverments could replace bitcoin since most people (including me) don't have such an extreme worldview like you.

I don't expect fiat to be replaced by bitcoin or any other system unless it fails catastrophically. This would require more than just EUR,USD to loose all of it's value. I find it even more unlikely that goverments will try (or even succeed) to change bitcoin to fiat like crypto. Not going to happen.

On the other hand would it possible (and more favourable for gov) to lauch a pseudo crypto as alternative. A 1:1 fixing with that nations fiat system could be acepted by most people. Will be interresting to see how much anonymity people will be willing to sacrifice, but I expect that to be enourmous. Like todays currencies it will be a legal tender so you will be forced to accept it by law.

Such fiat crypto would be a serious thread for bitcoin and her sisters ...


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rassah on November 12, 2013, 05:35:57 AM
It's actually beneficial to use more than one crypto

How so? To me using altcoins only adds more friction.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: Rassah on November 12, 2013, 06:02:20 AM
There are no arguments against altcoins, because paying a 1% exchange fee for BTC to Altcoin exchange is exactly the same as paying the 0% fee for just using Bitcoin directly, and besides, government owns and controls everything, with the help of Amazon, so why even bother with bitcoins.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 12, 2013, 10:32:41 AM
It's actually beneficial to use more than one crypto

How so? To me using altcoins only adds more friction.

Who will pay for the friction isn't who is going to decide.

The most part  of the cost of having to accept f.e litecoin aswell will have to be to be paid by the shop. Like credid card fees where most of the fee (70-90%) isn't even paid by the customer. A shop doesn't care if btc is cheaper or not vs LTC to accept, it cares if accepting LTC makes them more profit or not. It does.


Reducing volatility (diverstvication) and risk

Having most money in only one asset is a bad idea since the up's and downs would drive most people insane. That's why everyone with brain would never put all his money in just one stock or asset. Splitting it up mathematically reduces how much the value fluctuates over time, that's a huge advantage for a individual.

Even if you 100% belive that bitcoin will alwasy outperform anything else you can't be 100% sure about it. The same is with stocks. Pick the health industry and you maby get it right to predict them, but that one beats the market and it's peergroup ...

I think that these are the most improtant ones, but faster confirmations might be an issue for some uses aswell. All In on bitcoin is a risky bet on crypto and on altcoins having less than 3% of uses. It's safer just to bet on the crypto by also buying a few (10%) serious altcoins.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 01:10:00 PM
Good rebuttal St.Bit and your diversification reasoning will be more true if there is a serious altcoin that is appreciating faster than Bitcoin. Also there is no reason the exchange fee should remain 1%, because the exchange is not a market maker (i.e. has no capital risk) and is simply matching bids and asks, thus competition should drive this near to 0% since it is a very low overhead business.

Sure there is a bid-ask spread cost, as with any exchange of anything, but spread always decreases with volume.

Another reason is as we have explained upthread, it is impossible due to vested mining interests for Bitcoin to adopt every new feature and improvement. I don't even think Bitcoin can adopt my suggested fix for the 25% selfish-mining attack. If they don't, and an altcoin does, that is going to start to make people realize Bitcoin can't keep up with critical improvements. I shared that fix with Bitcoin, because I know damn well they can't implement it due to vested interests. ;)

Bitcoin hasn't been competed with seriously, but this will change before Christmas 2013.

P.S. Rassah I refuted your reply (http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/09/no-you-dint/#comment-1119541660) to my comment about the selfish-mining.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 02:07:59 PM
Readers should also view the bottom of the prior page of this thread, as we were having a separate interesting discussion there which I replied to just a few minutes before this following post.

This is another reason I think Bitcoin was designed to be the one-world digital currency controlled from Brussels. I think Bitcoin was planted by the elite, and not some fictional person "Satoshi".

Don't you think this a really long shot?

Strange that we agree with that much although our conclutions are 100% different.

Well I am coming around more to your point-of-view, because if it is true that altcoins can compete, then such an experiment with Bitcoin will have failed for the elite, except if we consider...

Yes the masses will accept the cartels and government takeover converting Bitcoin to a fiat, as long as the masses get their goods and services.
A "crypto" run by goverments could replace bitcoin since most people (including me) don't have such an extreme worldview like you.

I don't expect fiat to be replaced by bitcoin or any other system unless it fails catastrophically. This would require more than just EUR,USD to loose all of it's value. I find it even more unlikely that goverments will try (or even succeed) to change bitcoin to fiat like crypto. Not going to happen.

On the other hand would it possible (and more favourable for gov) to lauch a pseudo crypto as alternative. A 1:1 fixing with that nations fiat system could be acepted by most people. Will be interresting to see how much anonymity people will be willing to sacrifice, but I expect that to be enourmous. Like todays currencies it will be a legal tender so you will be forced to accept it by law.

Such fiat crypto would be a serious thread for bitcoin and her sisters ...

Bitcoin was clearly designed to fail around 2033 or so when payment for mining dries up and due to the issue that transactions can be withheld (transaction withholding attack). 2033 is also the year that Armstrong's very reliable historical Pi model (http://armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/) (repeating cycles that match up with history since Mesopotamia) predicts this global crisis will have ended and the reset will be done.

I don't see what can be done to fix this issue in Bitcoin. Perpetual debasement (the solution) is frowned upon by goldbugs who don't understand well (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=195275.msg3352665#msg3352665). The vested interests in Bitcoin would never support such a change. And there is no fix that is possible with tx fees, not even making them mandatory will work.

So appears to me the elite plan to offer a fiat solution to the broken Bitcoin around 2033 or so. Bitcoin will be effectively centralized by that time, so should be easy to morph into a fiat.

Our chance with altcoins is to gain enough market share that not all people are willing to use that solution which the governments will offer when they reset the financial system.

The elite are clearly taking the world towards a major crisis, given they refuse to allow debt to contract and are increasing debt every where, to astronomical levels, e.g. total debt in the UK is 550% of GDP and increasing. Please see my documentation of this:

http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/11855-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz2iu5C4Y4Z

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3179

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3549

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3687

Thus it appears the elite plan on massive chaos in order to get the nations to give up sovereignty to a world-government which can provide a solution to the mess.

Thus our opportunity with altcoins is to provide a solution sooner than they do.

I hope you understand that debt is future taxation because debt is always paid by some sector. Debt is misallocation of human resources. The longer you increase it, the worse the failure of the economy when the writedowns finally come.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: rpietila on November 12, 2013, 03:20:25 PM
I wouldn't trust them. Not reporting your stuff to the authorities and not being anonymous means jail time and bankruptcy in this coming G20 crackdown as the sovereigns go into sovereign debt crisis spiral.
...
There is no viability for freedom with Bitcoin. It is going to kill all freedom long-term, even though it provides the illusion of increasing freedom short-term while the incriminating evidence mounts in the public ledger.

I think it is insane to use a non-anonymous coin like Bitcoin.

I don't want to say that you are too pessimistic, AnonyMint, but let's say what works for you, is not feasible for the majority.

Wise people such as Julian Assange (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.msg1896852#msg1896852) know the actual dynamics. It is not so black-and-white, even the vilest administrations need to take into account the public opinion. Governments have lots of resources because we feed them, but they have very much red tape, and the divisions that do actual, harmful, things to people, are understaffed. In the age of Internet you cannot so easily plan atrocities, because maintaining secrecy is so difficult.

What the majority should in my opinion do, is to fulfill Bitcoin's adoption curve (buy bitcoins), and not fear guillotine or supermax. If your liberty is based not on what you feel is right, but rather what you believe you can do in secret, it is not much of a liberty anymore. Bitcoin is a huge chance to make the world more free, especially as it looks like that it will hit its maximum value (not maximum adoption) already about 2016, which will be a huge shift in resource allocation. We need to redeem the time to network with other bitcoin powercenters and show the world that we bring peace and prosperity. Not fearing for our imagined anonymity and unwilling to spend. United we are strong, spreading FUD like the quoted part does not bring any good. (Yes, government does kill intellectuals without due process, but you and I are both alive, proving that it does not happen so often that a general warning is necessary).

This is a good "dystopia" read (http://lifeboat.com/blog/2013/04/bitcoins-dystopian-future). I am sure we can make the future better than that, though.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 03:57:49 PM
The NSA is actively attacking Tor:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/04/nsa-gchq-attack-tor-network-encryption

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/04/tor-attacks-nsa-users-online-anonymity

http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/oct/04/tor-stinks-nsa-presentation-document

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2013/10/how_the_nsa_att.html


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 04:19:07 PM
Your problem friend is you refuse to accept that the mathematical reality that the world is bankrupt and that there must be an adjustment that will impoverish many people. By refusing to accept this reality, you illogically demand a fairy-tale outcome.

Disclosure, rpietila publicly boasts of owning 10,000 BTC. Great for him, but it means he has a vested interest to not be logical and objective. I own no BTC, so I have a vested interest against BTC and for something that would rise from a low value, e.g. an altcoin. My success on that depends on my objectiveness, since it certainly won't happen from my cheerleading.

I wouldn't trust them. Not reporting your stuff to the authorities and not being anonymous means jail time and bankruptcy in this coming G20 crackdown as the sovereigns go into sovereign debt crisis spiral.
...
There is no viability for freedom with Bitcoin. It is going to kill all freedom long-term, even though it provides the illusion of increasing freedom short-term while the incriminating evidence mounts in the public ledger.

I think it is insane to use a non-anonymous coin like Bitcoin.

I don't want to say that you are too pessimistic, AnonyMint, but let's say what works for you, is not feasible for the majority.

Yes that "not feasible for the majority" is the salient point (and it applies to both anonymity and the ability to move from bankrupt fiat to something that sustains value past the coming implosion).

But in the history of the world, the majority always destroys themselves. Did you not see the chart I posted upthread of the fall of Rome from 1.4 million to less than 30,000 for 1000+ years.

Everyone simply abandoned civilization, because the government was oppressing everyone. This is what happens when the majority depend on the government to tax (i.e. steal) at higher than the Laffer rate. Europe is already at double to triple the Laffer rate. France's Hollande is pushing for 4x the Laffer rate which is eugenics if they succeed, similar to Hitler's culling of the weak to sustain the bankrupt universal health system of Germany at that time.

That is not sustainable and it always ends in a bloodbath throughout history.

So as a wealthy person, you have to protect yourself against what is the natural outcome of society over and over again throughout history.

Wise people such as Julian Assange (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.msg1896852#msg1896852) know the actual dynamics.

Assange is a propaganda tool of the elite. The hegelian dialectic stands out like a sore thumb if you are aware of the propaganda methods employed by the elite.

In short, a thesis-antithesis (sort of like the good guy, bad guy employed by 2 cars salesmen to get you to trust the "good" one) to make us believe we can save ourselves via the collective. This works until the very end where everything collapses and those who were relying on the collective go down with the Titanic.

It is not so black-and-white, even the vilest administrations need to take into account the public opinion. Governments have lots of resources because we feed them, but they have very much red tape, and the divisions that do actual, harmful, things to people, are understaffed. In the age of Internet you cannot so easily plan atrocities, because maintaining secrecy is so difficult.

Nothing needs to be planned. The global financial system is bankrupt and it will collapse unto itself and the masses will demand the government to tax and spend to the death spiral.

What the majority should in my opinion do, is to fulfill Bitcoin's adoption curve (buy bitcoins), and not fear guillotine or supermax.

The majority can do nothing to save themselves. Once they try to move to an asset that could really survive the global write-down of debt, then the entirely system will collapse and they won't be able to get into that asset in time. Only a very small % can make it out of the implosion. This is mathematically unarguable. You know the math, we've spoken before.

If your liberty is based not on what you feel is right, but rather what you believe you can do in secret, it is not much of a liberty anymore.

It is the only liberty you will have as the system implodes, which is 100% guaranteed.

Edit#3: Don't think you will be able to buy protection against an angry globe (see the article you linked below).

Those who trust the majority (socialism) will always be taught a lesson in mathematics.

Bitcoin is a huge chance to make the world more free, especially as it looks like that it will hit its maximum value (not maximum adoption) already about 2016, which will be a huge shift in resource allocation.

There is no way the socialism will not fight back. Once the adoption rate reaches the size that it impacts on the real economy, then the $quadrillion in debt derivatives will domino contagion. Thus the socialism will fight back confiscating left and right.

Do you think the bankrupt socialism is just going to go quietly into the night? The billion boomers who are in retirement are going to give up their health care and retirement and live in destitution quietly? Hell no. There will be war first.

Just look at the math of the debt situation in the world today and the derivatives. This is a hidden time bomb of global proportions.

We need to redeem the time to network with other bitcoin powercenters and show the world that we bring peace and prosperity.

I don't understand your proposal, but there is nothing you can do to bring peace to a bankrupt globe. You must first allow the write-downs, which brings at least 1 - 2 years of poverty, then you can rebuild. But society never agrees, and insteads fights and so you end up with 2 more world wars and decades of suffering.

It ALWAYS goes this way. ALWAYS. Study history.

It is NEVER different this time, even though the socialists always think it will be.

Not fearing for our imagined anonymity and unwilling to spend. United we are strong,

United you are the Titantic.

How much you want to wager? And where you can store that wager so I will be surely paid when you lose? (in short there is no such place to place a future's bet, it will all be subject to counter-party risk, even physical gold and silver as I've found out through personal experience as you well know)

Readers please realize I am talking with a long-time friend here. Yet he is socialist and I am free market (Libertarian minanarchist). Who will be correct?

At one time, he supported silver as money and so did I so we became friends (and still are), so I was under the impression he was a Libertarian, but now I've come to realize he wants a socialist solution.

spreading FUD like the quoted part does not bring any good. (Yes, government does kill intellectuals without due process, but you and I are both alive, proving that it does not happen so often that a general warning is necessary).

Your FUD is my truth. I study history. I don't think it is different this time, because it never is in history. I understand Olsen capture. I understand bankruptcy, write-downs, and social inertia.

This is a good "dystopia" read (http://lifeboat.com/blog/2013/04/bitcoins-dystopian-future). I am sure we can make the future better than that, though.

Will read.

Note he writes:

Quote
I own a few bitcoins, and I intend to keep them until I find a more attractive investment (that is, I want to invest in whatever replaces bitcoin or builds on top of it).

EDIT: yes the writer understands very well what I am saying about society will confiscate Bitcoin,

Quote
If you are involved in Bitcoin now, you should prepare to be almost universally hated someday.

And they will be able to, because you are not anonymous in the Bitcoin public ledger and Bitcoin mining will become ever more centralized. You might claim it is a good thing to let society steal some of your BTC in order to accomplish the coming global write-down in a less painful manner, but the problem is that stealing destroys capital (human resources) and thus makes the coming global implosion worse and last longer.

The least painful road forward is for the smartest capital to hide itself anonymously, so that the global system can reset in the shortest possible time with the least theft of capital, thus preserving the knowledge makers of the economy and moving the globe back towards prosperity the fastest. Society will fight this fast method, because it is so sharp and painful for a couple of years. But this is our best option. Bitcoin won't help us achieve it, but an altcoin might.

You are depending on the majority for your outcome. You have not gained any decentralization nor improved anything for mankind.

EDIT#2: As yes, that writer understands what I wrote in this post, so he and I agree:

Quote
For our first thought experiment, let’s imagine a world where distributed currencies like bitcoin have become wildly successful due to technological advances which make them easy to use and completely stable. In this world government-issued money is as good as dead. It may take a few years for everyone to realize it, but there will come a point when the ever-increasing outflows of money from fiat money into untaxable, unseizable decentralized currency will reach a tipping point, and we’ll have a financial panic like the world has never seen. Frightened lawmakers and banks will try to stop people from cashing out, but that will just increase the panic. Those who don’t get out before the door closes will be in dire straits indeed. This is the ultimate bank run — the run on the world’s central banks, and who could possibly step in and restore order?


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: AnonyMint on November 12, 2013, 04:50:45 PM
Btw, if you see a new altcoin that is being attacked with words by those who have a lot invested in Bitcoin, that should be an indication that the new altcoin is very good and a serious threat to Bitcoin. They won't bother to attack it otherwise. They will find all sorts of things to make you afraid to adopt it, such as how immature the implementation is, etc.. And everyone who doesn't adopt it, will be kicking themselves later.


Title: Re: The Problem With Altcoins
Post by: St.Bit on November 12, 2013, 05:14:02 PM
Bitcoin was clearly designed to fail around 2033 or so when ...

The first problem for us here is what to consider failure to go further.
Or better what we 2 both would consider failure to be precise.

I don't think we would (obvious extremes excluded) agree on fail/win on many outcomes that could happen. Not many people in bitcoin here would agree with me on this either, but I don't arguing to win an argumentation or to change any opinions exept my own.


Myself, and most people outside bitcoin, don't see centralisation and gov controlled fiat as the devil. Once people make their first thoughts about fiat some begin to see just the nasty sides of it, but first impressions aren't always right. Someone smart can also spend his whole life thinking about economics and still get it worse and worse. That's the problem with economics as science, two people can devote their life to it and still won't end at the same viewpoint if they are just equally smart enough.


I like the dept system, fiat and capitalism, although I know their flaws all to well. IMHO they are NOT fundamentally fucked up (like communism is), but there are some parameters you are not supposed to mess with. Unfortunately we can't leave our fingers from exactly these parameters. Printing new money for no rational reason is one of them.

Bitcoin can't be abused by "generate 10MBTC because it's too expensive for exports now" or any other bullshit justification from a few hundred to make them even wealthier by screwing the rest. Miners don't generate new bitcoins, they are allowed to compete for ones already known by the market and exactly when . I think that's too restrictive than necessary, but far better than the current interpretation of fiat by central banks which will destroy USD,EUR,... and the wealth of billions of people.


I see crypto currencies as the first way mankind discoverd to prevent us to change our decisions made on how to handle these parameters. Real changes in a way that actually changes something to a cryptoprotocoll are extreme hard to make and every crypto is more likely to fail than to change. Once a set of rules has been agreed on we are most likely to stick to it since changes here are extreme expensive for an economy. It will be very extreme hard to decide on one valid set of rules to handle these parameters. The last time we faced a similiar decisition was capitalism vs communism. That was damm nasty back then and nearly ended in a draw. Both dead, or better said all dead.

Bitcoin has the first non changeable set of rules we could choose money to be. I belive it's among the most fucked up sets possible and it's (not technical or code whise) implementation sucks, f.e. rewarding early adopters like us all so extreme.


Wow, can't belive I got there just from the quote above.
Sorry for long post in wrong thread, but I don't want to start a new topic.


Btw, if you see a new altcoin that is being attacked with words by those who have a lot invested in Bitcoin, that should be an indication that the new altcoin is very good and a serious threat to Bitcoin. They won't bother to attack it otherwise. They will find all sorts of things to make you afraid to adopt it, such as how immature the implementation is, etc.. And everyone who doesn't adopt it, will be kicking themselves later.
It's wrong to conclude anything from the amount of negative feedback without considering quality of feedback at all.

People bashing altcoins because they are biased ("those who have a lot invested in Bitcoin") should be ignored only, they mislead.
Idiotic or biased feedback is sort of alike, but you wouldn't be whise to do always the oposite of an idiot. He could sometimes be right too.