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Author Topic: The Problem With Altcoins  (Read 16459 times)
jubalix
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November 09, 2013, 08:48:41 PM
 #161


This guy understands very little of tech of money creation

"make moneys rather than to become money"

no one makes money except of a central bank, due to stateist controls, and arguably now bitcoin miners.

further tech does not work that way, it can ealiy be adapted and evolve, and the evolved from takes over the market or a new form.

This works 2 ways eg BTC could absorp in inovation in a way say the aircraft company would struggle to.

It's hard to think or many first movers, retaining the lead in any field, if I am wrong through a few at me.

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November 09, 2013, 11:09:59 PM
 #162

There are significant advantages to being able to move money between cryptocurrencies, even if you're only a bitcoin user
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November 10, 2013, 07:55:40 PM
Last edit: November 10, 2013, 08:40:54 PM by AnonyMint
 #163

I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1. A new 25% attack on PoW (proof-of-work) which affects all PoW coins. However, until Bitcoin makes the suggested fix, it is a 1% attack!

2. Pools are subject to the "withholding attack" until the "oblivious share" fix is added to the blockchain.

3. Bitcoin stops giving coin rewards to miners in 2040, but the rate of debasement drops below 1% by 2033 and gets relatively low by 2020s compared to today's 11% and the recent past of several times that rate. Everyone thinks transaction fees are a solution, but they haven't even really considered this deeply. Transaction fees could be 0% (or refunded if mandatory) by large corporations, e.g. Amazon.com. This would drive most transactions to them, and they might withhold sending these out to other miners. Thus all mining WILL be owned by cartels and banks in the future. This is the same as owned by the government, since in fascism (that we have now in the world), corporations and governments cooperate (just review the NSA scandals with large internet companies revealed by Snowden if you doubt that you already live in a fledgling fascism). Btw, this takeover of mining by corporations was predicted by Satoshi and is supported by the core Bitcoin devs. You can find the relevant post somewhere on this site, I had the link to the post once before.

Note the ballooning multi-GB (eventually to be TBs) blockchain (which the Mini-blockchain design proposes to fix) also leads to either pools or large corporations doing the mining. And not fixing #2 above, means pools can be attacked later. Thus another factor that will drive Bitcoin mining to cartels in the future.

4. Bitcoin relies on anonymity to be provided by external protocols, e.g. Tor or other "clearnet". None of these practically usable "clearnets" are 100% reliably immune to traffic analysis, especially not by a global adversary such as the NSA.

5. Bitcoin can't be mined by regular computers. Any altcoin that fixes this may potentially get millions of new users who download and mine some coin (especially if a pool comes standard). Bitcoin only has 350,000 users in 4 years. That is very slow. A download application which prints new coins will grow much faster the usership. I know from my past experience of growing CoolPage.com from 0 to million users in 2 years back in 1999 - 2001 when the internet was 1/10 the size, i.e. that would be 10+ million in 2 years today.

Any more?

My opinion is that Bitcoin can not fix any of these except #1. #2 because some pools may have proprietary "semi-solutions" which give them an edge on their competitors. #3 because it is ingrained in the selfish-miser-man-is-an-island-goldbug illogic ("no money printing", scarcity of coins = more appreciation) of the community as promoted by Satoshi's white paper. #4 because adding anonymity to Bitcoin would upset the apple-cart of expectations of where Bitcoin lies in the regulatory space. #5 is absolutely impossible to change in Bitcoin.


Thus the OP is lacking perspective of the technical issues. Bitcoin is very vulnerable to competition. Just no one has yet really competed with Bitcoin.

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November 10, 2013, 10:29:24 PM
Last edit: November 11, 2013, 10:52:31 PM by St.Bit
 #164

I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1.) I don't see any new problems with that at all. I think thats a huge problem if not fixed.
1.+2.) Who expected that mining will allways be cooperative.
4.) Can be seen as advantage aswell. It's better to have the option than be forced to use anonymity. Gov rather not fight crypto if it's trackable.

3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that seems to be not a choice by then.
is nothing we can avoid by then.
If most of all honest* miners agree to stay on one chain and fight (illegal) forks no matter the cost it wouldn't need any changes. Just the announcement would be enough. When most transactions are off chain anyways confirations required could take weeks,d'be damm expensive and must be approved by CA anyways.

A CA wouldn't have the powes todays govs have so I don't see many people protesting. Current bitcoiners excludet, but who are 350.000 people to the world anyways ...

6.) Goverments are stupid, but not the kind of stupid most people think of. Once BTC gets significant it will be overregulated. These regulations will be (as usual) useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general, but alts might be able to adapt to them.


Since this thread is about the problems of altcoins I want to bring in the following real problems. The article in the OP and it's conclusion is biased and not plausible. Please don't argue that most of his busted myths on altcoins aren't actually true. I know that.

1.) Confilicting Requirements
It would have to be innovative and very lucrative for early adopters to reach a critical size to be even noticed. For later adoption it mustn't favour early adopters too much and be conservative.

2.) It's unlikely that bitcoin is flawed
in a way that it will have to be replaced within the next few years. Most flaws won't be noticeable by most people within this decade.

3.) Time and gamechanging innovations are running out.
The timewindow for establishing a new crypto is closing and the most basic features bitcoin lackes are already used by other alts or in development. It will be harder and harder to establish a new crypto in the future.

4.) Regulation
Whem gov finished regulation on bitcoin they will be against anything new that isn't regulated yet. Anonymity could be a requirement by the community and also a reason to outlaw that crypto.

5.) Bubbles and Risk
Price bubles and risk in general are higher on altcoins. Noone ever invested in bitcoin lost money if he just had the patients to stick to it. A serious altcoin bubble could do enourmous damage and won't recover like btc.

6.) You will get super rich, no risk or skill involved
Scamcoins won't always be so primitive and easy to spot. Madoff had stolen billions and a premine isn't the only way to grab some fool's btcs. A succesful scamcoin could keep serious players away from alternative coins.

EDITED
*) I mean they don't doublespend, freeze funds, delay transactions, ...

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November 11, 2013, 02:56:13 AM
 #165

Ah fuck it, I'll take a stab at this

1) Problem was really "discovered" apparently three years ago, and is not actually a problem. The people who wrote that recent paper made some glaring mistakes and assumptions regarding mining and the bitcoin economy, not the least of which is that the network doesn't care when you mined a block, just when it was broadcast. Being selfish and holding a block while mining the next one has a huge risk that someone else will mine a block and push it out to the network before you push your own out, making your block worthless. In short, #1 is not an issue.

2) Similar to #1, since this attack is costly to perform, and is extremely risky. Plus 0.9 may address it in part, since it will be the merchant that will be receiving, checking, and broadcasting transactions.

3) Its not the same as being owned by the government, because miners will still not have control over the currency. Only over transactions. And as long as two pools are competing for fees and mining revenue, they will continue to process as many transactions as they can. Also, the world is large. Instead of one government, you Han have many mining corps all around the world. Even the wealthiest corporation in the world, Exxon, still has tons of competition.
As for the ballooning blockchain, that will get pruned long before that becomes a problem.

4) Then I guess there is no fix, until bitcoin comes out with a fix.

5) Money is not valuable because you can print it at home, money is valuable because it is useful for transaction and commerce. Apt coins are mostly a waste of time and resources. Just because lots of people mine them will not automatically mean that they will be used in trade.
During the MtGox hack in the summer of 2011, it was revealed that there were over 65,000 MtGox users. That number very likely doubled or tripled by the summer of 2012. By January of 2013, MtGox was adding 25,000 new users every month, and my March/April that number was 50,000 every month.Services like instawallet boasted of having over 1.5 million accounts, and Blockchain alone recently said they had over 300,000 (which I found surprisingly low). And now we also have China, which surpassed even MtGox, and may have possibly doubled the number of bitcoin users around the world (though I suspect it may account for 1\3 of new users). Either way, your 350,000 number is extremely wrong, and was likely surpassed over a year ago, before we had Cyprus, Silk Road news, and China. (My personal guess on total number of bitcoin users is 2mil to 3mil users)

Bitcoin is much less vulnerable to competition than eBay is.
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November 11, 2013, 10:25:35 AM
 #166

Bitcoin is much less vulnerable to competition than eBay is.
I wouldn't say that at all.

Ebay is a good example where the network effect also drives people to one single company, but I don't see bitcoin to be profiting from that much against crypto competition. The more people using ebay increases the benefits from using just ebay over any competition, but on bitcoin it isn't bitcoin exclusive. Altcoins also profit from more people using bitcoin, so that doesn't make them much worse against bitcoins.

It's actually beneficial to use more than one crypto so I expect competition for btc to grow once people realize that.
The MC of altcoins is still very small compared to bitcoins, so more people using altcoins could trigger a networkeffect against bitcoin. More people using altcoin drive prices up which increases benefits for people that use altcoins.

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AnonyMint
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November 11, 2013, 01:10:00 PM
Last edit: November 11, 2013, 03:12:06 PM by AnonyMint
 #167

Ah fuck it, I'll take a stab at this

1) Problem was really "discovered" apparently three years ago, and is not actually a problem.

Incorrect, read the rebuttal from the author of the paper:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110209017

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/09/no-you-dint/

Also the most prominent Bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen is concerned and put out a threat to anyone who attempts the attack.

The people who wrote that recent paper made some glaring mistakes and assumptions regarding mining and the bitcoin economy, not the least of which is that the network doesn't care when you mined a block, just when it was broadcast. Being selfish and holding a block while mining the next one has a huge risk that someone else will mine a block and push it out to the network before you push your own out, making your block worthless. In short, #1 is not an issue.

Incorrect, section 6.1 Problem of the research paper refutes your statement above and explains how a Sybil attack is used to foil that "huge risk". Even without the Sybil attack, if a miner controls 33% of the network, he can accomplish the selfish-mine.

2) Similar to #1, since this attack is costly to perform, ...

Incorrect, the computation of a share is orders-of-magnitude less than the network PoW difficulty. Therefor, if you know any math, then you understand that the cost is asymmetrical and falls on the pool.

...and is extremely risky.

Incorrect, botnets can be used to supply unlimited throw away IP addresses, even if you need an ASIC to do the computation.

Plus 0.9 may address it in part, since it will be the merchant that will be receiving, checking, and broadcasting transactions.

Huh? Please explain.

3) Its not the same as being owned by the government, because miners will still not have control over the currency. Only over transactions.

Nonsense. Control over all transactions is control over a currency.

Additionally, a monopoly on mining means you can fork any feature you want, i.e. turn it back into fiat again in cohoots with the government.

And don't argue back that the community can just fork or create a new coin. Remember you are arguing that altcoins are impossible! You would then be arguing for our position. Wink

And as long as two pools are competing for fees and mining revenue, they will continue to process as many transactions as they can.

Cartelization means there is no more competition. Cartelization is the natural outcome of society, especially Bitcoin puts the capability on a silver platter by ending debasement and relying only on transaction fees as I explained in detail in my prior post.

Also, the world is large. Instead of one government, you Han have many mining corps all around the world. Even the wealthiest corporation in the world, Exxon, still has tons of competition.

If you believe oil is not cartelized and fascist with the government, then I guess you should continue with your delusion. My father was the head attorney for West Coast division of Exxon, and later a general counsel, and later a consultant attorney for THUMS, a consortium of all the majors.

Yes the world is a big place and that is our main hope for an altcoin to continue operating if the G20 filters the internet. Some where in some third world country, the internet will still function. And so the new economy will migrate there.

As for the ballooning blockchain, that will get pruned long before that becomes a problem.

Not if mining is cartelized, because Amazon.com will have every incentive to let it grow so that others can't handle it.

And pruning only works for entirely spent coins. With all the dust (SatoshiDice), this is looking to be less effective than once thought.

4) Then I guess there is no fix, until bitcoin comes out with a fix.

Bitcoin will never add anonymity to the coin, because this would thrust it into a different regulatory state, which will upset those who want Bitcoin to be government compliant and would want to ride the G20 Titantic down the global sovereign debt collapse circa 2016 - 2020. Meanwhile a little anonymous altcoin can be sucking up all that capital that really wants to survive that implosion and thus appreciating much faster than Bitcoin and surviving after the implosion when Bitcoin will become intertwined with that SHTF government hunting down all wealth outcome coming.

You can't play along with government when it is dying. It takes everything down with it, because the socialism is bankrupt and is on auto-pilot down the toilet bowl. How many examples from history do I need to cite? Start with Wiemar then Nazi Germany.

5) Money is not valuable because you can print it at home, money is valuable because it is useful for transaction and commerce.

We already explained upthread that as long as there exists a liquid exchange between altcoins and Bitcoin, then the altcoins can be used in all the same commerce as Bitcoin.

Apt coins are mostly a waste of time and resources. Just because lots of people mine them will not automatically mean that they will be used in trade.

There you go again with your illogical FUD, forgetting what we already explained upthread.

During the MtGox hack in the summer of 2011, it was revealed that there were over 65,000 MtGox users. That number very likely doubled or tripled by the summer of 2012. By January of 2013, MtGox was adding 25,000 new users every month, and my March/April that number was 50,000 every month.Services like instawallet boasted of having over 1.5 million accounts, and Blockchain alone recently said they had over 300,000 (which I found surprisingly low). And now we also have China, which surpassed even MtGox, and may have possibly doubled the number of bitcoin users around the world (though I suspect it may account for 1\3 of new users). Either way, your 350,000 number is extremely wrong, and was likely surpassed over a year ago, before we had Cyprus, Silk Road news, and China. (My personal guess on total number of bitcoin users is 2mil to 3mil users)

That 350,000 number comes from someone who has 10,000 Bitcoins and is has a positive reputation in these forums.

Even if it is 2 - 3 million, that is still pathetic in 4 years. I will repeat that I had a million+ users in 2 years for a web page editor back in 1999 - 2001, and the internet is 10 times more users now.

Bitcoin is much less vulnerable to competition than eBay is.

It is much more vulnerable for the same reason that I explained to you upthread when you provided the HTTP example.

Ebay is not decentralized, and cryptocurrencies are.

Any way, I am growing weary of debating with an idiot as demonstrated in this post. Especially don't have patience given you hurled a "fuck" in the recent post and character assassination insult at me upthread. Present some new arguments, and check your facts properly, else I am likely to ignore you.

The following comment from the discussion of that 25% attack research paper is applicable here:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110508599

Quote
Alas, Bitcoin has become so riven with speculators, zealots and fanatics that the implications of this will be ignored, in fact more than that they will flame the messenger.

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November 11, 2013, 04:39:03 PM
 #168

I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1.) I don't see any new problems with that at all.

See my prior reply to Rassah.

1.+2.) Who expected that mining will allways be cooperative.

It must be "incentive-compatible", else it will fail.

4.) Can be seen as advantage aswell. It's better to have the option than be forced to use anonymity. Gov rather not fight crypto if it's trackable.

It is possible to offer anonymity built-in as an option to an altcoin. I have written down an algorithm. Then you get both advantages, without the disadvantage I explained for Bitcoin.

The other advantage of the anonymity algorithm I wrote down is it fixes another thing broken in Bitcoin:

6. No feature to prevent pools from growing to a significant percentage of the PoW network difficulty.

3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that seems to be not a choice by then.

I tried to distill the information content of that but ended up with the empty set.

Seems like you are trying to say that if a cartel takes over Bitcoin mining as I explained in my prior post, then the cartel won't secure the network. Well they might secure just fine, except of course when they don't like you (and your transactions). And they would include the government, since cartels don't exist without contrivance and conspiring with the government.

Seems like you are saying that if we don't like it, it won't happen. Incorrect. What we like has nothing to do with the outcome, rather it is what we support and what is the game theory of what we support and use.

If most of all honest* miners agree to stay on one chain and fight (illegal) forks no matter the cost it wouldn't need any changes. Just the announcement would be enough.

How do you fight when the masses are happily sending their transactions to Amazon.com?

Seems you haven't really thought this out deeply. I have. I published an article on it and defended 100s of comments:

Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch

One of the published copies that appeared all over the internet:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39704.html

6.) Goverments are stupid, but not the kind of stupid most people think of. Once BTC gets significant it will be overregulated. These regulations will be (as usual) useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general, but alts might be able to adapt to them.

Cartels are not stupid. They control and own the government now. The government is run as a Commons and the cartels let it suffer from Tragedy of the Commons, while they privatize profits and socialize losses.

Since this thread is about the problems of altcoins I want to bring in the following real problems. The article in the OP and it's conclusion is biased and not plausible. Please don't argue that most of his busted myths on altcoins aren't actually true. I know that.

1.) Confilicting Requirements
It would have to be innovative and very lucrative for early adopters to reach a critical size to be even noticed. For later adoption it mustn't favour early adopters too much and be conservative.

Agreed.

2.) It's unlikely that bitcoin is flawed
in a way that it will have to be replaced within the next few years. Most flaws won't be noticeable by most people within this decade.

Mostly agreed, but for example the inability to mine it on a regular computer is already noticed by everyone and lamented by many (if not most).

The anonymity and taint issue are a concern to those who are (or are not, because of lack thereof,) moving big money through Bitcoin.

The lack of a feature to limit the size of pools is a concern of everyone.

3.) Time and gamechanging innovations are running out.
The timewindow for establishing a new crypto is closing and the most basic features bitcoin lackes are already used by other alts or in development. It will be harder and harder to establish a new crypto in the future.

Agreed on time is crucial. Disagree that existing altcoins have anything. Only Litecoin and barely.

The only thing other altcoins have that is unique is PoS and I think it has no future, but I could be wrong.

4.) Regulation
Whem gov finished regulation on bitcoin they will be against anything new that isn't regulated yet.

But they have a problem. How do they write a law to differentiate cryptocurrencies by feature? We can easily design and program circles around their legislation.

So I don't think so. They will continue with adding regulation which will apply to all altcoins too.

4.) Regulation
Anonymity could be a requirement by the community and also a reason to outlaw that crypto.

Not if the improved and integrated anonymity is optional.

5.) Bubbles and Risk
Noone ever invested in bitcoin lost money if he just had the patients to stick to it.

Ditto Litecoin, because it is the only altcoin with a useful feature, i.e. no ASICs and thus GPUs can still mine.

Price bubles and risk in general are higher on altcoins.  A serious altcoin bubble could do enourmous damage and won't recover like btc.

This will shakeout all the wannabe altcoins, analogous to the dot.com crash of 2000-1. The internet startups are still continuing to get funding and IPOs now.

6.) You will get super rich, no risk or skill involved
Scamcoins won't always be so primitive and easy to spot. Madoff had stolen billions and a premine isn't the only way to grab some fool's btcs. A succesful scamcoin could keep serious players away from alternative coins.

There is nothing wrong with a TINY premine if it is used only for funding the open source developments of the coin and all payments from the premine are publicly explained.

I think we are dealing with intelligent investors. They are becoming more astute.

I don't believe in Malthusian "this is the end of the world" or finality of outcomes. Rather the market adjusts and improves, not get more stupid as you claim.

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November 11, 2013, 08:18:09 PM
Last edit: November 11, 2013, 10:40:14 PM by St.Bit
 #169

Ah fuck it, I'll take a stab at this

1) Problem was really "discovered" apparently three years ago, and is not actually a problem.

Incorrect, read the rebuttal from the author of the paper:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110209017

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/09/no-you-dint/

Also the most prominent Bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen is concerned and put out a threat to anyone who attempts the attack.

After reading the 2nd link I thought more about it and there is by far more to this.

The fix for this to 25% is essential for bitcoin or it can easily been overtaken by goverments without fighting the community directly. Ever thought of beeing legally obligated to join such pool run by your gov, most miners would follow regardless if they are legally required or not.

I have canged my opinion on the Anonymity. I belive it might be a necessity for POS cryptos to be decentralized, but I haven't thought about this yet.

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November 11, 2013, 09:12:20 PM
Last edit: November 12, 2013, 12:28:48 AM by St.Bit
 #170

I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1.) I don't see any new problems with that at all.
See my prior reply to Rassah.
You convinced me that this is an issue, take a look my previous post (after yours, befor this one)

I think without the fix this is a very serious thread to bitcoin. Just Centralisation on its own is unavoidable (but not new) for bitcoin.

1.+2.) Who expected that mining will allways be cooperative.

It must be "incentive-compatible", else it will fail.
Miners are supposed to be coperative, but even if they aren't it doesn't effect bitcoin as long as they are still doing the job they are supposed to do. Goal was peaceful mining, but actually we just need mining.

3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that seems to be not a choice by then.

I tried to distill the information content of that but ended up with the empty set.
And you got it wrong. I didn't disagree on what you think I did, nor did I ever assume that "if we don't like it, it won't happen."*

*Should have been said better. I edited that to make it clearer.

I noticed we often use words totally different. I don't want to waste time on defining f.e. honest so I repeat what I wanted to say as dry and conclusionless as I can. Every smart person has to conclude anyways for it's own.

In the future fees won't be able to cover the cost required to run enough miners to keep bitcoin safe using todays rules.
A mayority of miners can decide on an other method to find the right chain, currently it's lengh of blocks, but it doesn't have to be that way. The new method will have to be accepted and used by the rest of miners, regardless if the like or hate it.

If they whish that could be a central authority that has to approve every new block and so punish illegal (=what they do not allow) behavour. Free transactions would probably be one of them,but my statement was simply that fees will be very high and recivers could require many confirmations. On chain transactions will be a rare event so this doesn't upset many.

My new thoughts on this topic:
Paybacks on fees would probably be considers illegal and wouldn't end well for that miner. If a cartel hasn't 51% already all other miner would be totally against free txt. This forces everyone that hasn't the ability to mine to use the miners off chain transactions. Connection between miner networks could be done from each miner using his own blocks. It's free for them althought they still have to pay a huge fee.*

*)Interresting method to launder btc's, isn't it?

I don't know what your definition on cartel is, but these miner would still be compeating against each other. A 1% attack can be prevented be forcing a timestamp after each block. Even deposits and withdraws would be free, but you won't send to other people accounts. Rules on the miners off chains would have to following the laws of the miners nation so they can't fusion.


6.) Goverments are stupid, but not the kind of stupid most people think of. Once BTC gets significant it will be overregulated. These regulations will be (as usual) useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general, but alts might be able to adapt to them.

Cartels are not stupid. They control and own the government now. The government is run as a Commons and the cartels let it suffer from Tragedy of the Commons, while they privatize profits and socialize losses.
Agreed, but that is my definition of a goverment going full retard. It might be smart for individuals in gov, but very stupid for it as whole. The resulting regulations will be "useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general" since some might profit from that.

There is a difference between smart acting individuals in a stupid group and smart (acting) group of individuals.
I was talking about the stupid goverment, not stupid politicians. Hope these will burn in hell though.


4.) Regulation
Whem gov finished regulation on bitcoin they will be against anything new that isn't regulated yet.

But they have a problem. How do they write a law to differentiate cryptocurrencies by feature? We can easily design and program circles around their legislation.

So I don't think so. They will continue with adding regulation which will apply to all altcoins too.
AML, KYC and other market barriers aren't a problem for established companies, but small and new ones might strugle with this. These are usually fixed costs for everyone, but that fixum could be more than total revenues for some and less than coffee budget for others.

Regulations could also be made in a way that only bitcoin can actually comply.

"It's has to be the same for everyone since so it's fair to everyone." is unfortunately the way most people think.

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November 12, 2013, 01:31:47 AM
 #171

In the future fees won't be able to cover the cost required to run enough miners to keep bitcoin safe using todays rules.
A mayority of miners can decide on an other method to find the right chain, currently it's lengh of blocks, but it doesn't have to be that way. The new method will have to be accepted and used by the rest of miners, regardless if the like or hate it.

If they whish that could be a central authority that has to approve every new block and so punish illegal (=what they do not allow) behavour. Free transactions would probably be one of them

That is not PoW. That is not a decentralized currency.

,but my statement was simply that fees will be very high and recivers could require many confirmations.

I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

On chain transactions will be a rare event so this doesn't upset many.

Off chain transactions mean you trust a centralized entity, e.g. a coin laundry.

That is not a decentralized currency, unless you count many such independent entities as being another form of decentralization.

My new thoughts on this topic:
Paybacks on fees would probably be considers illegal and wouldn't end well for that miner.

There is no way for Bitcoin to make such a thing illegal. Only a government can do that, and then we wouldn't have a decentralized currency any more.

If a cartel hasn't 51% already all other miner would be totally against free txt.

We have that now and they are not stopping it.

It will be impossible to stop hypothetical refunds of tx fees, because miners can't identify which are such transactions to boycott those blocks.

This forces everyone that hasn't the ability to mine to use the miners off chain transactions. Connection between miner networks could be done from each miner using his own blocks. It's free for them althought they still have to pay a huge fee.*

I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

*)Interresting method to launder btc's, isn't it?

There is no way to launder Bitcoins, because everyone's identity is ultimately knowable, so even if you do a perfect job on your own anonymity, you can be discovered via process of elimination of the those who are not anonymous.

I don't know what your definition on cartel is, but these miner would still be compeating against each other. A 1% attack can be prevented be forcing a timestamp after each block. Even deposits and withdraws would be free, but you won't send to other people accounts. Rules on the miners off chains would have to following the laws of the miners nation so they can't fusion.

You are talking to yourself. It is impossible to understand what you are trying to say.

If you are not going to write clearly, I will stop reading.

Thanks for the upthread discussion, which was more productive than this latest post of yours.

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November 12, 2013, 01:53:22 AM
 #172

That new selfish-mine attack means (after the proposed fix is implemented) that we will end up with only one pool, if any pool ever gains 25% or more of the network hashrate and employs that attack.

Thus the only way to make any changes to Bitcoin will be if that one pool agrees, or if we fork the blockchain and create a new pool and see how users come over to the new pool.

On further study, I have been unsuccessful in designing a way to limit the size of pools.

So you want to make damn sure you are using a pool which has anonymity built in, so when it is the only pool someday then the government can't compel it to take certain (e.g. AML, KYC) actions based on your identity.

Yet even so the government could conceivably compel the single pool to turn off the anonymity feature, and peers would have to upgrade their protocol. Any attempt to leave for another pool would cause a fork in the blockchain if the single pool was compelled to not accept blocks from a pool which did not comply.

The natural outcome is thus many coins and many forks.

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November 12, 2013, 02:12:09 AM
 #173

I proposed a solution to the selfish-mine attack:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1118888072

Quote
I propose a solution to this selfish-mine attack. There should be a new kind of peer which is responsible for relaying block solutions to the network, it should be paid per share (regardless of whether a block solution is found) and the oblivious share fix[1] should be employed in the blockchain and by this new type of peer.

Thus this new type of peer has no incentive to be selfish. And the rest of the network can't know which shares are block solutions, until this new type of announces the block solution.

[1] https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_analysis.pdf#page=29

The problem is if existing vested interests resist this fix and blockchain hard fork, and instead go for the monopoly take over.

I would be watching carefully what happens now to Bitcoin. The value could plummet depending on the resolution of this near-term, once everyone understands this is a "do or die time" juncture..

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November 12, 2013, 02:30:57 AM
 #174

I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

Sorry, I thought that was clear.
It was your response to my response to your 3rd problem of bitcoins long ago.
I included a quote from it so I thought that was obvios, but it wasn't.

Here it is:
3. Bitcoin stops giving coin rewards to miners in 2040, but the rate of debasement drops below 1% by 2033 and gets relatively low by 2020s compared to today's 11% and the recent past of several times that rate. Everyone thinks transaction fees are a solution, but they haven't even really considered this deeply. Transaction fees could be 0% (or refunded if mandatory) by large corporations, e.g. Amazon.com. This would drive most transactions to them, and they might withhold sending these out to other miners. Thus all mining WILL be owned by cartels and banks in the future. This is the same as owned by the government, since in fascism (that we have now in the world), corporations and governments cooperate (just review the NSA scandals with large internet companies revealed by Snowden if you doubt that you already live in a fledgling fascism). Btw, this takeover of mining by corporations was predicted by Satoshi and is supported by the core Bitcoin devs. You can find the relevant post somewhere on this site, I had the link to the post once before.

Note the ballooning multi-GB (eventually to be TBs) blockchain (which the Mini-blockchain design proposes to fix) also leads to either pools or large corporations doing the mining. And not fixing #2 above, means pools can be attacked later. Thus another factor that will drive Bitcoin mining to cartels in the future.
3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives for an old bitcoin to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that is nothing we can avoid by then.
If most of all miners agree to stay on one chain and fight (illegal) forks no matter the cost it wouldn't need any changes. Just the announcement would be enough. When most transactions are off chain anyways confirations required could take weeks,d'be damm expensive and must be approved by CA anyways.

A CA wouldn't have the powes todays govs have so I don't see many people protesting. Current bitcoiners excludet, but who are 350.000 people to the world anyways ...

2nd Edited to be easier to follow.
and the rest of the conversation

That is not PoW. That is not a decentralized currency.

Yes, it isn't.
The bitcoin protocoll can be hacked to act against Bitcoins initial intentions.

I belive this is interresting since this will be a way that shows the bitcoin network will be safe once it doesn't generate any new coins anymore. You showed that fees alone couldn't do that.

You love decentralisation and decentral PoW, but most people by then would rather have a working bitcoin than that.

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November 12, 2013, 03:01:20 AM
Last edit: November 12, 2013, 04:50:56 AM by AnonyMint
 #175

Miners can't fight if they don't have 51% of the hashrate. They won't have if the cartel is taking most of the revenue away by withholding transactions.

Yes the masses will accept the cartels and government takeover converting Bitcoin to a fiat, as long as the masses get their goods and services.

This is another reason I think Bitcoin was designed to be the one-world digital currency controlled from Brussels. I think Bitcoin was planted by the elite, and not some fictional person "Satoshi". Perhaps not the same elite as who are in the government, i.e. Obama and Bernanke may not know about this.

At this time, Bitcoiners don't care any more, as long as they get wealthy holding BTC. Yet they fail to understand the bankrupt G20 will be coming to take away all their wealth. Bitcoin is not anonymous for any one. France is taxing millionaires at 75% and we are still early into the coming global economic collapse. And most of you are not reporting your capital gains, thus come fees, penalties, interest, and JAIL TIME. Some Europeans (or Chinese) think they are safe because if they live abroad or otherwise take advantage of a tax loophole, yet governments never play fair. They can retroactively clawback everything, including what they previously promised were non-taxable domiciles. When the masses are threatened by debt implosion, they will support the government to do this crap.

Don't think you can just convert to another asset, as "clawbacks" apply (ever since MF Global).

And you can't erase the BTC holdings you've already had, it is all on the public ledger forever. And the anonymity gets weaker over time, as more and more people make mistakes which can be traced back through the blockchain. Remember the NSA is storing everything, they will know who traded what and when. UK and other major G20 nations have similar operations and data sharing arrangements.

You can't run and you can't hide, not even on the top of some isolated mountain in Chile (where they recently tracked down a fugitive suffering from frostbite).

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November 12, 2013, 04:59:07 AM
 #176

This is another reason I think Bitcoin was designed to be the one-world digital currency controlled from Brussels. I think Bitcoin was planted by the elite, and not some fictional person "Satoshi".
Don't you think this a really long shot?

Strange that we agree with that much although our conclutions are 100% different.

Yes the masses will accept the cartels and government takeover converting Bitcoin to a fiat, as long as the masses get their goods and services.
A "crypto" run by goverments could replace bitcoin since most people (including me) don't have such an extreme worldview like you.

I don't expect fiat to be replaced by bitcoin or any other system unless it fails catastrophically. This would require more than just EUR,USD to loose all of it's value. I find it even more unlikely that goverments will try (or even succeed) to change bitcoin to fiat like crypto. Not going to happen.

On the other hand would it possible (and more favourable for gov) to lauch a pseudo crypto as alternative. A 1:1 fixing with that nations fiat system could be acepted by most people. Will be interresting to see how much anonymity people will be willing to sacrifice, but I expect that to be enourmous. Like todays currencies it will be a legal tender so you will be forced to accept it by law.

Such fiat crypto would be a serious thread for bitcoin and her sisters ...

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November 12, 2013, 05:35:57 AM
 #177

It's actually beneficial to use more than one crypto

How so? To me using altcoins only adds more friction.
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November 12, 2013, 06:02:20 AM
 #178

There are no arguments against altcoins, because paying a 1% exchange fee for BTC to Altcoin exchange is exactly the same as paying the 0% fee for just using Bitcoin directly, and besides, government owns and controls everything, with the help of Amazon, so why even bother with bitcoins.
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November 12, 2013, 10:32:41 AM
 #179

It's actually beneficial to use more than one crypto

How so? To me using altcoins only adds more friction.

Who will pay for the friction isn't who is going to decide.

The most part  of the cost of having to accept f.e litecoin aswell will have to be to be paid by the shop. Like credid card fees where most of the fee (70-90%) isn't even paid by the customer. A shop doesn't care if btc is cheaper or not vs LTC to accept, it cares if accepting LTC makes them more profit or not. It does.


Reducing volatility (diverstvication) and risk

Having most money in only one asset is a bad idea since the up's and downs would drive most people insane. That's why everyone with brain would never put all his money in just one stock or asset. Splitting it up mathematically reduces how much the value fluctuates over time, that's a huge advantage for a individual.

Even if you 100% belive that bitcoin will alwasy outperform anything else you can't be 100% sure about it. The same is with stocks. Pick the health industry and you maby get it right to predict them, but that one beats the market and it's peergroup ...

I think that these are the most improtant ones, but faster confirmations might be an issue for some uses aswell. All In on bitcoin is a risky bet on crypto and on altcoins having less than 3% of uses. It's safer just to bet on the crypto by also buying a few (10%) serious altcoins.

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November 12, 2013, 01:10:00 PM
Last edit: November 12, 2013, 02:51:59 PM by AnonyMint
 #180

Good rebuttal St.Bit and your diversification reasoning will be more true if there is a serious altcoin that is appreciating faster than Bitcoin. Also there is no reason the exchange fee should remain 1%, because the exchange is not a market maker (i.e. has no capital risk) and is simply matching bids and asks, thus competition should drive this near to 0% since it is a very low overhead business.

Sure there is a bid-ask spread cost, as with any exchange of anything, but spread always decreases with volume.

Another reason is as we have explained upthread, it is impossible due to vested mining interests for Bitcoin to adopt every new feature and improvement. I don't even think Bitcoin can adopt my suggested fix for the 25% selfish-mining attack. If they don't, and an altcoin does, that is going to start to make people realize Bitcoin can't keep up with critical improvements. I shared that fix with Bitcoin, because I know damn well they can't implement it due to vested interests. Wink

Bitcoin hasn't been competed with seriously, but this will change before Christmas 2013.

P.S. Rassah I refuted your reply to my comment about the selfish-mining.

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