Bitcoin Forum

I’m not a native speaker, so please be patient with my English.

I noticed just-dice.com in the late June this year, and found it innovative compared with satoshidice.com, and was of course entirely not aware of satoshidice.com would buy back all of its shares on the market.

“Wow! It’s cool! I can be the bank (albeit “part of the bank”)!” I thought. And I invested several thousand coins on just-dice.com. The profit came nice… until one day…

I figure out there’s a hole in the game. I told what I thought to the site’s owner, Dooglus. Partly because of my poor English, I wasn’t capable of convincing him. (sorry, I don’t think I should write up what the hole really is here.) I was told that I was in a gambler’s fallacy. And for some days, I thought I was in a gambler’s fallacy too.

Two weeks later, I divested, and tried to prove I was right: what if I could win? I did it. But got addicted. When I was up, like 1000BTC, I thought, wow, now you must believe me! But whether Dooglus believe me or not, I just couldn’t stop, I played, or gambled, and continuously won. I was up like 4400BTC.

(An incident happened, which I have no interest to discuss here. They call me thief here: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gambler-cheats-satoshidice-competitor-just-dice-out-of-1300-btc/ However, Dooglus knew how that exactly happened. He didn’t disallow my further investment and play.)

Meanwhile, I found “be part of the bank” is not as beautiful as I once thought.

• My investment had been continually diluted.
• I couldn’t enjoy shareholder’s benefit as I once invested on satoshidice.com (and in the August, we were told that satoshidice.com wanted to buy back all the shares in the market).
• In the long-run, people would place smaller and smaller bets. Gone are the days people placed 10k in a single bet. With my investment diluted, profit has to drop.

I sometimes switch from invest and divest. However, I was told I was in a gambler's fallacy again! I do respect Dooglus and his girl friend Deb, but I found I have no way to convince them I was NOT in a gambler's fallacy. At last, I even found it's almost impossible to convince them that I'm not a gambler at all!

I decided to develop my own dice game site, one that supports both on-chain (compatible to SD) and off-chain mode (as fast as JD), and most important of all, the site should go IPO, by which investors could enjoy an appreciation of share price.

I did develop a site, towtoad.com (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272092), but it turned out the layout was too ugly to stand. I just have no designing talent. When the towtoad.com was in public beta, a guy called Martin (clearly a pseudo name, since his last name is called “Gale”) approached me, and we discussed a lot. I found one of his ideas especially interesting, building a users’ tree, give them incentives to invite other players. “Wow, it’s genius, the site would go popular by itself!” So I decided to give up my own developing (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=280036), and started working on an IPO plan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=288036.0).

I won more than 4k from just-dice.com, so I’d happy to buy IPO shares with these coins, since the cost of these 4K BTC is zero for me. If I can own a lion’s share of the IPO shares (40% of IPO shares), I think it’s enough for me. I’ve made that money out of nothing.

oh, BTW, I won another 300BTC two days ago from JD, and spread part of them to the investors of letsdice.com. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=288036.msg3089090#msg3089090)

reserved

reserved again.

You are angry about what?  ;D

more reserved. Stocking up popcorn for dramas.

No drama at all. nothing to argue with. :)

So, is there any proof you actually won this? Also, you haven't found a way to beat the house, As KoS said, you're in gamblers fallacy, quit while you're ahead.

some of my accounts:

https://i.imgur.com/FQT986i.png

https://i.imgur.com/MT5KMUJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/h87HPZX.png

Well, it's very doubtful, but stop while you're ahead, you WILL lose in the end.

they said: "You WILL lose", then I played again, won.
they said again: "You WILL lose", then I played again, won.
they said again and again: "You WILL lose", then I played again, won...
THEREFORE:
I have nothing to say at all about this.

That means you're lucky, but you will lose eventually. Also, those screenshots mean nothing, they're very easy to edit :
http://puu.sh/4laRF.png

you're just one of "them". :) give you another pic while you're replying this:

https://i.imgur.com/ph1EGE1.png

period.

1) tl ; dr.
2) who cares about you?
3) you got lucky, it does not mean that there is a hole in the game. Some people play lotto and wins millions of euros :)

you care a lot, otherwise why bother to reply? DON'T reply this, please... :) ;D

cool. so can this be withdrawn?

It's not about skills, It's about luck.  I don't know how you won the 4K BTC, but if the coins weren't yours in the first place, I suggest you give em back ;)  If they were yours and you won fair and square, hurra, good job, and start some giveaways for us noobs ;)

Obviously...

Please don't stop winning. You should play full time and go pro.

Thieves rarely want to discuss their crimes, so it's no surprise you have "no interest to discuss" it here.  Honest people, like doog, do not let thieves sway them from their honest business plans which is why he allows you to return and play.  So, in fact, nothing has changed.  You are still a thief peddling a scam and doog is an honest person that understands math and allows you to gamble (and eventually lose) your life savings.  Nothing to see here, folks.

If you don't publish the 'hole', someone else will find it and exploit it (if it works). You have a duty to publish what you know if you want to be seen as open and honest.

Further, investing in a new site means I have to be able to trust the owners math ability. If you publish your analysis of the exploit you found and I find your analysis sound, then I'd be much more likely ot invest with you. Plus you will have saved JD investors from potential losses since a provable exploit will need to be fixed.

I told dooglus about that in details. but I was told I was in a gambler's fallcy. so I've already given up on explaining.

I've tried amend that "hole" (if I'm not in a gambler's fallacy) on letsdice.com. Since LD is going to open, you'll see that. no secret on LD.

He claimed in the just-dice chat room to have sold it to two people for 100btc each.  Yes, he is trying to make money off the "hole".  Seems legit, right?  What was the web address where people can buy it from you again, towtoad?

Edit:  nevermind, found it! For the bargain basement price of 111 BTC:  :D  http://nakowa.herokuapp.com/

I told dooglus about that in details. but I was told I was in a gambler's fallcy. so I've already given up on explaining.
[/quote]

Telling dooglus is not the same as publishing it publicly. If dooglus is wrong, then you'll find more investors might move to your site. If he's right, then you've fixed a hole that doesn't need fixing and may have left your self open to some other exploit in the process - in which case you'll want to know that.


I might see that if you weren't being so goddamn inscrutable :)

Telling dooglus is not the same as publishing it publicly. If dooglus is wrong, then you'll find more investors might move to your site. If he's right, then you've fixed a hole that doesn't need fixing and may have left your self open to some other exploit in the process - in which case you'll want to know that.


I might see that if you weren't being so goddamn inscrutable :)
[/quote]

only in this single respect. nothing more.

You told me two different ideas of what the 'hole' is.  First you claimed the hole was that the min and max bets were too far apart:


but you don't start that low, and don't martingale.  So that didn't ring true, as I mentioned here:


Later you changed your story, saying that it's all about creating large variance, and relying on the 'fact' that WLWL is the most common sequence of results.  When I challenged you on that, you changed the subject to selling your 'strategy':



I don't know how that happened at all.  You claim you left 1300 BTC unprotected on a laptop in a public cafe when you went outside to smoke.  That's pretty hard to believe, but also impossible to disprove.  If true, it does seem somewhat negligent.  But I'm in no position to throw that word around having accidentally left the 1300 BTC in your account in the first place.

If you have so much BTC in your pockets you should start giving away some fortune to us poor people that merely wins 0.01BTC in a week.

Get out begger. I wouldn't take 50 BTC if towtoad offered it, he/she owes 1300 BTC the way I see it. Let the degenerate keep his winnings. According to the story he told Dooglus he thinks that a couple losses in a row increases your odds of the next one being a winner. WRONG.

Every roll is independent of the previous ones. There is no difference. You can bet .01 100x and lose them all and its still a 49.5% chance of winning if you bet 50 BTC on the next roll as Towtoad tried to argue saying its different with Dooglus. What a joke.

Interesting chat.  Doog, I hope you don't expect me to pay you 111 BTC for revealing your "hole."  ;D

This guy found a flaw on live roulette: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA

Oooh opus, can you please reveal his 'hole' to me??? You know I'm good for it!

Oh take it easy I was kidding.
From my side, I'm quite happy of the winnings I'm making myself on the casinos so I'm not caring how much he is winning nor I need his money.
I know how the dices works, and I know every roll is independent.
I had streaks of 12 winnings like I had streaks of 12 loosings. He had pure luck like a guy I met and saw playing an online poker tournament, and without even knowing the value of cards he won the first place.
Same stuff.

The thing I don't seem to understand is why wouldn't you privately fund LetsDice as you were upset with your investments being diluted in Just-Dice. Instead you encourage others to invest by giving them incentives for doing so further diluting your investment. This smells way too much like a ponzi.

In my opinion here is what is probably going to happen:
The owner creates the site, Towtoad invests, and then plays the game with the secret seeds told to him before he begins, and he slowly drains all of the other investors' monies. Then he claims he has an unbeatable strategy and tries making more funds off his illegitimate schemes.

The owner closes the site and splits the made off funds with Towtoad. And no one can fully prove that either party was involved in the bankroll being destroyed.

Sorry I think I am lost 19,601 BTC wagered with a profit of 47BTC and you have found a "hole".  I understand you are ending up with profit but thats a lot of risk to get 47BTC......  Thats .2% with the average bet around 4.3BTC sorry .2% is not worth it to me....  Investing in the bank has a better payout.

He profited over 4K Bitcoins

+1 possible

Towtoad, if dooglus has indeed just revealed what you consider to be his "hole", then you're in no position to be starting, running or otherwise being associated with a dice site. Your ideas show a complete lack of knowledge, and I don't want someone who knows less than me about probability running a site where probability determines investor profit.

20% * 45% = 9%, and the shares will not be diluted, so, I think 9% is great for me.

I don't quite understand why you think "encouraging others to invest" is equivalent to "further diluting investment"?

As soon as I saw the large colored font I knew it was this lying piece of shit talking shit.

He loves to jump to call out people with no evidenece of anything, just the words of one person.

Sad, sad little college age kid.  By the way, enjoy it up on Maryland on campus. ;)

what if towtoad's story is true?

They don't care. :)

Scammer

This is all a little confusing for some. This is what is going on:

First, Nakowa, Cici, Towtoad, Celeste are the same person, and yes he won 4000 bitcoin over a week or two. (This is for certain)

Nakowa is not hated because he won 4000 btc, he gave a good show and it was fair play, no worries. Nakowa is hated because of the 1300 bitcoin incident.

1300 bitcoin incident: Nakowa, this time playing as celeste won some more bitcoin. He withdrew and because it was a large amount Dooglus moved the coins straight from the cold wallet to Nakowa. However Dooglus forgot to deduct the 1300 bitcoin in Nakowa's account and one of either two things happened. 1) he decided to gamble again, knowing they were not his coins. He lost them all to the investors 2) someone at the cafe, went on to his laptop when he was smoking and gambled them all away (in celeste style betting of course)

Instead of Dooglus rolling back the database straight away he decided to take the hit out of own coins and the community on just dust got very angry at Nakowa. Then Dooglus couldn't stand the fact that he had just lost $150,000 of his own money for no real reason he then reverted the site investment back and regained the lost coins. This was the right thing to do and everyone supported him (me too, Dooglus I really think you're a good guy :p )

The unfortunate thing for Nakowa is that during the time that Dooglus was covering the loss people hated on Nakowa and till this day this is what a lot of the tension is about.

Moving on.

Nakowa also believes in a gamblers fallacy and believes that there is a hole in the fundamentals of the dice game over on JD. (I think Nakowa wrongly thinks WLWLWLWLWLWL is the most common pattern (I have mapped all the patterns and there is no difference except loses happen slightly more at 49.5% 2x)

For example LL and WW and WL and LW are almost equally as common with the loses showing up more often. I modelled this over more rolls than JD has processed. So Nakowa is wrong in my opinion about the hole. I also remember he said that he would be up if he only deposited 400 btc to prove bankroll had nothing to do with it. He lost the entire amount and had to deposit again, the second time he deposited 600 bitcoin and ended up well over 1000. Luck.

To be honest if Nakowa really knows its a hole he would come back with his whole stack and win the entire bankroll. 50,000 bitcoin is up for grabs on JD and he wouldn't have to bother investing in other dice sites.

Also if the person creating letsdice is really not Nakowa, unless Nakowa knows him in real life I am certain he will steal Nakowas coins. Thats why he made contact.

But its equally likely that the letsdice owner is Nakowa himself.

I think that clears up the Nakowa legacy.

My opinion, It was thrilling watching him play JD, never seen anything like it. Please come back and bet soon!

:p

donate to me and i will provide you with investment information :D the more donated the more information you receive.

1) You haven't even been on the forums long enough to know this story so you cannot judge whether it is true or not. Many agree with this statement and that Towtoad should have paid his 1300 BTC debt.
2) I am not "butthurt" over your comments with bitbook. What I am "butthurt" over is, when people who are obviously underage are asking questions about gambling. You should not be gambling in the first place.
3) I will PM the user who accused you of scamming. I will call greendot and find out who added the moneypak, they'll tell you if you're persistent enough.
4) Oh look you know I go to Maryland, would you happen to be Nickfor2, the degenerate who scams for hundred bucks? You sound very much like Xboxgames, who ran off with 5-15 BTC and wasn't too sharp on the specific types of betting himself. So yeah, everything about you screams a scammer, but sure I'll find out the info but if it turns out I'm right, I'll make sure to comment on every post you do til you leave and create a new account like you and all scammers eventually do.

Stay on topic or take it to PMs, I don't want to hear your raging.

Genius. The OP does not even understand probability and thus gambler's fallacy, and still he has the balls to create his own "dice" site, which he is running like a ponzi.

And people is investing in it, its really true that greed is so powerful that scammers will never run out of work. Never.

OP: you did not find any "hole". You are just playing Martingale with a big (thousands of coins) bankroll. If you play long enough, you will lose. That's it. And that's why some investors are begging you "to please go on playing".

Then, you are an untrustworthy scumbag. You are so dumb you think Martingale is a "hole", you indeed think you have found a vulnerability, and you are selling it for 111BTC (https://nakowa.herokuapp.com/). That's a scam of the lowest kind.

There was a man in Vegas who was on welfare and was a gambling addict and one day as normal he gambled his check in a casino but this time he went on a mad heater and won like a million or something but he didn't stop and kept on winning but then he started to lose....... and lose until he went bust.


TL'DR, You always lose in the end, trust me.

That was Anette ;p

She apparently tried 3 times and ended up winning a tournament.

well considering you are gambling on the internet and not in a real legal casino, I question your age as well.

For that matter, how can YOU question people's ages? Unless you track someone down individually there is no way to know, and simply asking a question about gambling does not make you not of age.

I guess I need to make a gambling site, considering the lack of logic people on this forum possess.

If you can build something better than Martin's, I'm fully supportive. :)

'Real legal casinos' don't have 100-sided dice, unless I am mistaken.  :-*

You forgot the possibilities given in decimals.

If this is a "hole" in logic on the site, and you are creating a competitive site to "show him how its done" I don't understand why you don't just abuse the "hole" in the site and win all of the investors coins and force everyone to invest into your scam, I mean site?  In fact at that point you wouldn't need investors you would already have a huge backing without having to share your "profit" from letsdice?  I dare you to put that 4K btc into JD and just abuse the system and prove to us non-believers that you are smarter than math.

"The story"

Seems legit bro.

Hi Towtoad, do u know each dice is an individual event? this is different from those card games where number of decks still making each game result somehow related to others.  Your rules for betting on result analysis and steak control will lose to mathematics in long run.  So to keep your profit you should stop dicing anymore.

When will lets-dice actually allow real bets? :/

Sep 15th. I was told. :)

ld invite link: https://letsdice.com/?invite_info=125

Just press it and enjoy it. thanks.

 Today is the 15th? Are we on the real bet stage?

Yes we are.  Doors are open, place your bets!

And here's an extra lucky invite link for you:

https://letsdice.com/?invite_info=104

 I have an account , it would be better if you put coins in my account to start trying the real deal rather than invites :D

 Also more people playing on your site means more profit , so stop with this invite deal , anyone could join in and play if you want more profits.

ld invite link:
https://letsdice.com/?invite_info=22

Just press it and enjoy it. thanks.

Permanent invitation link from seed account, have fun!

https://letsdice.com/?invite_info=50

A promotion story ;D

" man you are a kid"
" im not a kid , i'll gamble"