I’m not a native speaker, so please be patient with my English.
I noticed just-dice.com in the late June this year, and found it innovative compared with satoshidice.com, and was of course entirely not aware of satoshidice.com would buy back all of its shares on the market.
“Wow! It’s cool! I can be the bank (albeit “part of the bank”)!” I thought. And I invested several thousand coins on just-dice.com. The profit came nice… until one day…
I figure out there’s a hole in the game. I told what I thought to the site’s owner, Dooglus. Partly because of my poor English, I wasn’t capable of convincing him. (sorry, I don’t think I should write up what the hole really is here.) I was told that I was in a gambler’s fallacy. And for some days, I thought I was in a gambler’s fallacy too.
Two weeks later, I divested, and tried to prove I was right: what if I could win? I did it. But got addicted. When I was up, like 1000BTC, I thought, wow, now you must believe me! But whether Dooglus believe me or not, I just couldn’t stop, I played, or gambled, and continuously won. I was up like 4400BTC.
(An incident happened, which I have no interest to discuss here. They call me thief here:
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gambler-cheats-satoshidice-competitor-just-dice-out-of-1300-btc/ However, Dooglus knew how that exactly happened. He didn’t disallow my further investment and play.)
Meanwhile, I found “be part of the bank” is not as beautiful as I once thought.
- My investment had been continually diluted.
- I couldn’t enjoy shareholder’s benefit as I once invested on satoshidice.com (and in the August, we were told that satoshidice.com wanted to buy back all the shares in the market).
- In the long-run, people would place smaller and smaller bets. Gone are the days people placed 10k in a single bet. With my investment diluted, profit has to drop.
I sometimes switch from invest and divest. However, I was told I was in a gambler's fallacy again! I do respect Dooglus and his girl friend Deb, but I found I have no way to convince them I was NOT in a gambler's fallacy. At last, I even found it's almost impossible to convince them that I'm not a gambler at all!
I decided to develop my own dice game site, one that supports both on-chain (compatible to SD) and off-chain mode (as fast as JD), and most important of all, the site should go IPO, by which investors could enjoy an appreciation of share price.
I did develop a site, towtoad.com (
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272092), but it turned out the layout was too ugly to stand. I just have no designing talent. When the towtoad.com was in public beta, a guy called Martin (clearly a pseudo name, since his last name is called “Gale”) approached me, and we discussed a lot. I found one of his ideas especially interesting, building a users’ tree, give them incentives to invite other players. “Wow, it’s genius, the site would go popular by itself!” So I decided to give up my own developing (
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=280036), and started working on an IPO plan (
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=288036.0).
I won more than 4k from just-dice.com, so I’d happy to buy IPO shares with these coins, since the cost of these 4K BTC is zero for me. If I can own a lion’s share of the IPO shares (40% of IPO shares), I think it’s enough for me. I’ve made that money out of nothing.
oh, BTW, I won another 300BTC two days ago from JD, and spread part of them to the investors of letsdice.com. (
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=288036.msg3089090#msg3089090)
