Bitcoin Forum

Since the market lull and relative stability around the 14.00, there have been a few topics posted regarding how to spread the word about bitcoin. I understand the client isn't exactly what you would want to hand your middle-aged mother and say 'go buy things', but we're still in the early stages.

But how early?

The closest comparison I can draw is the growth of web servers on the internet, or the web in general. According to the bitcoin maps posted here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Map

Specifically, this one:

https://stats.bitcoin.it/rrd/nodes_total-year.png

The estimated number of 'active' nodes is a little north of 37,500. (See imperi's post below.) Of course, this omits clients which are installed and only started when specific payments have to be made, but for our purposes it is close enough. (Even if we assume a number like 100,000 it won't make that much of a difference as you will see.)

If we take a graph of known websites (which of course assumes 1 site = 1 server, which would've been more accurate in the 90's versus now - but even then, interesting stuff) we can see the growth curve here:

http://www.playlab.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/54t2345.png

Based on where we are now, I'd have to say we are in the apparent 'flatline' of the growth curve. (Roughly in the 95 - 96 timeframe.) This is purely focusing on number of nodes. I don't see this as a bad thing, you have to start somewhere, after all. But the future portends quite interesting numbers.

But, you say "The client looks like a gray piece of crap! Who wants to use it!!??" well, take a look at one of the first web pages:

http://www.computerhistory.org/timeline/images/1993_mosaic_browser_large.jpg

1993 looked pretty 'gray' and 'crappy' too. But it didn't stop the people who believed in the underlying premise. Which reminds me of where we are now. A core of entrepreneurs, techs, crypto-geeks and dreamers.

Hell, the first web server wasn't much to look at either:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3189/3063871416_9cc33238fc_o.jpg

The first bitcoin client running on someone's desktop probably wasn't much easier on the eyes. In short, we do have a long way to go, but I think the journey is worth taking. This summary statement on the web is a good start for 'taking the long view' :


(Taken from here: http://dret.net/lectures/web-spring10/history#%2830%29 )

I'd rewrite this for bitcoin as follows:


Keep your eyes on the horizon, we haven't even begun to climb the dizzying peaks of success.

To clarify the above quote, a node is someone running the Bitcoin client.

TL;DR  BUY BUY BUY.

For the long term that is :)

And I agree.

I understand your enthusiasm, but I'm focusing on the active nodes in the network only. I suppose we would see where demand takes us, but I don't want this post to be relegated to the 'speculation' sub-forum.

Yes, we have some interesting months ahead of us, I agree :)

how would you acct for a btc enthusiast like myself who never opens up his client unless he needs to?  and i do that only b/c i'm afraid of an attack.

Well, I did include a disclaimer:


Even if we include an upper bound of clients that are 'periodic', we're not anywhere near the initial growth curve just yet. I still believe we'll get there due to network effects, though.

There are lots of unknown factors in the estimation of the current Bitcoin users/nodes. For example the data from dump.mybitcoin.it does not contain my 24/7 node at all and another one I know of is always shown as down. Some other forum user reported his node missing as well, so I would take that data only as a very rough baseline.

Most people I introduced to Bitcoin use an online wallet service exclusively or just fire up their instance when they need it etc... Taking all this into account, I would even go so far as to estimate the number of global Bitcoin users somewhere closer to 200k. Of course I might be far off but it does not really matter much, as OP correctly pointed out.

As for the future growth: it is far from certain that we will win the battle for the online currency of choice - hence the analogy to the growth phase of the Internet might quickly break down. There are big corporations and maybe even states which could come up with a compelling alternative (compelling to the masses that is) or simply cripple the growth of the Bitcoin economy by forbidding merchants to legally accept Bitcoin or at least forbid them to accept it when they want to offer paying with credit cards as well.

Nobody knows the future - I am optimistic by nature, but we have still much work ahead!

Here is a chart of total Facebook users over the years. I'm not sure where we are here, but it's certainly not 600m:
http://media.tecca.com/2011/07/06/facebook-user-growth-july-2011-630w.jpg

And another one, this time it's app-store d/ls. Again, where we are in this, is anyones guess:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/af/AppleAppStoreStatistics.png

.

I agree 100%.

We've just reached the 'hello nerds world' level.

'Hello World' is when there is a bitcoin coverstory on a printed big nationwide newspaper.

The internet created a space that supported a certain class of inventions. In the early days, some people would have seen a blank space whilst others would have a seen a space overflowing with potential.

Space is a difficult thing to quantify until its potential has been realized, but in Bitcoin I sense something whose implications we've barely begun to realize.

Here is a graph of the the price of WonderBread. I'm sure it has something to do with the price of bitcoin, I just don't know what.

https://agadvocate.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/bread-price.png

_/   <--- The trend is up!

I would think that the closest comparison would be PayPal.

http://www.heidijosboutique.com/images/paypalchart.jpg

Here is another chart about something. I'm not sure what it's about, but it looks just like the rest, so I figured it might just fit in well:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_bR6jwDPKQGU/Sv2h1OjYRzI/AAAAAAAAAS4/GX67-sf1R64/s400/FSM+Pirate+Chart.jpg

Hmmm... I see what you are saying.

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/sm/custom/1f055c5fe4.jpg *embed image clipped to link*

So you are saying that the similarity of the aesthetic is a valid parallel? This is the kind of post that proves to me how poorly-reasoned you die-hards are. While the Yahoo page was "ugly" it was nevertheless immediately useful and user-friendly. If anything, the picture you post shows how little the main function of the page has changed. There was a bar to input your search query and a buttong to click to search. While the quality of the search results has drastically been refined, the search process hasn't changed one iota.

Here is a chart on Canadian vs American teams in the NHL. Notice how one thrives while the other suffers. That must be just like the struggle between the Bitcoin and the Dollar (CAN or US).

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/7219346/nhl-in-canada.jpg

I have a beta chart here, closed source, so I expect no one to trust it initially, but this is my predictions of what the next set of charts or graphs could possibly look like.

http://www.hbp.usm.my/itsupport/db/surveydb/images/ChartTypes.JPG *embed image clipped to link*

We know the meta beta chart can't be far behind now.

Well, I'm glad at least that those who have very little to contribute to the conversation at least have learned how to embed images in their posts. I'm so proud of you.

For those who get what I was going for, yes, there will be challenges - but I think bitcoin can grow in the same ways the early web grew.

The bitcoin client is 'immediately useful' but could stand refinement. So... you're bashing me with your post that actually affirms what I'm saying?

Wow. Time to take a forum break, my friend.

In what way is it of immediate use to someone walking down the street right now? What can they buy with it, apart from drugs and some random token products sold in makeshift websites? There is NOTHING the Bitcoin provides for which the Dollar in their pocket isn't of more use.

You need think this through, kid. Really.

I did, that is why I compared to where we are now to the 90's. Actually, you could replace what you just said with the web. You couldn't buy things online in any quantity in 1990. The idea of buying major electronics and books was laughable. Every website was 'makeshift' back then.

All I see is someone who doesn't understand how regime changes work, or the potential of technologies in their early stages.

and who also doesn't understand paradigm shifts, basic economics, monetary policy or international politics... BUT, he does know how to post in a forum.

Don't pop his fantasy/reality bubble. He's probably been dreaming about ruling the world with his bitcoins for a long time now.

For instance, I can buy your VPN services from another country, you can´t do that with cash.

I'm sorry shinobi Piper67, I've yet to read your opinion on the subject. I'm sure you have more than one-liners in your arsenal? I mean, if you have any cogent arguments at all...

One at a time, Shinobi, piper67, BillX. Anything beyond pithy one-liners? I know its hard to think and type, but I'm sure you are up to it. Eventually. I await your fact-filled rejoinder eagerly.

I was actually supporting your position, TraderTimm... Shinobi has done nothing but trolling ever since I've been reading this forum... today, I happen to have some free time on my hands. As for my opinion, which has been expressed before, having lived through hyperinflation and truly bad economic and monetary policies once in my life, and having a pretty deep understanding of the concept of assigned value, as long as the code is solid (which is one thing I know NOTHING about), I have little doubt that, in the long run, bitcoin will be a success.

We're all early adopters until you can walk on the street, ask ten people what they think of bitcoin, and get more than three to give you a cogent answer.

How old are you?

Complete nonsense, you can only use the dollar in the USA and in some US-puppet states in the middle-east. Here's one RL example i did recently, i am currently in Poland, but i'm a Norwegian resident (so my bank account is norwegian). I needed to purchase a notebook, here's what happened:

1. I cashed out from mtgox through their french bank >> my norwegian bank account. (which was a 3 step conversion process, mtgox uses USD, but for SEPA it's euro so i already lose on the spread in forex market 2 times, first USD>EURO and then EURO>NOK
2. I cashout in a polish ATM. Again i lose on the spread for this NOK>PLN transaction, plus i pay one fee to my bank for using a foreign bank plus i pay another fee to the bank that owns this atm.
3. Finaly my money can be used to buy the macbook.

Let's compare if this could be more efficent if applestore here accepted bitcoin...

1. I pay directly from my wallet, and pay the minimum transaction fee. No forex spread losses, nor bank transaction fees.

I'm pretty sure the notebook would have been cheaper for me in the latter case.

Old enough to spot B.S. :)

Ah, the nested quotes made it ambiguous. My apologies.

Actually no, im not either of those two. The only thing that attracts me to bitcoin are the followers. Watching the way they think (there are a few exceptions of course) is like watching the Keystone Cops trying to put a derailed train back on track. You know its never going to happen but you just cant take your eyes away to see what new misery awaits them next.

I wish you all well and hope that bitcoin does give you what you want from it.

What immediate use is a stock portfolio to the exact same hiker?  Gold futures?  A timeshare?  There exist several sites which will happily take bit coins and deliver items from newegg and amazon.  Just like Visa will take your dollar deposits and provide a similar service.

Moreover, there is now a mobile android app which allows you to spend (and receive!) coins while walking down that street.   Even a street without an ATM. So your original point is invalid in the first place.

Bitcoin adoption is growing, not shrinking.  Value is being added to the ecosystem at a rapid clip.  It won't be long (real world time, not bitcoin time) until $14/share seems like a pretty good value to the average Joe.

All that's needed is a bigger community.  A year ago it was < 3k.  30k people is a slow but steady start.   Six months from now and 300k you'll see more businesses accepting bitcoin and real FX trading it -- early mainstream bitcoin adopters are likely to be affluent, have disposable income and like shiny gadgets.  In otherwords, an ideal market for many businesses.   A quarter from then and 3 million users will have mainstream get on board.  At that point 300 million and FDIC insured banking is only months away, and 3 billion weeks away from that.  

30 billion might take a while though.

This is all within the realm of possibility *IF* (and that's the only IF) we continue with the current trends.  There are plenty of factors which could kill these trends, but none of them have materialized.

No worries...

Hey Piper67,

I'm flattered at commanding your attention! Isn't it a bit embarrasing for you to see that the company you keep is too stupid to even realize that you were taking a (weak) poke at me?

Fair enough, BillX. I certainly like the elaboration versus what you posted earlier.

We will see what the experiment yields, I suppose. I'm optimistic for the future.

Mr. Timm, he was talking about you, idiot.

Hey Shinobi, there's a difference between being mildly amusing and commanding my attention... I doubt you could command a jet of pee into the toilet bowl. As for my poke being weak, I get that it would be to someone who doesn't know anything about paradigm shifts, basic economics, monetary policy or international politics.

You truly are the tail thinking it's wagging the dog, kid.

I've heard it said that people tend to fall into normally distributed curves, with the early adopters being in the lower 15.8% (1 standard deviation below median or more), the majority who wait for the tech to be proven within the +/- 1 standard deviation "majority" portion of the curve and the upper 15.8% being the die-hards who are just now getting on the internet (+2 standard deviations would be the 2% or so who still use rotary phones).

So in short, the real tipping point is when you can interview 100 people on the internet (people on the street aren't guaranteed to be part of the 2.1 billion internet users out of 6.8 billion overall people) and 16 of them (or more) will say they use bitcoin.

I see you forgot I admitted my mistake, something that I don't suspect we'll ever see from you. But take care to gloat and laugh, because we know only good things come from that behavior.

Or you could be posting coherently about the topic at hand like a reasonable being.

...
Warning - while you were reading 7 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

fast post.

just my 2 bitcents. 

the mainstream joe might not ever use bitcoins, but the mainstream joe has never bought or sold anything using gold either.

My point is that bitcoin might end up as just a 'store of value' like gold is, but with the advantage over gold of

1.  you can never get any more bitcoins then the 21Million avail by 2021 ( you can always digup more gold)
2.  you can transfer the value across a network  (try doing that with gold unless selling futures.)

I am? I guess only time will tell. I do, however, want to know why you keep repeating "paradigm shifts, basic economics, monetary policy or international politics" as if you are cutting and pasting it?  I do something about all these topics in varying strength, and enough to have a good sense of where Bitcoin is headed.

For emphasis, Shinobi, something you'll learn about in high school.

Really? I didn't read Kuhn till college. Maybe I was a late bloomer.  :P

The chart on number of nodes are very indicative.. However, you should take into account of another trend: web-based wallet.

I rarely open my wallets now. Most of my coins are in Mt.Gox/Tradehill. If I need to send coins, I send it from there.

Why?
Because every time I open my wallet.....  I have to wait 0.5-1 hour for the blocks to catch up!!!   >:(

Until we can get a thin client, this can be somewhat preventive to adoptions (I remember when I install the client on a new PC I have to wait 4 hours before I can send/receive any coins. Imagine how a new user would feel.), and it'll push the trends toward web-based wallets more.

Good point. You are right that there will be refinements to how people manage their wallets and coins. The numbers in my article don't take that into account. All we can do is make educated guesses, until other methods of measuring exist.

I only send coins from my Linux server, and the wallets are always open.

that my friend is called INFLATION. LOL

 ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL   ;D ;D ;D MEGA LAWL 

A true BitCoin chart will look like a complete circle.

 :-*

You're right, the proportion of emoticons to useful content does indicate underlying intelligence. Good call!

One of the barometers that I'm using is to try and sell goods here on the forum.  Afterall, everyone here understands Bitcoin so if I can't sell here, then the rest of the world surely isn't ready yet.  So far my result has been less than impressive.  No minimum bid, 80+ views, no offers.  I know my goods have value because I have a locked in price from Amazon as to what they would be willing to give me for my item.

Obviously one item isn't enough to make any sort of conclusion, but I think as I put more items up for bid, it will give me a better sense of if this Bitcoin truly is just for speculators or a viable medium of exchange.

The stories of so and so bought a car or house with Bitcoin is irrelevant to me.  A guy bartered a red paper clip into a house.  Doesn't mean I should go out and buy red paper clips.  Anyway, that's one of the current metrics I'm using for my personal bullish/bearish long-term outlook on BTC.

Oh and this didn't get moved to speculation?  ::)

IMHO the forum is an awful place for buying and selling goods - I spend Bitcoins nearly every day but I have not looked here in the respective forum-sections for a long time. It is just not the right interface for finding stuff. Also the audience at amazon.com is orders of magnitudes larger than in our forums here - add one additional order of magnitude for everybody who, like me, simply doesn't bother to wade through tons of forum posts in order to find something they want to buy. So you would really have to offer a _lot_ here to be able to compare it to Amazon. Anyway - you could probably deduce something useful from the total number of successful trades here on the forum. Anybody has statistics about that?

The Bitcoin economy is still young - good trading sites are rare and we don't have anything close to Amazon.com in terms of usability. Give it some time - it will develop. People are spending their coins, even though many just don't really know how to deal with this new things just yet. Eventually it will be just money to them and they will spend it accordingly.

Don't worry - everything's gonna be alright ;)

Oh and I agree: this thread has probably turned into a worthy candidate for the Speculation section. Apologies to the OP for this obviously unintended development.

Come back to make comments on this analysis of yours in a year. Then you can say you've really tried and took the time to see what this market will become.

LOL,

How the fuck was this thread left on the main page but my MIRROR thread with the reverse opinion is shoved into the speculation sub-forum?

LOL,

Man, this site's heavy handed bias becomes so so sweetly evident.

Suppress dissent. Drive the market.

RALLY! RALLY! RALLY!

Probably because nobody reported this thread as needing to be moved. :P

Heh, good point. Reported.

I think you may have misunderstood me, I wasn't trying to make comparisons to Amazon.  The only reason I brought up Amazon is to state that I know the product I'm selling has value.  Maybe I should have omitted Amazon and just stated that I have a contract in place with a vendor that will pay me X amount, guaranteed, for my product.  It was simply used to show that I'm not selling junk.

You may be right in that these forums may not be the best avenue for sale but I don't have enough for sale to start my own website nor do I see any well established Bitcoin auction sites I'm fond of at the moment.  As I said, this is just one of my personal barometers and I won't draw conclusions too hastily.  

Oh sure, now I get three reports on this thread. Ha.

True.

I'm quite happy to spend Bitcoins on the forum or with various merchants; however I'm only buying things I want and need! If you offer something I have no interest in buying, then I'm not going to buy it, regardless of the payment method. I suspect most people act similarly.

Exactly.  If people are offered something they have no interest in buying, then they aren't going to buy it, regardless if it's the greatest payment method known to humankind.

Enter Bitcoins.

You make some good points but how do you build credibility based on a currency that uses anonymity as one of its advantages?  I could construct a website but I'm not in the market to be a larger seller.  

I guess what I'm asking is, if the most bullish of Bitcoin users (presumably those here on the forum) are unwilling to use Bitcoin due to its anonymity, how can we expect the mainstream public to embrace it?  Other than face to face transactions, I see this as a potential problem.

I do recognize that it is a very small community and it could very well be that no one is particularly interested in what I'm trying to sell.  Although if that's the case why would you click the link when the product for sale is very clearly stated in the title?  Curiosity I suppose but surely a fraction of those 80 views must have been some interest?  

Check out bitcoinworldmarket.com - they act as a proxy and therefore eliminate the problem of initial trust. They take care of the customer contact, offer a nice shopping interface and handle returns. They have direct deals with multiple merchants, so if you have a good product you can contact them and they might include it in their shop.

If I didn't know anything about you, I would probably not buy anything from you - regardless of the payment method. There's escrow for such cases but since Gavin gave up on clearcoin I think the alternatives still have to build up some credibility by themselves.
The anonymity of the payment method is not the problem here - the anonymity of the merchant is. Bitcoin relieves us from having to trust in any payment processor but it just shifts the trust concern towards the merchants (due to the non-reversibility of transactions).

Luckily the merchant does not have to be anonymous with Bitcoin. If he choses to be, there are rating systems like the OTC-web of trust to address exactly this problem. I don't see the masses buying from anonymous merchants anytime soon though.

Ha, a lot has transpired since I last looked at the board. The difference is, I'm not going to have a hissy fit like Synaptic :) Think we still had a some good posts compared to the disaster his thread spawned. Keep it up, guys!

HISS HISS.

Just for the uninformed, a hissy fit looks like the above :)

Fortunately, we have a control experiment for this, when Suggester made many of the same arguments being made today on Feb 18, 2010: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=57.msg390#msg390.  I think his logic was reasonably sound, if not perfect, and many of the things he said have since come through (e.g., speculation and bubble/bust being the main thing driving interest and transactions for Bitcoin).

On a similar note to what CurbsideProphet is doing, I kindly asked the guy that actually runs bitcoinworldmarket.com if he could do a service to the community and tell us on a daily basis what his actual sales volume is (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=28276.msg357205#msg357205).  His original post expressed his concern about loans not being viable for Bitcoin (or any long-term deflationary scenario) and how this would choke business growth (for the record, my posts make it clear which side of that debate I take).  He hasn't taken me up on this, but I wish some other serious merchants would (e.g. spendbitcoins.com).  We can argue all day long about "YES YES YES Bitcoin will take over the world" or "NO NO NO it will crash and burn", but there's nothing like actual data to settle these questions.

The 'bubble' aspect will be proven or disproven by the end of August, ( ref: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26117.0 ). As far as the success of a statistically insignificant sample of one, I think all we're learning here is variance. The main point being is bitcoin has quite a bit to go before there are large network-effect increases.

I think this is the basis for many who defend bitcoin, myself included, because we know the potential exists - using an argument that it has already failed due to its relative immaturity is ludicrous. It would be like criticizing an infant for not knowing how to drive a car.

We'll get there, but expectations must be governed by the time needed to do so.

Excellent observation, Synoptic. Now for extra credit...

! interested(x) --> ! Buying(x)
Buying(x) --> Interested(x)
x = bitcoin
! Buying( bitcoin ) --> ?

! Buying( bitcoin ) --> Silly_shortsited(x)?

Oldie but a goodie :)

Ooh!  I know this one!

! Buying( bitcoin ) --> ( Interested( bitcoin) | ! Interested( bitcoin ) )

And if I could only remember where I last saw my discrete math textbook, I could prove it!

BINGO! That people are not buying bitcoin tells us nothing about its perceived value (interest).