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Title: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Walsoraj on October 18, 2013, 07:13:52 PM I'm starting to see reports in the Service section and on Reddit of delays in withdrawing btc from Gox. It has taken several days in some cases. So far, looks like everyone eventually received their coins.
However, some of Gox's explanations are complete bullshit. For example, when they blame "net congestion." lol. That excuse, along with tapping a cold wallet, will only last so long. Let's suppose Gox has been selling their btc to meet demand for fiat withdrawals and they are now running low. What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat? Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: qwk on October 18, 2013, 07:17:09 PM What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat? Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Walsoraj on October 18, 2013, 07:21:18 PM What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat? Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.Who would be foolish enough to send coins to Gox in the above scenario? Fiat is still stuck there and now it would be clearer than ever that Gox is in fact bankrupt. I think we would see price stagnation and close to zero volume. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Miz4r on October 18, 2013, 07:30:31 PM What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat? Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.Who would be foolish enough to send coins to Gox in the above scenario? Fiat is still stuck there and now it would be clearer than ever that Gox is in fact bankrupt. I think we would see price stagnation and close to zero volume. Gox will just follow China or Bitstamp, they have no choice. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: TERA on October 18, 2013, 07:31:39 PM Then there is no real bitcoin and no real USD left on gox and it is all an imaginary game played by bots and hopeless traders. Eventually volume dwindles to zero as people realize they are working for nothing and just spending fees. The market realizes gox is no longer relevant and bases all services and speculations on other exchanges (this has for the most part already occurred). After a possible brief panic sale at some point, bitcoin continues its rally due to its exponential growth, China, etc. Litecoin reaches sub $1.
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: wopwop on October 18, 2013, 07:34:09 PM planet earth will explode but bitcoin mining rigs will be recoded to mine a new planet
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 18, 2013, 07:52:00 PM Then there is no real bitcoin and no real USD left on gox and it is all an imaginary game played by bots and hopeless traders. Eventually volume dwindles to zero as people realize they are working for nothing and just spending fees. The market realizes gox is no longer relevant and bases all services and speculations on other exchanges (this has for the most part already occurred). After a possible brief panic sale at some point, bitcoin continues its rally due to its exponential growth, China, etc. Litecoin reaches sub $1. This. Gox isn't leading anything these past few days. They sit and wait to see what happens elsewhere, then match the action. Gox is dead. Oh well.. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: jubalix on October 18, 2013, 07:56:23 PM fractional reserve gox
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: mccorvic on October 18, 2013, 07:57:10 PM What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat? Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.Who would be foolish enough to send coins to Gox in the above scenario? Fiat is still stuck there and now it would be clearer than ever that Gox is in fact bankrupt. I think we would see price stagnation and close to zero volume. I don't know why anyone has used Gox for any reason for the past year, but they still do. Price stangation and zero volume on Gox maybe, but every where else will certainly see some excitement. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Walsoraj on October 18, 2013, 07:58:30 PM Then there is no real bitcoin and no real USD left on gox and it is all an imaginary game played by bots and hopeless traders. Eventually volume dwindles to zero as people realize they are working for nothing and just spending fees. The market realizes gox is no longer relevant and bases all services and speculations on other exchanges (this has for the most part already occurred). After a possible brief panic sale at some point, bitcoin continues its rally due to its exponential growth, China, etc. Litecoin reaches sub $1. This. Gox isn't leading anything these past few days. They sit and wait to see what happens elsewhere, then match the action. Gox is dead. Oh well.. It is not "oh well" if Gox dies will the vast majority of fiat. There is over 12 mil on the books and lordy knows how much off. New fiat will not rush to other exchanges after a Gox collapse. If anything, this would scare away prospective investors waiting on the sidelines. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: AceWallen on October 18, 2013, 08:14:35 PM What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat? Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.Who would be foolish enough to send coins to Gox in the above scenario? Fiat is still stuck there and now it would be clearer than ever that Gox is in fact bankrupt. I think we would see price stagnation and close to zero volume. Gox will just follow China or Bitstamp, they have no choice. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: rampantparanoia on October 18, 2013, 08:19:25 PM if gox runs out of coins, I will LOL and send them an e-mail letting them know they should've never quit the trading card business.
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: windjc on October 18, 2013, 08:21:12 PM Here's the deal.
Either Gox is solvent or its not. If its solvent, then all of this will eventually unwind itself, withdraws with increase and arbitrage will bring it back in line. Or withdraws will remain the same and volume will continue to go down until its just a japanese market (assuming withdraws in Japan are/have been consistently normal). If its not solvent, when this comes to light, Gox will tank dragging other exchanges down with it temporarily. This event will probably be another "Silk Road" crash event - worse if it happens soon, or similar if it happens down the road with other exchanges growing in size and depth. Then the dust will settle and bitcoin will grow stronger with the Gox albatross freed from its neck. Either way, I think people are insane to not cash into bitcoins on Gox and get the hell out. Because only the people with funds on Gox are really at risk in either of these scenarios, imo. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: TERA on October 18, 2013, 09:13:54 PM Why would news of gox insolvency cause gox to lead a crash? Selling will not help the user as they cannot withdraw. It seems to be the reverse where panic is driving the gox price upwards. Even if btc cannot be withdrawn also, the user would probably want to hold btc vs USD since btc is in a bull market, and its much more likely they'll someday get the ability to withdraw BTC vs USD.
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: windjc on October 18, 2013, 10:18:57 PM Why would news of gox insolvency cause gox to lead a crash? Selling will not help the user as they cannot withdraw. It seems to be the reverse where panic is driving the gox price upwards. Even if btc cannot be withdrawn also, the user would probably want to hold btc vs USD since btc is in a bull market, and its much more likely they'll someday get the ability to withdraw BTC vs USD. Because thousands of people losing their money through insolvency would create a short term negative view of bitcoin. Just like the end of silk road did. You are thinking about it too much. Its pretty simple that short term it would create a crisis of confidence and negative publicity. Mtgox wouldnt crash. It would close. The other markets would crash. Temporarily. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: BitChick on October 18, 2013, 10:23:02 PM I would think that as the price rises there will be a constant stream of coin coming and going. Everyone has a sell price. I am sure that the hoarders will release more and more as the price increases for sure.
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: TERA on October 18, 2013, 10:27:29 PM Why would news of gox insolvency cause gox to lead a crash? Selling will not help the user as they cannot withdraw. It seems to be the reverse where panic is driving the gox price upwards. Even if btc cannot be withdrawn also, the user would probably want to hold btc vs USD since btc is in a bull market, and its much more likely they'll someday get the ability to withdraw BTC vs USD. Because thousands of people losing their money through insolvency would create a short term negative view of bitcoin. Just like the end of silk road did. You are thinking about it too much. Its pretty simple that short term it would create a crisis of confidence and negative publicity. Mtgox wouldnt crash. It would close. The other markets would crash. Temporarily. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Xer0 on October 18, 2013, 10:32:50 PM Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Elwar on October 18, 2013, 10:34:19 PM Why would Gox run out of bitcoins?
Currently the best way to make money off of them is to buy a bunch of bitcoins on the cheaper exchanges, send those bitcoins to MtGox and sell them at a higher price. It is cash that they will run out of sooner. I doubt they are trading bitcoins on other exchanges. And why would anyone withdraw bitcoins from MtGox? Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: bigasic on October 18, 2013, 10:39:37 PM Why would Gox run out of bitcoins? Currently the best way to make money off of them is to buy a bunch of bitcoins on the cheaper exchanges, send those bitcoins to MtGox and sell them at a higher price. It is cash that they will run out of sooner. I doubt they are trading bitcoins on other exchanges. And why would anyone withdraw bitcoins from MtGox? Who is getting their fiat out of mt.gox? there is a reason why they are 20 bucks more a coin than anywhere else, people are forced to buy coin and move them, like I did.. Im just glad I did it when the price was about 30 dollars cheaper.. I was lucky, I have no more coins on mt.gox.. If i were you, I would pull all coins off mt.gox, if they aren't bankrupt, they will be soon. I havent heard of on person saying that they have been able to pull their fiat out. One guy I know has been waiting for over 2 months for just one coins worth. I have heard that they are getting to them, but they are just slow. I have a feeling its much worse over there.. Get your coins off mt.gox asap... Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 18, 2013, 10:41:57 PM I'm starting to see reports in the Service section and on Reddit of delays in withdrawing btc from Gox. It has taken several days in some cases. So far, looks like everyone eventually received their coins. However, some of Gox's explanations are complete bullshit. For example, when they blame "net congestion." lol. That excuse, along with tapping a cold wallet, will only last so long. Let's suppose Gox has been selling their btc to meet demand for fiat withdrawals and they are now running low. What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat? If, gox "runs out of coins to sell", the BTC price goes way up. If it becomes just as difficult to withdraw BTC as fiat, the BTC price goes down. They are completely different scenarios. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Elwar on October 18, 2013, 10:42:27 PM Why would Gox run out of bitcoins? Currently the best way to make money off of them is to buy a bunch of bitcoins on the cheaper exchanges, send those bitcoins to MtGox and sell them at a higher price. It is cash that they will run out of sooner. I doubt they are trading bitcoins on other exchanges. And why would anyone withdraw bitcoins from MtGox? Who is getting their fiat out of mt.gox? there is a reason why they are 20 bucks more a coin than anywhere else, people are forced to buy coin and move them, like I did.. Im just glad I did it when the price was about 30 dollars cheaper.. I was lucky, I have no more coins on mt.gox.. If i were you, I would pull all coins off mt.gox, if they aren't bankrupt, they will be soon. I havent heard of on person saying that they have been able to pull their fiat out. One guy I know has been waiting for over 2 months for just one coins worth. I have heard that they are getting to them, but they are just slow. I have a feeling its much worse over there.. Get your coins off mt.gox asap... Ahh, makes sense. I took everything out when Dwolla jacked them. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: wobber on October 18, 2013, 10:45:52 PM 2 months to withdraw cash from Gox? Proof or it didn't happened!
GOX says they have backlog but only 2-3 weeks. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Nagle on October 19, 2013, 03:19:54 AM http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png
Mt. Gox order book, USD/BTC. All those dollars, trying to get out. Is that why the price of Bitcoin suddenly took a big jump today? Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 03:24:08 AM http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png Mt. Gox order book, USD/BTC. All those dollars, trying to get out. Is that why the price of Bitcoin suddenly took a big jump today? Actually, yea it is. :-\ They are getting out by buying BTC. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: wobber on October 19, 2013, 03:26:38 AM Might be, rally is only on Gox.
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: StarenseN on October 19, 2013, 03:28:18 AM 1K is 100,000,000,000 satoshies
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: MAbtc on October 19, 2013, 03:28:35 AM Might be, rally is only on Gox. What? Bitstamp is up $10 over the last 18 hours. And looking at bitcoinity (not sure how accurate), they started the movement this morning -- Gox and Chinese markets lagged by quite a bit. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: hulk on October 19, 2013, 03:29:50 AM Then they will have both USD problem and BTC problem :)
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: ArticMine on October 19, 2013, 03:30:29 AM Bitstamp and the Chinese exchanges are keeping up with MTGox http://btckan.com/price. Also BTC will flow into MTGox at a price. Let us not forget that EUR and JPY can and do leave MTGox.
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 03:32:17 AM Bitstamp and the Chinese exchanges are keeping up with MTGox http://btckan.com/price. Also BTC will flow into MTGox at a price. Let us not forget that EUR and JPY can and do leave MTGox. No they're not, Bitstamp has been hovering around $150 now for a while. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: ArticMine on October 19, 2013, 03:34:02 AM Bitstamp and the Chinese exchanges are keeping up with MTGox http://btckan.com/price. Also BTC will flow into MTGox at a price. Let us not forget that EUR and JPY can and do leave MTGox. No they're not, Bitstamp has been hovering around $150 now for a while. Bitstamp 153.8 to MTGox 170. That is under 10% as per my link above. 796.com is over 1000 CNY Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 19, 2013, 03:34:52 AM http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png Mt. Gox order book, USD/BTC. All those dollars, trying to get out. Is that why the price of Bitcoin suddenly took a big jump today? Actually, yea it is. :-\ They are getting out by buying BTC. We heard this last week. ::) And a month ago.. ::) And three months ago.. ::) Buying pressure has been driven by Stamp, by the way. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: wobber on October 19, 2013, 03:34:58 AM People deserve this for not keeping their coins in the wallet. Why the fuck would YOU want to keep coins in SOMEBODY's ELSE wallet?
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: MAbtc on October 19, 2013, 03:37:25 AM Bitstamp and the Chinese exchanges are keeping up with MTGox http://btckan.com/price. Also BTC will flow into MTGox at a price. Let us not forget that EUR and JPY can and do leave MTGox. No they're not, Bitstamp has been hovering around $150 now for a while. https://i.imgur.com/ZtUMev7l.png https://i.imgur.com/N8Oi0P3l.png https://i.imgur.com/YoYfxqPl.png I's say they are keeping up. And correct me if I'm wrong, but Bitstamp led the run-up this morning, 3:00. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 03:37:39 AM http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png Mt. Gox order book, USD/BTC. All those dollars, trying to get out. Is that why the price of Bitcoin suddenly took a big jump today? Actually, yea it is. :-\ They are getting out by buying BTC. We heard this last week. ::) And a month ago.. ::) And three months ago.. ::) Buying pressure has been driven by Stamp, by the way. Look I'm not saying that BTC hasn't been bought up for 'real' reasons. I'm just saying that saying "BTC price goes up thus no fiat wants out of Gox" is a backward statement. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: oakpacific on October 19, 2013, 04:04:30 AM I assure everyone I will "redistribute" some bitcoins once the price is considered high enough, FYI I can withdraw to a Japanese bank account, which has never been a problem ;), now can we please end this FUD thread?
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Walsoraj on October 19, 2013, 04:15:26 AM yes anyone else having this problem? i am a verified user (mailed them my passport etc..) and never had this problem until today. Not able to get my btc out for over 8 hours now and still waiting, very frustrating as i need it to do a transaction. i got a bullshit cookie cutter response from mtgox, btc withdraw still not processed. wtf, i am going to get all my btc out of mtgox, this is crap. Quote Hello, Thank you for contacting us. Please be aware that: When withdrawing or depositing bitcoins into your Mt.Gox account there may occasionally be a delay (1~24 hours) depending on network congestion, your internet connection speed and the time required to get 6 confirmations on the network. If you're sending to your computer's wallet, it's good practice to keep your bitcoin client running so it can download the block chain. For those that may not know the block chain is the complete history of all transactions made on the bitcoin network, and as such it can take some time to update and download the most current block and see the bitcoins in your wallet. If you aren't seeing the funds after either withdrawing/sending to Mt. Gox from your bitcoin program, please wait 24 hours before contacting us. If your transfer has still not occurred within 48 hours, please lodge a support request so we may begin the process of tracking your bitcoins and reinitiating the transfer. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you have any further enquiries, please do not hesitate to contact Mt.Gox Support by responding to this email (should the enquiry relate to this ticket). Best regards, Mt.Gox Team https://www.mtgox.com This is such bullshit i still dont have my bitcoins and no response from mtgox after 2+ days now. I can understand bank wire taking time due to external factors with international wire transfers and regulations. But there is NO EXCUSE why bitcoin transfers is taking anything more than 30 mins. fuck mtgox. ^ Gox's excuse is HILARIOUS. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: zeroday on October 19, 2013, 03:19:10 PM Last time I waited for over a day for transaction to appear on the network. Gox's support replied me with different idiotic advises such as I need keep bitcoin client running in order to have transaction finished.
It seems that Gox generates transaction but then waits long time before releasing it to the network. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Lohoris on October 19, 2013, 04:27:38 PM Bitstamp and the Chinese exchanges are keeping up with MTGox http://btckan.com/price. Also BTC will flow into MTGox at a price. Let us not forget that EUR and JPY can and do leave MTGox. SEPA transfers are supposed to be completed within 1 business day.Since they take several weeks from Mt. Gox, saying that "EUR can leave Mt.Gox" is inexact at the very least. Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: Jabbatheslutt on October 20, 2013, 09:54:06 AM Gox is dieing. Good riddance lol.
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: TERA on October 20, 2013, 10:04:21 AM I think after yesterday's action we can finally relinquish our fears that the order books are going to run out of btc. Now withdrawal is another issue...
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: MAbtc on October 20, 2013, 11:08:45 PM Gox will sell coins it does not have just like it is doing with fiat. This is one of my fears.... allowing Gox to stretch this whole situation out all that much longer. It's a shame that so many people around here still appear to trade on their platform. :-\Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: hermann1983 on October 20, 2013, 11:20:03 PM I dont know if it is even possible for MtGox to be out of Bitcoins for BTC withdrawals! After all, all bitcoins listed were once deposited at MtGox and no Bitcoin seizure happened.
Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: btcbug on October 21, 2013, 02:05:50 AM 2 months to withdraw cash from Gox? Proof or it didn't happened! GOX says they have backlog but only 2-3 weeks. I have been waiting at least 6 weeks now as well! Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: prophetx on October 21, 2013, 03:46:23 AM I dont know if it is even possible for MtGox to be out of Bitcoins for BTC withdrawals! After all, all bitcoins listed were once deposited at MtGox and no Bitcoin seizure happened. who knows maybe they accidently lost a wallet file... just the other day i figured out the passphrase to an encrypted wallet i couldnt access for 3 months! Title: Re: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins? Post by: prophetx on October 21, 2013, 03:50:36 AM this is the far more likely scenario
some of those gox dollars right now are imaginary dollars since the US govt and i think according to the lawsuit CoinLab is holding millions of people's deposits... so... something like 5 or 10 million... someone remind me the # please. let's say the price goes to $500/btc on gox... you and 99 other bagholders sell $100000 of btc for an imaginary $100000 each... $10m that is not in gox accounts, that is a fact now how exactly do you plan on getting your money from Homeland Security and CoinLab? Mtgox could file for bankruptcy protection in Japan, who even knows what that would mean... it could take years of legal wrangling before you see a dime! Meanwhile btc will go up. Don't get me wrong I like using gox and have used it in the past but numbers don't lie... |
