Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Spekulatius on October 29, 2013, 04:30:33 PM



Title: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Spekulatius on October 29, 2013, 04:30:33 PM
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1pgny0/bitpay_processes_1_million_transaction_for/

Its for BFL btw. How and when will they convert the coins to USD?

Anybody knows?


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: notme on October 29, 2013, 04:32:38 PM
Seeing as how the transaction was settled before the 3 day old press release, I wouldn't count on a dump.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Kupsi on October 29, 2013, 04:33:50 PM
It's only 5k coins...

(They can sell them to the Bitcoin Trust.)


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Tzupy on October 29, 2013, 05:17:43 PM
Or they could sell them within the next hour, who knows for sure?


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 29, 2013, 05:22:24 PM
it is a huge amount of coins


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: mccorvic on October 29, 2013, 05:22:43 PM
On Gox a million USD dump would still only go down just under $200.   This would be a normal dump and most likely recovered in an hour or so.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Ivanhoe on October 29, 2013, 05:26:52 PM
I think butterfly labs is responsible enough to not dump this all at the same time. Would be very stupid if they did. Butterfly labs benefits from a high Bitcoin price aswell. Think logic people.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: tutkarz on October 29, 2013, 05:29:06 PM
like everybody who owns big amounts of bitcoins have to dump them right away on the market instead of just list them on the ask side if they have to sell it.
Not everybody needs fiat money in this very second.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: casascius on October 29, 2013, 05:32:24 PM
I would bet they want the bitcoin and already have private buyers lined up eager to get legit coins from a reputable vendor in bulk.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 29, 2013, 05:34:42 PM
lol if this the first time somebody actually took some money out related to ASICs.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: MAbtc on October 29, 2013, 05:34:49 PM
On Gox a million USD dump would still only go down just under $200.   This would be a normal dump and most likely recovered in an hour or so.
5k would have been a normal dump 6 months ago. 5k is a massive dump now and no way would the price recover in one hour, especially if done on one exchange. Panic would probably kick in.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 29, 2013, 05:37:49 PM
Seeing as how the transaction was settled before the 3 day old press release, I wouldn't count on a dump.

Actually, might this explain the LAST dip (down to $157 on stamp)?


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 29, 2013, 05:38:08 PM
On Gox a million USD dump would still only go down just under $200.   This would be a normal dump and most likely recovered in an hour or so.
5k would have been a normal dump 6 months ago. 5k is a massive dump now and no way would the price recover in one hour, especially if done on one exchange. Panic would probably kick in.



there will be no panic. How much money is invested to BTC we can only dream about it


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: vendetahome on October 29, 2013, 05:41:11 PM
I thought Bitpay insta sells the coins on exchage, how would they know the amount of BTC needed for your order otherwise


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: MAbtc on October 29, 2013, 05:41:24 PM
On Gox a million USD dump would still only go down just under $200.   This would be a normal dump and most likely recovered in an hour or so.
5k would have been a normal dump 6 months ago. 5k is a massive dump now and no way would the price recover in one hour, especially if done on one exchange. Panic would probably kick in.

there will be no panic. How much money is invested to BTC we can only dream about it

Oh? What was that that happened October 23rd (6 days ago)? An instant 25% drop in price (Gox), but no panic? Hmmm.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 29, 2013, 05:45:20 PM
On Gox a million USD dump would still only go down just under $200.   This would be a normal dump and most likely recovered in an hour or so.
5k would have been a normal dump 6 months ago. 5k is a massive dump now and no way would the price recover in one hour, especially if done on one exchange. Panic would probably kick in.

there will be no panic. How much money is invested to BTC we can only dream about it

Oh? What was that that happened October 23rd (6 days ago)? An instant 25% drop in price (Gox), but no panic? Hmmm.


6 days ago i saw that ,  and than ppl start buying BTC. There will be small dump in price but we will see


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: MAbtc on October 29, 2013, 05:50:28 PM
On Gox a million USD dump would still only go down just under $200.   This would be a normal dump and most likely recovered in an hour or so.
5k would have been a normal dump 6 months ago. 5k is a massive dump now and no way would the price recover in one hour, especially if done on one exchange. Panic would probably kick in.

there will be no panic. How much money is invested to BTC we can only dream about it

Oh? What was that that happened October 23rd (6 days ago)? An instant 25% drop in price (Gox), but no panic? Hmmm.


6 days ago i saw that ,  and than ppl start buying BTC. There will be small dump in price but we will see

Point is, the question is whether or not we will see massive dumps. If we do, there is no doubt we'll see panic selling.

How big were the dumps that marked the reversal at $233 Gox? I don't remember...


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ex-trader on October 29, 2013, 05:51:46 PM
I'd bet it never really touched BTC at all.

Chances are a new investor wanted to get into mining and had $1m. They wanted to order from BFL but have to pay in BTC. So Bitpay 'sell' the BTC to the customer, pass it to BFL who sell it back into USD via Bitpay (can't pay the real bills with BTC).

Net result, no external trades, no risk and lots of great PR all-round.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 29, 2013, 05:54:27 PM
like everybody who owns big amounts of bitcoins have to dump them right away on the market instead of just list them on the ask side if they have to sell it.
Not everybody needs fiat money in this very second.

lol
 
But everyone likes to shit their pants to much in econ/speculation.  "May happen in next hour!!  zomg!"


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 29, 2013, 05:55:39 PM
I'd bet it never really touched BTC at all.

Chances are a new investor wanted to get into mining and had $1m. They wanted to order from BFL but have to pay in BTC. So Bitpay 'sell' the BTC to the customer, pass it to BFL who sell it back into USD via Bitpay (can't pay the real bills with BTC).

Net result, no external trades, no risk and lots of great PR all-round.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I'd put this at 60% likelihood..


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: johnyj on October 29, 2013, 05:56:24 PM
Bitstamp just had a 5k buy and price rose by $2

Count by the number of monarch, that is about 128T hash power, about 3% of today's network hash power, but might drop dramatically when it delivered


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: iCEBREAKER on October 29, 2013, 06:02:58 PM
Seeing as how the transaction was settled before the 3 day old press release, I wouldn't count on a dump.

China will devour those coins before tea time, then be ready for more.   8)


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: uhoh on October 29, 2013, 06:56:16 PM
Bitstamp just had a 5k buy and price rose by $2

Count by the number of monarch, that is about 128T hash power, about 3% of today's network hash power, but might drop dramatically when it if delivered

Joking aside, this is one order that BFL will deliver, at the expense of people earlier in the queue no doubt


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ErisDiscordia on October 29, 2013, 07:06:46 PM
I'd bet it never really touched BTC at all.

Chances are a new investor wanted to get into mining and had $1m. They wanted to order from BFL but have to pay in BTC. So Bitpay 'sell' the BTC to the customer, pass it to BFL who sell it back into USD via Bitpay (can't pay the real bills with BTC).

Net result, no external trades, no risk and lots of great PR all-round.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I'd put this at 60% likelihood..

I am a conspiracy theorist and I proclaim this scheme to be a rational idea which might very well have been implemented by the involved parties.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 29, 2013, 07:08:00 PM
I'd bet it never really touched BTC at all.

Chances are a new investor wanted to get into mining and had $1m. They wanted to order from BFL but have to pay in BTC. So Bitpay 'sell' the BTC to the customer, pass it to BFL who sell it back into USD via Bitpay (can't pay the real bills with BTC).

Net result, no external trades, no risk and lots of great PR all-round.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I'd put this at 60% likelihood..

I am a conspiracy theorist and I proclaim this scheme to be a rational idea which might very well have been implemented by the involved parties.

agree with you but maybe there will be some changes


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: adamstgBit on October 29, 2013, 07:13:03 PM
I think it gr8 that bitpay did 1million in 1 order

i'd like to see  more high volume trading going on, poeple buying house, cars, boats, collectables,  thing of that nature, and price will be affected, in a very positive way


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: somestranger on October 29, 2013, 07:16:25 PM
I'd bet it never really touched BTC at all.

Chances are a new investor wanted to get into mining and had $1m. They wanted to order from BFL but have to pay in BTC. So Bitpay 'sell' the BTC to the customer, pass it to BFL who sell it back into USD via Bitpay (can't pay the real bills with BTC).

Net result, no external trades, no risk and lots of great PR all-round.
I don't think someone with $1 million to invest would be stupid enough to buy from a long con company like BFL. I think it's more along these lines:

Sounds like bfl just laundered all the coins they mined on everyone's equipment. <takes off tin foil hat>


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 29, 2013, 10:21:27 PM
I thought Bitpay insta sells the coins on exchage, how would they know the amount of BTC needed for your order otherwise

They take the risk and take loans.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 29, 2013, 10:26:47 PM
I'd bet it never really touched BTC at all.

Chances are a new investor wanted to get into mining and had $1m. They wanted to order from BFL but have to pay in BTC. So Bitpay 'sell' the BTC to the customer, pass it to BFL who sell it back into USD via Bitpay (can't pay the real bills with BTC).

Net result, no external trades, no risk and lots of great PR all-round.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I'd put this at 60% likelihood..

I am a conspiracy theorist and I proclaim this scheme to be a rational idea which might very well have been implemented by the involved parties.

Well the problem with most "conspiracy theories" is that the conspiracy would be extremely difficult to orchestrate, and the provided explanation is perfectly reasonable.  In this case, the given explanation, that someone purchased $1,000,000 worth of miners from BFL.... in bitcoin as well.... is pretty striking, to say the least.  And the "conspiracy" would have been very simple to orchestrate.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: superduh on October 29, 2013, 10:30:59 PM
what idiot (besides BFL laundering their own mined coins?) would give bfl a million worth of bitcoins. the stupidest smart person?!?!


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ErisDiscordia on October 29, 2013, 10:36:40 PM
Well the problem with most "conspiracy theories" is that the conspiracy would be extremely difficult to orchestrate, and the provided explanation is perfectly reasonable.  In this case, the given explanation, that someone purchased $1,000,000 worth of miners from BFL.... in bitcoin as well.... is pretty striking, to say the least.  And the "conspiracy" would have been very simple to orchestrate.

There is another problem with conspiracies. Many people have been thoroughly trained to apply either/or thinking in all areas of life. Thus some of them find a theory they like, believe 100% every single piece of it and ascribe everything remotely related to the workings of the conspiracy. Others fall prey to what I call the "Great Conspiracy" - the idea that there actually are no conspiracies in this world. They become convinced that every conspiracy theory is 100% false and not worth paying any attention to.

Forming conspiracies (if you're not part of them) or affinity groups (if you are part of them) is "normal mammalian behavior" as Robert Anton Wilson put it. To believe in a single one running world affairs for centuries, or alternatively, believing that no conspiracies exist seems naive to me. The truth, of course, is that at any given moment there are at least 23 major conspiracies trying to claim power over whatever it is  ;D


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 29, 2013, 10:47:13 PM
what idiot (besides BFL laundering their own mined coins?) would give bfl a million worth of bitcoins. the stupidest smart person?!?!

It's the collective stupidity of many of their customers.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: bassclef on October 30, 2013, 12:01:46 AM
what idiot (besides BFL laundering their own mined coins?) would give bfl a million worth of bitcoins. the stupidest smart person?!?!

My guess is that a million bucks buys you a spot at the front of the line.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: superduh on October 30, 2013, 12:13:58 AM
what idiot (besides BFL laundering their own mined coins?) would give bfl a million worth of bitcoins. the stupidest smart person?!?!

My guess is that a million bucks buys you a spot at the front of the line.

in two weeks.........................


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: bassclef on October 30, 2013, 12:15:54 AM
what idiot (besides BFL laundering their own mined coins?) would give bfl a million worth of bitcoins. the stupidest smart person?!?!

My guess is that a million bucks buys you a spot at the front of the line.

in two weeks.........................

LOL touché :D


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: johnyj on October 30, 2013, 12:28:21 AM
I thought Bitpay insta sells the coins on exchage, how would they know the amount of BTC needed for your order otherwise

They take the risk and take loans.

This is a very aggressive move as long as they can get the loan from the banks (Banks have tons of cash currently hoarded at their reserve account). If they absorb all the coins then the market will run out of coins and the price will rise quickly, and then they could release the coins slowly at a later time. One year's return on coin's appreciation will bypass their operating margin for several magnitudes



Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Cluster2k on October 30, 2013, 12:37:05 AM
I'm sure future customers looking to use bitcoin and bitpay would be very pleased that as soon as they start transacting moderate amounts of money they'll be outed on web sites.  You wouldn't see a bank behaving like that.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 30, 2013, 01:09:13 AM
I'm sure future customers looking to use bitcoin and bitpay would be very pleased that as soon as they start transacting moderate amounts of money they'll be outed on web sites.  You wouldn't see a bank behaving like that.

?

LOL if you think this wasn't a coordinated partnership thing between Bitpay and BFL.  I thought this was common sense.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: BitcoinHeroes on October 30, 2013, 01:36:19 AM
Might dump in few transaction over the few weeks, so if you think this has big impact then sell first and buy later :)


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on October 30, 2013, 02:36:50 AM
Might dump in few transaction over the few weeks, so if you think this has big impact then sell first and buy later :)

This interview today with Galllipi confirms that the BTC has already been absorbed via a combination of private sales and exchange transactions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdV48a-Ay2k

Those hoping for a decline based on this news, will be waiting a long time.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: SheHadMANHands on October 30, 2013, 02:40:32 AM
Might dump in few transaction over the few weeks, so if you think this has big impact then sell first and buy later :)

This interview today with Galllipi confirms that the BTC has already been absorbed via a combination of private sales and exchange transactions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdV48a-Ay2k

Those hoping for a decline based on this news, will be waiting a long time.

Interesting..


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ronaldlee0917 on October 30, 2013, 04:05:32 AM
This 1mil is nothing, what worries me more is the seized bitcoins(BTC140,000) by FBI.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Spekulatius on October 30, 2013, 04:35:57 AM
5000 BTC SELL wall on Bitstamp just now, the dump??


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rpietila on October 30, 2013, 08:56:19 AM
The more bears in the forum, the better.  :D

Golden rule: Bears are bulls that are caught short of their full position. They try to talk the price down. It never works, so they have to buy higher, increasing the price even more in the process.

Read my old post even I growled a week ago in want of $150 coins that never happened. Bought back at $195.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: windjc on October 30, 2013, 09:00:26 AM
The more bears in the forum, the better.  :D

Golden rule: Bears are bulls that are caught short of their full position. They try to talk the price down. It never works, so they have to buy higher, increasing the price even more in the process.

Read my old post even I growled a week ago in want of $150 coins that never happened. Bought back at $195.

We all want it to go up, but its a little arrogant to think we can't go back down. We certainly can. We can go back to <195 or <150 or lower.

Probably not tomorrow, but things could certainly happen.

We would not need to reverse trend down for more than a handful or days or weeks to go below 195 again. And even if this thing goes to 300, we could easily flash crash to <150.

I think we hang out in a $20-$40 range for a bit before testing the ATHs early next year, but that doesn't mean even 2014 want see some days (or hours) under 150.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 30, 2013, 09:07:58 AM
There will certanly be more flash crashes with BTC, i see that volume of BTC are increasing now in free market


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Tzupy on October 30, 2013, 09:14:26 AM
The drop is imminent, but it remains to be seen if there will be 3 drops in relatively quick succession or just 1 followed by a slow recovery.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ninjaboon on October 30, 2013, 11:44:21 AM
The more bears in the forum, the better.  :D

Golden rule: Bears are bulls that are caught short of their full position. They try to talk the price down. It never works, so they have to buy higher, increasing the price even more in the process.

Read my old post even I growled a week ago in want of $150 coins that never happened. Bought back at $195.

We all want it to go up, but its a little arrogant to think we can't go back down. We certainly can. We can go back to <195 or <150 or lower.

Probably not tomorrow, but things could certainly happen.

We would not need to reverse trend down for more than a handful or days or weeks to go below 195 again. And even if this thing goes to 300, we could easily flash crash to <150.

I think we hang out in a $20-$40 range for a bit before testing the ATHs early next year, but that doesn't mean even 2014 want see some days (or hours) under 150.

Last time we broke an ATH, the "bubble" continued to inflate 8 times higher before crashing/correcting...

So we can expect a new ATH somewhere between $1500 and $2500, followed by a crash to "below $500" and a new stable price around $1000...

Just wait and see.



I was thinking the same thing. My crystal balls says it will happen end of Dec 2013. Don't quote me.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: ninjaboon on October 30, 2013, 11:44:49 AM
This 1mil is nothing, what worries me more is the seized bitcoins(BTC140,000) by FBI.

why do you worry?


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 30, 2013, 12:25:27 PM
Volume of BTC in offered is increasin fast, as i see now so i am expectnig another dump of BTCs


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rpietila on October 30, 2013, 12:31:54 PM
Last time we broke an ATH, the "bubble" continued to inflate 8 times higher before crashing/correcting...

So we can expect a new ATH somewhere between $1500 and $2500, followed by a crash to "below $500" and a new stable price around $1000...

Just wait and see.

Sounds about right.

The reason why I keep my BTC/fiat ratio at about 20:1 almost always is that there is not so much regularity in bitcoin that would easily allow trading strategies that enable you to consistently increase your BTC holdings, relative to simple buy & hold.

The most difficult part is megamoves, such as Jan 15-Apr 10, 2013. Tell me about even one trader who managed to increase his bitcoin stash during this period! Yet all simpletons such as me managed to keep theirs intact by just refusing to trade. (Minimizes taxes also)


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: gaston909 on October 30, 2013, 01:08:42 PM
Nobody bought 1 mil of BFL equipment.

It's a late april fools story.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 30, 2013, 03:03:40 PM
On Gox a million USD dump would still only go down just under $200.   This would be a normal dump and most likely recovered in an hour or so.
5k would have been a normal dump 6 months ago. 5k is a massive dump now and no way would the price recover in one hour, especially if done on one exchange. Panic would probably kick in.

there will be no panic. How much money is invested to BTC we can only dream about it

Oh? What was that that happened October 23rd (6 days ago)? An instant 25% drop in price (Gox), but no panic? Hmmm.

Ppl are waiting for dump, and inc1-2 daS btc will recover again


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Tzupy on October 30, 2013, 03:43:49 PM
The drop is imminent, but it remains to be seen if there will be 3 drops in relatively quick succession or just 1 followed by a slow recovery.

The market seems undecided which way to go. Maybe there are too many drunk traders?


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 30, 2013, 04:17:06 PM
market rly dont know where to go, up or down


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: 600watt on October 30, 2013, 08:25:17 PM
The drop is imminent, but it remains to be seen if there will be 3 drops in relatively quick succession or just 1 followed by a slow recovery.

to all those drops/downswing/bursting/correction/etc/etc bubbles talking:

30 day average gox $:       166,- currently at 208 $
30 day average bstamp $:  154,- currently at 199 $

smells rosy, nothing rotten here  ;)


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: windjc on October 30, 2013, 08:53:44 PM
The more bears in the forum, the better.  :D

Golden rule: Bears are bulls that are caught short of their full position. They try to talk the price down. It never works, so they have to buy higher, increasing the price even more in the process.

Read my old post even I growled a week ago in want of $150 coins that never happened. Bought back at $195.

We all want it to go up, but its a little arrogant to think we can't go back down. We certainly can. We can go back to <195 or <150 or lower.

Probably not tomorrow, but things could certainly happen.

We would not need to reverse trend down for more than a handful or days or weeks to go below 195 again. And even if this thing goes to 300, we could easily flash crash to <150.

I think we hang out in a $20-$40 range for a bit before testing the ATHs early next year, but that doesn't mean even 2014 want see some days (or hours) under 150.

Last time we broke an ATH, the "bubble" continued to inflate 8 times higher before crashing/correcting...

So we can expect a new ATH somewhere between $1500 and $2500, followed by a crash to "below $500" and a new stable price around $1000...

Just wait and see.



No. This is faulty logic. It assumes that its just as easy to go from $150 to $2500 as it is to go from $15 to $266. This is just not true. The amount of cash into the markets to make this happen is an exponential amount.

It is in fact several times more difficult to have a rise like this. And IF a rise that this occured, it would occur over a MUCH longer period of time. Consider how long a period of time it took the 2000 dot com bubble to build. Months. Actually years.

Of course that bubble was several magnitudes beyond what a BTC climb to 2500 would be, but the point is still the same.

The next "bubble" won't be from here to $2500.  Not unless you assume a scenario where there is a slow rise for several months/years that is predicated on no solid fundamentals developing within Bitcoin between now and then.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: notme on October 30, 2013, 09:00:55 PM
Price reacts exponentially to a linear demand increase when supply is perfectly inelastic, as is the case with Bitcoin.  But nice try.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: barbs on October 30, 2013, 09:18:13 PM
Price reacts exponentially to a linear demand increase when supply is perfectly inelastic, as is the case with Bitcoin.  But nice try.

Hold on - You're talking about supply of the entire bitcoin network. You're neglecting that what's available on the exchanges, orderbooks, etc is not the entire picture and any new BTC can come in at any minute potentially huge amounts.  Wouldn't this go against your assumption that supply is "perfectly inelastic"


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: windjc on October 30, 2013, 09:51:30 PM
Price reacts exponentially to a linear demand increase when supply is perfectly inelastic, as is the case with Bitcoin.  But nice try.

Its not nearly that inelastic. To go to $2500, someone has to pay you $2500 for that bitcoin.

If you think its going to balloon from where we are now to $2500 in a bubble, you'll see.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: tampazeus on October 30, 2013, 10:04:23 PM
No. This is faulty logic. It assumes that its just as easy to go from $150 to $2500 as it is to go from $15 to $266. This is just not true. The amount of cash into the markets to make this happen is an exponential amount.

It holds if the volume of trades in both periods ($150 to $2500  and  $15 to $266) is the same, but it doesnt need to be the case


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: windjc on October 30, 2013, 10:11:11 PM
No. This is faulty logic. It assumes that its just as easy to go from $150 to $2500 as it is to go from $15 to $266. This is just not true. The amount of cash into the markets to make this happen is an exponential amount.

It holds if the volume of trades in both periods ($150 to $2500  and  $15 to $266) is the same, but it doesnt need to be the case

Yeah, if the volume of trades is the same - but for the volume of trades to be the same the currency volume is exponential. That's why its not going to happen. Not until a billion more dollars finds its way into the market.

Once we get a billion more dollars of liquidity, then lets talk about going to $2500, bubble or otherwise.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on October 31, 2013, 06:26:53 AM
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1pgny0/bitpay_processes_1_million_transaction_for/

Its for BFL btw. How and when will they convert the coins to USD?

Anybody knows?

Without reading any further then the OP, I may be able to answer.

Since BitPay now has the coins, they'll know how to liquidate them in such a way to not effect the price by much. Besides, they have a lot more than this $1M worth of BTC in cold storage as anybody would be able to see via the Block Chain.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on October 31, 2013, 07:05:01 AM
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1pgny0/bitpay_processes_1_million_transaction_for/

Its for BFL btw. How and when will they convert the coins to USD?

Anybody knows?

Without reading any further then the OP, I may be able to answer.

Since BitPay now has the coins, they'll know how to liquidate them in such a way to not effect the price by much. Besides, they have a lot more than this $1M worth of BTC in cold storage as anybody would be able to see via the Block Chain.


yes i am thinking the same as you man, they are not stupid to dump all thoose coins once and loose 1/2 profit


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: bclcjunkie on November 01, 2013, 02:16:22 AM
+1 spot on..

The more bears in the forum, the better.  :D

Golden rule: Bears are bulls that are caught short of their full position. They try to talk the price down. It never works, so they have to buy higher, increasing the price even more in the process.

Read my old post even I growled a week ago in want of $150 coins that never happened. Bought back at $195.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: bclcjunkie on November 01, 2013, 02:21:34 AM
precisely.. i guess bears trying to talk the price down heh... bitpay is not some amateur rushing out to dump the coins.. a payment processor company like that obviously knows exactly what to do to avoid such scenarios.. that applies to pretty much to any business that deals with demand and supply... ;D

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1pgny0/bitpay_processes_1_million_transaction_for/

Its for BFL btw. How and when will they convert the coins to USD?

Anybody knows?

Without reading any further then the OP, I may be able to answer.

Since BitPay now has the coins, they'll know how to liquidate them in such a way to not effect the price by much. Besides, they have a lot more than this $1M worth of BTC in cold storage as anybody would be able to see via the Block Chain.


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on November 01, 2013, 10:02:05 AM
precisely.. i guess bulls trying to talk the price down heh... bitpay is not some amateur rushing out to dump the coins.. a payment processor company like that obviously knows exactly what to do to avoid such scenarios.. that applies to pretty much to any business that deals with demand and supply... ;D

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1pgny0/bitpay_processes_1_million_transaction_for/

Its for BFL btw. How and when will they convert the coins to USD?

Anybody knows?

Without reading any further then the OP, I may be able to answer.

Since BitPay now has the coins, they'll know how to liquidate them in such a way to not effect the price by much. Besides, they have a lot more than this $1M worth of BTC in cold storage as anybody would be able to see via the Block Chain.


why whould BITpay dumps the  coins and then loose 1/2 his profit?! It is pure logic


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: superduh on November 03, 2013, 08:49:35 PM
What was HashTrade thinking..  Who will buy their bfl contracts


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: rampalija on November 04, 2013, 11:08:05 PM
Still no dump XD


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on November 05, 2013, 04:24:31 AM
Still no dump XD

BitPay won't do a dump. BTW, has anybody hunted down the tx? It'll be easy to spot. Just look for a 1000000 USD transaction. I think I'll post a bounty in Project Development.

~TMIBITW


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: Shallow on November 05, 2013, 05:31:23 AM
Just wow. Who spends 1m on BFL??


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: derpinheimer on November 05, 2013, 05:32:48 AM
Still no dump XD

BitPay won't do a dump. BTW, has anybody hunted down the tx? It'll be easy to spot. Just look for a 1000000 USD transaction. I think I'll post a bounty in Project Development.

~TMIBITW

I thought it was already dumped on Bitstamp a few days ago..?


Title: Re: Bitpay just processed its first 1,000,000 USD order, Dump incoming?
Post by: BarkinTree on November 05, 2013, 05:52:20 AM
Still no dump XD

BitPay won't do a dump. BTW, has anybody hunted down the tx? It'll be easy to spot. Just look for a 1000000 USD transaction. I think I'll post a bounty in Project Development.

~TMIBITW

I thought it was already dumped on Bitstamp a few days ago..?
heard something about it being already done, through a combination of private sale and exchanges sales