Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 08:19:00 AM



Title: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 08:19:00 AM
I wonder what will happen when BTC will be around 1000USD.

Will the adoption of BTC continue? or will it be halted and people will start buying altcoins because they are basically the same and they are much cheaper.

Isn't it possible that instead of 100000USD worth of BTC, we will  remain in current price and we will have dozens of altcoins valued 100-1000USD each?



Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: windjc on November 26, 2013, 08:19:59 AM
You need to go to do SERIOUS research and then come back and start trading.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 08:44:47 AM
You need to go to do SERIOUS research and then come back and start trading.

Thank you for letting me know how much smarter you are than me. your answer was really helpful. I am lucky you saw my post.
So I assume you don't think this will happen. If you write here, why can't you just explain why this ain't possible?



Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: Canaanite on November 26, 2013, 09:06:49 AM
It is all about growth and not about price...

Bitcoin can be divided into really small "cents", a person doesn't need to hold and trade a whole bitcoin, he can buy and trade with parts of it.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: arepo on November 26, 2013, 09:07:34 AM
I wonder what will happen when BTC will be around 1000USD.

Will the adoption of BTC continue? or will it be halted and people will start buying altcoins because they are basically the same and they are much cheaper.

Isn't it possible that instead of 100000USD worth of BTC, we will  remain in current price and we will have dozens of altcoins valued 100-1000USD each?

You need to go to do SERIOUS research and then come back and start trading.

Thank you for letting me know how much smarter you are than me. your answer was really helpful. I am lucky you saw my post.
So I assume you don't think this will happen. If you write here, why can't you just explain why this ain't possible?

you'll have to excuse him, the OP does seem rather misinformed. but maybe i can help you out.

what reason do you have to believe that this scenario is likely? there is one large difference between bitcoin and the altcoins, and that is that bitcoin, at this point, has far more inertia both in its existing infrastructure (its utility) and its memetic exposure (its ubiquity). due to this, the fact that they are basically the same is a terrible weakness for altcoins. it is my belief that unless a similar protocol with significantly greater utility is developed (say, in response to a 'fatal flaw' that emerges from the interaction between the Bitcoin Protocol and its actual incidence in the world), bitcoin will remain the primary altcoin in terms of market cap.

it seems almost ludicrous to suggest that suddenly capital will flow from anywhere into altcoins, and that capital will cease flowing into bitcoin, at the price-point of $1000 BTCUSD.

--arepo


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: seriouscoin on November 26, 2013, 09:23:01 AM
You need to go to do SERIOUS research and then come back and start trading.

Thank you for letting me know how much smarter you are than me. your answer was really helpful. I am lucky you saw my post.
So I assume you don't think this will happen. If you write here, why can't you just explain why this ain't possible?



I dont see him being cruel to you. If you value yourself, then why dont you educate yourself? rather than having spoonfed all the time.

You cant just whip up 5 yrs of computation and call your altcoin the same.

Did you even think it throughly?

Lets assume ppl are as stupid as you said and think altcoin is just "the same" what makes them buying altcoins when another coins will come out later?



Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 09:50:40 AM
you'll have to excuse him, the OP does seem rather misinformed. but maybe i can help you out.

what reason do you have to believe that this scenario is likely? there is one large difference between bitcoin and the altcoins, and that is that bitcoin, at this point, has far more inertia both in its existing infrastructure (its utility) and its memetic exposure (its ubiquity). due to this, the fact that they are basically the same is a terrible weakness for altcoins. it is my belief that unless a similar protocol with significantly greater utility is developed (say, in response to a 'fatal flaw' that emerges from the interaction between the Bitcoin Protocol and its actual incidence in the world), bitcoin will remain the primary altcoin in terms of market cap.

it seems almost ludicrous to suggest that suddenly capital will flow from anywhere into altcoins, and that capital will cease flowing into bitcoin, at the price-point of $1000 BTCUSD.

--arepo

It is all about growth and not about price...

Bitcoin can be divided into really small "cents", a person doesn't need to hold and trade a whole bitcoin, he can buy and trade with parts of it.



I should have explained myself sorry. I believe that only a small fraction of the people invested in BTC truly grasp the revolutionary idea of it and
only people like us, lurking around in this form and doing research really grasp the economic significance of it.
The majority of people who buy it just buy it because it goes up and they want to be rich. They don't know shit about the price being irrelevant, the diversification ability and that the banks screw us up and we need to fight them.
What matters is what the majority thinks, and I think that people might say that BTC is too high now, we missed that train, lets buy some LTC because it is still cheap, and when LTC is high also they move on to the next altcoin and so on.
People might think that it is better to buy 100 LTC instead of 1 BTC because 100>1.




Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 09:53:20 AM



Lets assume ppl are as stupid as you said and think altcoin is just "the same" what makes them buying altcoins when another coins will come out later?



I really don't know... maybe they want to buy LTC at 10USD and sell it 10 time higher. For most people this is only a get rich schem IMHO.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: over1977v on November 26, 2013, 10:15:46 AM
Isn't it possible that instead of 100000USD worth of BTC, we will  remain in current price and we will have dozens of altcoins valued 100-1000USD each?

Only if people and merchants actually use altcoins, but I doubt altcoins have good future, there are many already and even more will be created as time goes.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 02:47:42 PM
Isn't it possible that instead of 100000USD worth of BTC, we will  remain in current price and we will have dozens of altcoins valued 100-1000USD each?

Only if people and merchants actually use altcoins, but I doubt altcoins have good future, there are many already and even more will be created as time goes.

well LTC is now 14USD. Doesn't it bother you at all?




Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: NUFCrichard on November 26, 2013, 03:17:39 PM
There are loads of copycat fiat currencies, why can't there be lots of copycat crypto currencies?


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 04:11:41 PM
There are loads of copycat fiat currencies, why can't there be lots of copycat crypto currencies?

I didn't say it can't be. I just want to understand if I should buy also altcoins or should I stick with BTC. just wanted some opinions on this subject.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: DeathAndTaxes on November 26, 2013, 04:15:54 PM
One word.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect

Ok I lied it is two words.

That being said I do think either
a) other alternatives will eat into Bitcoins "marketshare"
or
b) Bitcoin will be replaced by something vastly superior.

Most of the lets change a couple variables and call it an alternative will die out though.  They will never gain a sufficiently sized network to be anything of real value (>$1B in money supply or >$10B in annual transaction volume).


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: piramida on November 26, 2013, 04:17:09 PM
You question, in other terms, sounds exactly like "Wont' people start buying lead and copper once gold hits $1000/ounce?". I.e., totally silly. Much of the value of bitcoin is not in the algorithm, but in specifically manufactured hashing devices network and reputation and a crowd of followers and businesses and established professional developers team, and the name that is a brand in itself, with all the media coverage, etc. ShitCoins don't have any of that.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 04:43:52 PM
You question, in other terms, sounds exactly like "Wont' people start buying lead and copper once gold hits $1000/ounce?". I.e., totally silly. Much of the value of bitcoin is not in the algorithm, but in specifically manufactured hashing devices network and reputation and a crowd of followers and businesses and established professional developers team, and the name that is a brand in itself, with all the media coverage, etc. ShitCoins don't have any of that.

So you don't have any altcoins?


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: piramida on November 26, 2013, 04:51:47 PM

So you don't have any altcoins?

No, I find that pointless. I use them to speculate sometimes, but prefer to exit into bitcoins after that. See, if something bad happens to bitcoin, all the altcoins would lose value even quicker. The only altcoin worth holding could be an altcoin which provides some additional functionality, like NMC (should have been), others have traction purely because of the need for old GPUs to mine something since they can't compete with asics anymore.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: damnek on November 26, 2013, 04:58:41 PM
I think this should be the future of virtual currencies. At a technical level it is not difficult to develop a wallet that connects to numerous virtual currencies. Then your wealth will be expressed in terms of the altcoin index. I think the rise of altcoins will (to some extent) dilute the value of bitcoin and solve its deflation problem. I think the next big move in the cryptocurrencies space is that the market will rebalance the value of bitcoin with respect to the altcoins.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: Edward50 on November 26, 2013, 04:59:57 PM
I wonder what will happen when BTC will be around 1000USD.

Will the adoption of BTC continue? or will it be halted and people will start buying altcoins because they are basically the same and they are much cheaper.

Isn't it possible that instead of 100000USD worth of BTC, we will  remain in current price and we will have dozens of altcoins valued 100-1000USD each?



This is my take on it.

The adoption of BTC will continue and the adoption of alt-coins will continue and some of them will have greater price increases than bitcoin.

Established alt-coins have been mostly moving with the price of bitcoin. Actually many alt-coins have been increasing in their price ratio against bitcoin.  Bitcoin will still be priced the highest.

I think with the higher bit-coin price, more people will get into alt coins. mostly for the simple fact that the price swings will be greater in alt-coins. I think the price of these coins are mostly based on speculation, lets face it nobody needs any of them at this point but they are great to speculate with.

The big factor that you have not brought up is if bitcoin splits into mbtc or something, so that a 1000 dollar bitcoin is now a 1usd mbtc. This would be the smart thing for bitcoin to do in my opinion.





Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: Rygon on November 26, 2013, 05:03:53 PM
Bitcoin was a big leap in monetary technology. The altcoins are just variations or minor improvements on that new technology. Bitcoin will be the most popular for years to come for the same reasons that the majority of the world's Christians are Catholics as opposed to one of those alt-Christian denominations. With societial technologies, it's hard to shift the momentum from the first application (Catholicism or Bitcoin) because people are far more likely to be exposed to it.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 05:25:11 PM

The big factor that you have not brought up is if bitcoin splits into mbtc or something, so that a 1000 dollar bitcoin is now a 1usd mbtc. This would be the smart thing for bitcoin to do in my opinion.


My thoughts exactly.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: the_sunship on November 26, 2013, 05:30:03 PM
+1

i would also like to see mBTC.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: DeathAndTaxes on November 26, 2013, 05:43:57 PM
The big factor that you have not brought up is if bitcoin splits into mbtc or something, so that a 1000 dollar bitcoin is now a 1usd mbtc. This would be the smart thing for bitcoin to do in my opinion.

"for Bitcoin to do".  Remember Bitcoin can't do anything.  The protocol already supports divisions down to 1 sat.  When you send "1 BTC" you are actually transfering a value = 100000000.  Most clients allow you to show balances in mBTC, uBTC or satoshis. 

There will be no formal proclemation.  If MtGox tomorrow wanted to change their exchange to show bids, quotes, and balances in mBTC they could and if they don't want to for the next decade nobody can force them.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: Rival on November 26, 2013, 06:00:46 PM
No one ever said it will not be possible to profit from altcoins.

Aside from a potential for profit by traders and miners , there is no real reason for any of them to exist so long as the bitcoin network maintains it's integrity.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: Syke on November 26, 2013, 06:12:22 PM
Isn't it possible that instead of 100000USD worth of BTC, we will  remain in current price and we will have dozens of altcoins valued 100-1000USD each?

I think it's possible in the long run. Bitcoin isn't everything to everyone. For instance, bitcoin is currently poorly suited to microtransactions and fast confirmations. It may not be possible to add that to bitcoin. Eventually a micro-transaction fast altcoin may gain significant traction.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: hacknoid on November 26, 2013, 07:05:21 PM
The big factor that you have not brought up is if bitcoin splits into mbtc or something, so that a 1000 dollar bitcoin is now a 1usd mbtc. This would be the smart thing for bitcoin to do in my opinion.

"for Bitcoin to do".  Remember Bitcoin can't do anything.  The protocol already supports divisions down to 1 sat.  When you send "1 BTC" you are actually transfering a value = 100000000.  Most clients allow you to show balances in mBTC, uBTC or satoshis. 

There will be no formal proclemation.  If MtGox tomorrow wanted to change their exchange to show bids, quotes, and balances in mBTC they could and if they don't want to for the next decade nobody can force them.

Exactly.  A bitcoin won't "split into mbtc" - it already IS mBTC - exactly 1000 of them.  Or exactly 1,000,000 uBTC.  They are the same thing.  So a 1000 dollar bitcoin already is a 1 dollar mBTC.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: justanickname on November 26, 2013, 07:20:21 PM
The big factor that you have not brought up is if bitcoin splits into mbtc or something, so that a 1000 dollar bitcoin is now a 1usd mbtc. This would be the smart thing for bitcoin to do in my opinion.

"for Bitcoin to do".  Remember Bitcoin can't do anything.  The protocol already supports divisions down to 1 sat.  When you send "1 BTC" you are actually transfering a value = 100000000.  Most clients allow you to show balances in mBTC, uBTC or satoshis. 

There will be no formal proclemation.  If MtGox tomorrow wanted to change their exchange to show bids, quotes, and balances in mBTC they could and if they don't want to for the next decade nobody can force them.

Exactly.  A bitcoin won't "split into mbtc" - it already IS mBTC - exactly 1000 of them.  Or exactly 1,000,000 uBTC.  They are the same thing.  So a 1000 dollar bitcoin already is a 1 dollar mBTC.

The point is branding. no one wants to buy 1 coin for 1000 dollars but buying a coin for 1 dollar seems cheap.
Of course it is the same but most people are dumb and act emotionally.


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: superduh on November 26, 2013, 07:43:09 PM
one mbtc is worth $1! problem solved


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: hacknoid on November 27, 2013, 01:45:46 AM
The big factor that you have not brought up is if bitcoin splits into mbtc or something, so that a 1000 dollar bitcoin is now a 1usd mbtc. This would be the smart thing for bitcoin to do in my opinion.

"for Bitcoin to do".  Remember Bitcoin can't do anything.  The protocol already supports divisions down to 1 sat.  When you send "1 BTC" you are actually transfering a value = 100000000.  Most clients allow you to show balances in mBTC, uBTC or satoshis. 

There will be no formal proclemation.  If MtGox tomorrow wanted to change their exchange to show bids, quotes, and balances in mBTC they could and if they don't want to for the next decade nobody can force them.

Exactly.  A bitcoin won't "split into mbtc" - it already IS mBTC - exactly 1000 of them.  Or exactly 1,000,000 uBTC.  They are the same thing.  So a 1000 dollar bitcoin already is a 1 dollar mBTC.

The point is branding. no one wants to buy 1 coin for 1000 dollars but buying a coin for 1 dollar seems cheap.
Of course it is the same but most people are dumb and act emotionally.

Yup - and you are 100% correct on that.  If current prices were quoted per mBTC, people would hardly bat an eye at the fluctuations because it would look like a penny stock.  I just take exception because there are people that talk about BTC making a "split" like it was a stock. 

It's definitely about marketing.  A bitcoin is still a bitcoin, but the price is $0.90 per mBTC is certainly a lot less intimidating (especially when I have seen people who are still apparently not aware that you can buy a portion of a bitcoin...)


Title: Re: BTC diluted,possible scenario?
Post by: ImI on November 27, 2013, 02:38:02 AM

mBTC or BTC doesnt matter.

only thing that matters in terms of dillution is marketcap. and therefore the big marketcap of btc leads to lesser swings.

altcoins are attractive cause they still offer the possibility of very strong profits cause they have so little marketcaps.

problem for bitcoin? maybe. but not at the moment i'd say.