Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: EuSouBitcoin on October 12, 2011, 03:44:17 AM



Title: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: EuSouBitcoin on October 12, 2011, 03:44:17 AM
BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March. Down 88% from it's high of $32. For those who are long BTC, the trend is not your friend.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: johnj on October 12, 2011, 03:50:01 AM
At that rate, it'll be at -34 some time next summer.

But your calculation doesn't take into account the massive growth that preceded your projection.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: Raptorblaze on October 12, 2011, 03:52:08 AM
Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: johnj on October 12, 2011, 03:56:54 AM
Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: payb.tc on October 12, 2011, 04:32:11 AM
BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: 1up on October 12, 2011, 04:34:05 AM
Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: payb.tc on October 12, 2011, 04:43:12 AM
Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_(video_game))


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: Swishercutter on October 12, 2011, 05:18:44 AM
Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_(video_game))


Lol...I find it funny that the people with the lowest post counts are the ones who talk down the most.  Am I right?  I wonder what the ratio is of new "actual users" vs. "sock puppets" is.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: SomeoneWeird on October 12, 2011, 08:43:02 AM
Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_(video_game))


Didn't you mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_(series) ?


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: bulanula on October 12, 2011, 08:48:08 AM
Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_(video_game))


Lol...I find it funny that the people with the lowest post counts are the ones who talk down the most.  Am I right?  I wonder what the ratio is of new "actual users" vs. "sock puppets" is.

100 : 1  ;D


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: fennec on October 12, 2011, 09:13:16 AM
BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png


Awesome reference.

;D


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: payb.tc on October 12, 2011, 09:59:52 AM
BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png


Awesome reference.

;D

thanks. i was also tempted to quote disco stu:

Quote
Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue... AAY!




Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: EuSouBitcoin on October 12, 2011, 12:54:06 PM
After my original post, I received a friendly visit from 2 gentlemen that work or don't work at the NSA. I was a little confused about that part. They logically explained my errors in reasoning. I now see that on a long-term basis, BTC is on a parabolic rise from zero in Feb 2009. The short and intermediate trend don't matter. The long-term trend is what matters. Therefore, I'd like to officially change from a Bitcoin bear to a Bitcoin bull. I expect BTC to be $100 by November, $1,000 by January and $10,000 by March. The train is leaving the station. Woo-Woo! Don't get left behind. This time is different. It's a paradigm shift of historical proportions. Bitcoin is like Dianetics for money with Satoshi being L. Ron Hubbard. All we need is for someone to convert Tom Cruise.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: 72289 on October 12, 2011, 02:26:44 PM
After my original post, I received a friendly visit from 2 gentlemen that work or don't work at the NSA. I was a little confused about that part. They logically explained my errors in reasoning. I now see that on a long-term basis, BTC is on a parabolic rise from zero in Feb 2009. The short and intermediate trend don't matter. The long-term trend is what matters. Therefore, I'd like to officially change from a Bitcoin bear to a Bitcoin bull. I expect BTC to be $100 by November, $1,000 by January and $10,000 by March. The train is leaving the station. Woo-Woo! Don't get left behind. This time is different. It's a paradigm shift of historical proportions. Bitcoin is like Dianetics for money with Satoshi being L. Ron Hubbard. All we need is for someone to convert Tom Cruise.

Too late for Cruise, he went with the CosbyCoin.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: netrin on October 12, 2011, 03:04:54 PM
In an earlier thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44193.msg529808#msg529808) I calculated that bitcoin depreciated at a nearly hyperinflationary 43% monthly rate (just shy of Cagan's 50% threshold) or 1.76% daily between 8 June and 8 September. That rate is decelerating and for the past month has been 'only' 33% depreciation or 1.35% daily (10% error as for example 11 September saw both $5 and $7).

The bottoming out of the five month parabola is obvious on the linear chart but less so on the log.


Phillip Cagan, The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, in Milton Friedman (Editor), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Chicago: University of Chicago Press (1956).


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: RodeoX on October 12, 2011, 03:24:53 PM
As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: Swishercutter on October 12, 2011, 03:37:50 PM
As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

Mt.Gox had nothing to do with Paypal so your statement is false.  BTC sold on the exchanges for that price.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: BadBear on October 12, 2011, 03:42:33 PM
As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

With less typing/clicking than you did in this post, you could have proven yourself wrong. 


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: gewure on October 12, 2011, 04:29:34 PM
BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png



Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: RodeoX on October 12, 2011, 04:40:46 PM
As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

Mt.Gox had nothing to do with Paypal so your statement is false.  BTC sold on the exchanges for that price.
Well, I remember when it happened. I don't trade at Mt.Gox, so I don't know about that. Where I trade the price was only high for about 1 day, and most of the $30+ offers turned out to be paypal chargebacks.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: danman87 on October 12, 2011, 07:31:15 PM
Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

It takes electricity to keep bitcoin going so if it fell to $0 then it would be negative if you include to power cost.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: defxor on October 12, 2011, 10:14:24 PM
As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32

I bought at bitmarket.eu on the evening (CET) of 9th of June, which should be very near the all time high, at 21.5/BTC which according to the exchange rates at the time would be $31.23.

Yes, I make sure to tell everyone I introduce to Bitcoin that I bought at the height of a bubble. It helps in avoiding coming off as someone who peddles a ponzi scam.



Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: Edward50 on October 17, 2011, 05:02:37 PM
HA this guy was wrong, half life is even less now.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: netrin on October 17, 2011, 05:23:56 PM
If you choose the monthly high (22 September) and low (today), prices have hyperinflated (50-62%), whereas the trend since June has been about 42% monthly depreciation. I don't think that invalidates the OP's point though. We was spot on yesterday. You can't arbitrarily choose your points, such as today's low.


Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: the founder on October 17, 2011, 05:29:01 PM
keep printing them at almost 5 BTC every minute..  it's good for the bitcoin economy.... right?



Title: Re: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks
Post by: netrin on October 17, 2011, 05:59:22 PM
keep printing them at almost 5 BTC every minute..  it's good for the bitcoin economy.... right?
Are you referring to bitcoin monetary inflation? Do the math Mr. Banker. It's irrelevant. As I stated earlier (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48669.msg579441#msg579441), monetary inflation is 0.1% daily. But we've experienced ten times that since June and orders of magnitude of appreciation over the years. Of demand, volatility, and supply, only demand is the significant independent variable.