Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks

[EuSouBitcoin]

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March. Down 88% from it's high of $32. For those who are long BTC, the trend is not your friend.

[johnj]

At that rate, it'll be at -34 some time next summer.

But your calculation doesn't take into account the massive growth that preceded your projection.

[Raptorblaze]

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

[johnj]

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

[payb.tc]

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

[1up]

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

[payb.tc]

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life

[Swishercutter]

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life

Lol...I find it funny that the people with the lowest post counts are the ones who talk down the most.  Am I right?  I wonder what the ratio is of new "actual users" vs. "sock puppets" is.

[SomeoneWeird]

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life

Didn't you mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_(series) ?

[bulanula]

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life

Lol...I find it funny that the people with the lowest post counts are the ones who talk down the most.  Am I right?  I wonder what the ratio is of new "actual users" vs. "sock puppets" is.

100 : 1 

[fennec]

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

Awesome reference.

[payb.tc]

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png

Awesome reference.

thanks. i was also tempted to quote disco stu:

Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue... AAY!

[EuSouBitcoin]

After my original post, I received a friendly visit from 2 gentlemen that work or don't work at the NSA. I was a little confused about that part. They logically explained my errors in reasoning. I now see that on a long-term basis, BTC is on a parabolic rise from zero in Feb 2009. The short and intermediate trend don't matter. The long-term trend is what matters. Therefore, I'd like to officially change from a Bitcoin bear to a Bitcoin bull. I expect BTC to be $100 by November, $1,000 by January and $10,000 by March. The train is leaving the station. Woo-Woo! Don't get left behind. This time is different. It's a paradigm shift of historical proportions. Bitcoin is like Dianetics for money with Satoshi being L. Ron Hubbard. All we need is for someone to convert Tom Cruise.

[72289]

After my original post, I received a friendly visit from 2 gentlemen that work or don't work at the NSA. I was a little confused about that part. They logically explained my errors in reasoning. I now see that on a long-term basis, BTC is on a parabolic rise from zero in Feb 2009. The short and intermediate trend don't matter. The long-term trend is what matters. Therefore, I'd like to officially change from a Bitcoin bear to a Bitcoin bull. I expect BTC to be $100 by November, $1,000 by January and $10,000 by March. The train is leaving the station. Woo-Woo! Don't get left behind. This time is different. It's a paradigm shift of historical proportions. Bitcoin is like Dianetics for money with Satoshi being L. Ron Hubbard. All we need is for someone to convert Tom Cruise.

Too late for Cruise, he went with the CosbyCoin.

[netrin]

In an earlier thread I calculated that bitcoin depreciated at a nearly hyperinflationary 43% monthly rate (just shy of Cagan's 50% threshold) or 1.76% daily between 8 June and 8 September. That rate is decelerating and for the past month has been 'only' 33% depreciation or 1.35% daily (10% error as for example 11 September saw both $5 and $7).

The bottoming out of the five month parabola is obvious on the linear chart but less so on the log.

Phillip Cagan, The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, in Milton Friedman (Editor), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Chicago: University of Chicago Press (1956).

[RodeoX]

As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

[Swishercutter]

As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

Mt.Gox had nothing to do with Paypal so your statement is false.  BTC sold on the exchanges for that price.

[BadBear]

As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

With less typing/clicking than you did in this post, you could have proven yourself wrong. 

[gewure]

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

[RodeoX]

As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

Mt.Gox had nothing to do with Paypal so your statement is false.  BTC sold on the exchanges for that price.

Well, I remember when it happened. I don't trade at Mt.Gox, so I don't know about that. Where I trade the price was only high for about 1 day, and most of the $30+ offers turned out to be paypal chargebacks.