Bitcoin Forum

If you look at the chart of the Bitcoin price, it has formed a clear descending triangle with support at about $6000. Resistance is keeping the peak of each bullish run lower than the previous one for the past few months.  If I can find a good chart to post, I'll add it in later.

I believe that this is a bearish signal that the price could likely break below $6000 soon. 

Do you agree and if so, when do you think it will drop below that key support level?

Probably next month it will drop under 6000 but hard to say. I hope it never gets that low again.

we have not dropped below $5800 since november 2017

there have been multiple attempts and massive amount of time for opportunity but no one has dared.
looking at the UTXO set of fund movements. over 65% of coins in circulation have passed hands in that time. meaning 65% of coins have now settled at a rate of value above $5800.(they wont sell for less than they acquired them)

mining costs have also risen.. 43exa network hash was the cost equivalent for mining a coin at $5800, this too has risen. so there is alot of support above $5800.

personally id say its too early to shout out this weeks average support as any mile stone. and this months support is still too early. and the 3-10 month support is still the same at $5,800
so im still holding onto the 3-10 month mark as it has alot of coin and mining support that will keep it up..

that said.
october will see some new ASICs that offer cheaper hashing. and so by the delivery date of november. if the hashrate isnt at 90exa then there are some miners with new rigs that can profit even if they sold below $5800. due to the efficiencies of these new rigs.. so i can see we might get another retest in late october/november (if network hashrate doesnt climb to higher numbers of 90exa to counteract the efficiency).
but with that said. the number of pools who would actually have that equipment and the amount of coin they manage to produce in a short nough time to be profitable to actually then sell off to cause an impact would be small too. so its not a warning that the price will drop. but a possibility if the markets were already near the bottomline that just a few extra pokes would make a small dip

maybe it will happen in early 2019, studying price movements in the table every year prices tend to stabilize nearing the end of the year, and start falling in March, April, as happened this year. now I also retain the coins that I have.

And with that, can we say that we can have another major correction since this miners will dump in $5800?

Honestly, I thought that this year will be better than 2017 and the first quarter of the year was just a trap and as we go along by the end of the year, it seems to be worsen. Yet it's too early to conclude but we should always expect less.

no calm down.
think about it only 1800 coins are made a day.
so IF (apocalypse hat on) all pools all combined all had the next gen rigs running in november(that in itself seems too OverTheTop of a scenario).. the total coin that is cheaper than $5800 is just 1800coins per day while network hashrate is below 90exa.

now if you imagine the price in november was todays $6500. selling all mined coins all at once on bitfinex(looking at volume) would only push the price down to 6200
so all pools would need to sell all coins of about 3 days in one go to dip to 5800(that in itself seems too OverTheTop of a scenario).

chances are not all pools will swap out rigs instantly so their costs would remain higher and not wanna sell so low
chances are pools wont want to sell all their coins anyway even if there is a bit of short term profit
changes are hashrates would be higher. so the costs vs profit would too be less appealing to want to tank the price
chances are if a sell off did occur. many buyers would celebrate a discount and a buying frenzy would occur fighting off the sell off to keep prices up.

so relax its not a guaranteed dump in november. but do expect some movement in hashpower and prices is all im saying

Base on technical analysis l made recently  bitcoin will NEVER  break below the $6000. price action movement in most cases reoccur from historically data .you will remember at 2017 at this time of the month bitcoin was trading between 6k to 8k .the only thing that might want to break 6k below is when whales are ready to buy the Dip ,they will bring FOMO to the market and this will only occur in the month of October but i doubt .

i think this year if SEC rejected again.

It's not going to tank below 6000, but I don't see it going much higher either. Then there'll be inflation over time, and the value of that future 6000 may not be as much as today's 6000.  If, at that future time, BTC still stays range bound at 6000, then in real terms it's real value would've dipped below 6000 in that future scenario.

no i don't see such triangle anymore. there were one a couple of months ago that people were excited about thinking it will drop below but it has been a flat line more or less ever since. not to mention that so far in this 9+ years TA never worked on bitcoin like you think it works!

there was no bullish run :D
the thing is the fluctuations created by day trading whales which makes price go above $7k then come back to $6kish and rise and repeat is not real trend and it certainly is not "bullish runs".

there you go: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

No one can know that he can only guess. Because everything can change in the world at any time and BTC can gain value depending on all these values and may also lose value

How soon is soon?

The truth remains that predictions around the price of bitcoin have always beaten everyone hallow till date. It hasn't ever been predicted right and I am not perturbed with what anyone says. Yes, price may be trading low now but a break up trend could still occur especially as everyone awaits the outcome of the ETF this September.

For now the bitcoin is good and it is really amazing that we should make a good strategy for investment in crypto
and holding now is providing you a better alternative for losing money while people are scared of it when the bad news related to market comes and different rumors created but for now bitcoin price will never breakdown $6000.

Bitcoin is a highly promising platform so it will reach 6k again it will going to moon. So I don't think it will be possible in future because most of the investors are investing this platform and slowly Bitcoin adoption is increasing in the market. If you think it will be going to below 6k USD you should said one valid reason. I hope Bitcoin is a most recommended cryptocurrency in the market so this reach 10k USD soon.

I am not a skilled trader, I will not analyze too much data, but I hope that the price of Bitcoin will not be less than $6,000, this is my hope!

Bitcoin doesn't need an ETF. If more rejections by the SEC come, then who cares. Bitcoin will always recover, and every weak hand who let go of their coins will regret it. But what can we do. Weak hands buy high and sell low as a default. Hahaha.

OP, no one knows. But if it does, buy the dip! 8)

Voted for never on the poll. I don't expect Bitcoin to go below $6,000 again and if it happens Bitcoin would go back up anyway because it's always short-mid term losses. Few months back Bitcoin hit below $6k and it didn't last that long.

You might've misread the title.

the correct answer is even if by some chance bitcoin price did go below $6000 you wouldn't be able to know it now because based on things that you can see and know and analyze right now the conclusion you can make is that it is not going to happen.
even the charts show the accumulation phase going on instead of anything else. and bitcoin's unique unpredictability makes it so.

The thing with markets is that in case they test the same lower support levels over and over again, they eventually break. It doesn't autmatically mean it will happen to Bitcoin, but with how there is very little support to keep the price above the $7000 level, we shouldn't discard it. The bias definitely hints towards more bearish price action rather than bullish price action, but there might be some bullish action coming up very soon.

Realistic possibility right now is to have seasonality kick in somewhere next month to lift the price.

Past Q4 seasonality increases that started in October;

2014 $300 > $450 = 50% increase.
2015 $230 > $500 = 115% increase.
2016 $600 > $1100 = 80% increase.
2017 $4500 > $19,500 = 330% increase.

2016: >$300
2017: >$900
2018: >$5800
thats a bull run

the movements in between are just cubs and calves playing (small bears and small bulls)

I really doubt it will happen, and even if that really happens this should take a very short time.Just because even Bitcoin mining costs now more higher than before and in the current period it is about 5800$ and this is determined that this support is much stronger than others think.

There could be a possibility of seeing that happen, no doubt and judging from the way things have been thus far, we will see clearly that the upper line of the descending triangle has been acting as a very strong resistance. Generally, descending triangles have always been a bearish signal for a market, but that does not mean they cannot be invalidated if the market peradventure, tend to break out to the upper part and may be go test some higher resistance. We cannot say when anything we happen, but however and whenever it happens, we will definitely witness it.

It is really hard to say and nothing can be guaranteed yet, looking at the way things have been so far. Secondly, depending on how you want to see it, the market is in a two different sentiment, and then, we can see clearly there could be a possibility of a falling wedge which may be bullish or a descending triangle, however you want to plot your chart. Although, we have seen several attempt to break the $6k support, but that does not mean we would not see a clear signal where we are headed to next when it comes. Let's see how things would be like anyway in the long run.

I think never. That below $6k levels are long gone. Even if it goes below that it will be instant and not stay there for even 24 hours at all.

I think we are solid and fine for this level and from now on we will keep seeing the $6.2k and $7.7k levels and stay in between that for a long time until the price goes berzerk once again and goes crazy high, don't know how high but it will go really high enough to call December not that big. So for now I do not see bitcoin to break $6k levels at all, it is a psychological price level where miners do not allow you to sell, they buy as many as they can afford when the price goes below that to keep it higher.

I think, It never may see under 6K level again. Because 6200-6300$ has a natural support anymore.

The market is completely speculative and the price is controlled by large holders. I think that crypto-millionaires will not allow the price to fall below 6000 dollars.

Miners buying to support the price? Highly unlikely. I'm even of believe that they aren't really that worried about the price to drop because that forces less profitable miners to turn off their machines.

In that case it means the difficulty goes down which makes mining slightly more profitable for those who continue mining, and that slightly better profitability is enough to counter lower exchange rates.

I think it's more the overall trend and support levels that traders respect. The market has been taken over by bots and whatnot operating within a safe range they aren't willing to break.

A year chart basis showing the market is still in a bull run, but I don’t see the reason why people are panicking with the current price of bitcoin. Well, i just hope that we don’t break the support level again because its the last quarter now and we have to move forward.

Current support is still strong enough so that there is confidence that the market will not fall too deeply, this is the point where manipulation is always the last stop, which is clear that people are still too afraid to be in this market, having experienced trapping the pump several times, that's enough normal if they panic, it might take a long time to get back to their beliefs.

regarding miners, people are usually looking for some sort of reason to speculate about the price and how it is going to change. in this case they are using mining, difficulty and cost as a reason for justifying the bottom at $6k and reason why it won't go any lower than that.
right or wrong of it rarely matters as it creates market incentive to react in certain way. for example the Mt Gox case was completely FUD since they weren't even selling on the market and their sell-off has been going on long before it became public or even drop started. but enough people believed it is the cause that THEY sold and caused the drop. in comparison enough people believe miners won't let the price go down that THEY will buy bitcoin and won't let it go down!
of course that is not always the only reason. there are a lot of reasons for every rise and fall.

I agree. Even though $6k has been upheld as support for the majority of this time that we've spent in the bear market, it's hard to say for sure that it's going to continue to be that way in the medium term future.

For me I'm looking at a potential breach of the $6k support by the end of the year. It's not guaranteed, but if it was to happen, it would be in the next few months.

You really can't be more specific than that. All we know at the moment is that prices are very near bottoming and recovery is probably going to go underway some time mid to late last year given the last bear market's trends.

Congratulations to the 1 person that voted on November for the month that Bitcoin dropped below $6000. I personally thought it would happen in October so I was a little off.