Bitcoin Forum

Chinese miners disconnected from electricity!
Bitcoin  5570 $
How do you think our giant will recover from such a situation ?

I hope that yes because it is very much like the collapse of Bitcoin

Interesting.

A couple of links I found on that topic:
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/11/13/chinese-bitcoin-mining-centers-fear-electricity-cuts-as-compliance-issues-loom/
https://tech2.org/russia/the-chinese-miners-turned-off-the-electricity-bitcoin-hashreit-decreased/

In theory, this could be a very positive development for Bitcoin. A bit of hashrate diversification would reduce centralization risks and mitigate the chance of an 51% attack or selfish mining.

Maybe, if difficulty lowers a little bit, it's finally time for solar/wind powered mining?

(Some people say that a hashrate drop could even help to find a floor to the price, because as block times become longer there are less rewards paid per day, and thus less supply on the markets. But I have some doubts about that (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5069448.0).)

Bitcoin falling to $5500 is still not new to Bitcoin users. Thus it is still a large amount of price it has eventhough it drops for about 20% in just a day. I don't know how it would recover from this drop but I am certain that there is a way to be back to higher price. It's just a matter of time to realize it.

its going to continue to lose support no one except bitcoin miners and bitcoin holders have an interest supporting bitcoin.

this forum lost last month 24% users coinmarket cap loses every month 10 million users. market decentralises away from bitcoin.

its still a surprise since the us dollar is losing rappidly support and value as well.

Do you have any idea the cost of a solar and wind turbine system is just to support say 10K Watts of power supplies is?  Do you know how much land/roof area you need to support 10kw worth of panels? False economy!

At least I know some approximate numbers ;)

In Germany, for example, there are a few solar parks generating electricity for about 4 cents per kilowatt/hour (most are generating at 6-8 cent, however). We're talking about a country with a relatively cloudy climate. In Mexico and Chile, solar power plants are being built with the operators guaranteeing prices of ~2 cent per kilowatt-hour. They're expected to get connected to the grid in the early 2020s (I think it was 2021).

So no, massive solar mining is not as far away as you may think.

I didn't think a significant hashrate drop could affect the market this much. I always thought it'd be a non-issue because miners have already begun working on their operations distribution. Either way, I very much doubt this will have a lasting effect -- it's very much a short-term problem.

And before anti-China sentiments come in, the crackdown was apparently targeted towards miners that were using state-sponsored electricity. This is a logical move.

According to current price of BTC, user such as newbies as well as past one who are involved in mining could get major impact on their ROI. And as per my thinking major impact of BTC price fail will disturb miners first then traders, because miner sell their BTC on exchanger by trading against fiat. But cut off of BTC mining maintenance could take miner towards loss not profit. So miner will shift towards other PoW coins.

Many user are in trouble by investing BTC.

Bitcoin goes down and this is a good opportunity to have but has all the altcoins. At present all coins have a low value for and affect all altcoins.
So this bitcoin price affects all crypto prices.

bitcoin price taken a hit from China pull plug. seems the drought is longer than ever.

This gets me to the idea that maybe some of that dump was made by the mining companies in order to get out fiat and pay the overdue taxes and penalties...
And since they had to sell anyway, a bit of dump + re-buy can make part of their loses get supported by the traders.

I am sick and tired of hearing about China, I think bitcoin will do way better when we get rid of it completely.

are you sure?
checking the hashrate chart I do not see any new change that indicates a drop worthy of discussion here. there still is the same fluctuations of hashrate which is near the same medium hashrate around 50 EHS. these ups and downs don't mean anything or indicate miner shutting down ... you can see the chart below:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m

It seems logical that hashrate will fall if price of bitcoin is as well. Profitability and price goes hand in hand.
 

I think it's a temporary phenomenon. Does anyone know why the power supply to China's miners was cut off ?

With less bitcoin being mined you would think the price of bitcoin would rise due to a decrease in supply. Perhaps it will take a few days or weeks until we see the effects of this

first there has to be at least a couple of days from the actual drop before the miners decide to change their mind and shut down their miners so that hashrate drops. and price drop is not even 24 hours yet. it is about 12 hours if I am not mistaken that price dropped!

not to mention that if you look at the hashrate chart you can clearly see that there actually was a rise in the past 24 hours!!!

I think that falling prices and a ban on the production connected among themselves but I also believe that a good fall was to occur before the inflammation of growth.

pools moving to next gen asics.
which are more efficient so dont need as many.
costs to run them are cheaper so able to sell coin rewards for less.

also
some traders were VC and had a 12 month contract so buying in november 2017 meant cant sell until november 2018

both contributed to this event.
its that simple

seems dulin.. just took the hashrate ATH and then the hashrate ATL for the last couple weeks (facepalm)
but going by the average
50-> 45  as there was a bit of a drop, but thats easily explained by new next gen asics. being cough quality assurance checked cough (run and earning coin) .. before delivery in late december

Ohh so this is the reason why I lost a small fortune  >:(? This is good news maybe to other miners in some parts of the world. It should not be mainly monopolized by chinese entities. Should spread out for the true decentralization.

You act like you know it all, if so, why didn't you short the market prior to all this? It's very easy talking after an event, because that's when the so called "experts" of Bitcointalk pop up ready to let the world know what happened. Why can't people not just admit that they don't know what happened, is it that difficult?

---

There is always volatility in the hashrate due to all sorts of variables, and that's normal. Litecoin for example bounces up and down hard, which makes Bitcoin's fluctuations look like way less of a thing. Litecoin has been bouncing between 200-300TH consistently in the last months. Be happy that you aren't a miner, we can chill out and buy our coins directly from the market.

The real loser in terms of hashrate is BCash, they went from 6000PH to 4000PH, and that while the fighting sides need all the hashrate they can obtain to win their battle.

Makes sense! When the production cost goes down, factories are able to sell the goods for cheaper in the market. Same thing is happening in bitcoin, is that what you suggest! However, what way out do you see from this current situation? Do you think the price will go up once the hashrate increases?

In my opinion, Bitcoin will be very difficult to recover in the short term when the percentage drop is too high. The decline continues to occur and i think Bitcoin will be able to cost $ 5,000.

Can someone explain why there's a correlation between block times and the hash rate? It just seems like other miners in the game could fill in for those who leave, mine their blocks and get their rewards..

   Hey dulinivanrus! Craig Wright’s affiliated pools managed to gain about 53% of BCH’s hash, with their share then falling presumably because they sent it back to BTC. Wright said: “When we move our hash off BTC into BCH (oh I forgot to say that we are there too) the BTC mining hash drops and suddenly BTC mining is MORE profitable. Stay on BCH as we will and lose big time… Think of this as a short term gift to mining BTC.”   ;)

if you start consuming double the energy you usually do, and almost everyone doing the same - any authority will fall short of supply of electricity and they will impose such rues with panned blackouts as it takes big money and time to setup a power-plant. I strongly suggest miners to seek for renewable energy like solar.

it might a good news. at least 20% of the hashrate will be distributed to other part of the world, reducing China domination.

BS title, BS topic.

The difficulty is going down by 6.5%, there is no 20% drop.
Even the average for the last 504 blocks is at less than 8%, so nowhere near 20%.



It makes 0 sense.
If you can make your products cheaper, do you plan on selling less?
If new and more efficient miners are coming online why is the hashrate dropping?
You were mining at 80j/Th now you're down at 57j/Th, why would you mine less?

Oh, we can make a cheaper S-Klasse by 20%. Let's sell only half of what we did last year to drive car sales down! /s off


Mining gear can't be bought at Walmart and you can't simply buy twenty S9 and plug them like USB sticks in your bedroom.
If a mining facility with 3-5% of the hashrate is closing down there is simply no way to replace that hashrate immediately.

Now, after a difficult adjustment, if miners leave, it will take more and more for blocks to be found till the next adjustment when the difficulty will go down so that the remaining miners have a chance to mine a block at 10 mins.
The next adjustment is somewhere tomorrow night (European time) so at least for a while, after it, we will keep the average 10 min per block.

Just think of it like hiring 10 guys to build your house in 30 days and after 10 days half of them leave. Of course, the progress will slow down, just like block time is doing at the moment.

It's now up to 58%...

https://cash.coin.dance/blocks/todayabc

I don't really understand what the point of this subversion is... Just some spoiled children threatening to take their toys and go home if they don't get their way? Why do they need bigger blocks? Their biggest block in the last 10 was a whopping 200 KB.

Height   Miner   Size (kB)
556752   Coingeek   22.69
556751   SVPool   155.88
556750   Coingeek   137.05
556749   Coingeek   100.28
556748   Coingeek   85.03
556747   Coingeek   97.18
556746   Coingeek   144.74
556745   SVPool   85.79
556744   SVPool   11.70
556743   BMG Pool   200.04

https://cash.coin.dance/blocks

Not to mention it would be a perfect time to pull a 51% attack on the BCH network, if one were so inclined...

i dont know it all. i just know common sense. its obviously unrelated to some social drama of some other coin so mentioning another coin is just comedy drama

as for the reasons of this actual temporary price drama event. well its obvious. they have been talking about if for like 3 month. even i mentioned it ages ago that to avert such a decline in price due to profitable mining that the hashrate needs to be way above 60exa.
its just maths and logic. nothing special. no crystal balls needed

but still funny seeing the people finger point at altcoins as the reason

because if you push it too much. EG turn off a 14thash and turn on a 28thash.. you instantly turn a 50exahash network into a 100exahash and simply shoot self in foot by making difficulty jump in the next round

instead what you do is realise you can:
firstly stay at 50exahash by using half as many new asics
also by using the boost take off a few other rigs..

but also able to then still solve blocks within the 10 minutes(while keeping difficulty from jumping). but with less costs needed overall
its the math difference between hashes per block and hashes per second that confuse people

..
as for the selling coins..
if before you were only breaking even with a slim 1-5% profit. you wont wont to sell. but if you are now making more profit then yea you would sell.
but like i said its not just ASICS its also VC contract/tranches that had a 12 month contract from last november.

Lols....

So rather than
- increase instantly the hashrate while the others can't compete and solve blocks twice as fast and drive the profits of others down thus crippling their business
- you do B, leave your miners to rust

Franky1, mining is not your field, even a Pikachu would see this from 100 miles away


Do you have a comic book from which you pull this kind of stuff or what?
What kind of magic can you use to keep the time block at 10 minutes with less hashing power?

And anyhow...
The difficulty is dropping tommorow!!!
This means less hashing is being done, it means fewer miners are active! It means solving 6% less blocks a day, dwindling overall revenue for all miners by 6% each day.

1.other pools dont have access to the new asics until last week of december. so those that do have the new asics for cough quality assurance purposes are making profit while other pools are losing
EG other pools still have a break even at $5800.. so yea there is no need to spin up the hashrate to b competitive

2. by spinning up the hashrate they are just hurting themselves. much better to keep or drop it a little to make profit but not cause self harm
EG if you had a 100m race. and usually you can do it in 10 seconds.
you dont do it in 5 seconds. or run 200m in 10 seconds... because next time your expected to do that. instead you do it in 9.5 seconds but with less strides needed. thus less energy wasted by you. you stil get first place by beating others by 5% but without the stress, cost and without shooting self in the foot by making the next round difficult for yourself

3. when selling asics to others you can MAKE PROFIT. EG for every asic sold to others. the seller literally gets a free asic. thus reducing the costs thus increasing the profit even without having to mine.

4. while still making profit even at a lower hashrate. and by bringing the market price down. will b the competitive advantage without shooting themselves in the foot by increasing hashrate
EG
if you know other pools break even is a $6k+ and your break even is $5k. then selling at profit to $5.3 means you still profit. other pools lose and they drop off.. all again without needing to raise the hashrate

5. thinking the only way to compete is raising the hashrate is a narrow minded and foolish business plan that only ends up costing you more.

6. plus you dont leave your old miners to rust. you sell the old gen for $450 as 'second hand' thus put more funds in your pocket to go towards electric and production cost of next gen

Let's say bitmain related pools that have access to new gear had 50% of the hash rate.
Since the others continue their business as nothing happened, a drop of 6% would mean they have shut down 12% of their own capacity. Why?


Dropping the hashrate means only slower blocks, less reward per day, almost same cost for maintenance and employees and rent for buldings...not smart.



And if they are selling ASICs to others
- it contradicts point 1 of others not having access to new gear
- it makes no sense to new asics being bought but hashing decreasing


those are assumptions as nobody knows what's the profit margin for each ming business out there


Oh yeah, the whole world economy is a big fraud!!!
It makes sense to build less and have less share in any market!
I bet once they hear of this all the car companies in the world will stick to selling one car a year, cause less is better!!!


And the ones that bought the old gear are letting it to rust otherwise we would see the hashrate grwoing ..not dropping!!!!

Bottom line!
Hashrate is dropping, fewer blocks by day, less BTC earned by miners each day, something at around 180 000 S9 equivalent have been pulled out of the network in the last two weeks.

There is only one explanation for this and is the BCH war, which ...what do you know.....
BCH hash rate grew by 2.1 exahash in November, close to what btc is losing...

So simple, and yet you've had to make a mess of conspiracies, gear replacing, strategies, wonder blocks and so on...

I don't see that steep of a drop in mining power, but I do know where this drop and everything related to it came from. Hint: Satoshi (lol).

Anyway though, it's amazing and shocking to see how large of an impact and control these dudes have over two different networks. Two different entities of a different network wanting to get the lion's share of things and hurting other members of the jungle along the way is somewhat childish, but then again this is money and profit is on the line. Keep the drama up and we'll see what else are these guys willing to put at stake in order to measure who has the bigger guns.

no
EG imagine all asics swapped from S9 to T15
50 EXA =~3.5million S9 (3.5m @1.3kwh=4.55m kwh)
but only ~1.75million T15 (3.5m @1.6kwh=2.8m kwh)
so just maintaining hashrate saves alot of electric


also the thing about hashrate per block versus hashrate per second confuses people.
many site WRONGLY treat the block hashrate based on a 600second block math thus even if solved in 8 mins its treated as a 10min AVERAGE.

so if a pool can solve a block in 8 minutes because its hashrate is faster (asic boost) .. the math will show the block solved in x hash per 600 second average
where as reality is the block is solved in 8 minutes for the same hash. which means in reality x hash in 480seconds.
though reported as X in 600 seconds

in simple terms
old asic pools of 3.5mill asics take 50exahash to make a block in 10 minutes
new asic pools of 1.75mill asics take 50exahash to make a block in 8 minutes but displayed as 50exa (average of 10 minutes)

which is why to be a little more accurate. they then knock down their asics to be a more depiction to the bad math websites
by having 20% less asics again to be 10 min.. or hint hint. bring it down by only 15% to be 9min:30seconds so they on average are winning the competition. but are even more efficient using only 1.49m asics to atleast appear to be ontime.. but have 5% less hashrate. while having under half the asic count. and cheaper electric total bill

..
maybe worth instead of just hitting reply. hit the open excel button and do some math. it may surprise you when you add it all up yourself.
making more profit while not pushing hashrate up is possible.

...
like i said if break old even was above $6k and now you, using new asics can break even for less. theres no need to jump hashrate to 100exa. because your also hurting yourself later by jumping the hashrate

far easier to sell old gear (use those proceeds to pay electric)
far easier to sell new gear (sell one for double cost = 'give one, keep one' so that way no hardware cost to you)

you then also mine with both asics for "quality assurance" for a month. thus you profit from running THEIR gear aswell as your own. while they are stuck using old asics.. while they wait until their late december delivery of their new asic

then you sell the coin rewards knowing your making profit(even below $6k).
knowing as soon as the market price goes below $6k . your competitor is losing. while you still profit even without having to raise the hashrate.

nah the hashrate drop of ~5exa .. but only 1exa gain on cash are not correlating numbers..it dont show where the other 4exa went

..
try not to just read some twitter account or reddit post of some social drama/meme. its best to use math and logic

also the price movements are not just next gen related but also VC 12month tranches contract expiry. (they finally are allowed to sell their hoards from their november 2017 buyups(12 month rise and fall is no coincidence))

..
but hey most will just fall for the social finger point drama of a dude that has not himself coded anything. but is just the PR face of an altcoin.

the only good thing i can say about blockstream is that adam back has stopped his wright-esq PR campaign of saying he (A.B) invented bitcoin due to "hashcash" algo.. i guess adam back seen the PR of wright and so adam back realised how stupid it looks to be a social PR guy but not contribute code to actually affect stuff

i do find it strange that when things happen to BTC. finger get pointed at things totally unrelated to btc.

"omg i lost profit".. social drama="it was a toothfairy who caused it because they are known to steal teeth" (facepalm)

Yes I also saw a decline in Bitcoin today, the giant crypto (Bitcoin)dropped to $ 5300, a decrease of around 20% would certainly cause panic for Bitcoin holders and altcoins, because usually if Bitcoin decreases, altcoin will follow suit. I don't know when this situation will improve, which is definitely just patience that is my main capital in dealing with this situation.

fixed that for you... its a better, healthier and less stressful mindset to have
(glass half full.. not half drunken)

Instead of posting a wall of text that is basically the same regurgitated stuff with 0 real-life correlation you could simply open two graphs with the BTC and BCH hashrate and compare them
You are going to be amazed by what you see!!

Oh, I'm not telling you what it is since you're a fan of doing your own research.



Please don't insult people's intelligence around here anymore just because you're a sore loser!

This statement is 100% wrong. as the hashrate drops, difficulty drops along to maintain an average time of 10 mins per block. nothing will affect the fresh supply but the halving.

The market for Cryptocurrency is easy to evaporate, and only a small impact makes the market plummet. Maybe things will gradually recover in the coming days, or perhaps the market will continue to fall until the end of 2018.

FTFY   ;)

I would venture to suggest that all this is market manipulation. I'm not saying that the Chinese miners were not disconnected from the electricity, but I say that the manipulator used the negative news to push the market. If you look into this news in more detail, it becomes clear that nothing critical has happened, and after all the checks and additional agreements the miners will continue their work. But I doubt that cryptocurrency quotes will also actively play the fall after this news. All because the market perceives only negative in a given period of time.

If it really is falling it's to be expected. Miners were operating on the verge of profitability at 6k USD. Below that there's only losses and waiting for the market to adjust. We have 2015 repeating. BTW, did you see the news about Chinese teachers mining ETH for free at school? Some people are still mining in China, even if they can get caught and knowing  how law in China operates, probably flogged and sent to a labor camp for it.

The cost of mining varies tremendously around the world:

https://www.investopedia.com/news/how-much-does-it-cost-mine-bitcoin-around-world/

I don't understand why bitcoin _has_ to come back up in price if its not profitable for miners in parts of the world. Others who can mine cheaply will just step in to fill the void as competition removes itself.

No, I don't think it has something to do with the price drop yesterday. I guess the selloff is more related to 1) chart signals which were suggesting a move (up or down) and 2) BCH folks selling Bitcoins to finance their own hashrate war, most likely with the "secondary goal" to trigger stop loss orders and try again to "steal" some value from BTC.

Ah, and the 20% are most likely the difference between (https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/hash-rate) the local maximum at 10-29 (58 Eh/s) and the minimum a couple of days ago (42 Eh/s).

Yep ... I guess the supporters of the "mining cost as price floor" over-estimate the effect of 2-4 weeks of slighltly increased block intervals on the supply on the markets - or they have another strange reason (e.g. miners "backing" the price?) I was trying to know in my other thread. But so far everyone agrees with me that the "price floor" effect doesn't exist ... then where does the theory come from?

I guest this has nothing to do with the bitcoin cash hord forks cause this current crises in the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is so diverstating and it was an unexpected event because we where expecting another bull run due to the time of the year. But we shall keep hoping for the market to recover.

There is one thing I really don't understand:

How do you guys posting in this thread, take everything into account other than the main reason behind this? It is about bch civil war, what else it could be? They are recruiting hashpower, isn't that simple?

By the way, Faketoshi is loosing the war and it is good news, the crazy con man should have been kicked out much sooner.

yeah what happen with this situation? why bitcoin value is dropping more than 15%? is any exhcanger has hacked? or something happen bitcoin?

That explains today's losses, which are around 6%, if I remember right. But it doesn't explain the 20-30% decrease (depending on if you use averages or not) since the end of October. I guess this is more than a regular deviation.

The three reasons mentioned in this thread (BCH, Chinese regulation tightening and reduced mining profit), in my opinion, all are contributing to the hashrate/difficulty loss.

not at all, its take more than that for bitcoin to collapse.

they are not recuiting hashpower
the same time btc dropped 5exa.. bch only gained 1exa.(no correlation)
the extra 1exa of bch can be caused by them turning on asic boost for a 20% boost
the extra 1 exa could be them swapping 285.7k S9's for 142.85k T15's and using boost

but if you look at the stats and math it all out
its much easier to see
btc swapping rigs from old to new. = half as many rigs needed and still able to mine effectively with less miners, with or without boost can change how many rigs are needed to still win blocks with less rigs and although it appears as a 5exa drop. is not actually a 5exa drop.

because stats sites measure hash used per block divided by fixed 600 second measure...
not measure hash used per block divided by time of block (thus stats sites give wrong readings)

Can China still mine Bitcoin?
Didn't China forbid everything illegal regarding bitcoin, mining and crypto?
I think the cause of the decline is another factor

Nobody expected such a drop. It's very easy talking after this happened. Now "experts" are trying to find a reason or excuse what happened. But none of them talk about the truth. It is very difficult to recover in the short term. We may not a price around 6 k.

Awareness has spread to the subject of mining energy and represented in
New projects based on alternative energy in mining and other specifically in Europe
I believe that this represents support for encryption and mining in particular
Of these projects
Great Project WPP ENERJY
As well as SECYRIX.

They are absolutely recruiting hash power. From CSW's twitter:

To all BTC miners...

If you switch to mine BCH, we may need to fund this with BTC, if we do, we sell for USD and, well... we think BTC market has no room... it tanks.

Think about it. We will sell A Lot!

Consider that....
And, have a nice day

https://twitter.com/ProfFaustus/status/1062751765601361923

again and again, every year, the Chinese government acts on bitcoin, this is not a new problem for the crypto market. the Chinese government is very unstable in making decisions, or indeed they only focus policies that are beneficial for their groups. when viewed in plain view, in fact the crypto and bitcoin markets are able to survive stably if there are no external interventions coming from the government.