Bitcoin hashrate fell by 20%

[franky1]

Bitcoin hashrate fell by 20%

are you sure?
checking the hashrate chart I do not see any new change that indicates a drop worthy of discussion here. there still is the same fluctuations of hashrate which is near the same medium hashrate around 50 EHS. these ups and downs don't mean anything or indicate miner shutting down ... you can see the chart below:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m

seems dulin.. just took the hashrate ATH and then the hashrate ATL for the last couple weeks (facepalm)
but going by the average
50-> 45  as there was a bit of a drop, but thats easily explained by new next gen asics. being cough quality assurance checked cough (run and earning coin) .. before delivery in late december

[minairia3]

Interesting.

A couple of links I found on that topic:
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/11/13/chinese-bitcoin-mining-centers-fear-electricity-cuts-as-compliance-issues-loom/
https://tech2.org/russia/the-chinese-miners-turned-off-the-electricity-bitcoin-hashreit-decreased/

In theory, this could be a very positive development for Bitcoin. A bit of hashrate diversification would reduce centralization risks and mitigate the chance of an 51% attack or selfish mining.

Maybe, if difficulty lowers a little bit, it's finally time for solar/wind powered mining?

(Some people say that a hashrate drop could even help to find a floor to the price, because as block times become longer there are less rewards paid per day, and thus less supply on the markets. But I have some doubts about that.)

Ohh so this is the reason why I lost a small fortune  ? This is good news maybe to other miners in some parts of the world. It should not be mainly monopolized by chinese entities. Should spread out for the true decentralization.

[1Referee]

pools moving to next gen asics.
which are more efficient so dont need as many.
costs to run them are cheaper so able to sell coin rewards for less.

also
some traders were VC and had a 12 month contract so buying in november 2017 meant cant sell until november 2018

both contributed to this event.
its that simple

You act like you know it all, if so, why didn't you short the market prior to all this? It's very easy talking after an event, because that's when the so called "experts" of Bitcointalk pop up ready to let the world know what happened. Why can't people not just admit that they don't know what happened, is it that difficult?

---

There is always volatility in the hashrate due to all sorts of variables, and that's normal. Litecoin for example bounces up and down hard, which makes Bitcoin's fluctuations look like way less of a thing. Litecoin has been bouncing between 200-300TH consistently in the last months. Be happy that you aren't a miner, we can chill out and buy our coins directly from the market.

The real loser in terms of hashrate is BCash, they went from 6000PH to 4000PH, and that while the fighting sides need all the hashrate they can obtain to win their battle.

[avikz]

pools moving to next gen asics.
which are more efficient so dont need as many.
costs to run them are cheaper so able to sell coin rewards for less.

also
some traders were VC and had a 12 month contract so buying in november 2017 meant cant sell until november 2018

both contributed to this event.
its that simple

Makes sense! When the production cost goes down, factories are able to sell the goods for cheaper in the market. Same thing is happening in bitcoin, is that what you suggest! However, what way out do you see from this current situation? Do you think the price will go up once the hashrate increases?

[dang thi bich thuy]

In my opinion, Bitcoin will be very difficult to recover in the short term when the percentage drop is too high. The decline continues to occur and i think Bitcoin will be able to cost $ 5,000.

[CoinClarity]

(Some people say that a hashrate drop could even help to find a floor to the price, because as block times become longer there are less rewards paid per day, and thus less supply on the markets. But I have some doubts about that.)

Can someone explain why there's a correlation between block times and the hash rate? It just seems like other miners in the game could fill in for those who leave, mine their blocks and get their rewards..

[Kaznachej123]

Chinese miners disconnected from electricity!
Bitcoin  5570 $
How do you think our giant will recover from such a situation ?

   Hey dulinivanrus! Craig Wright’s affiliated pools managed to gain about 53% of BCH’s hash, with their share then falling presumably because they sent it back to BTC. Wright said: “When we move our hash off BTC into BCH (oh I forgot to say that we are there too) the BTC mining hash drops and suddenly BTC mining is MORE profitable. Stay on BCH as we will and lose big time… Think of this as a short term gift to mining BTC.”   

[bitfocus]

if you start consuming double the energy you usually do, and almost everyone doing the same - any authority will fall short of supply of electricity and they will impose such rues with panned blackouts as it takes big money and time to setup a power-plant. I strongly suggest miners to seek for renewable energy like solar.

[sinkfish]

it might a good news. at least 20% of the hashrate will be distributed to other part of the world, reducing China domination.

[stompix]

BS title, BS topic.

The difficulty is going down by 6.5%, there is no 20% drop.
Even the average for the last 504 blocks is at less than 8%, so nowhere near 20%.

pools moving to next gen asics.
which are more efficient so dont need as many.
costs to run them are cheaper so able to sell coin rewards for less.

also
some traders were VC and had a 12 month contract so buying in november 2017 meant cant sell until november 2018

both contributed to this event.
its that simple

Makes sense! When the production cost goes down, factories are able to sell the goods for cheaper in the market. Same thing is happening in bitcoin, is that what you suggest! However, what way out do you see from this current situation? Do you think the price will go up once the hashrate increases?

It makes 0 sense.
If you can make your products cheaper, do you plan on selling less?
If new and more efficient miners are coming online why is the hashrate dropping?
You were mining at 80j/Th now you're down at 57j/Th, why would you mine less?

Oh, we can make a cheaper S-Klasse by 20%. Let's sell only half of what we did last year to drive car sales down! /s off

Can someone explain why there's a correlation between block times and the hash rate? It just seems like other miners in the game could fill in for those who leave, mine their blocks and get their rewards..

Mining gear can't be bought at Walmart and you can't simply buy twenty S9 and plug them like USB sticks in your bedroom.
If a mining facility with 3-5% of the hashrate is closing down there is simply no way to replace that hashrate immediately.

Now, after a difficult adjustment, if miners leave, it will take more and more for blocks to be found till the next adjustment when the difficulty will go down so that the remaining miners have a chance to mine a block at 10 mins.
The next adjustment is somewhere tomorrow night (European time) so at least for a while, after it, we will keep the average 10 min per block.

Just think of it like hiring 10 guys to build your house in 30 days and after 10 days half of them leave. Of course, the progress will slow down, just like block time is doing at the moment.

[presduterte]

Chinese miners disconnected from electricity!
Bitcoin  5570 $
How do you think our giant will recover from such a situation ?

   Hey dulinivanrus! Craig Wright’s affiliated pools managed to gain about 53% of BCH’s hash, with their share then falling presumably because they sent it back to BTC. Wright said: “When we move our hash off BTC into BCH (oh I forgot to say that we are there too) the BTC mining hash drops and suddenly BTC mining is MORE profitable. Stay on BCH as we will and lose big time… Think of this as a short term gift to mining BTC.”  

It's now up to 58%...

https://cash.coin.dance/blocks/todayabc

I don't really understand what the point of this subversion is... Just some spoiled children threatening to take their toys and go home if they don't get their way? Why do they need bigger blocks? Their biggest block in the last 10 was a whopping 200 KB.

Height   Miner   Size (kB)
556752   Coingeek   22.69
556751   SVPool   155.88
556750   Coingeek   137.05
556749   Coingeek   100.28
556748   Coingeek   85.03
556747   Coingeek   97.18
556746   Coingeek   144.74
556745   SVPool   85.79
556744   SVPool   11.70
556743   BMG Pool   200.04

https://cash.coin.dance/blocks

Not to mention it would be a perfect time to pull a 51% attack on the BCH network, if one were so inclined...

[franky1]

You act like you know it all, if so, why didn't you short the market prior to all this? It's very easy talking after an event, because that's when the so called "experts" of Bitcointalk pop up ready to let the world know what happened. Why can't people not just admit that they don't know what happened, is it that difficult?

i dont know it all. i just know common sense. its obviously unrelated to some social drama of some other coin so mentioning another coin is just comedy drama

as for the reasons of this actual temporary price drama event. well its obvious. they have been talking about if for like 3 month. even i mentioned it ages ago that to avert such a decline in price due to profitable mining that the hashrate needs to be way above 60exa.
its just maths and logic. nothing special. no crystal balls needed

but still funny seeing the people finger point at altcoins as the reason

[franky1]

BS title, BS topic.

The difficulty is going down by 6.5%, there is no 20% drop.
Even the average for the last 504 blocks is at less than 8%, so nowhere near 20%.

pools moving to next gen asics.
which are more efficient so dont need as many.
costs to run them are cheaper so able to sell coin rewards for less.

also
some traders were VC and had a 12 month contract so buying in november 2017 meant cant sell until november 2018

both contributed to this event.
its that simple

Makes sense! When the production cost goes down, factories are able to sell the goods for cheaper in the market. Same thing is happening in bitcoin, is that what you suggest! However, what way out do you see from this current situation? Do you think the price will go up once the hashrate increases?

It makes 0 sense.
If you can make your products cheaper, do you plan on selling less?
If new and more efficient miners are coming online why is the hashrate dropping?
You were mining at 80j/Th now you're down at 57j/Th, why would you mine less?

because if you push it too much. EG turn off a 14thash and turn on a 28thash.. you instantly turn a 50exahash network into a 100exahash and simply shoot self in foot by making difficulty jump in the next round

instead what you do is realise you can:
firstly stay at 50exahash by using half as many new asics
also by using the boost take off a few other rigs..

but also able to then still solve blocks within the 10 minutes(while keeping difficulty from jumping). but with less costs needed overall
its the math difference between hashes per block and hashes per second that confuse people

..
as for the selling coins..
if before you were only breaking even with a slim 1-5% profit. you wont wont to sell. but if you are now making more profit then yea you would sell.
but like i said its not just ASICS its also VC contract/tranches that had a 12 month contract from last november.

[stompix]

because if you push it too much. EG turn off a 14thash and turn on a 28thash.. you instantly turn a 50exahash network into a 100exahash and simply shoot self in foot by making difficulty jump in the next round

instead what you do is realise you can:
firstly stay at 14thash per SECOND buy using half as many new asics
also by using the boost take off a few other rigs..

but then still solve blocks within the 10 minutes. but with less hashes needed overall
its the math difference between hashes per block and hashes per second that confuse people

Lols....

So rather than
- increase instantly the hashrate while the others can't compete and solve blocks twice as fast and drive the profits of others down thus crippling their business
- you do B, leave your miners to rust

Franky1, mining is not your field, even a Pikachu would see this from 100 miles away

but then still solve blocks within the 10 minutes. but with less hashes needed overall

Do you have a comic book from which you pull this kind of stuff or what?
What kind of magic can you use to keep the time block at 10 minutes with less hashing power?

And anyhow...
The difficulty is dropping tommorow!!!
This means less hashing is being done, it means fewer miners are active! It means solving 6% less blocks a day, dwindling overall revenue for all miners by 6% each day.

[franky1]

So rather than
- increase instantly the hashrate while the others can't compete and solve blocks twice as fast and drive the profits of others down thus crippling their business
- you do B, leave your miners to rust

1.other pools dont have access to the new asics until last week of december. so those that do have the new asics for cough quality assurance purposes are making profit while other pools are losing
EG other pools still have a break even at $5800.. so yea there is no need to spin up the hashrate to b competitive

2. by spinning up the hashrate they are just hurting themselves. much better to keep or drop it a little to make profit but not cause self harm
EG if you had a 100m race. and usually you can do it in 10 seconds.
you dont do it in 5 seconds. or run 200m in 10 seconds... because next time your expected to do that. instead you do it in 9.5 seconds but with less strides needed. thus less energy wasted by you. you stil get first place by beating others by 5% but without the stress, cost and without shooting self in the foot by making the next round difficult for yourself

3. when selling asics to others you can MAKE PROFIT. EG for every asic sold to others. the seller literally gets a free asic. thus reducing the costs thus increasing the profit even without having to mine.

4. while still making profit even at a lower hashrate. and by bringing the market price down. will b the competitive advantage without shooting themselves in the foot by increasing hashrate
EG
if you know other pools break even is a $6k+ and your break even is $5k. then selling at profit to $5.3 means you still profit. other pools lose and they drop off.. all again without needing to raise the hashrate

5. thinking the only way to compete is raising the hashrate is a narrow minded and foolish business plan that only ends up costing you more.

6. plus you dont leave your old miners to rust. you sell the old gen for $450 as 'second hand' thus put more funds in your pocket to go towards electric and production cost of next gen

[stompix]

1.other pools dont have access to the new asics until last week of december. so those that do have the new asics for cough quality assurance purposes are making profit while other pools are losing
EG other pools still have a break even at $5800.. so yea there is no need to spin up the hashrate to b competitive

Let's say bitmain related pools that have access to new gear had 50% of the hash rate.
Since the others continue their business as nothing happened, a drop of 6% would mean they have shut down 12% of their own capacity. Why?

2. by spinning up the hashrate they are just hurting themselves. much better to keep or drop it a little to make profit but not cause self harm

Dropping the hashrate means only slower blocks, less reward per day, almost same cost for maintenance and employees and rent for buldings...not smart.

3. when selling asics to others THEY MAKE PROFIT. EG for every asic sold to others. the seller literally gets a free asic. thus reducing the costs thus increasing the profit.

And if they are selling ASICs to others
- it contradicts point 1 of others not having access to new gear
- it makes no sense to new asics being bought but hashing decreasing

4. while still making profit even at a lower hashrate. and by bringing the market price down. will b the competitive advantage without shooting themselves in the foot by increasing hashrate

those are assumptions as nobody knows what's the profit margin for each ming business out there

5. thinking the only way to compete is raising the hashrate is a narrow minded and foolish business plan that only ends up costing you more.

Oh yeah, the whole world economy is a big fraud!!!
It makes sense to build less and have less share in any market!
I bet once they hear of this all the car companies in the world will stick to selling one car a year, cause less is better!!!

6. plus you dont leave your old miners to rust. you sell the old gen for $450 as 'second hand' thus put more funds in your pocket to go towards electric and production cost of next gen

And the ones that bought the old gear are letting it to rust otherwise we would see the hashrate grwoing ..not dropping!!!!

Bottom line!
Hashrate is dropping, fewer blocks by day, less BTC earned by miners each day, something at around 180 000 S9 equivalent have been pulled out of the network in the last two weeks.

There is only one explanation for this and is the BCH war, which ...what do you know.....
BCH hash rate grew by 2.1 exahash in November, close to what btc is losing...

So simple, and yet you've had to make a mess of conspiracies, gear replacing, strategies, wonder blocks and so on...

[dothebeats]

I don't see that steep of a drop in mining power, but I do know where this drop and everything related to it came from. Hint: Satoshi (lol).

Anyway though, it's amazing and shocking to see how large of an impact and control these dudes have over two different networks. Two different entities of a different network wanting to get the lion's share of things and hurting other members of the jungle along the way is somewhat childish, but then again this is money and profit is on the line. Keep the drama up and we'll see what else are these guys willing to put at stake in order to measure who has the bigger guns.

[franky1]

Let's say bitmain related pools that have access to new gear had 50% of the hash rate.
Since the others continue their business as nothing happened, a drop of 6% would mean they have shut down 12% of their own capacity. Why?

2. by spinning up the hashrate they are just hurting themselves. much better to keep or drop it a little to make profit but not cause self harm

Dropping the hashrate means only slower blocks, less reward per day, almost same cost for maintenance and employees and rent for buldings...not smart.

no
EG imagine all asics swapped from S9 to T15
50 EXA =~3.5million S9 (3.5m @1.3kwh=4.55m kwh)
but only ~1.75million T15 (3.5m @1.6kwh=2.8m kwh)
so just maintaining hashrate saves alot of electric


also the thing about hashrate per block versus hashrate per second confuses people.
many site WRONGLY treat the block hashrate based on a 600second block math thus even if solved in 8 mins its treated as a 10min AVERAGE.

so if a pool can solve a block in 8 minutes because its hashrate is faster (asic boost) .. the math will show the block solved in x hash per 600 second average
where as reality is the block is solved in 8 minutes for the same hash. which means in reality x hash in 480seconds.
though reported as X in 600 seconds

in simple terms
old asic pools of 3.5mill asics take 50exahash to make a block in 10 minutes
new asic pools of 1.75mill asics take 50exahash to make a block in 8 minutes but displayed as 50exa (average of 10 minutes)

which is why to be a little more accurate. they then knock down their asics to be a more depiction to the bad math websites
by having 20% less asics again to be 10 min.. or hint hint. bring it down by only 15% to be 9min:30seconds so they on average are winning the competition. but are even more efficient using only 1.49m asics to atleast appear to be ontime.. but have 5% less hashrate. while having under half the asic count. and cheaper electric total bill

..
maybe worth instead of just hitting reply. hit the open excel button and do some math. it may surprise you when you add it all up yourself.
making more profit while not pushing hashrate up is possible.

...
like i said if break old even was above $6k and now you, using new asics can break even for less. theres no need to jump hashrate to 100exa. because your also hurting yourself later by jumping the hashrate

far easier to sell old gear (use those proceeds to pay electric)
far easier to sell new gear (sell one for double cost = 'give one, keep one' so that way no hardware cost to you)

you then also mine with both asics for "quality assurance" for a month. thus you profit from running THEIR gear aswell as your own. while they are stuck using old asics.. while they wait until their late december delivery of their new asic

then you sell the coin rewards knowing your making profit(even below $6k).
knowing as soon as the market price goes below $6k . your competitor is losing. while you still profit even without having to raise the hashrate.

[franky1]

I don't see that steep of a drop in mining power, but I do know where this drop and everything related to it came from. Hint: Satoshi (lol).

nah the hashrate drop of ~5exa .. but only 1exa gain on cash are not correlating numbers..it dont show where the other 4exa went

..
try not to just read some twitter account or reddit post of some social drama/meme. its best to use math and logic

also the price movements are not just next gen related but also VC 12month tranches contract expiry. (they finally are allowed to sell their hoards from their november 2017 buyups(12 month rise and fall is no coincidence))

..
but hey most will just fall for the social finger point drama of a dude that has not himself coded anything. but is just the PR face of an altcoin.

the only good thing i can say about blockstream is that adam back has stopped his wright-esq PR campaign of saying he (A.B) invented bitcoin due to "hashcash" algo.. i guess adam back seen the PR of wright and so adam back realised how stupid it looks to be a social PR guy but not contribute code to actually affect stuff

i do find it strange that when things happen to BTC. finger get pointed at things totally unrelated to btc.

"omg i lost profit".. social drama="it was a toothfairy who caused it because they are known to steal teeth" (facepalm)

[antoarwadi]

Chinese miners disconnected from electricity!
Bitcoin  5570 $
How do you think our giant will recover from such a situation ?

Yes I also saw a decline in Bitcoin today, the giant crypto (Bitcoin)dropped to $ 5300, a decrease of around 20% would certainly cause panic for Bitcoin holders and altcoins, because usually if Bitcoin decreases, altcoin will follow suit. I don't know when this situation will improve, which is definitely just patience that is my main capital in dealing with this situation.