Bitcoin Forum

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

Past performance can't guarantee future results.

There are lots of expectations that didn't happened in 2018 which is based from the happenings in 2017. Same scenario might happen to what is your pointing out which is now as 2018 as based of reference.

I also don't see Chinese New Year event as big factor to triggered the price rise for a big percentage.

If this were for other tradable assets, there would be an answer near to the truth. Bitcoin has not yet been fully tamed and still very wild and this is why price prediction is really far away these days. On the other hand price is too low and I do not think owners will sell at this price. Therefore this year maybe the new year will have no impact on the price.  ???  

It's probably going to be another regular day. I don't expect anything to happen this year. This year will be the final test where hodlers of last resort are put to test and any remaining noobs that don't get the fundamentals of Bitcoin are still yet to capitulate. I can see a flash crash as low as $1300-ish for a final capitulation as worst case scenario.

Another probable scenario is going sideways for a long time, then price starts creeping up slowly, and this is how typically FOMO is formed, everyone that was waiting on the sidelines start getting nervous and a bullish chain reaction is created.

If Bitcoin-settled operations like Bakkt, Fidelity or ETF are approved and get tons of volume then we could go $100k overnight since some people seem to forget Bitcoin is still tiny and any institutional buy orders can skyrocket it.

when looking at the charts and price change then reporting it, you can not selectively choose what suits your needs and then report that alone!
what you just said here is outright wrong. price didn't drop before Chinese New Year. price has been dropping for over month already by the time the new year happened. in fact it started dropping in mid December of 2017 and continued until February 2018 where it reached the bottom. that is more than 2 months. but you are only selecting 1 week out of 9-10 weeks just to make your conclusion here.

there has been no pattern ever. not in 2018 and not in any other year before that and there will never be any.
price may or may not rise but whatever it does, it won't be because of Chinese new year.

Every year similar pattern of growth won't take place. Last year we were happy to experience such a miraculous growth which we never expected before the days of bitcoin moving forward. Every year people starts speculating about the bitcoin market with relation to the Chinese New Year. Now we're close to the days of Chinese New Year, let's wait a week or two to know what's happening with the market.

I would not count on it increasing the price.

Last year we were expecting the Chinese New Year to increase the price, it didn't.

Then we were waiting for Wall Street Bonuses to increase the price, it didn't.

Then we were waiting for the end of the tax year to increase the price, it actually increased it a little but went down shortly after.

Then it was the Consensus, which if anything price fell.

We are in the bear market and its hard to tell when we will hit the bottom. Even if Bakkt goes live in a month or 2, it doesn't mean the price will go up necessarily.

Good answer.

But OP, zoom out. It is really hard to deny the reality that Bitcoin's long term trajectory has been always going up. The market deals with probabilities, not the absolutes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dvbys5oWoAEFhCE?format=jpg&name=large

I'm sorry to burst the bubble for you, but there's no assurance that it will happen or repeat the same pattern this year. Remember last year was different, around that time people still cling to hope that Bitcoin won't go down that hard. However, we have seen that it's not the caseso I doubt that we will see some positive effect before and after the Chinese New Year. If the price spike then what? Do you think it will be sustainable as well?

If someone will hype the chinese market then definitely the rise might be possible but lets also look at its negative side, Chinese new year might not be an accumulation period but also might be a selling season. Since its not different from other occasions that's why we need to be careful when buying we definitely no knowledge of what will gonna happen next.

I don't believe so.Last year,there were other factors that were driving the bitcoin price,not the Chinese new year.Let's hope that bitcoin will become legal again in China.This won't happen soon,but the chinese can't create a successful government backed coin.

I have stop believing in all of this. Although, I am not underplaying the amount of influence national holidays could have on the price of bitcoin but there is need to just shift attention away from that and focus on objective reasons and point that could influence the price of crypto in our preferred way. Since last year when the price has been going down, there have been series of event happening in several countries all over the world and even those who are not as harsh against bitcoin like China but nothing happened rather than increase in price, the opposite is what is being witnessed.

I do not have any idea about this coming Chinese new year will be good in the price of bitcoin. It seems that many people say that after Chinese new year the price of bitcoin will gonna rise up but I think we do not know what will happen.

only if you can convince millions of people who are trading bitcoin that Chinese new year is affecting the market! and to do that you need to convince then to not look at the charts and instead take your word for it blindly.
otherwise we are on the same path as before. price is being kept down for accumulation and profit making and it won't go up unless whale accumulators are satisfied or enough time passes that the market rallies against them.

The last quarter of 2018 already made it clear that historical patterns can't be a good basis for what will happen anymore. It's up for anyone's speculation on what'll happen come chinese newyear but the occassion itself for me won't be a catalyst for any major movement.

I think it's not that easy, big holidays will not make market recover quickly, because there is no logical reason for this.

why should they buy a coin at that time?
what about when after the Chinese new year, the market is in a declining condition ? if we fight the market flow it is also not a good thing

I'm more inclined to think that even when we have all of the above on board, it will take years to actually jump over the $100,000 level. It will take a while before the OTC market has been emptied, which is where these players get their coins.

On the other hand, it might also result in more spot supply if these coins end up being dumped on the spot market, so if the spot demand isn't all that high, it's quite likely that we'll see it backfire at one point. Currently we can say the same about the market. There has been an increase in OTC demand, but decline in spot demand, and I'm certain that OTC coins have been dumped on the way down.

it ok.  im not dreaming or hope  about BTC will rise and make new All time high in this year anymore.

but someone in my county say BTC will go down to new bottom in next month maybe go to 2.5K i don't know it FUD or not.

I wouldn't bank on it heavily though, as there aren't any clear signs of the market improving, and past perfomances doesn't necessarily mean that it will happen again in the future. People have been trying to relate holidays and big events to price movements and always end up in disappointments. Well there are cases in which such events brought insane price action, but from the looks of the market (with low volumes on exchanges very recently), I don't think something significant and positive will happen after the Chinese New Year.

I don't think the OTC market can sustain the amount of volume that these big players would need, there's not enough liquidity, at some point it has to happen.

By 2022 I expect $100k easy. We'll have the ETF, Bakkt, Fidelitys ready, and we'll have second layer solutions for the small guy as well. Debt of USD will keep on growing showcasing that it's far from solved (the fiat problem). Bitcoin will be a strong bet and right now it's tiny, so I see 6 $figures.

I don’t think Chinese New Year affects the bitcoin price at all. The price will likely begin to recover as we seem to be nearing the end of the bear market but that isn’t connected to Chinese NY imo.

People tend to correlate unrelated things, to justify a hunch....

I think chinese new year affects the market because there are a big portion of chinese on cryptocurrency. We all know that chinese people are mostly rich and maybe they also interested all in cypto. If this is real, chinese new year will really makes a difference or its just a pretty coincidence.

Well if the point of dropping before the Chinese new year and raising back on the same price I guess it's pretty possible. But I wouldn't bet on this like 100%, as I know trading of crypto is banned in China, so not so much people from there will be able to sell coins at all.

I think that last year every holiday or religious day was seen as a reason for either price growth or slip
Is market down due to Eid of muslims?
 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4473102.0)

I'm seriously waiting for a topic like
"My cat *** 3 times in a row, and I haven't seen this since 2017, does this mean the price will go up?"


Sorry but since 2013 nobody really gives a damn about Chinese overinflated numbers.



And that is going to form another bubble and that will also pop and we will end again with one,two ..six years of bear market, and at one point people are going to really get tired of those cycles and there will no next one.
We either have linear small constant growth reflected by RL usage or a coin that jumps up and down by orders of 10, that is used solely to manipulate and fleece small investors.

Trying to make predictions like that is completely useless, just because the price of bitcoin has moved in a certain way during a specific time does not guarantee that it will happen again, just look at what happened during the end of the previous year, for some years bitcoins had the tendency to go up at the end of the year and so everyone was expecting a recovery and it did not happen and this only created even more desperation among those that were waiting for a price increase.

It's always hard to tell when the bottom is in. This is particularly so because no two bottoms will ever look the same. So everyone expecting things to play out exactly like 2014-2015 are likely to be disappointed.

I agree, people are putting too much emphasis on Bakkt. Institutions are patient and usually accumulate over long periods. They're unlikely to just start pumping BTC because Bakkt launches. That's wishful thinking.

Plus, there are things like "hidden leverage" (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyse-owner-bitcoin-market-may-205553702.html) that Bakkt might encourage which can dilute the perceived supply. This can suppress the price.

China being an early contributor to the growth of cryptocurrency in its early days have a big impact on the price movement. As per data every Chinese new year has caused price bumping around the time period. As the market is much downtrodden, a forward push at least by that time period will give a positive growth and lets to massive adoption which is lacking.

I don't know about that, it could happen, but it's no guarantee the bitcoin price can get down as before. But all of us still have the same hope which is bitcoin price can increase, and it is starting to rally to the higher price. But if we see the chart yearly, bitcoin started to rally after February so we can hope it will happen again in this year and if that happens, then it is a good start for bitcoin to rise and recover the price.

I don't think that there are any fundamentals to back this one up.

Sure, some Chinese bitcoin investors may be inclined to sell before the CNY in order to celebrate the festival, but apart from that, I don't see any sizeable drop in demand that would suggest that bitcoin prices before the CNY should drop drastically. Nor are there any fundamentals that are able to justify predicting the rise in price after the CNY.

I personally think that it could be possible given that a lot of bitcoin traders do believe in this, and it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But at the end of the day, even if a bull run does emerge out of the CNY, I don't think it will be long lived. The markets are still extremely bearish sentimented and I don't think a recovery is coming in the first half of the year.

Chances are yes, it looks like in February this will be the beginning of the pump running and towards the Chinese New Year I see an upward movement happening, maybe this is just a refresher or something, but chances are we will see positive changes to the crypto market at least I'll wait for a change until the end of this month, if it passes then it is likely that prices may fall lower.

Usually there will be a rising, from the psychology view the Chinese investors going to sell some of the coin before Chinese New year and going to buy again few week after the Chinese New year, but the market is unpredictable at moment alot of thing has been going in different way, so it can be a reference but can't be rely on 100%

I don't think we should based the past to see the future, it's different now and we all witness what happen.

All we can do now is just hope that the price will rise again, even if it's not gonna happen after the Chinese new year, this market has still
a big room to grow, it could be next moth or this month but one thing is sure, I'll hold still.

Yes we already know it but what op wants to know if the price of btc could rise or not . you can simply answer the question yes or no  . 

Imo price will fall because people tend to sell , not only chinese but almost crypto holders because they want to celebrate on this event . they will sell because they need funds to in order to prepare for their food and also to have a pocket money when roaming around the city .

such a possibility because surely the Chinese will buy some bitcoin and will move the price of bitcoin again, this event often occurs even though the price increase is not too much but surely the price will rise and you should be able to know that all possible bitcoin price movements can occur.

Bitcoin traditionally has showed very little correlation with any sort of real-world events, especially those that are not directly related to Bitcoin, like Chinese new year or holidays in general. I think it's safe to assume that all such ideas are just myths born out of desperate need to explain the unpredictable Bitcoin price movements. People were always looking back at the most recent events and try to fit them into an explanation of how they caused the price change, and many have believed it and now try to predict the future, but in fact most of the time there's no such mechanism.

Well as we can there's nothing changes in price of bitcoin until now we experience the bear market. And no one can tell when this bear season will end because many cryptocians is losing there investment. But hopefully soon the market will be back on track again in higher level.

I hope so but of course its not that big news that can pump easily the price of bitcoin but who knows, everything is possible so hope for the best. May the Chinese new year gives us luck and to prosper us for the whole year of 2019. So try to invest now, and secure some profit if the uptrend comes in.

Well that's the thing we can only cling right now - hope. But I will echo the sentiments of most posters here. I never seen any holiday for that matter affecting the price, much more Chinese new year. And we all know that the Chinese government have been cracking down on bitcoin so it will be a challenge for casuals or even big investors from China to pump the price after their new year.

Yes, there's definitely some pattern here

As every year on this very forum there is a thread popping up about the effects of the Chinese new year on the Bitcoin price. Do you also think it is not an entirely random event? Kidding aside, I suspect that what we are dealing with here is called selection bias. You see, it is normal for Bitcoin price to drop every other week (and rise on odd weeks), so you can take any year and find out that Bitcoin price always drops within 2-4 weeks before the Chinese new year. Just like 2-4 weeks after it

It can be but still not sure since last Christmas and New year the price doesn’t move high so probably this can be an ordinary day for cryptocurrency. We wants the market to pump but we also need new technology, that can attract more investors, i think this is more important.

I couldn't see any connection between the holidays and the market price to starts the bull run because if you have noticed during the holiday season all of the markets are starting to fall. So, probably it won't affect the market's price but their supermarket would start to change because it's a holiday.

Besides of that bear market is not done yet so why would you bother anyway?

I think the same pattern is going to happen this year 2019. We are going to see some little recovery some days to come and those recovering may push bitcoin above $4000 again.  I could said that the Chinese traders are one of the major market mover.

Just a day away from the Chinese new year the market hasn't shown any signs of growth. Right now the market has been experiencing a downtrend soon after few hours of the green market. As of now the market needs time to get flourish and marked green, until then can expect the same pattern of growth.

Let's stop asking these things everyday. Doing that won't push anything up for us. Fact is that asking what will move us up won't do anything better. What can do something better is to teach people in your locality who are ignorant about this technology how it works. That's what can move us somewhere.

increase is coming soon. investor are not far away. we need cash flow to grow.

Right now we don't know for sure about the market after the Chinese new year, just hoping it will be better. The movements that have occurred so far are quite slow and tend to go down so many feel they are losing. Let's wait to see the current crypto flow.

I think that might happen. But that is only a possibility because everything can happen in the crypto world .
Chinese New Year can indeed be used as a good momentum, hopefully this will be a good start.
We as crypto users must try to increase crypto transactions because when demand factors increase, the price will increase as well.
Let us together support the development of crypto, because without all of us we will never reach a much better level.
The price of Bitcoin is very possible to happen and we are part of the development of Bitcoin in this era.

I have made threads that history will definitely repeat itself, but for the Chinese New Year I might disagree with you, maybe you remember since there was news China banned the ICO even the price of bitcoin remained stable did not drop too dramatically, I want to say that bearish will end in by the end of this year, hopefully it will help you

The Chinese new year officially starts tomorrow, but so far crypto market is down. So there is no correlation after all. The price is really based on the sentiments of traders, if they feel its the right time to buy then no matter it's a holiday or not, they will purchased it.

I’m optimistic that Bitcoins prices shall rise, but I’m not sure if it will rise as the new year ends in China we will have to wait and see. As of now there’s not much changes in the prices, it seems the extended bear phase will continue in the Chinese New Year too. The moments are called as fluctuations, and bitcoins is a volatile currency and one should avoid short term fluctuations for bigger long term gains.

Well, after all the talk the Chinese new year is coming. I doubt it will have an affect but honestly I don't know the new year in china and how they celebrate it. Maybe they have a system that I don't know about but looking at our own new year celebrations there was nothing that could affect the price of bitcoin. Looking at Christmas, or new years or anything in between there is just sitting around eating drinking and having fun, I am sure Chinese people do the same, they have fun, entertain, eat, drink and just celebrate which doesn't seem to have anything in common with bitcoin or its price.

Even though, I could be totally wrong and maybe their culture is different but after all there is just one more day left, I already have as much bitcoin as I can afford right now and will be waiting and put up a sell at %10 profit just in case so I don't miss it.

Tomorrow is chinese new year and until now there's no movement happen. I don't think they have connection of chinese new year to the bitcoin price because as far as I know china will ban crypto correct me if Im wrong so it will not go up the value even the chinese celebrate a new year unless they will able to buy more bitcoin again and moat of the chinese do that for sure the value will up.

I am not sure that it is a fixed pattern. The fact is, the prices keep declining. I tend to believe that the trend would be bounce back signficantly in the last trimester of this year.

It could go up or would not be right. Bitcoin could rise up after Chinese new year, as per specialists or study whatever meant nothing even can't ensure future outcomes. There are bunches of expectations that, people are always saying shit like this and it's just end up with misery. In the long run, it "could", go up, yet who knows.

i think every people do same thing , have fun ,go shopping , eat and celebrate but  china different form other is they have long week end after new year for go back to your home to meet family.

it around 2 week if price rise up maybe after 25 feb

Well if that happen that the price move up after Chinese new year it's good news for us but still its hard to predict what will be happen after the Chinese new year. Let's see what will be happen after that if it will give us a good luck.

Chinese new year celebrations have begun, yet we don't see any variation in the market. The market seems fluctuating, and it is highly supportive to traders. The recently launched bittorrent tokens have been experiencing a large scale growth upon the Chinese new year. After the new year the price need to get pushed forward.

No one could really tell where it will go this year, but me and everyone i think  still hoping that it will rise up.

Observing the event right now, there's no minor or major movements while the chinese new year are now being celebrated around the asian countries who have the influence of chinese traditions, let see after this celebrations if investment will flow back for sure it will bring a huge impact if many of those
chinese people who knew crypto will work inside.

bitcoin will increase after Chinese New Year? I don't think so, well hopefully so that all altcoins will increase as well.

The same was anticipated last year and nothing happened. it is becoming that the price of bitcoin is driven by a force that no one knows. We cannot predict whether bitcoin will rise or not after the Chinese new year holidays. The only thing now that is encouraging me is the rate at which crypto is being adopted by some institutions and firms around the globe. If there is mass adoption, the price may rise because of the demand for bitcoin in daily activities like shopping and the likes.

thats the good thing here. mass adoption will definitely help elevate the price of bitcoin.
  with the increase of number of crypto users and payment centers, slowly but surely we are heading in a favourable direction...
but increase in bitcoin price after this chinese new year is still a speculation. we havent seen anything yet atm

Chinese new year has no relatation to the decline of the price and it cant either help to increase the price of btc  . those said event is only small and not all people will celebrate it not unlike to a real new year where all the countries must participate because that is already a tradition .


Btt is already growing ever since january , thats why i dont believe that chinese new year have them  . its only a co incident  .

This may be the cause of the decline. It is a time when the Chinese are beginning to buy gifts for this holiday, and therefore they are getting rid of parts of their inventory of cryptos.
I noticed it also, repeats annually, while the course of cryptos affects not only China but also other countries of East Asia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Then, we could expect increase again.

I think we are in the same situations because the bitcoin price does not rise and only get down for more. But we can expect to see the price will rise again in the next week if there is many people decide to buy bitcoin and it will push the price to increase higher. Unfortunately, if we cannot see the price increase in the next week, we need to wait for a while but the chance for the price to increase still be wide open.

I think that this year the influence of the Chinese new year will not be as dramatic as it was in previous years, primarily because the market is now at the very bottom for a long time and a further price drop is not included in the plans of the whales who manipulate the market. A relatively small drawdown to the level of 3000 is possible, but not lower.

Difficult to predict for future prices, because the chart doesn't have a big effect. it is actually because good news or FUD can trigger price speculation as well. If you talk about the price, maybe is able to back to 2017 but in 2020 or 2021 later, like the halving cycle.

We cant say something if we are not on that place, right? so we cants say that the price of bitcoin will rise this time after chinese new year as what happen before based on what you said because everything has the possibility to change.

Just stay calm and wait because I believe time will come that the price of bitcoin will be alright, but for now we need to enjoy what is the current situation.

What is the influence that the Chinese still have on price? already have months that the Chinese stopped exerting a great influence on the prices of cryptos. So I doubt very much that the Chinese New Year will have any influence on the price of bitcoin, the reality is that people have become accustomed to many things, are not those time of the past where any nope moved the markets

Well there's always this speculation about cny affecting the market every year though i don't see any direct effect it may have. The regular holidays where people usually spend more have hardly any effect in pulling the price down or pushing it up.

It seems like this prediction really happened, now the price of bitcoin at the exchange has begun to show an increase in prices and this happens when after the Chinese holiday, hopefully the price of bitcoin can recover to its highest price again.

We already past Chinese New year but since we do talk about "After" then we cant be sure if this recent price increase on BTC price is mainly
with this event nor on others, no one really knows since every fundamentals can possible affect bitcoins price unexpectedly.

we need to see what news or something to make BTC rise 7.xx% to 3666USD

if tomorrow price not drop too much maybe it good sign

Today there was a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin (more than 200 dollars). In conditions when a huge number of people had doubts about the continuation of his growth - this is more than obvious evidence that Bitcoin now has a trend up, not down. So, we must continue to keep our coins and not believe those who are trying to convince you that they should be sold.

i dont think the sudden increase is owed to this aftermath of chinese new year stuff
 more of possible etf approval. but in any case, this is good for all of us, btc holders.
let them buy bitcoin and continue its price increase...

I can't see any direct connection between Chinese new year and Bitcoin price. This looks to me like some artificial theory of connection that is pushed all the time but without any solid explanation.
Currently we can see some positive movement in the market but this is still far from recovery and I don't think is some sudden and big price rise that will come over night.

The price didn't dropped for today so it means a good sign, yes totally a good sign for the community.

Although there's no exact connection that the market will recover somehow just because the Chinese new year is done.

Price history repeat itself and its very obvious that the end of Chinese holidays had made a significant impact on the price of bitcoin some people believed that there is no correlation between the holiday and the change in price meanwhile the recent pump in price could be attributed to the end of the holidays price is making a headway after a prolonged bearish runs which could triggers upward runs as speculated.

past events do not guarantee the same thing will happen again
selective bias , we tend to pick some unrelated event and justify our theories by comparing the possibility of it happening again, just because it happened in the past
in gambling it is called the gambler's fallacy :)
there is a chance that bitcoin goes up, but that would be because demand is > supply , not because of the chinese new year end

That means this February and March should be months  to watch over and it also means we might start wetness strong recovering face.

I didn't really believe that the price would go up. I assumed the initial going down because I thought Chinese people would sell off their coins to pay for stuff but now that I look at the price we can see an increase. Do you guys think yesterdays increase is due to any relation with the Chinese new year ?

I don't know how their culture is but is there like money exchanging hands in any situation? I don't know what could be the reason and honestly I am making stuff up so maybe its totally irrelevant and this increase has nothing to do with the Chinese new year but if you look at the dates we can see that it is pretty close in time and right afterwards we started to see bitcoin increasing and being on a better path.

Whoever assumed it would go up was right, maybe they were right because of the Chinese new year or maybe they were just lucky but they were right all the same.