After Chinese new year BTC price will rise?

[netto7]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

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[harizen]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

Past performance can't guarantee future results.

There are lots of expectations that didn't happened in 2018 which is based from the happenings in 2017. Same scenario might happen to what is your pointing out which is now as 2018 as based of reference.

I also don't see Chinese New Year event as big factor to triggered the price rise for a big percentage.

[tenakha]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

If this were for other tradable assets, there would be an answer near to the truth. Bitcoin has not yet been fully tamed and still very wild and this is why price prediction is really far away these days. On the other hand price is too low and I do not think owners will sell at this price. Therefore this year maybe the new year will have no impact on the price.    

[cellard]

It's probably going to be another regular day. I don't expect anything to happen this year. This year will be the final test where hodlers of last resort are put to test and any remaining noobs that don't get the fundamentals of Bitcoin are still yet to capitulate. I can see a flash crash as low as $1300-ish for a final capitulation as worst case scenario.

Another probable scenario is going sideways for a long time, then price starts creeping up slowly, and this is how typically FOMO is formed, everyone that was waiting on the sidelines start getting nervous and a bullish chain reaction is created.

If Bitcoin-settled operations like Bakkt, Fidelity or ETF are approved and get tons of volume then we could go $100k overnight since some people seem to forget Bitcoin is still tiny and any institutional buy orders can skyrocket it.

[pooya87]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

when looking at the charts and price change then reporting it, you can not selectively choose what suits your needs and then report that alone!
what you just said here is outright wrong. price didn't drop before Chinese New Year. price has been dropping for over month already by the time the new year happened. in fact it started dropping in mid December of 2017 and continued until February 2018 where it reached the bottom. that is more than 2 months. but you are only selecting 1 week out of 9-10 weeks just to make your conclusion here.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

there has been no pattern ever. not in 2018 and not in any other year before that and there will never be any.
price may or may not rise but whatever it does, it won't be because of Chinese new year.

[romero121]

Every year similar pattern of growth won't take place. Last year we were happy to experience such a miraculous growth which we never expected before the days of bitcoin moving forward. Every year people starts speculating about the bitcoin market with relation to the Chinese New Year. Now we're close to the days of Chinese New Year, let's wait a week or two to know what's happening with the market.

[adaseb]

I would not count on it increasing the price.

Last year we were expecting the Chinese New Year to increase the price, it didn't.

Then we were waiting for Wall Street Bonuses to increase the price, it didn't.

Then we were waiting for the end of the tax year to increase the price, it actually increased it a little but went down shortly after.

Then it was the Consensus, which if anything price fell.

We are in the bear market and its hard to tell when we will hit the bottom. Even if Bakkt goes live in a month or 2, it doesn't mean the price will go up necessarily.

[Wind_FURY]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

Past performance can't guarantee future results.

Good answer.

But OP, zoom out. It is really hard to deny the reality that Bitcoin's long term trajectory has been always going up. The market deals with probabilities, not the absolutes.

[Kemarit]

I'm sorry to burst the bubble for you, but there's no assurance that it will happen or repeat the same pattern this year. Remember last year was different, around that time people still cling to hope that Bitcoin won't go down that hard. However, we have seen that it's not the caseso I doubt that we will see some positive effect before and after the Chinese New Year. If the price spike then what? Do you think it will be sustainable as well?

[ecnalubma]

If someone will hype the chinese market then definitely the rise might be possible but lets also look at its negative side, Chinese new year might not be an accumulation period but also might be a selling season. Since its not different from other occasions that's why we need to be careful when buying we definitely no knowledge of what will gonna happen next.

[davis196]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

I don't believe so.Last year,there were other factors that were driving the bitcoin price,not the Chinese new year.Let's hope that bitcoin will become legal again in China.This won't happen soon,but the chinese can't create a successful government backed coin.

[audaciousbeing]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

I have stop believing in all of this. Although, I am not underplaying the amount of influence national holidays could have on the price of bitcoin but there is need to just shift attention away from that and focus on objective reasons and point that could influence the price of crypto in our preferred way. Since last year when the price has been going down, there have been series of event happening in several countries all over the world and even those who are not as harsh against bitcoin like China but nothing happened rather than increase in price, the opposite is what is being witnessed.

[Magkirap]

I do not have any idea about this coming Chinese new year will be good in the price of bitcoin. It seems that many people say that after Chinese new year the price of bitcoin will gonna rise up but I think we do not know what will happen.

[BrewMaster]

only if you can convince millions of people who are trading bitcoin that Chinese new year is affecting the market! and to do that you need to convince then to not look at the charts and instead take your word for it blindly.
otherwise we are on the same path as before. price is being kept down for accumulation and profit making and it won't go up unless whale accumulators are satisfied or enough time passes that the market rallies against them.

[gabmen]

The last quarter of 2018 already made it clear that historical patterns can't be a good basis for what will happen anymore. It's up for anyone's speculation on what'll happen come chinese newyear but the occassion itself for me won't be a catalyst for any major movement.

[Matthewmorris4]

I think it's not that easy, big holidays will not make market recover quickly, because there is no logical reason for this.

why should they buy a coin at that time?
what about when after the Chinese new year, the market is in a declining condition ? if we fight the market flow it is also not a good thing

[1Referee]

If Bitcoin-settled operations like Bakkt, Fidelity or ETF are approved and get tons of volume then we could go $100k overnight since some people seem to forget Bitcoin is still tiny and any institutional buy orders can skyrocket it.

I'm more inclined to think that even when we have all of the above on board, it will take years to actually jump over the $100,000 level. It will take a while before the OTC market has been emptied, which is where these players get their coins.

On the other hand, it might also result in more spot supply if these coins end up being dumped on the spot market, so if the spot demand isn't all that high, it's quite likely that we'll see it backfire at one point. Currently we can say the same about the market. There has been an increase in OTC demand, but decline in spot demand, and I'm certain that OTC coins have been dumped on the way down.

[netto7]

I'm sorry to burst the bubble for you, but there's no assurance that it will happen or repeat the same pattern this year. Remember last year was different, around that time people still cling to hope that Bitcoin won't go down that hard. However, we have seen that it's not the caseso I doubt that we will see some positive effect before and after the Chinese New Year. If the price spike then what? Do you think it will be sustainable as well?

it ok.  im not dreaming or hope  about BTC will rise and make new All time high in this year anymore.

but someone in my county say BTC will go down to new bottom in next month maybe go to 2.5K i don't know it FUD or not.

[dothebeats]

I wouldn't bank on it heavily though, as there aren't any clear signs of the market improving, and past perfomances doesn't necessarily mean that it will happen again in the future. People have been trying to relate holidays and big events to price movements and always end up in disappointments. Well there are cases in which such events brought insane price action, but from the looks of the market (with low volumes on exchanges very recently), I don't think something significant and positive will happen after the Chinese New Year.

[cellard]

If Bitcoin-settled operations like Bakkt, Fidelity or ETF are approved and get tons of volume then we could go $100k overnight since some people seem to forget Bitcoin is still tiny and any institutional buy orders can skyrocket it.

I'm more inclined to think that even when we have all of the above on board, it will take years to actually jump over the $100,000 level. It will take a while before the OTC market has been emptied, which is where these players get their coins.

On the other hand, it might also result in more spot supply if these coins end up being dumped on the spot market, so if the spot demand isn't all that high, it's quite likely that we'll see it backfire at one point. Currently we can say the same about the market. There has been an increase in OTC demand, but decline in spot demand, and I'm certain that OTC coins have been dumped on the way down.

I don't think the OTC market can sustain the amount of volume that these big players would need, there's not enough liquidity, at some point it has to happen.

By 2022 I expect $100k easy. We'll have the ETF, Bakkt, Fidelitys ready, and we'll have second layer solutions for the small guy as well. Debt of USD will keep on growing showcasing that it's far from solved (the fiat problem). Bitcoin will be a strong bet and right now it's tiny, so I see 6 $figures.