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New GDP figures show that Italy's economy shrank by 0.2% in the final three months of 2018, a worse result than expected. That follows a 0.1% contraction in July-September, meaning Italy is now officially in a technical recession.

Are we at a brink of new economic crisis?

Italy has been in trouble for many years along with Portugal, Greece, and Spain. They are dragging down the EU and are in need of a bail out. The EU will not be able to bail everyone out so they will have to turn to something else like Bitcoin to help them

It was predictable, the Italian economy hasn't found its right path since the 2008 crisis. I believe this is the second recession since 2008. Instead of fighting to find out who the culprit is, they should find a solution to find the billions they need instead to take it from the reforms budget. Because the people who will suffer are again the citizens.

When you have no money, you have no money no matter if it's EUR-USD-BTC-Potatoes-Apple-Rice or anything else. You can print money but not bitcoins

Of course they should, but not the fact that they will. As you know, the government has its own views on this. And by the way, it is possible that investments and the introduction of the blockchain could contribute to the changes in their economy.

Absolutely. Italian debt is currently sitting at an astronomical 131% of GDP, with an incompetent government.

With even Germany facing a recession (https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/08/economy/germany-economy-recession-fears/index.html), the Eurozone is on the brink. China's growth is slowing. UK is facing a no-deal Brexit. US can't keep their government open. We are facing another global recession.

How do I short the world?

None of them are prepared to do the correct thing which is reduce debt and the cost of government.   Problem for Italy is its in the EURO which means they dont really have control over their own monetary policy in order to properly assess all aspects.    The focus on UK is really overplayed as EU in any case needs to deal with its issues and UK was not in EURO since the ERM anyway, in that case UK was forced out from lack of support from other EU members and it might be the same for Italy now.

   Leaving ERM was mostly automatic where as I suppose Italy is tied to EURO and has to make a hard decision to recognise they will do better outside, that seems unlikely until the situation deteriorates further and becomes more obvious

I read in the newspaper that Italy was the only European country in recession and Germany avoided it despite their situation.

Now thinking about it, it remembers me the buzz about The Economist cover in January, which, following people opinion, was a subliminal message for a dark year in 2019.


Illuminati confirmed!  :o

If my memory serves me correctly (and it may not), I recall reading a book about Jesse Livermore who was a legendary stock trader from almost 100 years ago, and he found a way to do almost exactly that.  He saw a huge recession coming and shorted a wide variety of stocks.  I don't know if you can short index funds, but you could probably make a ton of money doing so.  I've never played around with the options market, but I think that's another way you could do it--all those derivatives you can trade are basically ways to gamble on the future of pretty much anything and everything.

That's true, no doubt.  But I don't think Italy or any other country in financial trouble is looking for crypto as a solution--but for us as individuals living under the rule of financially irresponsible governments, it may provide some sort of means of protecting what wealth we have.

I've also noticed gold & silver have increased quite a bit in the last week.  That's usually not a great sign that things are going well, and I definitely get the feeling that we're starting to see cracks in the system.  I'm just hoping that whatever comes isn't another Great Depression or worse...but that could happen, easily.

People often panic because of come news that's negative enough to be caused. I don't think we are at the brink of economic crisis just because of economic shrank of one country.

Livermoore went broke several times also though, child genius tortured by success but also failure.    Problem with that short is it has a counter-party, you rely on essentially a kind of debt to be paid on delivery.  Same with lots of these instruments, they need banks not to fall apart.    Now governments needs banks also to survive because the debt system is continually relying on the turn over short term of trillions.

The obvious answer would be gold then.   I'm not saying this wishing that it be true but its not a value that relies on politics or any one country or set of business to exist.    There is some parallel to the decentralisation of crypto in that but they arent so close imo and theres no way in hell BTC or anything will replace gold or any commodity you can think of.   Arguably BTC is very good short term cash, long term I think its best for spare or profits not your pension :p


I dont imagine it happens all at once.     Sterling was primary world reserve currency and a hundred years after it stumbled, its still actually kept in reserve globally by a variety of nations however only to a proportion under 10% maybe 5% by now for all I know but it is still around internationally in many trade contracts outside UK so thats partially global currency.   I guess Dollar could continue for decades even while declining and not especially retaining value, the world wont switch to SDR or any other alternative that fast.

The nature of SDR is like EURO afaik, so SDR contains dollars anyway.   I can only see a jump to SDR if US volunteered it

The economy shrank in several countries. Italy has just been the first A) to release numbers and B) where it shrank enough to be termed a recession (i.e. 2 simultaneous negative quarters).

Germany's GDP for Q3 last year was -0.2%. They haven't released their figures for Q4 yet, but predictions are they have probably just avoided it at something like 0.05%. Certainly way lower than their previous forecasts. Italy is the world's 8th biggest economy and Germany is its 4th. China could well be in a recession already, but we don't know because they just make up fake numbers to make themselves look better than they are. They are the 2nd biggest economy. The UK (5th biggest economy) will almost certainly face a recession with a no deal Brexit, which is becoming more likely by the day. Some of the largest countries in the world are shrinking and are on the brink of recessions.

The World Bank recently cut their growth forecast for 2019. So did the IMF. And the UN.

I'm not saying we are definitely headed towards a global recession, but it seems more likely than not at the moment.

Yes, those countries are really in trouble for years now so there’s no new about this one aside from adopting cryptocurrency as your great way to escape on that crisis. EU are really in trouble if more members enter into recession then the world economic crisis is possible. It will take more time before they recover again, bitcoin is a good substitue though.

It's expected, Italy is one of the weakest economy in EU and at the same time one of the largest. Italian economy was hit badly in 2008 and now they are government by a populist social party, introducing a no-conditional income of 780 euro per month for all people without real estates.

Italy - huge debt (130%+), populist social government, spending like a crazy == recession. I think the situation could be in Bitcoin favor.

That's just not true. There are many conditions.

You have to have been resident in Italy for 10 years. Your household (not individual) income must be below €9,360 before you start being awarded anything. The maximum you can receive is €780 if you are living alone and have no income whatsoever. If you are not signed up with a job center and actively seeking work, you don't get the money. If you refuse job offers, you don't get the money.

This is simply an unemployment allowance, which many countries have. It is nothing remotely like a "no-conditional income" as you suggest.

i've been watching permabears trying to short the stock market for years---such a dangerous game. many trading accounts have been destroyed trying to front run the next 2008. if you wanna try your luck, i suggest the proshares 3x short s&p500 ETF (SPXU) for maximum exposure. ;)

the fact that everyone sees a global recession coming right now tells me it's not happening yet. especially after that v-shaped recovery in stocks. i think people are jumping the gun by a couple years.

Yeah, you're right. What the Italian government is doing it is a support to unemployment, which is conditional to job search and very strict conditions, not money given to those who do not want to do anything. A kind of help that most of the developed countries already have.

this is also what i think.
i believe most of the scary stuff about recession we see nowadays is mostly the fear that the 2008 recession created in the minds of everyone and since it is so recent people still see it on every corner.

the real recession however is not something that you would read about that easily. it will be kept silent until the insiders get out or at least make some plans and preparations. then it will break out and go viral overnight.

The problem is that when a country has no product that it sells overseas for a lot of profit its usually stuck with the people inside and the changing of money from same person to same person. All countries need money from other countries to get by and some countries think that a bail out is a solution and they need to get help from other countries to get out of this but that is just one off help which won't solve the issue for a long period of time, it will return back being a bad situation when that money is finished.

Hence, Italy just needs products that they can sell to other countries to make a lot of money, think of apple where apple sells to whole world and brings in money to USA and pay a lot of taxes. Same applies to Italy, maybe not something as big as Apple of course but something at a more possible level where they sell something to whole world and bring in profits back to Italy will fix this issue.

^^  That last point relates to exchange rates, incoming money for domestic production sold abroad has far more worth in an economy with a floating exchange rate.    The super obvious example of how this is out of balance would be Greece, all those beautiful islands and they could have so much money coming in from tourism for sure.   China took an interest in a dock and the shipping side of things.   Problem is Greece is handcuffed to the same rate as Germany and I dont think it fits.    The rigid control on that exchange, also interest rates and all sorts of thing is part of what is causing the failure.   Italy I think is similar in suffering from poorly adjusted economic management, the whole of europe sharing the euro is not a good fit

it could be, Venezuela yesterday, now Italy. and there are still many countries that are experiencing a crisis. I think this is not the impact of America vs. North Korea that triggered World War 3. It never happened in modern times.

Venezuela is ten times more serious then Italy which just needs to reorganise and as a rich country pull back some of their over spending to reduce debt.   Not exactly harsh times, Venezuela may not survive as a country without a revolution.

So thats really slight, more true to say they failed to grow as thats barely much of a pull back.    Venezuela is in death spiral, literally people starving to death from no ability to exist in any way.
The main problem Italy has is that its fixed into that pan European economy with rates set outside the country that will not allow it to adjust as a normal economy might, its caught in a series of political hurdles.    

I think this is because of their country's internal factors. like in Venezuela, the government only relied on the oil sector, so that when oil prices were destroyed, the crisis ensued

The crisis in Venezuela started long before the oil prices dropped. I mean, yes, the government was relying way too heavily on oil money, but the bigger factor was how that money was spent. Very little of it was spent on the Venezuelan people, infrastructure, economy, etc. The majority of it was spent by the corrupt government to help Maduro consolidate power, gift to his friends and supporters, pay off or "silence" enemies, etc.

Venezuela's current crises goes way deeper than simply not having enough money.

Italy has a big debt but it also contributes a lot to the GDP of the European Union making Euro a competitive currency.
Its economy can be stabilized without any help or bailout from other countries.

Opponents of the European Idea just spread FUD about the European Federation in order to break the Union.

Italy is the next Greece and Spain is the next Italy.

Germany and France make all the decisions in the EU and that pisses of the countries like Italy, Spain, Greece etc... Actually they don't give a fuck anymore. They very well know ECB will cover their asses no matter what they do. They already covered Greece's back and that gave Italy lots of courage.

No, we are just being degraded and the crisis will be worse. Not only in Italy has a bad GDP index, in countries like China, France and Venezuela, the GDP index has been significantly reduced.
But we should not be too worried. GDP is a general indicator of the financial situation as well as the income of a country. The most important thing is that people's living standards are still good and there are not many alarms.

I cant believe what all people brought into this thread. Economic crisis will be global and will consider everyone of you. No it will not consider only Spain and I dont know which European country. But every single country. We live in a global world with global economy.

Second. Venezuela? Really?  Venezuela will least feel economic crisis since its economy is already isolated and the economic pressure on them is only increasing. And this is not really their main problem. Their main problem is the media campaign that is going on ( and its influence is also seen by posts in this thread) to destabilize country and start a civil war or any kind of war there. Same that happened in Syria and Tunisia. This will be the worse thing that can happen and I am 99% sure it will happen when I see all this pressure.   Result will be totally same as in Tunisia and Syria. Few years of wars, government and economy collapse. Citizens moving to neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil. In case of Syria was Jordan. In case of Tunisia was Algeria and Lybia.  Since those countries will be at a brink of a collapses because of all the refuges, they will ask for help other countries. And here is the main big difference.  North from Syria and Tunisia is Europe. North from Venezuela is USA.  Trust me what I am saying here. Biggest wall Trump can build on Mexico border is to keep Venezuela war free as it is right now.

There is already a big crisis in the world.  Why do you think Britain wanted to leave the European Union? World Crisis starts from Europe,
Unfortunately, people are becoming impoverished throughout the world.... Those who manage this crisis will survive; this is my opinion.

All Europe is entering in recession
There are alarming data from Germany even
France economy is nightmare
But most interesting data are from USA
Most known economic data from USA are very good but there is one small alarming one
7 mln USA  citzens are not paying his car insurance for last 90 days
That data compare to data from 2017 just before 2018 crisis

Why should me or you bother how people in UK will live. We dont live there. Let them decide what to do in peace for themselves.  Because of me they can live on the moon. It is up to them an none of anyone's business.

Now you say there is already a financial crisis. I assume you are from Turkey. What was Turkeys GDP in Q3 and Q4 of last year?

The current trade war is increasingly out of control, the European economic crisis has been fairly degenerate about France there are many demonstrations that wear yellow vests. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire also claimed that the demonstration was a disaster for business well the news had also spread throughout the world

Italians are not forward thinking enough to push their economy forwards. They will rely on the germans to bail them out. If there are any talented italians reading this, please create a worthy ICO worth billions and save your country

haha, Italians do trade everyday which helps Germany and all the others in the union.   Thats the benefit of the EU and Euro but I dont know it's enough for a permanent fix in exchange and currency rate between the two countries and others.

I think in the future we see more volatility and we will need more adaptable links between countries.   It doesnt mean an end to trade like the whole brexit thing going on, is overblown.  Trade can carry on just the idea of fixed rigid links, I think these break and must be more free to alter with any waves in the global economy.    Change is inevitable and healthy even :)

I don't think it'll just be something that will occur in Italy. A recession in one country (perhaps not in this case) could trigger recessions in other countries too.

A recession is due any time. We just don't know when we'll see that consecutive quarters of negative growth. We also don't know the government policies around the world for different countries, how they are going to potentially inject liquidity into the market in order to stimulate the economy. That's why it's pretty much impossible for us to predict which country is going to get hit next, and when.

But people are expecting it around the world, economic analysts are predicting it. We are seeing a rebound in the stock sector, but will that last? Since it's impossible to predict when it's going to happen, I'd rather be safe at this stage, diversify out of stocks and real estate to some decentralised assets (gold, silver, crypto) and some short term cash holdings.

Most EU countries are in deep financial crisis, but the crisis havn't been noted so much thanks to the Euro central banks quantitative easing, but that  have come to an end  a month ago, so from now on we will start to see some of the southern EU countries go in to recesion. Prices of everything have been gone up, thanks to the quantitative easing, but most salary's haven't follow the higher prices.

I think many countries have experienced poor economic growth, this might be caused by the declining Chinese economy that is experiencing a trade war with America. great effects can be felt in most countries in the world. erratic economic conditions might be an Italian invader experiencing an economic downturn.

Trade war better US Government and Chinese Government affecting to world economy. Euro economic already in economic crisis start with greece and perhaps after Italy, Spain will be next because the unemplyment rate very high

@STT
The risk for Italy is a lot bigger than Venezuela. Italy will damages full Europe...at least... and it could have also an impact on the worldwide economy. Greece received 10 trillion from the IFM to recapitalize the country, but they won't be able to do the same with Italy. Nor it will be enough.

I must have missed your reply here, but now that I saw it, I have to say I agree--people are probably being too quick in saying an economic disaster is on our doorstep by a couple of years at least.  There are always people saying everything is going to crash, even in the best of times.

Italy is just one country; it's an important one, true, but it's certainly possible for a single country to be doing badly while the rest of the world is thriving.  Remember Greece?  How about Venezuela?  You'll know we're collectively in trouble once the rot spreads to whole continents, and right now things just aren't that bad.  Certainly not bad enough to start contemplating a short sale of global stock market indexes.

With bitcoin or gold, pick the one you like the most.  ;D

We do not know when but all the signs that another huge economic crisis is coming are there so we need something to prepare ourselves since it is possible the next crisis will be unstoppable since the current debt levels of most countries are unsustainable and getting indebted was the trick they used last time to stabilize the economy.

Yes, most commonly those who are on the EU are suffering some decline on their economy and its alarming since those are the countries who are more powerful before compare to other countries. This can be the proof that the world financial crisis is about to begin, and in USA it will surely happen too considering the increase on their debt.

Positive effect if Italy have accepted bitcoin as transaction payment and make bitcoin price will growing up later, we need many country will have allowed for bitcoin become legal transaction at each country in the world.

Hey Italy’s financial mess goes back to 2008 they never really recovered from it, what surprises me they have managed to stay afloat for so long. I don’t know where you read the news, but there’s no official news of Italy accepting bitcoins. In my personal opinion if they choose to accept bitcoins it’ll be a great decision, as the revenue generated from bitcoins will help them save their economy.

I agree, especially for now, where the price of bitcoin this time is relatively low, so if it receives it now, then if the price rises then the people will have a lot of money so that the country's economy becomes advanced. but I don't think it is for the country's long-standing economic problems

they could start convert their asset in bitcoin now.if courage to do this , i am sure it will correct decision.they country now in recesion , and ofcourse their currency down alot.and if switch to bitcoin that in low price they will recovered their assets soon.

It just people are now adopting the system and they'll found out that crypto coins especially for bitcoin really have a contribution with us and it definitely it have the purpose of its creation. This is some kind of huge development in crypto and it may possible that more countries will open up for these.

I wish it was that easy. It's impossible to guess what the price will do in the short to mid term, so if you end up converting to Bitcoin at current "low" levels, there is a chance you'll regret it a month or year after.

People assumed they were safe above the $6000 mark because of how that level kept us up for like 10 months. People were said to be losers for selling there, but who's the loser now?

Just because the peak was $20k back in 2017 doesn't mean that everything below $10k is cheap. The fact that we've been hovering below the $4000 mark for two months now indicates that this price isn't low at all.

Italy or others euro zone never make  improvement on their economic and they just waiting ECB to add more money supply in their economic system. I dont think so easily for Italy to regulate bitcoin like Germany because Germany is not in a crisis

I do not think that the example of Italy can be used to assess the degree of financial state of the entire global economy. Moreover, Italy is not a leader in the EU in terms of economic indicators. If a recession or stagnation begins in the United States or in China, it can be said with confidence that we are on the verge of a new financial crisis. The current situation on the global market is certainly worrying, but the global crisis is still being postponed. But this is my personal opinion. It seems to me that it will begin in 2020. Protectionism and trade wars will play a role in slowing the global economy.

You're wrong because Italy is one of the major European countries and somewhat "a leader". The problem there comes from the banks. One of the oldest and the biggest bank in the country is in agony since a  long time and maybe wasn't able to pass the stress test before perhaps a re-capitalization or something else just to postpone the real problem.
Now if what happened in Greece happens to Italy, Europe won't be able to save Italy like they saved Greece. It's about several trillion € and EU can't afford.

Germany had no growth in Q4 and deficit in Q3.  Germany is 4th world economy.   Italy is 7th world economy. Yes if 6 bigger economy countries would be in recession would that be a bigger news. But I believe 7th economy is still quite big news.

It never happens that recession start in all countries at the same time. I pointed to the fist big economy where it happened and since we are due for a next economic crisis ( last was 10 years ago and on average they happen every 8 years) om my opinion this is a huge sign. 

The Italian economy is indeed having a problem, but if the economic problems in Italy are used as a new economic crisis, I say it is still too far away. The EU will not remain silent and they will try to save the economy of its members. Bitcoin can indeed be one solution and I hope the Italian government has the same thoughts on bitcoin.

It is inevitable for the South countries of not getting impacted by the North countries where they have taken the whole industrial operations of Europe. And add to that, all the countries have a debt (the US has one of the biggest in the world if not the biggest) yet it is compared to the GDP of each country. Italy has a strong manufacturing industry and retail which keep the country alive.

Italy has never had a strong economy and a good GDP growth rate in the country.
After the last recession in 2008, the country has not solved its problems on the budget deficit and all these 10 years was in a symbolic plus.
Sanctions against Russia also play an important role, as Italy received considerable support for its economy in trade with Russia. Italy is one of the EU countries that was most against the introduction of economic sanctions. And what we have now is echoes of uncertain policies and imposed restrictions against Russia.