Bitcoin Forum

... come a tumblein down"

This is awesome.  Come on $1.3 !!

I am enjoying it also. I will actually be holding out buying any. I do not think at this point we will bounce back to $3.00. I think that the smart money people know this and would be buying them all up now in the anticipation of it going back to 3.00.

It is a about time now we broke down into the $1.00 range. 

In the past, when that moron who put up the 50K bitwall at $2.00, that was a more safer buy. But right now,  nothing is holding back a huge downward decline.

Down it will fall to a new low.

Like I have been saying all along, the only thing constant with bitcoin lately is that the price will fall.

Even I have my doubts about it dropping below $2.00, but I should know that nothing will hold the price from falling lower. It is simple economics, 7500 bitcoins a day coming to the market, and not many buyers willing to support all those new bitcoins.

Soon we will actually be able to use bitcoin for purposes other than hording them like they are babe ruths rookie cards.

and why should they become more usable with a lower and lower price?

About the walls - not quite shure what to make of it myself.

Part of me is feeling happy that the walls where arrested for moving to much.

And now that the bitcoins have changed hands I really hope that with ownership
a feeling of community responsibility has been transfered.

Personally if some is in Bitcoin for the Dollar or Euro or whatever you are missing the point.
Yes - it can do that, too.
For me with Bitcoin i am holding something I considere freedom.
Like cities where providing freedom in the middle ages and money
is the new feudal lord.
Freedom for the reason it is the first currency i volunterilly associate with,
without any law or guns or power behind it on any continent.

Freedom is just the absence of aversive control.  It has nothing to do with how anyone feels emotionally about the currency, commodity or its "community".  Emotion is human demise.

Do you think anyone felt strongly about preserving the goodness and utility and whatever else of the dollar when it was invented?  If they did, they became poor.  The intelligent who have a will to power understand that tools to achieve that end are simply that:  tools.

and you tell me you do not feel your will to power?

Definition seems to be limitation

whenever i hear "just that" I also secretly add "and more"

tool indeed

Eh, take it up with B.F. Skinner, it's his definition.

All signs point to...wrong.

http://we.lovebitco.in/images/20111114203906_goingup.png

Yes, because for the past 6 months, after very large drops, we haven't later dropped below the previous low.  I'm sure THIS is the reversal.  Yay!

Edit:  Haha, and there we go.  You guys got played.

XD

Now the question, if by observing, did I affect it? Did my post make people say "huh, time for profit taking?"

Watching live there are 1500BTC single purchase volumes going on. The only thing I got played for is I was looking for another .1 out of my $2.2 BTC. Then I've got a bunch of $2.4 BTC, which was my long standing 'that's ridiculously cheap' buy order that the mystery seller gave me.

Here we go again.

This guy is a huge donkey.

I lol'd! :D

This is exciting! Don't go to sleep!

it looks to me like we slowly climb to 3.xx dollars Aaaaannnd PooF it falls, we slowly climb to 3.xx dollars Aaaaannnd PooF it gone,

this leads me to believe 1 by 1 the miners that were hording their coins see 3.xx$ as a good price to jump ship.

we will portly see this happen many times for the next few months.... 3.12 Aaaand Poof it falls.

$2 will be the new $3 soon enough.

and then 1$ will become the new $2
and then .50$ will be the new 1$
and then .... well then ill buy 1000 and 1,000,000 people will all try to do the same thing.
and then 3$ will become the new 2$
and then 4$ will become the new 3$

you have been around since april, all posts I saw from you rallying against bitcoin. either you are really really bored or you have missed the opportunity to buy when prices were low and now are angry about that and want price to drop so you can buy in at the low price you missed before. or did you sell out too early?

at what price will you change strategy? at what price will you buy lots of bitcoins and start rallying pro btc?

if my theory is wrong please let me know why you keep on posting against bitcoin. I am sure a lot of other people are wondering, too.

I'm just making observations and hanging around to watch this thing die out.

Suit yourself and get very comfortable. You will be around longer than you might expect.

I'm counting on it.  I'm sure the after party will be just as entertaining.

When that day comes I invite you to a drink

He's gone from bitcoin fanatic to realist, a change quite a few more people could stand to make.  He's also been 100% correct. 

He has, but his attitude does, as they say on the interwebs, "smack of butthurt".

That sort of attitude doesn't help anyone, probably not even the drowning ego it emanates from.

Neither do the permabulls, who are constantly saying it can never drop any further, which is much more harmful if you are taking into account that people may listen and buy in, and lose their investment. 

..but they have santa manipulator on their side.

... sometimes.

yes, sometimes.

if he pulls back his huge walls now, price will be at least below $1.8. i saw how the bidwalls looke before he pulled up his insane 1.000.000 BTC-buy wall, it looked even shittier than the askwalls in this moment (and they look like shit).

whoever thinks this is the lowest point of bitcoin: this walls are 95% fake. we all saw them appear out of nowhere, they simply do not reflect the real demand of bitcoins. be warned, it will fall further.

THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

I do not understand people that are willing to sell at 1.8

I will not even sell at 2.5

The walls are starting to shift around again. It's only small movements at the moment, but the bids are sinking and the asks are slowly rising. The asks are looking VERY steep now in comparison with the bids... they could be real bids, but the way they are bobbing around it really is hard to know.

Considering the lackluster demand over the past 24 hours, a number of failed rallies, in addition to the RSI being at about 70, the MCAD predicting a downwards reversal, and trading happening at the upper range of the bollinger band for about 12 hours...

This all adds up to only one thing in my mind. We are going back to the $2 mark at some stage today.

Yep, I was right. The rally seems to be over. People are starting to unload.

I agree.  This'll be fun to watch again.

This might be true again, but I more and more doubt it. Bitcoin prices more more and more away from the downtrendlines and there is an upward explosion to come.

It might be from yet another low, or never go below 2 $ at all any more.

But whatever the short term wiggles are, an upward explosion will come soon and create a huge short squeeze.

I agree that regardless of how it plays out, we're getting close to a reversal. We might have one more crash or a triple bottom at $2 but in the end it's likely to result in a reversal.

Unlike some people here think, most Bitcoin traders/investors that are currently in the game are not there to exit the market, they are either profiting from short term trading regardless of what direction the price is going, or they are waiting to buy back in. We're getting closer and closer to the point where people are ready to board the train again.

It would be nice to know how it'll play out, if I just had a crystal ball telling me if it's going to crash once more or triple bottom... :)

You are so right.
One way to play this could be to position with  a portion already now and buy the rest either (i) if prices go down to 2$ or a bit below one more time, or (ii) rally without ever revisiting 2 $.

In any case, the next rally will be huge in percentage terms.

Evidence? Sources? Besides your ass please, I deem that uncredible.

I'm sorry to say that I have no empiric evidence to support this but I can tell you how I've come to this conclusion.

1) I simply feel this way from looking at it from my perspective. I've basically been "all out" for a while now because I lost faith in positive price development. But I'm still bullish on Bitcoin in general, the fundamentals of Bitcoin haven't taken a turn for the worse, in fact I'm more bullish than ever as far as Bitcoin's future is concerned. In other words, I'm one of those waiting to buy back in.

2) From the discussions in this forum I have come to a strong conclusion that with the exception of a few doomsday bears such as Nagle, most bears are actually not bears as far as Bitcoin itself is concerned. They simply think there has been a massive bubble and that the price hasn't been sustainable, which in hindsight has actually been very smart thinking.

3) Even with all the crap that has gone on in the Bitcoin-world, the general opinion on Bitcoin is still that it's a promising technology. I've read a lot of comments from sites, for example Slashdot which has published all the big news regarding Bitcoin, the comments over there are more positive than negative.

4) A recent thread in this forum (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=52309.0) asked a question: "Are you trading for FIAT or BTC profit?" Although for most people it's not black and white, the poll is currently at 31.7% FIAT, 58.5% BTC. The rest goes to option C) Hedging against price drops. This means that most people in the community are trying to get more BTC and I'm one of those. I have set aside a certain amount of FIAT to invest in Bitcoin for very-long-term and once I feel it's smart to enter a long position again, I'll buy in.

So I can't say anything for certain because I don't know what's actually happening, but I'm fairly certain that I'm on the right track.

http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/6168/36926905.png

It's getting vicious...

The sudden rise of the sell walls near the asking price and the steps leads me to believe someone is trying to drive the price down. I really am starting to believe we have 2 manipulators who are pitted against each other right now.

Those walls didnt last long. Guess we are in for an interesting ride again here.

... if mr. m pulls the plug out, prices will be at 1.5 or something..

there are maybe 20k to 40k real bid walls, but the rest is mr. M and his little helpers.

im getting little bit nervous since the trading signals tell me: hold/buy, but the fake-walls tell me: sell! .. and that is exactly what i am commited at the moment: im short on bitcoinica.

Can anyone care to explain to me why you talk about fake-walls?

I can see myself that they are moving. Thats however could
a strategy change of someone who believes he can get a better deal.

But if at anypoint a early adopter sells the entire wall away
it would have been a real wall - or am i getting something wrong here?

Yes one could sell into them with one large order.
Just look closely of how steep the wall is. It's a confidence game the steeper the higher risk that someone will sell into it but also higher effectiveness of pushing the price.

The whole point of the walls is to get better deals from the suckers who put in higher orders.
And the real irony is: That wall can be converted to a bitcoinica margin requirement in a second.

But this would dry up the markets completely, atm.

A smart way to outsmart him could be to place bids BELOW his Bidwalls, not above :-)

Here is what the order book could look like! Edited about 80k of what I believe are "The Manipulators" bids out!
http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8614/nomanipulator.png

Haha. I did something similar a few days ago to estimate non-manipulator demand.
It looks healthy enough to me to be honest, if we are excluding manipulation in either direction that is.
Slightly higher demand than supply - would suggest a slow upwards creep.

That's what I was thinking too! Though, I have seen that this indicator doesn't hold up too well in this market.
It could however, explain the slight upward pressure we've been seeing today.

I'd be willing to bet that a few of those ask walls also belong to manipulators. Did you cut those down at all or just leave them the way they were? (edit: nvm, just checked mtgoxlive. you left it alone). This could mean that the supply might be overrepresented too, meaning an even healthier overall situation.

I think this would actually be a halfway decent indicator of medium to long term price movement. Or at least as good as any of the technical indicators anyway. The manipulators are all about the short term swings. The long term movements will occur independent of what they do.

Maybe there could be a way to quantify the depth of any market manipulation by analyzing with some kind of bot the size of any walls that are actively moving as they are pulled and replaced. I think you might be on to something...

Nope! Just the bid side! I feel he isn't trying to keep the price down at the moment. So, any ask walls of his are probably real.

It is likely though that there is more than 1 manipulator in the game. There is at least one bearish manipulator and one bullish manipulator and they seem to be playing a high stakes tug-of-war game.

If you watch mtgoxlive when there are big movements, you can see large asks being pulled as the price rises in the same way that you see large bids being pulled when it falls. It could be the cumulative result of individual actors hoping for better prices though... but equally, that could explain some the bid-side 'manipulation' too.

I noted earlier there appears to be more than one manipulator in the game right now and they are working against each other. As one would raise the bid walls, the other would raise the ask walls which gave us stability for quite some time. Of course this could be the collective movements of several people but with the size of the walls it at least appears to be a couple of big players.

I would agree. It is unlikely to be due to cumulative market actions, as the walls disappear and reappear too quickly and neatly in their new positions for it to be caused by smaller individual traders.

The existence of a bearish manipulator is often not considered though. I think it is a huge oversight to dismiss this possibility, because that would mean that some of the downward movements could well be due to bearish manipulation and a desire to buy coins more cheaply, in the same way that the bullish manipulator has a desire for price rises because he wants to sell higher.

Anyway, I try not to worry too much about the manipulators' pathetic games because I am of the opinion that the long term movements will occur independently of what they do. Smaller traders just need to have balls of steel right now, bears and bulls alike, because large upwards movements spook the bears and large downwards movements leave the bulls paralyzed. And these large movements can be achieved easily at the moment. This will change over time as bitcoin becomes more widely adopted and coins are distributed more evenly among market participants.

I have ZERO doubt that there are a few rather large players at work here. But, I think there is only one person/group/entity that has nearly bottomless pockets/wallets that can place 50k+ walls on either side or both, as we have seen a few months ago.


Absolutely! I was just showing the balance. We may actually be at an equilibrium. The price remains fairly stable... for now!

Its a lot of fun seeing one manipulator raise bid walls when they want to get rid of coins and the other manipulator raise the ask wall simaltaneous as to say f**k you lol. Definitely more than one big player at work for anyone watching MTGox live. Either that or one really dumb big player.

It's pretty difficult to understand their true motives. I've been trying hard to understand the psychological games they are playing.

The bullish manipulator wants price increases so he can ultimately SELL high.
He puts up bid walls, sells, then pulls his walls and causes panic to buy back lower.
Meaning he is actually a bear in bulls clothing.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Wall-Street-Gary-Varvel.jpg

The bearish manipulator wants price decreases so he can ultimately BUY low.
He buys a little, puts up ask walls, sells then drives the price down, and buys in again at a cheaper rate.
He is likely in fact to be a bull at heart.

http://grace.kingedwardltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/bull-bear.jpg

And then again, it could be just as likely that NEITHER of them care one way or the other about the long term direction bitcoin will take, and instead are doing this solely for fiat profit, slowly sucking market capital away while retaining their existing bitcoin holdings.

It's so damn confusing.

Whatever the motives, there are now 126 000 BTC in the bid walls supporting $2. That's a massive amount, there are only a few people in the world who could single handedly sell through those walls. Not that I think the walls are legit, probably most of them aren't. But even if some are, it's a tough challenge for the sellers.

I'm fairly bullish right now and I'm starting to think that there's maybe a 60% chance that we did hit triple bottom and we will not see $1.x anymore. This makes the current price an excellent re-entry point for whatever strategy, mine happens to be of the very-long kind.

However I still think that it's smart to have a fallback strategy in case a crash to $1.5 is imminent.

An update. There are now 135 000 BTC supporting $2. I have never seen anything like this and I believe there have never been such walls in the history of BTC trading. Not that it proves anything, but I feel it does matter.

On the other hand, walls of the sellers have shrunk. There is only around $85 000 worth of BTC from the current price to $2.8. For comparison, the bid walls supporting $2 are worth approximately $285 000.

The selling pressure required to sell into those walls and to pressure the fake walls to disappear is so massive at this point that it feels almost like an impossible challenge. Especially taking into account that most traders are probably holding more USD than BTC at the moment. I would bet my net worth that there are more USD on the sidelines waiting to buy, than there are BTC waiting to sell. We don't really have a way to find out, but anyway.

Triple bottom, anyone?

Personally I'm expecting an incredible Thanksgiving show.

If there was more activity I would be more optimistic.  I expected more of a spike, but it isn't happening and people are gonna get nervous soon.  I'm also expecting a lot of those walls to drop when the price gets closer, in anticipation of new lows and lower buy ins. 

The spike you're talking about just happened.

Yep, turkey's not gonna be the centerpiece of this thanksgiving for me...

"Aaaaaaand the waaaallllls..."

...are building. Pushing back down.

the walls will come the walls will go
where bitcoin goes our actions show

-  St. Flow

Wall comes in, wall comes out.
Never a miscommunication.
You can't explain that.

Here's one in that traditional 5-7-5 format:

Manipulator
Building and destroying walls
Place all bets with care