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Title: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on December 02, 2019, 02:28:20 AM UPDATE: 2021-05-09
REKT! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206137.msg56968129#msg56968129) Who would have guessed? ::) UPDATE: 2020-04-21 Ok, so it's been fairly quiet since Arakne failed in spectactular fashion at the beginning of Feb... but you can now follow along as I try EDIT: 2019-12-30 So the "month" has ended... and after a nice little gain to start, the bot got #rekt. Firstly, by "manipulation" ::) ::)... resulting in a stoploss being triggered and a 30% loss of balance (ending in a -18% overall). Then more recently, an early Christmas "present"... A giant lump of coal! :-\ a 2nd massive loss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206137.msg53474723#msg53474723), this one due to some pretty broken bot mechanics! Anyway, as per my explanation here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206137.msg53475877#msg53475877), I figure I may as well just let it run... and will continue to update once (if? ???) the bot is back online. Backstory: Ok, so I somewhat stumbled across this service (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5182103.0) due to the bunfight between TMAN and the Service Owner. I think I originally followed a link from the "shit post" thread? Anyway, I digress... so after some (possibly ill advised) alcohol consumption, the old gambler in me was itching for something new. Rather than focus on somewhat ludicrous claims from backtests (I've never been a real fan of such things) and what I perceive to be possible language difficulties and personality conflicts (and with LoyceV's 10 month Altcoin experiment on hiatus)... I decided the "best"(??!?) way forward was to just "roll the dice" and see if it works :P :-X So, without further ado, welcome to the first month of "HCP's Initial Setup: The original service thread has been filled with claims and counter-claims (and what I would deem to be "BadMaths"™), so I did some napkin math of my own and decided that the "minimum" investment amount of $100 wasn't going to cut it, as (should be obvious to anyone that can do basic math) the returns would quickly be eaten by the 30% commission and $10/month VPS fee... you'd need be making at least 15% a month in GROSS profit just to cover both of those... for the math impaired: 15% of $100 = $15... -30% ($4.50) commission = $10.50 - $10 VPS = 0.50c NET profit... ::) ::) ::) Hardly what one would consider a "stellar" return on investment! :P So, partly because I like round numbers and partly because that was what I had laying around and partly because I figured I could afford to lose that much without being tooooo upset about it, I decided that I would commit 0.1BTC (around US$735 at the time of deposit) as the initial investment... and paid the US$10 VPS (0.00133645BTC) up front. Setup was relatively easy... I just needed to signup for a BitMEX account, deposit the initial amount, create an "order only" API key and then pay the VPS fee (via Coinify I believe). There was a slight delay in getting setup because the bot was already in "trade mode" but as it turns out, that actually worked out in my favour ;) Basically, because I was fucking about getting all my stuff sorted and asking questions, it seems like I got "lucky" and the bot was already in the middle of the "loss" trade that the other users encountered a few days ago, so my account wasn't setup until after that had finished. #blindDumbLuck The purpose of this thread (similar to what guigui371 has done in the service thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5182103.msg53234252#msg53234252)) is an effort to document the performance of the bot, from a "basic" starting position of 0.1BTC... I'll be looking at posting semi-regular updates, with little if anything in the way of judgement. I'm happy for the numbers to speak for themselves... "warts and all", wins and losses etc. Current Results: Daily Results: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zof7J.png Overall Results: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zoJaC.png So, after 3 days of trading my account is 17% up... 0.01772045BTC ~= US$134 GROSS (~= US$84 ~= 11% NET profit with commission and VPS accounted for). A positive start. Will be interesting to see where I am at the end of my month :P #fingersCrossed NOTES: - Deposit was made on Nov 29, but Bot was only setup and running on Nov 30th in my timezone UTC+13. - It seems there is something wierd in the display of dates by BitMEX... today is Dec 2nd UTC+13, so not sure how BitMEX is already in Dec 3rd??!? ??? ??? ??? - I am aware that some users DO NOT have to pay the VPS fee due to special promo's and deals... I am NOT one of those users, nor does it appear that this deal is currently available (I asked when signing up), so the VPS fee will be included in all my calculations until such time that the "$50 monthly commission == Free VPS" rule kicks in. - I have been advised that there are likely to be a few minor 0.000000xx BTC "losses" incurred from time to time due to a problem with the BitMEX API. My understanding of this problem is that if you don't trigger the API at least once in a 24hr period, it can become unresponsive and "freeze", meaning that the bot will no longer be able to function properly. The end result is that on days when the Bot is not trading, there needs to be a small instant "buy/sell" type trade just to keep the API "active". Again, this is my interpretation of the issue and probably a bit oversimplified, so I apologise for any inaccuracies. As I said, going forward, I shall try to regularly post the results so there is some more "independent" data available to complement what guigui371 has already provided in the main service thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5182103.msg53234252#msg53234252). Also, I should point out, that I am a complete novice idiot when it comes to trading... I have no idea about margins, positions, leverage etc... The limit of my knowledge and trading has been at the level of "lets buy some BTC at $X... lets sell some BTC at $Y"... hopefully with X < Y! :P ;) So, don't be expecting any in-depth market analysis or pretty charts with lines drawn all over them claiming to predict the next pump or dump... it'll basically be some screenshots showing daily and overall results with the basic calculations of GROSS and NET profit as above ;) <insert disclaimer here about this being an independent project and should NOT be seen as an endorsement of either the service or the service owner. It is simply documenting the performance of the bot and I am not receiving any kickbacks or payments for doing so> Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: guigui371 on December 02, 2019, 03:54:03 AM Hey HCP,
This is an awsome thread. I was wondering if I should do one as well. As you may have read in the original thread I have posted the results of my journey too. My intent was not to defend the OP, nor to enroll people, but to see by myself if what he says is remotely true or not. It will be great to be able to cross reference our results. Now with 2 "independent" observers none of us will be flagged as a scammer. or OP's alt. The layout of your thread is great (bb code and / font ...). Do you mind if I use the same layout ? (with due credits, and link toward your original post). Cheers Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 02, 2019, 06:55:37 AM Do you mind if I use the same layout ? (with due credits, and link toward your original post). Sure... for a one off "licensing fee" of 0.1BTC :P ;DSeriously tho... Do what you like... I'd hardly call it a layout! I typed some stuff up, chucked in a couple of screenshots and used some bold, underline and some horizontal lines :P If you do create a new thread, either post a link here or PM me or something so I can add it in. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on December 02, 2019, 07:03:07 AM Finally someone trying the service before accusing me of scam, ponzi and all that good stuff i've been fighting for months.
THANKS EDIT: Hilarious seeing suchmoon meriting this thread, oooh lady, i've been enjoying so much our fights :-* Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: TMAN on December 02, 2019, 08:24:06 AM ~ Awesome, this is what I wanted. ~ 2 Gentlemen/women who's data I will trust implicitly, really looking forward to this and I do wish you both the best luck with the profits here. All it will take now is for CryptoSparks to shill the hell out of your real tests and he will turn himself into a profitable business as long as the profits come in for you both. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: buwaytress on December 02, 2019, 10:18:27 AM HCP, been a while since I saw you pop up on my screen like this. We're both gamblers, but likely in very different spheres of gambling that we don't end up meeting much;)
I've had that trading bot itch on occasion, just never scratched any of those itches for btc. Probably would have, if it didn't take too much of my time. Looking forward to your dailies (yes, please do dailies if possible, would like to see the entry/exit, durations of the trade too). GL P.S. 11% nett is pretty nifty so far, but I almost would always avoid something with such a seemingly high commission and cost. P.P.S. Hope people realise this is, after all, a gamble! Nothing less;) Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 03, 2019, 09:33:14 AM Looking forward to your dailies (yes, please do dailies if possible, would like to see the entry/exit, durations of the trade too). Daily's aren't necessarily worthwhile... There are some days where the bot remains in "stasis" (as the dev calls it)... Basically, the bot is looking for favourable conditions before activating and starting to trade. It could be several days before more action. In the meantime, all you'd see would be the 0.000000xx BTC "insta-trades" to prevent the "API death" bug as mentioned in the OP.Quote P.S. 11% nett is pretty nifty so far, but I almost would always avoid something with such a seemingly high commission and cost. It's certainly at the higher end of what I am "comfortable" with commission-wise... But it literally is ZERO effort/knowledge required. People talk about "longs" and "shorts"... To me those are different length pants! :PWho knows... Maybe if he gets enough users, the commission rates might come down? ;) Quote P.P.S. Hope people realise this is, after all, a gamble! Nothing less;) Exactly... Nothing is guaranteed...But hoping for the best obviously! ;)Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 05, 2019, 01:11:04 AM Ok... so today didn't start well (a wakeup call at 0550 from crewing calling me in for a standby duty)... and it got even worse when I looked at the notifications on my phone :-\
Seems the bot decided that a "short" was the way to go... just before some whales decided to have some fun and the market spiked like a mofo and jumped like US$600-800 :o which triggered the stop-loss at "max 30% loss" :'( The net result is that the 17% gains from the first 5 days of trading... just got crushed and are now an overall 20% loss :-\ #bugger The Trade History from Today: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zoHUP.png The Order History from Today: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zoSRq.png Which gives us the daily PNL: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zoZ1j.png And the Overall: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zoneG.png So, there we are... -19.96% overall... that's going to take a while to turn around. I know some of the bot users are taking this opportunity to "re-fund" their accounts and deposit more... I guess this is an attempt to recover their loses by making more $$$ on any % gains that the bot makes over the next few weeks. I basically need to make 25% gains from my present position (0.08BTC) to get back to break even (0.1BTC). On previous bot history, that is going to take ~2-3 months. I guess this little "experiment" is going to run a little longer than I had initially hoped! :P ::) PS. It's not all bad... Liverpool stomped Everton 5-2 in the Merseyside Derby today (https://www.premierleague.com/news/1514819) :D Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: mk4 on December 05, 2019, 02:44:23 AM I guess this little "experiment" is going to run a little longer than I had initially hoped! :P ::) Well, to be fair, it's a one month long experiment in the first place. ;D Most probably going to take more than a month to make up the losses though, and that's assuming almost everything goes well. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: pooya87 on December 05, 2019, 05:29:22 AM could you please also add an ELI5 of the strategy that the bot is using to make this profit. i checked the main thread, it only had a simple 2 line explanation inside a picture that didn't have that much details.
it seems like the bot is using some sort of martingale "gambling" strategy and it also seems to me like it only performs well when the market is moving in a fixed direction (eg. from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4) and makes small profits during that time but if there is any change in the direction or any kind of volatility (eg. Dec. 4) it fails and leads to a big loss. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 05, 2019, 07:37:37 AM could you please also add an ELI5 of the strategy that the bot is using to make this profit. Honestly... I don't really know... so can't really give you any real details of the strategy. The owner keeps all of that confidential, as is his prerogative I suppose.My understanding is that it supposedly has some custom coded "algorithms" that search for various trading patterns and attempts to jump in and try to make some small gains. It does both "shorts" and "longs" depending on what it thinks the market is about to do. It is setup to "stop-loss" at max 30%... as we witnessed today ::) Quote it seems like the bot is using some sort of martingale "gambling" strategy This seems to be what people are saying... and what it looks like with the increasing "bets" ;)Quote ... and it also seems to me like it only performs well when the market is moving in a fixed direction (eg. from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4) and makes small profits during that time but if there is any change in the direction or any kind of volatility (eg. Dec. 4) it fails and leads to a big loss. I guess it depends. The bot doesn't constantly trade or necessarily trade on any given day. As I said, my understanding is that there are some certain "triggers" that it uses to determine whether or not conditions are favourable to start trading.It would seem to be a case of "bad timing"™ today with the pump and dump that occurred that screwed things up. The bot initially saw this 331m volume drop: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zo2QI.png and then got rekt by an 803m volume pump: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zoUfd.png As you say, it's been quite volatile today: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zoa85.png I'll keep posting the trades and results... and we'll see where we end up. But if anyone has any requests for specific data/screenshots etc, feel free to ask and I'll do my best to accommodate your requests. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: suchmoon on December 05, 2019, 06:18:52 PM could you please also add an ELI5 of the strategy that the bot is using to make this profit. i checked the main thread, it only had a simple 2 line explanation inside a picture that didn't have that much details. it seems like the bot is using some sort of martingale "gambling" strategy and it also seems to me like it only performs well when the market is moving in a fixed direction (eg. from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4) and makes small profits during that time but if there is any change in the direction or any kind of volatility (eg. Dec. 4) it fails and leads to a big loss. That's pretty much it. There is no magic and unlike dice gambling this uses 20x leverage so it only needs a very small move (like ~$200 in this example) in the wrong direction to fuck it up. Given BTC volatility, do you really want to gamble against it moving $200 in the wrong direction? This also shows that CryptoSparks basically faked the backtest (at best made the "strategy" fit historical data) to make the line look so smooth up-and-up. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: Vispilio on December 08, 2019, 06:43:04 AM ... This also shows that CryptoSparks basically faked the backtest (at best made the "strategy" fit historical data) to make the line look so smooth up-and-up. Unfortunately for Arakne (and its current subscribers), this is a good point. One of the fundamental weaknesses of any backtest is curve fitting and over optimization bias, where the strategy producer adjusts the parameters to produce the absolute best results for a given set of data points, which does not necessarily provide any real trading edge, but simply provides a coincidental configuration for excellent results over a given past time period... Contrary to popular opinion, however, Cryptosparks is a smart guy and has some strong insights into algorithmic trading :), so I hope these live experiments by veteran BTT users can be a good opportunity for him to enhance his trading and developing skills. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: LoyceV on December 08, 2019, 08:22:27 AM 30% commission If the bot would be as good as the owner claims, he wouldn't need to ask for commission, he'd just keep the bot for himself and get his many-times-return each year.He now makes a risk-free 30%, while the bot-users risk their funds. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 09, 2019, 04:36:38 AM He now makes a risk-free 30%, while the bot-users risk their funds. Well, he only gets commission if the users actually make a (monthly) profit... if it's a loss, he gets nothing. So, theoretically at least, it is in the bot creators best interests to make sure that the bot works and generates profits.Also, just as an update, the bot has been quiet the last few days... no trading to speak of since the big loss (excluding the daily API bug workaround instatrades for 0.000000xx btc). Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: PrimeNumber7 on December 09, 2019, 05:59:10 AM - I have been advised that there are likely to be a few minor 0.000000xx BTC "losses" incurred from time to time due to a problem with the BitMEX API. My understanding of this problem is that if you don't trigger the API at least once in a 24hr period, it can become unresponsive and "freeze", meaning that the bot will no longer be able to function properly. The end result is that on days when the Bot is not trading, there needs to be a small instant "buy/sell" type trade just to keep the API "active". Again, this is my interpretation of the issue and probably a bit oversimplified, so I apologise for any inaccuracies. could you please also add an ELI5 of the strategy that the bot is using to make this profit. Honestly... I don't really know... so can't really give you any real details of the strategy. The owner keeps all of that confidential, as is his prerogative I suppose.My understanding is that it supposedly has some custom coded "algorithms" that search for various trading patterns and attempts to jump in and try to make some small gains. It does both "shorts" and "longs" depending on what it thinks the market is about to do. It is setup to "stop-loss" at max 30%... as we witnessed today ::) Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 09, 2019, 06:27:27 AM This seems like a pretty big problem on either the part of Bitmex, or the bot creator. There shouldn't be any reason why a VPS shouldn't be able to connect to an API endpoint given it has a valid API key/can authenticate. I believe it is an issue with a particular endpoint of the API and the fact that the bot doesn't trade every single day... bot owner explained it here:Note that the negative PNLs of 0.0001 mBTC ( 0.001$ loss) are created by instant 1 contracts trades necessary to escape a bug in the bitmex websocket's position endpoint. After several days without trades, the position value restores and the endpoint returns error when trying to access it. This causes the bots to crash. What's the solution until bitmex fixes the problem? Make instant 1 contract trades to unlock the endpoint. That 0.001$ loss is the fee paid as taker(necessary to close the "unlock trade" in less than 1 second) and the mathematical loss that come from the 0.5$ of spread between the ask and the bid. I'm unsure as to why BitMEX have not fixed this... or if there is anything else that can be done to work around the problem... in any case, the "losses" from this are ~20 sats per non-trading day... it's not what you would call "huge"... even an entire year of non-trading would only incur around 7300 sats of losses... Quote If you are running a program on a VPS you have access to, you should be able to review the code to see what triggers the bot to make various trades, and have an idea as to what strategy(ies) it is using. There is no 'guaranteed' way to make money trading, and different strategies will have different success in various trading environments. You pay for the VPS, but you don't have access to it... that is how the owner is protecting his "IP".Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: buwaytress on December 09, 2019, 08:26:36 PM OK, so I finally understood that it is a mini-martingale tactic going on in there under the hood. Which I suppose could work out to be a brilliant strategy if you have a big bankroll at high leverage -- precisely what BitMEX allows. But if you're not redepositing (I take it you're not), then the experiment isn't similar to what the owner would otherwise recommend right?
P.S. Did not realise you were a Reds supporter. Funny how all our betting/trading/gambling (they're not all the same are they?;) ) all seem much better when we win eh? Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: suchmoon on December 09, 2019, 09:10:48 PM Well, he only gets commission if the users actually make a (monthly) profit... if it's a loss, he gets nothing. So, theoretically at least, it is in the bot creators best interests to make sure that the bot works and generates profits. If the bot person would refund 30% on losses - that would be a decent incentive. Otherwise he doesn't risk anything. And he certainly doesn't care about customer relations, so you can't say the incentive would be retention or anything like that. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: squatter on December 09, 2019, 10:23:58 PM He now makes a risk-free 30%, while the bot-users risk their funds. Well, he only gets commission if the users actually make a (monthly) profit... if it's a loss, he gets nothing. So, theoretically at least, it is in the bot creators best interests to make sure that the bot works and generates profits.The pricing model suggests that he expects short-term profitable periods that he can extract rent from, but that he isn't confident about long term profitability. If the bot were consistently profitable, he wouldn't want to give away 70% of the profits by licensing it out. He could get rich by compounding gains instead. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 13, 2019, 06:24:05 PM Not much going on for the last week since the big loss.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zhBWT.png As we can see... just the daily 0.000000xx btc trade to prevent the API bug from crashing the bot. NOTE: There was an attempted trade around the 9th, but the "entry points" didn't get hit (market maker bot)... which was a shame, as it was an attempted short and the price dumped by a couple of hundred and would have made a nice profit ::) ::) Since then, the bot creator has added a 7th algorithm to the bot to try and prevent a repeat of the 30% loss... apparently this change will mean that the bot is a bit more conservative and likely to trade less often, but is theoretically "safer"... it will also likely mean a reduced return given the lower trading frequency... :-\ #timeWillTell Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 19, 2019, 02:17:13 AM "All quiet on the western front"...
Since the big loss... there has been no trading. https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zh1i8.png That's pretty much 2 weeks of no activity now. :-\ Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: Steamtyme on December 19, 2019, 08:09:53 PM That sucks, I was hoping to see a decent comeback especially given the moves we've seen happen since then. I'm only weighing in on this experience but it looks like this is what the testing phase should look like. that's the time for tweaking. I'm still rooting for your gamble here that you come out ahead or at least closer to even, but it's gotta take a shot for that to happen.
Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: o_e_l_e_o on December 29, 2019, 10:57:38 AM Any update on this HCP?
guigui371 was also running the same experiment. It seems he had a similar period of inactivity before the bot woke up again on Christmas Eve and made another poor trade for another large loss. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206217.msg53468359#msg53468359) I assume you have therefore suffered similar losses. Furthermore, CryptoSparks' last post was 2 weeks ago, and he locked his thread to prevent any more criticism of his bot. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: ChuckBuck on December 29, 2019, 04:46:50 PM If the bot person would refund 30% on losses - that would be a decent incentive. Otherwise he doesn't risk anything. And he certainly doesn't care about customer relations, so you can't say the incentive would be retention or anything like that. I am interested in your thoughts :D In fact, bot creators will never refund you if the investor loses money, it's a safe way to work, just make sure he is always profitable and doesn't lose any money. But if he can refund 30% of the loss, he must be more responsible and his bot must be more efficient. It helps ensure the quality of bot, this case is mutually beneficial, on the other hands, it also helps him to compete easily with others to provide trading bots. Just an interesting idea that I think OP should consider to apply in your service. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: PrimeNumber7 on December 29, 2019, 09:24:26 PM "All quiet on the western front"... I would say that two weeks of no trading pretty much means he is a scammer IMO, considering the other facts. This is disappointing because I somewhat stuck my neck out for him, and it turns out I was wrong. Since the big loss... there has been no trading. [img width=600 ]https://i.imgur.com/F8gIgRC.png[/img] That's pretty much 2 weeks of no activity now. :-\ I don’t think it would be terribly difficult to design a bot as described by him, although I am not sure anyone with the technical skills to do so would be selling the bot for what he was selling access to it for. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 30, 2019, 12:04:39 AM Any update on this HCP? Yeah, sorry... been working pretty hard over the Xmas break. guigui371 was also running the same experiment. It seems he had a similar period of inactivity before the bot woke up again on Christmas Eve and made another poor trade for another large loss. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206217.msg53468359#msg53468359) I assume you have therefore suffered similar losses. Pretty much... it was a total shit show... as I'm lead to believe, their were FOUR different outcomes which was apparently dependent on what VPS your bot was running on??!? ??? So, some users ended up with a 1% win... some users got hammered for a 30% loss... and a couple of results inbetween.I ended up with a ~25% (-0.01943218 BTC) loss... for a total loss now of -BTC 0.03928640 (-39.29%) since my original 0.1 BTC deposit on Nov 28: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zhRPH.png The bot was taken offline for maintenance... and hasn't been trading since. https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zhTjg.png Seems that those on a "good" VPS, ended up with a trade being filled (for a couple of small amounts like "139" and "143")... and a (fairly reasonable) stoploss set around -$300 ($7238) from the market rate at the time (was around $7500-7600)... those on "bad" VPS, didn't... and turned in the small 1% profit. The market then dropped, and sat there for around 12 hours or so... bouncing around the $7300 mark... which in and of itself, wasn't exactly a bad thing... what WAS a bad thing however, was the bot deciding that it needed to go "full retard" and launched into massive 25x leverage trade within $70 of the previous stop loss that was still active!!?! :o :o :o :o You can see here how the bot decided that we suddenly needed close to "13,000" worth of contracts at prices within $70-$90 of the existing stoploss at $7238, and how everything got dumped when it inevitably got triggered: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zhtOI.png Obviously, in a market as volatile as BTC... trading so close to a stoploss like that is asking for trouble... and inevitably, the stop loss from the earlier trade got triggered... which then liquidated EVERYTHING ::) ::) ::) Cue massive losses. :-\ If the bot hadn't opened that "new" position... the loss would have only been ~ -0.00100000 BTC... inside we got slaughtered and much much much MUCH "salt" on the Telegram group... and eventually this response/"explanation" from CryptoSparks: Quote from: Bot Owner on Telegram Chat Hello people, looks like we got an ugly Christmas gift but still an interesting one. It took me a while to read all logs of all bots so here is what happened. NOTE: CryptoSparks has announced that all users will get next months VPS "free" due to the large amount of maintenance this month and no active trading etc.After closing 3 exits in the 7.5k-7.6k area with +1% profit, some users suffered total and then partial VPS slowdowns caused by attacks on vps provider’s servers, that made them take a separate road. A missing entry fill allowed some users to close this trade in just a few minutes and go in stasis with full profit. Others got that extra fill but delay in placing exit caused a missing exit and stayed in the trade with extra risk. Remember that Arakne’s trade ends when last contract is dropped, so a missed fill, may that be an entry or an exit, can influence the final outcome. Anyway price collapses and we get stuck in a low risk (1%-2%) long at 7.5k. But our stop holds the bart until detected support formation and breakout from it at 7.3k which Arakne bought and averaged down our entry from 7.5 to 7.3 so we could have exited on the 7.4k impulse. Problem was that when entries were added, stop was still considered strong so no update was needed. When the stop algorithm detected possible shakeout, we were already filled at max risk capacity and attempts to edit the stop in a safe zone failed. The shakeout got our stop for 20$ right before starting the 7.4k “scheduled” impulse that triggered our strong adds. OUCH! YES, Arakne uses some martingale mechanics, but in a controlled way to average the entry and avoid getting trapped in a trade. That’s actually common among marketmakers, and whatever you like it or not you can have FULL CONTROL on the risk. Long term users may have noticed how Arakne’s avg entry is always a key level in the market range, it simply how markets work. That’s why Arakne starts with leverage BELLOW 1 and reaches max 25 out of 100. We rarely go above 8, but being able to reach 25 is like having always one last ace to play when trapped in a trade. This time Arakne failed in playing it well, because indeed needed to add to position but also to increase stop size. NO, is just not true that Arakne makes only small wins. For example the day before the first loss we had a +15%. NO, is just not true that Arakne only makes big losses. Here the loss list of current version since 2018: 0 -1.0239223164147369 1 -7.770849221211668 2 -6.0998134976693805 3 -1.9440504813533817 4 -2.915077465267908 5 -4.060302922521566 6 -1.7726049435660876 7 -3.7430129787980335 8 -14.309137251004552 9 -6.345744077310631 10 -0.009555729922808811 11 -1.652253475973144 12 -1.8721211623094127 13 -1.9481837015325076 14 -8.124456834850443 15 -23.46791646786238 THE PROBLEM with last trade is how savagely she went in buying 7.3 without FIRST updating the stop at 7238 and taking that extra life space mandatory after surviving Bitcoin dipping. The shit happened for a combination of factors such as: - strong long breakout detected with several supports to buy but at relatively small spread from each other . - small spread from stop - big spread from entry - several algos approving the call result is that risk was prioritised in averaging down the entry FIRST at all costs. How algorithms gets their priority is highly based on settings managed by machine learning. So i understand you guys are mad because she went crazy near the stop, but the function to increase stop size was there, if she chose not to use it means that statistically in the past that move worked. When shakeout alarm triggered it was already too late and got stuck in that stop. So we are talking about a missing logic part. She needs a way to increase stop when maxed out or the flow stops there, in another and more dangerous trap! Anyway Stop gets triggered by 20$ right before the impulse’s start to 7.4 that Arakne was expecting as our best chance for exiting the trade . And with the trade setup she was doing, the win would have been absolutely massive(above 30%). DOUBLE OUCH! The point of failure was that the probable shakeout signal triggered right after we hit max fill capacity, at that point she couldn’t put more risk on the table by moving the stop further. Getting shakedout is something we cannot ever RISK. So this scenario showed that we need an EMERGENCY TRAILING STOP algorithm that manages this risky situation where we needed to add in order to exit the trap but ALSO we urgently need to increase stop size without risking over the max drawdown allowed to avoid the shakeout. That is already being done by Arakne but with some mathematical limitations. Some fixes to the MM algorithm will make sure that in a way or another, we will 100% of times have the possibility to safely get some ‘survival space’ when is needed. There are different ways to achieve that, for example dropping some levels at loss and use that risk for increasing the stop and dynamically keep it at safety distance or “save some risk” for emergencies. And for the ones that say that i adjust graphs, look how the backtest engine shows the same loss. I bet that if a loss similar would have already happened in the 2 year of data analysed , the machine learning optimisation would have differed and so the trade result. Is about teaching the algorithms but without giving them too much freedom. WHAT NOW? Our vision is to make algorithmic trading accessible to everyone, and a couple losses will not prevent us from delivering the final goal, especially since both losses made the products better. You are free to leave and yell scam after a loss, but we are here to stay, this is just the beginning. We care about our users because our business model cannot succeed if users don’t succeed. That’s why most competitors ask for high entry fee while we will be a free to try SaaS. To further reward our early adopters, both losses that hit Arakne in december will be transformed in credit on our platform since day 1. Just register and send us your nickname in private to receive the credit, then connect different Bitmex accounts via API and spread the capital among all bots based on their risk indicator! With that free credit you will be able to safely recover and start grinding profit again. As for now you are 100% in one bot, as in any investment, differentiation is the key. Even though you have seen Arakne keeping 100% win rate for 3 months, trading is not about always winning but about managing risk properly over a long period of time. Last trade clearly showed a point of weakness in Arakne’s risk control that absolutely needs to be patched, that’s why i immediately put it in maintenance. Stay tuned for updates on launch date, meanwhile Arakne will get updated and be back running on your accounts in the next days, so no action is required until platform launch. Lastly I understand that losing this way is frustrating , but have some consistency. ZakZak just a couple weeks ago you sent me a beautiful message full of thanks and stuff like that, now Im not only a scammer but also the bot doesn’t exits ? Even tough the new Arakne will start on a new public trading journey, i will also let it manage the previous one account that after peaking at +57% is now down at -18% to demonstrate how recovery is not only possible but an inevitable consequence of proper risk management over long periods of time. A lot of users have pulled their funds and cancelled their API keys etc to cut their losses etc... and the bot is currently in "maintenance". But, I promised I was going to see this through (and I pretty much wrote my 0.1BTC off the moment I deposited it anyway :P), so my 0.06071360 BTC shall stay there, API keys are still active and we'll see how it all plays out. Who knows? Maybe I'll claw back my losses before next Christmas! ;D :D ::) :P NOTE: Basically, imho, the bot was/is "broken". Trading that close to the existing stoploss was reckless. I would not recommend that anyone put money into this bot (or "The Platform"™). Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: ChuckBuck on December 30, 2019, 03:51:43 AM So this test has paused with a loss -39,29% and another test ended with 39,10%. Obviously this is a bad outcome for anyone and what you and others get is just a free VPS next month ::) But why haven't you stopped while others have withdrawn, canceled the API key, etc ???. At least the result is that this bot is not reliable, you can lose the remaining money if you continue to operate with it.
Who knows? Maybe I'll claw back my losses before next Christmas! ;D :D ::) :P It is still a very long time until next year's Christmas, wish you get back more than what was lost ;)Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 30, 2019, 05:39:16 AM So this test has paused with a loss -39,29% and another test ended with 39,10%. Obviously this is a bad outcome for anyone and what you and others get is just a free VPS next month ::) "paused" only because the bot has been taken offline... and I have zero control over the bot. The last "update" from the bot creator was this:Quote Arakne is in maintenance , will be back online on the next hours That was nearly 14 hours ago at the time of posting this. ::) Quote But why haven't you stopped while others have withdrawn, canceled the API key, etc ???. At least the result is that this bot is not reliable, you can lose the remaining money if you continue to operate with it. Well, it has been a month since I started... but if I DON'T stop and withdraw now... then technically the 0.04 BTC loss is "unrealised" :P Seriously tho, I put the money in figuring it would probably be lost... I wanted to risk my money so others wouldn't need to and could get a reasonably independent and honest assessment of what the bot was actually doing (without the ludicrous claims of ROI based on backtests and imaginary bankrolls). I figure I may as well just ride it out until either all my money is gone (or maybe one more big loss? ???)... or I get back to 0.1 BTC. At this stage, I'm fairly confident that I know which one of those things is going to occur first ::) :P Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: ChuckBuck on December 30, 2019, 06:03:33 AM Seriously tho, I put the money in figuring it would probably be lost... I wanted to risk my money so others wouldn't need to and could get a reasonably independent and honest assessment of what the bot was actually doing (without the ludicrous claims of ROI based on backtests and imaginary bankrolls). The bot is under maintenance, maybe it will be fixed because of a few wrong decisions, specifically that you came up withI figure I may as well just ride it out until either all my money is gone (or maybe one more big loss? ???)... or I get back to 0.1 BTC. At this stage, I'm fairly confident that I know which one of those things is going to occur first ::) :P what WAS a bad thing however, was the bot deciding that it needed to go "full retard" and launched into massive 25x leverage trade within $70 of the previous stop loss that was still active!!?! :o :o :o :o But this maintenance cannot guarantee that the bot will not make another mistake, which is worrying. I don't believe it is feasible, but I hope you can get back 0.1 BTC. I will keep notification here and wait for your next updates ;) Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: LoyceV on December 30, 2019, 08:37:27 AM A lot of users have pulled their funds and cancelled their API keys etc to cut their losses etc... and the bot is currently in "maintenance". But, I promised I was going to see this through (and I pretty much wrote my 0.1BTC off the moment I deposited it anyway :P), so my 0.06071360 BTC shall stay there, API keys are still active and we'll see how it all plays out. Your promise was only for one month, right? So you can stop with what you have left.Quote Who knows? Maybe I'll claw back my losses before next Christmas! ;D :D ::) :P Unlikely. Martingale is a great strategy to risk large amounts for small wins. Until it fails, in which case you lose large amounts.I figure I may as well just ride it out until either all my money is gone (or maybe one more big loss? ???)... or I get back to 0.1 BTC. At this stage, I'm fairly confident that I know which one of those things is going to occur first ::) :P With Martingale, I always ask myself: if you can win it all back by risking more, why didn't you start with that in the first place? After reading this topic, I think putting your remaining 0.06 BTC all on black (or red, up to you) gives you a better chance at "earning" back your losses than continuing this.Update: now imagine someone pays you $10 per month to gamble with their money, and if you win, you get to keep 30%, but if you lose, the loss is all theirs :o That's a terrible deal, unless you're the one who came up with it. Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: o_e_l_e_o on December 30, 2019, 09:37:01 AM NOTE: CryptoSparks has announced that all users will get next months VPS "free" due to the large amount of maintenance this month and no active trading etc. Lol. This is like when Binance were hacked for KYC documents, and offered all those affected reduced fees to continue to trade on Binance. The bot has been down for weeks and lost 40% of users' funds - he's offering free VPS not as a gesture of goodwill but to try to entice people to stay for another month with his obviously terrible service. Quote from: Bot Owner on Telegram Chat Even tough the new Arakne will start on a new public trading journey, i will also let it manage the previous one account that after peaking at +57% is now down at -18% to demonstrate how recovery is not only possible but an inevitable consequence of proper risk management over long periods of time. He's back at it with his ridiculous claims. Recovery is inevitable is just another way of saying guaranteed returns. Even after being proved spectacularly wrong he's still peddling this nonsense. I'm with Loyce here - if it were my money, I'd prefer to just gamble it. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on December 30, 2019, 08:16:58 PM I understand what you guys are saying... and the "obvious" thing to do at this point is cut and run... but then, the "obvious" thing would have been to NOT put any money into this in the first place! :P
Which is kind of the entire point of this little experiment. Hopefully, by having an independent user actually participating and providing "real" data and not blowing smoke about "algorithms", "machine learning" and backtests using ridiculous bankrolls and fancy graphs... everyone will be able to see past the "marketing" and see exactly what this service is and what it is doing. And now... I'm just kinda morbidly curious as to what is going to happen next... it's a bit like a slow motion trainwreck... I find it fascinating and can't (don't want to?) stop watching! :D ;) :o Update: now imagine someone pays you $10 per month to gamble with their money, and if you win, you get to keep 30%, but if you lose, the loss is all theirs :o That's a terrible deal, unless you're the one who came up with it. Just to clarify... he doesn't actually get the $10 month for the VPS... I paid that directly to the VPS provider... whether or not he is getting any referral commission on those VPS accounts, I don't know. So essentially, the only income he gets is if the bot wins.Still, not a bad deal for him really... as you say, gambling with other peoples money with no risk (unless you value your reputation ::))! Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: ChuckBuck on December 31, 2019, 05:14:18 AM Just to clarify... he doesn't actually get the $10 month for the VPS... I paid that directly to the VPS provider... whether or not he is getting any referral commission on those VPS accounts, I don't know. So essentially, the only income he gets is if the bot wins. There is a high probability that he has an agreement with VPS providers, just my thoughts, not sure. He can get a share of the income without his bot working well.Moreover, I believe that he is trying to improve his bot, it is beneficial for him, once the bot works effectively, his income will increase certainly many times. But first, think of another reason for him to start this service. You and others are becoming experiments for him, every time the bot fails, you lose money, and he loses nothing. Maybe I'm wrong, but you're spending your money just to experiment for him, and after you, so do many others. ::) Just a sincere opinion of me, hope you do not waste your money, although I know you have your purpose Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: suchmoon on December 31, 2019, 11:15:06 AM Thanks to HCP for an excellent write-up. I think this proves that the kid doesn't really have much of a clue about trading, googled some fancy words, and decided that he can outsmart everyone in the market. That's the most charitable interpretation I can come up with short of it being a premeditated scam, but for the victims/clients it doesn't really matter what we call it.
Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: AdolfinWolf on January 02, 2020, 05:32:38 PM How did i just now stumble on this thread? HCP? You did it! You crazy son of a bitch! You actually ran his bot with 0.1BTC... :o :o
I understand what you guys are saying... and the "obvious" thing to do at this point is cut and run... but then, the "obvious" thing would have been to NOT put any money into this in the first place! :P Damn.... Really, i applaud you for doing this "service" to the community, but really- anyone should've seen this coming. Which is kind of the entire point of this little experiment. Hopefully, by having an independent user actually participating and providing "real" data and not blowing smoke about "algorithms", "machine learning" and backtests using ridiculous bankrolls and fancy graphs... everyone will be able to see past the "marketing" and see exactly what this service is and what it is doing. And now... I'm just kinda morbidly curious as to what is going to happen next... it's a bit like a slow motion trainwreck... I find it fascinating and can't (don't want to?) stop watching! :D ;) :o CryptoSparkles was an arrogant douchebag from the very beginning with flawed backtests who was writing translations for ICO's (no offense) just months prior to becoming some sort of quantitative analyst. How he ever got a following really is beyond me. Moreover, I believe that he is trying to improve his bot, it is beneficial for him, once the bot works effectively, his income will increase certainly many times. But first, think of another reason for him to start this service. You and others are becoming experiments for him, every time the bot fails, you lose money, and he loses nothing. Maybe I'm wrong, but you're spending your money just to experiment for him, and after you, so do many others. ::) Just a sincere opinion of me, hope you do not waste your money, although I know you have your purpose Well, it's not hard to make money "trading" bitcoin. Just as it's not hard to lose it all. Him making a commision on the winning trades seems like a pretty good business model to me, considering bitcoin either goes up, or down. He indeed never had much to lose.Title: Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: eddie13 on January 03, 2020, 10:13:28 PM their were FOUR different outcomes which was apparently dependent on what VPS your bot was running on??!? ??? So, some users ended up with a 1% win... some users got hammered for a 30% loss... and a couple of results inbetween. Sounds more like their is no bot at all.. Do any users have the exact same results and exact same trade times? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 03, 2020, 10:28:59 PM Do any users have the exact same results and exact same trade times? I guess the best answer is "sort of"... As near as I can figure, the bot bases the "size" of the trades on your balance etc. So, for the most part, the "sizes" of the trades are "relative" to what your individual balance was/is... and of course, some users have biggers/smaller overall percentage losses because they started up at different times. I hit a nice little 15% increase right at the start of my trading, so then when the big 30% loss came, it only put me at about 20% down from my initial position. Someone who started a day or 2 after me, would not have had that initial boost, so would be suffering more. Likewise, someone who had started a month before more, would be in a better position. As for the timings.... They seem to be "the same", making allowances for timezones and latency... at least, from what I've seen of publicly posted trades. Like the differences in timestamps between my trades (https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FlNxqp6v.png&t=608&c=dGAobwTAeXzZrg) and guigui371's trades (https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FYdBV6sh.png&t=608&c=Emfxm5CRu-GGhg) for the last batch seem to be measured in seconds (generally 1 or 2)... Note that I am assuming the 11hr difference on the timestamps is simply the result of different timezone settings. There are some subtle differences, like a trade in guigui371's that I don't have... where an order got amended at "6:46:11 PM"... not sure why mine did not? Possibly the VPS I was on didn't get the same trading info so didn't move? ??? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: suchmoon on January 04, 2020, 05:49:27 AM Do any users have the exact same results and exact same trade times? I guess the best answer is "sort of"... As near as I can figure, the bot bases the "size" of the trades on your balance etc. That's another thing CryptSparks was lying about. He was claiming that liquidity is not a problem and that his 900 BTC backtest bankroll was legit. In reality it looks like even the relatively small accounts had different results because of how/when the trades were submitted. Or what eddie13 said LOL. I can imagine CryptoSparks sitting there and pressing a button manually. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: pooya87 on January 05, 2020, 06:53:54 AM Which is kind of the entire point of this little experiment. Hopefully, by having an independent user actually participating and providing "real" data and not blowing smoke about "algorithms", "machine learning" and backtests using ridiculous bankrolls and fancy graphs... everyone will be able to see past the "marketing" and see exactly what this service is and what it is doing. you've done an excellent job providing this real data, thanks. i just want to add that your data is somewhat biased. because it seems to me that each time that the market starts moving in another direction (that the bot is not designed to handle) the owner shuts everything down to prevent further losses. that means the real losses should be a lot higher than this if the bot ran without interference. additionally as the market trend changes and we see more of the same market direction, i'd expect the bot to either shut down more regularly or the losses grow drastically. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 05, 2020, 10:07:29 AM Just as a "headsup" to the other "Train Wreck Watchers"™... The bot is back up and running. This update was posted on Telegram:
Quote from: Telegram Update from Bot Creator ARAKNE v2.2 UPDATE COMPLETED ON ALL BOTS. - reduced aggressiveness near the stop - faster reaction time on multi-threading functions All bots are up and running, no action is required. SUBS INFO - All subscribers receive 30 days free extension of VPS starting from today 4 jan 2020 - Once platform is released later this month, all current subscribers will receive credit equal to their loss of Dec 2019 - Is highly advised to use such credit in order to properly differentiate your bankroll among the offered bots based on their default risk. You can also configure all bots with your max risk exposure per position preferences, in order to be more comfortable and in control of your account’s trading. WHAT’S NEXT: v.2.2 is considered a stable and fully tested version because doesn’t include a couple of the newly developed features. To implement such features, some big changes were made to core elements and this had waterfall impacts on trading behaviour, bots transformed drastically, so several more live trades are needed before releasing to the public that version. Furthermore is a shame to kill this version, most of our users will probably remember the 98 winning strike of sep-nov. v.2.2 is the same bot but faster, with 1 extra anti-manipulation barrier and reduced aggressiveness near the stop. Will be interesting to see what happens with the next trades... I'm guessing another week or so of "non-trading" while BTC hovers around the $7400 mark... but then, I'm shit at predicting markets and stuff, so who knows we could be $10K by the end of the week! :P Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: LoyceV on January 05, 2020, 11:24:36 AM Quote from: Telegram Update from Bot Creator - Once platform is released later this month, all current subscribers will receive credit equal to their loss of Dec 2019 Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 05, 2020, 09:55:15 PM The "credit" is to be used to pay for the profit commission on the new "platform".
I'm kinda interested in seeing how this "platform" is actually setup... My understanding is that instead of claiming 30% of your overall monthly profit, it was going to claim 30% of your "per trade" profit (and why you need to deposit some money directly on the platform)... Quote you need to deposit 1-2% of bankroll on our platform Quote once a trade is concluded, the commission is taken from our platform credit and distributed automatically Which seems pretty fucked up to me if you're making 1-5% gains here and there and the owner is taking 30% of that... and then you stand the possibility of losing 30% of your entire balance, which the owner has no risk in. Owner is going to be making money hand over fist and then the users get "fisted". :-\ Having said that, I vaguely recall that it was going to be setup to only take those trade profits once you were "above your baseline" and actually trading in profit... Quote Lifetime Free VPS and 0 entry fee on the platform. Automatic commissions and affiliate payouts after every trade with commission cut if global user ROI is negative. Quote We can't rely on other form of commission since we dont want to add entry fees and monthly payouts can be exploited by users creating new accounts every month. What we can do is keep the business model where we earn only if users earn and incentivize user's recovery if they unuckly start with a loss and go in negative roi since luck can affect short term but not long term I guess we'll have to wait and see how it is actually implemented... I think I'll keep this experiment running (assuming I still have funds when the platform is up :P) and see how it all works... I'm due for a fairly large "credit", so it won't really cost me anything in commissions for a bit ::) Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: TMAN on January 06, 2020, 09:06:29 AM its all a bit shit really as after you put your money up I actually wanted to be proved wrong as I was tempted to join you in the test!
Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: o_e_l_e_o on January 06, 2020, 09:33:16 AM Which seems pretty fucked up to me if you're making 1-5% gains here and there and the owner is taking 30% of that. Per-trade profit heavily stacks things in his favor, compared to per-month profit. It means that even in a scenario like we've just seen, where the bot makes an awful trade and ends the month with a 40% loss, he can still skim some money off all the other trades leading up to that. With per-month he gets nothing in that scenario, with per-trade he still gets plenty. There is no scenario where per-trade skimming gives him less than per-month skimming, and it also means he can continue to take profits even when his customers are losing.Having said that, I vaguely recall that it was going to be setup to only take those trade profits once you were "above your baseline" and actually trading in profit... Commission "cut" to what? To 0%? Or from 30% to 25%? Why not say "commission free"? This seems like deliberately vague wording.Quote Lifetime Free VPS and 0 entry fee on the platform. Automatic commissions and affiliate payouts after every trade with commission cut if global user ROI is negative. if they unuckly start with a loss and go in negative roi since luck can affect short term but not long term More of this nonsense. Essentially saying you will always end up in positive returns if you just suffer through the losses, which is obviously nonsense.Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 06, 2020, 09:44:13 AM its all a bit shit really as after you put your money up I actually wanted to be proved wrong as I was tempted to join you in the test! Would have been cool if we'd all been proven wrong... but alas, no "magic beans" as yet :PCommission "cut" to what? To 0%? Or from 30% to 25%? Why not say "commission free"? This seems like deliberately vague wording. I'm pretty sure it is 0%... note that that was just one specific quote that I copy/pasted from the Telegram chat. It has been mentioned several times, so at this point, I am fairly sure it is "zero commission".What will be interesting to see is if the cutoff point will be a users "high tide" mark (so once you reach a new "high", you'll only pay on winning trades above that)... or if it will simply be your initial deposit amount. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: TMAN on January 06, 2020, 10:56:51 AM he would get some credibility if he asked for the 1-2% of BR to be held by an escrow - that would protect all parties here
Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: LoyceV on January 06, 2020, 03:53:23 PM Which seems pretty fucked up to me if you're making 1-5% gains here and there and the owner is taking 30% of that... and then you stand the possibility of losing 30% of your entire balance, which the owner has no risk in. Owner is going to be making money hand over fist and then the users get "fisted". :-\ That makes sense: his plan to take 30% of monthly profit failed, and taking 30% of all profitable trades almost guarantees him profit. So if you win 10% and lose 10%, you have no profit, but you'll lose 3% of your balance as "commission".Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: Tradeout on January 07, 2020, 09:17:22 AM Hey HCP,
Any news on new trades? I might leave my own review after getting kicked from the group/service for complaining about the their attitude towards the 0.027 loss on my account. Paid my VPS fees and got 20 days with about 2 trades... -27% ROI! Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 07, 2020, 07:39:16 PM Actually had a small trade today... only a 0.1% gain, as the price pumped a bit too quick and the other orders didn't fill... still, at least the BTC price is increasing overall!
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zc0nZ.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zclk8.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zcxg3.png Nice to see a green bar again, but still a long ways to go to "break even" :-\ Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: Railai on January 10, 2020, 04:46:37 PM With all the changes in the last days of the btc price, the profit should've been more. I have read all the topic and only accepting the idea of martignale in trading is a huge mistake. I trade btc/usdt daily with alarms during the night, during my dinner, during my lunch and the way i see the orders done by this bot just offers a certain loss.
Now about the fee, the 3% for the each trade or 30% of the net profit at the end of the month is too much. It should be a tax for use of the bot itself, but the bot has no feedbacks or no specific results. Unfortunately trading on bitmex with a bot it is not the safest place; more than 95% of the exchange are done with bots that compete. I can recommend some bots if you are interested (you look like an experienced user). Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: TMAN on January 11, 2020, 09:33:47 AM Where is the Italian stallion? I see he hasn’t been logged on in a while, his cronies (alts) seem to of gone quiet as well.
Funny init, the kid was so vocal and I was seen as the bully but results speak volumes and I am sorry you lost out HCP Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 11, 2020, 07:31:32 PM Where is the Italian stallion? Beavering away on the "Platform" as far as I can tell... In other news, the bot had a small 1.35% win yesterday (0.00082142 in BTC)... and also attempted a trade last night but didn't get filled and the price pumped, then just as the price started to dump again, the trades were cancelled by the bot. https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zcs0o.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zckmT.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zcvJl.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zcYp1.png Just need another 35 wins like that and I'll be back near even :P Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: TMAN on January 11, 2020, 10:36:24 PM So that’s 3 “win’s” in the last month? So that’s 12 months till even with not 1 loss??
Ha ha ha Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 11, 2020, 11:08:51 PM To be fair, the bot was offline for nearly 2 weeks... but having said that, since that first big loss, when the first of the new "algo's" was added, the bot was not active (as you can see from around 5th Dec until the 2nd big loss when it got taken offline)...
Will be interesting to see how it runs until the end of this month... but I still think my "slow motion trainwreck" analogy holds :P #suckerForPunishment Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: TMAN on January 12, 2020, 12:42:22 AM #learningasitruns
#isaidbacktestsmeannothing Sorry dude this isn’t against you as you know. #wherearehisauppertersnow?? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 18, 2020, 02:00:54 AM Firstly, apologies for the delay in reporting the recent activity. I've been on a work trip and being away from home makes doing "proper" updates with pretty pictures and stuff difficult with my phone as I don't carry a laptop and my old Nexus 7 tablet is pretty much only useful for watching Netflix... and it struggles to do that! :P
Anyway... there was some interesting movements with BTC recently, which saw some "interesting" trading action... and what I thought was the bot appearing to attempt to long and short at the same time... Anyway, it took a small profit one day, but the hangover from it (a filled order that didn't quite make the exit) ended up causing a minor loss the following day (and then 2 non-trading days): https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zcS9c.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zcnXP.png So, it was quite a tidy win at 0.00349183BTC which was around a ~5.67% gain... but then gave up -0.00033995BTC (a minor 0.5% loss). So now, overall, the account balance is sitting at: 0.06472101BTC, which is an overall loss of -0.03527899BTC (-35.28%). This is the order history for the recent activity: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zcCtq.png This is the trade history for the recent activity: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zcG0G.png Further updates as and when something happens and/or my schedule allows. :P Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on January 29, 2020, 07:41:37 PM Firstly, apologies for the late posting of this... I've been travelling and away from my PC, and didn't feel like trying to post this on my phone.
As we can see... on Jan 25/26 (depending on timezones) the bot dumped another 0.02082658 BTC... current balance is just: 0.04389297 Bot owner gives the usual "manipulation" excuse... https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLhK8.png and more recently... https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zL4H3.png blah blah blah... You can go read the Telegram (https://t.me/Arakne) if you want to see it all... Doesn't change the fact that since the beginning of December, I now have overall losses of 0.05610703 BTC or -56.1% from the original 0.1! :o :-\ https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zL5sw.png Order History: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zL779.png Trade History: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLgta.png NOTE: my free trial at coinmarketman finished, and I'm not tipping any more money into this than I already have, so no fancy graph give the green and red bars today. Anyway... I'm bracing myself for all the "I told you so"™ posts... should have listened to y'all :P Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: LoyceMobile on January 29, 2020, 07:46:12 PM should have listened to y'all :P You can still cut your losses and get out with what's left. Since you consider the entire amount written off already, think of it bonus to have something left.I still can't believe you're willing to risk this much on something that defies common sense. It's dropping a lot faster than my 10 month altcoin experiments did! Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: suchmoon on January 29, 2020, 08:28:04 PM Anyway... I'm bracing myself for all the "I told you so"™ posts... should have listened to y'all :P I told you so. Listen to the mobile AI, get out while you can, there is nothing left to prove. The "bot" has shown the ability to lose money both when the market goes up and when the market goes down. Do you really want to wait until it loses the rest of your money while the market is flat? :) Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: Tradeout on February 01, 2020, 07:30:15 PM Did cryptospark have the gumption to tell the channel that this new loss is another 'blessing'?
Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: TMAN on February 03, 2020, 08:48:36 AM sorry dude. i'm sure all of us who spoke against him feel bad for your loss. you dont deserve a "i told you so"
I will say - backtests are horseshit though! Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: Railai on February 03, 2020, 10:08:07 AM Trying to be devil's advocate, that dump of 0.02x btc was not as it could've been and I can find several reasons why I am expressing so, but the developer saying manipulation is fucked up.
What is the bot doing than? Trading only there is manipulation? It is ridiculous; you're at 40% of your investment already, he's taking fees from what? Profit!? Where's that? That dump was a perfect moment to maybe double your base buy, I actually had a good short on it. Quite bad; you shouldn't continue with it anymore, this is way more than gambling at this point. You're gambling and your odds are only with minus. I am actually curious if there are people really winning money out of it. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: TMAN on February 03, 2020, 10:48:49 AM I am actually curious if there are people really winning money out of it. Nobody can be in profit with this bot other than the maker who made his commission on the small trades that gained BTC before the big losses - as I and many others said, backtesting means fuck all in this market Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on February 03, 2020, 07:11:46 PM Yeah... I'm only really holding on because I want to see the "platform" that the bot maker keeps going on about and these other bots (apparently there are six in total) that all have different levels of aggressiveness.
At this stage, the bot is "stuck" in another trade... has been holding a Long position for nearly 17 hours so far, while the price has been slowly trending downwards... It had a small "win" of 0.00082318 XBT, which equates to 1.8%... but due to the price slowly trending down the last 17 hours... it now has a small loss on the current position, so that small gain has the potential to disappear completely if the stoploss at 9116 gets hit: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLYIc.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLf7P.png Orders from current activity: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLJUq.png Trades from current activity: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLVTj.png Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: pooya87 on February 04, 2020, 05:49:17 AM Trying to be devil's advocate, that dump of 0.02x btc was not as it could've been and I can find several reasons why I am expressing so, but the developer saying manipulation is fucked up. What is the bot doing than? Trading only there is manipulation? It is ridiculous; you're at 40% of your investment already, the term "manipulation" has always been used by all those who wanted to justify their mistakes in bitcoin market. and it is not an exception here either. manipulation exists and if people can't account for it beforehand then they shouldn't be creating and selling bots. not to mention that what happened here was simply normal bitcoin price fluctuations that had nothing to do with manipulation! Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: Railai on February 04, 2020, 11:11:54 AM Trying to be devil's advocate, that dump of 0.02x btc was not as it could've been and I can find several reasons why I am expressing so, but the developer saying manipulation is fucked up. What is the bot doing than? Trading only there is manipulation? It is ridiculous; you're at 40% of your investment already, the term "manipulation" has always been used by all those who wanted to justify their mistakes in bitcoin market. and it is not an exception here either. manipulation exists and if people can't account for it beforehand then they shouldn't be creating and selling bots. not to mention that what happened here was simply normal bitcoin price fluctuations that had nothing to do with manipulation! Yes, very much indeed. Anyway most of the big btc markets are being used by bots, it is a battle of who submits first the order through the api and that's it. You're a bit mistaken, for years all stock markets or crypto markets recently are used only by bots; and that's fine, who designs the better algorithm and stay better to watch out how the prices changes wins; the excuse of manipulation is so worse exactly like saying to your face: "Shut up, your opinion doesn't matter because I own everything and your using my service because you are an idiot". Quote Nobody can be in profit with this bot other than the maker who made his commission on the small trades that gained BTC before the big losses - as I and many others said, backtesting means fuck all in this market If you think this way, that's what trading it is about. Someone has to lose that you can win. But this one as seen in all the posts by @HCP doesn't evaluate correctly the ups and downs of btc. It seems ok for the stock markets like japan, where everything is steady and jumps are randomly (i can't understand the tokio stock exchange at all). Again seeing this long for 17 hours seems so much like a wrong thing to do; I don't think anyone would do such thing right now. Why he bought at that position? Terrible, really terrible. Sorry for my typos, I am really tired; 48 hours of working, M. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: HCP on February 04, 2020, 07:49:10 PM Well... whatever you want to call it... the bot sucks...
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLnWl.png It manages to take a small win... and then lose like there is no tomorrow... 0.0008 win... 0.01 loss... #proStrats ::) ::) Order History: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLQQ1.png Trade History: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLGfm.png Then the bot owner has massive delusions of grandeur and thinks his bot is being "targeted" ::) ::) ::) https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLM8W.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLR5b.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zLtUv.png No mate, your bot and/algorithms are just useless. ::) Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: suchmoon on February 04, 2020, 08:18:54 PM Then the bot owner has massive delusions of grandeur and thinks his bot is being "targeted" ::) ::) ::) Imaginary "manipulators" targeting his imaginary 900 BTC bankroll? Sounds about right. OTOH you can't really expect him to admit point blank that his bot is shit - he's not that kind of person, that much we already know. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: nutildah on April 20, 2020, 10:51:26 AM I needed a good laugh so I tried to open the Arkane telegram group today only to discover it was no longer available. :'(
I had been poking my head in there once every few weeks just to see if Crypto "Boy Wonder" Sparks had somehow pulled a 180 and was now kicking ass... All bots were offline the last few times I checked but he was still wowing his Kool Aid drinkers with the test data from his "new and improved" bots. @HCP: did he open a new private group or something? Are you still involved over there? Just asking out of morbid curiosity... Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™ Post by: DireWolfM14 on April 20, 2020, 03:26:04 PM Maybe his clients started suffering form awrecknaphobia? :D ;D :D ;D
Okay, no more dad jokes today, I promise. I have a feeling cyrptospunk has a new identity and strategy, but can't seem to keep his feet out from under his own muzzle. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221442.msg53725194#msg53725194 Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the [s]Arakne[/s] BotHIVE Trading Bot(s)"™ Post by: HCP on April 21, 2020, 03:19:01 AM I have a feeling cyrptospunk has a new identity and strategy, but can't seem to keep his feet out from under his own muzzle. Nah, I'm pretty confident that's not him... ;)https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221442.msg53725194#msg53725194 @HCP: did he open a new private group or something? Are you still involved over there? I had been quietly sitting on this hoping to have a bit more 'data' to throw at an update... but you've kinda forced my hand :P so, here we go...Just asking out of morbid curiosity... Soooooooo, after a number of months of "The Platform"™ being close to release... it finally arrived in early April. Ladies and Gentlemen (and attack helicopters)... I give you <!play drumroll.mp3>: BotHIVE.io! (https://bothive.io/) Tada!!! :P https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjgTg.png (https://imgur.com/0E5aqbc) note: click image for link to fullsize version at imgur The Platform™ Firstly, it's in a "closed beta" at the moment... so only previous users of Arakne are able to register... and I can't remember if the Arakne Telegram group was closed and the new BotHIVE.io one was opened, or the name was simply changed... but there is still a Telegram Group. I got a "fee credit" for my losses from Arakne: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjiLI.png So currently (with some trading)... apparently my "total portfolio" is now just over the 0.1BTC that I initially started this journey with: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zj8qd.png Although, it does need to be noted that "credit" fee balances cannot be withdrawn: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjbG5.png So, in effect... I only have my "bankroll" available (which is the money that is actually on BitMEX) and I'm still down ~0.065 BTC: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjpyz.png As before, you are required to create keys on BitMEX, only this time they're IP locked to BotHIVE.io systems: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjDb2.png Different from before, you now have to have a "fee balance" on the BotHIVE.io system, so they can deduct the 30%(!!?! :o :o :o) commission from your trades... there are some rules around withdrawal of this balance: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjWHc.png Min withdrawal is 0.0004BTC The Bots Currently there are TWO bots available... Arakne is not one of them :P We now have "Manticore": https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjesP.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjq7q.png And "Aethon": https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjlaj.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjxtG.png You can choose to use either, or both, of the bots, but if you want to run both, each bot must have it's own BitMEX account as each account is only allowed 2 API keys, and they have to be unique for each bot etc. It should be obvious that there has been some "back testing" going on as these graphs appear to have been started in January 2019... so as usual, the ROIs claimed are quite unbelievable. ::) You can see from the screengrabs that I have chosen "Aethon", simply because Manticore looked way to aggressive/risky for my already depleted bankroll. Bots are "customisable": https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zr2LD.png Settings "explained": https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrUqf.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrdy8.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrub3.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrASw.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrHs9.png I honestly don't really understand any of it... so I'm running with just the default "AI" settings... I'm not really buying the 17% ROI either ::) :P Trading Trading results have been "positive"... albeit small gains... and it's difficult to work out %'s etc (I'll explain why below): https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrS9N.png Daily PNL: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrnXa.png Trade History: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrCto.png Order History: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrQcT.png Frustration The UI/UX, while "adequate" is pretty horrible imo... like putting the close dialog window "X" icon at the bottom of the screen (https://imgur.com/gT0pWBk)??!? (note: not at the bottom of the dialog, but the bottom of the screen! refer to: this screenshot (https://imgur.com/gT0pWBk)) ??? WTF??!? Also, due to the Owner being a bit paranoid about "Copy Trading", there are some new rules regarding setup and use of API keys. You are only allowed exactly TWO API keys per BitMEX account. One "Order+Read" Key and One "Read-only" key... as mentioned, these are also IP locked to the BotHIVE systems. The upshot of this is that I can't create a "Read-only" for something like coinmarketman.com (which actually had really nice graphs and showed my complete BitMEX history)... I tried, and the BotHIVE system deactivated the bot because I had more than 2 API keys! ::) and I can't use the existing "read-only" API key because it is IP locked :-\ Now, BitMEX does provide the ability to export histories in CSV, but unfortunately, coinmarketman.com does not support importing data via CSV etc :( ::) So, it appears that I will have to manually use the CSV download from BitMEX and work all this shit out myself. ::) >:( Anyone got any recommendations for a site like coinmarketman.com that accepts imported data via CSV? ??? In the meantime, here is an ugly chart from Excel that mimics the one from coinmarketman.com which shows the (lack of) "performance" of my initial 0.1BTC since I https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zrGql.png THINGS TO NOTE: - The first streak of grey in Dec was after the first hiccup and Arakne was shutdown while the dev attempted to "fix it". - The long streak of grey from early Feb to Early Apr was when Arakne finally got shutdown permanently because it was obviously "broken". During this time, "The Platform"™ wasn't running either. - The short streak of grey from the last week happened because apparently their IP got banned by BitMEX, so all the bots got shutdown... without bothering to tell the users! ::) ::) I think I missed some good trades in the last week too! >:( :o ::) :'( The devs tell me that it's now setup to automatically email users should this happen again. TLDR; Dev of Arakne Bot that wiped out 67% of my 0.1BTC investment has finished creating his bot platform website and given closed beta access to previous Arakne users. I've been running it for about a week. It's made some very small gains (~1.1%). The UI is a bit clunky. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the [s]Arakne[/s] BotHIVE Trading Bot(s)"™ Post by: nutildah on April 21, 2020, 04:26:15 AM This is definitely a case of expectation vs. reality.
Expectation: https://i.imgur.com/HPlaXWd.png https://i.imgur.com/O7zj18S.png :o Reality: https://i.imgur.com/Eu0Yw4v.png :'( Well thanks for your detailed report back to us. Not surprised that CS never came back here. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on April 21, 2020, 05:01:11 AM This is definitely a case of expectation vs. reality. Not exactly... my expectation was to lose everything... that hasn't quite happened as yet. So, it's more "Sales Brochure vs. Reality" ;) Quote Well thanks for your detailed report back to us. No worries... I'll do semi-regular updates as and when I can... not quite sure how I'm supposed to get 17% ROI/month... but "fingers crossed!" ::) :)Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the [s]Arakne[/s] BotHIVE Trading Bot(s)"™ Post by: LoyceV on April 21, 2020, 05:40:02 AM This is definitely a case of expectation vs. reality. It's quite strong evidence that you can't use past trades to predict future trades. But we knew that already of course.Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on April 21, 2020, 01:37:46 PM I'm surprised that the perp is still at it. How much can he really expect to make in fees on the tiny gains he's been making until the next wipeout? It looks like he won't make anything on the old customers due to the non-withdrawable fee credit, so he must be hoping to rope in new victims.
HCP - do you have to pay any VPS fees? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on April 23, 2020, 08:15:49 AM HCP - do you have to pay any VPS fees? Nope... the system is basically "free to play"... You don't pay to sign up, there are no deposit/withdrawal fess (outside of standard network fees). So, you just pay the 30% commission on your profitable trades... and that would appear to be the money making part (at least for people who don't have or have exhausted their credits).If you think about it, a lot of tiny wins = a fairly decent amount of 30% commission... Supposedly, if you end up in the negatives, the commission stops... BUT, that's only from your initial starting point I think. So, every "win" that you get == guaranteed earnings for the owner. Even if you just suffered a few losses. Will be interesting to see how long my credit lasts... Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on April 30, 2020, 11:05:15 AM Well... my "passive" investment has been REKT while I wasn't watching... AGAIN:
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjJUo.png Another full 30% loss... apparently both the bots got hit. On the bright side... because my bot is now negative ROI, I get a discount on the fees! YAY... only paying ~19% commission now ::) ::) A few users in the Telegram spat the dummy about it all... and apparently it's advisable to set an "Extra Stop" at around 20-30% to help stop these "shakeouts" from killing the bots... not sure why that isn't just included in the Bot AI automatically, but there you go. I've now set my "Extra Stop" to 25%... it had the result of lowering the expected ROI from 17% to 15%... ::) https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zjVTT.png Apparently the Beta was actually delayed to implement this feature... again, not sure why that wasn't really mentioned right at the start ::) Anyway, given that Trade History graph... feeling pretty confident I'm not even gonna make it back to "break even" any time soon... let alone 15% :P :-\ ::) Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: LoyceV on April 30, 2020, 11:19:09 AM It's almost as if you enjoy seeing your money disappear now, why are you still in this? :o
You can still do this: After reading this topic, I think putting your remaining 0.06 BTC all on black (or red, up to you) gives you a better chance at "earning" back your losses than continuing this. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on April 30, 2020, 11:36:17 AM why are you still in this? :o If nothing else... hopefully someone googling/researching about "BotHIVE.io" might stumble on this thread. Apparently, this thread is top result for "BotHive.io bitcointalk": https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zj3Kw.png If it only helps stop one person from losing some money... I'd consider that it was all worth it. You can still do this: I think I'd need to hit up the 6-lines or corner bets instead of the 50-50 outside bets to recoup my losses now :PAfter reading this topic, I think putting your remaining 0.06 BTC all on black (or red, up to you) gives you a better chance at "earning" back your losses than continuing this. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on April 30, 2020, 02:38:10 PM Well... my "passive" investment has been REKT while I wasn't watching... AGAIN: Did this happen while Bitcoin was mooning to 9k+? Wonder boy shorting BTC again and blaming evil anti-bot conspiracy? I'm with LoyceV on this one, gambling in a proper gambling establishment would make more sense, as much as we appreciate the trainwreck show here. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on April 30, 2020, 09:52:55 PM Did this happen while Bitcoin was mooning to 9k+? Wonder boy shorting BTC again and blaming evil anti-bot conspiracy? Nah... it was like a week ago. I just had not checked on the bot until I saw a thread in B&H asking about "Trading Bots"... and I thought it would be a good time to check mine... I was wrong! :-\Might switch my strategy on this and try the "High Risk, High Reward" bot... see if it can make back some of it... I'm sure this is "typical" gambler behaviour... take bigger and bigger risks the more you lose! ;) NOTE: Just to clear up any doubt... I know it's fundamentally broken and I'm never getting my money back... I'm just a believer in that age old motto "If you're going to fail, fail spectacularly!" :P Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: nutildah on May 01, 2020, 04:32:13 AM Might switch my strategy on this and try the "High Risk, High Reward" bot... see if it can make back some of it... I'm sure this is "typical" gambler behaviour... take bigger and bigger risks the more you lose! ;) Hey, might as well... I just didn't care for the way he advertises things: changing the data he makes his presentations with to fit what "the new bot would have done" instead of "what it actually did." But at least he's not doing it here anymore. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on May 01, 2020, 05:16:14 AM Yeah... I'm still not a fan of this "back test" business... sure, I understand you want to be able to show your product in the best light... but just whacking up an exponential ROI graph with some minor hiccups and advertising a ludicrous 5000% ROI is a bit ridiculous.
I'm kinda hoping (probably because I'm overly optimistic), that once the bot has actually been running 3-6 months (if it makes it that long before the whole show goes up in flames), that'll he publish more realistic charts based on actual historical performance... instead of a bot that was created to fit back test data. I'm not holding my breath tho... :-\ Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: AdolfinWolf on May 01, 2020, 11:42:55 AM I'm kinda hoping (probably because I'm overly optimistic), that once the bot has actually been running 3-6 months (if it makes it that long before the whole show goes up in flames), that'll he publish more realistic charts based on actual historical performance... instead of a bot that was created to fit back test data. That should be the standard before even starting one imo, either that, or it has to be a really, really trustworthy person running the bot (even then though, i'm still not too fond of these "Automatic profit"-esque bots).I'm not holding my breath tho... :-\ I did however like the concept that ARAKNE had about giving realtime read-only access to api keys. (although the data they gave really didn't support ARAKNE's case, imo, and it looks like that has been somewhat demonstrated now..) If only it was a trustworthy person with perhaps a background in machine learning with an actual business case / plan that he can explain in lay-man terms w/ similar (but in this case real) evidence to support his case, i'd be willing to hear him out. (Using hidden markov models for example) Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on May 01, 2020, 05:57:28 PM Hello, thanks for trying the BotHIVE.io (https://bothive.io/) Beta and our vision for plug and play algorithmic trading without ANY entry barrier. No server costs, No entry fees. No big bankroll required.
I will not start another thread war because that kills productivity , but I would like to just clear out some points that in my opinion can be easily misunderstood . Platform’s goal is to provide synthetic asset diversification while accumulating highly volatile assets as bitcoin. The idea behind it is to split a Bitcoin trading portfolio and assign a percentage of it to different algorithms that specifically trade different market patterns with the support of constant AI optimisation via genetic algorithms that simulate the natural selection. This means that after every trade the backtest engine runs again the genetic optimisation trying to learn from what just happened. Not only to avoid liquidity traps but also maximise gains. Then it compares the thousands of different settings generated to see what not only performed well in the past but is also outperforming similar configurations in the present. If new configuration is found, is automatically distributed to all running bots in order to always run with most profitable configuration and backtest charts are updated. The frequency of this event it depends on market itself. We saw shifts in configuration even after a winning trade. Last shift happened after the 6.9k breakout. Is clearly written that charts are backtests based on current ai optimization and we never claimed anything other than accuracy between engine results and real life ones. This accuracy is easily verifiable because our telegram group with 100 real users is OPEN and trades results are always posted and commented. With Arakne on bitcointalk we had READ ONLY API KEY enabled, everyone could have accessed the trade history, there were 6 months of 100% win ratio and over 60% net profit before the shakeouts started happening. And yet that wasn't enough either, and i passed 6 months fighting daily with the same users that happily contaminate this thread now. I must say i had some real fun ;D Anyway point is, no matter what we provide, it will never be enough. With that said, you are using the platform wrong in the following ways: 1. Running only 1 bot The weaker one with basically 0 synthetic asset diversification. Takes about 2 months for the market maker to recover a max loss (put aside you didn’t deleverage after the loss) while only 2 weeks for Manticore which is a breakout bot. Of course these are averaged estimates based on last 16 months. It really depends on market conditions. 2. Not using any extra stop from start. Currently we are using leverage, is a stop hunting game especially on Crypto. 20% extra stop would have turned 4 out of the 6 max losses suffered since August 2019 in HUGE wins. We have very high win ratio but until we bring support for no-leverage exchanges, 100% win ratio Is simply impossible to achieve. With no-leverage API Keys support, you can trigger a NO-LOSS setting and bots will basically be trading without stops and without the possibility to ever lose. You can get trapped periodically when the “original” algo stop gets hit but that’s why we diversificate among several algorithms. That is the only way to achieve 100% win ratio. 3. Deleveraged after the loss. You correctly set up an extra stop now but you did that after losing without it. Extra stop acts as a deleverage, together with the Max Risk setting, builds up your money management and represents how conservative you are as trader. But from a statistical point of view, after a loss is the best time to either enter a bot, increase leverage or increase capital. The worst things you can do after a loss is : leave a bot and/or wait for it to be in a winning series before joining again, deleverage , decrease capital. 4. TIMING In the markets as in life, timing is important. You do the right thing with wrong timing ? You lose now but win later You do the wrong thing with right timing? You win now but lose later You do the right thing with right timing ? You will always win. That’s a bit silly , but is true. Market psychology applies in the same way but on smaller scale on BotHive’s building ecosystem. We release on a free to try model tools to profit passively but how you use such tools has a big impact on final results. The timing required to profit with BotHive is way less than the constant one required to profit alone on your own in the market. Especially on Bitmex where the frontend is basically LOCKED for “system overload” letting only bots trade in the most critical moments. See how this “feature” is there only to mess with your timing ? On Bothive you don’t need to worry about any of this. Only get the timing of joining a bot right. For example, 4 weeks ago we launched beta, Manticore did almost +50% first 2 weeks at 32% max risk, then the loss showing in your charts hit, taking away most profits generated. So the users joining manticore from start are still in profit, but users joining manticore right before the loss, are not. Same code, same architecture, different results for different users. What changes? TIMING. Your money management must be there to mitigate this effect. But we can go even more in depth, what about users that tried the bot for 2 weeks, saw +50% and 10x their bankroll right before the loss? Same concept. Bad timing in increase of capital. I don’t really like quoting Buffett but he’s absolutely right saying “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” There’s only 1 correct timing for capital increase, and is after a loss. But I do understand that human psychology tends to do the opposite. Conclusion Now that our architecture is up and running, we will keep on releasing for free and to the mass, the most influential algorithms that control the markets. As of now we are still in beta, a lot of work to do , and with only 2 bots available the synthetic asset diversification offered is not enough. But, no matter the FUD and how well you rank it, BotHIVE.io will keep on developing its technology that besides bringing passive income to its users also helps maturing the bitcoin market making manipulations harder to complete simply because we provide increase in liquidity. I will not further contaminate this experiment , but I hope you will follow the above advices in order to properly profit from the platform, especially the first one! Synthetic Differentiation is the point of the platform. Look at the difference between Aethon's wins and Manticore's ones. https://i.imgur.com/0s1gCAt.png For further support our group is still open and a space of free talk: https://t.me/BotHive Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on May 01, 2020, 06:08:08 PM bots will basically be trading without stops and without the possibility to ever lose It looks like you haven't learned anything. Same blind bragging even after you've been proven wrong so many times. Your bots lost money for your customers. Now you're blaming the customers for not using the bots correctly. You should set it up correctly to begin with since you're the one making the outlandish claims and charging fees for it. But it's quite obvious that you have no winning "strategy" and you're just obfuscating your nonsense with useless mumbling (see above - as if someone is forcing your bots to use leverage or stops... set it up to trade without using leverage or stops if that prevents "the possibility to ever lose"). Ludicrous. But from a statistical point of view, after a loss is the best time to either enter a bot, increase leverage or increase capital. That's just gambler's fallacy. Goes well with the doubling-down (basically martingale) trades that killed your other bot. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on May 01, 2020, 09:36:25 PM With that said, you are using the platform wrong in the following ways: No... I'm using the platform in the way it was explained to me... ie. it wasn't explained at all... in fact, until the bot decided to wipe another 30% off my bankroll no one even mentioned the concept of "extra stop" and that this is the "recommended" setting. If it's recommended, why isn't it part of the default setup? ???I was told "just leave it as it is, otherwise you're 'forking the AI trade'"... The whole purpose of this experiment was to test the robustness of the bot and it's "AI" without needing to set anything other than API keys... and the claims that you could just put money in, turn the bot and let it run... now you're saying that it needs to be setup and configured properly by the end user. ::) Timing? LOL... so what... now I'm supposed to just sit here and magically know exactly when to switch the bot on and off? ??? I'll continue posting my Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: buwaytress on May 02, 2020, 04:48:08 PM Returning here after a hiatus, curious, and well, can't say we didn't expect this outcome eh HCP? Actually, 30% loss isn't so bad, given that you've just put your money into some bot you sorta kinda knew would lose you money. How many ways to define a gambler right?;)
[quote author=CryptoSparks link=topic=5206137.msg54341096#msg543 There’s only 1 correct timing for capital increase, and is after a loss. But I do understand that human psychology tends to do the opposite. [/quote] This was almost sort of explanation given to be by someone to describe how stock markets right now continue to put new ATHs when every other economic indicator is screaming to do otherwise. I thought it was illogical but apparently, it's logical that human nature says: this is the time to put money in, even though the writing's on the wall. So when people should be pulling out equity, they're following the price, not the data. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: PrimeNumber7 on May 02, 2020, 06:37:30 PM Well... my "passive" investment has been REKT while I wasn't watching... AGAIN: I am curious if you can look at your trading history, and what happened in the market at the time to determine what caused the massive, sudden losses. [ing ]https://i.imgur.com/S57MqQD.png[/img] Another full 30% loss... apparently both the bots got hit. <> Did something happen the bot did not expect, that is so unusual that it is unlikely to ever happen again? Or did the bot simply make a bet in the wrong direction and the market turned against you? Based on the response from CryptoSparks, I don't have a lot of confidence in his product. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on May 04, 2020, 09:02:47 PM I am curious if you can look at your trading history, and what happened in the market at the time to determine what caused the massive, sudden losses. The full trading history is available, as this still works via my BitMEX account and API keys... so I can see all the order/trade history... Did something happen the bot did not expect, that is so unusual that it is unlikely to ever happen again? Or did the bot simply make a bet in the wrong direction and the market turned against you? However, I honestly have no idea about most of this stuff. People start talking about signals, bands, breakouts, shakeouts, candles etc and my eyes start to roll back in my head :P So, I'm sure someone might be able to analyse it all and see what actually happened. I do know that in one of the previous losses (ie. with Arakne) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206137.msg53474723#msg53474723), the bot went full retard and in the middle of a bunch of trades, it started a new trade cycle, and put in a bunch of new orders, even tho it was actually within $100 of the previous cycles stop limit... unsurprisingly, the limit hit and a full exit was made and 30% of the balance got wiped. This latest episode, I have no idea... I missed the entire thing as I had set it going and just forgot about it. Apparently, I wasn't using the bot properly. ::) ::) Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: nutildah on June 20, 2020, 01:40:34 PM Just for fun (well, half boredom and half morbid curiosity), I decided to check in on the BotHive telegram group to see the latest. Would you be surprised if I told you that absolutely nothing had changed, at all? Because that's what happened: nothing changed.
Everybody is sitting at a bigger loss than ever before, the bots keep making a bunch of small winning trades followed by a clock-cleaning losing trade, and Gabriel is still boasting about having a 95% win rate while blowing everyone's minds about how awesome the "next" bot is going to be. Some people complain and the most brainwashed of his supporters just laugh off the losses, sure that someday they will somehow recover their losses. Nobody has a profit. This guy's performance chart ends on 5-27: https://i.imgur.com/42POkkf.jpg This one ends on 6-16: https://i.imgur.com/NUgmhgB.jpg @HCP did you ever pull the plug or did you go down with the ship? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: LoyceV on June 20, 2020, 02:19:44 PM the bots keep making a bunch of small winning trades followed by a clock-cleaning losing trade The graph looks like what happens if you place many bets at 1.1x payout. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on June 21, 2020, 12:46:05 AM The graph looks like what happens if you place many bets at 1.1x payout. Looks familiar...https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zVdlf.png That's from April 4th to June 17th @HCP did you ever pull the plug or did you go down with the ship? Still sitting on the deck playing music as the Titantic sinks... :PTo be honest, I kinda got caught up with "Real Life"™ and haven't been paying too much attention to it... I figure I'll log in one day and the balance will be below the minimum required for the bot to work... which is 0.011BTC Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on July 15, 2020, 11:22:02 AM Approximately one month on from my last update and the bot has pretty much recovered from the previous loss... so, that's something:
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zJomm.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zJ4JW.pnghttps://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zJ5pJ.png Took just shy of 2 months to recover that one (loss was around the 24th May)... Still 0.01286123BTC down (~34%) from when I started on "The Platform"™ (and ~0.075BTC down (~75%) on my original 0.1BTC "investment"!) I shall ignore the account some more and see what it looks like in another month or so when I remember about it after one too many beers ;) :P Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on July 24, 2020, 11:12:53 AM Approximately one month on from my last update and the bot has pretty much recovered from the previous loss... so, that's something: https://i.imgur.com/n6qrlHe.png https://i.imgur.com/gKv9pUq.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/cu7sXUj.png Took just shy of 2 months to recover that one (loss was around the 24th May)... Still 0.01286123BTC down (~34%) from when I started on "The Platform"™ (and ~0.075BTC down (~75%) on my original 0.1BTC "investment"!) I shall ignore the account some more and see what it looks like in another month or so when I remember about it after one too many beers ;) :P Glad to see you understood how platform works ;D A bit of Extra Stop to survive the stop hunting and a fixed Max Risk. Then you let it do its thing while you drink. ;D 2 of the 3 loss you had with Aethon would have turned into big wins with at least 10% Extra Stop. The reality is , leverage trading is a stop hunting game, while the AI finds the algorithmic stop, you DON'T have to share the same stop with it and other users. As you have seen, when Bots lose, they lose by few dollars because whales know how these algorithms work and they try to fill with the stops , then proceed doing the trade. That's why losses of AI are cyclical, when an algo has big liquidity because coming from a winning strike, it becomes a target. Please consider splitting your capital between Manticore and the upcoming Kamaitachi bot, which fills with stops together with Arthur(CEO of Bitmex and great manipulator) :-* Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: nutildah on July 24, 2020, 11:38:07 AM Glad to see you understood how platform works ;D A bit of Extra Stop to survive the stop hunting and a fixed Max Risk. Then you let it do its thing while you drink. ;D 2 of the 3 loss you had with Aethon would have turned into big wins with at least 10% Extra Stop. Your whole premise was supposed to be "passive income", remember? Now you come back to say "if you woulda done something other than what the bot said to do, you would have had big wins." How is that "passive," and how does it help your clients? If HCP didn't do what the correct thing to do was, why would you make that an option? I know... I'm basically asking you why would you recommend people not use the bot's default settings, LOL. In your last post from your thread, in December, you wrote that the only reason people wouldn't join is if they hated free bitcoin. Turns out the reality is people should only join if they hate their bitcoin. HCP isn't the only one. This guy got rekt by Atheon... was he using it wrong too? https://i.imgur.com/qemnUha.png Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on July 24, 2020, 12:01:44 PM The reality is ... you're a fucking scammer. Your clients are losing money and you're telling them that it's their fault and trying to sell them a new bot because it has something to do with the CEO if Bitmex. GTFO. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on July 31, 2020, 06:49:26 AM cut You still dont understand, we give the tools that work passively, but user must still set money management, which end of day is a critical thing that we cannot impose because only the user knows how conservative or aggressive wants to be. While is true Aethon has been suffering, is also true, that some users were still able to make profit while others got hit by losses where whales filled with stops and then proceed with the trade. https://i.imgur.com/74ohk5Q.png https://i.imgur.com/rxSDx3a.png On the other hand, Manticore was hit by 2 losses too, but the fact that wins bigger than Aethon, it can recover way faster. https://i.imgur.com/QB8GKBO.png https://i.imgur.com/97ueZ50.png https://i.imgur.com/YhKpsMs.png The reality is ... you're a fucking scammer. Your clients are losing money and you're telling them that it's their fault and trying to sell them a new bot because it has something to do with the CEO if Bitmex. GTFO. Please lady, stick to what you are good, reporting copy-pasters on a forum. You have no idea how trading works. You have been calling me scammer even with 6 months of 100% win ratio here on bitcointalk. Sorry i don't have time anymore to waste with you fighting about the definition of API Key ;D Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on July 31, 2020, 01:11:20 PM You have no idea how trading works. I'm not selling a bot, you are, and you keep complaining about getting wrecked by some mythical whales. I'm not going to insult your intelligence by claiming that you have no idea how trading works - I think you probably have a little bit of an idea, just enough to use big words for conning people. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on August 22, 2020, 10:59:24 AM You have no idea how trading works. I'm not selling a bot, you are, and you keep complaining about getting wrecked by some mythical whales. I'm not going to insult your intelligence by claiming that you have no idea how trading works - I think you probably have a little bit of an idea, just enough to use big words for conning people. Filling with stops is the 101 of market manipulation. Is not my job to convince you or your buddies of that. My job is to provide people with automated and customizable trading algorithms. Our bots are optimized to avoid entering traps and survive at shakeouts, that is why Manticore is sitting at 98.342 % win ratio. 100% is impossible without inside trading. User can pick their own risk and extra stop for every bot, for example Manticore generated another +26% from since last post ;D , at 15% max risk and 0% extra stop. https://i.imgur.com/e9nbhuV.png (Notice cyclical ABC correction patterns ) https://i.imgur.com/LJEbFzw.png https://i.imgur.com/aYz6JIB.png https://i.imgur.com/3WVPtbO.png Also is worth mentioning we are the only ones to have public record of every trade and public chat. Trade History: https://t.me/BotHIVE_io Public Chat https://t.me/BotHive Happy Trading ;D Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on August 22, 2020, 02:51:54 PM Filling with stops is the 101 of market manipulation. That's great, and it only took you about a year of wasting your customers money to figure that out. Now that you have the magic new bot totally immune to manipulation and other whale-y shenanigans I take it you're going to repay your victims? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on August 22, 2020, 07:31:13 PM Filling with stops is the 101 of market manipulation. That's great, and it only took you about a year of wasting your customers money to figure that out. Now that you have the magic new bot totally immune to manipulation and other whale-y shenanigans I take it you're going to repay your victims? What victims? Manticore launched with the platform, got 2 max losses visible in the chart and not only recovered fully the loss but is in great profit now. Today made another win. Aethon with at least 10% extra stop would be in profit too. Curious to see HCP account now, that suffered losses with Aethon at 0% extra stop. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on August 22, 2020, 07:55:26 PM What victims? Manticore launched with the platform, got 2 max losses visible in the chart and not only recovered fully the loss but is in great profit now. Today made another win. Aethon with at least 10% extra stop would be in profit too. Curious to see HCP account now, that suffered losses with Aethon at 0% extra stop. Victims of all your previous failed experiments. Beta testers who paid to get fucked over. I would seem fair to compensate them now that you finally hit gold. You're bragging about the great new bot exactly like you bragged about the previous ones, which ended up losing money. So what's it gonna be - put some money where your mouth is or leave your customers holding the bags as usual? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on August 22, 2020, 10:10:18 PM Curious to see HCP account now, that suffered losses with Aethon at 0% extra stop. Would give a full update, but I'm away on business at the moment... using a shitty old laptop that idles at 70C and thermal throttles "like a boss"™ :-\It took me literally 10 minutes just to get this screenshot, crop it and upload it... :-\ ::) >:( https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zfrvN.png Nearly back to "break even" from the start of ThePlatform™... just a minor loss of -0.0016BTC... which means that overall, from the original 0.1BTC investment on the old VPS hosted bot, I am down around -0.0616BTC... or roughly ~61% loss. Note: my overall portfolio is listed as being 0.099134BTC, but 0.059781BTC of that is "fee balance" which is the leftovers from the "loss rebate" that was credited to my account when the platform was launched. This cannot be withdrawn. It's basically "store credit". Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: nutildah on August 23, 2020, 04:27:24 AM Note: my overall portfolio is listed as being 0.099134BTC, but 0.059781BTC of that is "fee balance" which is the leftovers from the "loss rebate" that was credited to my account when the platform was launched. This cannot be withdrawn. It's basically "store credit". So in your opinion, would you recommend people use or continue using CryptoSparks' service? Looking for an unbiased opinion here, which you are more capable of giving than any of us... Guigui stopped his "trial" quite some time ago so we know what he thinks. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on August 23, 2020, 09:44:55 AM Honestly? At this point in time, based purely on my experience, I would have to say "No"... I don't think I could recommend it... not unless you have a really solid understanding of the bot settings and can set them to match your personal risk profile.
I was probably needing something that was a bit more "idiot proof" or geared towards "lazy investor"... as I will readily admit, I know almost nothing regarding the in's and out's of trading... and, as we witnessed with the substantial hits that I took, leaving the bots at default settings left you vulnerable to some nasty surprises. Now, to be fair, I have only been using the plaform now for 4 1/2 months, from Early April through to Late August... and in that time I hit three (more) big losses and changed my bot from using "Aethon" to using "Manticore"... So far, "Manticore" seems to be doing "OK", in that it has at least recovered all my losses from when I started using the platform. I'm kinda surprised, tbh... I had expected that I was going to get wiped out (or at least drop below min balance threshold) during some of the very volatile trading periods we have seen in the last couple of months. Currently, I have no plans to "exit"... maybe if my balance gets back around the fiat value I originally invested (~US$735) then I might consider pulling out... for now, I think I'll "let it ride". Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on September 03, 2020, 04:05:56 PM Curious to see HCP account now, that suffered losses with Aethon at 0% extra stop. Would give a full update, but I'm away on business at the moment... using a shitty old laptop that idles at 70C and thermal throttles "like a boss"™ :-\It took me literally 10 minutes just to get this screenshot, crop it and upload it... :-\ ::) >:( https://i.imgur.com/S4NeaPz.png Nearly back to "break even" from the start of ThePlatform™... just a minor loss of -0.0016BTC... which means that overall, from the original 0.1BTC investment on the old VPS hosted bot, I am down around -0.0616BTC... or roughly ~61% loss. Note: my overall portfolio is listed as being 0.099134BTC, but 0.059781BTC of that is "fee balance" which is the leftovers from the "loss rebate" that was credited to my account when the platform was launched. This cannot be withdrawn. It's basically "store credit". Good to see you recovered from Aethon, also keep in mind that graphs tracks net profit after paying bothive fees and bitmex. Meanwhile the winning strike goes on https://i.imgur.com/tocVqpU.png Happy trading ;D Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on September 03, 2020, 04:43:52 PM Meanwhile the winning strike goes on So I take it that you're just going to ignore the prior losing "strikes". And when this bot inevitably shits the bed you're gonna create a new winning one. Sounds about right? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on September 03, 2020, 06:57:22 PM Meanwhile the winning strike goes on So I take it that you're just going to ignore the prior losing "strikes". And when this bot inevitably shits the bed you're gonna create a new winning one. Sounds about right? Well, i hope none will forget or ignore the ABC correction pattern and wrongly leave bot in fear. https://i.imgur.com/tl9TpTK.png 0.01 BTC Free Credit for who guesses the next algorithmic top before correction ;D As always, public trade history https://t.me/BotHIVE_io Public chat https://t.me/BotHive Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on September 03, 2020, 11:53:48 PM Well, i hope none will forget or ignore the ABC correction pattern and wrongly leave bot in fear. How much of your own money do you have riding on that magic bot? Your screenshots show 0.009 BTC so considering the 10000%+ claimed gains you started with what... ~0.0001 BTC? AKA one US dollar? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on September 04, 2020, 12:57:09 AM My biggest issue with these charts and the "10000% ROI" claim... is that it is obviously all "backtest" results... (and labelled as such, so credit for that at least!)
The bot and platform were only available from around April this year. So this historical data going back to the beginning of 2019 is obviously not representative of what an actual user would have received if they had invested on day 1 of it actually being available to users. When I switched to Manticore around 1st May... I was around -0.009 BTC from where I started started on the new platform... which would have meant I started using Manticore with a "bankroll" of ~0.0344 BTC... today, I am at 0.047306 BTC "bankroll"... So, it's made approximately ~0.0129 BTC since the start of May from a starting balance of 0.0344 BTC... which is about a 37.5% increase over basically 4 months (with a couple of big 30% losses inbetween)... which is obviously nowhere near this mythical 10000% return. ::) I'm just glad I switched bots... :P https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zfkof.png Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on September 04, 2020, 01:11:29 AM So, it's made approximately ~0.0129 BTC since the start of May from a starting balance of 0.0344 BTC... which is about a 37.5% increase over basically 4 months (with a couple of big 30% losses inbetween)... which is obviously nowhere near this mythical 10000% return. ::) With the 32% max risk that means you have slightly more than one loss worth of gains, right? And if you get a couple of losses one after another... well, I'm rooting for you but I feel like we've seen this movie before. Edit: actually you might be underwater again after just one loss because percentage math is weird. 0.0473 - 32% = 0.0322 Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on September 12, 2020, 08:57:36 AM My biggest issue with these charts and the "10000% ROI" claim... is that it is obviously all "backtest" results... (and labelled as such, so credit for that at least!) When I switched to Manticore around 1st May... which is about a 37.5% increase over basically 4 months (with a couple of big 30% losses inbetween)... which is obviously nowhere near this mythical 10000% return. ::) You are forgetting a big part in your argument, which is TIME. Keep Manticore and this diary alive for 20 months total and you will see the magic of compound. Funny how you and the haters in this thread were already considering this bitmex account as DEAD, lots of "I TOLD YOU SO" and here we are where it not only recovered the "DEAD" but is in big profit. Meanwhile, the winning streak keeps going ;D https://i.imgur.com/Hp0RtGq.png Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on September 13, 2020, 12:52:12 AM ... and here we are where it not only recovered the "DEAD" but is in big profit. My initial investment: 0.1 BTCMy current bankroll: 0.0536 BTC That's a 0.0464 BTC loss... Not sure what "big profit" you're referring to. Or are you referring to the mythical 15,000% ROI from an imaginary account, that could not possibly have been started in Jan 2019 as the bot wasn't released until April 2020? ??? See, this is what I'm saying, you're busying generating mythical scenarios and charts, while ignoring the very real results that your users are experiencing. It's great that your backtest shows exponential growth... but this is not what users have experienced. Platform Start Balance: 0.0346 BTC Platform Current Balance: 0.0536 BTC Granted, that is a somewhat impressive ~64.6% gain since April... but it certainly isn't anywhere near 15000% ::) Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on October 10, 2020, 03:13:34 AM Well, i hope none will forget or ignore the ABC correction pattern and wrongly leave bot in fear. https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zYPbN.png Looks like it's more of an "ABCD" correction pattern this time around ::) https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/zYTSa.png Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on October 10, 2020, 03:37:17 AM Looks like it's more of an "ABCD" correction pattern this time around ::) Damn, I feel bad even just thinking "I told you so"... you might be underwater again after just one loss And it looks like you got three losses in quick succession. New bot coming soon? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: nutildah on October 10, 2020, 04:03:56 AM Looks like it's more of an "ABCD" correction pattern this time around ::) https://i.imgur.com/25dYWBe.png Were you using the bot incorrectly again? The BotHive account still have a 25,000% gain rate overall, so whats a minor loss every now and then? Just wait until the next bot comes out, Mothra. Looks like the bot got trapped in a short position, tried to double-down and then triple-down... ouch. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: LoyceV on October 10, 2020, 09:24:41 AM Looks like it's more of an "ABCD" correction pattern this time around ::) It still looks like classic martingale.https://i.imgur.com/25dYWBe.png Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on October 10, 2020, 12:50:15 PM It still looks like classic martingale. Yeah that's pretty much what CryptoSparks does. He finds a "strategy" that has a long non-losing streak in his backtests and pretends that it will continue forever. And when it inevitably fails, it's time to blame the whales, or the users not using the bot correctly. And then a new bot that will definitely fix the issue. Except he never puts his own money at risk, such a mystery. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on May 09, 2021, 12:40:33 AM Well... it was a loooooong slooooooow death... but the inevitable finally happened. Finally got REKT! :P
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/14/zN753.png My Bitmex balance dipped below the 0.01 BTC min balance required: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/14/zNBUw.png It shows on the Bothive platform as 0.00000000 BTC, but on Bitmex it's actually 0.0091 BTC: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/14/zNgR9.png Following some "unluck" this past couple of weeks: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/14/zN8ea.png https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/14/zNbQo.png Final thoughts: c'est la vie... in fiat terms, the original 0.1BTC investment was worth around $750... and now my 0.0091 is worth around $530ish... however... considering that 0.1 BTC is now worth USD$5900... I would have been much better off just leaving it sitting in a wallet :P Anyway, hopefully, this thread has in some way helped others avoid losing money in this service... even if it was just one person, I would consider it a worthwhile little adventure. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on May 09, 2021, 01:32:21 AM ~ Unnecessary as it seemed, I hope your sacrifice will help convince those who would otherwise dismiss red trust and criticism against CryptoSparks... but probably not LOL. Blatant liars like him, particularly ones who learned enough big words to fool an average person, tend to be quite successful. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: nutildah on May 09, 2021, 06:18:26 AM Ouch... Well, sorry to hear about your losses, and by the sound of things you're only down a couple hundred dollars or so. Thanks for paying for our entertainment for the last... well however long its been since you started this thread.
Your chart looks like something I could replicate in a dice game with a reverse martingale script. Except it would only take me about 5 minutes to replicate the results. I checked in to the Telegram chat. After you left, he of course made some metaphor about crashing a Ferrari and blamed you. Lol what a douchelord. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: DireWolfM14 on May 09, 2021, 07:53:35 PM Sorry for your loss, HCP. It seemed obvious enough at the time, but so many people wanted to defend this scammer I guess this was needed as a "public service." For that I thank you.
The best part is his contradictory response on the Telegram channel, essentially blaming you for not "managing" the "automated" trades correctly. Quote from: CryptoSparks https://t.me/BotHive/15023 [In reply to HCP] ~snip~ Lastly, you have been against this platform from day one and you have proved it so many times that your only interest was FUD. Sentences like "honestly surprised it took this long" , or showing account with 0 balance just to make your claims stronger when these bots never liquidate accounts are just little evidences that your are just a nincompoop that never wanted to profit from platform. Go back in your forum with your gang of scammers that think to rule the world with valueless "merit points" . Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on May 09, 2021, 11:59:50 PM Quote from: https://t.me/BotHive/15023 BotHIVE gives you automated and professional tools that you still control with your Money Management and emotions. Money Management is the most important thing, if you can't make money with algos that reach 98% win ratio and when they lose , most of time is by precise shakeout, you will never make money with trading. All I did was document my experience with his trading bot and the platform... and apparently that makes me emotional with poor money management. ???The thing he seems to forget with his 98% win ratio... is that it often wins less than 5-10% but will likely lose 100% of your "max risk" (was set to something like 30% of bankroll by default). So, it only takes a couple of loses (which is exactly what you can expect to get with a 2% loss rate) and you're all the way down. You're basically playing dice at 98% chance to win with 30% of your bankroll. Except that dice is (generally) provably fair and not open to "market manipulation" and the whims of the trading market place. Like this dicebot simulation... starting bankroll 0.1... bet = balance * 0.3 ("30% max risk")... chance 98%... https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/14/zN4AZ.png Looks somewhat familiar... only 23 losses in 1000 rolls... thats a 97.7% win ratio... and I still lost 99.4% of my bankroll. :P Anyway... Nice to see he is interested in civilised, open and honest discourse. ::) Instead, he just throws insults, blames market manipulation and then the end users for not understanding how trading works. ::) ::) https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/14/zN5E8.png ::) Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: eddie13 on May 10, 2021, 12:25:42 AM Guess he’s a shit trader after all..
Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: PrimeNumber7 on May 10, 2021, 12:43:27 AM Quote from: https://t.me/BotHive/15023 BotHIVE gives you automated and professional tools that you still control with your Money Management and emotions. Money Management is the most important thing, if you can't make money with algos that reach 98% win ratio and when they lose , most of time is by precise shakeout, you will never make money with trading. All I did was document my experience with his trading bot and the platform... and apparently that makes me emotional with poor money management. ???The thing he seems to forget with his 98% win ratio... is that it often wins less than 5-10% but will likely lose 100% of your "max risk" (was set to something like 30% of bankroll by default). So, it only takes a couple of loses (which is exactly what you can expect to get with a 2% loss rate) and you're all the way down. The EV of a trade is as follows: 98%(SUCCESS_RATE) of 5% (SUCCESS_PROFIT) = 4.9% 2% (FAILURE_RATE) of 30% (FAILURE_LOSS) = -0.6% total EV of trade: 4.3% Based on the charts you have posted over the course of this experiment, I don't think the bot has a 98% success rate. If the FAILURE_LOSS is 6 times the SUCCESS_PROFIT, the SUCCESS_RATE needs to be at least 6x the FAILURE_RATE. The markets are not random, so the bot will have to look at some metric(s) to predict when it is more likely for the price of the coin being traded to go up by SUCCESS_PROFIT before it goes down by FAILURE_LOSS. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on May 10, 2021, 01:46:34 AM A trade with a 98% success rate, when success is defined as a 5% gain, failure is defined as a 30% loss will be +EV. I think some of it is hidden by the fact that if the bot makes 4 trades (it basically sets up 4 buy/sells etc) for a total gain of 5%... that was being counted as 4 separate wins... so, the amount per "win" isn't really 5%... and that would have been 5% of max risk, not your bankroll... so 5% of 30% of your bankroll etc.When your "stop" got hit... that was counted as only 1 loss. So, using your formula, it would be: The EV of a trade is as follows: 98%(SUCCESS_RATE) of (5% of 30%) (SUCCESS_PROFIT) = 1.47% 2% (FAILURE_RATE) of 30% (FAILURE_LOSS) = -0.6% total EV of trade: 0.87% So, theoretically, it should still be positive... but then you have to take all the fees and stuff into consideration as well. A rough look shows 33 stops hit... out of 740 odd "trades", but each of those was generally something like 4 limit + 1 market... so it's really more like ~150 actual "trades". So, to me, it's more like 75% success... It's kinda complicated tho, because the earlier bot was 4 limits + 4 limits (so, 8 entries, rather than 5)... and there are some where individual stops seemed to hit for each order, rather than one wiping out all open positions etc. so my maths on what constitutes a "win" and a "loss" is probably horribly wrong. I'm also ignoring all the little "buy/sell" 1 things that the bot had to do to avoid the API from being "timed out" etc. I can export the trade history if you want to do the indepth maths on it all. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on May 10, 2021, 03:27:38 AM ~ Even if it was 98% successful, you would probably lose money anyway unless (a) you top up your account after the 30% loss or (b) the loss always follows a winning streak. Which is somewhere between insane and improbable. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: PrimeNumber7 on May 10, 2021, 04:56:47 AM A trade with a 98% success rate, when success is defined as a 5% gain, failure is defined as a 30% loss will be +EV. I think some of it is hidden by the fact that if the bot makes 4 trades (it basically sets up 4 buy/sells etc) for a total gain of 5%... that was being counted as 4 separate wins... so, the amount per "win" isn't really 5%... and that would have been 5% of max risk, not your bankroll... so 5% of 30% of your bankroll etc.When your "stop" got hit... that was counted as only 1 loss. I might be missing something though. If you are gaining 5% of 30% of your bankroll when you have a profitable trade (4 times), but lose 30% of your bankroll when you have a losing trade, the loss is not 30%, it is 100% of the trade amount. This would be unlikely unless you are using leverage. Or it might be possible if the trade amount is greater than the "max risk" amount. In either case, gaining 5% of 30% of your bankroll over 4 trades (1.25% per trade), and losing 30% of your bankroll on losing trades would have an EV of -0.775% per trade based on a 98% success rate. IMO, the stop threshold is too high. If you are trying to make a bunch of 1% gains, you should not be willing to lose 30% of your bankroll waiting for a trade to be profitable. There is the -EV issue noted above, but also, if you had cut your losses at a lower threshold, you could use the proceeds from that trade to make other, profitable trades. ~ Even if it was 98% successful, you would probably lose money anyway unless (a) you top up your account after the 30% loss or (b) the loss always follows a winning streak. Which is somewhere between insane and improbable. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on May 10, 2021, 05:24:48 AM With a target profit of 1.25%, the EV of the trade is closer to +0.625% of the trade amount. This is based on 4 trades gaining a cumulative 5%. No... that's right... you're risking 30% of your bankroll... but when it loses, it tends to lose 100% of what you actually risked. Most of the "gains" were relatively minor... a few percent here and there... you can see the "slow" climb, rather than massive spikes up.I might be missing something though. If you are gaining 5% of 30% of your bankroll when you have a profitable trade (4 times), but lose 30% of your bankroll when you have a losing trade, the loss is not 30%, it is 100% of the trade amount. This would be unlikely unless you are using leverage. Or it might be possible if the trade amount is greater than the "max risk" amount. In either case, gaining 5% of 30% of your bankroll over 4 trades (1.25% per trade), and losing 30% of your bankroll on losing trades would have an EV of -0.775% per trade based on a 98% success rate. IMO, the stop threshold is too high. If you are trying to make a bunch of 1% gains, you should not be willing to lose 30% of your bankroll waiting for a trade to be profitable. There is the -EV issue noted above, but also, if you had cut your losses at a lower threshold, you could use the proceeds from that trade to make other, profitable trades. I honestly don't know what the algorithm is hunting for... or how much it is attempting to make "per trade"... you can adjust max risk, you can add "extra" stop % etc and you can even force close the position if you think it's going to get REALLY bad or if you want to take a smaller profit and the bot "stalls" out being the predicted increase/decrease doesn't eventuate and it gets stuck "in trade".If you're interested, you can see the raw trade data in .csv format here: https://mega.nz/file/AlARQISC#pFbvc3qJrXN0kqW3FY5eVtu2X1vHevK2ETuqJL_uqPA As mentioned... all the 1 "unit" buy/sells should be discounted... the "funding" trades are either fees you pay or get paid for having an open position at a given time, so they should probably be ignored as well. You're really just looking at limit, market and stop where the number of units is > 1 Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: CryptoSparks on May 12, 2021, 07:21:30 PM Hello everyone. Long time no see! I promised to never come back on this forum , simply because would have been pointless and toxic for me fighting against the suchmoon gang (How are you lady btw ? Enjoying the bull I guess ;D ). The reason is because I got tagged as scammer even when one of our first algorithms, Arakne the market maker, was ruling BitcoinTalk with 6-7 months of 100% win ratio (diary’s link in signature for who is interested in reading the full story). Never a loss for such a long time, users defending the service all over the place, yet I was the scammer because refused to bend the knees to the MERIT RULERS. That’s when I understood there were simply 0 odds for me of winning an argument against people that are protecting their interests or that just hated me. Honestly, I can admit that sometimes I crossed the thin line between cleverness and arrogance, provoking the gang. Anyway what I did is let 1 of you, HCP , use the platform for FREE, hoping that he would take time to first understand how a service works then report back without any bias. Actually, the important point was he understanding the platform, because reports are already available publicly here for every genesis bot: https://t.me/BotHIVE_io https://t.me/BotHive We have nothing to hide, everything is public on bothive, from trades to chat. Sadly, my hope for HCP learning never realized. What I see here is instead diary of someone that wanted to fail. https://i.imgur.com/pStiHvC.png Finally bellow min bankroll ? You are surprised it took so long ? That’s a bias mindset which leads to bias results. A self fulfilling prophecy. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy) You also failed to report how many times your bot lost by shakeout while most of us won the same trade. An example your very last trade. https://i.imgur.com/XVVCqHH.mp4 https://i.imgur.com/C4JVqnm.mp4 https://i.imgur.com/821JuIe.mp4 As you can see, you’re the only one that lost that trade, other than genesis of course, which trades at 0% extra stop. Nevertheless the loss was reported in trade history and graphs show it. However , even considering the numerous shakeouts you suffered, I cannot recognise Manticore’s equity line in your personal trade history chart’s final half. Manticore in December 2020 was on all time high in BTC of 42000+% ROI , then its shorts were hunted, but nevertheless it recovered and reached all time high in USD on April 2021. https://i.imgur.com/VxfsFxB.png https://i.imgur.com/R1Iqqaf.png Amarok, our stop hunter, is on a different cycle than Manticore which is a scalper and was on ATH both BTC and USD this month. https://i.imgur.com/nem3UYI.png https://i.imgur.com/XVxUCT0.png Hydra is a pre-breakout accumulation/distribution algo which went crazy in January while Manticore was suffering the losing shorts and now retracing. https://i.imgur.com/TCLqMha.png https://i.imgur.com/sftB126.png Disclaimer: the charts are BACKTEST which track 1 BTC set as starting bankroll for the bot at January 2019, they not represent actual BTC inside BotHIVE. I don’t know if you manually aborted positions in loss that were later won, or switched between bots with wrong timing or had just enough extra stop to skew your risk reward but still get shakeout , but what I see in your trade history is not reflecting the official trade history of GENESIS with extra stop 0%, which I remind, is freely accessible by everyone here https://t.me/BotHIVE_io or here https://t.me/BotHive . I will summarise all points you should have understood , and that are repeated and demonstrated constantly in our community: 1. Markets and Algos present on bothive move in loops of greed and fear. You can also call it Bulls & Bears, but doesn’t change the substance. That’s how ALL markets work, you don’t need to be a trader to know that BTC likes to do -60%/-80% periodically then goes into huge green rallies. That is done on purpose to shake weak hands in deep red and then force them to FOMO IN during the bull market , losing precious coins at every iteration. SAME EXACT CONCEPT APPLIES FOR ALGOS. You can argue that algorithms on bothive are not important as I tell, but imagine for a second they are and ask yourself: Why should the algos that represent the market behave differently than the market itself ? 2. Markets are powered by a few dozen main algorithms that constantly take liquidity from dumb traders that don’t know them. They work as self fulfilling prophecies. Prediction and event are in a circular relationship, according to which the prediction generates the event and the event verifies the prediction. Until someone that knows the algo gets greedy and has big enough liquidity to manipulate them, they will never lose, that’s why the high win ratio. 3. Market loves to trigger liquidity injection from long term winners’ stops. I read that someone complains about the original risk reward of the bots, which btw are : Manticore = 0.207 Amarok = 0.262 Hydra = 1.093 Arakne had way to small risk reward for bitcoin, which compared to traditional stock markets has such a low liquidity that can be manipulated a lot easier. For this reason the algo has been delisted. Is important to point out that we utilise AI and genetic algorithms that simulate the natural selection for optimising the bots. Means that the risk reward is not something in our control and is identified by AI itself. User can lower it with extra stop tho, to not lose on shakeouts, but that also means smaller wins every time. Since the risk reward and consequently the genesis stops(0% extra stop) are identified by the AI, it means THAT GENESIS STOP is the most profitable long term. read it again. The stop that is hunted is the most profitable. That is the reason why you get shakeout by so little while who has extra stop wins the same trade most of time. Because market knows that triggering your manticore’s short and then having the strength to push price at genesis stop, will 100% find a lot of liquidity from long term winners willing to buy-out at market positions in order to protect their capital and consequently filling manipulator’s exits). Just like a fisher-man is not interested in keeping small fishes but only the big ones, the same way a manipulator is only interested in shaking out algos with fat wallets because coming from huge win streaks killing dumb traders left and right. 4. As in nature, there’s no life without death . You want 100 % win ratio for each bot ? SORRY ! That would be the death of markets. THE DEATH! Because a perfect Utopia in nature is not only impossible and not sustainable , but extremely dangerous. I would advise on reading about the American ethologist John Calhoun and his experiments with rats. He gave them paradise, and that killed every single colony at every take of the experiment. Nature doesn’t want that from us and markets follow nature’s laws. For this reason , no matter how important an algorithm is, it will have to lose sometimes short term just to keep being profitable endlessly. Why ? Because otherwise we would run out of losers ! They would eventually go bankrupt or join winning side and stay there. Instead what market did to survive by nature’s laws ? The exact same thing LIFE did on the planet: IT SPLIT INTO PIECES(the few dozen algos) From 1 common ancestor we reached an exponential species diversification. Why ? Well, you get it, to survive death of individual and even species extinction which as we saw are MANDATORY and ultimately continue the path on which life always exists under some form! Same way market wants you to feel fear and quit algos or sell your btc at the end of a bear market which took 80% of your liquidity, so you can die and let others prosper. 5.Did you ever observed how these algos lose ? By manipulation that brings huge profit to manipulator and at the same time saves the algo from extinction. (Point 4). But what is a manipulation ? It simply takes someone strong enough that knows the algo ( because he/they run it too!) and with big enough liquidity to challenge the self fulfilling prophecy and take a bite of the huge liquidity that accumulates during win streaks. If you challenge Amarok which has 98% win ratio, it means you ( manipulator) have 2% odds of winning the trade. With such a small chance of success, manipulator’s reward must be insanely high. What’s manipulator trade? Same entry as algo but stop at its exits with take profit at the algo’s stop. The exact opposite trade. How many times have we seen algos miss the profitable exit by literally few dollars then go straight to genesis stop, trigger liquidity then eventually complete the original trade with the help of all stops that meanwhile accumulated at the wick that just missed the exit? Almost every time algo lost should be your honest answer. That’s the manipulation that fucks with your mind the most and is the most common, because you literally missed your profit taking then lost by little just to see trade complete without you. Frustration, fear, blood, all juicy for the market! A second type of manipulation is when as soon bot triggers , market bounces in opposite direction, then the rest is the same as the most common manipulation. Without the hand of manipulator, all trades would complete instantly ( how many times have we closed positions in seconds even ? ) 6. You can fight manipulator and protect the prophecy by averaging your position. That is done by doubling down your position at fibonacci 0.618 between algos’ entry and genesis stop. I will not go in here why 0.618 is such an important value, but is the constant of the universe. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio) Since in every trade there are 2 sides, there are also two 0.618, one for the long projection and one for the short projection. So we are talking about 0.382 and 0.618. Lastly you have a final double down , which is where manipulator wants the algo to get stopped and fill his exits. If he wants you to buy out your position with force, maybe is better do the opposite if you have good enough extra stop because eventually price will test your average entry giving you opportunity to get out without loss and gain hedge on the algo that already lost. Study your trade history and you can see that could have at least got out in even in the trades you lost, because market always retrace to the avg entry obtained by the double downs. Thats why triangles form! Here a few screenshots of different manipulation all following same patterns: https://i.imgur.com/3QorLV2.jpg https://i.imgur.com/UCxuhLV.jpg https://i.imgur.com/5RfKFdc.jpg https://i.imgur.com/Pya4guI.jpg https://i.imgur.com/p094qHp.jpg https://i.imgur.com/aGcBTj1.jpg https://i.imgur.com/XBRlNOb.jpg https://i.imgur.com/zL219z5.jpg https://i.imgur.com/wnH6eLp.jpg https://i.imgur.com/CcePs7Q.jpg 7.Just like you might advice newcomers of bitcoin to NOT buy all at once their coins, especially on top of massive rallies up, is simple statistical and mathematical advantage to apply dollar cost averaging. Same exact concept can be applied with algos. If you want to increase bankroll(or increase max risk or decrease extra stop), the right statistical moment is when algo took a loss and there’s fear. If you want to decrease bankroll(or decrease max risk or increase extra stop), the right statistical moment is during massive win streaks. Is not rocket science , yet the market and loop of fear and greed tempt weak minds into doing the opposite. Exiting when you see losses and increase capital during winning streaks when you feel “this algo will never lose”. 8. Another advice you might give to crypto newcomers is to diversificate among several coins. Same concept applies to algos and that’s why the very first sentence on bothive.io homepage is : “Build Synthetic Asset Diversification while accumulating Bitcoin” If we are right and there are a set number of algos that fight each other short term but long term they are all profitable on their own, than the most logic decision is to run them all at same time with balanced bankrolls. Did you see how when your manticore lost , Amarok the stop hunter made several wins ? Is not random. The only way to defeat the loop of fear and greed, is by running all algos. That way you will be part of a self fulfilling ecosystem in which maybe today 1 account loses but 2 wins. Tomorrow the opposite. And in 1 year, they are all in profit because you held during the fear and the greed, just the way you hold your BTC when it goes to shit periodically. 9. Algos equity line follow patterns and respect fibonacci. How cool is that ? Here a few examples that as everything, can be found with bigger details in our telegram: https://i.imgur.com/8p8oT2o.jpg https://i.imgur.com/d3bHXTT.jpg https://i.imgur.com/gLeWyRG.jpg https://i.imgur.com/tx2tYn8.jpg https://i.imgur.com/6hmmNmc.jpg Breakouts, supports, resistances, trend lines, triangles, fibonacci. All can be used to gain hedge on the algo, to understand what are good entry and exit points. For example every time there’s a new ATH in USD after a loss, that acts as a breakouts and it means the bot will do a win streak. On BotHIVE we all share the same destination, but everyone has a different journey because MONEY MANAGEMENT IS THE KEY of any investment. None can set your MM because what works for me might not work for you. Platform allows you to set your MAX RISK per position, and to have a different stop than genesis thanks to EXTRA STOP. You can set trailing stops , automatic market exits ecc. Your bot, your journey. Very soon also the automatic averaging of position while protecting the prophecy will also be released, a feature that if enabled allows your bot to double down at the magic 0.618s and drop the extra position at the new averaged entry. At every iteration, the risk reward on the trade improves. 10. Why use stops then if they get hunted ? Because of the bot cycles of bear and bull. At some point every bear market ends and a massive winning streak not only recovers the loss of the bear but creates new highs. Using stops and consequently leverage intensifies the compound and the power of the win streak. In the end is more profitable to lose sometime and use leverage than the opposite. Once again , market pushes for the loop of fear and greed so it can mess with weak minds. Does it sound familiar ? https://i.imgur.com/uPCwuJ6.png Lastly some closure… I only wrote this because I think is fair that in a debate all parties should be allowed to express their points of view. I have also no doubt that this post of mine will be reported to mods and deleted for some stupid reason, just like happened in the past a lot of times. Our dev team is busier than ever and we are working at amazing features coming up this year, so really no time to fight you ladies and gentlemen . For the above reasons , I will no longer reply to this thread nor follow it up. Good luck to all of you, and remember, you only lose when you give up, in life as in markets. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: nutildah on May 12, 2021, 07:54:40 PM Thanks for coming back. I'm just wondering how you could go from this:
HOW TO 1. Create a Bitmex account 2. Deposit the initial investment 3. Generate an API KEY, valid only for order placement and cancellation ( NO WITHDRAW) 4. Send me the API KEY and SECRET via telegram so i can setup the bot. 5. Rent a VPS for 10$. VPS is necessary to always keep the bot running. 4. Enjoy your month of passive income To this: (2,000+ word manuscript explaining why its the customer's fault) What you are describing sounds like the furthest thing from passive income imaginable. Under the "WHY" section of your one-pager (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SoVXtCzLpml9B-iiNromUJtGxIkmS7iq/view): Quote 6. NO STRESS: Trading and even Holding any asset can result in a lot of stress which impacts the lifestyle. By securing funds in a cold and tireless bot managing the risk 24/24, you will never have to worry about the frequent and violent market moves of the crypto-universe. 7.PASSIVE INCOME: Long term safe passive income baked by 2 years of data, trade history and documented trades easy to verify via API access to our live demo account. So is the income "passive," or not? Seems what's more likely than your customer being wrong was your reliance on conclusions biased in your favor, loosely drawn from a limited data set. You made the fatal flaw of assuming backtest data was the same as actual trading data -- it is not. Similarly, talking up a huge game based on unfounded arrogance did not contribute to your success. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: suchmoon on May 12, 2021, 08:17:10 PM ~ LOL you still think that your verbal diarrhea can cover up the stink of your shitty bots? If it was as profitable as you're making it sound, you'd be a billionaire by now... probably could afford to refund the (2,000+ word manuscript explaining why its the customer's fault) Behold the magic trick of switching to USD... makes everything profitable, and if it doesn't you can always fall back on the Russian ruble or Venezuelan bolivar. Manticore in December 2020 was on all time high in BTC of 42000+% ROI , then its shorts were hunted, but nevertheless it recovered and reached all time high in USD on April 2021. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: HCP on May 12, 2021, 09:41:00 PM I only wrote this because I think is fair that in a debate all parties should be allowed to express their points of view. So why did I get blocked from the Telegram group? ??? That doesn't seem like it is encouraging open and fair debate. ::)You'll notice I didn't lock this thread, even though I could have... and I will certainly not report your post or ask for it to be deleted... precisely because I actually do believe in open and honest debate... unlike others ::) EDIT: in fact, I'll even archive your post (https://archive.is/kDbu8#msg56996565), so that it can still be referenced if it does get removed. I don’t know if you manually aborted positions in loss that were later won, or switched between bots with wrong timing or had just enough extra stop to skew your risk reward but still get shakeout , but what I see in your trade history is not reflecting the official trade history of GENESIS with extra stop 0%, which I remind, is freely accessible by everyone here Customer using "genesis": *gets rekt* CryptoSparks: "You should use extra stops" Customer uses extra stops: *gets rekt* CryptoSparks: You should have been using freely available genesis with 0% extra stops Customer below min bankroll: ??? I'm not sure what I am supposed to have done... supposedly the bot was going to trade and I could have "passive" income... I lost 60% of my initial investment on Arakne, that I will remind you had absolutely ZERO customisation facility... so what exactly was I supposed to do there? ??? Then, I used the platform, set the bot going... got rekt, was told to use extra stops, I did that... got rekt... tried the "new" bot... got rekt, tried extra stops, got rekt. And what do I get in return... a massive essay on how I don't know enough about trading to use an automated trading bot. ??? So what you're saying is that you need to be a trading expert to use your bot? ??? That is certainly NOT how it was "sold". Every time something happens, it's manipulators or "shake outs" or other bots "targeting" your bots... or it's the users fault for not knowing how to use a platform that has pretty much zero in the way of instructions or explanations of anything. When it goes up it is "genius algorithm!"... ::) I documented my experience, and gave my opinion at the end. I certainly didn't start out wanting to lose money... but I honestly was expecting to. I tried to follow what little instruction I was given on how to operate it... and I lost. That was my experience. All the backtest data and pretty graphs and talk of weak hands, strong hands, money management, exits, stops, manipulations, shakeouts, breakouts, Fibonacci etc... isn't going to change the fact that I lost 90% of my initial investment... while you lost preciously 0%. If I hadn't of had the "free" fee bankroll (which was to make up for my 60% loss with Arakne), and I had had to actually put my own BTC into that, you would have actually made nearly 0.02 BTC from the trading fees... while I lost 0.09 BTC + fees. The simple fact is that the user carries all the risk... you carry none. You actually make money whether the customer wins or loses. Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: PrimeNumber7 on May 12, 2021, 10:08:55 PM Is important to point out that we utilise AI and genetic algorithms that simulate the natural selection for optimising the bots. Means that the risk reward is not something in our control and is identified by AI itself. That is obviously nonsense. First of all, "genetic algorithms that simulate the natural selection for optimising the bots" doesn't actually mean anything. This is just a bunch of fancy-sounding words that is meant to impress someone who doesn't know much about machine learning. More importantly, you absolutely control any output from any model. When you are training a model, you are choosing the training data, the loss function, and any additional penalty loss that your model will attempt to minimize. Does anyone have access to historical data for crypto trading pairs on futures markets? Preferably minute by minute data? Title: Re: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ Post by: LoyceV on May 13, 2021, 10:04:37 AM I promised to never come back on this forum So, in short, you lied. I'm not surprised. |
