Bitcoin Forum

Much of the conversation around predicting the price of Bitcoin through 2020 and beyond hinges on the effect of the Bitcoin mining reward halving set to take place in May will have. Some believe it will have no effect at all, while others are betting big on this. If history is to be taken into consideration, Bitcoin should reach a new high of $400,000 following the event.

Following the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price increased from a $2.01 bottom to the top of $270.94 – a 13,000 percent increase. The second halving, in July of 2016, saw Bitcoin go from a bottom of $164.01 a top of $20,074 – a similar increase of 12,000 percent.

To read the full article, go here (https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-will-reach-400000-after-halving-history-dictates/?utm_campaign=amba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=bitcointalk&utm_content=jc)

Would you actually believe the halving would make this possible? Or is it just another unsure prediction?

Look guys, I am not a fan when it comes to predictions. Of course, the analysts can predict all they want. However, there is no such thing as guarantees that $400,000 would actually be an ideal amount after the halving event in May. Not even an all time high of $20,000 would be possible.

But I could be wrong too. Who knows? We just have to see if $400,000 per BTC would actually happen after the halving. However, it’s not good enough to save John McAfee’s d***!  ;D

All predictions are unsure, there is no sure prediction in this world anything may happen as time goes by and things may go against what you expect them to be.
Bitcoins price going this far I think is still quite impossible base on how prices move right now, halving will surely help to pump price but not that big of a multiplier. $400,000 is way too big for bitcoin to pump in a year or two which makes me don't wanna believe in that amount.

I personally still believe that the rise of bitcoin can be very high if it is in a bullish trend. and for the estimation of halving bitcoin I hope it will really start this year, because I believe growth will be able to until 2021 the same as 2016 which ends in 2017. And I believe this because some history has proven, and I think the trend this will happen periodically.

Actually I hoped that it will really happen this year. In fact bitcoin has a good start this year and we can see that it wss slowly increasing its past few weeks.  And hopefully it will continue. When the price of it keep increasing surely lot of holders will get huge profit from it because we wait it for a long time.

Let's hope that it may reach 400,000 $ after halving. No one wants this prediction to go wrong.
It's another prediction related to bitcoin future price and I dont think there is roam for so much massive jump in price. If we dont have bitcoin adoption in daily life going up, I am afraid price will go down.

Thanks to the magic, or stupidity, of market cap I guess it is possible if enough sellers disappear and enough buyers get desperate enough. I can see it losing $150,000 in half an hour and I would expect the exchanges and the blockchain to be so seized up it'll be effectively meaningless.

bitcoin is reduced by half it is always an interesting topic to discuss because almost all bitcoin holders believe that bitcoin will pump high after being reduced by half. and if we look at the history of bitcoin on previous halving days bitcoin has always experienced a high increase after being reduced by half. and usually takes around 8 - 12 months after half-bitcoin is reduced to the moon. I am also optimistic that bitcoin will pump high after reducing by half but reaching a value of $ 400,000 I think is too high.

I think that until the next halvening(after the May one) Bitcoin will indeed hit one if the crazier numbers present in the media aka $100k - 1M per unit. We've got to take into account that now there are more players in the market, not just a few Bitcoin believers. Institutions are involved which represent more financial potential and more stability as well.

Btw McAfee already announced that he's not going to keep his promise..

I very well do belief that the Bitcoin Halving will cause a fluctuation in the initial market price but to say that Bitcoin will reach $400,000 is really quite the stretch. I'm all for remaining optimistic during times like this but let us not forget what had happened a few years back in 2017 when the Bitcoin and altcoin markets hit their all time high. Shortly after that huge $20,000 bubble pooped, deflating to a fraction of that price. What do you think will happen if the price moons all of the way up to $400,000?

I still have the same principle, don't expect too much from the speculation we get from the information available. the reality is, it's still limited to speculation, and again, at the moment the price of bitcoin is still under $ 10k. if the increase continues to $ 20k, even that is a very good achievement.

since 2012 I said that bitcoin will touch above $ 1000 after bitcoin halving, precisely around the end of 2013, many people do not believe me in my country because indeed not many people know bitcoin, I started to enliven it slowly until now it has become big in the country I am bitcoin known and growing rapidly

I then predicted again for them since 2016 after bitcoin halving, bitcoin will touch $ 10k if the price exceeds it consider it a bonus, finally the guess is right we see it the second time bitcoin really touched almost $ 20k in 2017 exactly after bitcoin halving

I predict for the third time $ 100k for 2021, if the price exceeds it consider it a bonus, I will see it in these 2 years 2020 - 2021 whether it will go to $ 100k, let's see

John McAfee $ 1 million dollars is just a silly person they don't understand about what he predicts like john mcafee even he himself is not sure, i only predicted $ 100k if that really happened it was the third time, i will retire from the world of bitcoin, $ 400k seems interesting, lol

That's a lot to be hopeful about for just a single event. And i don't think we can base our judgement  from what happened during the previous halving. Things don't work that way anymore in crypto. There could be run before or after though i doubt it could even create a new ath. Or like what happened during the last quarter of 2018 where everyone was expecting a pump, the exact opposite happened.

Aren't we expecting too much? expect bitcoin will reach this much after halving? It is too high for bitcoin to reach from its current height. There is no wonder, there are so many expectation will be disappointed because of this kind of prediction. Every prediction is unsure, but this one is the one which is I am sure that will not gonna happen after halving.

Every predictions are unsure because it's a prediction. We know that halving will have a great impact to bitcoin's price that is why we are all waiting and expecting for it. But not all history repeats itself. There's a saying like that but it's not always applicable to everything. There's a possibility that that prediction will happen but I don't give so much expectation like that.

Forget about inserting McAfee to this conversation because he has already announced that the promised he made before if bitcoin won't reach $1M, won't happen. So, there's no point of including him anymore to these prediction topics.

If the bubble will be that much and greater than the last that we have, let's see if that's possible but if not let's just be contented to the run of bitcoin and get a gradual increase per year.

It's very different to achieve 400,000
In percentage we can trace a similar scenario, but do you realize the huge amount of money that is necessary to jump from 9k USD to 400,000?
I don't think it's possible in a near future, only in a couple of years

Bitcoin would reach 400K USD not because of the halving,but due to skyrocketing buyer demand for more bitcoins.I don't believe such predictions.It's impossible to create such ridiculous amount.What will motivate millions of newcomers to buy BTC?Any price bubble or FOMO?

Talk about percentage is not that simple, although for only a few Bitcoin, $400.000 for a coin will need ton of money.  ;D And remember people who already bought it in cheap price, i think they wouldn't that stupid to buy it in very high price if it is come. Will be more logic if we speculate price will around $20000-$25000. Although not resist that sometime bitcoin price can surprise us.

This is just another bullshit prediction? You seriously think that bitcoin will reach almost half a million in value after the halving takes place? Lol, that is plain stupid. Everyone can show up some numbers and make it look like that the price of bitcoin will boom. But listen, you are talking about a halving that took place in 2016 and then the price skyrocketed at the end of 2017 and that was just short lived until the price sunk down really low. I don't want this kind of sky rocketing to happen to be honest and it is highly likely that it will happen.

In my view its not recommended to buy bitcoin above 10,000$ because chances are that you may struck for indefinite period of time, as evident from bitcoin price history. There are just few real world uses of bitcoin and there is no way such limited usage bitcoin will go up-to 400,000$.

halving will indeed make the price of bitcoin rise to the highest level of all time and that will happen this year because basically bitcoin will split every four years, but we can't expect bitcoin prices to break $ 400,000 per BTC this year because that won't really happen in the near future to raise prices to high levels, and I'm sure some people here will not believe at all with such predictions.

We have seen tons of prediction this coming bitcoin block halving. If bitcoin goes to $400k then good, however, where will be the FOMO coming to push this kind of price? Institutional money? average joes? whales? We have to think ahead to see if this is really doable.

$20k is different, lots of irrational buyers that time believing that the price could go on a parabolic rise when it is very clear that we are in a bubble. I would rather see the price just on the 5 digits than to see it goes on another meteoric rise then followed but a massive drop.

Actually nobody knows how Bitcoin will behave. There are many factors. Mining costs that double, people saying that it’s priced in, others say it’s not priced in. unknown and unexpected events until halving can have also a positive/negative influence on Bitcoin. For example now the tulip trust Bitcoins. Nobody knows and at the end both bears and bulls can be right. My advice is to see Bitcoin as a long-term unpredictable investment as a bank account with variable balance.

$400,000? I'd be stoked if halvening wil pump it to $40,000, which is still unlikely in the nearest future. Halvening is not gonna be a turning point for BTC

$ 400,000 It is very impossible and unlikely that it will happen in a short time, I believe bitcoin will increase but not as high.
There is more to be accomplished! Awareness, Adoptions are required especially government Acceptance. Because this will be the key to raising the price of bitcoin right now!

the question is when is this halving?because i am sure this is not 2020 lol,exaggerating value that 400k$ ,so if thats the case so McAffee is almost right? about His 1 million prediction?

lol yeah it is indeed that we can have this after halving but not this year,maybe the next or another?no one really knows.

Everything is possible to happen, yet we need to be realistic at looking at things. Such prediction is too much but by logic, he is only following what the possible scenario will be based on history. And everyone is free to make such prediction. Whatever the future will be, it is only saying one thing, bitcoin will be valuable in the near future and so keeping it will generate you good profit.

cheezcarls, your stupidity and the idiocy of the article you promote here seems to have no end. Two weeks ago you were at $1million, today you are already at $400k. John McAfee (https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2020/01/john-mcafee-drops-his-1-million-bitcoin-price-prediction-says-btc-isn-t-the-future/) has already announced that his prediction was just a joke, so stop write nonsense in each of your promotional posts.

can still be monitored through an analysis of fear and greed.

for example if bitcoin exceeds ath at the end of this year, technically it will continue to refer to the positive increase that will occur over the next year, even pressure from the government will not be able to prevent it if the greed Factor continues to grow. It is very unlikely but it is still possible to touch half of $ 400,000 considering the increase in the previous event was above the normal calculation average.

And when will it happen? You should remember that the current price of bitcoin is much higher than before so it is impossible for bitcoin to grow like that. But I also agree that after halving, bitcoin will surely gain a new ATH and continue to grow and if feasible, maybe 10 years from now, the price of bitcoin could reach your prediction. Btw John McAfee declared his prediction to be bullshit and fomo in this market, so he denied responsibility.

Making predictions about bitcoin is a very popular conversation for many people. like the two colleagues above can differ perceptions is a natural thing because the way is also different. but in principle if bitcoin is going to go up it is certainly well liked but I also agree it may not be as high as the estimate of up to $ 400K, because the price is too fantastic and has become a very excessive fantasy. but predictions can be different and may not always be true because the experience of the past few years predictions about bitcoin are all wrong.

https://i.imgflip.com/3mhzd3.jpg (https://imgflip.com/i/3mhzd3)
Sharing this tradingview chart with explaination of some user which published at December 2018: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

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This chart shows us how the halving could be a key player for the upcoming months for Bitcoin, which I also believe these few pumps started off this year are signs for the upcoming block halving.
As we can see on the chart, it is expecting a new all time high around 2021, after the block halving on this year.

Even the best investors and price speculators will deny about the $400,000 dollar possible price of bitcoin in the future. If we are to speculate, we should also consider having big moves in the market, not just saying a price that is too impossible to achieve, what about predicting an achievable price of $25,000 per bitcoin, and at the same time, create some moves on achieving greater market adoption. I might doubt, but I do really see a stable price ahead below 10k dollars if I will be the one to be asked.

$400,000 after halving?? Yes it is possible but it will take many many years before it will happen.

I'm not against this statement but I think you are very optimistic at this moment. Say this again if Bitcoin will reach $100,000 months before and after the halving happens. I'm not saying too that you are a stupid but I think you are :D.

My point?? This has a chance but the chances are like the chances of winning in a lottery - close to zero. Anyway, anybody can share their opinion regarding the price of Bitcoin including some articles. I did't read the article you shared already since it is pointless to read it.

Actually I also do not believe that an increase in bitcoin has reached $ 400,000 in the near future this year, next year or maybe 3 or 5 years, but what I found is many predictions and news about the next bitcoin rise will reach the highest price with different prices and fantastic nominal .
and they predict based on history or other things, and that doesn't mean we have to trust their predictions but it will keep us motivated and continue to believe that bitcoin will provide fantastic prices at the right time and let bitcoin move as it is and not be a hypocrite because a big increase in bitcoin is everyone's hope.

Yes! $10k is somewhat possible right now and I observed that the price of bitcoin already fearing to hit the tip of $9k. Currently it was trying to meet that specific value but suddenly bear market still making a resistance. Maybe it confirms to denial of $400k potential price, and I think we're too early to celebrate while the struggles is really hard to overcome even though in early weeks of January, btc price shows some good spikes.

$400K is just too much though. You wouldn't really have to expect that much because of halving, the expectation on price when bear market occurs after this bullrun will probably more devastating than going up to $400K. It would be too much that before it may get there the market will be considered very over bought. I could be wrong but there might be a massive dumps will happen before price could reach up to $20k.

The reason the regulators make exchange traded funds and index funds state "Past performance is not a guide to future performance" on their literature, is because of stuff like this.

People making wild projections in order to lure the foolish to buy at expensive prices thinking they're on a sure thing to becoming millionaires.

I wish people would stop - it's these kind of projections that give cryptocurrency a bad name.

I think it definitely could be possible, Back in 2014 people where speculating if the price ever could reach 1000$, after it reached 1000+.
People where speculating if the price could reach 10000$+ because of the halving.

So We will see a new all time high price for sure, im not sure what it is going to be but im sure people that actually have a advanced understanding of Economics will have a better estimation of the price then me.
400k$ would be crazy to think but it has proven in the past Bitcoin can do crazy things.

But it’s really impossible in 2020. Though predict bitcoin is really tough but 400K$ is very high.I think bitcoin price can reach maximum 100k$ (if bull run happen) if not then bitcoin can touch 20k$ to 25k$ but who knows what will happen.       

I don't worry about such things. Bitcoin changed my life anyway and if it remains at sub 10k levels I'll still be all right financially. Not like crazy rich, but happy with the profit.
If it goes to 50k I'll be moderately rich. I guess I'll have more than most people that I know in a similar age. Again, completely fine and happy. Everything beyond 100k per coin will make me rich. Not filthy, driving around in a ferrari type of rich, but rich enough not to have to work again in my life. If we go to 400k it's going to be crazy, but I don't believe we will and don't wait for it. If it happens - great, our kids are going to learn about it at school. If it doesn't  - all of us who are now in the space are still going to be set up for life.

The higher the rise the harder the fall, so let's first go to 20k before we start dreaming about 400k.

400 000 USD for 1 Bitcoin after the having is something insane and kinda unbelievable to not say impossible. I mean who knows probably bitcoin's price will increase a lot but not at this high. In my opinion Bitcoin can reach more than 40k$ Max by the end of 2020 which it's kinda realistic and I'm optimistic here but 400k$ that will be really insane if it will happen.

Based on the theory and previous growth periods, your statements are reasonable, the price of bitcoin can grow many times after halving. But in fact, we will not know anything in the future, the price may fall and not follow the previous rules. We need to wait for it to happen and make an accurate conclusion. I personally only hope that in 2020 the price of bitcoin can stabilize at $ 12000-15000, just like that, everything will be more wonderful.

The truth is any predictions about Bitcoin price is like crystal gazing. The market is so unpredictable. I doubt that we will see 30k after/before halving. Maybe 20k but it's just my opinion.

Of course. No one knows anything. I certainly didn't expect 20 grand in 2017 and can't remember anyone else calling it either.

What that tells us is that we need to be in a position to benefit from every possible outcome.

Funnily enough the loudest and most certain people usually totally miss whatever boat by refusing to commit or hedge because they're convinced they're right no matter what is screaming in their face.

Despite the fact that in the 2016 campaign, I still received very good income from the cryptocurrency market, I was very skeptical about all sorts of forecasts when they called big numbers that indicated the future price for bitcoin.  I am very sorry about this, because due to my mistrust I lost several times more than I earned.  Of course, at a cost of $ 300 or $ 500 for Bitcoin in the summer of 2016, it was very difficult to believe that Bitcoin would rise to $ 10,000, $ 20,000, and many predicted $ 100,000, or even more.  But when Bitcoin reached $ 20,000 in 2017, my skepticism subsided, although I really understand the risks of the cryptocurrency market and that all the ups and downs have certain reasons.  Moreover, after the fall in cryptocurrency prices in 2018, it will be very difficult to reach maximum heights again.  I don’t undertake to predict the further development of events in the cryptocurrency market, and I also try not to believe empty forecasts that have no evidence or facts, but nevertheless I am no longer skeptical about the capabilities of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.

Nobody cares about McAfee, I do think so. Well, $400,000 is close to real if the only basis would be the history itself. However considering some fundamental factors, some other people might say we won't be able to see bullrun. I am not a fan of prediction either, but if this would be real, 400k was so huge. But isn't it just a FOMO trap? We must be careful as well though.

And 20k is still not possible, though we all know how volatile the market is, one day it pumps and the other day it will fall. So we need to be certain on what are plan really is, to hold till that price reach or to just take opportunities even on those small gains for guarantee earning, halving will sure to increase but not these now due to many conflicts involved in crypto.

These predictions are only based on the number each past halving that took place then calculated the percentage of how much the price increased. Definitely not always the case since the market are dependable on the number and volume of invested money in cryptospace or Bitcoin specifically. The halving effect might help boost the price and possibly can reach new ATH, just because of the good outcome from the last 2 halving where people are actually chasing for the same opportunity that some had missed.

It will be insane indeed, but don't forget with the history that happen at 2017 ago. Do you remember bitcoin price had increased from $1000 to $20.000 at that time? But it was really happen. Because at that time there is no halving event, the halving event just happened at the privously year.

So, there is no impossible with the movement of bitcoin price. In other hand, at this year there are will be a lot of people who knows bitcoin. I just thinking that when bitcoin price touch the privous all time high then there will be many people who decide to buy bitcoin. Because, the people will know bitcoin had decreased a lot at 2018 ago but its price touch again the all time high for the second time and it will pointed out that bitcoin is really deserve to be choose as an investment place.

And I think it's those who are already betting big who are the ones responsible for driving up bitcoin's price recently.  There's no logical reason why the halving should produce an effect (in my view), but speculators who think it should might very well make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

As to the $400k nonsense, it's just that.  If bitcoin were to hit that price even in 2021, the market would be in serious trouble and at risk of a huge crash.  I've learned never to underestimate the potential of bitcoin to surprise me as far as how high it can go, and how fast, but it's not always a good thing when it starts heading toward looney-bin territory.

That prediction sounds like clickbait hype to me, and I'm paying it no mind.

 These are literally the people that are worst for bitcoins future, not the people who sell their coins for less than what they bought, not the people who make news about how bitcoin is dying, not even Craig Wright hurts bitcoin as much as these people. Why? Because they make these insane claims and other people believe it as well. You may think that 400k look like too much and won't happen (at least not anytime soon, maybe in 5-10 years who knows) but because of these people some naive investors think they are going to become super rich and have yacth parties and so forth and invest their money into bitcoin and when the price doesn't go there they blame bitcoin for it, bitcoin in itself has nothing to do with its price, bitcoin is a currency, it can't talk, how can you blame bitcoin itself, blame the speculators if you want to blame someone, for example OP is a great example of that.

I don’t know how people making all these dumb speculations. But, do you believe that Bitcoin will reach $1 million this year? He must be joking about that, because it’s never going to happen. It’s some foolish influencers that are fond of telling their followers that Bitcoin will reach up to $1 million, and by doing so they deceive some noobs into thinking that price will go that high. They will all rush in with such high expectations and at the end they will be disappointed. So, people should stop all these high speculations, even if Bitcoin is going to reach that price it is probably going to take a very long time.

LOL $400,000 seems to hard to reach right now just look at where we are right now,
It seems impossible to jump from $8.6K to $400K in just a year.
You should stop listening to those TA's prediction or speculation.

The potential increase in the price of bitcoin after halving is very high, but honestly at what price the increase will occur no one can predict. Only one analysis will always be repeated by several people. There is only the closest potential after halving the price will reach the highest price of bitcoin, which is the $ 19,000 area. To go to $ 400,000 I think it still needs to be considered, it doesn't mean that it's not possible.

why lately there are always threads like this. Previously someone wrote Bitcoin would reach $ 100k after being reduced by half and now there is another to $ 400k. I think this is a thread that is an unreasonable prediction that the current price of bitcoin is only $ 8600. It is unlikely that bitcoin will go up to $ 400k.
do not expect too high it will make you stressed if expectations do not match reality. I also believe bitcoin will rise after being reduced by half but I think the increase is not that high and it might also take quite a long time to reach the new ATH.

Everyone has a prediction, which makes each less and less believable. One thing to keep in mind is that in past halving events it took 12-18 months after the halving before the peaks in price were realized and of course then the market crashed.


SOURCE (https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2019/05/10/what-will-the-next-halving-mean-for-the-price-of-bitcoin/#28a357085f34).

It's not the high price mark that should be used for the preduction, but the settling point the market falls back down. In the last halving the price went from $230 to $4000 (after the market fell back after the $20k high), that results in an increase of 46 times the starting price. If we multiple the current BTC price of $8,600 by 46 we arrive at ~$175,000...certainly not $400,000.

And the one thing that can't be accounted for is the motivation and actions of the hodling public. The price could get to $25k and everynone could say "i'm out!" and the price comes back down accordingly.

When the price can rise to $25k-$35k, many people will be happy because they can make a lot of money, and they can also recover their losses before. No matter what it is, the price will adjust again like usual, and we don't know how much the price will be down, and perhaps, the price will adjust to $10k-$15k. I don't have a big dream for now, and I am not sure if the price can reach $400k after halving, but if that happens, I am sure and believe that moment will be used for all people who have bitcoin to sell at that price.

But prediction will be a prediction, and we are free to say how much bitcoin price will increase and announce to all people in social media. We should wait and see for the next thing that will happen to bitcoin so we can know how the higher bitcoin price will reach after halving.

History repeat itself, that's what we believe but $400k? That is too high to achieve. As if even if we reach $30k or higher, it will stay for a longer time, pretty sure it won't, so $400k is just a dream. Those who based in history on how much growth we have after halving, maybe you can change it this time. We've reached $20k, and that is too high already to have almost the same percentage of growth this upcoming halving. If ever we reach that price, just imagine the effect of it for new investors, future investors, image of crypto when the price fall deeply.

Even John McAfee has said that he's pulled out of the prediction. So why are we still talking about these absurd figures?

Drawing comparable data from the past could be useful for analysis, but this is certainly not comparable data by any means given the simple fact that you're obviously going to see much harsher conditions to pump BTC under this market, which is much more mature and has larger market capitalization which requires more capital inflow to influence prices in the short term.

Be realistic, guys. The all time high of 2017 could still stand after this bull run is all said and done, simply because of how high it went and how overpriced BTC was compared to its fundamentals at the time.

I don't believe much on technical analysis and prediction like this one. Looking fundamentally, there are more factors to consider in predicting the price. One thing to note is that the hype has already faded significantly and the awareness has increased, and therefore not all new investors would hop in to Bitcoin just like the early times, because they already knew some background to it.

Also, the argument stated that the % of increase per halving is also decreasing, from 13k% to 12k%. From their arguments that it would increase exponentially, we could also apply the same on the % of gains per halving, and can also conclude that it would drop its % by a significant amount.

$400k after the halving?  Maybe after another decade or 3 more halving after this.  But I can say if OP is talking about this coming halving then it is very impossible.  Bitcoin is really struggling to break its ATH or cross that $30k barrier, it is an exaggerated claim in my opinion and think how much money should the investors to pour in to Bitcoin in order to hit that amount in a very short period of time.

I don't know but $ 400K is such an impossible that it's going to be true at least this year. We all know that in the previous halving, the price was skyrocket after that event took place and this might happen too but 400,000 USD I think this is too far, let's say 20,000 USD first, if it's going to create a new  ATH 100,000 USD is kinda possible. I guess we're all gonna see the $ 400K but perhaps in the next 10 years, though this prediction can be wrong, who knows USD 400K is going to be real, anything is possible.

People do really have fun on making these unrealistic figures without even realizing on how hard already on reaching the previous ATH. Before minding about those numbers it would be
more ideal or realistic if we do focus on how to break those roofs and we know even reaching that level again does really takes time and now people do talk about $400k?
Even in my dreams these things wont happen.

Who knows in the end ? There were many scientific paper trying to understand and value correctly the sum of 100.000.000 satoshi (=1 Btc ;)).

There were papers giving 1 Btc the long-term value equivalent to a regular 1-family house. Thus it would put a level of $400k at the end of the coming bull run not that far out of stretch.

However, I don't really believe that, due to the diminishing returns that the market volatility experienced till now due to the much larger market size. But a low 6-figures range is not that far of my imagination horizons.

I don't know why you predict Bitcoin price could go up to $ 400,000 after halving. That's a crazy price when compared to the present, the current bitcoin price is only $ 8600 and even more likely it will continue to drop before the halving begins. Bitcoin can reach $ 400,000 but I think it will need at least 10-20 years more

Why always have bigger expectation with bitcoin price could touch above $400,000 after halving, how come raising up more than above $20,000 looking hard with bitcoin, I think we only hope bigger think with halving could make bitcoin enough raising up above $20,000 and look possibility for bitcoin and give chance again for altcoin growing up to higher price.

"Based on the history itself"

I don't think OP just randomly made that prediction but if you ask me about this, a $400,000 price after halving is just impossible to happen yet. Most of us are expecting a five digit figure as a price range but for the others, they were overestimated the Bitcoin halving that would give a major boost of price. A six digit figure is just beyond to happen yet that's just too hype up price prediction.

A $400,000 price shoot just after the hard fork would be likely impossible, I could say the best thing that could happen to the market at this point is for the price to do well to as close as $20,000 and stay there. People are more prone to believe the price will definitely get to as high as the superfluous "$400,000" price mark.

Well, I literally expect that after the halving Bitcoin will certainly increase significantly but it is impossible to predict the value of price at that moment but everything is possible, we might see the price rise to $ 20K , $ 50K or maybe more. In fact, we are all waiting for this halving because sadly, we have seen a lot of disappointed moments.

Otherwise, the only thing I am afraid of is the controllers of the market, I mean the whales, we don't even know what are  their future endeavors especially after the halving, hope everything is going to be alright.

No way in hell is Bitcoin going to $400k after the halving. Going purely by historical data of post-halving bull runs the next peak should be around $100k, not $400k which you only get when you ignore some of the data.

The premise of the reason why it will go to $400k is completely wrong. The argument is based around the early 2013 peak going some 12,000% above the bottom in that cycle and 2017 again doing about the same. But the 2013 percentage completely ignores the last 2013 bull run, which went another 4x higher. Yes Bitcoin crashed its normal full 80% or so after the first 2013 peak, but then only about a half year or so after the first peak there was another explosive run with a much higher peak. You can't simply ignore the second bull run that was part of the same post-halving cycle.

So when you don't ignore part of the data, what we actually have is a 2013 post-halving peak that was 4 times higher than the 2017 post-halving peak.  So according to the data, if the same thing were to continue, we shouldn't be expected $400k, but 4 times less than that because the previous cycle was 4x less than the one before it. This makes $100k the main target for current bull market that, if history repeats, should peak in the next two years.

Now I don't expect this 4x smaller bull run with 80% crash to continue because that means in a couple market cycles each successive bull run would be peak at a smaller price than the previous one. So we should be expecting a changing market cycle. And besides, two data points isn't enough to make a pattern. So really, the fact that the 2017 cycle bull run was 25% the size of the 2013 bull run doesn't really tell us anything about what to expect for the current one. I personally do think $100k is the main target for this market cycle, but we could certainly see the dynamics of the market cycles change so it's really impossible to make any reasonable prediction based on bitcoin's history other than that we expect the price to be far higher the next couple of years than it is now thanks to the bullish pressure the halvings will produce in the market.

It can happen, but I believe next ATH will be lower. What you need to understand is that very rare will be able to sell close to ATH. Even 2/3 of ATH is price that rare will be able to sell at. What is more interesting to me is what will be the bottom price of Bitcoin after this ATH, or the medium price at which bitcoins will be traded until next bull run.  

I think the halving will have a positive effect on the price, but 400k$ is way too high for 2020. Surely Bitcoin will reach this price sometime, but I don't think so this year or next. I figure we need two more halvings plus this year's halving. But I wouldn't be angry if I'm wrong and the price for one Bitcoin were to rise that high in 2020 or 2021.   :D

You think the next bullrun will just result to have less than $20K only?

While part of me wanted to agree about it I can also see the bulls are already starting early as JAN2020 and halving hasn't started yet. My guess is that the bulls will keep the rally up to 2021 til the coins are all generated by miners. They are all going to rely from then on to the transaction fees which means less supply of BTC in the market.

This will take time since the prediction is high and bitcoin can’t just depend on halving but if all the country make bitcoin legal and support this one maybe in just 5 years we are already on this level. We’re down after a short pump, and we are getting near to the halving period let’s hope for a positive result and a big pump this year.

Like what most investors say, past performance does not assure future performance. It is the same with bitcoin. Even if past halving has given way for bitcoin price to rise exponentially, it does not mean it will be the same this time around.

And when people recover their losses they sell their bitcoin, that's the only way to recover losses!


Recovery takes a long, long time. We still haven't recovered from the last price peak in late 2017 at $20k...so two solid years have gone by and we're still suffering from that bull run. Perspective is everything, it was nice to see a positive 2019, but people that bought Bitcoin in the fall of 2017 are still down by tens of percent...it's tough to hodl out for recovery gains. Most of these people would be better off selling their losses!


And predictions don't mean anything without a logical, fact-based rationale to support it. Most predictions about bitcoin are merely guesses, no more, no less.

As someone who has been around since early 2013, it’s amusing to drop in and read a thread like this. Will the halving have a positive effect on price? Yes, most likely. Will the price go to $400k sometime before the halving in 2024? Yes, it’s possible. Based on the dozens of models and hundreds of data points I’ve seen, $80k-$220k would be a more probable range of the next cycle ATH.

I agree with you, I think bitcoin won't reach a high price because the bitcoin hype has passed. most people already understand about bitcoin price fluctuations. there is a possibility to go up because half bitcoin will make a fixed or increased demand but the supply decreases. this will make the price of bitcoin go up. but in my opinion it won't be too high. my estimate of the price that bitcoin can achieve after halving is $ 15,000.

That is a reasonable price and very reachable for Bitcoin too.  Aside from that, as OP is talking about History and making a prediction due to percentage gain on the price, there is also this history of Bitcoin of people exaggerating price of Bitcoin in their prediction and this one stated of OP is another one written on history as exaggerated Bitcoin price prediction.

I also want to save John's old dick, of course, the halving has done a lot to the price of not only Bitcoin but also of other top coins in the market, Bitcoin success is also the altcoins success, and this next halving is something that we are excited to see the results, let's admit it, the price has gone a long way, and with the new halving could be another milestone I hope the historical data will be still kind to us.

I know nothing impossible with bitcoin and altcoin price but raise to higher price above $400,000 after halving time is look most impossible thing with bitcoin today still lower price under $8,000. How come bitcoin could going to higher price just few months later, need few years later for bitcoin raise with higher price above $400,000.

That price point seems to make sense if you look at the last halving.  However, I prefer to be conservative because there may have been other factors at play in 2017 such as the futures contracts that may have helped the FOMO along at the time.

That will only happen when bitcoin increases more than $20k so that people can sell bitcoin at the highest price plus they can be able to recover losses. I am sure that will happen soon or in the future.


No, we are not yet recovered. But we will see the sign for bitcoin price to rise again, and I think that will happen before or after the halving time that will happen this year. People still struggle to recover their losses by trading bitcoin pair usdt, and they still waiting for the next big thing that will happen with bitcoin at the market. If that happens, people will not have to wait for a long time because they see the big opportunity to sell their bitcoin at a high price.


Many people still predict that bitcoin will break the highest price. Some people predict bitcoin price can hit more than $100k in the next bull run, but that is only a prediction because we don't know what will happen later. So we need to be patient and wait for that time.

This is to much for me $400,000 is out of my sight even on my technical analysis however anything is possible , for now i am only looking at $20,000 to break that certain price and make a new high and i might say that $80.000- 100,000 is much attainable if the bitcoins price surge up . we cant be sure that the percentage of increase in the past cycles would be the same as of this year

It would be wonderful if that happened, but the $ 400,000 value is too high for it to arrive in a short period of time. But it should go up, for sure.

actually, in this case, you can predict at any price, it's just that, we don't know for sure when the price will be achieved. even 2021 is also the year after halving. seeing the developments in 2017, which made bitcoin prices reach their highest ATH at the moment, makes me also think that prices will reach their highest ATH when halving passes. however, I think that the price of $ 400,000 is too high for this increase.

Any prediction on Bitcoin is unsure by nature because nobody can really be sure of what can be...we do not have the power to exactly see what can be days ahead and we do not have the magic wand to make things happen the way we imagined them to be. Therefore, the $400K prediction is just that...prediction! Nothing more, nothing less. Personally, I am expecting some upward movement with Bitcoin due to the halving effect (we can say it can just be a self-fulfilling prediction or whatever) but there is a big chance that it can never go beyond the $20K level though that can be true in 2021. Of course, not unless China will open its big market and many other big countries (including India and Russia) will suddenly approve Bitcoin then maybe there is a slim chance for the $400K projection. Otherwise, this is just a pipe dream.

The word after will make it possible. 10-20 years later Bitcoin will reach more than just $400,000. And that is still after halving, right?

History is good to be used as reference but we need to be reminded that before, during the last halving of Bitcoin, the price is still low. Meaning, it could easily multiply some folds. But with a price as high as $8,000, it cannot easily multiply just like before.

I would worry if only $ 400,000 would occur in less than a year many people would go crazy at that time.
John McAfee is enough to be obsessed with it, for me personally bitcoin touches on the new ATH, it is an extraordinary achievement.

No, the price of bitcoin cannot increase to $ 400,000 from a practical point of view. It’s not just numbers here. This is real money and we do not live in the virtual, but in our real physical world, where the value of any product cannot take off simply because it happened several times before. It is one thing to increase the price when it was insignificant, and now when the price of bitcoin is above eight thousand dollars.

Good point, the last time high can be use as reference and if you are aiming for much wider success using history give you enough confidence to keep holding your assets. Everything will still be decided after the halving and how people will react, this amount is huge and it will take time and lots of adoptions and money being invested inside this industry.

Even if the momentum become a bit consistent, market value such that high sounds absurd still given that the market behavior of cryptos are going up and down. The price of Bitcoin really showed an increase recently but it has been followed but a little dump and is now again recovering. The patterm simply shows that its market value could really increase but not as high as 400,000 usd which is way far from the reality. But who knows, jumping into conclusion still is not advisable.

I think it is possible, the price of bitcoin in the present is steadily increasing with its value now in the market ranging and have a hold of the price in $9000. Hoping it would survive and maintain its current price.

indeed I feel very heavy if you look at the condition of the price of bitcoin which I feel is very difficult to be able to do that much price increase, the opportunity to increase prices may only be up to $ 25k because now there is little interest in bitcoin, the trace of the increase in bitcoin prices from the beginning of halving until halving that will come no one can provide guarantees to be able to ride that expensive.

And how could the price reach unto that where we all know the adoption is not totally strong enough to cover it up and actually those $400,000 is just a dream that we cannot see unless the government still have a strict outlook on bitcoins and maybe the decent figure we could give is nearest to the past ATH since it's the most reachable figure to come up but expect that there's another dump coming after $20,000+ reached since many people will use to secure and some will manipulate since that's how the markets works for now.

How can it possible? There is no clue about it. Most of the predictions are fake or purposeful! Halving may pump the Bitcoin price but 400K USD prediction is just joke, nothing else. After the halving, the Bitcoin price may hit 25-27K USD at the end of 2020, not more than.

I think it will be possible. Because if we think about the last halving, how that bitcoin halving impact the price of bitcoin. The last bitcoin halving was in 2017. And the historic Bitcoin bull market was in 2017. So we can expect Bitcoin to be another Bitcoin historical bull market in 2020-2021. However, no one can say exactly what will happen here.

I agree that it was a historic moment in 2017, but how could you assume that it could reach $400k ??? We didn't even reached 10k now. I think it's quite impossible to reach that value so soon it might reach that value in the next decade it's my assumption according to the market situation, the possibility after halving could be 25k in my opinion.

You are right. But I said it's possible but in the long term. 2020-2021 might give us a direction $25k or more. But at this point, such a huge price change will not happen in such a short time. We have to think realistically. But if you think of long term, there is a possibility of $ 400k. I strongly believe Bitcoin will one day go into this range. It’s need time.

It is incredibly common for these type of huge calls to happen and written on bitcointalk when the notion of price is bullish. I remember during the $20k period there was a ton of people calling for 1 million to be possible, and to be honest with you, I kinda understood why they were thinking like that, if one things price surges from 700 dollars on the start of the year to $20k in a year, I wouldn't be shocked if it went to a million dollars in few years as well, instead we all know it went down.

So, this $400k call is not actually a $400k call, it is more like "we are in a bull run and we are going to be so much higher in price" type of call, the exact numbers are usually made up because they want to get more clicks but in general the idea that price will skyrocket stands.