Bitcoin Will Reach $400,000 After Halving, History Dictates

[blckhawk]

I don't believe much on technical analysis and prediction like this one. Looking fundamentally, there are more factors to consider in predicting the price. One thing to note is that the hype has already faded significantly and the awareness has increased, and therefore not all new investors would hop in to Bitcoin just like the early times, because they already knew some background to it.

Also, the argument stated that the % of increase per halving is also decreasing, from 13k% to 12k%. From their arguments that it would increase exponentially, we could also apply the same on the % of gains per halving, and can also conclude that it would drop its % by a significant amount.

[bitcoindusts]

$400k after the halving?  Maybe after another decade or 3 more halving after this.  But I can say if OP is talking about this coming halving then it is very impossible.  Bitcoin is really struggling to break its ATH or cross that $30k barrier, it is an exaggerated claim in my opinion and think how much money should the investors to pour in to Bitcoin in order to hit that amount in a very short period of time.

[btccashacc]

I don't know but $ 400K is such an impossible that it's going to be true at least this year. We all know that in the previous halving, the price was skyrocket after that event took place and this might happen too but 400,000 USD I think this is too far, let's say 20,000 USD first, if it's going to create a new  ATH 100,000 USD is kinda possible. I guess we're all gonna see the $ 400K but perhaps in the next 10 years, though this prediction can be wrong, who knows USD 400K is going to be real, anything is possible.

[Lanatsa]

Even John McAfee has said that he's pulled out of the prediction. So why are we still talking about these absurd figures?

Drawing comparable data from the past could be useful for analysis, but this is certainly not comparable data by any means given the simple fact that you're obviously going to see much harsher conditions to pump BTC under this market, which is much more mature and has larger market capitalization which requires more capital inflow to influence prices in the short term.

Be realistic, guys. The all time high of 2017 could still stand after this bull run is all said and done, simply because of how high it went and how overpriced BTC was compared to its fundamentals at the time.

People do really have fun on making these unrealistic figures without even realizing on how hard already on reaching the previous ATH. Before minding about those numbers it would be
more ideal or realistic if we do focus on how to break those roofs and we know even reaching that level again does really takes time and now people do talk about $400k?
Even in my dreams these things wont happen.

[Wexlike]

$400k after the halving?  Maybe after another decade or 3 more halving after this.  But I can say if OP is talking about this coming halving then it is very impossible.  Bitcoin is really struggling to break its ATH or cross that $30k barrier, it is an exaggerated claim in my opinion and think how much money should the investors to pour in to Bitcoin in order to hit that amount in a very short period of time.

Who knows in the end ? There were many scientific paper trying to understand and value correctly the sum of 100.000.000 satoshi (=1 Btc ).

There were papers giving 1 Btc the long-term value equivalent to a regular 1-family house. Thus it would put a level of $400k at the end of the coming bull run not that far out of stretch.

However, I don't really believe that, due to the diminishing returns that the market volatility experienced till now due to the much larger market size. But a low 6-figures range is not that far of my imagination horizons.

[gweedo]

I don't know why you predict Bitcoin price could go up to $ 400,000 after halving. That's a crazy price when compared to the present, the current bitcoin price is only $ 8600 and even more likely it will continue to drop before the halving begins. Bitcoin can reach $ 400,000 but I think it will need at least 10-20 years more

[Xxmodded]

Why always have bigger expectation with bitcoin price could touch above $400,000 after halving, how come raising up more than above $20,000 looking hard with bitcoin, I think we only hope bigger think with halving could make bitcoin enough raising up above $20,000 and look possibility for bitcoin and give chance again for altcoin growing up to higher price.

[Oceat]

I don't know why you predict Bitcoin price could go up to $ 400,000 after halving. That's a crazy price when compared to the present, the current bitcoin price is only $ 8600 and even more likely it will continue to drop before the halving begins. Bitcoin can reach $ 400,000 but I think it will need at least 10-20 years more

"Based on the history itself"

I don't think OP just randomly made that prediction but if you ask me about this, a $400,000 price after halving is just impossible to happen yet. Most of us are expecting a five digit figure as a price range but for the others, they were overestimated the Bitcoin halving that would give a major boost of price. A six digit figure is just beyond to happen yet that's just too hype up price prediction.

[olumyd]

I don't know why you predict Bitcoin price could go up to $ 400,000 after halving. That's a crazy price when compared to the present, the current bitcoin price is only $ 8600 and even more likely it will continue to drop before the halving begins. Bitcoin can reach $ 400,000 but I think it will need at least 10-20 years more

"Based on the history itself"

I don't think OP just randomly made that prediction but if you ask me about this, a $400,000 price after halving is just impossible to happen yet. Most of us are expecting a five-digit figure as a price range but for the others, they were overestimated the Bitcoin halving that would give a major boost of price. A six-digit figure is just beyond to happen yet that's just too hype up price prediction.

A $400,000 price shoot just after the hard fork would be likely impossible, I could say the best thing that could happen to the market at this point is for the price to do well to as close as $20,000 and stay there. People are more prone to believe the price will definitely get to as high as the superfluous "$400,000" price mark.

[Baoo]

Well, I literally expect that after the halving Bitcoin will certainly increase significantly but it is impossible to predict the value of price at that moment but everything is possible, we might see the price rise to $ 20K , $ 50K or maybe more. In fact, we are all waiting for this halving because sadly, we have seen a lot of disappointed moments.

Otherwise, the only thing I am afraid of is the controllers of the market, I mean the whales, we don't even know what are  their future endeavors especially after the halving, hope everything is going to be alright.

[thecodebear]

No way in hell is Bitcoin going to $400k after the halving. Going purely by historical data of post-halving bull runs the next peak should be around $100k, not $400k which you only get when you ignore some of the data.

The premise of the reason why it will go to $400k is completely wrong. The argument is based around the early 2013 peak going some 12,000% above the bottom in that cycle and 2017 again doing about the same. But the 2013 percentage completely ignores the last 2013 bull run, which went another 4x higher. Yes Bitcoin crashed its normal full 80% or so after the first 2013 peak, but then only about a half year or so after the first peak there was another explosive run with a much higher peak. You can't simply ignore the second bull run that was part of the same post-halving cycle.

So when you don't ignore part of the data, what we actually have is a 2013 post-halving peak that was 4 times higher than the 2017 post-halving peak.  So according to the data, if the same thing were to continue, we shouldn't be expected $400k, but 4 times less than that because the previous cycle was 4x less than the one before it. This makes $100k the main target for current bull market that, if history repeats, should peak in the next two years.

Now I don't expect this 4x smaller bull run with 80% crash to continue because that means in a couple market cycles each successive bull run would be peak at a smaller price than the previous one. So we should be expecting a changing market cycle. And besides, two data points isn't enough to make a pattern. So really, the fact that the 2017 cycle bull run was 25% the size of the 2013 bull run doesn't really tell us anything about what to expect for the current one. I personally do think $100k is the main target for this market cycle, but we could certainly see the dynamics of the market cycles change so it's really impossible to make any reasonable prediction based on bitcoin's history other than that we expect the price to be far higher the next couple of years than it is now thanks to the bullish pressure the halvings will produce in the market.

[Febo]

Following the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price increased from a $2.01 bottom to the top of $270.94 – a 13,000 percent increase. The second halving, in July of 2016, saw Bitcoin go from a bottom of $164.01 a top of $20,074 – a similar increase of 12,000 percent.[/i]

Would you actually believe the halving would make this possible? Or is it just another unsure prediction?

It can happen, but I believe next ATH will be lower. What you need to understand is that very rare will be able to sell close to ATH. Even 2/3 of ATH is price that rare will be able to sell at. What is more interesting to me is what will be the bottom price of Bitcoin after this ATH, or the medium price at which bitcoins will be traded until next bull run.  

[CoinEraser]

Would you actually believe the halving would make this possible? Or is it just another unsure prediction?

I think the halving will have a positive effect on the price, but 400k$ is way too high for 2020. Surely Bitcoin will reach this price sometime, but I don't think so this year or next. I figure we need two more halvings plus this year's halving. But I wouldn't be angry if I'm wrong and the price for one Bitcoin were to rise that high in 2020 or 2021.  

[bittraffic]

Following the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price increased from a $2.01 bottom to the top of $270.94 – a 13,000 percent increase. The second halving, in July of 2016, saw Bitcoin go from a bottom of $164.01 a top of $20,074 – a similar increase of 12,000 percent.[/i]

Would you actually believe the halving would make this possible? Or is it just another unsure prediction?

It can happen, but I believe next ATH will be lower. What you need to understand is that very rare will be able to sell close to ATH. Even 2/3 of ATH is price that rare will be able to sell at. What is more interesting to me is what will be the bottom price of Bitcoin after this ATH, or the medium price at which bitcoins will be traded until next bull run.  

You think the next bullrun will just result to have less than $20K only?

While part of me wanted to agree about it I can also see the bulls are already starting early as JAN2020 and halving hasn't started yet. My guess is that the bulls will keep the rally up to 2021 til the coins are all generated by miners. They are all going to rely from then on to the transaction fees which means less supply of BTC in the market.

[samcrypto]

I don't know why you predict Bitcoin price could go up to $ 400,000 after halving. That's a crazy price when compared to the present, the current bitcoin price is only $ 8600 and even more likely it will continue to drop before the halving begins. Bitcoin can reach $ 400,000 but I think it will need at least 10-20 years more

This will take time since the prediction is high and bitcoin can’t just depend on halving but if all the country make bitcoin legal and support this one maybe in just 5 years we are already on this level. We’re down after a short pump, and we are getting near to the halving period let’s hope for a positive result and a big pump this year.

[bamboylee]

Like what most investors say, past performance does not assure future performance. It is the same with bitcoin. Even if past halving has given way for bitcoin price to rise exponentially, it does not mean it will be the same this time around.

[Myfe]

When the price can rise to $25k-$35k, many people will be happy because they can make a lot of money, and they can also recover their losses before.

And when people recover their losses they sell their bitcoin, that's the only way to recover losses!

No matter what it is, the price will adjust again like usual, and we don't know how much the price will be down, and perhaps, the price will adjust to $10k-$15k.

Recovery takes a long, long time. We still haven't recovered from the last price peak in late 2017 at $20k...so two solid years have gone by and we're still suffering from that bull run. Perspective is everything, it was nice to see a positive 2019, but people that bought Bitcoin in the fall of 2017 are still down by tens of percent...it's tough to hodl out for recovery gains. Most of these people would be better off selling their losses!

But prediction will be a prediction, and we are free to say how much bitcoin price will increase and announce to all people in social media.

And predictions don't mean anything without a logical, fact-based rationale to support it. Most predictions about bitcoin are merely guesses, no more, no less.

[windjc]

As someone who has been around since early 2013, it’s amusing to drop in and read a thread like this. Will the halving have a positive effect on price? Yes, most likely. Will the price go to $400k sometime before the halving in 2024? Yes, it’s possible. Based on the dozens of models and hundreds of data points I’ve seen, $80k-$220k would be a more probable range of the next cycle ATH.

[karanggatak]

I don't believe much on technical analysis and prediction like this one. Looking fundamentally, there are more factors to consider in predicting the price. One thing to note is that the hype has already faded significantly and the awareness has increased, and therefore not all new investors would hop in to Bitcoin just like the early times, because they already knew some background to it.

Also, the argument stated that the % of increase per halving is also decreasing, from 13k% to 12k%. From their arguments that it would increase exponentially, we could also apply the same on the % of gains per halving, and can also conclude that it would drop its % by a significant amount.

I agree with you, I think bitcoin won't reach a high price because the bitcoin hype has passed. most people already understand about bitcoin price fluctuations. there is a possibility to go up because half bitcoin will make a fixed or increased demand but the supply decreases. this will make the price of bitcoin go up. but in my opinion it won't be too high. my estimate of the price that bitcoin can achieve after halving is $ 15,000.

[bitcoindusts]

I don't believe much on technical analysis and prediction like this one. Looking fundamentally, there are more factors to consider in predicting the price. One thing to note is that the hype has already faded significantly and the awareness has increased, and therefore not all new investors would hop in to Bitcoin just like the early times, because they already knew some background to it.

Also, the argument stated that the % of increase per halving is also decreasing, from 13k% to 12k%. From their arguments that it would increase exponentially, we could also apply the same on the % of gains per halving, and can also conclude that it would drop its % by a significant amount.

I agree with you, I think bitcoin won't reach a high price because the bitcoin hype has passed. most people already understand about bitcoin price fluctuations. there is a possibility to go up because half bitcoin will make a fixed or increased demand but the supply decreases. this will make the price of bitcoin go up. but in my opinion it won't be too high. my estimate of the price that bitcoin can achieve after halving is $ 15,000.

That is a reasonable price and very reachable for Bitcoin too.  Aside from that, as OP is talking about History and making a prediction due to percentage gain on the price, there is also this history of Bitcoin of people exaggerating price of Bitcoin in their prediction and this one stated of OP is another one written on history as exaggerated Bitcoin price prediction.