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The dismal economic outlook from the US Federal Reserve and the state of the million coronaviruses in the US still make the economic outlook largely uncertain.
All of these variables led to US stocks falling at the close, as all three indicators recorded their worst performance since March 16


"We cannot close the economy again. I think we have learned that if you shut down the economy, it will do more damage, not just economic damage, but there are other regions," according to CNBC Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.

What are your expectations for the third and last quarter of this year?

Source ---> https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/investing/global-stocks-coronavirus-fed/index.html

It would depend on the fiscal policies that would be implemented during that time as well as the general sentiment towards the nation's economic state. The president is doing everything to keep the latter positive by suggesting they are on the brink of a recovery, but people are going to need more than words to convince them of that.
The article also reported that they plan on pumping in a trillion dollars into the economy over the next month to stimulate it, but the current rise in covid-19 cases could negate the effect. If spending remains low, more businesses would close and loans would be defaulted.

Over the next two quarters, the U.S and global markets would likely continue to contract. More jobs may be gained, but unemployment would still be high. A vaccine being developed during this period however could change that.

I'm expecting the next phase of the US decision to be on massive job creation because closing down the economy has led to job cut which has a dwindling effect on the economy. Therefore, for a rapid and multiplier effect jobs have to be generated so that it will cushion the hardship in turn boost the country's gdp.

I would be expecting to see lot of rehabilitation going on, the government would focus on rebuilding those areas which was crippled by the corona virus, also about very excited about the forth coming US presidential election, it would be the climax of activities going on in the US -if another great outbreak of the virus doesn't stop it- .
I think the citizens would be able to have accessed this present government and how they where able to handle economical matters -even at a time like this- but I don't see much economical growth, just sustaining measures to rebuild what was lost already to the pandemic.

I think a recession is long due these days, the economy was showing signs of overheating and the money the Fed pumped in the system only made it worse. I also think the US economy cannot withstand another shutdown without directly entering in a recession cycle. The current administration is probably doing everything it can to avoid this (or at least delay it), but at the end I think the recession will come no matter what happens.

See the problem is the government cannot control the protests until and unless they do something about it . The government is not gonna make any new law. They are unfortunately led by a racist leader . Even if they shut the economy down , people will still exercise their rights and it is important!!

They don't have any access to masks and other stuff. People are even hoarding toilet paper and baby products , this quarantine is causing nothing but suffering for the people.

One cannot just implement the quarantine like this . They need to have SYSTEMATIC QUARANTINE! If they do remove the quarantine it would be bad for the economy and the people for the long run .

They need to make new laws example:
1. One person would be allowed to work for the family.
2. Government needs to provide incentives NOT FOR THE PEOPLE who are able to take care of their families and are earning well , but for those who are now actually not even able to register for the incentives.
3. Around 1.54 million people are jobless now , they don't need to give them incentives but JOBS!

This quarantine should be Removed in stages and they need to increase their speed of testing !

Seriously they need better people to guide them !

But then you still have to listen to what these 'better people' tell you ... There's the problem.

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The whole situation seems really weird. Until yesterday you could've come to the conclusion that the US economy brushes off the first Coronavirus crash as if nothing ever happend when you check the US stock market. And yet there are millions of Americans signing for unemployment. This whole recovery at the stock market at that pace was so irrational. I don't believe we have seen the full effect of this (still ongoing) crisis yet, so I am not overly optimistic for the third and fourth quarter of this year.

But this isn't only for the US economy. Here in Germany we have something called 'Kurzarbeitergeld' where the government basically pays (a part) of the salary so that the employer doesn't have to fire his employees. In May 7.3 million employees received this Kurzarbeitergeld. What will happen with them when the government won't pay their salaray anymore?! Another example is the Lufthansa, which is about to receive a 9 bilion bailout from the German government, all this while planning to cut more than 20.000 jobs. So I am pretty sure we haven't seen the scale of effects of the Coronavirus shutdowns at all.

@hugeblack the key reason that they’re not keen on extending the lockdown is, because of the current state of the US economy which has remained neutral despite several economic activities opening up.

Furthermore the US labor department yesterday announced that another 1.5 million people, have filed their claims for unemployment benefits, and this is another reason why the lawmakers are not keen on extending the lockdown.

Lastly Jerome Powell chair of the Federal Reserve has claimed that people will find it very difficult to get meaningful employment opportunities, hence the lawmakers are trying to keep the economy open, otherwise people won’t be able to find job opportunities, and they’ll continue to remain unemployed which will further hurt the US economy.




Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/11/us-economy-unemployment-us-states

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-reopen-analysis/a-month-into-reopening-no-clear-turn-for-u-s-economy-or-pandemic-idUSKBN23I303

Placing any restrictions on who can work during a time when you're trying to encourage people to work seems counter-productive.

Also, I'm not sure that would be very practical to implement.  If you only allow one worker per household, what would you do with a couple if they both worked as doctors, for example?  Are you going to tell one of those doctors that they can't save lives during a pandemic?

More people should be equipped to work from home where possible.  Those who have to work in a place that need to deal with people in person should be provided with all the necessary protective equipment to keep them safe and distance should be maintained wherever possible.  Most countries are getting it right, but the US and UK in particular have handled it abysmally.  It's only natural that their economies are being hit harder than others as a result.

US economy is really affected and they are struggling right now, do you think that they can recover that fast? Being shut down economically is not a surprise for them because they underestimated the struggle and tragedy that this virus can do to us. For me, IMO, the US government is not that responsible enough especially the President.

They will not experience this kind of huge increase in cases if he warned all of his citizen before the Covid-19 entered their country. Right now, they are suffering economically because of the lockdown, they just make this pandemic worse for them.

Hopefully they can recover from that recession and people use cryptocurrency in transactions so that the money circulates to the market.

In my opinion the fallbacks due to the virus are going to happen no matter what. If a country chooses to apply a strict lockdown, the virus will be an annoyance for several months, while a country with little rules on lockdown will accomplish herd immunity faster. The only people that should really have been in quarantine were the older and at risk people. I don't think society will benefit much by quarantining healthy people.

But I'm no scientist on this topic  ;D

Yes, the current administration is doing everything to delay the recession as this is the high time for elections and Trump doesn't want this kind of blunder on his side as this will destroy his chances of getting elected again and the opposition will surely win without any difficulties at all. So it will be best for him to avoid this defeat by postponing the recession and will deal with it after the elections. But another shutdown will be the final nail in his coffin as a lot of people are already pissed after the first lockdown and still there isn't any control on the spread of COVID till now.

For what I can see we're still very far away from seeing the full effects of the economic crisis that is coming, the coronavirus whether we like it or not has shifted the priorities of people and this is not going to change just because the government lifted the lockdown, many sectors are going to be deeply affected by this change in the priorities of people, even if people want to return to normal as soon as possible in the back of their minds they know that is not true, the virus is still with us and all the people that lost their jobs are not going to get them back that easily, so I really expect that the next two quarters are going to be even more negative not only for the economy of the United States but the world in general.

That is also a bit factor I had in mind. I don't know if the recession (if there is any) will hit as hard as it did in 2008, but if it does during Trump's presidency, it will be very difficult for him to be re-elected. I just don't hope he pushes to much money into the system, because at the end the tax payer will probably have to pay the bill...

Why would they shut it down? It is a political thing and right now republicans are controlling the senate and they have a republican and crazy president. You would think health is a bipartisan thing but unfortunately it is not. Look at outside in USA, in anywhere you go people who are arguing against masks are people who would vote for Trump, people who are protesting lockdowns are all who would vote for trump. Is democrats are any different?

Practically speaking they are not, George Floyd has been murdered by a cop and it is definitely something to riot and protest about in any other normal period and I agree with them, however right now there is a pandemic yet they are out protesting very close to each other. Yet when you tell them there is a risk at least they do believe you instead of calling the virus a fraud.

Coronavirus is a hoax.
Stop falling for commie lies.

i'm seeing contradictory messages from the trump administration. according to the CDC earlier today: (https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/12/cdc-may-reimplement-strict-coronavirus-rules-if-cases-go-up-dramatically.html)


it's really not up to mnuchin or trump. the CDC is acknowledging that decisions re lockdowns will continue to be made at the local level. if cases continue rising like this, then some governors are eventually gonna shut things down again.

if that happens, it's gonna crush the markets and any hope for a sustained economic recovery.


the same logic that brought the lockdowns in the first place: an exponential rise in cases can lead to the health care system being overrun. at that point, non-coronavirus urgent care will become neglected, leading to a much higher death toll than the epidemic would cause alone.

Well, considering the US unemployment rates also reduced in the US last month, shutting down economy won't do any good. Also because, even if they do shut down, people will still protest/go out and not listen to their government. Classic 'Murica.

As for my expectations for Q3 and Q4, i want to say its going to be comparatively better than Q1 and Q2, for sure. But it could be a total miss, given everything happening in the US right now. If the protests don't end, or if another catastrophe is to strike, I am afraid that things won't be as good as we want them to be.

The problem is what sector that will create a massive job that you have describe? Every industry has been affected, and to get the economy moving again, business should open. But with the social distancing, I don't think that the economy will create more jobs.

So it's going to be a slow process in the US and we don't expect a recovery for this year. And there's also the possibility of second wave of pandemic, so very difficult situation not just for US economy but globally.

The current economical situation all around the world is not doing that well at all, I doubt people from USA would even argue about opening back up even if the cases are getting higher and higher. I personally would love to see it shutdown because that way you would have a lot less people dying, but we have to be realistic, if you close and lockdown everyone once again for few more months, you are going to have people die of starvation and an economical situation that is irreversible.

So, at one hand you have people dying right now which is horrible but after a while recovering and going back to normal, on the other hand you have less people dying at first which is great but having an economical situation where people will never recover from it and at the end people would start to die and you can't stop that one.

Electrions are coming soon and Trump really doesn't want to have them during a deep recession and unemployment crisis. There probably will be some attempts to cover up the coronavirus death toll in the US to make it look like things are under control.

My country recently stopped our quarantine, and a week after that new cases and deaths are at all time high, and it's quite worrying. The same might happen with the US.

This is not a lie. We are in a situation where we have to choose between closing down the economy and staying indoors or going outside and facing the risk of Covid-19. Seriously, people can’t stay indoors, it’s not possible because first they need to earn money so they need to go out and even if the have some saving then also they need to go out at least for buying vegetable and milk and ect.

In my country we have tried the lockdown for more than a month and things keeps getting worse; the economy is falling and people are still getting infected and number running up despite the lockdown, so it doesn’t make any sense. It is best that we all go outside and face it. They need to open up the economy and people can look for ways to stay safe and that’s it. God is going to help the world in this tough situation.

We are already counting a huge economic recession for 2020.
I don't think that any economy is going to close again during this year because this would mean a global collapse. Especially economies like US or Chinese cannot be shut down for the global good.

infrastructure---road, bridge, etc building. that's a classic job creation stimulus technique that trump has shown great fondness for. e-commerce (amazon and other online shopping + delivery venues) is always growing fast in these times. the government could find ways to incentivize large scale e-commerce employers to expand their payrolls.


it's already happening. the rise in cases seems to be worst in states that reopened early. in some places this can be blamed on more testing, but in others hospitalizations and deaths are clearly rising which is quite worrisome. https://apnews.com/feb4c26d9364497cf82ee7c0c1b1b3d5

Is there a new normal term in America?

In my country the government imposes new normal. The government opened quarantine and started to revive the economy by opening shopping centers and markets even though the number of corona sufferers continued to increase even before reaching the culmination point. Lockdown is enough to educate the brain and people's behavior in dealing with corona in the hope of creating new habits (safe and secure in a corona pandemic). So the economy can begin to be driven despite many limitations. This is because the government realizes that the longer the economy stops the harder it is to push it back up.



Indeed the infrastructure development sector is still a megaproject that can bring many industries and supporting services to life. It's just that in the present conditions with a budget deficit, infrastructure projects cannot be a solution.

In addition to thinking about the current conditions, especially large companies that mass dismissals, the government must also answer the continued challenge that many industries are trying to increase productivity with artificial technology and artificial intelligence which will certainly increase unemployment.

So the government must be keen to develop businesses that are easily developed and absorb a lot of labor. In my country, small and medium businesses are the sectors that absorb the most workforce, so leading small and medium businesses that have good prospects and use local products can be scaled up by expanding branches and combined with integrated digital platforms ranging from logistics, distribution, stock, systems communication, payment, etc.

I doubt they require to shut down if its been as ineffective as I think, the better idea is to make sure people keep a distance.   This also seems to be failing in many cases, people fail to grasp the idea of not spreading something which has no real cure.    Theres way too much debt for a shutdown so I pretty much too late its been botched, best solution now is to adapt and restrain close contact.   That means some business cannot throw 20 people into a small room any more, space will be a premium and it'll get worse in the winter when people cant use the warm out doors so much in every state.
   I've still not heard about containtment of the worst outbreaks, thats the alternate I expect where roads in and out of towns are shut and people warned to reduce contact.  To me that sounds reasonable, we still have bubonic plague and rabies as lethal naturally occuring disease and this virus spreads more quickly to some extent.  Control is always an option required where the risk in an area is high.

Two days after the Treasury Secretary said this, multiple US states are pausing reopening plans, with local officials warning that new stay-at-home orders may be coming: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/12/states-cities-pause-reopening-coronavirus-infections-rise-315720

Bears will have a field day if full blown lockdowns return. If last week's stock market dump is any indication, BTC will follow too.

The economy will be worse before it gets better. It's always in a cycle, like Bitcoin as an example, it must accumulate during 4 and 5 digits, before it can reach 6 digits. 8)

Live of one person is not cost a lot in terms of the whole country. Thats why i dont think that we will see another one shutdown soon

I do not support the system, but it is how it is - capitalism makes the choice much easier
$billions > lives of hundreds of people

The U.S. government needs a concrete plan on how they will be handling the next two quarters or even the following year because there is no assurance that this pandemic will end this year. They need a plan on how they should handle those increasing COVID cases and what they need to do to help their people, especially those who lost their jobs during the pandemic.

America is a developed country, and they are more likely to be able to fight against the pandemic. What I mean is that looking at how other countries like Korea and China manage to flatten their curves, America can also do that. They just need to make a better plan that will benefit everyone without risking their economy.

In fact, a strange situation - the growth of the diseased is growing, but at the same time borders are opening and people are released from quarantine. it’s not clear why everything was started? Is it not for the purpose of collapsing the economy of all countries? maybe soon we will see a new world leader.

Shutting down USA economy again will spell a greater danger for The states economy and will great the USA other. I hope they don't take this line.

I guess U.S.A was right closing the economy would just worsen the crisis from their country, just take a look at the funds were allocated for their citizens, benefits for 21 million workers who paused for working.
Shutting down or not there will and there would be people dying from the virus, I'm not saying that it's okay, I'm saying that it is normal for us to suffer and sacrifice in order to continue our living. It's a world dilemma actually, die due to the corona virus or die in hunger.

This is the problem on which all of the government are facing, there is afflicting factors to consider the living of the people which they are taking seriously and needs to choose from the option.


I just hope that we are going to find the cure so we can get back to normal, new normal rather.

budget deficit or not, trump now wants "at least" $2 trillion in another stimulus bill: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/politics/navarro-white-house-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html

it's funny---the stock market takes a dump and all of sudden trump wants another huge stimulus package, much bigger than what senate republicans want. :D

his focus now is apparently on manufacturing though, not infrastructure.

I don't think this is a question of protests, racism, and police brutality.  Those things won't cause a shutdown, but serious health risks like COVID-19 already did cause one and certainly could again.  Imagine if the mortality rate of the virus was higher and people were absolutely terrified of physical contact with each other.  Imagine if the government had to force people to go back to work.  We'd be in some serious shit at that point, and IMO we lucked out with the coronavirus because it could have been much, much worse.

I find it very interesting that it didn't take long at all for the stock market to recover.  I'm wondering how much of that is shut-ins gambling their stimulus checks away and how much is actually sustainable.  I would imagine earnings for the next couple of quarters at least are going to be lower for a lot of companies than they were at the same time last year.  So we'll see.

yeah my thoughts match you quite a bit.  I actually think that Oct the true second wave of virus will hit and be worse then the first wave.
I see 2-3 million dead world wide by new years.

A lot depends on Trump winning vs losing. If trump loses biden will come in and try to pick up the pieces of a shattered country much like Obama did with bush.

But if Trump wins again I see really bad things happening. Maybe a large kill off of people in the tens of millions.

Do you think it would be different in communism or monarchy?

People always weren't the first choice, the system doesn't really matter there's always those who rule and those who are ruled, even if the proper term changes from ruled to governed.

The stimulating stimulus for productive manufacturing development is one of the effective strategies implemented in the current pandemic. The stimulus should be for the real sector and productive industry not for direct cash assistance to create demand. This cannot be done because the American stimulus uses money printing. Money printing can only be for the productive sector and manufacturing should not be intended for trade and for direct cash assistance.

At this time Trump and his administration must be completely honest about the position of the American economy and how much active manufacturing machinery is above 50% or below 50%. If an active industrial machine above 50%, printing money strategy with project-based is still effective. But if industrial machinery works below 50%, it must be upgraded to independent industrial manufactures that do not use imported raw materials and all of them are domestic raw materials. Mismanagement of the economy will cause a vicious economic cycle that will bring down the economy in a land that is not instantaneous.

No they won´t but on the other side, they need a second wave so urgently to justify all the measurements and new laws they came up recently. It´s not only an US problem but pretty much everywhere else on the planet too. Remember Tamiflu? The medication they developed against the H1N1 swine flu in 2010. European countries invest 3 billion USD to buy this medication and nobody used it because it wasn´t very useful and the side effects caused more harm than good. Now it´s the same with Covid medications. A conglomerate of EU countries already bought 300M dosis of Covid medication again nobody with a straight mind would use. They just could force us, which unfortunately is possible since they used the crisis to establish new laws that would make this possible. History just repeats itself, and again a health care issue is used for governmental bailouts and debt discharge.

I honestly would just pray for the US citizens right now and hope that Trump actually makes a move worthy enough for the title of President. You can basically describe the position of the government as stuck between a rock and a hard place, and continuing, the government instead of trying to get out, is actually just making it basically worse for them by making themselves more and more stuck in there. It's like a juggling act where they're forced to use one hand cause they tied the other hand up themselves.

If the virus was actually worse than it is right now, I doubt governments of various countries would have allowed it to spread this badly. But sadly, it wasn't, and that was probably the point that allowed it to spread this wide. They probably thought they could curb it easily, considering how it is transmitted.

Rather grim. I don't disagree. The experience of the Spanish Flu (where the second wave was much deadlier than the first) seems to apply here. Everybody is sort of acting like the pandemic is over even as the data tells the opposite.


Payrolls in the US have been maintained through a similar program of forgivable loans to eligible companies. Funds for that program are about to run out, and the extended unemployment benefits passed in March are set to expire next month. It'll be interesting to see what happens since Senate Republicans don't want to renew that unemployment provision and generally want to phase out earlier stimulus benefits.

It’s getting difficult. You can’t be in your house doing nothing, even if you Netflix and do all those things they tell you to do you will eventually get bored, no matter what. People will want to go out, being indoors is becoming really annoying for them. Do you know the most annoying thing? We are staying in our houses to stop the Coronavirus, but the cases are not even going down, you check online and the numbers are still counting and that includes the number of people that dying. This is nonsense, it’s best we go back to work than stay hungry and die out of hunger. Doesn’t make any sense ::).

In my country also government is slowly lifting out the restrictions on lockdown. There is lockdown is on force but we can do some more things other than going for shops and hospitals. Industry and vehicles are allowed to operate which might get chances for people to earn rather than starving.

Community quarantine is a torture to everyone because you can't go out if you wan't ,you can't buy what you want and you can't go to work or school because you need to follow the government "Stay at Home" for the sake of the people. US economy is stronger than this covid-19 virus but if the US government or even the other country remove quarantine and allow people to go out to buy or to work,i think it become more worst for the virus to spread unceasing.
Even the government impose another law to follow just minimize the virus spreading,it could be difficult because people always needs foods and other necessities which i think government can't supply for a long period of time if pandemic can't be stopped.
People are literally hard headed which always find a way to do what they want despite of government law.
So,i think much better if Government will allow even one person per family to work in order to survive and provide their needs.
In my country,there is a financial assistance from the government and to give to the poorest of the poor but sadly not all who's in need received it. IMO, instead of financial aid,much better for the government to supply foods and other necessities rather than a cash,so that they will not argue to the government and forced to go out to work. If people has their needs i think they will follow the Stay at home and we can control the spread of the virus.

Had no idea that the US had something similar to this but I must admit I wasn't following the situation in the United States very closely. With this in mind, headlines like 'Unemployment rose higher in three months of COVID-19 than it did in two years of the Great Recession' (Source (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/06/11/unemployment-rose-higher-in-three-months-of-covid-19-than-it-did-in-two-years-of-the-great-recession)) even look more worrisome. And that the umemployment rate, against all expectations, dropped in May is already confirmed to be just an calculation error (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/10/unemployment-error-fix/).

As you said, it will be now crucial how the government decides to go on with the unemployment provision. If they don't renew it and the lockdown restrictions still have to stay in place, there'll be even more employees getting layed off I am afraid.

Without doubt, they shouldn't shut down economy. Did it had any benefit? Why no one is looking for adverse effect that this economic shut down gave to us? Nowadays it's very hard to get blood for transfusion for those who really need it. A lot of people had lost their jobs and in overall life of quality is decreasing because of fall in economics and I want to mention again that your health and wellbeing depends on economic situation too, they are linked on each other so saying that why do I need good economy if I die because of corona virus, then I want to remind you what I said above + you can build immunity to COVID-19, not to hunger.

So it doesn't worth to shut down US economy again, in any way it's not a deal and majority of people won't be able to handle it and on long term this pause will bring us a bad future.

Do not close the economy. This will only lead to more decline in the economy. And people will be sick. I think that the authorities understand the complexity of the situation, and what decision they did not make (leave quarantine or leave it), everyone will condemn their action.