US economy wouldn't be shut down again despite the rising case count

[hatshepsut93]

Electrions are coming soon and Trump really doesn't want to have them during a deep recession and unemployment crisis. There probably will be some attempts to cover up the coronavirus death toll in the US to make it look like things are under control.

My country recently stopped our quarantine, and a week after that new cases and deaths are at all time high, and it's quite worrying. The same might happen with the US.

[TheGreatPython]

This is not a lie. We are in a situation where we have to choose between closing down the economy and staying indoors or going outside and facing the risk of Covid-19. Seriously, people can’t stay indoors, it’s not possible because first they need to earn money so they need to go out and even if the have some saving then also they need to go out at least for buying vegetable and milk and ect.

In my country we have tried the lockdown for more than a month and things keeps getting worse; the economy is falling and people are still getting infected and number running up despite the lockdown, so it doesn’t make any sense. It is best that we all go outside and face it. They need to open up the economy and people can look for ways to stay safe and that’s it. God is going to help the world in this tough situation.

[Naida_BR]

We are already counting a huge economic recession for 2020.
I don't think that any economy is going to close again during this year because this would mean a global collapse. Especially economies like US or Chinese cannot be shut down for the global good.

[figmentofmyass]

I'm expecting the next phase of the US decision to be on massive job creation because closing down the economy has led to job cut which has a dwindling effect on the economy. Therefore, for a rapid and multiplier effect jobs have to be generated so that it will cushion the hardship in turn boost the country's gdp.

The problem is what sector that will create a massive job that you have describe? Every industry has been affected, and to get the economy moving again, business should open. But with the social distancing, I don't think that the economy will create more jobs.

infrastructure---road, bridge, etc building. that's a classic job creation stimulus technique that trump has shown great fondness for. e-commerce (amazon and other online shopping + delivery venues) is always growing fast in these times. the government could find ways to incentivize large scale e-commerce employers to expand their payrolls.

Electrions are coming soon and Trump really doesn't want to have them during a deep recession and unemployment crisis. There probably will be some attempts to cover up the coronavirus death toll in the US to make it look like things are under control.

My country recently stopped our quarantine, and a week after that new cases and deaths are at all time high, and it's quite worrying. The same might happen with the US.

it's already happening. the rise in cases seems to be worst in states that reopened early. in some places this can be blamed on more testing, but in others hospitalizations and deaths are clearly rising which is quite worrisome. https://apnews.com/feb4c26d9364497cf82ee7c0c1b1b3d5

[abhiseshakana]

This is not a lie. We are in a situation where we have to choose between closing down the economy and staying indoors or going outside and facing the risk of Covid-19. Seriously, people can’t stay indoors, it’s not possible because first they need to earn money so they need to go out and even if the have some saving then also they need to go out at least for buying vegetable and milk and ect.

In my country we have tried the lockdown for more than a month and things keeps getting worse; the economy is falling and people are still getting infected and number running up despite the lockdown, so it doesn’t make any sense. It is best that we all go outside and face it. They need to open up the economy and people can look for ways to stay safe and that’s it. God is going to help the world in this tough situation.

Is there a new normal term in America?

In my country the government imposes new normal. The government opened quarantine and started to revive the economy by opening shopping centers and markets even though the number of corona sufferers continued to increase even before reaching the culmination point. Lockdown is enough to educate the brain and people's behavior in dealing with corona in the hope of creating new habits (safe and secure in a corona pandemic). So the economy can begin to be driven despite many limitations. This is because the government realizes that the longer the economy stops the harder it is to push it back up.

infrastructure---road, bridge, etc building. that's a classic job creation stimulus technique that trump has shown great fondness for. e-commerce (amazon and other online shopping + delivery venues) is always growing fast in these times. the government could find ways to incentivize large scale e-commerce employers to expand their payrolls.

Indeed the infrastructure development sector is still a megaproject that can bring many industries and supporting services to life. It's just that in the present conditions with a budget deficit, infrastructure projects cannot be a solution.

In addition to thinking about the current conditions, especially large companies that mass dismissals, the government must also answer the continued challenge that many industries are trying to increase productivity with artificial technology and artificial intelligence which will certainly increase unemployment.

So the government must be keen to develop businesses that are easily developed and absorb a lot of labor. In my country, small and medium businesses are the sectors that absorb the most workforce, so leading small and medium businesses that have good prospects and use local products can be scaled up by expanding branches and combined with integrated digital platforms ranging from logistics, distribution, stock, systems communication, payment, etc.

[STT]

I doubt they require to shut down if its been as ineffective as I think, the better idea is to make sure people keep a distance.   This also seems to be failing in many cases, people fail to grasp the idea of not spreading something which has no real cure.    Theres way too much debt for a shutdown so I pretty much too late its been botched, best solution now is to adapt and restrain close contact.   That means some business cannot throw 20 people into a small room any more, space will be a premium and it'll get worse in the winter when people cant use the warm out doors so much in every state.
   I've still not heard about containtment of the worst outbreaks, thats the alternate I expect where roads in and out of towns are shut and people warned to reduce contact.  To me that sounds reasonable, we still have bubonic plague and rabies as lethal naturally occuring disease and this virus spreads more quickly to some extent.  Control is always an option required where the risk in an area is high.

[exstasie]

"We can't shut down the economy again. I think we've learned that if you shut down the economy, you're going to create more damage, and not just economic damage, but there are other areas," he told CNBC in an interview.

Two days after the Treasury Secretary said this, multiple US states are pausing reopening plans, with local officials warning that new stay-at-home orders may be coming: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/12/states-cities-pause-reopening-coronavirus-infections-rise-315720

Bears will have a field day if full blown lockdowns return. If last week's stock market dump is any indication, BTC will follow too.

[Wind_FURY]

What are your expectations for the third and last quarter of this year?

Source ---> https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/investing/global-stocks-coronavirus-fed/index.html

The economy will be worse before it gets better. It's always in a cycle, like Bitcoin as an example, it must accumulate during 4 and 5 digits, before it can reach 6 digits.

[santiagomaicon]

Live of one person is not cost a lot in terms of the whole country. Thats why i dont think that we will see another one shutdown soon

[sedov1966]

Live of one person is not cost a lot in terms of the whole country. Thats why i dont think that we will see another one shutdown soon

I do not support the system, but it is how it is - capitalism makes the choice much easier
$billions > lives of hundreds of people

[plvbob0070]

The U.S. government needs a concrete plan on how they will be handling the next two quarters or even the following year because there is no assurance that this pandemic will end this year. They need a plan on how they should handle those increasing COVID cases and what they need to do to help their people, especially those who lost their jobs during the pandemic.

America is a developed country, and they are more likely to be able to fight against the pandemic. What I mean is that looking at how other countries like Korea and China manage to flatten their curves, America can also do that. They just need to make a better plan that will benefit everyone without risking their economy.

[PavelMed]

Electrions are coming soon and Trump really doesn't want to have them during a deep recession and unemployment crisis. There probably will be some attempts to cover up the coronavirus death toll in the US to make it look like things are under control.

My country recently stopped our quarantine, and a week after that new cases and deaths are at all time high, and it's quite worrying. The same might happen with the US.

In fact, a strange situation - the growth of the diseased is growing, but at the same time borders are opening and people are released from quarantine. it’s not clear why everything was started? Is it not for the purpose of collapsing the economy of all countries? maybe soon we will see a new world leader.

[omone1]

Shutting down USA economy again will spell a greater danger for The states economy and will great the USA other. I hope they don't take this line.

[Yatsan]

The current economical situation all around the world is not doing that well at all, I doubt people from USA would even argue about opening back up even if the cases are getting higher and higher. I personally would love to see it shutdown because that way you would have a lot less people dying, but we have to be realistic, if you close and lockdown everyone once again for few more months, you are going to have people die of starvation and an economical situation that is irreversible.

I guess U.S.A was right closing the economy would just worsen the crisis from their country, just take a look at the funds were allocated for their citizens, benefits for 21 million workers who paused for working.
Shutting down or not there will and there would be people dying from the virus, I'm not saying that it's okay, I'm saying that it is normal for us to suffer and sacrifice in order to continue our living. It's a world dilemma actually, die due to the corona virus or die in hunger.

So, at one hand you have people dying right now which is horrible but after a while recovering and going back to normal, on the other hand you have less people dying at first which is great but having an economical situation where people will never recover from it and at the end people would start to die and you can't stop that one.

This is the problem on which all of the government are facing, there is afflicting factors to consider the living of the people which they are taking seriously and needs to choose from the option.


I just hope that we are going to find the cure so we can get back to normal, new normal rather.

[figmentofmyass]

infrastructure---road, bridge, etc building. that's a classic job creation stimulus technique that trump has shown great fondness for. e-commerce (amazon and other online shopping + delivery venues) is always growing fast in these times. the government could find ways to incentivize large scale e-commerce employers to expand their payrolls.

Indeed the infrastructure development sector is still a megaproject that can bring many industries and supporting services to life. It's just that in the present conditions with a budget deficit, infrastructure projects cannot be a solution.

budget deficit or not, trump now wants "at least" $2 trillion in another stimulus bill: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/politics/navarro-white-house-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html

it's funny---the stock market takes a dump and all of sudden trump wants another huge stimulus package, much bigger than what senate republicans want.

his focus now is apparently on manufacturing though, not infrastructure.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

See the problem is the government cannot control the protests until and unless they do something about it . The government is not gonna make any new law. They are unfortunately led by a racist leader .

I don't think this is a question of protests, racism, and police brutality.  Those things won't cause a shutdown, but serious health risks like COVID-19 already did cause one and certainly could again.  Imagine if the mortality rate of the virus was higher and people were absolutely terrified of physical contact with each other.  Imagine if the government had to force people to go back to work.  We'd be in some serious shit at that point, and IMO we lucked out with the coronavirus because it could have been much, much worse.

I find it very interesting that it didn't take long at all for the stock market to recover.  I'm wondering how much of that is shut-ins gambling their stimulus checks away and how much is actually sustainable.  I would imagine earnings for the next couple of quarters at least are going to be lower for a lot of companies than they were at the same time last year.  So we'll see.

[philipma1957]

[...]
Seriously they need better people to guide them !

But then you still have to listen to what these 'better people' tell you ... There's the problem.


The whole situation seems really weird. Until yesterday you could've come to the conclusion that the US economy brushes off the first Coronavirus crash as if nothing ever happend when you check the US stock market. And yet there are millions of Americans signing for unemployment. This whole recovery at the stock market at that pace was so irrational. I don't believe we have seen the full effect of this (still ongoing) crisis yet, so I am not overly optimistic for the third and fourth quarter of this year.

But this isn't only for the US economy. Here in Germany we have something called 'Kurzarbeitergeld' where the government basically pays (a part) of the salary so that the employer doesn't have to fire his employees. In May 7.3 million employees received this Kurzarbeitergeld. What will happen with them when the government won't pay their salaray anymore?! Another example is the Lufthansa, which is about to receive a 9 bilion bailout from the German government, all this while planning to cut more than 20.000 jobs. So I am pretty sure we haven't seen the scale of effects of the Coronavirus shutdowns at all.

yeah my thoughts match you quite a bit.  I actually think that Oct the true second wave of virus will hit and be worse then the first wave.
I see 2-3 million dead world wide by new years.

A lot depends on Trump winning vs losing. If trump loses biden will come in and try to pick up the pieces of a shattered country much like Obama did with bush.

But if Trump wins again I see really bad things happening. Maybe a large kill off of people in the tens of millions.

[pixie85]

Live of one person is not cost a lot in terms of the whole country. Thats why i dont think that we will see another one shutdown soon

I do not support the system, but it is how it is - capitalism makes the choice much easier
$billions > lives of hundreds of people

Do you think it would be different in communism or monarchy?

People always weren't the first choice, the system doesn't really matter there's always those who rule and those who are ruled, even if the proper term changes from ruled to governed.

[abhiseshakana]

budget deficit or not, trump now wants "at least" $2 trillion in another stimulus bill: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/13/politics/navarro-white-house-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html

it's funny---the stock market takes a dump and all of sudden trump wants another huge stimulus package, much bigger than what senate republicans want.

his focus now is apparently on manufacturing though, not infrastructure.

The stimulating stimulus for productive manufacturing development is one of the effective strategies implemented in the current pandemic. The stimulus should be for the real sector and productive industry not for direct cash assistance to create demand. This cannot be done because the American stimulus uses money printing. Money printing can only be for the productive sector and manufacturing should not be intended for trade and for direct cash assistance.

At this time Trump and his administration must be completely honest about the position of the American economy and how much active manufacturing machinery is above 50% or below 50%. If an active industrial machine above 50%, printing money strategy with project-based is still effective. But if industrial machinery works below 50%, it must be upgraded to independent industrial manufactures that do not use imported raw materials and all of them are domestic raw materials. Mismanagement of the economy will cause a vicious economic cycle that will bring down the economy in a land that is not instantaneous.

[DoubleEdgeEX]

No they won´t but on the other side, they need a second wave so urgently to justify all the measurements and new laws they came up recently. It´s not only an US problem but pretty much everywhere else on the planet too. Remember Tamiflu? The medication they developed against the H1N1 swine flu in 2010. European countries invest 3 billion USD to buy this medication and nobody used it because it wasn´t very useful and the side effects caused more harm than good. Now it´s the same with Covid medications. A conglomerate of EU countries already bought 300M dosis of Covid medication again nobody with a straight mind would use. They just could force us, which unfortunately is possible since they used the crisis to establish new laws that would make this possible. History just repeats itself, and again a health care issue is used for governmental bailouts and debt discharge.