Bitcoin Forum

Financial Risk Analytics   (http://financialriskanalytics.weebly.com/daily-blog.html)

As of right now its a multiple of 4. Can you see when each vote came in? Like to compare general forum vs. speculation?

near all time highs.

NEW ALL TIME HIGH    76.4%:23.6%

yet another new high.

76.9:23.1

what's the sample size? Is that just from 1 click?

77.1:22.9

77.2:22.8

oops

77.4:22.6

The current percentages indicate a multiple of 40 clicks.

73.8% bullish
There does seem to be a new enthusiasm for bitcoin recently.

ALL TIME HIGH:  78.2:21.8

Won't stop climbing just like the price :)

New all time high here: above 80% bullishness

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html (http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html)

When everyone thinks alike, there isn't much thinking going on..

Look out for the contrarian investors :)

Another bullish sign: difficulty is forecast to go up, and likely mining rigs that were turned off are going back online.  This could just be the change in season in the US with the first cold weather snap of the year, so bitcoin mining is just serving double duty by helping to warm houses, too.

Just recently hashing growth rate went to 2%, the first time in months!

I've seen this graph at http://bitcoin.sipa.be , but it only covers a couple of months:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth-10k.png

Are there historical hash rate graphs somewhere?

my Sentiment Indicator just cleared 80 as well:  80.1:19.9

Its just about winter here in Canada too. I know I am enjoying the extra heat from my computer. I even have the CPU mining since its always so cold in here, I dont pay for my electricity and my landlord decided to jack my rent unfairly. Considering this winter is supposed to be colder than normal I cant say I have any plans to stop mining regardless of the price lol. And I dont even have to go out and buy an electric heater!

All Time High

Wait?  What?

'All Time High' sounds like a shot way too far... there are surely enough people burned by past highs to do some pretty heavy selling into any irrational exhuberance..   but I wouldn't be surprised to see it sneak past $4 this week before settling a bit.

please check out my blog.  i've got a reward posted up.

post 100000?? you mean view 100000.

duh, you're correct.

another new high

In the view count? Really? :P

no, sentiment indicator

new high at 81.3

ok.. this sentiment indicator means zip to me currently. How does it work? where is it explained?

i think i've designed it similar to the CBOE Put:Call ratio of index options which is a very simple, but very popular sentiment indicator for the stock market.

its simply the number of bulls to bears.  i should calculate the ratio to be more exact but the poll powered by Vizu doesn't have that capability.  their algorithm also controls how often you can vote which by my observations seems to be around twice a day or so.

new high 81.4

another new high?  81.5.

Oh.. So it is some sort of survey.
I saw some graphic box on the right of your site indicating the percentages - but I didn't see how to contribute to the poll.
On further investigation I see you have to click 'comment'.   How utterly un-intuitive.

I guess your poll is highly skewed to those who are really *keen* to dig around to participate. 

hits 82 for first time.

That wouldn't matter if you compare it to previous results of the poll: It's still higher than ever.

82.4

82.7

Voted, 82.9 now

So like uhm, this isn't a contrarian indicator... yet?  right?

83

so quiet around here.  looks like everyone went to the bank to get their USD's over to mtgox.

Right, not yet.  S3025 explained that when sentiment matches the trend, you get third wave behavior.  He's talking about a wave down in his example, but its equally true for waves up.

Stellar!

Looks like the rise is starting to accelerate; we'll probably gap up.  Too much faster and we'll go parabolic (even on a log scale).

Its at the end of a trend when the sentiment is a contrarian indicator.  That's when you get the fifth and final wave before the reversal.

just remember things don't look so imposing when you look at it this way.
we got WAY oversold due to shorting:

https://i.imgur.com/UQnYV.png

Now Nagle's going like, "oh wait, that's not how a bubble is supposed to chart!"  ;D

One other thing: the weekly dollar volume.  The current week has already surpassed recent ones by going over $2m.  But it just started on Jan 2.  By the time the week is over, the dollar volume could be in the top three for the year.

looks like everyone's back from the bank!!!!!

i think it looks a bit more imposing when you look at at this way...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=Daily&c=1&s=2011-01-11&e=2012-01-06&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=30&a2=SMA&m2=144&x=0&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=1&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

we should have tested 1 on the way down imho, but all the serious volume didn't start until the first bubble was up around $5-$10, that means there is an awful lot of people who think that $2 is a bargain.

So maybe ~$2 is resistance now. It's getting pretty hard to stick to my conviction that we are going down again before we go back up, I'm dying to jump on board this train!!!

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

If you're right, well... meh.  It will go up again.

its the former. i lived thru the Spring minute by minute and this is exactly the same, except this time we go further.

I don't see any reason why we're going to go further.  I could see the price getting to $10, but I expect more profit taking this time.  What makes you think we're going further?

read my blog.  the amount of fiat money circulating round the world is enormous.  and we're about to pump it up even more.  Bitcoin is such a tiny mkt now but yet a revolutionary idea that fits well with the internet age.

the gold and silver mkt is done, the euro is in trouble, the Fed is about to embark on QE3 so ppl are looking for a store of value.  Bitcoin is IT.

Missing an opportunity of a lifetime... I don't know if I could just go meh and forget about it.  ;)

I'm sure a lot of people are already going "meh" about not buying at $5 when they had the chance earlier today. Forget last Oct-Dec..

So everyone keeps saying... *everyone* - that seems a bit too bullish for me.

My long term holdings remain intact (lucky enough to acquire those at ~$1) Not quite as many as I'd like, I was aiming to add to them but I ended up with all US Dollars with the whole move from bitcoinica, once I'd got it all back on gox things were starting to look a bit price at $5 so i just set my bids and wait. Shame none of them got filled :D

I can't really buy now, If I miss out on profits in a rally from 6-10 I've missed out on a 66% opportunity. A bit disappointing.

If I can pick up some coin around $2-$3 and then take it to $10, that would be far more exciting! This is just my play money we are talking about here after all :)

I'm also concerned about topping at $10, but not overly concerned for a couple of reasons.  First is that the vast majority of the "profit taking" will be USD that stays in play; sellers will use it to accumulate more bitcoins on a dip.  Secondly, I think the market is much healthier now (compared to April-June 2011), because there is much more automated market making.  I'm not sure to what extent there was any back then.  The market makers now are smarter, more experienced, and very well funded.

Additionally, this time the market already has a history with a range of an all-time-high of $32 and had the time to find its bottom at $2.  Those were two completely unknowns before.  If the long-term trend is up, then the new bottom will be higher than $2, take $5 or $10 as low estimates.  If this wave doesn't bring a new all-time-high, then I would expect the market to trade in the $5/$10-$32 range for a while before it makes a longer-term decision.

Another factual difference is that the April-June 2011 rally started from a new all-time-high of $1.10.  This rally is simply reversing a downtrend that started at $32, so in all likelihood it should pass $10 even easier than before.  And I would expect it to make new highs sooner or later, if the long-term trend is up.

Expect a lot of threads about whining about the EARLY ADOPTERS "omgomg they bought btc at 2$, it's unfair, now it's 10$!!!!"