Bitcoin Forum

we just spiked.
2.46

just sain.

Indeed, seems like there is some kind of a rally going on. Not surprising to me, the pressure has been building up for days.

Nothing is every surprising after it happens

Haha, nice rally guys.  Almost back to pre-rally prices.

Let me guess you have a short position which is too low for current circumstances?

That wasn't a rally. that was a spike. It went down to the baseline of the rise since 2.2, as expected. I doubt as well this will turn out to be a rally (by my definition that would go back over 3)
But there could be some upside before the drop.

I am mostly bearish as well but even I see it is not the best time to short...

Things could get interesting quite quickly atm  ;)

Only in one direction, I think.  I doubt we'll ever see prices above $3 again.

350k usd in bid? What the hell is that?

The coming 2 hours gonna be interesting, an even if it means nothing really bulls and bears are fighting over todays volume like mad.
The bulls can't let the bears win because 2 red days would be interpreted buy the masses as a failed rally and bears because they can't reach 2 or below anytime soon if they don't establish a downtrend.

Interesting how such a arbitrary point in time can mean so much to people  :o

What makes you so sure that it has to happen within two hours? (Just curious)

Just the silly fact that bitcoincharts uses GMT 00:00 to get to a new day "open, close" prices. The last days especially the dojis all had a small fight right before it which the bulls have won. Which is why we had a full week "up", but prices didn't go above the high of the gravestone doji at the beginning at the rally.
We now have unusual high volume for the time. So I expect a bigger fight.

I'm not talking about new highs or lows just higher or lower than yesterday on 23:59:59 GMT..

Funny how the charting UIs can be a significant factor in bitcoin valuation.  It used to be that $2.38 was the magic spot where the $2.00 bidwall would disappear off of the MtGoxlive chart, and the price tended to hover around $2.35-$2.40.  Now there's been a change on MtGoxLive, and $2.00 bidwall is visible up until $2.50, and now the price is hovering around $2.50. 

Breaking the $3 resistance will be very important and tough but I think we might see a reversal after this. Also if we break above 8-10 I'll reconsider Bitcoin as a currency. It will be more and more a commodity/investment. No major business will accept it as money if today it's 102 and tomorrow 106. Only if they cash out everything every evening.

Sounds like businesses would cease to accept Euro some time soon? ;D

USD/EUR exchange rate: 1.41 on 31th of October to 1.36 on 1st of November. That's about 3.68%, your example is 3.92%.

I think there are two wrong assumptions around. One, that a large Bitcoin would be unstable. Why should it be? The larger it gets, the better the speculators are who stabilize it. Two, that people are hellishly afraid of price fluctuations. These swings can go both ways, so unless a business puts all eggs into one basket, this is not a problem on the long run.

Once matured, Bitcoin has the advantage in terms of stability, at least when compared with EUR, USD and gold. CHF might be a worthy opponent, but just wait until any strange politics hit Switzerland, possibly by a jealous EU.

CHF has been pegged to EUR for a few months now. Basically it is the same thing, just different image on the paper now.

Fixed that for you.

And, that be profit takin'!  :o

I need it to correct just a little bit more and I can take my profits.  Nice little bubble to trade on.  Thank you again manipulator!

2.7 Is the buy point. 2.85 is the sell point. Expect things to level out for a few days, then rise up again to about 2.9 maybe then back to the long slow downward march. I figure it will settle in around 2.7 by mid Dec. I have no idea what kind of effect Christmas will have on things though.

Maybe you should take more pills to tell us further about the future.

Heck take the whole bottle and tell us whats happening in 2013

Bitcoin probably will have completely run its course by 2013.  There's absolutely no reason to believe this is a reversal.  We've seen this all before.  I fully expect the long slow slide down to continue in the next week or so.  I stand by my claim from not too long ago that the price will not go back above $3.

what if you are wrong?

Even if bitcoins would continue the mid term downtrend, a small 38.2% fibonacchi retracement will lead to a minimum bounce target of 13$.

we will see bear ribs as barbecue

Sorry but you got no magic. I'm asking DaMAN to tell us about the future.

Then I'm wrong.  But from the looks of things odds are against a reversal.

I would really like to believe Bitcoinica is to blame for massive price swings.  I know they did margin calls and brought it to under $2 for a millisecond.  However, have they admitted to putting up the gigantic 50,000 BTC walls?  I think Bitcoinica just executes large trades instantaneously. The "manipulator" I speak of uses a bot also, but that bot puts up huge walls that can, and have, been blown through and caused huge swings.  In the end we have two major players here, Mr. Manip and Bitcoinica.

Here's my prediction.  The price will bounce around between ~2.65 and 2.80 for a while, maybe a week or two, and during that time everyone who bought below 2.60 will get increasingly more nervous.  Eventually somebody with a significant stash of bitcoins will bail out and spark a heavy round of selling which will take the bid wall out which will spur a huge panic sell-off which will finally take us below 2.00.  This drama will play out several times over the next year or so as you guys trade bitcoin into oblivion.  Eventually, the convenience of Google's payment system, or whatever other big company's scheme, will completely drown out any interest in bitcoin and the project will be forgotten by most people and won't even manage to be remembered as a footnote in history.

Some people don't care what the price of 1 BTC is, they just care that it fluctuates.  I don't care how much BTC I have, I just care that I'm making 5-10% profits off each trade.  Like in Forex, I don't care how much 1 GBP or EUR is worth, I just care that I can pull 20+ pips or whatever out of a trade.

Thats for your prediction, now clean up your own mess

Expect it to settle in to a stable price for the short term. For now buy anything you can below 2.7 and when things go up, sell anything you can above 2.9, or 2.85 if you want to be conservative. 3 dollars might be a possibility but I wouldn't count on it. Expect the rise back up anywhere from 2 days to 10 days from now. After that things will be stable until Christmas. I can't see any further into the future than that.

Thats awsome
 ;D

Hi Proudhon, I've seen the question asked before, but I don't recall your reply. Why do you hang out on these threads? Are you short and hoping to reinforce your predictions? Do I understand correctly that you believe bitcoin will completely die in the near future? Are you trying to save those who will listen (though someone always has to hold the bag)? Are you looking forward to some big "I told you so" party? I'm sincerely curious what motivates you.

He thinks it's like watching a train wreck.

At this point its a bit like a train wreck for me.  I just can't seem to look away.



No.



Yes.


Maybe a little, but I don't think about that too often.


Yes.

But who would be around to celebrate with you?

His alts.  Called sock puppets on this forum for some reason.

My guess is that a lot of these folks want to buy in at a good price or buy some mining gear on the cheap.  I cannot resist throwing out seeds of doubt in such hopes although I really do have some concerns about Bitcoin's viability in the sub $2.00 range so I tend to resist that temptation these days.

Other people probably got stuck sitting on a zillion scam-coins and hope somehow that their plight will improve if Bitcoin fails.  Or they hope that they could ride some of those trains if the pesky old grand-daddy were out of the picture.

Other people probably do have legitimate technical, fundamental, or political reasons for believing that Bitcoin should be bearish (or die).

It sort of does not pass the smell test that people would spend vast amounts of time and energy trying to manipulate opinion for no reason at all even if unemployment is fairly high these days.

Interesting watching someone sell ~50 @ 2.80 over and over again into the bid wall.

Wonder if it'll hold.

Guess it'll hold for another 30 sells ::)

Bitcoinica is hedging itself on mtgox trading 50BTC "blocks". Of course it can be any other bot or trader, but I see bitcoinica as the most likely source.

Some of that must have been me. I took out about 250 BTC short against 2.8

http://animalnewyork.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/blast-off.jpg

WE ARE HEADED FOR SOME NEW HIGHS FOLKS! GET READY FOR THE RIDE IT'S GOING TO BE NUTS!!!

Yes, i think that also!

Someone better get buying then. There is still 17,000BTC between here ($2.9) and $3

17k BTC isn't that much. And once we clear the 3$ mark this market is going to enter a free-fall... In a world with reversed gravity that is.  ;)

That sounds like some of my dreams ::)

Anyone else notice Dwolla's tweet about tomorrow being their anniversary? Think it's a coincidence that Mt. Gox is planning some big announcement tomorrow, as well?

In relative terms, no it's not a lot. But, I couldn't buy 17,000BTC, so to me (and most here I'm sure), that's a lot.
But, I do agree. If we get past $3, it will take flight.

No it won't.  You're all getting played right now.  The long, slow slide is going to resume sooner or later.  Bitcoin will never, ever reach $32 again, ever.  Period.  The odds of it ever reaching $5 are so low it's not even worth considering the possibility.  This is just the usual blip upward before this market resumes its march to oblivion.  I'm sorry to see so many people so easily fooled, again.

Just like we were heading to sub $1 BTC last week? I would take what you say with a grain of salt.

Funny thing is, it actually went from 2.2 to ~2.7 without the (possibly fake) bidwall at 2.6. This in itself is a nice increase, which does not necessarily seem manipulated.

Dwolla screwed Tradehill big-time and has yet to provide any explanation (from what I can glean from Kenna's comment.)  Most exchanges were obliged to drop them, but not Mt. Gox.

A _very_ healthy percentage of Dwolla's business was/is related to Bitcoin, and Mt. Gox has a huge share of the Bitcoin exchange business.

People who don't seem like they are the types who should be having such issues seem to be having one hell of a time getting money from Mt. Gox via Paxum.

Hmmm...would not surprise me if you are on to something edd.

TROLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

I wasn't implying it'll go to $32, just that IF we go beyond $3 there isn't much resistance left to stop the rally 'til $3.20. And that wall is smaller than the $3 wall. We'll soon find out.

saving this for later...

3.0 has been hit

moment of truth...

We're going over! I can feel it!

And melted down

In full at 5:1

I was mortified when Bitcoin fell below $3.00.  Now I cannot help but feel somewhat elated when it touches $3.00 from the low side?!?  Pathetic really.

I'm keeping my feet on the ground and have even more powder dry than ever for sub-$2.00 if we get there.  If not, I'll probably use the USD funds to do actual real-time purchases if someone someday offers something I want in Bitcoin, and does so in such a way that I can be assured that I won't get screwed (either via overpricing or failure to deliver.)

Alternately, my exchange will use the USD funds for hookers and blow or whatever they are into.  I hope not, but I never let anyone hold more or my USD than I can afford to lose.

Up to 3.089 right now, and climbing. Looked like a lot of Bitcoinica buys going through maybe?

Now that we have passed $3 I think we are going to shoot up fast for a quick rally and maybe settle around 3.15 for the next few days before slowly climbing again.

Definitely.  When BTCUSD passes askwalls the results are extreme.

3.05 RALLY! HOLY SHIT

http://bitcoincloset.com/img/p/20-112-thickbox.jpg

GET YOUR SHIRTS YOU GUYS THIS DECEMBER RALLY'S GOING TO BE EPIC!

http://bitcoincloset.com/product.php?id_product=20

Full speed ahead and dam the torpedos !!!

Whether it goes up, down, or stays put, thanks for the spread!

:D

Inverting the crash t-shirt is clever!  lol  ;)

How does that work? You just put up bids and asks around the spread, and then people take them?

Does that make a lot of profit?

Here it comes! That wall of sales.

Weeeeeeeee!
*raises hands in the air during the freefall*

I love rollercoasters.

Over 4-5 cent spreads? Not really, not at this volume.  It's growing my little nest-egg bit by bit though.

If someone wants to bump us up over $3.10 though I might have a different response to that question :P

What do you think the odds are now?

That remind me the movie "The chronicles of Riddick"

Now what would be the odds of that?

Better.  ;)

2012 YEAR OF THE MAYANS-PROUDHONS IN FOLKS!!! PROUDHONS IN LOL!!!

LOL!

It came so close, too - half of a 300 btc sell I had placed was filled:

Ask(s) (Sell)
   
   Order Filled at: Sat 31 Dec 2011 01:11:10 PM GMT
   Amount: 155.29128318 BTC
   Price: @$4.99500
   Total: $775.67996

A year ago, btc was trading at $0.292, with a total valuation of $1.4M.  Now, seemingly every week, a buy for $50k-$250k USD worth of coins happens.  Pretty nifty.

You are assuming all new minted coins end up being available for sale. I think this is very, very far from the truth. My guess is at least 90% of all coins is not for sale, and just being hoarded regardless of exchange rates. That means the influx of money is vastly smaller, at least proportionally to this hoarding rate. Some small indication to back up my gut feeling here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=56128.0

My coins are not for sale, not if the price goes to $100 tomorrow, not if it drops to $0.1. And yet In a few years time I might decide to get out and sell at either of those prices.  I think this is not an exception but rather the rule, so you could say the current BTC price is all but meaningless;  its just a reflection of the sentiment traders have about the sentiment of other traders. And those are trading a tiny fraction of the all BTCs. No wonder its so volatile.

he sees the light! :) :) :)

[insert formula 1 pic]

Famous last words with hindsight. ;D