Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin (BTC) has had four market cycles since its inception in 2009, from a bottom to a new peak. The cycles ranged from over 600 days to around 1,050 days. The most recent cycle has just surpassed 300 days, which suggests it could last 3-12 more months.

If Bitcoin’s price remains stable for several months to potentially a year, it could achieve two things. First, it could strengthen the fundamental ground of the next explosive rally as seen between 2016 and 2017. Second, it could cause other cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, to reach new heights, as some investors predict.

Why a slow grind upwards for Bitcoin is crucial in this phase
The price of Bitcoin was at a mere $3,596 on BitMEX on March 13. Within six months, BTC has recorded a 220% upsurge, outperforming most traditional assets and indices including gold.

The steep vertical rally of Bitcoin could raise the chances of whales — or large individual Bitcoin holders — to take profit. When that happens, the overleveraged nature of the futures market may result in a deep pullback due to cascading liquidations.

But if BTC gradually recovers over time and remains above the $10,000 support level, it could lead to a more sustainable and long-lasting bull cycle. 10% Holdings co-founder Dan Tepiero said:

“Prepare to be patient in Bitcoin. Each up cycle takes longer to play out and is less extreme as absolute dollar value gets much larger. May or may not be another 6-12 months before price breaks up. Should not matter as end price point obscenely higher. Hodlers rejoice.”

As an example, the past two cycles occurred around the Bitcoin block reward halving. The second halving in Bitcoin’s history happened in July 2016. The bull cycle of BTC reached its peak 17 months later in December 2017.

If Bitcoin follows a similar trend as the post-2016 halving cycle, it could see a strong uptrend in late 2021. This would also line up perfectly with the popular stock-to-flow model that suggests BTC price may reach six figures sometime next year.

What do traders see in the near term?
In the short term, some traders foresee the price of Bitcoin consolidating for an extended period. A pseudonymous trader known as “BIg Chronis” said higher time frame charts suggest a longer sideways price action.

“Holding the daily bull cross is ideal for the bulls, sideways price action can bring these into parallel without crossing, while allowing higher time frame indicators to ebb their decline... ie- I expect relative sideways ranging for a while longer.”

Michael van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, similarly said the cycle will likely last longer than the previous one. He said:

“The fun part is that this cycle will, probably, take longer than the previous one. However, it will be more insane than the previous one. I like it.”

Typically, a prolonged period of stability for Bitcoin has led the altcoin market to perform strongly. Kelvin Koh, a partner at Asia-based cryptocurrency fund Spartan Black, hinted it could buoy the sentiment around the altcoin market.

Full article is here, just go through the link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/history-shows-bitcoin-price-may-take-3-12-months-to-finally-break-20k/amp

The key word here is the modal verb 'may'. It may, but it also may not. Bitcoin is not big on following patterns because its price is deeply affected by opinions of investors, which are influenced by news. If the news are bullish, people will buy due to FOMO. If it's bearish, many will sell due to FUD. I think that's the closest to a rule of crypto price movement there is. So my point is, since 2020 is nothing like 2017, there's no reason to believe that the pace at which Bitcoin was moving back then would be applicable given the current situation. Bitcoin is doing remarkably well, but frankly, I'd prefer it so stabilize at the current price rather than make a run for $20k only to crash soon after it.

No one knows will btc break 20k again in this run or not. We already stucked between 11-12k range and this getting dangerous for furhter growth

yes, the current market situation is different from previous years but the given timeframe to achieve the $20k price level is very plausible. and yes, it may or may not achieve that price within that period. there are so many factors that are in play to achieve that price level again, times has changed and so is the crypto market. as a btc user, one should be prepared for what may happen in the next coming months or years. and also, this means that a lot of people believe that btc is heading in the positive direction and that is already a good sign that they do have faith in btc.

I dont think bitcoin can reach 20k in the current future it will remain stuck in the 11/10k range

The growth that has taken place during the previous years can be taken as a reference point of growth, and with that we can't predict the price growth of bitcoin. Earlier 2020 was marked to be a big year for bitcoin, but things weren't the same as expected, and things didn't go as worse. Based on this there'll be good growth in price, but the chance of breaking the $20k barrier is quite low in my view. Maybe if some positive news happens relative to cryptocurrency and a top firm then we can expect big price move.

It can't be stuck in that amount. It is either it falls back below 10k or move up. Actually the recovery of the bitcoin has been great and for the past couple of weeks the recovery is incredible. I have no doubt about what the op said. We might see another bitcoin rally very soon. I don't know maybe it will reach 20k but it is very likely the next rally might take the price to something very close to that. We will keep on monitoring closely

What you provide is a comprehensive cherry-picking market prediction while plugging in 'quotes' that support the overall statements.
Personally, though I don't know how much weight one should add to these predictions but for me one fact is clear and that is that after prolonged stabilisation a new bull cycle often follows.

So, there might be some truth to these opinions but I always think that is best to persevere in any market conditions. That way you're not betting your odds on 'what if' but taking the ups/downs of the market as it comes. This is at least my approach to crypto trading, and I must stress that this is not something I recommend everyone do as not everybody can live with this. Just practice whatever works for you.

It is still pretty reflective of previous halvings, I don't doubt we'll see a new ATH soon, just don't go all in in the highest peak as we'll probably drop down to $18k or even $10k afterwards.

It is possible to reach $20k once again. When it dropped to $3k, too many negative thoughts came out as if bitcoin will never reach $10k again but it just did last year and the price is on that resistance. It looks being stuck on the $10k-$11k range but it's much better to be seen on those prices rather than to check it everyday with the lower prices. There's really a chance that it could up within a year to $20k while we're discussing it but, as usual, it could also be that low as it's volatile.

I've seen this projection a year ago where they were showing a 2021 20k break and 2022 new bull market top. Just remember that this projection is based on a price action following the previous 2 halvings. The second bull market took longer than the first one and the following bear market was also longer, so they're expecting the same thing to happen this time. It's like believing that if your first car broke down after 5 years and the second after 7 your third car is going to keep running for 9 years straight.

Bitcoin is very volatile so I also don't believe that bitcoin will stuck on the level of $10k - $11k because the price will move no matter what. Well, the OP says its possible to happen in the next 12 months so I believe it will happen since 2021 will be the year of recovery for everyone that let them buy more bitcoin. We should keep on monitoring bitcoin, don't just hold better to set strategies on selling and buying.

For any analyst to predict a time frame like "3-12 months" is someone who doesn't really know what will happen to that asset. This kind of long time frame just shows how they are unsure of their own analysis and they are correct to do so as predicting Bitcoin's price by just looking at it's historical prices will just make their price prediction more inaccurate. People always compare the previous price movement of Bitcoin on it's present price movement hoping to see a pattern that was not really there in the first place. For me honestly I don't think Bitcoin can go up back up above 20,000$ this early especially if we are having a hard time to even break back up above 12,000$ just because the volume isn't really that strong to push above that level.

Unfortunately, the price still does not exceed the 12K mark. So it's hard to say what will happen tomorrow. Bitcoin is really an unpredictable thing

At least you already seen that price is above $10/11. This is to show that the price of bitcoin is unstoppable. Whatever controls the price is still what many don't understand.

I think bitcoin will soon reach $ 20k by 2021. Bitcoin needs a process of accumulating value to grow. As the world economy recovers, the government will print more money to boost the economy, and bitcoin will be bought by more institutions and individuals. When looking at bitcoin's chart, I am very confident as most months the price of bitcoin is in the upper band of the Bollinger Bands.

Incase you missed it, It did touched $12k twice. Then the expected pull back usually happens.
And yes Bitcoin is very unpredictable that's why we're making fundamental news and predictions right here to draw closer to the next price movement.

If Btc stabilizes at this current range, there is indeed a huge chance to make a 2017ish rally and It'll (Btc) reach new heights. The $10,000 strong support level has no indication that Btc will go near that level for now. Let's see how Btc will close out this month and how well it would open for the next 1st week of September.

Bitcoin's price is volatile, so it is always unpredictable in the market.

I have my own pattern, but i'm not sure about this and i'm observing it. Maybe in 2021, it surpass an another ATH again because as you can see in 2016 halving and the ATH occurs in the end of 2017. Probably it can happen again at the end of 2021 which is not that impossible to happen.

We have different predictions, right now we are experiencing sudden increase in its price but that's not that good enough to say that btc will reach another ATH this year.

It did exceed its just that the support breaks easily. Going to 20k usd is a tough movement and lots of funds needs to roll out this. If pattern based we can see it on few months but who knows it could take a year or two. Altcoins are suppresing bitcoin investors as the market is being shifted more to defi projects which we can feel the result. More projects are keeping released so some leaving bitcoin investment.

Of course it will not remain stuck, otherwise, it will not move.  :-\

To OP, history of bitcoin is the best basis to predict its future, however, bitcoin is very unpredictable so whatever basis you give, it still doesn't give an accurate way to predict the future. I believe that it's best to just believe that bitcoin will eventually skyrocket again, just like what we have seen in the last bull run, and if my memory still serves me right, I think most of us didn't expect it, the bull run lasted for awhile but bitcoin has achieved its ATH in less than 3 months. 

3-12 months? We are already in a bull run, we are just waiting for the right timing to really get the price to another all time high. But if we are going to look at the four year cycle, 2021 is the real target or at least majority is predicting that we might not just get to $20k, but more than that, $40k-$50k is what the conservative estimates where. So let's see if the cycle will continue, at least though, at $11k today, we are just off by just a couple of thousands of dollars unlike most altcoins which is still down like 80% from their previous all time highs.

     Quite a good content you have there. To be honest, I really would love to believe such claims for it is highly convenient not just for me but for most of the people in this industry. However, as what we have seen all throughout the years, I believe that a lot would agree with me saying that bitcoins are not that easy to predict. And the reason as to why this is the case is because obviously, bitcoin n does not follow a specific order or pattern. Thus, using a pattern from the past to predict a bull run is not that good of strategy. Just saying.

I see this is also some mere speculation again with some information that might get real in the next months or not. anyway, we are now taking some good steps in the market where the price is stabilizing at the $11,000+ which will make it prosper in the next coming months if what OP said will gonna happen. There can be some upside down with the price in this coming months, but if it regains again up to this high, the market will soon to witness another All Time High.

I agree with you because if we compare to what we see at the beginning of this year, the bitcoin price can increase so high, and even we finally see the price can touch $12k. No one knows if bitcoin price can touch the new ATH after the price is at the lowest price for a long time, and that makes many people happy to sell their bitcoin. I am sure that many people can wait for more to see the price will touch the next new ATH, whether it will happen this year or next year. I am sure that the cycle will continue to increase, and while we are still at a correction, we better to prepare ourselves for the next rally.

We can say that they are expert? Well they are just making the study but things will not really going to happen based in their study. As the other user had said that the main verb been use was "may" may it happen or may not. I can sense somehow that there will be really another run for good market price increase but do not really know when it will going to happen. Just make reference on their study and see to it how you may be able to use them in your decision making.

Sometimes great achievement happen when you risk something. One may end up lossing or gaining profit depending on the decision making.

3-12 months to finally break $20k?  OK, Nostradamus.  I hope you just spent your entire life savings buying at $11500.

.... or is this just all based on USD inflation?  I guess if you aren't investing USD, you may want to pass then.

The supply of funny money is high and anyone under 30 doesn't seem to understand basic economics.

On second thought, I rather like your prediction. It is vry astute.

That said, I think I'll seek a dowry consisting of many cattle and goats for my daughter and spend my own available funds on guns and ammunition (maybe second hand on eBay for that ammo, damn).

I'd like to believe that the market has matured and we are in a very different scenario now compared to the past halving, I don't think we are going to need 12 months at the most to reach another all-time high, after ten years Bitcoin has proven it's worth that many institutions have seen it's potential compared in the past when investors are just observing how Bitcoin will evolve in the hardest time and it did surpass their expectation.

There is a big chance that this prediction will likely to become true especially that the bitcoin price is starting to move upward already and it will take only a little push to break the $20k price. If there will be no big setbacks to bitcoin price then breaking the $20K price within 3-12 months has a big potential that it will likely happen. It will be very interesting to witness that the bitcoin will able to reach again at $20k.

It  seems that he's not pretty sure on what is he trying to say with his prediction.

I set aside the history of bitcoin for my basis coz it does not tell me anything, I just conclude and conclude for what might be happening the next morning and I could not get what I wanted. Time has already changed, what you saw 2 years ago might not happen again, what we experience could of years ago might not happen again, I believe that this year and the later years will be different for the cryptocurrencies, just look outside the bitcoin.

I believe in the cycle in bitcoin as other technical analysis follow suit but I dont have any time in mind for some price movement. Since a lot of people expect the bullrun at the end of the year like in previous, it usually call me to caution cause such expectation might be very difficult to manage with profit taking. It either come earlier in 2020 or latter into 2021. I also think the cycle is getting shorter as the halving is and the bear takes more in the whole cycle

It could be possible but I was not expecting that what happens before (history) will be happening again. Because it was pretty obvious how the market behaves differently compared before and all these changes matters also how the global market behave and so the attitude of all bag holders.

Considering that there are a lot of factors that could affect the market flow, only a slim chance to happen. The question is when to start counting that 3-12months? I'm not sure it becomes measurable in a thing that we are in a volatile market and we probably know how often it changes unexpectedly.

That's a good question, normally investors starts counting when the market starts to be bullish and it seems according to my evaluation, the market is already bullish now as bitcoin reached a new high after two years, so this could be a good sign that it will stay bullish going forward, especially this year.

Bitcoin is struggling to break $12,000 and stay at that price for any length of time.  There'd need to be some new players (a pod of Whales?) come into the Cryptosphere and take a fair chunk of the available coins off of the market with a strategy to HODL them for three to five years.  If it were a sudden land grab, then that'd shock the market upwards, but if it was done softly-softly, then the market might not necessarily notice at first the availability drying up.

True, the price would go up (supply and demand) but not as much as a shock and awe plunder.

I'm sure no one will be able to ensure when the Bitcoin price reaches $ 20,000. So what we can do is keep trying to collect
Bitcoin from now on, so if one day Bitcoin reach the price of $ 20,000 we can get big profit. The most important thing right now
Bitcoin movement is already on the right track, and moving in a positive direction. With the stable price of Bitcoin at $ 11,000 is
a good sign, usually soon there will be a pump to the next resistance price.

That was just a prediction but still anything can be happen in the market. Just hoping the best not the bad but still the market can be crash if the whales keep on dumping bitcoin. Bitcoin only can be pump up if the whales keep on pumping the coin then we will see the bull trend is happening.

In this current situation of btc market, whales are not only the contributing factor in the market price movement.
As right now, there are various factors that play an important role in influencing the btc price.
Growing adoption is one, increasing number of merchants accepting btc, big companies integrating blockchain tech in their ecosystem and others.

If we will base on the past history of Bitcoin after its 2 halvings, it took at least a year before it goes up.

I agree with this that Bitcoin "MAY" or "MAY NOT" do what Bitcoin did after its past 2 halvings. Investors are now matured compare to that many years ago. People are more knowledgeable right now and the total marketcap of the crypto is way higher than it is many years ago.

Many factors are affected with this but if we will see the investors invest more money in the succeeding months then we might see a "history repeat itself" scenario. Bitcoin will not stabilize for me. Like you said Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by news and the sentiments of the investors so if there is a big news then probably it will go up immediately and vice versa. Bitcoin reaching the $20,000 price will be a significant one for us but it will be long and bumpy road before it will happen where we will see many ups and downs and it will not be a huge parabolic rise like what happened 3 years ago. :)

It's all a paradox but it's within our grasp to do whatever needs to be done whether you should go long or go short on the price of Bitcoin. I think the biggest struggle that people experience is that they don't fully understand the risk when trading. They could be profitable this month but not on the other. Trades are probable but it's not guaranteed to happen. I do hope for Bitcoin to have another ATH.

Nope that is much long before we can take that position again,Once the Virus vaccine of Corona finally comes to real and the testing this
 september succed then nothing will hinder the growth of the economy again so the effect will surely take
 in crypto market.

Your report seems to be for assurance at least you won't fail since 14 months is too far and many big things may come along the way .

it is u to us and all the investors what is the future of Bitcoin and i support you for that mate.

How can't this market grow if we will do all our part?demand and supply surely Bitcoin will Go mooning again because the health of the market is the basis
of investors when to enter putting money again.

I am agree with your opinion to keep collect bitcoin from now before it is too late, this year candle is almost look like 2017 candle pattern were bitcoin will pump significantly soon, but if it not pumpin' like 2017, it is never wrong like you said above to keep collecting bitcoins as usual, because I believe bitcoin will rise and lead.

Well it may or may not really break $20K but there is always hope for everything.
For me it doesn't really matter if it breaks $20K or not the important thing for me is that it wouldn't go below $8K again.
I would be happy as long as it would stay above the price and have a slow steady growth.

The history also told us not to believed 100% at the history of bitcoin as the price is very volatile and can be easy to changed overnight. So there was no guarantee at all the history can be repeated but it also doesnt be impossible to be repeated. Its just to risky to trust blinded over the history. 

If you look at the current stable price of Bitcoin, I doubt that in 3-12 months it will reach a price of $ 20,000.
But more realistically, I think Bitcoin will hit a price of $ 15,000. Actually it doesn't matter how much Bitcoin
wants to rise, the most important thing is we must have large amounts of Bitcoin. Because it would be a waste,
if it turned out that Bitcoin was finally pumped, but we don't have a large amount of Bitcoin. so the best step
right now is to collect as much Bitcoin as possible, according to the abilities of each person.

$ 20k in one year just might happen. many predict 2021 will be a good year for Bitcoin.
But getting to $ 20k will certainly be a lot of hurdles in hadaoi. It will not be possible for Bitcoin to rise so easily, there will definitely be a price correction made. It can even go back to the $ 3k price it was before. It's all because of the very high votalotas of bitcoin, as well as a lot of speculation made by whales for their own interests and profits.
We'll see how much bitcoin will go, we can only monitor and occasionally join in the market euphoria.

That was short, it seems too possible seeing the market will recover that fast during this time and not even before.
We have reached $20k last 2017, we are now in 2020 (3 years pass already) but the situation is showing not enough to make that reached again.

The same with the others, you can't expect that the market will show the same as before. They are just history and a fewer chance that it happens again (and probably not)as every day will have changes that influence the market trend. Volatility makes it change and we not in control of the situation, therefore, we stop assuming that it happens again.

I think this is a safe prediction, I mean if we didn't hit all time high for this year, then obviously, the next 12 months (2021) will be the target wherein we might be able to reach all-time-high and it will still align with the 4 year cycle which most bitcoin enthusiasts see on how the bitcoin market works, boom and bust, cyclical nature.

It's just a question on what numbers are we going to see next, others are saying as far as breaking six digits based on the S2F model.

Your analysis could be right we are four after the halving and yet the price is in $11800 k level this is a good price compared to the first three months after the halving, we are doing great I'm satisfied on the movement as long as their is no huge price drop if your analysis turns out to be true then the first quarter of the year is the year when we will break the $20k level, I hope it will be earlier.

Bitcoin will stay at 11.5k or even more, but what I'm worried about is that when the price starts to get higher, the transaction fees are getting bigger, how about small traders, of course this will be very difficult especially with the Ethereum blockchain which can reach $ 5 more per transaction, maybe also because traffic on the network so the cost is more expensive.

It looks like this trend will take longer to see developments in the market continue to pick up and bitcoin for me is unlikely right now will fall to 8k, but it is likely that it will happen again in the future.

Bottomline is no history could tell when will the market be again at its peak because this market is naturally volatile. Many people in this industry are expecting for a comeback this year. Due to the sudden increase lately, many investors are expecting for a huge increase at the present. But as I have mentioned, no one really knows when will the market price increase and how high will it be every year. We have no choice but to hold and patiently wait rather to sell just because the market price stabilized at a certain point and that there is a tendency for a sudden downfall.

Sounds alot like my view, we are cycling here and once again back to lows we saw not long ago.   The overall context is its the lows of an upper range so remains bullish but we approach the 50 day average and must confirm support I think first before we can rise properly.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AhpAJ.png

Blue line is 50 day average, I'm not negative but I dont believe in fairy tales either.  We have more work to do before larger numbers, I think thats the sensible view and it can take the rest of this year for sure.

I don't see any danger that we will go down further the $11 k level we are ok even if we are moving slowly all I know is the market is doing good during this hard times and I have high hopes that next year Bitcoin will be doing great, even more, the year 2020 is a preparation for the best that is going to happen this year.

It seems that every time approaching the turn of the year there will be predictions that the movement of bitcoin will increase significantly at the end of the year or throughout the next year.
everything is just repeated predictions which are not necessarily correct, what we have to realize is that bitcoin can suddenly turn things around in drastic ways and letting bitcoin move as it is is a wise choice and most importantly we can buy it when the price is low and resell it when the price is ride.

And bitcoin did really prove it out that history cant really be repeated on the way where majority is been expecting or anticipating.I cant really blame out people to have those kind of
impressions because bull run did happen in the last months of that 2017 year which means you would really have the assumption that it might happen on the next year but what happen on year
2018-2019? The price did still able to remain low its ATH and didnt really make any significant movement but this year it do somehow shows some interesting stuff but doesnt mean
that we would be heading there on the end of this year.

is there any big bull runs before the 2017 ath bull run happen ? because  people wont expect by that time if there isnt any  but now that big bull run did happen on the year 2017 , people are now expecting for it to repeat .

  no big bull runs happened so far but there are smaller bull runs that occur by this year , ill still consider that as history repeats itself .

Why afraid of Dropping to $8000 level again?when you seems to be a Holder?It is better to fell again because we cannot break the $13,000 barrier then lets add some more right?
this is How i see market if you cannot profit then add more if we talk about Bitcoin as i have tried this for couple of times before.

As a contrarian trader and investor, that's what bothers me. It seems to be a very popular opinion. From a technical point of view I also see 2020 as a parallel for 2016, which puts the parabolic bubble next year, not this year. But the fact that so many people are thinking the same thing and citing the 4-year cycle gives me pause.

Maybe BTC front runs the cycle this time....

Let's not rely on history all that much, sure that is telling us something but it is not telling us the whole story, I would rather wait for it to happen than I would assume history will repeat itself.

Sure there is a possibility that bitcoin could go very high because let's face it the miners are not going to make this much money from the transaction fee's for too long, last time they requested this much and they didn't give up, people literally found a way to cheapen it and making it faster, a lot of miners have given up on mining because they are not making enough and rest of them are cutting back on power because let's face it they are already making money and if they use more machines they would make about the same from rewards yet miss out on fee's.

So, I am sure one day fee's will get lower again somehow (maybe LN) and at that point miners will focus on making bitcoin more expensive.

Because of the recent drop of the market I'd like to believe now that it will take some time before the market break into the $20 k level, it's not going to be an easy climb for the next two months, and expect a dip or a drop from time to time, the market is either an opportunity or big loss whenever this is a drop, so follow the golden rule of only invest what you can afford to lose.

I do believe bitcoin could definitely go up and will go up and break over $20k but I do not think that we should be looking at historical movements to decide the future prices. We have talked about this here extensively, there are people who take a look at history and decide on the future and there are people who think that is wrong, I am one of the ones that think that is wrong.

Bitcoin is not something that you could actually take a look at the past, see something happened before and that is why you think same thing will happen again which will result with the same results in the end. Sometimes bitcoin has something, reacts one way and it happens a few months or years later and reacts another way, we can't just assume that it would result with the same thing again and again.

You cant blame people not to presume things that would happen in future by just looking at on what happened in the past.Some might care and some wouldnt really just tend to

look back.It varies into each individual thats why we do see lots of threads saying that price will break ATH or would go even higher or the price wont reach ATH anytime soon.

Point here is that no one on this market can really make that preceise prediction. Even on tomorrows price is already unpredictable.

Analysis like these are lots in the market about technicals and other sentiments. Its common that they will presume but how they do determine that the next cycle would be more longer?

Undoubtedly, it is very difficult to predict something in the near future, what exactly will happen in the cryptocurrency market, but nevertheless, many analysts believe that it is necessary to focus on the historical indicators of halving 2012 and 2016. After these events, after a period of 1 year, bitcoin showed the maximum value your course. Based on this, it should be assumed that halving 2020 affects Bitcoin in the same way as it did last time. Therefore, I also believe that in the summer of 2021, bitcoind can reach another historic high in price.
In addition, you need to take into account the market conditions that have developed today, including the economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. the depreciation of national currencies actively forces ordinary people and investors to invest in cryptocurrency, but most of all in Bitcoin.

Let’s see if this halving brings as much increase as people claim it will be. I feel like this price point is at a sensitive place where it could even go down, so I am not sure if it could actually go up like people claim it will. Not saying it won't, because who am I to say bitcoin will do this or that, but I can say that we could actually do decently and that is what I am trying to guess, what happens if we are not above 20k but we are not under 10k? Is that a loss?

I feel like that is still a win. Tell me if you wake up tomorrow and price of bitcoin is 15k and it stays at around 14-16k range for one year, would you feel bad? I would actually feel awesome about it, that is big enough and good enough, I am happy with every single up from here and staying there, do not need even higher and higher all the time.

Halving is over and obviously was already priced in the Bitcoins price. Next halving is in 2024. Question is when will 2024 halving get priced in Bitcoins price. It should in 2021 or maybe 2022.

It depends on your entry point if you bought Bitcoin at level $7 k to level $9 k you are still good and in profit, I'm positive on the outcome of the price of Bitcoin before the end of the year, compared in the last two years, this year is different because we are in a post halving period and I don't see history going to different direction and we will not see a new all time high.

Although we are in post halving still we need to be careful since the halving time from year 2017 is different compare today, we are facing a serious crisis brought by the corona virus so maybe those things or figures on our minds will not come but we can act on the current movement since the current market volatility is good earning option for us if we select to day trade for now.

^I do not think that 10k-20k levels without going too high, changes according to what you got in with, if bitcoin price stays above 10k and under 20k that is still a big win in my book because if we start to think about "where did you get in" that means there could be people who bought at 20k as well when we are at 20k, does that mean we are not high? If we one day become 40k but someone bought at 45k and dropped, does that mean we are not high? If we start to think about where people got in and not where we came from, that will always result with various amounts of answers.

We should not look at the price from where anyone bought, we should look at it from the past to today and bitcoin has been under 10k for a very very long period, then went above 10k and I am happy with it, as long as it stays above 10k that is fine.

I really can't believe that people really do not care about looking at the future and not the past and people think that is fine.

I mean sure if you want to look at the past please do it, learn from mistakes if you want to, however if you think one thing that happened in the past will happen again and again, you should buy bitcoin every November and sell it every December so that you can max profit, you don't do it do you? Bitcoin went from $3k in 2017 November to 20k December 2017, if same thing happens why don't you try to do that once again?

Nobody does it because we know past doesn't happen over and over again. Hopefully you will realize that this example can be applied to every single one, there is no way people could ever be actually repeating the same thing over and over.

These threads had been created in 2018 and do ask out or predict that we might reach out 20k but we havent able to achieve
on 3 years time which it normally shows that market cant really be predicted out neither if you do go ahead or even going back to past on making out
analysis.
Will Bitcoin ever be 20k again? Why or Why not? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5046104.0)
Will Bitcoin hit 20k again (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4720395.120)
Can Bitcoin Make it back to $20k ? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188341.40)
What will help bitcoin reach 20k again? (http://=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2730777.0)

On a very speculative market then expect for lots of speculative threads. lol

That's what crypto users wanted to read. How possible is that price level to achieve and when? They just want to get a lil bit of hope that we will reach the ATH again. It feels good to read those threads as you can read various speculations from everybody. So they are not tired of reading and creating similar threads.

I believe that it is not only twice mate because this whole year 12k is just a stepping part of Bitcoin but returning back low after a while.

according to this article Bitcoin started to be expected rising to 12k since the start of This 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/heres-how-bitcoin-gets-to-12000.html

Nothing is certain in Crypto currency investing that is why Patients is much needed here.
Hope to come soon,and will surely happens if the Corona totally gone and people starts living normal again.

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But always remember it is very rare that history is repeating itself in crypto market so let us not look from what others
 are saying but instead make our own research and perseverance if we want to make profit and stay safer.

If we break over 20k once again I will not be with you guys, I am sorry but I have lived that dropping period myself and lost a lot of money (but also gained more so I am fine, don't worry) and I have learned my lesson the hard way so I know that over 20k could be risky.

I am not saying if we go over 20k again all the same things will happen and we will see ourselves at 3-4k range once again, that was one time and it doesn't have to happen again, but also at the same time I can't say that it will never happen neither, it possibly could once again happen and that is why I believe that people should be careful about it. Which is why I will sell all my coins when we get high enough and I will start to watch it, I could lose out on possible profits but that is fine as long as I do not lose real money.