History shows Bitcoin price may take 3-12 months to finally break $20K

[kolbalish]

Bitcoin (BTC) has had four market cycles since its inception in 2009, from a bottom to a new peak. The cycles ranged from over 600 days to around 1,050 days. The most recent cycle has just surpassed 300 days, which suggests it could last 3-12 more months.

If Bitcoin’s price remains stable for several months to potentially a year, it could achieve two things. First, it could strengthen the fundamental ground of the next explosive rally as seen between 2016 and 2017. Second, it could cause other cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, to reach new heights, as some investors predict.

Why a slow grind upwards for Bitcoin is crucial in this phase
The price of Bitcoin was at a mere $3,596 on BitMEX on March 13. Within six months, BTC has recorded a 220% upsurge, outperforming most traditional assets and indices including gold.

The steep vertical rally of Bitcoin could raise the chances of whales — or large individual Bitcoin holders — to take profit. When that happens, the overleveraged nature of the futures market may result in a deep pullback due to cascading liquidations.

But if BTC gradually recovers over time and remains above the $10,000 support level, it could lead to a more sustainable and long-lasting bull cycle. 10% Holdings co-founder Dan Tepiero said:

“Prepare to be patient in Bitcoin. Each up cycle takes longer to play out and is less extreme as absolute dollar value gets much larger. May or may not be another 6-12 months before price breaks up. Should not matter as end price point obscenely higher. Hodlers rejoice.”

As an example, the past two cycles occurred around the Bitcoin block reward halving. The second halving in Bitcoin’s history happened in July 2016. The bull cycle of BTC reached its peak 17 months later in December 2017.

If Bitcoin follows a similar trend as the post-2016 halving cycle, it could see a strong uptrend in late 2021. This would also line up perfectly with the popular stock-to-flow model that suggests BTC price may reach six figures sometime next year.

What do traders see in the near term?
In the short term, some traders foresee the price of Bitcoin consolidating for an extended period. A pseudonymous trader known as “BIg Chronis” said higher time frame charts suggest a longer sideways price action.

“Holding the daily bull cross is ideal for the bulls, sideways price action can bring these into parallel without crossing, while allowing higher time frame indicators to ebb their decline... ie- I expect relative sideways ranging for a while longer.”

Michael van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, similarly said the cycle will likely last longer than the previous one. He said:

“The fun part is that this cycle will, probably, take longer than the previous one. However, it will be more insane than the previous one. I like it.”

Typically, a prolonged period of stability for Bitcoin has led the altcoin market to perform strongly. Kelvin Koh, a partner at Asia-based cryptocurrency fund Spartan Black, hinted it could buoy the sentiment around the altcoin market.

Full article is here, just go through the link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/history-shows-bitcoin-price-may-take-3-12-months-to-finally-break-20k/amp

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[kryptqnick]

The key word here is the modal verb 'may'. It may, but it also may not. Bitcoin is not big on following patterns because its price is deeply affected by opinions of investors, which are influenced by news. If the news are bullish, people will buy due to FOMO. If it's bearish, many will sell due to FUD. I think that's the closest to a rule of crypto price movement there is. So my point is, since 2020 is nothing like 2017, there's no reason to believe that the pace at which Bitcoin was moving back then would be applicable given the current situation. Bitcoin is doing remarkably well, but frankly, I'd prefer it so stabilize at the current price rather than make a run for $20k only to crash soon after it.

[larus]

No one knows will btc break 20k again in this run or not. We already stucked between 11-12k range and this getting dangerous for furhter growth

[AmoreJaz]

The key word here is the modal verb 'may'. It may, but it also may not. Bitcoin is not big on following patterns because its price is deeply affected by opinions of investors, which are influenced by news. If the news are bullish, people will buy due to FOMO. If it's bearish, many will sell due to FUD. I think that's the closest to a rule of crypto price movement there is. So my point is, since 2020 is nothing like 2017, there's no reason to believe that the pace at which Bitcoin was moving back then would be applicable given the current situation. Bitcoin is doing remarkably well, but frankly, I'd prefer it so stabilize at the current price rather than make a run for $20k only to crash soon after it.

yes, the current market situation is different from previous years but the given timeframe to achieve the $20k price level is very plausible. and yes, it may or may not achieve that price within that period. there are so many factors that are in play to achieve that price level again, times has changed and so is the crypto market. as a btc user, one should be prepared for what may happen in the next coming months or years. and also, this means that a lot of people believe that btc is heading in the positive direction and that is already a good sign that they do have faith in btc.

[Cryptpogz1]

I dont think bitcoin can reach 20k in the current future it will remain stuck in the 11/10k range

[Ayiranorea]

The growth that has taken place during the previous years can be taken as a reference point of growth, and with that we can't predict the price growth of bitcoin. Earlier 2020 was marked to be a big year for bitcoin, but things weren't the same as expected, and things didn't go as worse. Based on this there'll be good growth in price, but the chance of breaking the $20k barrier is quite low in my view. Maybe if some positive news happens relative to cryptocurrency and a top firm then we can expect big price move.

[thesmallgod]

I dont think bitcoin can reach 20k in the current future it will remain stuck in the 11/10k range

It can't be stuck in that amount. It is either it falls back below 10k or move up. Actually the recovery of the bitcoin has been great and for the past couple of weeks the recovery is incredible. I have no doubt about what the op said. We might see another bitcoin rally very soon. I don't know maybe it will reach 20k but it is very likely the next rally might take the price to something very close to that. We will keep on monitoring closely

[rexxarofmoknathal]

What you provide is a comprehensive cherry-picking market prediction while plugging in 'quotes' that support the overall statements.
Personally, though I don't know how much weight one should add to these predictions but for me one fact is clear and that is that after prolonged stabilisation a new bull cycle often follows.

So, there might be some truth to these opinions but I always think that is best to persevere in any market conditions. That way you're not betting your odds on 'what if' but taking the ups/downs of the market as it comes. This is at least my approach to crypto trading, and I must stress that this is not something I recommend everyone do as not everybody can live with this. Just practice whatever works for you.

[kezinaur14]

No one knows will btc break 20k again in this run or not. We already stucked between 11-12k range and this getting dangerous for furhter growth

It is still pretty reflective of previous halvings, I don't doubt we'll see a new ATH soon, just don't go all in in the highest peak as we'll probably drop down to $18k or even $10k afterwards.

[batang_bitcoin]

I dont think bitcoin can reach 20k in the current future it will remain stuck in the 11/10k range

It is possible to reach $20k once again. When it dropped to $3k, too many negative thoughts came out as if bitcoin will never reach $10k again but it just did last year and the price is on that resistance. It looks being stuck on the $10k-$11k range but it's much better to be seen on those prices rather than to check it everyday with the lower prices. There's really a chance that it could up within a year to $20k while we're discussing it but, as usual, it could also be that low as it's volatile.

[coolcoinz]

I've seen this projection a year ago where they were showing a 2021 20k break and 2022 new bull market top. Just remember that this projection is based on a price action following the previous 2 halvings. The second bull market took longer than the first one and the following bear market was also longer, so they're expecting the same thing to happen this time. It's like believing that if your first car broke down after 5 years and the second after 7 your third car is going to keep running for 9 years straight.

[crzy]

I dont think bitcoin can reach 20k in the current future it will remain stuck in the 11/10k range

It can't be stuck in that amount. It is either it falls back below 10k or move up. Actually the recovery of the bitcoin has been great and for the past couple of weeks the recovery is incredible. I have no doubt about what the op said. We might see another bitcoin rally very soon. I don't know maybe it will reach 20k but it is very likely the next rally might take the price to something very close to that. We will keep on monitoring closely

Bitcoin is very volatile so I also don't believe that bitcoin will stuck on the level of $10k - $11k because the price will move no matter what. Well, the OP says its possible to happen in the next 12 months so I believe it will happen since 2021 will be the year of recovery for everyone that let them buy more bitcoin. We should keep on monitoring bitcoin, don't just hold better to set strategies on selling and buying.

[Harlot]

For any analyst to predict a time frame like "3-12 months" is someone who doesn't really know what will happen to that asset. This kind of long time frame just shows how they are unsure of their own analysis and they are correct to do so as predicting Bitcoin's price by just looking at it's historical prices will just make their price prediction more inaccurate. People always compare the previous price movement of Bitcoin on it's present price movement hoping to see a pattern that was not really there in the first place. For me honestly I don't think Bitcoin can go up back up above 20,000$ this early especially if we are having a hard time to even break back up above 12,000$ just because the volume isn't really that strong to push above that level.

[nguyenvl159]

Unfortunately, the price still does not exceed the 12K mark. So it's hard to say what will happen tomorrow. Bitcoin is really an unpredictable thing

[carter34]

I dont think bitcoin can reach 20k in the current future it will remain stuck in the 11/10k range

At least you already seen that price is above $10/11. This is to show that the price of bitcoin is unstoppable. Whatever controls the price is still what many don't understand.

[grabpopcorn536]

I think bitcoin will soon reach $ 20k by 2021. Bitcoin needs a process of accumulating value to grow. As the world economy recovers, the government will print more money to boost the economy, and bitcoin will be bought by more institutions and individuals. When looking at bitcoin's chart, I am very confident as most months the price of bitcoin is in the upper band of the Bollinger Bands.

[Oasisman]

Unfortunately, the price still does not exceed the 12K mark. So it's hard to say what will happen tomorrow. Bitcoin is really an unpredictable thing

Incase you missed it, It did touched $12k twice. Then the expected pull back usually happens.
And yes Bitcoin is very unpredictable that's why we're making fundamental news and predictions right here to draw closer to the next price movement.

If Btc stabilizes at this current range, there is indeed a huge chance to make a 2017ish rally and It'll (Btc) reach new heights. The $10,000 strong support level has no indication that Btc will go near that level for now. Let's see how Btc will close out this month and how well it would open for the next 1st week of September.

[Latviand]

No one knows will btc break 20k again in this run or not. We already stucked between 11-12k range and this getting dangerous for furhter growth

Bitcoin's price is volatile, so it is always unpredictable in the market.

I have my own pattern, but i'm not sure about this and i'm observing it. Maybe in 2021, it surpass an another ATH again because as you can see in 2016 halving and the ATH occurs in the end of 2017. Probably it can happen again at the end of 2021 which is not that impossible to happen.

We have different predictions, right now we are experiencing sudden increase in its price but that's not that good enough to say that btc will reach another ATH this year.

[minairia3]

Unfortunately, the price still does not exceed the 12K mark. So it's hard to say what will happen tomorrow. Bitcoin is really an unpredictable thing

It did exceed its just that the support breaks easily. Going to 20k usd is a tough movement and lots of funds needs to roll out this. If pattern based we can see it on few months but who knows it could take a year or two. Altcoins are suppresing bitcoin investors as the market is being shifted more to defi projects which we can feel the result. More projects are keeping released so some leaving bitcoin investment.

[Finestream]

I dont think bitcoin can reach 20k in the current future it will remain stuck in the 11/10k range

Of course it will not remain stuck, otherwise, it will not move.  

To OP, history of bitcoin is the best basis to predict its future, however, bitcoin is very unpredictable so whatever basis you give, it still doesn't give an accurate way to predict the future. I believe that it's best to just believe that bitcoin will eventually skyrocket again, just like what we have seen in the last bull run, and if my memory still serves me right, I think most of us didn't expect it, the bull run lasted for awhile but bitcoin has achieved its ATH in less than 3 months.