Bitcoin Forum

In 2017, people talked about 2013 bubble, said about adoption, difference.
Bitcoin’s Present Bubble Might Actually be the Beginning of Mainstream Adoption (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoins-present-bubble-might-actually-be-the-beginning-of-mainstream-adoption)

In 2020, peopled talked about 2017 bubble, said it is different. Crypto Long & Short: 4 Metrics That Show How the Current Bitcoin Rally Is Different From 2017 (https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-rally-2020-vs-2017)

I see 2 opinions in 2017 article that makes me hiccups.
- Mass adoption
- This isn’t 2013 anymore

The article in 2020 has 2 charts for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns in 2 years and they are interesting charts but I don't agree with the article that bitcoin has more space to run up because of the past pattern and the Ethereum rise this year. Bitcoin bull run is from itself and Ethereum does not contribute to bitcoin bull run.

What makes me quite confident for this 2020 bull run is that a significant amount of money are actually from institutional investors, and it's pretty safe to assume that they're far far less easily affected by beginner investor emotions like FOMO and panic selling.

With that said, I really don't want to say the classic "this time it's different", as there's still a good chance that we're going to have something similar to 2017, just with a different price roof and price floor.

It is really annoying to see these people use bitcoin and ethereum in the same sentence let alone compare them with each other. For starters you should never look at price of any altcoin in USD terms, but instead in BTC terms because price in USD is always misleading for altcoins whenever bitcoin price is rising.

What bitcoin has is an actual value increase based on actual adoption which is why the gained value remains
instead of dumping later, whereas what ethereum has is purely pumping which is why its price gets dumped later on.

Unlike bitcoin that has actual use cases (which is always the driving force for its increasing value), ethereum is useless. From ether's inception it has only been used in anonymous fundraising for scam and low quality projects. Not to mention its unlimited supply that makes it inflationary.

This is from the Coindesk article,
Who ever wrote that must have made a fortune from the ICOs.

A case can be made this time since the introduction of wrapped btc which allows holders to lend and earn something from their bitcoin holdings [DeFi]. I just don't know if the amount is significant enough to contribute to the current btc run. Maybe someone can pull up the numbers.

Do you think that we should prey only on institutional investors to pump the price of Bitcoin?
It's true that big companies aren't affected by FOMO and panic selling,but it's also true that big companies are "under the radar" of the government,therefore a particular action taken by the government(new regulations or something else) could easily force those companies to leave the crypto markets.
Bitcoin(and cryptocurrencies in general) needs the support of the people,in order to grow and survive.

Ethereum 2.0 and staking can make it worse than it is now.

If they withdraw their bitcoin from exchanges, and don't sell when price dips or corrects, retail investors can be main forces of panic sell. With whales or without institutional bitcoin, panic sell will be done. It is the market.

Can not disagree. Roof and floor can be not the same but how it moves up and down are the same.

Wrap BTC is not bitcoin and anything happens with it can affect bitcoin reputation. I don't like it (try to connect DeFi to bitcoin to show bitcoin is decentralized) and try to connect Ethereum to DeFi by the article to predict bitcoin can rise higher).

It is what most are saying about this bull run, this is caused by natural growth. After all of that news about adoption, PayPal, and other known institutions. This is making growth as natural as it is.

In 2017 it did. The ICO bubble which originated from Ethereum actually contributed and I guess this time it still does. Due to the 2.0 and the Dapps/Defis.

Not sure what you mean with your question. Institutional investors will buy bitcoin whether we like it or not, and it's the same with retail investors. It's not like we can prevent institutional investors from buying just because of governmental risk.

The thing that alters the idea is being institutional. In my opinion, they are just like whales in this market but the difference is their identity as an institution which is open to the masses. In his claim of regulation, it is really possible thru third party networks but bottomline is that we are not required to also engage in it because it will just be an option. New ones investing through these institutions is another story.

Things might be really different from the previous years but all I know is that there's something in nature that we cannot disregard, that's volatility. Thus, things won't be hundred percent in favor with our expectations for this year's "history".

The current year witnessed many unexpected events and the next year will be a test of decentralization, as many countries will start to stop stimulating sectors and stop support for companies, then the economy will become more volatile and we may witness an economic crisis, as happened in 2008, which was a main reason for the idea of Bitcoin.

2020 bull will never be like 2017 or even 2013 because we have different rules and new players.

If the history may be repeated, then Bitcoin will reach a new ATH in Q4 of 2021 and the price will plummet in the early 2022. The price range may differ but the pattern will probably similar in 2017-2018, since the second halving in 2016 and the third in 2020, don't you think so?
I'm just curious how much bitcoin could increase in the next year and what is the new ATH, will bitcoin really hit $100k? Or whether it will be different in 2022 just like you said.

This doesn't mean that they won't sell if the market will be crashing, if anything, it's the retail investors who are likely to hodl forever, no matter what. Yes, institutional investors won't be selling at the bottom, most of them would probably sell long before that happens.

The big crash will come, that's 100% sure, because Bitcoin's volatility is still here with no signs of it going away, it's just a matter of where it will crash - at $20k or $50k or $200k.

A lot of things is going to happen this year. We've seen big companies and institution adapting crypto which create greater publicity and growing market. Its a different year and a lot of different people/group have come in.

One thing is the same, the price is still volatile but 2020 have a greater community than before. Price still is expected to crash but there is a big hope that there is new high this year.

You know 2013 was just like a test- run and an awareness launch, many people couldn't not even relate with it them, I know those who were participants then must be big-time officials by now, the idea people picked up from it is what many also attempted at the 2017 most doubtfully, then, it was confirmed genuine and not a Ponzi scheme as many thought. Now we are very confident. Bitcoin is getting better every moment.

Tbh massive institutional investors flow made me believe this time we wouldn't crush as hard as in 2018. We're all in it together now, that seems somehow comforting to me too

No, we are not in this together, although somehow it gives us a little confidence and comfort that the price won't be crashing as hard as before since the institutional investors are here. They have billions of their USD worth staked in Bitcoin. They would never allow Bitcoin to just freely fall down so hard.

But, lest we think these wealthy elites are also watching after our welfare, they will actually just come and go. They could get out anytime if they already made a good profit from Bitcoin and may shake the whole market in the process. If retail investors independently buy and sell Bitcoin, the market won't react that much. But it may only take a couple of institutional investors to dump their Bitcoin holdings for the entire market to suffer a terrible blow.  

They are buy bitcoin, they can sell bitcoin. They can withdraw bitcoin from exchanges to their wallets and in the opposite action, they can move their bitcoin from wallets to exchanges. Outflow and inflow can be flipped and it won't be a surprise if a crash occurs in the overheated market.

I don't see how the next will be a test of decentralization? The whales, the institutes won't hold all bitcoin and it does not mean they as companies hold all the bitcoin the companies bought. They bought it for their investors and hold or sell them will depend on decisions of each investors.

Different years, different conditions on the market, the world economy, politics, military conflicts and money printing but the market actions are not changed.

Mr Market has its rule to rise up or fall down or fluctuate. History can be repeated in price fractals but it is not necessary to be repeated to help price gets a new all time high.

Each bull run, more people will heard and read about bitcoin, new investors join and many of them will leave the market after all of their savings, money were eaten by the market, by liquidations. Wise and patient people will stay.

2013, 2017, 2020 or 2021 are milestones for bitcoin growth. This year, this May halving caught more attention because after this halving, block reward is 6.25 bitcoin per block. https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/
https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/images/bitcoin-inflation-chart.png

The point is there may be some people buying bitcoin so they can have it wrapped and get rewards which could have contributed to the pump. It's possible that thousands of btc's were bought from or taken off exchanges and temporarily locked on these "interest" bearing platforms. You get what I mean?

It is a risk taking activity that I don't do. Take risk, and exchange a safe asset to take a risky one (lock and get a virtual number to get interest). People who love risk will like it but I don't.

Buy bitcoin, store and hold in a non-custodial wallet is safer than lock it on any platform or hedge to get interest. Use a bitcoin custodial wallet is bad. Lock your bitcoin on custodial wallet from a platform is worse.

That's right, friend, that the increase will be predicted to occur in the next year, if you see that now it is already in high prices, it is clear a blessing from an increase that was not previously predicted. but will it continue to increase until the end of the year? i feel like nothing will happen.

All still speculative, we can't be sure if what will the market bring to us.

For now, we should enjoy what we see and hope that this strong run continue to build it's barrier, as of the moment the market are red
and most of those crypto who pumped up are retracing right now, simply because bitcoin is also falling, but with institutional investors
who are now inside, this might be a temporary fall and afterwards it will pumped back and rise to a new ath.

Never said they wouldn't. But one thing's for sure, they're far more experienced into investing in general. Things like flash crashes are going to be more calculated and risk adjusted.

The same retail investors that panic sold at 2017-2018 back down to $3k levels when things were going down?

I'm not saying you should follow their strategy. You obviously have a different risk appetite than these people I mentioned.
My response is still in relation to the argument that ethereum helped the btc pump.

Like I said, there are different levels of risks that investors are willing to take. Let them send it to lending platforms, store in crypto banks, exchanges, gambling platforms or any other centralized services. They'll only learn the value of being in fully in control once they suffered losses from hacking and funds locking.

Since 2017, mass adoption still going on and until now, I think the progress is good. Bitcoin can reach more people, and now, we see that many people out there are trying to invest in bitcoin. We also see that a company like Paypal also integrates its website with bitcoin to make its members' adoption start. Yes, this isn't 2013 anymore, and the adoption still happens. We will see this year or next year will be the next bull run.

We can never tell if there's a real mass adoption happening here, I'd say it's too early for that to happen, most of the major development has not put in place yet and I believe it's just us who are speculating and with the power of the whales, they were able to manipulate the market and let people ride. I'm afraid that panic will happen once this correction continues.

I'm not sure I'd be calling them investors if they panic sell;) It's generally IMO the speculators and traders (with all their Bitcoins stuck on exchanges forever) who're the ones playing with BTC/USDT. Then again, all the Bitcoin congestion during rallies and crashes means there are people who decide to move Bitcoin off to make profit or cut losses. Weak hands as I understand definitely refer to retail;)

The difference has been talked a million times here, when you are moving from 150 dollars to 1400 dollars you do not need that much money in the market, when you move from 1000 to 20k you do need a ton of money, and when you move from 10k to 20k you need less money than the 2017 run but more money than the 2013 one. Which is why I would list the awesomeness of the increases as 2017 to 2020 to 2013 personally.

However what we should also see here is that before the 2013 bull run the price was around 150 dollars or so and just 4 years later we have seen 20k and just 3 years later we are doing another x7 increase from the bottom after 2017 (3k) and to back to ATH price once again (or maybe even higher). So, things are looking good the longer it takes but we are talking about just very few years in between making huge leaps.

The main problem with your analysis is that you are comparing 2020 to 2017/2013. In a year you should be comparing 2021 to 2017/2013. If you're gonna compare 2020 to a previous year then you should be comparing it to 2016. You're fundamentally missing basic Bitcoin market dynamics if you think 2020 is like previous boom years. 2020 is the "getting back to/near ATH" year, which is what 2016 was. 2020 is by no means a boom year, that only happens once Bitcoin launches off the previous market cycle peak.

If this was last market cycle Bitcoin would be at like $900 right now and you'd writing about in this post how Bitcoin doesn't have more room to run and how the fledging Ethereum won't contribute to Bitcoin price appreciation. Then you'd miss out on the 20x gains of the following year and the fact that ETH's ICO boom helped Bitcoin's run out immensely by bringing in many more people to the crypto market.

Also the retail frenzy HASN'T EVEN BEGUN yet in this market cycle. The recent price pump is mostly from institutional investors. Grayscale, well known Wall St billionaires, and corporations have been buying up hundreds of thousands of bitcoin the past few months while literally only about 1/100th of that amount has been newly minted BTC during that time. And these are long term investors, not newbie retail traders that are going to panic sell as soon as the price starts dropping - that may be why we only just had a short shallow correction instead of a full blown 30-40% correction this past week because long term investors have been mass buying up the market so the floor is significantly raised now as compared to just 6 months ago when the floor was like $8k/9k. Throw in a little bit of an expanded market from limited Paypal crypto service so far and you can see we are only a month into what may be a year long full-on bull run.

I understood your points and you stepped in my shoes. You should know it is not my analysis and I was shocked when people compare 2020 with 2017 and 2013 and such low quality article is published on high traffic site. It is a big joke that is misleading newbies in crypto market.

I do realize the four year cycle of the crypto market (not only for bitcoin). There are many shit altcoins and no matter how high their prices are at all time highs, they are acceptable altcoins if they can survive through at least a 1 four year cycle of the market. I don't say those survivals are good altcoins but they show their development activities, usecases and supports from community. Anyway 4 years are not short and survival through past 4 years does not give you an assurance for another survival next 4 years.

The comparison between Bitcoin and Ethereum is not mine and I emphasized my opinion that comparison is wrong. There is capital flow and it affects capital flow into Bitcoin, altcoins, Ethereum in short period and in the long term growth, Ethereum can not affect bitcoin.

I know about retail investment that is reflected in the Google Trend search chart (https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin) and how it boosted bitcoin price in 2017. Grayscale and Institutional investments are discussed Bitcoin Treasuries (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5280947.msg55343417#msg55343417) (data is from https://bitcointreasuries.org/) and I know that. I believe the market is overheating now and pull back will appear anytime. Any pull back (14% to 30%) will be good dips to load up more bitcoin, not to shake out. Bitcoin is on bullish and parabolic phase.

Thank you for the very informative and astute post.

2020 Bullrun? what about the dump that happened earlier?
DUMP of $ 800 goes to Bitcoin and goes back to under $ 19k, then it recovers quickly, and goes back to $ 19k and above,
that is really very volatile, maybe Bitcoin is a bubble.

ETF and six figures in 2021. Don’t miss the dollar chasing dimes.

yeah obviously different because in 2017 when the Bull happens and Bitcoin Hit the 20,000 ATH the market capitalization is more than 800 trillion but look at the market now,Bitcoin took $19,800 yet the market cap is just 500 trillion above.
Crashing happens by situation and i believe that if ever there comes again this is from worldwide economic problem and not just dumping like 2018.this time people here are more in trust with their coins and not just purely investing,They might sell when the value pump but will surely buy back when the value dumps.

Please don't let the marketcap distorts your minds. It is a misleading term to show the growth of crypto market that will be only correct or nearly correct if you exclude all faked pumping marketcap from shit coins or shit tokens. In bullish time, scam projects with high coin or token values and high total supplies will contribute too much to the marketcap.

If you are talking about the growth of bitcoin and bitcoin market, please look at bitcoin price, bitcoin marketcap, and bitcoin trading volume growth.

Volatile, yes. Bubble, no because bitcoin is warming up and has only still been in its very early phase of bullish market. Bitcoin has not yet jumped into its full bullish market. Any correction from now till the full bullish market will be healthy corrections. Buy healthy dips.

I would say 2021 going to be even crazier. Think about it, all of this happened in the past 2-3 months right now, and we are going to be in 2021 in just one month, which means we are going to actually see a whole year of starting with huge price. If the price stands at around 18-19k range for a whole month without dropping (even without a need to go up) we are going to start a whole year with such a huge price, and unless it has a year like 2018 where it crashes and burns, we are going to see something major.

Even a 10-20% increase would yield like 3-4 thousand increase easily, that is going to be awesome because 10-20% increases are very common in crypto, even at this price it keeps happening all the time. So long story short I have to say that we are going to be either awesome in 2021 or very bad like 2018.

Its still hot money that can retract, the real hard line for a rising tide in BTC has to be actual users or the population of frequently used wallets.    People will naturally hold BTC between themselves for years at a time so long as they have used it previously and intend to do so in future ( the greater the rate of exchange the higher the monetary velocity and apparently the market worth of BTC, trading imo doesnt count for that)   It might only be a small amount per person because its not speculative but literally their budget for whatever online BTC market they look at but thats the true pricing for crypto long term not the hopes and fears of whatever money managers are coming in with.   We can still go very high and its of benefit to BTC that we have wider interest but I remain apprehensive about when decide to go spend their profits and then that becomes the new trend.
   There is a froth on every wave quite noticeable and there is also quite a soft layer of buying but past that is a much stronger tide change and I know we're in the speculative forum section but its the tide I prefer to watch long term.

I like that you also mentioned the possible bad side, with the current price, lots of investors have already made a decent profit as we are almost hitting a new ATH. Those who bought bitcoin at below $10,000 have already doubled their investment, so I'm thinking even if bitcoin will reach a new ATH, a correction is still likely to happen.

The events of 2013, 2017 are very different from those of now 2020, ETH has nothing to do with the bullish race of Bitcoin, that is, without Bitcoin there is no ETH and all the other ALTS, Bitcoin is the King and it is the which has a life of its own, the other cryptocurrencies do not have a life of their own because they depend on the movements of Bitcoin. There is still a need for the true bullish trend, the market for me is growing by my own effort and not because now I have to have a new ATH, I think that the ATH will be close to $ 50k, and I think that for this you may have to wait until less a few more months.

Ethereum has it's own bull run and it has no contribution to Bitcoin's bull run it is to each it's own, and besides Bitcoin dominance over all the coins makes it superior and no altcoins can add or contribute to it's status, all altcoins are still under Bitcoin, if Bitcoin crash the altcoins follow.

I'd argue all economies have some influence and there is a strong connection between ETH and BTC in that one or the other may retain some capital to buy the other.    There are some involved in ETH who buy to take part in a project there and might then buy BTC by selling ETH with any excess.   Obviously people dont just sell ETH to dollar and back only, its also by exchange to other blockchains.    Its also possible people do this when fees for BTC transfer is a higher charge.


We're likely to be higher in 2021, its worth watching the Dollar index which has been weak all year since March.   A retraction of capital into strength of the dollar would suggest lower but so far thats not a normal expectation from current events.

I think this was just a mini bull run as the resistance right now on 20k$ is even bigger than the days before so I think the bulls run out of fuel for now and bears is slowly taking over the markets. I saw a lot of predictions lately that a dump might be a on the days/weeks. However if bitcoin pulled out a run like this kinda out of nowhere, maybe it can do it again.

I agree that mass adoption is progressing very much, but I must note that practically only in one aspect - investing in bitcoin. Now it is very difficult to surprise someone with investments in cryptocurrency, many ordinary people are already doing this and are familiar with this topic.
If we talk about bitcoin as a means of payment, then, unfortunately, progress is much slower.

The thing that has happened in the last few months, is that all altcoins are still very much affected by the movement of bitcoin and cannot escape. so that when it goes up, altcoins also follow but when they go down altcoins also can't escape. all of them are still heavily affected by bitcoin and cannot escape.

No surprise and we can even say that people whom do mostly get involved into this market specially with Bitcoin will always matter most of the time about making money and not totally be minding
off with its actual usage which it isnt really surprising because it is just part of human nature to have those kind of motives in mind and reactions towards the market.Good thing here is that
we are really getting some recognition as the years passed.There would be definitely a comparison in regards to the level of awareness and adoption of bitcoin between those years and up to present.
Thing here is that if you do go for long term then current prices wont able to shook you off but if you are on profit side of things then you can tell the difference.

It is my thoughts too. The market is overheated, and rose up too much in few months. People have their belief that if institutes spend money to invest and created what are called as institutional investment bubbles, price has strong supports at price whales bought up. They are wrong IMO. Whales can buy and whales can sell. The bitcoin market does not solely belong to institutes that join the market in last couple of months. Whales are in the market for years and they are truly power to manipulate the market. New institutes in the market are newbies and whales take advantage of such news and huge capital flow to raise bitcoin price.

Fuel and momentum are running out and pull back will be used to help whales enrich their bitcoin amount.

I understand the motives of people and even support them, but we must understand that if there is a new system that works better than the old system, then there must be a gradual replacement of the old system. Is this the case with bitcoin? How many people use it as a payment system (I mean retrospective analysis).

In 2017 bull run had happened because of ICO hype and that's why after the bull run the market remained bearish for two years. But this time it seems a bull run is going happen very soon. Current Defi hype and many major companies have invested in BTC and that could be the reason for the current bullish trend.

If we talk about bitcoin as payment, I think we need to give more time to see it grow. But in another thing, I think people think about investing in bitcoin because they see that bitcoin has a chance to increase more than before. If the bitcoin price can raise more than $25k in the next year or even higher, people will race to invest in bitcoin. So it is no problem if bitcoin is only for the investment thing now and next year because people will see the other benefits of bitcoin soon, especially if they can read more news or learn more about bitcoin.

If you say because of the ICO, it should be ICO which has to be more profitable before bitcoin will rise. I didn't see it last bull run, what makes the market bullish is because of bitcoin hitting its ATH, remember, after the ATH was achieve, next thing that happen was altcoins pumping like crazy and it only started to dump when bitcoin dumped first.

comparing De-Fi vs ICO, I guess ICO was way bigger  because even ETH was the product of ICO.

Hopefully this bull run will not end the same way. So far whenever we had a huge bull run, we ended up with nothing huge and that really upsets me, I would like to see the crypto prices go up and continue to go up, or at least stay up, but whenever we have a huge bull run, it ends up with something not so well for all of us and the price drops significantly to 50% or even more what it used to be.

This means we could go under $10k, and I do not want to see that again. I can accept the fact that price may not go over $20k for a while, we could be between $15k-20k prices for months and months, those are all fine for me, I just hope that we do not go too low. That always hurts us for very long period and recovering from that takes a long time as well which lacks profit for all of us.

2017 could be called a bubble but for this years acceptance and adoption then we can really tell that we had progressed and presume that the price wont really be crashing off that hard just like in 2017 where you cant find any solid sentiment on why the price had skyrocketed so fast without knowing the actual reason comparing to now that its truly evident and obvious that current adoptions and institutional funds are flowing already
into this market which you can really tell that we are doing much better now compared into those years were increases can really be considered to be
bubble but not all the years we've been sticking into that part.

2020 is most definitely a bubble, its unavoidable across the whole world seems like to me because its quite deliberate and not hidden.   We have a bubble in Dollar which until it pops and surely it will that means we are also seeing inflated effects elsewhere and imo we will see a volatility bull market because we all know its impossible to create free money or save the world with a printing press so this and many other markets will surely whip back and forth as we go into alot of inaccuracy and uncertainties.    We just have to judge the trading as we go and on fundamentals which of the two is a better aid to even trade and value.
   Right this moment we got something of a pullback in proposition occurring, 4% down over 7 days but 20% up in 30 day with 150% over the last year most impressive.

2020 is most definitely not a bubble. You can't even begin to compare it to past bitcoin bubbles, because the bubble part hasn't even started! We're in 2016 right now, not 2017. We're still UNDER the ATH. The bubbles don't even get going at all until we get significantly passed the old peak. 2018 was crash, 2019 was end of bear market and start of bull market, 2020 was buildup back to old peak, 2021 will be the boom year which will be a bubble. Price will be way way higher than this before we have to start worrying about Bitcoin crashing from a bubble into a bear market. We're almost certainly still a good bit under whatever the bottom of the next bear market will be in a couple years. Bitcoin right now is the rocket sitting on the launchpad just starting to fire its thrusters, hasn't even left the ground yet. 2021 is the blast off.

Of course it is, if we compared what happened the price and the situation in the last three years after that big drop, things are looking good right now, for the last three years we are all talking about how to get past $10k $12k but now all we are reading are all post about the next all time high, we have come a long way and there's a possibility of a new record.

Some cycles happens naturally, it doesn't mean that it will continue to happen in the future neither, but since there will always be some ups in crypto world, we can't just say that there are none at all. The logic is this, bitcoin started around in 2009 right?

Let's say it was around 2010 or 2011 when it became something more popular over just an idea. That means we had 10 years and in 10 years do you really imagine it would NEVER go up? That means it would have some moments when it will go up, which means during those moments that were inevitable to go up, there will be some break in between right? And we are going to put up those moments side by side and we will look for a pattern or something, it could have been 2012-2015-2019 and we would have still found some.

 Below is a 'rant' IF the Trump Adminstration does plan some 'dubious' clarity regulation on self-held wallets and link them to USA KYC exchanges in some manner.

Which, IMHO, I think 'doomed' but likely. How I plan to profit from such, why Buy/Buy/Buy on the dip for a month or so indeed!

There is a 'chance' IMHO if you 'believe' (I know dubious) that Steven Mnuchin and the Treasury really does not like BTC/Crypto and leaving office and all will

'stick' some 'unrealistic' 'must report you self-hosting wallets to exchanges under KYC or some other nonsense. I myself feel, that he and the

Trump Administration WILL do something along these lines, simply because they are doing 'dubious' regulations before the Biden Administration

takes office, all over the place, so why not?

Everyone involved with the above, no matter how 'dubious' or short-sided, if it came to pass, is going to be tossed out of their

office or their Trump-appointed agency anyway. This along with 'ignoring' house and senate representatives who are trying to stop these supposed actions and

to back off due

to no open hearings, and this blindside of excess...on such rules.

It all really smells like on the last chance attempt to make BTC/Crypto look 'evil' before the last gasps of the Trump Administration leave the office.

I'll fully embrace my fear, that if the above is so, it will happen soon after December 15th, 2020 when 'supposedly' and finally the mt.gox

say no more BTC to this day or 2) you were so back in 2014 in HODL'er early adoption mode, you will simply hodl this windfall as well.

So in both cases, the person, who does get reimbursed from mt. gox, IMHO, will LIKELY just HODL from either being left out for years due to the mt.gox

fiasco and this is a way to 'catch up' at least some of the BTC lost, from way back. Or most such are early adopters from 2014 and in HODL mode

since then and will continue to HODL....with the rest of their BTC/Crypto to this day.

But...the bull run...if it ends this month will be more due to 'supposed' and regulations of dubious nature on declaring your own wallet ...self-hosted or not

to use a USA exchange than the mt.gox issue. But, the timing should be 'interesting' indeed. I think the regulators are well aware of mt.gox deadline and

will spring these regulations soon after December 15th, 2020 to, in their hope, do 'maximum damage' to BTC/Crypto and disorder for the Biden Administration

to deal with. In other words, no 'different' than all the other 'dubious' regulations the Trump Administration is dumping this month. :(

So myself, I think there is a 'small chance' of the price dumping as much as 1/4 from the ATH due to these regulatory games mostly and timing.

Not to be 'too' dismal.

I think any such regulation would be put on HODL by the Biden Administration along with many others after the Biden Administration takes office..

so there will be price issues until such is resolved.

So this won't last price-wise IMHO. To 'obvious' a 'burn and destroy' tactic. I see prices rebounding sometime at 'worst' in the next 2-3 months to another ATH.

So it is a 'buy' time indeed for BTC in my case, if this does come to pass on the above.  Buy/Buy/Buy my inner BTC Kool-Aid 'drinking' self, is shouting in my mind! :)

If I am 'wrong' and in some manner, such dubious regulations stay in place in the USA and such, well, that I see as 1% chance, but IF?

Then my BTC/Crypto Hodl/Hoard will mean nothing, eventually, if BTC/Crypto due to price alone can be that manipulated.

Again, if it is THAT easy to destroy BTC/Crypto vs obvious $$$ worth vs BTC/Crypto dubious regulations, that cause HODL'er's to 'panic'. Well, I suppose the 'bit'

of BTC I plan to buy on this 'supposed' dip if the above conditions are met, won't matter a hell of a lot, compared to someone's BTC/Crypto HODL. :(

So, I'm still HODL'ing on this fast, and IMHO, this probable 'shot across the bow' of BTC/Crypto and again, using a 'dubious' regulation will be

short-term the price may tumble....but it will slap back up as it has in the past with such games played against BTC/Crypto on a hopeless quest for control.

So I will 'buy' in when this happens. Dig pennies out of the couch cushions, raid the emergency fund, etc.

If I am wrong it won't matter, and the supposed regulators, in their angst to control works and the price does not recover, then BTC/Crypto can

be manipulated and I should get out. If I am right, this will be probably the 'last' chance before the next pump to get some BTC/Crypto

on this attempted FUD fest...which again, I see as lame and gonna fail for some of the above reasons I mentioned. So hell, take advantage of this!

So getting some cash together and 'considering' dumping some dubious 'dust' shitcoins from back in the mining day to boot towards BTC dust.

Again, I don't endorse these 'supposed' clarity of regulations or FUD, just saying if it does happen, maybe a person can profit from such, IF ONE believes

the Biden Administration will not let such dubious regulations stand, and the BTC/Crypto infrastructure of exchanges and such will stop such in its tracks.

Anyway, I post this here and we can see if it all is a big fuss about nothing, or my pre-planning to buy BTC on such silly actions will bear fruit. :)

So as this thread implies on the 2020 bull run, if we have a big pushback in price it will be because of manipulation and will not hang together.

The usual ATH then FOMO then FUD (FUD by the doubters who always get caught by surprise on the ATH and such)

So if my dubious guesses come to pass you should 'buy cheap coin' as a result...if my 'dubious guesses don't come to pass 'buy even more' because

the price is gonna pump!

Anyway, how I'm playing this game with the likelihood of these 'clarity' of regulations for BTC/Crypto being 'anything' less than an attack on price. :(

end of rant

Bitcoin: Always Drama! (tm BTC) :)

Brad

Every halving has it's own milestone so far 2017 still holds the best record and the 2020 bull run is still a work in progress, we'll see the results this coming 2021 because 2021 is still a continuation of 2020 achievement, we are still good now with the current market price because it's much better than what we have in the last three years, but could be better if we can have another big pump before the closing of the year.

If we compare what happens in 2013, 2017, and 2020, the situation is different, which in this year, the adoption is growing fast. And the bubbles in this year will not be the same as before, but the crypto market will get the bull run, which can lift the price of bitcoin and altcoin. Bitcoin will get ATH again, although we don't know or sure about the highest price, while ethereum and the other altcoin will get the same thing. But for the altcoin, only the coin that has support from the people can increase.

Every four years we see a bitcoin bull run to the new all time high but each time there are different factors which contribute to it. 2017 was the year where we have a lot of ICO and retail investors jumping in. 2020 is different in a way that this time we see institutes are adopting and buying bitcoin. Since the institutes have more buying power, we could see a high spike in bitcoin price this time.

I'm interested to know if that every 4 years you are talking is really a trend.

When was the last time bull run happened? 2017, right? how about prior to that?
My point is, the market is very unpredictable, we sometimes based on its trend but it does not guarantee it will happen in the future, so this year we might not see a bull run.

Halving is really something special and I didn't believed people but it turns out they were all right. First we started the year at 7k and I said best it can do would be 10k, after that we crashed because of pandemic in march like every other market to a bottom of 4k and that was bad, but before the halving happened we moved to 10k and I said that was it, price is calculated in right now for halving and that was the last increase we saw, increasing 2.5x during pandemic was already huge so I doubt it would matter.

However as it turns out we didn't stay there and right now 2x even on top of that. I guess people like me will realize that halving has a much much bigger impact on bitcoin than we may have realized, it will definitely get a lot better in the end when next halving happens.

Bitcoin hit its all time high in 2017 is not because of ICOs. Please stop any link from bitcoin to shit altcoins and ICOs. Bitcoin rose in 2017 because the halving in 2016 and more people heard of bitcoin in 2017. Bitcoin was adopted and used as salary payment method by GMO, used to buy plan tickets, etc.
Those news and hype on future adoption of bitcoin help to catch retail investors.

JohnBitCo mentioned the cycle of bitcoin price, not its four year bull run. The cycle of price relates to the halving event each 4 year. One year after the halving year, bitcoin rises a lot. History can repeat itself or can not but I am bullish with bitcoin next year.

Bitcoin is well known by its votality. I spent my money to invest in bitcoin for long term so I can ignore small hiccups along its ride to the new all time high. You said most of people only thought bitcoin can end this year at $10k so why they did not take profit? They keep their hope and dream high after price exceeds their targets.

I often stick with my plan and price target to take profit. After that moment, I exit the market and only observe it for a few weeks. Take a break from the market is not bad.

In 2013 bubbles wasn't well pronounced becasue the industry just started it journey back then but those who started early made so much gains but not compared to now. Then in 2017, the industry changed it ways of operations in term of promotion, the ICOs started pumping into the industry and this caused small retailers getting interested into the word of cryptocurrency and later turned scamming. And in 2020, the market has attracted tons of institutional investors alongside individual investors which made the recent bullish more robust compared to other years. 

people often compare years because they saw similarities in the movement of the price but the exact price will rarely repeat , you already state the reason why .

yes that is because adoption now is more stronger than before but the more the price can rise the chance of having a big dump or a huge bubble is also getting more realistic but lets not worry too much because even if gets popped out we can still experience a recovery but only for those valueable coin like btc and eth .

When we do compare the adoption level compared in 2017 and to this year then we can really tell  the difference which we can presume that the price
wont really be crashing that hard incase the bubble would pop out.

We might be moving that fast in a short span of time and giving out that the same feeling in year 2017 and some had already sell off their stashes when
it hits up 19k.

Thing here is that you do secure out your profits or you are already in greens.

I think you need to revisit the 2017 price charts because there is nothing similar between the $19k today and $19k of 2017. in case you have forgotten price went from about $8000 to close to $20000 in about 3 weeks which is one of the main reasons why it was a bubble.
In comparison this rise to nearly $20k has taken 3 months and that is after a very slow rise to $10k.
The feeling these days have are the same feeling as the end of 2016 when price was getting close to the ATH of that time.

I guess it is going to be a bit harder than we imagined, we are in a bull run for sure but it is not as much of a "bull" as it used to be, back in the day when there was a bull run we increased almost x10 of what we used to be, we are not doing that anymore and we can't do that anymore neither. It is at a situation where we are in a world where x10 is nearly impossible, now we are calling a bit of profit a bull run and that is really sad.

I get that we are above 20k now and that is what people wants to think as a bull run, but just because we broke all time high doesn't mean we are in a bull run. Let's assume we reached 25k and stayed there for months, dropped to under 20k and moved back to 25k few times, we are "used to" being 25k right? If we move to 30k is that suddenly bull run? I doubt so.

very accurate predictions, 2020 is indeed bullrun, and the start is 2020,
2021-2022 I believe the price of cryptocurrencies will be even more expensive, and Bitcoin could reach $ 100k.

The true causes of these short term bubbles are all pretty much the same - an injection of mainstream and institutional interest, combined with the excitement drawn from the halving, all lead to seemingly endless rallies.

Sure, 2020/21 will be another bubble that will eventually correct, but it will likely bottom out at a much higher price. Just like how $1.3k was the top and was established as a firm support level in the 2017 rallies, and the support at $4k had been tested earlier this year in March/April.

And all of this really comes back to a long term price progression that you need to zoom out to see. As more people adopt and the fundamentals of BTC improves, there is a long term uptrend. These short term bubbles and busts are all bumps in the road that should not overly concern holders.