2013, 2017 bubbles and 2020 bull run

[MusaMohamed]

In 2017, people talked about 2013 bubble, said about adoption, difference.
Bitcoin’s Present Bubble Might Actually be the Beginning of Mainstream Adoption

In 2020, peopled talked about 2017 bubble, said it is different. Crypto Long & Short: 4 Metrics That Show How the Current Bitcoin Rally Is Different From 2017

I see 2 opinions in 2017 article that makes me hiccups.
- Mass adoption
- This isn’t 2013 anymore

The article in 2020 has 2 charts for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns in 2 years and they are interesting charts but I don't agree with the article that bitcoin has more space to run up because of the past pattern and the Ethereum rise this year. Bitcoin bull run is from itself and Ethereum does not contribute to bitcoin bull run.

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[mk4]

What makes me quite confident for this 2020 bull run is that a significant amount of money are actually from institutional investors, and it's pretty safe to assume that they're far far less easily affected by beginner investor emotions like FOMO and panic selling.

With that said, I really don't want to say the classic "this time it's different", as there's still a good chance that we're going to have something similar to 2017, just with a different price roof and price floor.

[pooya87]

It is really annoying to see these people use bitcoin and ethereum in the same sentence let alone compare them with each other. For starters you should never look at price of any altcoin in USD terms, but instead in BTC terms because price in USD is always misleading for altcoins whenever bitcoin price is rising.

What bitcoin has is an actual value increase based on actual adoption which is why the gained value remains
instead of dumping later, whereas what ethereum has is purely pumping which is why its price gets dumped later on.

Unlike bitcoin that has actual use cases (which is always the driving force for its increasing value), ethereum is useless. From ether's inception it has only been used in anonymous fundraising for scam and low quality projects. Not to mention its unlimited supply that makes it inflationary.

[Yogee]

This is from the Coindesk article,

The 2017 bull market is remembered as a phenomenon driven by enthusiasm for initial coin offerings (ICOs) on Ethereum. However, by the time the frenzy reached its fever pitch, ether (ETH) had largely completed its run. At the midpoint of 2017 Q4, bitcoin returns were 23.9%; ether returns were 6.9%. It was bitcoin’s Q4 catch-up run that fed the bulls.

Who ever wrote that must have made a fortune from the ICOs.

.... Bitcoin bull run is from itself and Ethereum does not contribute to bitcoin bull run.

A case can be made this time since the introduction of wrapped btc which allows holders to lend and earn something from their bitcoin holdings [DeFi]. I just don't know if the amount is significant enough to contribute to the current btc run. Maybe someone can pull up the numbers.

[davis196]

What makes me quite confident for this 2020 bull run is that a significant amount of money are actually from institutional investors, and it's pretty safe to assume that they're far far less easily affected by beginner investor emotions like FOMO and panic selling.

With that said, I really don't want to say the classic "this time it's different", as there's still a good chance that we're going to have something similar to 2017, just with a different price roof and price floor.

Do you think that we should prey only on institutional investors to pump the price of Bitcoin?
It's true that big companies aren't affected by FOMO and panic selling,but it's also true that big companies are "under the radar" of the government,therefore a particular action taken by the government(new regulations or something else) could easily force those companies to leave the crypto markets.
Bitcoin(and cryptocurrencies in general) needs the support of the people,in order to grow and survive.

[MusaMohamed]

Unlike bitcoin that has actual use cases (which is always the driving force for its increasing value), ethereum is useless. From ether's inception it has only been used in anonymous fundraising for scam and low quality projects. Not to mention its unlimited supply that makes it inflationary.

Ethereum 2.0 and staking can make it worse than it is now.

What makes me quite confident for this 2020 bull run is that a significant amount of money are actually from institutional investors, and it's pretty safe to assume that they're far far less easily affected by beginner investor emotions like FOMO and panic selling.

If they withdraw their bitcoin from exchanges, and don't sell when price dips or corrects, retail investors can be main forces of panic sell. With whales or without institutional bitcoin, panic sell will be done. It is the market.

With that said, I really don't want to say the classic "this time it's different", as there's still a good chance that we're going to have something similar to 2017, just with a different price roof and price floor.

Can not disagree. Roof and floor can be not the same but how it moves up and down are the same.

A case can be made this time since the introduction of wrapped btc which allows holders to lend and earn something from their bitcoin holdings [DeFi]. I just don't know if the amount is significant enough to contribute to the current btc run. Maybe someone can pull up the numbers.

Wrap BTC is not bitcoin and anything happens with it can affect bitcoin reputation. I don't like it (try to connect DeFi to bitcoin to show bitcoin is decentralized) and try to connect Ethereum to DeFi by the article to predict bitcoin can rise higher).

[batang_bitcoin]

It is what most are saying about this bull run, this is caused by natural growth. After all of that news about adoption, PayPal, and other known institutions. This is making growth as natural as it is.

Bitcoin bull run is from itself and Ethereum does not contribute to bitcoin bull run.

In 2017 it did. The ICO bubble which originated from Ethereum actually contributed and I guess this time it still does. Due to the 2.0 and the Dapps/Defis.

[mk4]

Do you think that we should prey only on institutional investors to pump the price of Bitcoin?
It's true that big companies aren't affected by FOMO and panic selling,but it's also true that big companies are "under the radar" of the government,therefore a particular action taken by the government(new regulations or something else) could easily force those companies to leave the crypto markets.
Bitcoin(and cryptocurrencies in general) needs the support of the people,in order to grow and survive.

Not sure what you mean with your question. Institutional investors will buy bitcoin whether we like it or not, and it's the same with retail investors. It's not like we can prevent institutional investors from buying just because of governmental risk.

[CODE200]

Do you think that we should prey only on institutional investors to pump the price of Bitcoin?
It's true that big companies aren't affected by FOMO and panic selling,but it's also true that big companies are "under the radar" of the government,therefore a particular action taken by the government(new regulations or something else) could easily force those companies to leave the crypto markets.
Bitcoin(and cryptocurrencies in general) needs the support of the people,in order to grow and survive.

Not sure what you mean with your question. Institutional investors will buy bitcoin whether we like it or not, and it's the same with retail investors. It's not like we can prevent institutional investors from buying just because of governmental risk.

The thing that alters the idea is being institutional. In my opinion, they are just like whales in this market but the difference is their identity as an institution which is open to the masses. In his claim of regulation, it is really possible thru third party networks but bottomline is that we are not required to also engage in it because it will just be an option. New ones investing through these institutions is another story.

Things might be really different from the previous years but all I know is that there's something in nature that we cannot disregard, that's volatility. Thus, things won't be hundred percent in favor with our expectations for this year's "history".

[Husires]

The current year witnessed many unexpected events and the next year will be a test of decentralization, as many countries will start to stop stimulating sectors and stop support for companies, then the economy will become more volatile and we may witness an economic crisis, as happened in 2008, which was a main reason for the idea of Bitcoin.

2020 bull will never be like 2017 or even 2013 because we have different rules and new players.

[CyberKuro]

everything has its time, and the period of bitcoin is every 4 years,
that's according to history, because history says that after the Bitcoin Halving has increased significantly,
and this makes 2020 a year for bulls, it can't be denied, 2021 - 2022 will also be more bullish , we'll see.

If the history may be repeated, then Bitcoin will reach a new ATH in Q4 of 2021 and the price will plummet in the early 2022. The price range may differ but the pattern will probably similar in 2017-2018, since the second halving in 2016 and the third in 2020, don't you think so?
I'm just curious how much bitcoin could increase in the next year and what is the new ATH, will bitcoin really hit $100k? Or whether it will be different in 2022 just like you said.

[hatshepsut93]

What makes me quite confident for this 2020 bull run is that a significant amount of money are actually from institutional investors, and it's pretty safe to assume that they're far far less easily affected by beginner investor emotions like FOMO and panic selling.

This doesn't mean that they won't sell if the market will be crashing, if anything, it's the retail investors who are likely to hodl forever, no matter what. Yes, institutional investors won't be selling at the bottom, most of them would probably sell long before that happens.

The big crash will come, that's 100% sure, because Bitcoin's volatility is still here with no signs of it going away, it's just a matter of where it will crash - at $20k or $50k or $200k.

[fishbonez11]

A lot of things is going to happen this year. We've seen big companies and institution adapting crypto which create greater publicity and growing market. Its a different year and a lot of different people/group have come in.

One thing is the same, the price is still volatile but 2020 have a greater community than before. Price still is expected to crash but there is a big hope that there is new high this year.

[TIDOVEE]

In 2017, people talked about 2013 bubble, said about adoption, difference.
Bitcoin’s Present Bubble Might Actually be the Beginning of Mainstream Adoption

In 2020, peopled talked about 2017 bubble, said it is different. Crypto Long & Short: 4 Metrics That Show How the Current Bitcoin Rally Is Different From 2017

I see 2 opinions in 2017 article that makes me hiccups.
- Mass adoption
- This isn’t 2013 anymore

The article in 2020 has 2 charts for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns in 2 years and they are interesting charts but I don't agree with the article that bitcoin has more space to run up because of the past pattern and the Ethereum rise this year. Bitcoin bull run is from itself and Ethereum does not contribute to bitcoin bull run.

You know 2013 was just like a test- run and an awareness launch, many people couldn't not even relate with it them, I know those who were participants then must be big-time officials by now, the idea people picked up from it is what many also attempted at the 2017 most doubtfully, then, it was confirmed genuine and not a Ponzi scheme as many thought. Now we are very confident. Bitcoin is getting better every moment.

[gerica0613]

Tbh massive institutional investors flow made me believe this time we wouldn't crush as hard as in 2018. We're all in it together now, that seems somehow comforting to me too

[Darker45]

Tbh massive institutional investors flow made me believe this time we wouldn't crush as hard as in 2018. We're all in it together now, that seems somehow comforting to me too

No, we are not in this together, although somehow it gives us a little confidence and comfort that the price won't be crashing as hard as before since the institutional investors are here. They have billions of their USD worth staked in Bitcoin. They would never allow Bitcoin to just freely fall down so hard.

But, lest we think these wealthy elites are also watching after our welfare, they will actually just come and go. They could get out anytime if they already made a good profit from Bitcoin and may shake the whole market in the process. If retail investors independently buy and sell Bitcoin, the market won't react that much. But it may only take a couple of institutional investors to dump their Bitcoin holdings for the entire market to suffer a terrible blow.  

[MusaMohamed]

This doesn't mean that they won't sell if the market will be crashing, if anything, it's the retail investors who are likely to hodl forever, no matter what. Yes, institutional investors won't be selling at the bottom, most of them would probably sell long before that happens.

The big crash will come, that's 100% sure, because Bitcoin's volatility is still here with no signs of it going away, it's just a matter of where it will crash - at $20k or $50k or $200k.

They are buy bitcoin, they can sell bitcoin. They can withdraw bitcoin from exchanges to their wallets and in the opposite action, they can move their bitcoin from wallets to exchanges. Outflow and inflow can be flipped and it won't be a surprise if a crash occurs in the overheated market.

The current year witnessed many unexpected events and the next year will be a test of decentralization, as many countries will start to stop stimulating sectors and stop support for companies, then the economy will become more volatile and we may witness an economic crisis, as happened in 2008, which was a main reason for the idea of Bitcoin.

2020 bull will never be like 2017 or even 2013 because we have different rules and new players.

I don't see how the next will be a test of decentralization? The whales, the institutes won't hold all bitcoin and it does not mean they as companies hold all the bitcoin the companies bought. They bought it for their investors and hold or sell them will depend on decisions of each investors.

Different years, different conditions on the market, the world economy, politics, military conflicts and money printing but the market actions are not changed.

Things might be really different from the previous years but all I know is that there's something in nature that we cannot disregard, that's volatility. Thus, things won't be hundred percent in favor with our expectations for this year's "history".

Mr Market has its rule to rise up or fall down or fluctuate. History can be repeated in price fractals but it is not necessary to be repeated to help price gets a new all time high.

You know 2013 was just like a test- run and an awareness launch, many people couldn't not even relate with it them, I know those who were participants then must be big-time officials by now, the idea people picked up from it is what many also attempted at the 2017 most doubtfully, then, it was confirmed genuine and not a Ponzi scheme as many thought. Now we are very confident. Bitcoin is getting better every moment.

Each bull run, more people will heard and read about bitcoin, new investors join and many of them will leave the market after all of their savings, money were eaten by the market, by liquidations. Wise and patient people will stay.

2013, 2017, 2020 or 2021 are milestones for bitcoin growth. This year, this May halving caught more attention because after this halving, block reward is 6.25 bitcoin per block. https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/

[Yogee]

A case can be made this time since the introduction of wrapped btc which allows holders to lend and earn something from their bitcoin holdings [DeFi]. I just don't know if the amount is significant enough to contribute to the current btc run. Maybe someone can pull up the numbers.

Wrap BTC is not bitcoin and anything happens with it can affect bitcoin reputation. I don't like it (try to connect DeFi to bitcoin to show bitcoin is decentralized) and try to connect Ethereum to DeFi by the article to predict bitcoin can rise higher).

The point is there may be some people buying bitcoin so they can have it wrapped and get rewards which could have contributed to the pump. It's possible that thousands of btc's were bought from or taken off exchanges and temporarily locked on these "interest" bearing platforms. You get what I mean?

[MusaMohamed]

The point is there may be some people buying bitcoin so they can have it wrapped and get rewards which could have contributed to the pump. It's possible that thousands of btc's were bought from or taken off exchanges and temporarily locked on these "interest" bearing platforms. You get what I mean?

It is a risk taking activity that I don't do. Take risk, and exchange a safe asset to take a risky one (lock and get a virtual number to get interest). People who love risk will like it but I don't.

Buy bitcoin, store and hold in a non-custodial wallet is safer than lock it on any platform or hedge to get interest. Use a bitcoin custodial wallet is bad. Lock your bitcoin on custodial wallet from a platform is worse.

[lepbagong]

The next bull run is in 2021, according to this logic. And how can bitcoin be compared to a bubble? This is incorrect.

That's right, friend, that the increase will be predicted to occur in the next year, if you see that now it is already in high prices, it is clear a blessing from an increase that was not previously predicted. but will it continue to increase until the end of the year? i feel like nothing will happen.