Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin has it big impacts on altcoins but the truth is many crypto investors allocate main of their capital for altcoins. Experienced and successful investors do oppositely, invest in bitcoin for most of their capital.

There is a website that gives quick views (with chart and some details) on bitcoin and altcoin season.

• Where? Blockchaincenter.net (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/)
• Information
  
  • Altcoin season
  • Altcoin month
  • Altcoin year
  • List (in grid) of altcoins perform better or worse than bitcoin

It is for reference and only give you quick overview. It is funny for the part 'Altcoin year'. I have never thought there is a year in which bitcoin performs worse than altcoins. It would be especially true if the index is calculated from top 100 altcoins, not a single altcoin.

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Ideas for developers?

• It can be expanded to a few sub-categories in crypto market. More expanded seasons as DeFi season (LOL, I did not think there will be many DeFi shit tokens can last long)

It’s entertaining to see from a curiosity point of view. Since many altcoins are easy to move into the "better than bitcoin" category with a bit of engineering, doing so over a wider array of altcoins simultaneously may not, thus the "seasons" are determined by a wide range of the top 50 coins comparted to bitcoin.

The 2 year chart view shows basically a couple of so called Altcoin seasons in 2017 (ICO hype), and a more recent one during august/September 2020, which seems to be DEFI hype driven.

Yes, it is entertaining, funny and for quick overview only.

It is the point. The site does not take into consideration some characteristics of altcoins:

• Ages: it is very important and I'd like to have a chart for old altcoins, exclude all young altcoins as DeFi-tokens in 2020.
• Marketcap: altcoins should have average to big marketcap to be included. Low-cap altcoins mean nothing.

I am waiting to see how old altcoins will break out and create a new season for altcoins in 2021. It will be a real altcoin season when old, big altcoins rock.

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In the opposite approach, it is interesting if someone can develop a prospective follow-up charts for DeFi tokens. It will record how they reached all time high (in prices, marketcaps, total locked value) and how they tails off (die) over time.

IMHO token or alts will be back when rules of issuance and legal frameworks are set. I seem to have read that the electronic issuance of stocks is going to be allowed?

However, if this happens is not going to look like the ICO fever of 2016 - 2018

As I understand, the SEC didn't go after ICOs because they are inherently illegal, they went after them because they were unregistered securities. There were ICOs that fully complied with regulations. It's still not enough for ICO hype 2.0, because scams were only half of the problem - the other half is extremely low success of ICO projects in terms of actual results. At least penny stocks and startups have a chance to become an established company and a leader in its own innovative field - ICOs just create platforms that no one uses.

Such a nice tool but do you really know from where they do take these infos? Their API is directly connected with exchangers or CMC?
It's helpful but i need an insurance first, the graphs and the % of the BTC dominance is enough for me to judge if it's the btc or the alts season, just curious to know more about their code.

this is great---very useful tool for anyone trying to stack sats in the altcoin market, which is all about timing.

i'd love to see a bit more granularity, eg "is it an altcoin week"? when alt season kicks in, it happens fast. i reckon 30-day/90-day averages might lag.

I wouldn't call them "investors", they are either gullible gambler or day traders that are increasing their bitcoin capital by going into altcoin trading.

The thing about altcoin market, even the scammiest tokens, is that they can be super profitable ONLY if you know how to ride the pumping tide AND know when to get out before the unavoidable dump begins AND are willing to take huge risks getting involved in a super manipulated market.
Otherwise looking at altcoins as "investment" will always end in loss.

Scammers try to adapt to changes of crypto market and change their technical terms to scam people. They will return with other hypes obviously.

• ICO -- IEO
• Stake/ masternode coin -- DeFi tokens, yield, farm.

They are rule-makers and rules will be changed by them. I feel SEC want to concentrate on parent cryptocurrencies first as they can break down derivatives or parasites on parent blockchains. If they break Ethereum (with any lawsuit), ERC20-tokens will be killed.

I did not look at it thoroughly.

Dominaces are biased with DeFi tokens so that these indicators don't give you good assessment nowadays.

It is possible, technically. Depends on input parameters, and your variable definitions, you can analyse it. I might (or might not) spend my time for such big analysis.

I thank you for your correction and your opinion is what I implied but your clarification makes it clearer. Lots of conditions for altcoin trades ;)

very helpful,,, even in my opinion if looking at the top 10 altcoins they are much better than the bitcoin.System management and project development that continues to be made get breakthroughs for progress
I agree with choosing altcoins as an option, but their price also depends on the movement of bitcoin itself

Thank you for the website.
At least, that can help us to analyze more to find the right coin to buy, and hopefully, we can guess with right of that coin.
So from that website, it seems, the altcoin season still not coming to us, and it could still too far to come, and we need to be more patient.
The altcoin list on that site can be a guide to analyze one by one, so I am sure that we can find one or two coins that have the possibility to increase again.
Ethereum still has the biggest chance to rise, so I stick on the ethereum as the next coins besides bitcoin.

Three weeks and altcoins have gone through their good adventure, with a rise of altcoin index from 18 to about 50 (today, I visited that site 2 times and the index fluctuates from 47 to 49).

I expect that when the index breaks through 75 points, the FOMO wave on altcoins will happen.

With altcoins, the best method is being speculators or traders. I am not a fan of altcoin as investor.

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Better than bitcoin, I disagree with you on this. Altcoins are copy cats and they usually rise in a trend: ICOs, IEOs, privacy coins, hard-forks, lightning network, DeFi.

Bitcoin movements can have effects on altcoins but when altcoins have their seasons, it mostly come from their internal trends (said above) but still need a mandatory stable price from bitcoin.

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It is not. In fact, it gives you an overview on the common trend on the market and the concentration of capital that is spent on bitcoin or altcoins.

Buy at the bottom range is better. Today, the altcoin season is clearer when their index has risen significantly and they have been warming up a lot. In contrast, bitcoin is cooling down and together they might trigger a real altcoin season.

Anyway, with any party, you don't get profit if you over-hesitate and join the party too late.

That's right, this month's altcoin journey has been incredible. Many trader get huge profits from the current state of the altcoin market. As Bitcoin is still on the sideway with 30,000 - 40,000 range, Altcoins are considered to be the solution for some people to double Bitcoin by choosing an altcoin / BTC pair. If you look at what happened to ETH, BAL, UNI, HEDGE and so on, in the last 3 weeks they have increased by more than 30% and are competing to create new ATH. Of course this condition also increased a pump & dump market.

Earn profits is difficult but keep your profits safely is more challening. In the bull market, many are genius in their own thoughts but when the market flips to serious corrections or worse the bear market, they will lose all they earn and maybe lose initial capital too.

Good traders can get more than 30% profit by buying at dips and take profits with a few rounds.

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A warning: Don't chase the market, bull or bear, don't chase it. I learned it from my experience with the market, frankly.

You are right that is what caused bitcoin to go up so high while some altcoin legends seem to die. I wonder why only the top 100 coins are the benchmark? Is there a possibility that the altcoin season will repeat 2017? For all coins it seems impossible, but I really hope it happens.

Yes, they seem to follow their mother. ETH from the lowest price after 2017 reached an increase of almost 12 times. I remember he was at the price of 83 $ in 2018. I wonder if the price of other old Altcoins can still survive, such as DGB, LBC, Stratis, and others.

@luzin it will depends on their real use case, of course some project not needed it because just for fun or joke like $MEME but, DGB stratis and other have a plans for usable coins not for just a joke, maybe this will stopping them pumping like 2017. the current alts price just following BTC prices not in pair, most of them not even double in BTC, ETH 2017 hit 0.1BTC/ETH in current market it still far away.

It does not make sense to include all altcoins on the market as the lower ranks, the lower marketcap and lower daily trading volume on the market. The top 100 altcoins are big enough to represent the altcoin space.

I don't think the 2017 altcoin season will be repeated exactly the same way. If you or else hold shit coins and now hope they will take the 2021 altcoin season to come back, flight to the moon, touch their 2017 or 2018 all time high (in BTC), please forget it. They are dead coins and rallies if happen will occur in USDT pairs, not BTC pairs.

The 2021 season will be mostly for new altcoins with convincing usecases. The time for altcoins to easily hype investors with promises, roadmap might be gone. Fortunately, such seasons will be repeated somewhat extent as the market always have new generations join. They are fresh meats for whales, sharks, and scammers.

Welcome Ethereum to its new all time high today but yeah as being said, it is new all time high in USDT, not BTC pair for Ethereum.

I really doubt it. There is nothing changed about the market and the market participants to suggest they would start looking for real altcoins with real use cases. They are the same traders, or better said gamblers, looking for quick pump and dumps to make a lot of profit by making bets on random shitcoins.
Keep in mind that 2017 shitcoin pumping season was not the first time it happened, each "season" may get bigger but the principle is the same. They create a lot of useless garbage, they pump those and the old existing garbage and others participate hoping to make profit.

Before, we'd just look at the bitcoin market dominance to determine whether it's alt season or not. I've read many people say 40% or less means it's alts season already. It would be interesting to know if that happens but only 50% of the top 50 coins outperformed BTC in 90 days. Not meeting the criteria set on the website.

You are correct. I said that such crazy altcoin season needs to have a new wave of fresh meat that is probably what the market has now and in near future. However, bigger or smaller, it will depends on how bigger or smaller the wave of capital from fresh meat. With bigger adoption and supports from media platforms, new waves to cryptocurrency might be much bigger than past waves which can help whales/ sharks/ scam developers.

However, the old shit altcoins will struggle to recover, and scam investors again. Some might get success but most won't. Investors (fresh meat) will mainly be scammed by newborn projects.

By the way, scammers of old projects that was in hypernation for months, years but now return to revise their projects. Methods can be swap: swap from old shit chain to a new shit chain. I was scammed by such in the past (I did not have much experience). In 2020, I saw some old altcoin projects announce their swap to DeFi tokens. I am sure that next 4 or 5 years they will swap to ShitFi or other else. :D

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Bitcoin dominance is biased and distorted a lot by total marketcap from DeFi tokens and non-DeFi altcoins. You can use dominance with such caution.

I wish in the future, some developers will code and release dominance indicators for altcoins with different age groups: <6 months, 6 months - <1 year, 1 - 3 year, 4+ year.

"Worse than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days)"
No wonder that Faketoshi's coin BShitV (BSV) will be on that list.

I just wondering if he did it on purpose but I think UNI (Uniswap) is listed there as UNIVERSITY, it's not of a huge deal as we all know this exchange but I think if it is then we might wanna inform the developer https://twitter.com/rohmeo_de about this. I think as well that if the conclusion of Altcoin season, month, and year refers to only the top 50 then why are there some alts not on the top 50 list on CMC (I assume this is where he base those top 50's) even if he excludes those stablecoins. I think at least he integrates some API from CMC or Coingecko that updates only the top 50 coins because there are really some coins out there that aren't near to top 50, just my two cents.

Hey, altcoins have been cooked and heated significantly in a short period. Below is the points of altcoins that shows altcoin season has yet to come. BUT 67 points mean it gradually rises and almost touches the critical threshold at 75 points.

Additionally, today, I brought the All-year chart to you. If you are astute, you will notice the visual periodic cycle for altcoins. The length between the past altcoin season and today is still less than average length between past seasons. If you naively believe in history and assume history will be repeated exactly, altcoin season need a few more time (weeks, maybe) to officially activated.

But yeah, joining the party when it is confirmed can be a trap as same as some delayed TA indicators like MACD, RSI, etc. You know what I meant.  :)

Altcoin seasons to come and the time to FOMO with altcoins is here. I am expecting some as follows

• Altcoin dominance increases more than 10% from now, up to 20%
• Bitcoin dominance decreases from 7% to 10% from now. It might bounce back first then drop more.
• If you don't know how to check those charts: Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), Altcoin dominance (OTHERS.D)
• If you notice, the altcoin season index is affected by both altcoins and bitcoin price. The net effects from bitcoin and altcoins change the index. You know what I meant

Some reminders

• Be careful if you are trading altcoins with margin (leverage) trades. Even it is the season for altcoins, there are sudden weak downs that can kill you in short period of time (seconds to minutes).
• Make sure you use stop limit orders and stop loss orders for your trades.
• In case you are currently have profits with your altcoin positions, don't forget to set Positive Stop-loss orders. Why? It help you to stop the Profit Steal.
• FOMO is for unexperience traders and if you have plans, you will make good entries (with weak downs) and get profits. You don't must to FOMO with the crowd.
• It is my own opinion  but not my financial advice for you

You can get raw data table: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/category/data/

Nice tought bro..

Playing in futures or leverage trading is not recommended for beginner, who just have a basic skills to read a candle and how to use indicator. The market is not stable right now, I'm trying to play in futures few days ago just for to test my knowledge, and I have some points maybe it will help beginner like me.
1. Tak profit ASAP don't look people who gain more than 3000% in future, if you get 50% of profits it enough for you to continue to learn. Don't be greedy
2. Don't put high leverage, I will reccommend to start with max 30%
3. Don't use instant/market price to close and entry, as tranthidung says, set stop loss and take profit feature, it will help you to get good profit and minimized loss.
4. Start with small amounts
5. If you are lost for 3 times, stop it, if you are frustased, you will be lost more money because your strategy wouldn't work. Because as beginner (including me), panic and wants to get more profit makes them trade without strategy and it will give you more bad results.
6. Start with demo if needed

Well I'm not an expert, I giving this because of my mistake as beginner in futures. you can follow this tips or not,
DYOR/DWYOR

Something interesting ... I see this resource for the first time, thanks! Below are a few similar sites in case you missed them.

• https://datamish.com/ - "collects market data from cryptocurrency exchanges and presents the data in charts"
• https://alternative.me/ - "The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies"

To be honest for me, the topic of altcoins became very painful after I sold quite a lot of BAND at $0.3 and LINK at $2.8 ... March last year, brought me huge disappointments, I still bite my elbows ...

Thank you. Interesting, I am going to look at them.

Haha. I ate my elbows in January of 2018 when XRB (Railblocks) -- that was rebranded to NANO nowadays, took its flight to over $30. I sold three hundred thousands of XRB when price is $0.1.
Nano (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nano/)
Their ANN Thread still use the old name: XRB (RailBlocks). [ANN][XRB]Cryptocurrency's killer app: RaiBlocks micropayments (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1381323.11980)

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All you gave a true and valuable warnings.

Some big mistakes that most (or all ?) traders, investors made are:

• All in like gamble with hope for big win. At the end, they get big losses
• Don't withdraw their capital after big wins. At the end, they lose both big win and capital amount.
• Use too high leverage and are too confidendent with their orders
• After losing a lot (big profit, capital) or worse in debt from loan to invest, they will lose confidence, and make more worse decisions

Haha, you're even more of a loser than I am ...  Although if you add up all my bad decisions related to cryptocurrency, then I will surely surpass you. I will not go into details, but my losses over the past 4 years amounted to about 40,000 dollars, (if we talk only about losses). Did you buy Nano during the pre-sale? XRB (RailBlocks) To be honest, I heard about this project back in 2018, but did not know that it had a different name before. Damn rebranding .. I know how you feel.

Eventually, altcoin season goes live and I hope you enjoy the rising wave of altcoins.

86 points for the index, today (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/). The season is here so the question now is how long will it last and stay with us?

In previous post, dominance of altcoins might rise up to around 10.6. The chart for dominance is raw view but if you use TA indicator, it seems the alt season is only go half of its way. I believe that we can enjoy this wave of altcoin up to next 3 or less than 4 weeks.

Bitcoin:

• In a mutual movement with altcoin dominance, bitcoin dominace has not bottomed yet.
• It already bounced back impressively days ago (hope you enjoyed that bounce too).

Sum up

• Stay strong with your altcoins, at least up to before the end of January 2021.
• It is for altcoins have not pumped so far
• To be safe, exit your positions before the end of third week in January

• I don't upload chart here as dominances don't change much since my previous update.
• Bitcoin: BTC.D, Altcoins: OTHERS.D

I think you are right about the time range of 3/4 weeks, The Fear & Greed Index is slowly but surely continuing to decline. In terms of altcoins, I think all of the top 15 coins have already peaked and need a significant correction. Those who prefer a shorts one should probably read the WP of the top coins, since if I'm not mistaken, some of them will have an increase in Circulating Supply very soon, which of course will affect the price.

BTW, the first piece of luck this year ... I managed to drop several thousand XRP at almost the max/price.

https://i.imgur.com/fqAlhVY.png

We maybe have a few more weeks with altcoin parties.

92 points for the altcoin month index (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/). It confirms the market is hyped with altcoins within past few weeks but the bigger index, Altcoin season Index is staying at 55 points and has due diligent space to rise more.

BTC.D and OTHERS.D movements support the altcoin season. The former has not bottomed and the latter has not topped up yet.

As said, enjoy the alt parties and if you are careful, exit your positions before the fourth week of February. Let's try to protect your capital and any profit you have earned with altcoins. :)

Yes, I regret that I did not heed your advice ... Since I really like to trade short, and I decided that one coin [AVAX (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/avalanche/)] had reached its peak. Who would have thought that literally in 40 days the capitalization of this shitcoin would change 20 times (from 250 million to 5 billion), and at the same time, just a week ago, the capitalization was 4 times less. As it seemed to me, I took a pretty good position and didn't even bother placing a stop loss because the liquidation price was 100% of the entry cost. In General, it was a complete failure ...

https://i.imgur.com/WNdO9ad.png

Altcoins despite of ups and downs, rocks and rolls, they have been heated up to the threshold for altcoin season, not altcoin month. Let's look at today statistics

• Altcoin Month Index: 90
• Altcoin Season Index: 63
• The trend has not yet been broken by Tesla (https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-buys-1-5-billion-in-bitcoin-11612791688) (Buys $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin) and a rise of bitcoin few days ago

Haha. Interesting. I did not said about AVAX and I am thank you you to bring it here. Let's use it as a case study for another possible scam trend in crypto. Do you guess what it is?

• Nowadays, developers and scammers try to create projects will lower and lower total supplies. They realized that the era for shitcoins with huge total supplies went a way for so long.
• It is easier to pump the price at beginning days with the 'pseudo', artificial truth about coin or token scarcity (from lower total supplies).
• It is easier to finish their works in few weeks or months with this approach, rather than launching a coin with huge total supply, hope a high price for one coin and if fails, they will burn premined, pre-minted coins later or swap with the ratio of 100:1 (old to new)
• It sounds weird but do you think in future, a shitcoin with a total supply at 10 000 coin will be created ? (might be not but let's observe the market)

If you filter with Circulating supply on coinmarketcap (the site does not allow to filter with Total supply), then sort out prices descendingly, you will see tokens or coins with low circulating supplies have joking high prices.

You can filter with circulating supply < 1 million.

You can filter total supply with Messario.io's screener and a Pro account. https://messari.io/screener

Tesla triggered another wave of bitcoin climb and I hope that you are enjoying the new all time high of bitcoin. At the same time, I hope that you exited your altcoins before bitcoin climbed days ago.

In coming four weeks, bitcoin might be pulled back and altcoin dominance will rise up more. In my forecasts, bitcoin dominance has not bottomed and altcoin dominance has not topped up yet. Changes of dominances for bitcoin, and altcoins are depended on prices of BTC, altcoins and the new altcoin projects. Old altcoins might rally and contirbute to altcoin dominance but new altcoin projects have big biassed contributions as well. You can not exclude the bias factor from new altcoins have sprung up everyday in the bull market.

Bitcoin dominance has still been unknown for its next movements: upward or downward. With some indicators (I don't show here), the bitcoin dominance might have something as follows:

• Falls deeper a little bit as the image shows
• If it happens, it will be the trigger for the next very big bull run for bitcoin dominance
• That scenario won't must happen as bitcoin dominance currently is closely to where it might bounce strongly
• As said, with bull market and the hype on altcoins, bitcoin and altcoin dominance indicators are seriously and will be more serioulsy biased by altcoins (especially new ones)
• What does it mean? If price of bitcoin has a more serious correction, it will be your very last chance to hop on and participate in the next phase of its run

tranthidung Well, when is the next update? I think it's time to make adjustments for the time, given that it is already the middle of March. And if you have time, I would like you to take a look at Obyte (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/obyte/). One of the oldest and as it seems to me respected projects that has an impressive infrastructure (infrastructure is not worse than that of EOS), although it has problems with marketing scaling. For instance: ANN has several million views including local + there is live support on the forum and a live GitHub, and with all this, the price of the coin has been stationary for several years + maximum supply, (the situation is quite interesting).

I was looking back at it, and not sure what any hope is coming, can you give me some more relevant information regarding it.

Thank you for reminding me.

Altcoins (old and new generations) are trying to break that cap since June 2017 to get their all time high (Altcoin domination - OTHERS.D). That cap was almost reached three times (April 2018, October 2020 and early of this month). If they break the cap, the new all time high for altcoin dominance is calling. Their dominance are made up of old and new altcoins. I guess many people think this alt dominance increase comes from new altcoins. They are not wrong but it is not true if forget about old altcoins.

I know it. Obyte was rebranded from Gbyte (in 2018 ?). I like that coin with DAG algorithm and its simplicity. It allows people to bet and I am surprised that gambling sites forget or ignore this coin.

Your reminder is relating to my above part and I would like to choose old altcoins to invest in this period. New altcoins are fuel for the altcoin season but they are risky and you will reduce risk whilst also have chance to earn good profits with old altcoins.

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Bitcoin

• It is on the verge of bounce back or fall deeper (look at BTC.D chart - 1week)
• Bitcoin price chart (not dominance): bigger probability for deeper falls (deeper than BTC.D).
• It is not a must but I will be very happy if Bitcoin has a last call about $40,000 before shooting off to the Moon.
• Plan B: if Bitcoin breaks the cap around $58k, it will be a time for you to hop on and enjoy its ride

I don't have mouse here (use touch pad) so I can not give you images.

Update

Thoughts?
I am keen on the scenario that price will have a fall to somewhere around $40,000. Price from $45,000 to $46,000 looks very interesting.

For lower price around $40,000 to $36,000, you have to wait for the market. If price falls to $36,000, it would be ~ 30% correction.

It don't must happen but if it happens, you should feel very happy with it. It is the last call for you to buy cheap bitcoin.

I know many people that they always wait for dips to hop on. Wait for months or years but anytime such dips occur, they were fear. Don't be them.  ;)

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Reference:

• Bitcoin Streaks (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5301867.msg56599640#msg56599640)

Last two days, Bitcoin has a big correction and I hope you enjoy it. It has yet touched $45,000 or $46,000. On Binance, the lowest price for today so far is $47,500. It is still a very discounting price and you should enjoy that price.

Thoughts?

• Enjoy the bounce
• Bitcoin might fall deeper in next 1 to 2 weeks
• Longer period: 3+ months, I expect a sideway period for bitcoin

I just remembered this thread yesterday.  8)

I am interested in your opinion on the end of the bullish season ... namely, will there be another bounce, or we will go into a deep correction. Unfortunately, I did not sell all my altcoin assets, as I got the impression that the market is still hot, (in comparison with other coins from the top 100, the capitalization of the coin of which I am talking has increased only 4 times, which is pretty small if we talk about comparison).

Altcoin season has different phases too.  ;D

• Path to altseason (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5335516.0)
• Let's me take that infographic, that is take from Great Arkansas' topic, to simplify this post.
• A quote of my post is used to explain my opinion because I see it is unnecessary to rewrite it.