Bitcoin, altcoin season index

[rhomelmabini]

"Worse than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days)"
No wonder that Faketoshi's coin BShitV (BSV) will be on that list.

I just wondering if he did it on purpose but I think UNI (Uniswap) is listed there as UNIVERSITY, it's not of a huge deal as we all know this exchange but I think if it is then we might wanna inform the developer https://twitter.com/rohmeo_de about this. I think as well that if the conclusion of Altcoin season, month, and year refers to only the top 50 then why are there some alts not on the top 50 list on CMC (I assume this is where he base those top 50's) even if he excludes those stablecoins. I think at least he integrates some API from CMC or Coingecko that updates only the top 50 coins because there are really some coins out there that aren't near to top 50, just my two cents.

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[tranthidung]

Hey, altcoins have been cooked and heated significantly in a short period. Below is the points of altcoins that shows altcoin season has yet to come. BUT 67 points mean it gradually rises and almost touches the critical threshold at 75 points.

Additionally, today, I brought the All-year chart to you. If you are astute, you will notice the visual periodic cycle for altcoins. The length between the past altcoin season and today is still less than average length between past seasons. If you naively believe in history and assume history will be repeated exactly, altcoin season need a few more time (weeks, maybe) to officially activated.

But yeah, joining the party when it is confirmed can be a trap as same as some delayed TA indicators like MACD, RSI, etc. You know what I meant.  

[tranthidung]

Altcoin seasons to come and the time to FOMO with altcoins is here. I am expecting some as follows

• Altcoin dominance increases more than 10% from now, up to 20%
• Bitcoin dominance decreases from 7% to 10% from now. It might bounce back first then drop more.
• If you don't know how to check those charts: Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), Altcoin dominance (OTHERS.D)
• If you notice, the altcoin season index is affected by both altcoins and bitcoin price. The net effects from bitcoin and altcoins change the index. You know what I meant

Some reminders

• Be careful if you are trading altcoins with margin (leverage) trades. Even it is the season for altcoins, there are sudden weak downs that can kill you in short period of time (seconds to minutes).
• Make sure you use stop limit orders and stop loss orders for your trades.
• In case you are currently have profits with your altcoin positions, don't forget to set Positive Stop-loss orders. Why? It help you to stop the Profit Steal.
• FOMO is for unexperience traders and if you have plans, you will make good entries (with weak downs) and get profits. You don't must to FOMO with the crowd.
• It is my own opinion  but not my financial advice for you

You can get raw data table: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/category/data/

[masulum]

Nice tought bro..

Playing in futures or leverage trading is not recommended for beginner, who just have a basic skills to read a candle and how to use indicator. The market is not stable right now, I'm trying to play in futures few days ago just for to test my knowledge, and I have some points maybe it will help beginner like me.
1. Tak profit ASAP don't look people who gain more than 3000% in future, if you get 50% of profits it enough for you to continue to learn. Don't be greedy
2. Don't put high leverage, I will reccommend to start with max 30%
3. Don't use instant/market price to close and entry, as tranthidung says, set stop loss and take profit feature, it will help you to get good profit and minimized loss.
4. Start with small amounts
5. If you are lost for 3 times, stop it, if you are frustased, you will be lost more money because your strategy wouldn't work. Because as beginner (including me), panic and wants to get more profit makes them trade without strategy and it will give you more bad results.
6. Start with demo if needed

Well I'm not an expert, I giving this because of my mistake as beginner in futures. you can follow this tips or not,
DYOR/DWYOR

[icopress]

Altcoin seasons to come and the time to FOMO with altcoins is here.

There is a website that gives quick views (with chart and some details) on bitcoin and altcoin season.

Something interesting ... I see this resource for the first time, thanks! Below are a few similar sites in case you missed them.

• https://datamish.com/ - "collects market data from cryptocurrency exchanges and presents the data in charts"
• https://alternative.me/ - "The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies"

To be honest for me, the topic of altcoins became very painful after I sold quite a lot of BAND at $0.3 and LINK at $2.8 ... March last year, brought me huge disappointments, I still bite my elbows ...

[tranthidung]

Something interesting ... I see this resource for the first time, thanks! Below are a few similar sites in case you missed them.

• https://datamish.com/ - "collects market data from cryptocurrency exchanges and presents the data in charts"
• https://alternative.me/ - "The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies"

Thank you. Interesting, I am going to look at them.

To be honest for me, the topic of altcoins became very painful after I sold quite a lot of BAND at $0.3 and LINK at $2.8 ... March last year, brought me huge disappointments, I still bite my elbows ...

Haha. I ate my elbows in January of 2018 when XRB (Railblocks) -- that was rebranded to NANO nowadays, took its flight to over $30. I sold three hundred thousands of XRB when price is $0.1.
Nano
Their ANN Thread still use the old name: XRB (RailBlocks). [ANN][XRB]Cryptocurrency's killer app: RaiBlocks micropayments

1. Tak profit ASAP don't look people who gain more than 3000% in future, if you get 50% of profits it enough for you to continue to learn. Don't be greedy
2. Don't put high leverage, I will reccommend to start with max 30%
3. Don't use instant/market price to close and entry, as tranthidung says, set stop loss and take profit feature, it will help you to get good profit and minimized loss.
4. Start with small amounts
5. If you are lost for 3 times, stop it, if you are frustased, you will be lost more money because your strategy wouldn't work. Because as beginner (including me), panic and wants to get more profit makes them trade without strategy and it will give you more bad results.
6. Start with demo if needed

All you gave a true and valuable warnings.

Some big mistakes that most (or all ?) traders, investors made are:

• All in like gamble with hope for big win. At the end, they get big losses
• Don't withdraw their capital after big wins. At the end, they lose both big win and capital amount.
• Use too high leverage and are too confidendent with their orders
• After losing a lot (big profit, capital) or worse in debt from loan to invest, they will lose confidence, and make more worse decisions

[icopress]

Haha. I ate my elbows in January of 2018 when XRB (Railblocks) -- that was rebranded to NANO nowadays, took its flight to over $30. I sold three hundred thousands of XRB when price is $0.1.

Haha, you're even more of a loser than I am ...  Although if you add up all my bad decisions related to cryptocurrency, then I will surely surpass you. I will not go into details, but my losses over the past 4 years amounted to about 40,000 dollars, (if we talk only about losses). Did you buy Nano during the pre-sale? XRB (RailBlocks) To be honest, I heard about this project back in 2018, but did not know that it had a different name before. Damn rebranding .. I know how you feel.

[tranthidung]

Eventually, altcoin season goes live and I hope you enjoy the rising wave of altcoins.

86 points for the index, today. The season is here so the question now is how long will it last and stay with us?

In previous post, dominance of altcoins might rise up to around 10.6. The chart for dominance is raw view but if you use TA indicator, it seems the alt season is only go half of its way. I believe that we can enjoy this wave of altcoin up to next 3 or less than 4 weeks.

Bitcoin:

• In a mutual movement with altcoin dominance, bitcoin dominace has not bottomed yet.
• It already bounced back impressively days ago (hope you enjoyed that bounce too).

Sum up

• Stay strong with your altcoins, at least up to before the end of January 2021.
• It is for altcoins have not pumped so far
• To be safe, exit your positions before the end of third week in January

• I don't upload chart here as dominances don't change much since my previous update.
• Bitcoin: BTC.D, Altcoins: OTHERS.D

[icopress]

86 points for the index, today. The season is here so the question now is how long will it last and stay with us?

I think you are right about the time range of 3/4 weeks, The Fear & Greed Index is slowly but surely continuing to decline. In terms of altcoins, I think all of the top 15 coins have already peaked and need a significant correction. Those who prefer a shorts one should probably read the WP of the top coins, since if I'm not mistaken, some of them will have an increase in Circulating Supply very soon, which of course will affect the price.

BTW, the first piece of luck this year ... I managed to drop several thousand XRP at almost the max/price.

Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.

[tranthidung]

We maybe have a few more weeks with altcoin parties.

92 points for the altcoin month index. It confirms the market is hyped with altcoins within past few weeks but the bigger index, Altcoin season Index is staying at 55 points and has due diligent space to rise more.

BTC.D and OTHERS.D movements support the altcoin season. The former has not bottomed and the latter has not topped up yet.

As said, enjoy the alt parties and if you are careful, exit your positions before the fourth week of February. Let's try to protect your capital and any profit you have earned with altcoins.

[icopress]

As said, enjoy the alt parties and if you are careful, exit your positions before the fourth week of February. Let's try to protect your capital and any profit you have earned with altcoins.

Yes, I regret that I did not heed your advice ... Since I really like to trade short, and I decided that one coin [AVAX] had reached its peak. Who would have thought that literally in 40 days the capitalization of this shitcoin would change 20 times (from 250 million to 5 billion), and at the same time, just a week ago, the capitalization was 4 times less. As it seemed to me, I took a pretty good position and didn't even bother placing a stop loss because the liquidation price was 100% of the entry cost. In General, it was a complete failure ...

[tranthidung]

92 points for the altcoin month index. It confirms the market is hyped with altcoins within past few weeks but the bigger index, Altcoin season Index is staying at 55 points and has due diligent space to rise more.

Altcoins despite of ups and downs, rocks and rolls, they have been heated up to the threshold for altcoin season, not altcoin month. Let's look at today statistics

• Altcoin Month Index: 90
• Altcoin Season Index: 63
• The trend has not yet been broken by Tesla (Buys $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin) and a rise of bitcoin few days ago

As said, enjoy the alt parties and if you are careful, exit your positions before the fourth week of February. Let's try to protect your capital and any profit you have earned with altcoins.

Yes, I regret that I did not heed your advice ... Since I really like to trade short, and I decided that one coin [AVAX] had reached its peak. Who would have thought that literally in 40 days the capitalization of this shitcoin would change 20 times (from 250 million to 5 billion), and at the same time, just a week ago, the capitalization was 4 times less. As it seemed to me, I took a pretty good position and didn't even bother placing a stop loss because the liquidation price was 100% of the entry cost. In General, it was a complete failure ...

Haha. Interesting. I did not said about AVAX and I am thank you you to bring it here. Let's use it as a case study for another possible scam trend in crypto. Do you guess what it is?

• Nowadays, developers and scammers try to create projects will lower and lower total supplies. They realized that the era for shitcoins with huge total supplies went a way for so long.
• It is easier to pump the price at beginning days with the 'pseudo', artificial truth about coin or token scarcity (from lower total supplies).
• It is easier to finish their works in few weeks or months with this approach, rather than launching a coin with huge total supply, hope a high price for one coin and if fails, they will burn premined, pre-minted coins later or swap with the ratio of 100:1 (old to new)
• It sounds weird but do you think in future, a shitcoin with a total supply at 10 000 coin will be created ? (might be not but let's observe the market)

If you filter with Circulating supply on coinmarketcap (the site does not allow to filter with Total supply), then sort out prices descendingly, you will see tokens or coins with low circulating supplies have joking high prices.

You can filter with circulating supply < 1 million.

You can filter total supply with Messario.io's screener and a Pro account. https://messari.io/screener

[tranthidung]

• To be safe, exit your positions before the end of third week in January

Tesla triggered another wave of bitcoin climb and I hope that you are enjoying the new all time high of bitcoin. At the same time, I hope that you exited your altcoins before bitcoin climbed days ago.

In coming four weeks, bitcoin might be pulled back and altcoin dominance will rise up more. In my forecasts, bitcoin dominance has not bottomed and altcoin dominance has not topped up yet. Changes of dominances for bitcoin, and altcoins are depended on prices of BTC, altcoins and the new altcoin projects. Old altcoins might rally and contirbute to altcoin dominance but new altcoin projects have big biassed contributions as well. You can not exclude the bias factor from new altcoins have sprung up everyday in the bull market.

[tranthidung]

Bitcoin dominance has still been unknown for its next movements: upward or downward. With some indicators (I don't show here), the bitcoin dominance might have something as follows:

• Falls deeper a little bit as the image shows
• If it happens, it will be the trigger for the next very big bull run for bitcoin dominance
• That scenario won't must happen as bitcoin dominance currently is closely to where it might bounce strongly
• As said, with bull market and the hype on altcoins, bitcoin and altcoin dominance indicators are seriously and will be more serioulsy biased by altcoins (especially new ones)
• What does it mean? If price of bitcoin has a more serious correction, it will be your very last chance to hop on and participate in the next phase of its run

[icopress]

tranthidung Well, when is the next update? I think it's time to make adjustments for the time, given that it is already the middle of March. And if you have time, I would like you to take a look at Obyte. One of the oldest and as it seems to me respected projects that has an impressive infrastructure (infrastructure is not worse than that of EOS), although it has problems with marketing scaling. For instance: ANN has several million views including local + there is live support on the forum and a live GitHub, and with all this, the price of the coin has been stationary for several years + maximum supply, (the situation is quite interesting).

[bayudndy]

tranthidung Well, when is the next update? I think it's time to make adjustments for the time, given that it is already the middle of March. And if you have time, I would like you to take a look at Obyte. One of the oldest and as it seems to me respected projects that has an impressive infrastructure (infrastructure is not worse than that of EOS), although it has problems with marketing scaling. For instance: ANN has several million views including local + there is live support on the forum and a live GitHub, and with all this, the price of the coin has been stationary for several years + maximum supply, (the situation is quite interesting).

I was looking back at it, and not sure what any hope is coming, can you give me some more relevant information regarding it.

[tranthidung]

Well, when is the next update? I think it's time to make adjustments for the time, given that it is already the middle of March.

Thank you for reminding me.

Altcoins (old and new generations) are trying to break that cap since June 2017 to get their all time high (Altcoin domination - OTHERS.D). That cap was almost reached three times (April 2018, October 2020 and early of this month). If they break the cap, the new all time high for altcoin dominance is calling. Their dominance are made up of old and new altcoins. I guess many people think this alt dominance increase comes from new altcoins. They are not wrong but it is not true if forget about old altcoins.

And if you have time, I would like you to take a look at Obyte.

I know it. Obyte was rebranded from Gbyte (in 2018 ?). I like that coin with DAG algorithm and its simplicity. It allows people to bet and I am surprised that gambling sites forget or ignore this coin.

Your reminder is relating to my above part and I would like to choose old altcoins to invest in this period. New altcoins are fuel for the altcoin season but they are risky and you will reduce risk whilst also have chance to earn good profits with old altcoins.

Bitcoin

• It is on the verge of bounce back or fall deeper (look at BTC.D chart - 1week)
• Bitcoin price chart (not dominance): bigger probability for deeper falls (deeper than BTC.D).
• It is not a must but I will be very happy if Bitcoin has a last call about $40,000 before shooting off to the Moon.
• Plan B: if Bitcoin breaks the cap around $58k, it will be a time for you to hop on and enjoy its ride

I don't have mouse here (use touch pad) so I can not give you images.

[tranthidung]

Bitcoin

• It is not a must but I will be very happy if Bitcoin has a last call about $40,000 before shooting off to the Moon.

Update

Thoughts?
I am keen on the scenario that price will have a fall to somewhere around $40,000. Price from $45,000 to $46,000 looks very interesting.

For lower price around $40,000 to $36,000, you have to wait for the market. If price falls to $36,000, it would be ~ 30% correction.

It don't must happen but if it happens, you should feel very happy with it. It is the last call for you to buy cheap bitcoin.

I know many people that they always wait for dips to hop on. Wait for months or years but anytime such dips occur, they were fear. Don't be them.  

Reference:

• Bitcoin Streaks

[tranthidung]

Thoughts?
I am keen on the scenario that price will have a fall to somewhere around $40,000. Price from $45,000 to $46,000 looks very interesting.

Last two days, Bitcoin has a big correction and I hope you enjoy it. It has yet touched $45,000 or $46,000. On Binance, the lowest price for today so far is $47,500. It is still a very discounting price and you should enjoy that price.

Thoughts?

• Enjoy the bounce
• Bitcoin might fall deeper in next 1 to 2 weeks
• Longer period: 3+ months, I expect a sideway period for bitcoin

[icopress]

I just remembered this thread yesterday. 

I am interested in your opinion on the end of the bullish season ... namely, will there be another bounce, or we will go into a deep correction. Unfortunately, I did not sell all my altcoin assets, as I got the impression that the market is still hot, (in comparison with other coins from the top 100, the capitalization of the coin of which I am talking has increased only 4 times, which is pretty small if we talk about comparison).