Bitcoin Forum

An article I posted on Medium.

The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin
https://nicholasbridgewater.medium.com/the-case-for-a-10-000-000-bitcoin-92a889a17ba6

Best regards,

NJ_B

this is a joke?
I read this article and I think it is completely irrational and only the author wanted to design the idea and I respectfully reject this article and your post.

Hal Finney said this could happen in theory I really don't find it a joke.

Year 2009: Is $50K for a BTC a joke? Good joke yeah!

Nice article OP. I don’t think $10,000,000 per BTC is impossible at all. It won’t be in this cycle but in the next 10 years, sure. Never sell all your BTC, there is no asset like it. Even 1BTC can make you very wealthy in the next 10 years or so.

I see no jokes on the article and in my opinion, it was a well read. Why do you believe that the $10M are impossible? Going from $5 to $1000 is the same thing with $50k and $10M. Would you ever believe that a bitcoin you had bought for $5 would cost 200 times more after 5 years? Sure, it most likely won't be 5 years, but it may be on 2030, 2035, 2040. One thing is certain, the dollar inflates.

That's a long and well-written article, strongly supported by sources and providing lots of background.
However, I want to address some points. For one, you're saying that Bitcoin's a singularity, the "ark of salvation". There are also other cryptocurrencies, so they might take up some of the wealth moved from other assets. Bitcoin is not the rise, but it's not the only crypto experiencing an upward trend. Ethereum almost trippled in price over the last 3 months, for instance.
I also don't think that Bitcoin will reach even $200k within the current bull run. Honestly, even the current price seems incredibly high to me.
And with Bitcoin fees spiking higher, more people will probably move to other top cryptos, so Bitcoin won't rise as high as $10 million because it won't be the only one rising.

You clearly didn't read the article. Try again.

Thanks for your comments.


For now, many cryptocurrencies are part of the same rise in asset values. But that's because of VERY different use cases. So far, only Bitcoin can show itself to be hard money and a true store of value. As such, it is now being adopted by institutions, whereas ETH really isn't. ETH blew up last time in the ICO bubble, and now in the DeFi bubble, but it's not going to pivot to become digital gold 2.0. 


Time will tell.


I don't see fees as an issue at all. It costs a LOT more to move gold from one vault to another than it does to move BTC in one transaction. Think of Bitcoin as a settlement layer for the entire planet, much as gold used to be. Millions of transactiosn can be settled in one BTC transaction so fees are not an issue. The Lightning Network largely solves this as well. But your statement that "it won't be the only one rising" ignores the use case of Bitcoin and its monetary qualities. One money tends to win--it's a winner-takes-all scenario, just as the entire monetary system at the moment is based on one fiat currency, the USD, and in the 19th century, it was based on the gold standard and, before, bimetallism and silver/gold.

We do not want the price of BTC to go to $10,000,000 in this era.  Possibly some day in a later era when the subsidy is much lower, but not now.

Here is why:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg56375694#msg56375694


Now, of course, Bitcoin would never actually consume that much power since mining equipment would not be able to be produced fast enough and the price of electricity would go up to compensate.  But it would be catastrophic if the price were to actually go up that much in a short period of time.

To be clear, your article assumes that Bitcoin's market cap (about 210 trillion after all BTC has been distributed, or lower if you account for lost coins) will become about the same as all money that exists in the whole world including savings (excluding dividends).  That would require the total collapse of all forms of fiat money and of all other cryptocurrencies.  Are you really saying that's a reasonable scenario to expect for a currency currently handling only a few hundred thousand transactions per day and using up vast quantities of electricity in the process?

These are the articles I love to read, well-thought, backed by data and knowledge and able to connect the dots. We would need more thorough discussions on topics like these instead of hving countless useless threads on when moon, why dump, is bitcoin worth buying at 50k and so on.
Great article, thanks for sharing! Pericles' words are some masterpiece  ;)

At the current price, it does look impossible.  Why not aim for $100k  first before anything more than that.  Even a million-dollar BTC is far from sight let alone 10 million.




The article is well thought.  But somehow I feel like there are exaggerations in the context just to prove his point.  Also, there are lots of possible hiccups that were not stated there.  The article focuses solely on BTC using theories that support the writer's claim, neglecting hindrances and other crypto competitors that can eat a huge percentage of Bitcoins possible market.  With that missing, the story more likely becomes fantasy/fiction than a possible future reality.



And check how the increased price percentage of Bitcoin decreases over the course of time. The difficulty of an increase from $5 to $1000 is not the same as $50k to $10m  since it needs more financial sources than a $5 to $1000 increase.  Like you can find it easier to double your $1 than doubling your $1000.  It is like a comparison of feeding a family of 2 against a family of 200.  Adoption sure will increase but competition will sure eat most of the possible market of BTC along the way.  not saying the possibility of another cryptocurrency to overrun BTC's dominance.

The article just repeats what other people have written elsewhere. It does not add anything new. Most of the article is fluff. The meat of the article justifying the $10 million price is based on flawed assumptions, misconceptions, and ignorance of basic economics.


The halving does not cause a "supply shock". The production is cut in half but the supply continues to increase every 10 minutes.


Contrary to popular belief there is no four-year cycle and there is no correlation between halvings and price increases. Those that make these claims are cherry-picking the data. They ignore the bull runs in 2011 and 2019, and the fact that there were two bull runs in 2013.


Hal Finney was mistaken. There is no reason to compare total worldwide household wealth to the market cap of bitcoin. Doing that would imply that everything we own is replaced by bitcoins.

This is anything but a joke.

The price of bitcoin is set at the margin, so it isn't as if every bitcoin needs to be purchased at 600k or 10,000k.  Certainly not every coin is for sale.   If there are 500,000 coins for sale between here and 10,000k you you don't need that much demand to propel it that high.  Say the average price per bitcoin between here and 10,000k is $600,000, that would be "only" $300 Billion in additional investments.  If 1 million coins were for sale, it would double.  If 6 million coins were for sale and the average was still $600,000, it would be $3 trillion in new investment, but nowhere near $10,000,000 * $20,000,000.

Back at $1 people were saying $100 or $1000, let alone $50k was impossible - not everyone of course. 

So is it possible?  Definitely, it just depends on supply at each point and demand at each point.  If everyone with bitcoin refused to sell below $10,000,000, the price would go there since people might want to own 0.00000001 or whatever.

Is it likely?  That's another question. 
Is it likely any time soon?  That too is another question.

i hope it is true because i bought bitcoin at $520000 >:(

That price is impossible nowadays but as other said, in the future is not impossible. Just look at the price pumps that happened in the last weeks and in the past months. It will still happen in the future that is why it is better for people to hold their bitcoins.


Maybe at $52K and not in $520K, we're still not there. Just wait my friend, you'll have your profit in no time.

ooh of course it was 52k and not 520k. Thanks for your information

Let me quote:


This paradigm alone will let bitcoin's price go to the moon in the future.

And I think year 2028-2032, when almost all bitcoin have been mined, we will see what the price of bitcoin and there could be argument that we might see $1 million or more. At least we can see and live around that time to fully gauge the impact of bitcoin can bring to the world.

Exactly! If bitcoin continues to exist in say 10 years it will shoot up since you can no longer mine new coins but only handle transactions which will be interesting to see how miners use the extra hash power they use to use to mine. I would rather use crypto. Fiat just inflates and you can buy less and less with the same amount and guess what? Your salary doesn't go up along with it. Not the life I want. Crypto is the way to go.

They will mine for the fees, which will take the place of the subsidy.

This is what makes it interesting from Bitcoin, because the Bitcoin price is proven to continue to rise. even when Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin,
he wouldn't have expected it to reach $ 58k. I too, when Bitcoin dumped in 2018, did not expect the price of Bitcoin to recover and reach the high
price it is now. From my experience in the crypto world for 5 years, I have learned a lot that the price of Bitcoin cannot be stopped. So if anyone
predicts a price tag of $ 10 M, I wouldn't find it a joke. Because it could be true.

Absolutely, nothing is impossible in bitcoin when we believe in it no matter how long it takes.

Bitcoin will never fail us that's why as soon as possible, just hold your coins when you see a sudden increase in its price because that might help you have a much higher profit compared to the price where you sell it immediately. Don't do anything that you will regret afterwards so think before you act.

$10,000,000 seems impossible, but right now, this is a proof that bitcoin can reach different ATH and make history after 10 to 20 years.

Just hold it. Though it has a huge retrace and dump huge from 57k usd down to 47k usd but there has a great chance that bitcoin is still gaining its strength to go bullish again.

And about that 10,000,000 worth of bitcoin. The thing is, it is possible if we will see it in the future like few decades from now. As you can see we are struggling for $50k steady or upwars price and yet we aren't at $100k yet. But since bitcoin just came from cents to dollar to thousands of dollars, in the future we will look forward that it hit $100k to $500k but I couldn't picture yet thar $10,000,000.

A 10 million Bitcoin can be impossible viewing like it is right at this moment. Now, as to the future nobody can tell what can be. Maybe 20 years or 30 years from now when things are really so different we can be able to see BTC rising to as high as 10 million. However, judging based on other factors, I am not more inclined to think about this possibility, in case it can happen well and good, but I am not expecting it- in the first place I don't have a lot of Bitcoin stashed somewhere. Now, when this can happen we can then go back to that article and either laugh or cry.

Not impossible but it is a difficult endeavor to be achieved. We haven't even reach the current dream of 100k USD per bitcoin so I don't think that we have to dwell on that. 10 years is a long time and hopefully we can realize that price or at the least reach a tenth of the 10m USD per bitcoin.

OP, that was a "Wall" of text and in my opinion a bit overkill.... most people have a very short attention span and they are also lazy readers.. so the majority of the people will never read through the whole thing. (My suggestion will be for you to digest the same thing into something that would fit 1 page with several short paragraphs)  ;)

I also think, linking Bitcoin to a fiat currency value (US Dollar) might hide the fact that the Fiat currency might get over inflated with a huge crisis and hyper inflation will validate the claim that 1 Bitcoin might be worth $10 000 000 ...but what if that dollar is worth almost nothing. (Example : Zimbabwean Dollars)  ;)

Inflation and hyperinflation have to be brought into this whole equation... if you want to make wild predictions like this.  ;)

Well, $10m per Bitcoin looks insane to me. It's not impossible, but certainly won't happen overnight. This could take years, if not, many decades before it becomes a reality. Maybe this will become a reality after all Bitcoins are mined by 2100? For what I know, everything is just pure speculation. I'm sure that many early adopters like you and me will become filthy rich once BTC hits $10m.

Regardless of Bitcoin's price in the future, there's no denying that 1 Bitcoin will always be equal to 1 Bitcoin. Measuring Bitcoin's value in terms of Fiat, greatly defeats its purpose. If people used Bitcoin directly for payments without focusing on its price relative to Fiat, things would've been much better. But I guess that greed comes first, as people only come to Bitcoin if it's valuable in terms of Fiat. By all means, no one knows what Bitcoin's true price is. All we can do is speculate. Just my opinion :)