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Title: Equivalent Network Time Post by: fillippone on April 16, 2021, 11:02:54 PM I found on a Telegram chat a reference to a very interesting Reddit post:
Quote People talk often about having some percentage of the total bitcoin supply, such as 21 BTC being 1 millionth of the total supply, but I want to promote a different way of viewing amounts of Bitcoin. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/mnh5qa/a_different_way_to_view_your_bitcoin_balance/Time is money is an old adage that is covered quite thoroughly in The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous. He posits that the only truly scare resource (prior to Bitcoin) was human time. Now we can add Bitcoin to that short list of scarce resources, but perhaps we also need to add Bitcoin blockchain network time. When the Bitcoin network was young there was very little value in bitcoins and they flowed freely, being given away up to 5 at a time from faucets and being offered for sale at 10,000 for $50 without any buyers coming forward, 10,000 BTC for a couple of supreme pizzas. In that epoch the block subsidy was 50 BTC every 10 minutes. We can consider 10 minutes of Bitcoin network time to have been worth about 50 bitcoins in the period prior to the first halving. Now that we’ve had three halvings the block subsidy is only 6.25 BTC every 10 minutes. Transaction fees are added to the block subsidy, but transaction fees usually total between 0.5-1.1 BTC at this time. As time is a scarce resource both for humans and the Bitcoin blockchain, I have stopped thinking in terms of total supply and started thinking about my Bitcoin balance as a claim on ownership of blockchain time. If someone had 50 BTC from the first epoch that would have represented 10 minutes of network time, but that same 50 BTC now represents 80 minutes of network time on the most powerful computer network in the world. After the next halving, it will be 160 minutes, then 320, 640, 1280, etc. In the last epoch in which there is a block subsidy (about 2136-2140 Anno Domini) only 0.00216 BTC will be created in the entire 4 year period. If you own ~0.002 BTC you own the entire network production for that 4 year period. Before anyone mentions it, yes, I realize that long before that epoch the network will be incentivized far more by transaction fees than block subsidies. In fact, the change from block subsidy to transaction fees as the main source of network funding will occur no later than 2032 when the average transaction fees will outpace the block subsidy, which will drop to 0.78125 BTC. I am posting this to give people hope who are feeling left behind because a whole coin is out of reach for so many. Maybe you’ll never get to a whole coin, but can you get to 0.05? Because that is more than the block subsidy will be between 2048 and 2052. If you have 0.05 you own 10 minutes of the Bitcoin's network time in 2048. Stop thinking in percentages of the total supply, and think about building your claim on the network’s time. It’s a happier thought, provides more achievable goals, and it’s cool to think about having control over the time of a network as dispersed, diverse, and decentralized as Bitcoin. Block subsidy schedule through 2052: 2009-2012: 50 2012-2016: 25 2016-2020: 12.5 2020-2024: 6.25 2024-2028: 3.125 2028-2032: 1.5625 2032-2036: 0.78125 2036-2040: 0.390625 2040-2044: 0.1953125 2044-2048: 0.09765625 2048-2052: 0.04882813 Wow, it is a very interesting concept. Everyone has in his own mind a vague representation of the bitcoin issuance curve. Namely, some graph like this one: https://en.bitcoin.it/w/images/en/4/42/Controlled_supply-supply_over_block_height.png (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply) https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply But what does it really means? I did a quick Excel, as usual trying to figure it out. I came with my own version of many spreadsheets available over the net: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob6220db76ab76e328.png We see that the rhythm of BTC issuance decreases a lot. But our brain is not wired to understand exponential numbers (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5147514), so I tried to answer this question: "How long does it takes to mine a Bitcoin?" On the first Epoch, 50 Bitcoin were mined every 10 minutes (average, protocol standard). So I computed every Bitcoin had a network Time of 10 minutes/50= (10*60)/50 sec. = 600/50 sec.= 12 sec. Obviously, in the second Epoch, the reward was halved, so each bitcoin had double the network time or 24 seconds. So I call "network time" the amount of time needed by the network to "generate" that amount of Bitcoins. Let's see how network times evolve across the various epochs: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob4610d5561f7c7884.png Now we start to understand. We see how fast the BTC creation fall. Only in the first 6 Epoch, there will be more than 1 bitcoin per block. Only in the first 24 Epoch, there will be more than 1 bitcoin per Epoch. After the year 2102, there will be less than one bitcoin mined. Of course, the network time is "theoretical" after Epoch 24. If a Bitcoin takes more than an Epoch to be mined, then it will actually take longer as it will be mined at a slower and slower speed going on with the epoch. This is why, after Epoch 24 the Network time don't match the actual bitcoin issuance. So we can try to equate the amount of time needed to generate one Bitcoin, using Equivalent Times, or Network Times * BTC amounts. So 50 original Bitcoin in Epoch 0 is equal to 10 minutes of Network time. Today those are equivalent to 6.25 BTC or the same 10 minutes of network times. We can also move Backwards in time: 1 Bitcoin today is equivalent to 1 minute and 36 seconds of network time. That bitcoin in January 2010, in Epoch 1, was equivalent to 8 Bitcoins, or the same 1 minute and 36 seconds of network time. So I added a calculator on the spreadsheet, where you can play with those equivalences, to see how lucky you are to live in these incredible times. https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob6fa05e981a906b3a.png Link to Excel. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19S2YJkz9cMSECs5dZCJoKogg1gU1BtuSfr7PPAFjtq0/edit?usp=sharing) Have fun. Please let me know your feedback. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: Charles-Tim on April 16, 2021, 11:34:19 PM I do have it in mind before that bitcoin is a scarce resources, I remember an article about the CEO of microstrategy trying to let people to know that may assets people are thinking are scarce are not actually scarces like the way people think, they are just better than fiat. One of the reasons these assets are not that scarce is because they are continuously being mined, a limited supply is what they could not support.
But when comes digital currencies, bitcoin was specifically designed to be scarce, it has a limited total supply that will be in circulation which is 21 million. But, not only that, bitcoin was truly designed in a way to have an algorithm miners uses to have each blocked mined in 10 minutes in average, halving mining reward every 210,000 blocks. Al these makes bitcoin to have value, and to be an appreciative asset. With what you write up there, it is really meaningful, you really defines the true design of bitcoin, why it should be valuable. Some people can think the price is now $60000, it may not rise again, but if they read what your posted very well, they will be convinced to know that the price of bitcoin can fall today, rise tomorrow, fall again, but the overall result will be the appraciative aspect of it, which means bitcoin value to increase over a long time period. As what (bitcoin) being mined is reducing at each halving (every 210,000 blocks mined), mining reward is reducing. This is an indication that bitcoin will be more valuable in the future. The bitcoin amount we think is not having value now will have more value in the future. In conclusion, bitcoin is an appreciative asset that have limited supply that makes it more valuable. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: Upgrade00 on April 17, 2021, 01:43:21 AM I usually hear people say they regret not getting into Bitcoin earlier and how they should have paid more attention to it when they first heard about it then or five years ago; but in reality, anyone who is aware of Bitcoin now is still a very early adopter, and ten or five years from today, anyone who buys Bitcoin now would be most likely significantly up on their investment.
Bitcoin's scarcity model is one of the most important qualities of the network.it not only increases the value of the asset, but allows it to grow without becoming inflationary, as the shortage in supply compensated the equivalent increase in first value. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: BlackHatCoiner on April 17, 2021, 05:49:21 AM I like thinking Bitcoin as a mountain with 21 million tons of gold that as you dig you will find less and less. And I do, because this way, we can state that we have all the bitcoins inside that mountain, they just haven't been mined/shared yet. And it gets better!
If you spend x energy for gold mining you'd mine y amount of gold. The geniusness of Bitcoin dismisses that fact. There is no x! It doesn't matter how many hard-workers (referring to computers) work on extracting bitcoins from the "mountain". Whether the world used a 0.6% of the global electricity consumption or some tiny little CPUs, we'd have extracted the same coins. This makes it even more valuable and environmental-friendlier. Any government can forbid mining with ASICs, but these valuable and intangible coins will continue being extracted from that mountain, no matter what. So, what's more environmentally damaging after all Mr. Schiff? :-* Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: Poker Player on April 17, 2021, 06:33:52 AM Just yesterday I saw this video of a Poker player I follow:
Alec Torelli: The Future of Money: Ep.1 - What is Money? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZrOR6hroXA) Which is somehow related to this. He was commenting that money is closely related to time, because it takes us x hours of work to earn x money. And at the end of the video he pointed out that the best form of money would be the one that best represents time: our time is limited, so the best currency would be a limited one and not like worthless fiat which is potentially unlimited. The vision of owning bitcoin representing network time is very interesting. I think we could establish an equivalence with a new way of thinking, like: if you own 1 Bitcoin today (2021) you own x network time which is equivalent to x working hours of someone who earns the median salary in x country (normally for international statistics the USA is used as a reference, like to calculate the number of millionaires in the world, where the dollar is used as a reference, but it could be applied to any country). Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: amishmanish on April 17, 2021, 06:57:46 AM Interesting academic exercise but I disagree with the premise of the Reddit post which tells people to:
Quote Stop thinking in percentages of the total supply, and think about building your claim on the network’s time. Happy thoughts about having a significant percentage of the network time does not equate to having the wealth that early adopters have made and continue to make. In my mind, this pushes the same narrative that the wealthy elite have pushed upon the middle classes throughout the last century of wage-slavery. "If you work hard enough, you will have a good job, a suburban home and can retire decently".What people should know is that wealth making opportunities will continue to present themselves. Bitcoin is not the Alpha and Omega of the human struggle for generational wealth. If you were not early into Bitcoin, you did miss a shot of a lifetime. The technology and information has enabled its believers to mint fortunes. Tech and Information will continue to do that. The question is whether you can be there. Putting ones time, money and effort in that is better than trying to cope with BTC ownership. Make BTC a compulsory part of your regular investment and stop fretting over "targets". Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: fillippone on May 20, 2021, 09:56:17 PM Another example I have been thinking about is the stacking sats through Signature Campaign.
Chipmixer started in 2017, with a payoff of 0.0375 BTC, when maxing allowed posts. Last May they reduced their payoff to a max of 300 USD per week, or roughly weekly 0.05 BTC. Code: 0.0375 Bitcoin in May 2017, in Epoch 3, was equal to 0:00:02 of network time. Today, in Epoch 4 those are equivalent to" 0.01875 Bitcoins or the same 0:00:02 of Network Time So, stacking sats through Chipmixer, the time slowed more than twice, as would have been implied by halving, but 8 times. Actually, this time is equivalent to the time in a couple of halvings, in 2029: Code: 0.01875 Bitcoins today are equivalent to 0:00:02 of network time. Those bitcoins in 01/2029, in Epoch 6, will be equivalent to 0.0046875 Bitcoins, or the same 0:00:02 of Network Time 0,0046875 BTC is roughly the ordinary Campaign payment nowadays. We are running ahead of time! I finally made sense of Foxpup Merit Cycling Club (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5226757.0) Time Travel recurring joke: they are using Foxpup payments to actually travel in time, stacking more sats, quicker! I will be stuck in time, forever. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: 20kevin20 on May 20, 2021, 10:23:12 PM Very interesting point of view indeed! Never thought about how scarce time is. In fact, as time goes on, I personally tend to appreciate time more than I used to.
Of course, the "percentage of total supply" mindset isn't imo the best you can go for. Even by owning 21 BTC you would only own 0.0001% of the supply so who cares really? Unless you're a billionaire, no matter how much you purchase you'll still be left very far behind, lol. In fact, we should stop counting Bitcoin as percentage, time or whatever else and just keep stacking up. It's precious, it's an asset like no other and we have a one-time opportunity to be part of it while the network is still young and maturing. :) Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: SquirrelJulietGarden on May 21, 2021, 03:17:56 AM Your Equivalent Network Time is another method to describe the deflation of Bitcoin.
There are some charts that present same meanings. I don't include the chart from third article here, please visit it to see. The second chart presents almost similar fact with your Equivalent Network Time. Those charts have same meanings, Bitcoin has a serious deflationary supply and it naturally become more scarcity with time. Your Equivalent Network Time is a reversed presentation of Deflationary supply chart. https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/images/bitcoin-inflation-chart.png https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/img/clock/inflation.png 1 https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ 2. https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/ 3. https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-halving-explainer Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: fillippone on May 21, 2021, 10:19:06 AM Your Equivalent Network Time is a reversed presentation of Deflationary supply chart. https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/images/bitcoin-inflation-chart.png https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/img/clock/inflation.png Indeed, I think I didn’t invent anything here. But my goal was focused on improving awareness on the scarcity of bitcoin future generations will face. So every Satoshi stacked today, could mean a world of difference in a few halving’s time, and I think this “alternative representation of the reality” could make people think more about that! Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: stompix on May 21, 2021, 10:57:01 AM Have fun. Yeah, indeed an interesting way of presenting the distribution but..not my thing. Unfortunately, I see it as a thing mainly aimed at nerds or a way of telling people how 100$ are more valuable when you spend on things that need 90$ in raw material to be produced than 100$ you won on the lottery. As long as you are not buying things with network time it is quite a useless pat on the shoulder for missing the train. Quote As time is a scarce resource both for humans and the Bitcoin blockchain, I have stopped thinking in terms of total supply and started thinking about my Bitcoin balance as a claim on ownership of blockchain time. Is anyone interested in exchanging some bitcoins based on their network time or on their age on bitcoin days? Interesting way of seeing things fillippone, but as I said, I doubt anyone would sleep better at night knowing they are rich and fulfilled in time. Remember: 1BTC=1BTC, don't go against this rule, infidel :D :D Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: SquirrelJulietGarden on May 21, 2021, 12:13:27 PM Indeed, I think I didn’t invent anything here. I don't offend you. You made a creative presentation for the fact the bitcoiners know. Impressively, your creative presentation can make them think deeply and think differently about the scarcity of bitcoin.They perhaps will think bitcoin is more scarce after they see your topic. It is your success. Quote But my goal was focused on improving awareness on the scarcity of bitcoin future generations will face. Mark your words. Miners are people who mostly understand your implication. They mine bitcoin, sell bitcoin and each four years, they look at bitcoin they sold with regret. Because they mine less bitcoin with same ASICs they have.So every Satoshi stacked today, could mean a world of difference in a few halving’s time, and I think this “alternative representation of the reality” could make people think more about that! Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: Husires on May 21, 2021, 01:50:52 PM Equivalent Network Time are based on bitcoin values at levels higher than 20 thousand (previous halving ATH). These calculations will only be correct if Bitcoin continues to remain above that ATH during all 6.25BTC halving.
Chipmixer started in 2017, with a payoff of 0.0375 BTC, when maxing allowed posts. Last May they reduced their payoff to a max of 300 USD per week, or roughly weekly 0.05 BTC. Bitcointalk donations and last bitcointalk 10th anniversary is another example. more than 50 members have been awarded prizes for 1 Bitcoin while one user was paying 10 times that amount to get a donor rank. 2) Advertise on this forum - Round 9 (2011) Current state: 10BTC 1 Goat 7BTC 7 Jonathan Ryan Owens 17 BTC ______________________ Advertise on this forum - Round 338 (2021) Auction ended, final result: Slots mBTC/Slot Person 4 20 BTCsquare.net 5 18 DogecoinMachine 38mBTC or 0.0280 BTC _________________________ Halving calculation: three halving: is equal to 17/8. Real One: current prices is less than 2.125 BTC ;) ;) You can get better results by tracking all ads rounds Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: acquafredda on May 21, 2021, 03:24:42 PM Your Equivalent Network Time is a reversed presentation of Deflationary supply chart. https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/images/bitcoin-inflation-chart.png https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/img/clock/inflation.png Indeed, I think I didn’t invent anything here. But my goal was focused on improving awareness on the scarcity of bitcoin future generations will face. So every Satoshi stacked today, could mean a world of difference in a few halving’s time, and I think this “alternative representation of the reality” could make people think more about that! Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: zasad@ on June 10, 2021, 08:00:06 PM Thanks to fillippone for the interesting article, I didn't even think about it. To be honest, each person also has his own time and it will end sometime.
Hardly any of the users care about what will happen to Bitcoin in 50 years or more, because life is short. Translation into Russian https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5343087.new#new Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: franky1 on June 10, 2021, 08:20:26 PM each coin of mine is worth only 12-24 seconds each
.. but how come there is no value in the fact that my utxo's are now built with like 400,000 blocks ontop of it thus making them far far far more difficult to re-org the blockchain to spend them it would cost a hell of alot of mining power to rebuild a change from 2012. far more then rebuilding a chan that just edited the last block today so why again is a 2012 block worth less than a 2021 block look i totally get it coins in 2012 were only 12seconds of time which were based on pretty mucch gpu. which is like 120 watts for 12 seconds so pretty much pennys but ever thought of a representation where utxo with more confirms are worth more Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: cr1776 on June 10, 2021, 10:26:18 PM The old adage is: time is money. That was of course pre inflated dollars or pounds etc. But time is not fiat money, but money with objective value. Fiat is inflated away at the whim of politicians and so is consequently a poor store of the value you create with your life.
Bitcoin is protection for the hours of your life. Just yesterday I saw this video of a Poker player I follow: Alec Torelli: The Future of Money: Ep.1 - What is Money? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZrOR6hroXA) Which is somehow related to this. He was commenting that money is closely related to time, because it takes us x hours of work to earn x money. And at the end of the video he pointed out that the best form of money would be the one that best represents time: our time is limited, so the best currency would be a limited one and not like worthless fiat which is potentially unlimited. The vision of owning bitcoin representing network time is very interesting. I think we could establish an equivalence with a new way of thinking, like: if you own 1 Bitcoin today (2021) you own x network time which is equivalent to x working hours of someone who earns the median salary in x country (normally for international statistics the USA is used as a reference, like to calculate the number of millionaires in the world, where the dollar is used as a reference, but it could be applied to any country). Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: tranthidung on August 10, 2021, 04:48:52 AM The Equivalent Network Time (ENT) for Epoch 3 (since May 2020 till now) and Epoch 6 (circa May 2032) shows that miners will have to spend about 384 seconds to mine 1 BTC since May 2032, that is 8-fold spent-time than currently.
Consequently, Bitcoin will become more scarce, at least in eyes and perspective of Bitcoin miners. Additionally, more Bitcoin will be lost. I expect the rate of lost Bitcoin will be slow down than in the past. Because the higher the BTC price is, the more carefulness people will take care of their Bitcoin and BTC wallets. Currently, probably 4.2M BTC was lost [1]. The cut-off to estimate probable lost BTC here is 5-year+ unspent UTXOs. By the way, let's look at the post in June 2010 from satoshi about lost Bitcoins. Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone. [1] https://unchained-capital.com/hodlwaves/ Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: Lucius on August 10, 2021, 10:23:53 AM Currently, probably 4.2M BTC was lost [1]. The cut-off to estimate probable lost BTC here is 5-year+ unspent UTXOs. I never liked those estimates because they are based on the very bad assumption that something was lost just because it wasn’t used for x years. By that, some of my coins have also been lost because I haven’t touched them in at least 5 years, and I believe there are a lot of such cases. I tend to believe that the total amount of lost coins is at least half as much, with at least 50% of what Satoshi himself mined. Additionally, more Bitcoin will be lost. I expect the rate of lost Bitcoin will be slow down than in the past. I think people have become much more cautious after 2017, and with the rise in popularity of hardware wallets the chances of losing have diminished significantly. Most will be careful, but that doesn't mean there won't be any losses - maybe even some intentional ones, because some people still send BTC to burn addresses for reasons known only to them. Some crazy rich man could buy BTC and then intentionally burn these coins just to show that it can do it. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: tranthidung on August 10, 2021, 12:22:56 PM I never liked those estimates because they are based on the very bad assumption that something was lost just because it wasn’t used for x years. By that, some of my coins have also been lost because I haven’t touched them in at least 5 years, and I believe there are a lot of such cases. I tend to believe that the total amount of lost coins is at least half as much, with at least 50% of what Satoshi himself mined. I know weaknesses of that estimation.It is better if we have estimation with a transparent methodology & are aware of its weaknesses. So from that chart, given stats and methodology, we can estimate the lost Bitcoin is about 4.2M, with the cut-off (5-year+ unspent UTXO) and with awareness of the issue you mentioned. It is only bad if people are not aware of the methodology's weaknesses. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: Kong Hey Pakboy on August 10, 2021, 12:28:19 PM I usually hear people say they regret not getting into Bitcoin earlier and how they should have paid more attention to it when they first heard about it then or five years ago; but in reality, anyone who is aware of Bitcoin now is still a very early adopter, and ten or five years from today, anyone who buys Bitcoin now would be most likely significantly up on their investment. Thank you for saying that but I don't think that ten years fit the title for an earyl adopter because it ten years, I would probably say that they are in the middle, I think there's a time that is only limited to people who are really early adopters. The scarcity is also amplified by the hype, increase in population and advance in technolgy.Bitcoin's scarcity model is one of the most important qualities of the network.it not only increases the value of the asset, but allows it to grow without becoming inflationary, as the shortage in supply compensated the equivalent increase in first value. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: Upgrade00 on August 10, 2021, 04:45:44 PM Thank you for saying that but I don't think that ten years fit the title for an earyl adopter because it ten years, I would probably say that they are in the middle, I think there's a time that is only limited to people who are really early adopters. The scarcity is also amplified by the hype, increase in population and advance in technolgy. If you consider the diffusion of innovation model, you'll find out that ten years can easily fit into the early adopter period, especially when there is still an enormous room for larger scale adoption. Bitcoin has the potential to be around for tens or hundreds of years from now.Only a very few percentage of the population have been actively exposed to Bitcoin and fewer companies or businesses accept it. I believe those in now are still very much early adopters. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: Lucius on August 11, 2021, 10:29:11 AM Only a very few percentage of the population have been actively exposed to Bitcoin and fewer companies or businesses accept it. I believe those in now are still very much early adopters. Some research has come to the conclusion that about 5% of the world’s population has come into some contact with cryptocurrencies, but here it should be taken into account that many invest in altcoins exclusively. I would even dare to say that the first 20 years may be considered a period in which anyone can be called an early adopter, at least in the sense that it is a period in which a 99% circulation supply will be achieved. After that, there will be only 210 000 BTC left for the next 100+ years of crypto mining, and all focus will shift to trading because the new mined BTC will no longer play a big role in the supply chain. Title: Re: Equivalent Network Time Post by: aysg76 on August 11, 2021, 11:09:42 AM Some research has come to the conclusion that about 5% of the world’s population has come into some contact with cryptocurrencies, but here it should be taken into account that many invest in altcoins exclusively. |
