|
Title: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on June 26, 2021, 08:07:17 PM Mods: theymos gave permission (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5337837.msg57318444#msg57318444) to keep this topic in Speculation. Please don't move it.
Summer dip, December 7th Game what will the price be on December 7th ...... 00.00 CET December 7th "2021" The one guessing closest to the end price of that given date..... Wins 0.077BTC from me (⬅ winner takes that price ) -You can give your price prediction until: 10-07(July)-2021 13.00 CET -to participate you must HAVE 250 EARNED MERIT and at least 100 ACTIVITY -(once the price is on the LIST, it cannot be changed anymore, so think deep very DEEP before adding on ::) ) -BITSTAMP PRICE to be clear!!! I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... ---> As I hope some fellow sources are not gonna let some good effort, thoughts, TA, reasonings go by unnoticed... ;D https://i.ibb.co/q5K3j28/9c47bd25-4091-45d0-bf3e-667095c5cd2a.jpg (https://ibb.co/k1jsBPT) ^I like this photo which crossed my path and want the game a bit following the ? 8) I also want to protect some peoples guesses so therefore more MERIT needed. I want every member to have 2% margin for there guess, so it can't be closely "surrounded" by other guesses. See LoyceV's post for the fine print. https://shahzadafzal.github.io/bitciontalk-summer-game-winner-dec-2021.html Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 26, 2021, 08:07:48 PM El duderino_ asked me to keep track of all predictions, and play "bad cop" by adding a fine print: I can reject anyone who I think did not earn his Merit. Example: this guy (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/227450.html) got most of his Merit by abusing the system. If I reject someone, I'll post my reasoning for doing so.
But it's El duderino_'s game, so he gets to be "good cop". El duderino_ can overrule any of my rejections by allowing the user to join anyway. Users with negative feedback or trust flags may be rejected or allowed, depending on circumstances. Please don't post "Reserved", just post when you're ready to make a prediction. First come, first served! Your prediction should be one amount in whole dollars (if you post cents, they gets truncated). Don't forget to explain your reasoning behind your prediction, that's a requirement for this game. There's a 2% "box" per prediction. Only one prediction per box within each range: Code: 1. $500.00 - $509.99 You can still predict any price you want, your guess does not claim the entire 2% "box". The 2% is only meant to evenly spread out predictions, the "2% boxes" will be ignored when deciding who's closest to the winning price. Example: User A predicts $505. User B predicts $512. If the Bitcoin price when the game ends is $509.35, User B is the winner. If you're crazy enough to predict under $500 or above $1,003,311.88, the 2% distance rule no longer applies. Those are uncharted territories. No alt accounts allowed! El duderino_ organizes very generous giveaways for the community. Please play nice. I'm mentioning all users with at least 250 earned Merit (data from last week (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3078328.msg57272992#msg57272992)) so if they use a bot for it, they'll receive a notification about this topic: Code: theymos Good luck! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 26, 2021, 08:08:02 PM Prediction overview
158. $12,200 PrimeNumber7 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57413633#msg57413633) 171. $14,687 wwzsocki (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330982#msg57330982) 175. $15,800 sabotag3x (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325588#msg57325588) 188. $20,500 mu_enrico (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420406#msg57420406) 192. $22,000 Ratimov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423602#msg57423602) 193. $22,580 Buchi-88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325859#msg57325859) 195. $23,500 0x256 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57424695#msg57424695) (second post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57427456#msg57427456)) 197. $24,317 icopress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57417588#msg57417588) 200. $26,242 Charles-Tim (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325430#msg57325430) 204. $28,000 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423807#msg57423807) 207. $29,792 Captain-Cryptory (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57353269#msg57353269) 208. $30,746 bakasabo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336861#msg57336861) 209. $31,342 poptok1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325289#msg57325289) 210. $31,500 bullrun2020bro (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57332159#msg57332159) 211. $32,339 ivomm (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57369987#msg57369987) (second part (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57371778#msg57371778)) 214. $34,200 Smartprofit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328153#msg57328153) 216. $35,500 Koal-84 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325757#msg57325757) 217. $36,700 soliton (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57335091#msg57335091) 218. $37,000 malevolent (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57377556#msg57377556) 219. $38,000 sheenshane (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326183#msg57326183) 222. $39,997 $crypto$ (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57339262#msg57339262) 223. $40,975 Coin-1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57339532#msg57339532) 224. $42,042 Hhampuz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326404#msg57326404) 225. $43,000 Globb0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405873#msg57405873) (second part (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57414038#msg57414038)) 226. $43,210 o_e_l_e_o (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57327741#msg57327741) 227. $44,444 BTCLiz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325687#msg57325687) 228. $45,666 STT (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57341142#msg57341142) 229. $46,464 Icygreen (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57349651#msg57349651) 230. $47,500 goldkingcoiner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57333260#msg57333260) 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331708#msg57331708) 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) 245. $63,000 bct_ail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420530#msg57420530) 246. $64,935 xhomerx10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411348#msg57411348) 247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) 248. $66,666 Hueristic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57401039#msg57401039) 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) 252. $72,435 cygan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331109#msg57331109) 253. $73,500 yhiaali3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326475#msg57326475) 254. $74,991 willi9974 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325414#msg57325414) 255. $77,217 witcher_sense (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325339#msg57325339) 256. $78,483 -doubleU- (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330154#msg57330154) 257. $80,000 AlcoHoDL (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325612#msg57325612) 258. $82,212 MinoRaiola (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57332592#msg57332592) 259. $84,400 SFR10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328194#msg57328194) 260. $86,000 LFC_Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325271#msg57325271) 261. $86,888 psycodad (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328599#msg57328599) 262. $88,888 Vispilio (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411469#msg57411469) 263. $90,001 babo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57359756#msg57359756) 264. $93,013 Nomad88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325671#msg57325671) (first post in 5 months) 265. $94,199 nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330220#msg57330220) 266. $96,000 tranthidung (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331245#msg57331245) 267. $97,988 Bthd (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325886#msg57325886) 268. $98,989 aoluain (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57409334#msg57409334) 269. $102,345 buwaytress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325341#msg57325341) 271. $105,000 hosseinimr93 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57425002#msg57425002) 272. $108,633 Upgrade00 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325450#msg57325450) 273. $110,262 fillippone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325365#msg57325365) 274. $112,124 mocacinno (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57351746#msg57351746) 275. $114,500 strawbs (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326478#msg57326478) 276. $116,195 xandry (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57386324#msg57386324) 277. $120,001 Wekkel (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328363#msg57328363) 278. $120,666 d_eddie (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57408244#msg57408244) 281. $128,218 NeuroticFish (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57342417#msg57342417) 282. $132,000 Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57335331#msg57335331) 286. $143,220 HairyMaclairy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329667#msg57329667) 289. $152,904 Dabs (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326362#msg57326362) 297. $178,845 LoyceV (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57370828#msg57370828) 299. $183,000 DeathAngel (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329997#msg57329997) 309. $225,309 Arriemoller (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326208#msg57326208) 321. $288,000 marcus_of_augustus (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325416#msg57325416) 324. $300,500 CryptopreneurBrainboss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325683#msg57325683) 326. $315,000 kurious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57348451#msg57348451) 329. $333,333 Wind_FURY (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375385#msg57375385) 341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JanEmil on June 26, 2021, 08:13:28 PM I think the price will be at $50000
We hyped to get to ATH high. When we go to up next time it will be more solid. I think ATH will be end year. December 7th will be around $50k Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on June 26, 2021, 08:19:48 PM Such a generous dude, thanks.
I’m going to say $86,000. I’m hoping we repeat the 2013 bull run so we’ve seen the big, mid cycle dip. I hope we slowly start to climb before a massive blow off top of about $200,000 but my December 7th prediction is $86,000. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: poptok1 on June 26, 2021, 08:22:24 PM $31,342.13 and if I understood correctly that would be box 209.
Thanks for running this! edit: My reasoning: Some time ago i was shocked to discover that despite all the volatility, bitcoin remains the most stable asset ever to exist, surpassing (slightly) even that of gold. Some mental gymnastic is necessary to get to this conclusion, nevertheless with some technical analysis techniques not so hard to notice. I think that some serious price spike awaits us very soon and, like every year around x-mas, price will drop again, to settle on that prediction given. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: jojo69 on June 26, 2021, 08:24:14 PM Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Globb0 on June 26, 2021, 08:24:39 PM Thank you the dude.
Stand by to receive data.......... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 26, 2021, 08:25:10 PM $31,342.13 and if I understood correctly that would be box 209. Decimals get ignored. I'm not sure yet if predictions without reasoning behind it are allowed. I'll ask El duderino_.Update: See below: tell us why! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on June 26, 2021, 08:27:39 PM $31,342.13 and if I understood correctly that would be box 209. Decimals get ignored. I'm not sure yet if predictions without reasoning behind it are allowed. I'll ask El duderino_.I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... To participate there MUST be ...... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: witcher_sense on June 26, 2021, 08:32:08 PM I am pretty sure Bitcoin will be at 77217$.
EDIT: My prediction is mostly based on Stock-to-flow model by PlanB because this is the only model that should work in the long-term horizon. I also multiplied the price predicted by that model by the coefficient I calculated empirically. I also used witcher senses to make sure I predicted correctly. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on June 26, 2021, 08:32:47 PM Thank you duderino, haven't played this in a long time (and thanks for the tag Loyce, that's precisely how I saw this, via notification!). Can't squeeze any more merits to give, but I won't forget!
I've always played this with a bit of overestimation, but Box 269. $102,345 -- edited from Box 270 is my pick. And here's my pretend-expert analysis. 1. There's been a big bet floating around on one of my bookies on Dec 31 price to be over $100k. It even pays out a cheeky 1/100 if it wins. So if a big bookie believes in it, who am I a mere mortal not to? 2. Death crosses leading to the real rally? We've just had one and 63k ATH has got to be such a downer that I'm gunning for a "true rally"... en route to the "true winter". Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: fillippone on June 26, 2021, 08:37:15 PM USD 110,262.
Because I am a stock to flow zealot. This is the model prediction. This is a difficult time for S2F believer, but I want this model to succeed. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on June 26, 2021, 08:37:50 PM 70k
I will look for the box # 250 I think I picked 70k based on my early prediction of 70k when we got to 64k. So basically I am always picking 70k in all contests until we get there. ;D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: willi9974 on June 26, 2021, 08:47:20 PM My tip is
Box 254. 74,957.22 $ - $ 76,456.35 —> 74,991.01 $ I trust in Bitcoin and follow the Stock to flow Model. The actual dip is only a short time and the Price will go up in this or next year and follow the S2F modell Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: marcus_of_augustus on June 26, 2021, 08:47:50 PM $288,000 box 321
PlanB S2FX I think the model is still on track, institutional buying is getting lined up once china is no longer dominant mining nation they can enter. US BTC ETFs come online, dollar inflation proves NOT to be transitory but takes off. Geopolitical instabilty becomes more widespread with increasing currency attacks/tensions between failing central banks. More minor nations hop on ES btc legal tender bandwagon. Will be near the top of this bull run. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on June 26, 2021, 08:50:50 PM It has been May 2020 Bitcoin mining reward halved which do resulting to price increase as people usually fomo around that time, the price has increased drastically and significantly and reach all time high on April 15th, 2021. Bitcoin price later decreased from the all-time-high to around $31000, I believe the bull market is over for now and will begin very significant around ending of December to maybe February 2022. I am even still thinking the price of bitcoin can still decrease below $31000 for now because I believe just decreasing to just half price of the all-time-high is still not enough for the dip, there should still be further decrement while the bull run will start not at the beginning of December but at the ending time. This makes me take $26,242 to likely be its price at the time. Edit: Corrected. Thanks. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Upgrade00 on June 26, 2021, 08:54:22 PM I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... Sharing the reason for a certain price prediction does help improve the discussion, but I do not think one can simply pick an amount down to the hundreds without there being a large element of randomness. I could expect Bitcoin to be pretty high and in a bull run at the end of the year, due to growing adoption levels, BIPs, and the current price trend which has resisted sustained dips below $30k, but I don't have any rationale for saying it will be at $108,633.My prediction: $108,633 Box 272 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: tweetious on June 26, 2021, 08:57:54 PM $68,655
On Tuesday December 7th 2021, is the "National Cotton Candy Day". "Machine-spun cotton candy was invented in 1897 by dentist William Morrison and confectioner John C. Wharton, and first introduced to a wide audience at the 1904 World's Fair as "Fairy Floss" with great success, selling 68,655 boxes at 25¢ (equivalent to $7.2 in 2020) per box" ;D Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_candy Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceMobile on June 26, 2021, 09:00:37 PM 254. 74,957.22 $ - $ 76,456.35 You need to predict a price, not a range.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: willi9974 on June 26, 2021, 09:04:38 PM 254. 74,957.22 $ - $ 76,456.35 You need to predict a price, not a range.Done Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: sabotag3x on June 26, 2021, 09:22:56 PM Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: AlcoHoDL on June 26, 2021, 09:28:04 PM I'm taking Box 257 ($79,545.20 - $81,136.09)
My prediction is exactly $80,000 Reasoning: $80,000 is just a gut feeling amount -- no specific reasoning, other than a SOMA guess (and I'm being bearish here, I would normally expect a much higher amount, but with the recent Elon/China events, I just had to be more conservative). I'm basically following the S2F model, but SOMA-adjusted for Elon/China. Still a fine number to reach, nearly triple the current amount ($31k). This will pave the way for the $100k milestone, which could be reached in New Year's Day of 2022, or thereabouts. As always, BIG thanks to The Dude for another great game! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Nomad88 on June 26, 2021, 09:41:02 PM $93,013
I have many reasons behind my prediction. But I will only mention the most important one (which is also my personal favorite): "Money printer go brrr...." Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: CryptopreneurBrainboss on June 26, 2021, 09:44:32 PM $300,500 I repeat again so you know it's not a mistake $300,500
Box 324 Why do I think that price? Ans: basing my prediction on the 10X ROI from previous years (2013/2017) The dip saw it dipping to $28k so a 10X increase should see bitcoin trading above $280k but just to increase my chances I'll be putting in more dollars. Am I just been optimistic for my selfish interest? Ans: Probably not, infact I don't own any Bitcoin currently. Regards, Brainboss. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: BTCLiz on June 26, 2021, 09:44:58 PM Box 227: 44.444$
Why: I beliefe the next month we will stay below 40k. Central banks will flood the markets with more money to fight the consequences of covid. Investors will look for investment opportunities to fight inflation. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Lafu on June 26, 2021, 09:45:22 PM Thanks for the mention to this thread LoyceV and El duderino_
I will take the box 239. $55,694.32 - $56,808.19 and hope i get close enough. If the price is higher in December i am also good with that . Make the one that is close to it win , good luck for everybody . Edit: 55,700$ Reason: i dont watch many Charts and it looks like it will get up slow , hopefully , but i Trust Bitcoin. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Koal-84 on June 26, 2021, 09:58:12 PM When i unterstand it right i will take Box
216. $35,318.88 - $36,025.25 And my tip is $35.500 why? I think we can hold the price now once and there are no great fluctuations and I personally hope for a longer quiet sideways. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mikeywith on June 26, 2021, 10:07:21 PM Thanks El duderino_ for the fun game.
My take on this cycle that it's not over and what we are in now is a large extended bear trap that will take months to end. https://i.ibb.co/8XtnLdn/BTC-predict.png This is my favorite long-term chart, for nearly a decade bitcoin has been within this channel, it spends about 70% of that time in the green area and, maybe 20% in the yellow, and just about 10% in the red zone. Since I believe this bear trap will last longer and given that I'd bet on BTC price to be within the green channel any given day since it has a lot more chances than being elsewhere, so my guess is Dec will be the month when we start heading to the last ATH, and we will probably be at the 50k range, so I'll take box 238 at of price $54,666. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Buchi-88 on June 26, 2021, 10:25:52 PM Thanks for the betting game, I think it comes the bear and we end up at $ 22,580 why exactly I can not say but the air is out and there have or will be for example with the DOGE dirt once again burn their fingers so right. I think this is Box 194.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Bthd on June 26, 2021, 10:32:00 PM I'm not a good trader but I prefer to using dip-ath prices for a prediction.
0,01 → 32 (3200x) (Oct 2010 - Jun 2011) 2 → 1166 (583x) (Nov 2011 - Nov 2013) 156 → 19644 (125x) (Jan 2015 - Dec 2017) 3096 → ? (?) (Dec 2018 - ? ) 3200-583-125-? 3200/583= 5,49 583/125= 4,66 5,49/4,66= 1.17x Next one should be ~3,95 125/3,95= 31,65 31,65*3096 = 97.988,4$ (New ath price - Dec 2021) Code: 267. $96,965.15 - $98,904.45 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Chikito on June 26, 2021, 10:52:53 PM 281. $127,943.46 - $130,502.32
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: sheenshane on June 26, 2021, 11:47:42 PM Notified, thanks for mentioning.
Meh, box 219. Price range at $37,480.68 - $38,230.28 My final prediction is $38,000/1 Bitcoin on December 07, 2021. Reason: We will still have a bear market until the 4th quarter of this year and the middle of the 4th quarter might the start of the bullish trend until next year. In charting the price in the chart, we will able to draw a V-shaped formation from the 3rd quarter this year to the second quarter next year. It seems we can't able to see a new ATH of $100k. But who knows. Thanks, El duderino_, dude. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Arriemoller on June 26, 2021, 11:55:02 PM Box 309
Price 225 309 Just a guess based loosely on earlier cycles. I think we should be close to the top by then, and the top should be somewhere between 100 000 and 300 000 USD And thank you very much for doing these games Your Dudenes [moderator's note: consecutive posts merged] Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Dabs on June 27, 2021, 12:58:31 AM 290. $152,904.28 - $155,962.36
If you want an exact number use 152,904.28. This is based on current trends and also S2F but I'm taming my guess a little lower than projected so somewhere in the middle between 100k and 200k. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hhampuz on June 27, 2021, 01:11:01 AM 224. $42,042
I think we all got baited this year by the bull run, it could have just been a glimpse of what's to come (which should be something about 10x my prediction above) next year. So more smooth sailing with slow increase over the rest of 2021, which is all fine with me, and then takeoff mid-late 2022! Also, thank you El Duderino_ for hosting this, I remember taking part in one some years ago and it was super fun then (when you had your old name). Cheers! And thanks to LoyceV for the notification :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: yhiaali3 on June 27, 2021, 01:39:14 AM I think the price will be 73,500$
Looking at the price chart of Bitcoin, we find that from 2017 until 2020 Bitcoin repeats almost the same scenario, and given the strength of the current correction I think that the next rally will be just as strong this time as well. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: strawbs on June 27, 2021, 01:39:54 AM Box 275. $113,610.13 - $115,882.33 and if it's a specific number that's required, I'm going for $114,500.
I'm thinking we're going to double the ATH by Christmas (which would be $129,790) so my chosen figure above is what I expect it to be a couple of weeks before Christmas. This is based on a math and science approach opposite to that used by Proudhon. It always works, except when it doesn't. And I can't draw charts so I rely heavily on hopium instead. Thanks Dude, great fun idea! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: smartcomet on June 27, 2021, 02:30:27 AM Box 239. 56400
I hope the bitcoin hashrate has touched the bottrom (90E) , and we will see that some miners will move to other contries in coming months. On December 7th, the hastrate may rebound up to 130E, and the price may reach the price 56400 on Feb 16, 2021. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: GeorgeJohn on June 27, 2021, 03:53:08 AM $31,342.13 and if I understood correctly that would be box 209. Decimals get ignored. I'm not sure yet if predictions without reasoning behind it are allowed. I'll ask El duderino_.Update: See below: tell us why! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Bttzed03 on June 27, 2021, 04:04:34 AM Thanks for the mention and the competition.
I don't really know how long the consolidation period will be but I bet on 3 more months. After that, I expect a fast climb to the previous ATH (~$65K) and will go for another 2x by December. I wanted to pick $130K but that's too close to @strawbs' price. My prediction is $135,000. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: UmerIdrees on June 27, 2021, 04:20:29 AM -to participate you must HAVE 250 EARNED MERIT and at least 100 ACTIVITY I only had this question is why the full members can't participate in this contest ? They don't have vision on the price prediction for bitcoin or don't have much knowledge ? All those who earned 250 merits can more precisely predict the bitcoin price ? I am sad being left out here :( Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: o_e_l_e_o on June 27, 2021, 06:52:52 AM You need a reason?
Consecutive numbers are What I always pick. I cannot read charts. I don't understand TA. I just like patterns. I always choose my Numbers with a haiku, so Four Three Two One Naught. $43,210 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: bitebits on June 27, 2021, 07:46:49 AM The trend of bitcoin against the petrodollar is up since the genesis block (https://mempool.space/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f) got mined on the 3rd of January 2009. Speculating on any dollar number under the current $33210 (https://www.bitstamp.net/markets/btc/usd/) on Bitstamp therefore makes little sense. We only have to look Up which unfortunately decreases the odds of a correct guesstimate infinitely.
The current ~50% price reduction from the $64895.22 ATH (https://cryptowat.ch/charts/BITSTAMP:BTC-USD?period=1w_Monday) on Bitstamp does temporarily affect the influx of freshly printed fiat. It as well will take some time to get beyond the selling pressure on the inevitable way up by those wanting their inflationary fiat back or in retrospective regret not selling (more). Given the short time frame between now and the 7th of December, about five months, a reasonable price is therefore likely between $33210 and $64895. If LFC and myself were the only ones making a prediction, any number I pick within that range would likely win this speculation game. But since there still seems to be a bit of competition within this already narrow range, I'll go with the SOMA lucky number $47777. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Smartprofit on June 27, 2021, 08:09:18 AM My prediction:
box 214, price of 1 BTC = $34,200. In my opinion, consolidation will continue in 2021, accumulation at a level above the price of $ 30,000. Many will sell their bitcoins. This is a fatal mistake. only HODL! In 2022, the price of 1 BTC = $ 300,000. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JimboToronto on June 27, 2021, 08:10:36 AM Box 331 - $350,000 ($350k) please.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: SFR10 on June 27, 2021, 08:16:34 AM I'm mentioning all users with at least 250 earned Merit (data from last week (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3078328.msg57272992#msg57272992)) so if they use a bot for it, they'll receive a notification about this topic: Thank you for doing that :)$84,400 [box 259] - Initially, I came up with $84,482.34 but box 260 was already taken by @LFC_Bitcoin, so I went with the closest one. Reason/formula:
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wekkel on June 27, 2021, 08:47:40 AM my prediction is $120,001.
Based on factors. $65k intermediate top $30k low (factor 0.5x) $120k (and going up) factor 4x Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: psycodad on June 27, 2021, 09:26:34 AM EDIT: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329850#msg57329850)
$86888 - box 261, after finally understanding the rules ::) The exact number above is of course just made up, I just like to have a lot of 8s (wait, don't read that out loud, it could sound misleading..) Still I think (read: I desperately hope) the price to end up between 80k and 90k by about that time. I believe needed retail demand is currently scared a lot by the dirty Bitcoin, Bitcoin destroying the environment, we need PoS coz it's good for the panda bears etc. narrative. Would that not have happened (the whole kerfuffle that was started by some assburger person whom we don't mention here so not to further boost his unstable ego), my estimate would be in the $120-150k area for that time. So many bullish news currently that seem not to move the price just because of the environmental concerns that have been loudly voiced lately by self-appointed opinion makers and wanna-be leaders. El Salvador looks like big time good news to me that just hasn't made the headlines it deserves yet. This could be big and a lot of similar shaped countries could follow soon. Once the public perception changes away from dirty crims money, retail will be happy again to enter the market. I expected this to take a lot of time, but China exiting the mining market is great news and might speed things up a lot. That said, I am totally sure about my prediction, just not about the point in time it will be reached :P Thanks to the Dude for these games, I don't intend / play to win actually, but it's a lot of fun and we need something to do while we wait for the Satoshi to be worth 1 USD cent. Good luck to everybody with a prediction higher than mine, I sincerely hope you win ;D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 27, 2021, 10:55:58 AM I've updated the Prediction overview (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325213#msg57325213).
I've truncated a few predictions to remove the cents. 63000$ based on the chart. $87,450 Stand by to receive data.......... Box 331 - $350,000 ($350k) please. Please update your posts to fit this requirement:I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... If you edit your post, I'd appreciate a PM so I don't miss it.To participate there MUST be ...... Box 270. $102,345 Your prediction fits in box 269.201. $26,242 Your prediction fits in box 200.$ 22,580 Close, it's 193.I think this is Box 194. 231. $47,534.56 - $48,485.24 I will take the box 239. $55,694.32 - $56,808.19 281. $127,943.46 - $130,502.32 Please predict an amount, not a range. And add your thinking reasoning as required by El duderino_. Note that your box was not reserved yet, if it's still available when you edit your post, please send me a PM so I don't miss it.$300,500k I repeat again so you know it's not a mistake $300,500k I think you made a mistake, lol: I've ignored the "k" behind your prediction, assuming you don't want to predict $300,500,000. If I'm wrong, please post and I'll put you in "uncharted territories".290. $152,904.28 - $155,962.36 I truncate cents, so your entry becomes $152,904. That puts you in the previous box (289):If you want an exact number use 152,904.28. Code: 289. $149,906.16 - $152,904.27 I will take Box 256. $77,985.49 Truncating to $77,985 puts you in box 255, which is taken. Please make another prediction. When you edit your post, please send me a PM so I don't miss it.Box 239. 56400 Sorry, you can't join. You're not even close to the 250 earned Merit requirement.~snip~ You have a Newbie warning Flag. Sorry, you can't join.I only had this question is why the full members can't participate in this contest ? El duderino_'s game, so his rules. See this topic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340195.0). In short: the earned Merit requirement is to give established members a better chance, while reducing the chance of alt accounts joining.I notice several users use the Stock to Flow model for their prediction, which apparently results in many different predictions. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on June 27, 2021, 11:19:31 AM Corrected (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325430#msg57325430). Thanks.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: HairyMaclairy on June 27, 2021, 12:19:22 PM $143,220
The reason is because we will peak at $186,00 in mid December 2021. At 7 December we are already going parabolic, but have only achieved 77% of the new ATH. I have been calling for a top $186k for at least two years now. https://i.imgur.com/sAZV7FJ.png Box 286 Thanks Dude for the competition Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on June 27, 2021, 12:22:13 PM Thank you El duderino_ for this competition.
Thank you LoyceV for invitation 6 months from now ... Its super hard but lets try. First of all - is it the end of bull run? I think that bubble that we've seen should not end up with 3 month consolidation. Thats not how bubble looks like. Every bitcoin bubble, dotcom bubble (tech bubbles), tulip bubble (dumb bubble), silver in 2011 ended with masive final spike - pure mania of street invesotrs and short squeez of early shorters. https://i.imgur.com/EWDX6wI.png I think that bitcoin was never stronger from fundamential point of view: Bitcoin just started to eat its portion of corporate debt bubble cake (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5344525.msg57259351#msg57259351) Until 2023 FED does not plan to rise interest rates (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/16/business/economy/fed-meeting-inflation.html). I assume that we should have 1.5 years more of "bubble of everything" BTC was never an "alternative investment asset" during The Real Interest Rate being negative 5%. https://i.imgur.com/wnHOKoL.png https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-interest-rate/ It means that if you have $1M in your bank account you are paying $4166 MONTHLY in inflation (in devaluation of your savings). Fking 4k! Treasury bonds or term deposits gives nothing (0-0,2%). People are desperate to find good investment. Last time it was like that in 1980! But in 1980 Debt to GDP wasnt at 140% Until 2023 inflation will go to 20%. Everything will pump. Why BTC should dump? Only because of short term price action and scary looking chart? I guess that we are currently in massive shake out made by whale manipulation that will end sooner or later ... Maybe after testing 20k in next month? Maybe even now. Now, that we know the direction that I think price will go its time for my price guess. Here I must say that I think that its impossible to estimate this. I just randomdraw how a strong recovery could look like and cut off December 7th (white line). Strong recovery because thats why I expect based on economic situation and bitcoin fundamentials. https://i.imgur.com/OUYUxKt.png Green line is a taproot activation. I think it will help recovery. From this we have 44500 or 53300 (depends if we are going to test 20k or bottomed right now). If I was writing this post yesterday I would pick 44500 after testin 20k. Today, after strong recovery from 30k to 33k i'm closer to "we've seen bottom" verion. So after long story final bet is $53 300 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Kylapoiss on June 27, 2021, 12:26:18 PM Seven seven yo
I hope for the seven yo But never win these $57,777 Thanks dude for the competition once again! You sure are awesome! Kisses&hugs #nohomo Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on June 27, 2021, 12:37:49 PM Enjoying the uber bullish predictions (which are actually made by some of the most respected OG’s on the forum).
HairyMaclairy especially I have a lot of time for. Knowing him personally, away from the forum, this guy knows what he is talking about. JimboToronto, you wiry old fox, I will pay for your drinks all weekend if/when we hit your price :D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 27, 2021, 12:39:23 PM $88888 - box 262 if I read that right. Although "pending", this box is (currently) taken:262. $87,450 jojo69 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325293#msg57325293) pending thinking reasoning Can you pick a new prediction?Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: psycodad on June 27, 2021, 12:55:28 PM $88888 - box 262 if I read that right. Although "pending", this box is (currently) taken:262. $87,450 jojo69 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325293#msg57325293) pending thinking reasoning Can you pick a new prediction?Ah, sorry and thanks for the heads-up. I read the intro too fast obviously and initially thought multiple predictions within a box are allowed, more caffeine helped with that. I have edited my post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328599#msg57328599) to claim box 261 with $86888 (<- still loads of 8s, so I am fine there, the general idea being $80-90k) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: DeathAngel on June 27, 2021, 01:18:12 PM Box 299 with an estimate of $183,000 if possible? Thanks for the opportunity El Duderino_ & also to LoyceV for managing the contest.
Edit - Apologies I forgot a reasoning. Basically the bull run is still alive, I think we will fall short of $288,000 (PlanB prediction). $183,000 seems possible. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: -doubleU- on June 27, 2021, 01:42:03 PM My prediction is:
Box 256: $77,985.49 - $79,545.19 -> 78,483.65$ I see in the actual Price only as a short Dip and i trust the Stock to flow Model. I think we see a fast climb to the previous ATH at the end of the year and a another run at the beginning of 2022. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: nelson4lov on June 27, 2021, 01:53:13 PM Box - 265.
$94,199 I haven't checked the charts because it's messy at the moment but the last time I checked, the trend was macro bullish in the mid-term. According to popular opinions and personal observations, the bull run isn't over yet and we would see new highs when markets get back on track. That said, The reason I'm going with box 265 is because; prior to bitcoin hitting $30k, 40k, etc all the way to $60k, $100k has been seen as the number #1 milestone price for this bull run. But even if price would reach highs of $100k, it might as well just stop around $93K as sell orders would be piled up. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: wwzsocki on June 27, 2021, 03:36:56 PM I have to pick box 171 with price prediction 14,687.69$
Why so low? Of course I would love to see BTC price mark at 100K USD but I don't think it is possible so fast, not in December already for sure. Bear market just started, no doubt that BTC is in correction right now and it will take at least 6 months to end it. If we are lucky correction will end exactly in December and that is why such low ball prediction of course if it happens I will buy like crazy on these levels 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: cygan on June 27, 2021, 03:49:50 PM box 252 👉 $72435 per 1BTC
reason: Bitcoin is not dead and there will definitely still be new ath's this year 8) cant read any charts and i believe in the digital gold ;) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 27, 2021, 04:03:17 PM let me pick box 237 with a predicted price of $53,635.48 Sorry, you don't qualify. You're 237 earned Merits (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/875468.html) short.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: tranthidung on June 27, 2021, 04:05:59 PM 266. $95,063.88 - $96,965.14
My prediction: $96,000 so I choose the box 266. It is not because it is my most favorite box but the rest one around it. Bitcoin will likely to be warmed up again around November and in December, it can retest the current all time high. So why do I choose such high price, not somewhere around $60k? The momentum of Bitcoin becomes bigger with time and its cycle will be shorter and accumulation can be finished sooner than it was in the past cycles. So I choose less than 50% up from current all time high. :) The award for winner will be 0.077 BTC that is so great. I recall in the previous game, the award is 0.15 BTC. Is it correct? :D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 27, 2021, 04:35:58 PM 266. $95,063.88 - $96,965.14 You have to predict one amount, not a range. Please PM me after editing so I don't overlook it.Quote I recall in the previous game, the award is 0.15 BTC. Is it correct? :D It varies (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340195.0), but I count a total far above 1 BTC in giveaways from El duderino_.should i delete my reply? You can if you want.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: DdmrDdmr on June 27, 2021, 05:06:37 PM First and foremost, I never get any of my predictions right. I’ve never got into TA further than reading here and there, and haven’t managed to date to take a deep interest into fully understanding the inner basis of these models (which perhaps I should do at some point).
This year’s price has been marked rather more by tweets and news/events than anything else, being seemingly very sensitive to them, many of them having no substance behind, but presenting a strong outcome in terms of price movement. El Salvador’s ongoing bitcoin plan is conceptually a great playing ground to observe a complete day-to-day ecosystem set around bitcoin, but being so, it has lacked so far influencing a price boost that at least has some real substance to it. I would have thought that it would have acted as a catalyst countering unsubstantial twat Tweets, but no such thing has happened yet. It seems that there is a higher sensitivity to price for negative events than substantial positive ones, and the former are more recurrent (and easily generated) on the horizon. I don’t expect them to flip in the semester to come to a great degree. Based on the above, I wouldn’t expect the second semester to place bitcoin price above 50K$, but I’ll settle my entry for this contest as follows: Price: 48,999 $ Box: 232. $48,485.25 - $49,454.95 Note: The good this, as I stated, is that I’m dreadful at price predicting … Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on June 27, 2021, 05:47:25 PM Quote I recall in the previous game, the award is 0.15 BTC. Is it correct? :D It varies (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340195.0), but I count a total far above 1 BTC in giveaways from El duderino_.Depends even been some from .25 as well, think the first one was .5 but not sure, first game where in the WO and didn’t had a separate thread …. Have made a thread with all the previous game except the few which where held in the WO If someone can find those original posts, I will add them to the thread Cheers Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: bullrun2024bro on June 27, 2021, 06:02:12 PM Hey @El duderino_, thank you for another exciting giveaway!
Price: $31,500 Box: 210. $31,362.16 - $31,989.39 The current hype around meme coins has destroyed a lot of trust in the crypto market and newcomers in particular have had their fingers burnt. Accordingly, I believe that we will see a sideways market in the coming months and I don't think we will see much higher prices at the beginning of December compared to where we are now. (I really hope I am wrong and we'll be at 100k by the end of the year according to the Stock-To-Flow-Model) Good luck to all participants! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: lcharles123 on June 27, 2021, 07:05:03 PM Box 234, $51,000
I think bear market is only short term. Also, the average of move between past periods give us around +61% , all aproximations, of course :) https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/c1DYBld7.png Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: MinoRaiola on June 27, 2021, 07:23:13 PM Price: $82,212
Box: 258. $81,136.10 - $82,758.82 A x10 would be sensational, I can't imagine that. The reason for this is the worldwide exceptional situation with corona. I think a new ATH is very likely. I always have a look at PlanB and Stock-to-Flow as well as the Rainbow Chart (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/) and there was no maximum bubbly territory there in this bull. Actually my estimate wouldn’t be too low, but I think Corona has messed it up. https://i.ibb.co/G09Rdyc/87-FE7-F36-DEDD-4-DE0-BE70-A96-E355-CAB1-B.jpg (https://ibb.co/s2Cqgny) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: joker_josue on June 27, 2021, 08:00:26 PM $43,155 --- Box 225
I believe the price will go up, but it shouldn't have a substantial increase. Maybe after December 7th it will go up a lot, before it will be close to this value. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 27, 2021, 08:12:05 PM Box 234, $51,000 Sorry, you don't qualify. You're 214 earned Merits (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/171309.html) short.Price: $82,212 Please add your thinking reasoning as required by El duderino_. Note that your box was not reserved yet, if it's still available when you edit your post, please send me a PM so I don't miss it.$43,155 Sorry, you don't qualify. You're 166 earned Merits (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/97582.html) short.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: goldkingcoiner on June 27, 2021, 10:08:22 PM 48 000 Edit: Since 231 is taken by some sneaky pete, I will be taking 230: 47500. My explaination: By expecting that we are not finished with our uptrend, if you look at the logarithmic Bitcoin chart, (which hasn't failed us yet) we can predict that the bull run is not over for this year. However I do expect a lot of insecurity and sideways action until we test 50k again. By using the most likely fibonacci sequences we can somewhat predict the resistance and support areas. Looks something like this: https://i.ibb.co/cJhw3TG/Unbenannt.png (https://ibb.co/H7TC4gW) Thanks for the awesome contest, my dude! You make speculation very fun! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Avantikakaur on June 28, 2021, 04:06:35 AM There is no doubt here that Bitcoin will exceed the tray top limit But even though bitcoin is difficult to say the exact month or time, we can still expect that Bitcoin will exceed all it's limits in December. One of the most promising points Bitcoin has left is that it has a potential to exceed $88k or more. We can wait for December-January seems to me that next December may be the golden age of Bitcoin.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: joker_josue on June 28, 2021, 06:50:45 AM $43,155 Sorry, you don't qualify. You're 166 earned Merits (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/97582.html) short.It was the merits of the last 120 days, ok... I hadn't noticed. Sorry. Good luck to the participants. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: soliton on June 28, 2021, 06:58:23 AM My guess is $36,7 (box 217)
Reasoning: right now all of us witness unprecedented price drop associated with the market flooding with unsecured candy wrappers aka USDT and a massive ASICs shutdown. There are strong doubts that all disconnected power will find a refuge somewhere abroad. And, so far, the price has been growing with the hash rate. It will take time to restore it to at least the previous highest level. There is very little hope for the growth until November-December. If the price manages to stabilize itself at $36,7 ( God willing) which is the a standard (in Celsius scale) for normal temperature of human body, I'll be happy. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Phil_S on June 28, 2021, 07:44:48 AM Box 282: 132,000
My reasoning: while 2021 shapes to become the same bullrun year like 2013 and 2017, we can't just repeat the pattern exactly. We might get a premature top by October-November due to frontrun/FOMO effect (up to 160,000), and then go down a little by December-January (thus 132,000 preduction), but then we'll get a real top around 200,000 by Ferbuary-March. Just my gut talking. Thanks to Dude! Thanks to LoyceV! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: zanezane on June 28, 2021, 09:49:44 AM Box 269(Nice): $100,882.55 - $102,900.19
My reason for picking that value is because I think that analysts are all agreeing that bitcoin might reach around the 6 digit territory by the end of the year after a winter in the mid year. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 28, 2021, 10:25:34 AM I say box 231, Sorry, this box is taken:48 000 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) Feel free to make a new prediction. If you edit your post, please PM me so I don't overlook it.It was the merits of the last 120 days It's not. The 250 Merit needs to be earned (not airdropped).My guess is $36,7 (box 217) I've put you up for $36,700.Box 269(Nice): $100,882.55 - $102,900.19 Sorry, you don't qualify. You're 229 earned Merit (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/1047251.html) short.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mole0815 on June 28, 2021, 12:32:47 PM Great competition!
I would very much like to choose USD 54545 - Box 237 ($53,531.64 - $54,602.26). Personally, I see this year still an ATH coming to us but that will happen sooner for my feeling. So an ATH of XXX.XXX which then ends in a -50% setback in December. And directly in Q1 2022 we really start through 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: bakasabo on June 28, 2021, 12:36:22 PM $30,746 ( box #208. $30,144.32 - $30,747.20)
Reason: I dont think that the price will change much. Elon Musk and people like him dont make a huge impact on Bitcoin anymore. I guess that another major growth we will see only after another halving. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vapourminer on June 28, 2021, 01:00:52 PM dude, THANK YOU again for another awesome game.
i will take my old prediction of 60,000 USD from the last game, dust it off, throw maybe one brain cell at TA (with the predicable result of NULL) so i again have no reasoning to back it up. so this would fall into entry 242: 242. $59,103.25 - $60,285.31 EDIT crap i will add actual TA in a bit. if the dude or loyce want to delete my entry till then thats cool ill be back EDIT2 ok so my original 60k number im reusing was based on, well, nothing. so here my try at turning nothing into some sort of TA (isnt that how its done anyway?) look we were cruising around 50-60k for a while during the mini runup. and good news was seeemingly everywhere (musk pre fuckery, saylor, banks getting in on the action, taproot - all good signs for UPpity action), and even the occasional (smallish) bad news bits couldnt make a dent. of course then the chinese hash thing came along and pulled the rug out. but now it seems some of that hash will be back, we will figure out the chinese "missing hash" thing soon enough and the trajectory price can go back to that 50-60k range easily enough. so thats where my 60k prediction came from , thats my story and im sticking to it ;D EDIT3 i really should RTFM before entering contests lol. thanks again dude Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: zanezane on June 28, 2021, 01:15:14 PM ~ Sorry, you don't qualify. You're 229 earned Merit (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/1047251.html) short.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: alegotardo on June 28, 2021, 02:49:18 PM I bet really bad last time, and I saw on the other bets most got screwed along with me.
Well, I hope that if I'm going to get it wrong again, that this time it's because I should have bet much higher. I'm confident that Bitcoin will reach $65430 on December 7th because we would already be above 50k, at least, if there wasn't so much FUD from Elon and China. After these turbulent moments, the BTC must continue advancing. Thanks @El duderino_ Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 28, 2021, 05:21:41 PM $31,280 ( box #209. $30,747.21 - $31,362.15) This box is taken:209. $31,342 poptok1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325289#msg57325289) Please change your prediction to fit another box, and if you edit your post, PM me so I don't overlook it.crap i will add actual TA in a bit. Just edit your post. I gave you a special tag:242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) and I quote: "crap i will add actual TA in a bit" if the dude or loyce want to delete my entry till then thats cool ill be back None of us have such power here.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: goldkingcoiner on June 28, 2021, 05:26:46 PM I say box 231, Sorry, this box is taken48 000 Ok then 230 : 47500 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: $crypto$ on June 28, 2021, 06:34:25 PM edit: I will take box 222 because nothing has been selected yet I think this is exactly what I predicted. ($39,997.33)
I don't think it will last long to be true bullish that we know we have to go through some other challenges FUD must stabilize in order for investors to get stronger on the resistance of bad news. So in December I don't think it will be far from what I predicted because it has already reached ATH, then ATH is difficult to achieve again in the near future so it will take more time. Let's prove it in this guess. 8) I'm still not very adept at rendering images on graphics. :'( Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Coin-1 on June 28, 2021, 07:28:01 PM I am predicting the price of $40,975, so I will pick the 223rd box.
Honestly, I believe that on December 7, 2021, the BTC price will be higher than the number I have taken. Perhaps the good news will come from El Salvador or other countries, but I want to remain realistic, considering this price level to be fairer and more stable at the present time. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: STT on June 29, 2021, 01:49:37 AM TIL Cotton Candy was a 1904 world fair invention. I'm a great fan of long term dynamics and simplicity, the stock to flow guess of 110k might be correct in the long run but for a guess this year I wont be this bullish. We just saw how strongly the price can rise but we also know the price can have its moods and sustain lower for extended periods also. Iam still bullish but modestly so in this year or until price action wants to prove me wrong.
I dont have a high confidence guess to make as we are range bound for some weeks and yet to break significantly either way. I'll take the 50 week as some guidance as the bottom pricing has resembled that thanks to some main markets not trading the weekend BTC pricing. If I took the 200 day and extrapolated for end of year it'd be around 57k I think but 50 week is roughly 45k or box #228 I will guess $45,666 if thats valid and 2% from the nearest guess Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: NeuroticFish on June 29, 2021, 06:43:22 AM I thought that I should wait longer, for better chances (heh), then thought again: it's way too hard to predict, it's still kinda shoot in the dark, so here I am.
Thank you very much for the "contest" and for the mass summoning ;D My prediction is a mix of logic (we had 65k and the rise should be somewhat exponential after it restarts), wishful thinking and .. well, I've found a number I like: 128. Even more interesting, the box ID is made of the same digits: 281; it must be a sign ;D I've seen that the box was somewhat claimed, but not validated, so if I am allowed, here I am: Prediction: 128218$ (so I don't used other digits than 1,2,8) Box: 281. $127,943.46 - $130,502.32 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 29, 2021, 11:57:34 AM I will take box 225 because nothing has been selected yet I think this is exactly what I predicted. ($42,709.33) Your prediction gets truncated to $42,709, which falls in box 224, which is taken already:224. $42,042 Hhampuz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326404#msg57326404) Please $crypto$ adjust your prediction, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it. I did not reserve box 225 for you yet.I've seen that the box was somewhat claimed, but not validated, so if I am allowed It was claimed but not reserved yet. It's yours now. That's the risk of not reading carefully ;) See:281. $127,943.46 - $130,502.32 Please predict an amount, not a range. And add your thinking reasoning as required by El duderino_. Note that your box was not reserved yet, if it's still available when you edit your post, please send me a PM so I don't miss it.@all: Please check your entry in the Prediction overview (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325213#msg57325213). Some people (vapourminer, TheBeardedBaby, jojo69 and JimboToronto) still need to add required this part: I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hhampuz on June 29, 2021, 12:02:51 PM 224. $42,042 Hhampuz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326404#msg57326404) Please adjust your prediction, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it. I did not reserve box 225 for you yet.Done, I think :-[ Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 29, 2021, 12:32:45 PM Done, I think :-[ Oops, I can see how this was confusing. I quoted your entry to show $crypto$ that the box he picked was taken already. Luckily, you didn't change (https://loyce.club/archive/posts/5732/57326404.html) your prediction (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326404#msg57326404) so all is still good :)Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Dabs on June 29, 2021, 12:38:58 PM Perhaps the boxes should be updated to show truncated to whole dollars, inclusive. I wanted the next box but I got the one before it due to decimal points, but I guess I don't really mind. Picking a range instead of a number also makes sense ... I'll let you guys decide how it all works out in the end.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: ChuckBuck on June 29, 2021, 05:35:38 PM So glad I'm listed to join here again. It's been so long since I first joined and I can't even remember the result of the first time I joined. I wouldn't even know this thread existed if I wasn't on the list :D
Have many opinions that BTC will return to the area below 30k, and the current developments also make me feel quite worried about that. But as a price prediction, I want to look positive. I hope BTC will rise again in the near future :D So my prediction will be $65432 by the time you close :D Let's see how it's going on ;) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: jojo69 on June 29, 2021, 06:11:09 PM 262. $87,450 jojo69 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325293#msg57325293) pending thinking reasoning https://740466.smushcdn.com/1970131/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Blindly-Throwing-Darts-300x211.jpg?lossy=1&strip=1&webp=1 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: kurious on June 29, 2021, 06:54:50 PM Feeling wildly optimistic, possibly due to England beating Germany today.
However, I have a spreadsheet of all the Bitstamp data from the past few years, which I have been overlaying with prices and running data this cycle against the past cycle. I've tested data for death cross point, cycle bottom to top and of course i have been fine tuning as we go along. As this run looks like rhyming with 2013, frankly it's mostly been out of whack. That said, I still think the top of this cycle will be in December - and I still think institutional FOMO will do what we 'ordinary investors' did last time and take us very high. I humbly submit to his Dudeness my estimate - $315,000. Anything over 100K is great - but once we hit 100k, I don't think it will stop there and I do think things will get a little irrational and spike very high. I reckon December will be just a little bit... awesome. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Icygreen on June 29, 2021, 11:11:21 PM Thanks your dudeness! Always fun to play yer game!
https://i2.wp.com/dudeism.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/I-Like-Yer-Style-Dude_thumb.jpg?resize=239%2C244 $46,464 Reasoning: I think Bear market narrative will struggle to maintain a downward appearance starting from September. Guessing that $46,464 will be inside the final challenged range below 50K beginning in December. Once it breaks, I expect that train will have forever left the station, Q1 2022. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mocacinno on June 30, 2021, 07:35:35 AM I'd like to take box 274. ($111,382.48 - $113,610.12) with a guesstimation of $112.124
Why? Well, i do hope that after this bearish market, bitcoin will become bullish again, and we'll end somewhere in the vicinity of the double of the last ATH. Offcourse, my own reasons are that if BTC reaches this level, i could eliminate about half my holding and finally pay off my mortgage (while still being able to keep HODL'ing). On top of that, i don't think $112.124 is that far fetched... I mean, $112.124 is still plausible, it's several months away... But it's still a guess, anything can happen in the meantime... Thanks for the game :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on June 30, 2021, 11:31:20 AM Perhaps the boxes should be updated to show truncated to whole dollars, inclusive. I wanted the next box but I got the one before it due to decimal points, but I guess I don't really mind. Picking a range instead of a number also makes sense ... I'll let you guys decide how it all works out in the end. The cents is what came out of my spreadsheet. In the end, a lower box doesn't matter much, since your prediction is (almost) the same. Selecting entire boxes can be a problem if the winning box wasn't selected. That's why the closest number is better.my prediction will be $65432 This box is taken:247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) @ChuckBuck: please make a new prediction, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it.262. $87,450 jojo69 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325293#msg57325293) pending thinking reasoning https://740466.smushcdn.com/1970131/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Blindly-Throwing-Darts-300x211.jpg?lossy=1&strip=1&webp=1I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... There is some effort required, not just a random pick.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: jojo69 on June 30, 2021, 05:10:43 PM Perhaps the boxes should be updated to show truncated to whole dollars, inclusive. I wanted the next box but I got the one before it due to decimal points, but I guess I don't really mind. Picking a range instead of a number also makes sense ... I'll let you guys decide how it all works out in the end. The cents is what came out of my spreadsheet. In the end, a lower box doesn't matter much, since your prediction is (almost) the same. Selecting entire boxes can be a problem if the winning box wasn't selected. That's why the closest number is better.my prediction will be $65432 This box is taken:247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) @ChuckBuck: please make a new prediction, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it.262. $87,450 jojo69 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325293#msg57325293) pending thinking reasoning https://740466.smushcdn.com/1970131/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Blindly-Throwing-Darts-300x211.jpg?lossy=1&strip=1&webp=1I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... There is some effort required, not just a random pick.https://kbestmedia.com/assets/images/Cow%20Patty%20Bingo.png https://thecraftingchicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Pin-The-Tail-on-the-Donkey1.jpg https://cdn1.thecomeback.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/drawinghat.jpg https://www.games-eshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Roulette-seo-2.jpg Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Icygreen on June 30, 2021, 05:39:31 PM ^ LOL :D
E for effort but I think you're supposed to use math and science ;) https://spikeybits.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Rolling-Dice.jpg Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: UnDerDoG81 on June 30, 2021, 06:27:33 PM 124k Box 279
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: babo on July 01, 2021, 07:50:15 AM is hard do predict the correct value of bitcoin :)
but the game is nice I'm not kidding, so I'll try to make a serious prediction until recently I believed that bitcoin could touch 75k within this year, then I changed my mind thinking it could easily reach 100k now I am no longer so convinced of my latest prediction so I say 90001 $ 263. box Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: BIT-BENDER on July 01, 2021, 10:21:04 PM 227 : $44,300
Really after seeing the interesting, price road for three consecutive years one might get the feeling that it's just automatically channelled that way, we have already had $60k plus in the price, are we going to see that again this year? We might just some time before the last month of the year, but I think at the end of the year the price of Bitcoin would not be more than $45k or less than $40k the reason I choose the figures I did, but it just what I think and am excited to see how this goes, God willing. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on July 01, 2021, 10:22:35 PM @jojo…. It’s merit worthy though ::)
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: STT on July 02, 2021, 03:55:41 AM Jojo 65432 isnt a number on a roulette wheel. Your number was so high, it obviously wasn't a random distribution guess or you'd have placed -20k/+20k or similar around the current market price. You went way out of bounds, so just say why are you so bullish to believe we move this much in 5 months. Depreciating dollar or whatever would be valid since its a dollar price, elastic price rebound, rising inflation. Throw a dart at the finance/economy section of your newspaper wouldnt be far off tbh
^ LOL :D E for effort but I think you're supposed to use math and science ;) https://spikeybits.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Rolling-Dice.jpg Probability is maths, my old teacher would be upset to hear her studies and lessons were in vain. Its hundreds of years old valued subject to study, same guy who did pressure laws (pascals) formed the first laws of probability. Its used in engineering for real world outcomes I believe but especially important for finance vs risk outcome probability. Quote from: Pascal He introduced a primitive form of roulette and the roulette wheel in his search for a perpetual motion machine. Quote 200-days moving average at reasonable quality of smoothing should hit I just stuck a ruler on its steady trajectory and lined up December. Problem is theres alot of days ahead and 200 MA can alter considerably but we can presume trend continues as the last 200 days on average. By contest end the 200DMA will only include about 30 days of what is now showing in that average, so it'll be missing the whole start of 2021 the bullish bit. I took 50 week as its almost the whole year, less bullish now more averaged but should be higher in December then now.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 02, 2021, 09:50:51 AM I've updated the Prediction overview (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325213#msg57325213). Sorry for the delay, real life caught up with me.
Please check your entry in the list! If someone is missing or "pending", you need to post about it :) 124k Box 279 Sorry, you can't join because you have negative feedback, you're 146 earned Merit short (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/159398.html) (and you didn't even put any effort into your prediction).227 : $44,300 Sorry, this box is taken:227. $44,444 BTCLiz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325687#msg57325687) Please (@BIT-BENDER) make a new prediction. If you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: hugeblack on July 02, 2021, 11:48:10 AM 88,214 - 89,333
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: ivomm on July 02, 2021, 03:48:45 PM I may surprise you with my bearish prediciton, but I decided to use a random number generator (between 10K and 333K), and here is the first number I've got:
https://i.imgur.com/Exfrrer.png?1 So, my prediction is 211. $32339. But since I'm terrible at predictions, I guess the price will be above 100K by then. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 02, 2021, 06:06:22 PM 88,214 - 89,333 Please add a prediction, and the reasoning that got you there.I don't get it, that isn't even a valid box: 262. $87,824.33 - $89,580.80 263. $89,580.81 - $91,372.42 I decided to use a random number generator I haven't added your prediction yet. Allow me to quote El duderino_ and myself:I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... There is some effort required, not just a random pick.El duderino_ asked me to add my prediction too. Even though I don't like conflicts of interest (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340195.msg57106800#msg57106800), I'll make a prediction. I'll make it so bullish that if I'd win, the conflict of interest will be completely forgotten because every Bitcoin HODLer will be celebrating :D First, some graphs: https://loyce.club/other/rainbow2.png (source (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/)) The graph doesn't have enough pixels to highlight December 7th 2021, so the 6th is as close as I could get. Just ignore the amount in the popup, that's the pixel my mouse was on for the screenshot to draw a vertical line close to the Prediction date.Each halving shows a more or less similar pattern with a new ATH after a while. The peak between the second and third halving took longer than the peak between the first and second halving. The most recent peak didn't feel like a peak. Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) put it nicely: "It's too round at the top. It need to be pointy." Three months of moving sideways doesn't feel like that's all Bitcoin can do. If anything, it looks like what happened around May and June 2013: https://news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/e2fu99awuaqnuug.png (source: Colin Talks Crypto on Twitter, but I can't find the original post (https://cryptonews.best/btc-supporters-call-price-drop-a-mid-bull-run-break-2021-bitcoin-chart-pattern-similar-to-2013-bull-run/)) Based on this, the ATH in the previous months was just a "baby ATH". The big one is yet to come, it could be August/September (my wife's prediction), it could be December 7th (El duderino_'s date), or it could be early 2022. We know Bitcoin never goes up in dollar value in a straight line. The road to ATH is paved with drops: https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2021-01/344e704b-32fc-430b-b0bc-6f8f9503531b.png (source (https://cointelegraph.com/news/where-does-this-28-bitcoin-price-drop-rank-in-history-not-even-in-the-top-5)) That's why I keep telling myself it's going to be fine :PAnd then there is of course PlanB (https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD): https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5SkkUhWEAML2ND?format=png (source (https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1410933951741501442)) In short, the graphs above show why I believe Bitcoin's price could be (considerably) higher in December than it is now. As for how high, I'll go back to the rainbow graph. On December 6th 2021, the graph shows $178,845 for the dark red Maximum Bubble Territory. I'll take this as my prediction. @El duderino_: I can't in good conscience decide for myself if my prediction qualifies. Please let me know if I can add this one: 297. $178,845 LoyceV (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57370828#msg57370828) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: ivomm on July 02, 2021, 09:40:52 PM I decided to use a random number generator I haven't added your prediction yet. Allow me to quote El duderino_ and myself:I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... There is some effort required, not just a random pick.I think that the chances for any number between 10K and 333K are equal and I can defend each of it easily. Let's see... Now we are around 33K and clearly a large scale pump and dump is going on in a 20% range 30K-36K. Since the institutions like Grayscale stopped buying, at some point the support at 30K may be broken, heading for 20K-25K. However, after 5 months the damage will be repaired and the price will return to the current range. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Altryist on July 03, 2021, 10:32:12 AM Box 241 : $58,683
I expect the price to be even higher in December, but I will dwell on this forecast, since after growth in the fall, there may be a slight decline in early December. In the fall, the market will start to grow again and in 2022 we will see the continuation of bullrun. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on July 03, 2021, 11:25:21 AM Box: 329, $333,333
Precise reason why I chose that price-point, none, but I believe the current bull cycle will again surge, landing on a new ATH between $300,000 and $500,000. The billionaires are not done buying Bitcoin, and I believe they, like us plebs, know that buying NOW, is a front run to those buying THEN during the next halving. The Chinese Mining Exodus saw 60% of Bitcoin’s mining infrastructure shut down. The network remains as resilient, and robust, and it’s chuggling along producing block after block, going to the next halving. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vapourminer on July 03, 2021, 03:25:03 PM 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) and I quote: "crap i will add actual TA in a bit" ok so * well kinda anyway here is edited post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on July 03, 2021, 04:15:32 PM Don't know about you guys, since I don't really visit the threads here so much, but gotta say the past page or so has been highly entertaining. Great effort, but not necessarily what duderino could be looking for haha.
P.S. Rainbow chart! It's second time I've seen it but you do know a rainbow ends back down at the other end, right Loyce? =p What is the firesale period of the 6 Dec 2021 on this chart and when approx? I'd love to for the first time to have cash on hand for firesale;) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: malevolent on July 03, 2021, 04:21:41 PM $37000 is my number.
It's an optimistic guess, much like my previous one, mostly because it's a game, but I believe there could still be enough demand for some sideways action, and the only thing preventing that is a single tweet from Mr M, or another well-timed rumour of someone banning Bitcoin. ;) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LUCKMCFLY on July 03, 2021, 04:26:36 PM Thank you very much El duderino_,
My prediction for BTC is: $91000, My reasoning is based on the fact that the first week of December many emotions usually arise on the part of people, the demand increases and the supply decreases, and taking into account that now El Salvador adopted BTC and that Paraguay probably also adopts BTC, The price will start to grow faster as I strongly believe that this year BTC will hit $100k. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on July 03, 2021, 08:15:48 PM $37000 is my number. It's an optimistic guess, much like my previous one, mostly because it's a game, but I believe there could still be enough demand for some sideways action, and the only thing preventing that is a single tweet from Mr M, or another well-timed rumour of someone banning Bitcoin. ;) its almost pessimistic :P :P :P Though I honestly really don't know where we going, I think the higher ranks tbh, money printing, people & investor etc searching for places other as FIAT to store there wealth... many big companies etc exploring the BTC-world, more and more people understanding BTC is scarce and useful etc number of users keeps increasing and is still very low at the moment ut more and more adoption... Reaching 6 digits would be an honest price for BTC to be at eoy imho... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 04, 2021, 10:04:48 AM I've updated the Prediction overview (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325213#msg57325213). Please check your entry in the list! If someone is missing or "pending", you need to post about it :) Should I start removing the pending entries to free up their spots? @TheBeardedBaby @jojo69 @JimboToronto: you've all had more than a week already to add your reasoning for those predictions. Update: El duderino_ says yes (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57382774#msg57382774). I've removed those 3 pending entries. All of you can still join before entries close (on 10-07(July)-2021 13.00 CET (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325206#msg57325206)). Please make a new post if you do. P.S. Rainbow chart! It's second time I've seen it but you do know a rainbow ends back down at the other end, right Loyce? =p The rainbow is a metaphore ;) It's only used because of the colors, and this isn't going to be a bow, it looks more like logarithmic growth.Quote What is the firesale period of the 6 Dec 2021 on this chart and when approx? I'd love to for the first time to have cash on hand for firesale;) There is no "when" in the graph, it's called a Fire Sale whenever the price reaches the dark blue zone (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/).My prediction for BTC is: $91000, Sorry, that box is taken. Please make a new prediction, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it. $37000 is my number. its almost pessimistic :P :P :PIt's an optimistic guess Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on July 04, 2021, 11:36:08 AM I think it’s a good idea…
Removing them which fail to understand the small effort/request…. Giving away should be awesome and only a small thing is asked to participate … I don’t ask much … but it has to be fair for everyone Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: bitmover on July 04, 2021, 12:40:49 PM First of all, thank you El duderino_ and LoyceV for such amazing event.
I want to participate and follow the rules, explaning my prediction and the reason behind it, but that's very hard for me. I am not a trader and I don't like TA either. I tried to trade a few times in my life and I only got stressed and lost money lol. What I really do is to make a decision to buy an asset which I believe it is worth having it. If for some reason I think that asset is not worth holding anymore, I just sell it. Usually not all at once... I sold a some of my bitcoin stash when we were about 50-65k, a little each month (in Brazil cryptocurrency are tax free if we sell only 6k USD per month, and that is what i did for a few months). I also sold some ethereum and exchanged a few eth to btc in this deep because the ratio was good. I think those were good decisions but I wouldn't call that a "swing trade" becuase I hold those assets for years and years.... But I will try to make my prediction. First of all, I will not sell significant part of my Bitcoin stash this year, only if we reach 100,000 (which I believe is highly unlikely). I am not selling because I believe the movement is still upwards in long term (more than 5 years). I was taking a look at some trading view ideas (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) and I particularly liked this one. Then I made a few changes and made my own to Dec 7. The minium price there would be 60k! lol, that's quite good to me. https://i.imgur.com/0J6VQIi.png Based on that, I will choose my favorite number: 69,200 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: xandry on July 04, 2021, 07:29:19 PM $116,195
Just random number between 14000 and 330000 generated by randstuff.ru Predicting the exact price of bitcoin is like guessing on a coffee grounds, so my way of knowing the future course is about the same - I use a number generator in a range of all the variations of previous participants. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 05, 2021, 07:50:29 AM Based on that, I will choose my favorite number: Which, unfortunately, falls in a box that is taken already. Please try again :)69,200 Just random number Sorry, just a random number is not enough. El duderino_ wants to read your thinking reasoning (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325312#msg57325312) and see a small effort (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57382774#msg57382774). Please add this, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it.5 days left to join: -You can give your price prediction until: 10-07(July)-2021 13.00 CET Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Swordsoffreedom on July 05, 2021, 03:41:58 PM Weekly Time Frame is super Bullish but I think it will be terminated by Monthly TF. The monthly RSI is not looking strong enough.
I'm ultra confused to guess which direction the market will move. FUD surrounds us like a Kraken. Don't have enough earned merit to join. whatever, Best of luck everyone.. :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on July 06, 2021, 01:30:29 PM Loyce … no pending needed for your guess 8) :D
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on July 06, 2021, 04:28:19 PM Well I wanted to give the dude a decent read for my prediction as he has certainly earned a bit of effort for his selfless contributions but I am completely baffled by the last few years so all I can do is SOMA away another swing and a miss. :D
With that being said I think composite man has been growing in power these last years since the 2017 run-up and is pulling a fakeout atm trying to accumulate for the next Bullrun. I think the wyckoff pattern is a real thing but it is not written in stone and I think those that try to trade by using it are going to get burned and left out in the cold. Composite Man knows you know and will use that knowledge against you, he is a shadowwy figure currently composed of your adversaries in the form of the likes of Goldmann ball sacks and Morgan Stanley (no relation to Paul). #HoldersUnaffected! Ohh yeah my guess is $66,666 murikan. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 06, 2021, 06:07:53 PM $129,195 Your coffee grounds landed on a box that's taken already. Please try again, and check the list to make sure it's available. If you edit your post, PM me so I don't miss it.Loyce … no pending needed for your guess 8) :D Thanks, that means I'm in :D@bitmover: did you see my previous post? Your box is taken. After the effort you put into your prediction, it would be a waste if you don't add a prediction that's still available. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: theymos on July 06, 2021, 10:21:23 PM My record is pretty terrible on these, so I might as well give an extremely specific prediction and maximize how wrong I am.
July USD monetary conditions are tightening substantially. Helicopter money programs are running out, M2 growth is slowing, and now the Fed is vacuuming up tons of excess money via reverse repo. This will suck money out of speculative areas such as BTC. The US debt ceiling will be hit, and Congress won't do anything about it for a while, but this won't cause an immediate issue. CPI will be at expectations. Growth and employment will be worse than expectations. Stocks will be flat. Some people are worried about the GBTC lockups expiring in the middle of this month, but I don't think that this will have much effect at all. If someone created GBTC shares just to arbitrage the premium, then they would've hedged their exposure to BTC; when they sell/redeem their GBTC shares, unwinding their hedge should make their net impact on the market neutral. If someone created GBTC shares because they wanted to be long BTC, then they knew the risks, they probably intended BTC to be a permanent part of their portfolio, and they're probably not going to exit their BTC position at a huge loss just because they now can. BTC price: $30k August A wave of anti-crypto regulatory attention/action will be announced in the US and elsewhere with ransomware used as a fear tactic, but this will be too vague & insubstantial to have more than a short-term price impact. (Regulatory crackdowns could be very damaging to the ecosystem and hurt the BTC price long-term, but I don't think that anything like this will take effect or severely hurt sentiment before the end of the year.) CPI will be historically high, but below expectations. Growth and employment will be worse than expectations. Stocks will be somewhat down. BTC price: $28k September The US's inability to issue debt will cause some sort of moderate-severity market hiccup, such as a shortage of collateral causing rates to spike up. This will be mostly-resolved through some sort of emergency Fed action, but it will shake the market's confidence. Simultaneously, as helicopter money programs have fully wound down and bank accounts will have gotten much more empty than previously, people will start realizing that they need money. But the job market will become tight very quickly due to the stampede of people looking for jobs and a significant slowdown in economic activity by this point. Because they need money, and also due to concern about the market hiccup mentioned in the previous paragraph, people will sell their liquid assets such as bonds, stocks, and BTC. As the market goes down from this, it will start a cycle of panic selling. There will be a 10% drop in the stock market and a 20% drop in the BTC price, though about half of this will be recovered in a couple of weeks. The Fed will change policy to achieve maximally-loose monetary conditions; this is bullish for BTC. From this point forward, CPI, growth, and employment will all be below expectations each month. BTC price: $25k October The Democrats will enact a 15% global minimum corporate tax, increase the US corporate tax rate to 25%, and do Biden's proposed capital gains tax increase but with a rate of 28% instead of the proposed 43.4% and without Biden's proposed retroactivity. This is slightly negative for BTC (there will be some selling to front-run the tax increase), and very bad for growth stocks. Despite the prospect of infrastructure dollars, the stock market will on the whole drop 5% immediately and then start a slow downward slide lasting many months, but BTC will not drop much. BTC will look attractive compared to other assets, especially to the many institutions who have already been eyeing it for a while but have been scared to dip their toes in. Like gold, it will be seen as a hedge against future low growth. Growth stocks also perform well in low-growth periods, but they will be negatively impacted by the global minimum corporate tax; BTC pays no corporate tax. Even though inflation will not actually be especially high at this point, there will still be a lot of fear of inflation due to all of the money-printing, and BTC will also be seen as a hedge against inflation. BTC will have low correlation with markets in at least the latest drop, and the price will look attractive. Robinhood will start to offer very attractive interest on BTC and other crypto holdings, similar to BlockFi - way more than you can get with any USD savings account. Due to all of these factors, BTC sentiment will turn very bullish. BTC price: $40k November A BTC ETF will finally be approved. Pretty much everyone in the financial world thinks that this is long overdue, and the number of applicants keeps growing. A Bitcoin ETF would probably attract a billion dollars in assets within the following 12 months, and this direct inflow alongside the indirect boost in sentiment from the approval will add napalm to the already-hot BTC market. CPI will fall below 2% as supply issues are mostly cleaned up and the worsening consumer balance sheet hurts demand. This hurts the narrative of buying BTC because of inflation, but this is only a small part of BTC's value proposition, and people will still worry about inflation even if it's low at the moment. Long-term, I think that the macro environment is favorable to BTC whenever wider economic growth is low, regardless of the level of inflation. December 7 price: $72,046 (box 251) (I might've gone a few boxes higher, but they were taken. This seems to be a popular price range!) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on July 07, 2021, 10:41:51 AM Thanks to Mansa Musa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansa_Musa) of bitcointalk aka El duderino_ for your awesome games.
I'm very bad at it so i will cheat and get help from the boss i mean google and here's my R&D 1. longforecast says December 2021 end of the month $28614 (damn that's too low I didn't like it) BTC to USD predictions for December 2021. In the beginning price at 24667 Dollars. Maximum price $30617, minimum price $24667. The average for the month $27141. Bitcoin price forecast at the end of the month $28614, change for December 16.0%. 2. According to a Finder.com survey respondents said BTC would reach an average price $51,951 and Citibank analyst Tom Fitzpatrick noted that Bitcoin would hit $318,000 (wow those are some numbers we looking for, I'm loving it) As for 2021 Bitcoin price predictions, the survey respondents said BTC would reach an average price of $51,951 per coin. In November 2020, Citibank analyst Tom Fitzpatrick noted that Bitcoin would hit $318,000. https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/4-BTCUSD-prediction.jpg?q=75&s=6d99f3d1421615c18859a68fd62a3833 This analysis is via liteforex (https://www.liteforex.com/blog/?author=72). https://i.imgur.com/mbsfNo0.png and average comes to $68,600 from liteforex 3. coinpriceforecast is also bearish if I say so, and 2021 year end price is predicted to be $36,578 Quote Bitcoin price started in 2021 at $29,048.39. Today, Bitcoin traded at $34,811.12, so the price increased by 20% from the beginning of the year. The forecasted Bitcoin price at the end of 2021 is $36,578 - and the year to year change +26%. The rise from today to year-end: +5%. 4. tradingbeasts is also on the lower of the spectrum with average price to be $33,577 The Bitcoin price is forecasted to reach $33,313.430 by the beginning of December 2021. The expected maximum price is $41,971.629, minimum price $28,540.708. The Bitcoin price prediction for the end of the month is $33,577.303. https://i.imgur.com/TmJ6C3K.png 5. Ok last but not the least Pishevar has called for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2021 via Twitter. https://i.imgur.com/5Tpch8b.png So now I have 5 numbers (or six) prices, what can I do with it I don't know :p 1. longforecast $28614 2. liteforex survey $51,951, liteforex analysis $68,600 3. coinpriceforecast $36,578 4. tradingbeasts $33,577 5. Pishevar $100,000 Keep in view above analysis from different sources, I'm predicting BTC price to be $53,220, that falls in box 236. range $52,482.00 - $53,531.63. Since I'm late and boxes from 236 to 242 are all taken. So I have to select the nearest available 235 or 243. Call me proudhon but I'm So I'm selecting $52,000 to be the BTC Price and box 235. $51,452.94 - $52,481.99 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Globb0 on July 07, 2021, 11:00:09 AM Requesting - 225. $42,209.33 - $43,053.51
Not a lot of slots my bad. :) https://i.imgur.com/yrZJ6Re.jpg Cheers hero Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on July 07, 2021, 11:33:37 AM I have updated my previous price ticker with Dec 2021 predictions.
https://shahzadafzal.github.io/bitciontalk-summer-game-winner-dec-2021.html https://i.imgur.com/krE22s8.png Previous Jun 2021 game result still available at https://shahzadafzal.github.io/bitciontalk-summer-game.html Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: xhomerx10 on July 07, 2021, 12:28:47 PM SOMA
The price will be $64 935 which puts me in box 246. $63,975.26 - $65,254.76 If it's not already taken. Thanks Mr .El duderino_!! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: d_eddie on July 07, 2021, 04:27:22 PM (EDITED - First and second choices were taken)
I predict $120,666 (slot 278. $120,563.98 - $122,975.25) SOMA dynamics? July-August Slow summer, with some bearish FUD under the spotlight (Grayscale unlock, China ban banana jam, etc.). Meanwhile, hodlers are silently, slowly, unconspicuously accumulating. From mid August onwards the price will settle in the 40k's. Early September we'll start to see the buying pressure move the price a little. Hashrate climbing up again will be plain to see. October to mid November will be bulls over the prairie, and a retrace in late November to early December will bring us back to... what, like 75k? End of year will be fireworks as it should. My prediction could be a bit early, meaning I expect my price to be met only by Dec 15 or so, right before the blow off beyond 200k. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 07, 2021, 05:46:16 PM The price will be $64 935 Please explain how you got to this prediction, as requested by El duderino_:I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... To participate there MUST be ...... Requesting - 225. $42,209.33 - $43,053.51 You need to predict a number, not a range. Also, I don't think posting just a graph qualifies for El duderino_'s request (see above). Please explain how you got to this prediction, and if you edit your post, make sure I don't overlook it (by sending me a PM).$115,555 Sorry, this box is taken. Please try again (may I suggest a tad more bullish, https://i.imgflip.com/5fqs8g.jpg (source (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/Afraid-To-Ask-Andy)) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: aoluain on July 07, 2021, 07:23:34 PM Box 268. please with a prediction of $98,989
I'm thinking from this Friday we will see a move happening, retail investment will start to increase, more so in the 4th quarter as memories of 2019 take hold, but $100,000 will provide massive sell pressure. This is just how i'm thinking, nothing technical. I'm not known for my predictions but thanks to @El duderino_ for the game Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: irfan_pak10 on July 07, 2021, 08:09:18 PM if Elon dies today the price will be around ~$70,000 in dec 2021 ;D
Elon please don't die I have invested in doge :D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: xhomerx10 on July 08, 2021, 05:28:22 AM The price will be $64 935 Please explain how you got to this prediction, as requested by El duderino_:I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen... To participate there MUST be ...... Requesting - 225. $42,209.33 - $43,053.51 You need to predict a number, not a range. Also, I don't think posting just a graph qualifies for El duderino_'s request (see above). Please explain how you got to this prediction, and if you edit your post, make sure I don't overlook it (by sending me a PM).$115,555 Sorry, this box is taken. Please try again (may I suggest a tad more bullish, https://i.imgflip.com/5fqs8g.jpg (source (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/Afraid-To-Ask-Andy)) According to confirmed sources, maths and sciences, El duderino_ is going to give me $5000 US for winning this prediction game. Therefore the price of bitcoin will have to be $64,935 on that day. Will this suffice? SOMA = Straight Out of My Abacus. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Vispilio on July 08, 2021, 05:56:33 AM Just saw this I would like Box 262 please ;), for a BTC price of 88,888 USD.
I might have bet slightly lower, but all those boxes are taken so... as for reasoning new capital moves quickly to low mcap crypto ventures whenever Bitcoin gains momentum, so this time the rise might not be as exponential as the previous 4 year cases... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on July 08, 2021, 12:39:37 PM If it is not too late, I would like to pick $12,200.00. If it is too late, I would like to pick $12,200 and make my prediction for fun.
Reasoning: The FED currently has a super accommodative monetary policy that is resulting in rampant speculation. Banks are buying up housing left and right, sight unseen, meme stocks are skyrocketing for no reason other than some people with extra money in their bank account think it would be funny to make their prices go up, and so on... The above monetary policy is also causing inflation and a lot of it. It is somewhat difficult to track inflation due to distortions caused by the lockdowns and the pandemic last year, however, two-year inflation is currently similar to that of when central banks are in the middle of raising short term interest rates, while the FED currently has short term interest rates at nearly the maximum low, and is taking action to lower long term interest rates via QE. There will become a point at which inflation becomes too high and the FED will have to respond by stopping QE and raising interest rates, and I think that time will be soon. Once interest rates start to rise sufficiently, money will start to flow out of the speculative assets mentioned above. I believe this will also mean that money will flow out of crypto. To put things in context, speculative stocks such as GME should fall 95%+, and altcoins such as DOGE (that was supposed to be a joke) should fall by 99%+. There are also things such as the eviction moratorium and mortgage forbearance programs that are allowing people to avoid paying for housing costs in masse. I think a decent number of people are "investing" money they should be spending on housing on speculative assets, which would include crypto (including bitcoin). Once these programs end, people will need to pay back rent/mortgage payments, and will be forced to sell their speculative assets, regardless of fundementials. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Globb0 on July 08, 2021, 01:40:16 PM Requesting - 225. $42,209.33 - $43,053.51 You need to predict a number, not a range. Also, I don't think posting just a graph qualifies for El duderino_'s request (see above). Please explain how you got to this prediction, and if you edit your post, make sure I don't overlook it (by sending me a PM).Requesting - 225. $42,209.33 - $43,053.51 Predicting the price at $43000.00 The chart shows how I feel the market will move using forecast ma lines and support resistance. Thanks for letting me know Globb0 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 08, 2021, 05:45:14 PM $98,989 Sorry, you can't join. You're 8 earned Merit (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/965440.html) short.if Elon dies today the price will be around ~$70,000 in dec 2021 ;D I'm not sure if this is your prediction (I think you're a tad short on explaining how you got there), but $70,000 is taken already.Feel free to try again :) Just saw this I would like Box 262 please ;), for a BTC price of 88,888 USD. If it is not too late, I would like to pick $12,200.00. Your entries are currently pending El duderino_'s (dis)approval because of your negative feedback.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Philipma1957cellphone on July 08, 2021, 05:56:26 PM $98,989 Sorry, you can't join. You're 8 earned Merit (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/965440.html) short.if Elon dies today the price will be around ~$70,000 in dec 2021 ;D I'm not sure if this is your prediction (I think you're a tad short on explaining how you got there), but $70,000 is taken already.Feel free to try again :) Just saw this I would like Box 262 please ;), for a BTC price of 88,888 USD. If it is not too late, I would like to pick $12,200.00. Your entries are currently pending El duderino_'s (dis)approval because of your negative feedback.If I go to my main account and give aoulian 8 merits can he join? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on July 08, 2021, 11:43:46 PM El duderino, congratulations, I'm glad a thread of this kind is now in the relevant section, but even more I'm glad that long-term BTC price prediction is again a hotly debated topic. Anyone looking to bargain, or buy some Bitcoins, is truly in the right place. ;)
So, on December 7, 2021, 1 BTC will cost $ 24,317. [Well, everyone knows that on a global scale, the price of BTC does not rise by manipulation]
Therefore, I suppose we will need at least half a year to recover from the Chinese news, although as you all know, in the long term this is good for Bitcoin (by the way, we returned to the 95,300 Ph/s mark). Although the general price trend will invariably grow, we still do not have enough broad masses with a fundamentally new mentality (the younger generation of investors is still growing up). By the same to the same, we all should not forget about the syndrome "Musk", which sooner or later (six months or a year) will lead to mass hysteria based on disappointment (Doge), which will undoubtedly affect BTC. To all of the above, I would add the fact that, judging by the reports of this year, there is no obvious flow of money from ETF gold to ETF Bitcoin (outside the USA), so it is unlikely that the phrase in the spirit of "Bitcoin & Gold [...]" will be relevant until December. I also see that Theymos briefly mentioned ETFs, but unfortunately I disagree with him, at least it won't be this year for sure ... If it happened, it would be really great news, but the reality is that acceptance will become a precedent for challenging previously denied ETF requests. And, by the way, the fact that after Biden took office, the head of the SEC was replaced does not change anything. Not to mention the fact that Joe Biden's presidential campaign was sponsored by banks that are not yet ready for radical changes, (for changes that will lead to the emergence of a society of cashless money). This is almost the same if representatives of the oil and gas sector lobbied for the interests of green energy. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: aoluain on July 09, 2021, 06:42:29 AM $98,989 Sorry, you can't join. You're 8 earned Merit (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/965440.html) short.Well thats typical of myself for overlooking the most important word in the required criteria to enter. "Earned". I saw "250 Merit" apologies for the oversight on my behalf. @Philipma1957cellphone thank you for the offer, i appreciate that although I'm not sure why you would want to do that 😯👍 If by any chance my entry stands and I actually win, I will split the reward! but someone will have to remind me of this announcement, I have an information retention issue. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Mbitr on July 09, 2021, 07:09:02 AM Wow , another great competition- thanks AGAIN dude :)
$51,000 - Mbitr please WHY ? I’ll be focusing my trading and figures on this guy :) https://hackaday.com/2021/07/07/hamster-trades-crypto-better-than-you/ Goooo MR Gox :) https://i.imgur.com/Nt4j7x2.jpg https://twitter.com/mrgoxx?s=21 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on July 09, 2021, 07:12:29 AM The predictions here are so depressing, I'm sure the fact that this question is asked during a downtime sideways accumulation phase played a very important role in it :D
Anyways let me put my 2 satoshis in by repeating the same number I've been predicting for over a year now. To find in a category it would be #341 at price of $420,000. As for reason I'm just going to post this chart here which I made a while ago: https://i.imgur.com/EBAvJRD.jpg Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 09, 2021, 08:53:50 AM If I go to my main account and give aoulian 8 merits can he join? Since aoluain (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57409334#msg57409334) doesn't look like a Merit abuser, I was hoping someone would bump him up to Hero Member. It happened already, so I've added his prediction to the list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325213#msg57325213).Just saw this I would like Box 262 please ;), for a BTC price of 88,888 USD. If it is not too late, I would like to pick $12,200.00. Your entries are currently pending El duderino_'s (dis)approval because of your negative feedback.One day left to join: -You can give your price prediction until: 10-07(July)-2021 13.00 CET If your entry is not in the Prediction overview (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325213#msg57325213), please post about it before the deadline :)Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mu_enrico on July 09, 2021, 10:24:44 AM Can I book this one:
Quote 188. $20,286.27 - $20,691.98 It's based on my straight line prediction (tm) ;D around ~$15.9k would be the hard support: https://i.ibb.co/nCYzjTS/rocky.jpg And then I add my lucky number to the equation, to get it above the line but still in the range. Thanks! Edit: Ooopss, my bad, my prediction: $20,500 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: bct_ail on July 09, 2021, 10:44:37 AM Please give me Box #245. My prediction is $63,000.
Why? Because I wish it. 63k before the lift-off to 122k before new years eve... To be honest: I have no idea. I'm just a hodler who believes in a good (bitcoin)future. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 09, 2021, 11:08:17 AM Can I book this one: You need to predict a number, not a range. Please add it, and let me know if you edit your post so I don't overlook it.Quote 188. $20,286.27 - $20,691.98 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mu_enrico on July 09, 2021, 11:28:39 AM You need to predict a number, not a range. Please add it, and let me know if you edit your post so I don't overlook it. Done! Hopefully all good for now.$20,500 it is 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: A-Bolt on July 09, 2021, 02:03:28 PM $62,000
Please add how you got there. I just chose a random free box.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 09, 2021, 05:54:17 PM $62,000 Please add how you got there. This is required (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325312#msg57325312) to join.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: 1miau on July 09, 2021, 06:07:05 PM Nice giveaway again, I'll pick box 204. ($27,848.70 - $28,405.66)
Price 28,000 USD per BTC Since Bitcoin didn't recover much recently, I'm expecting Bitcoin to drop below 30k USD again, reaching very soon a bottom of 20k (last ATH), which will most likely result in a new sideways trend in a range between 20k - 30k until we see a new bull run starting in late 2021 / continuing in Q1 2022 like exactly 1 year before. And on December 7, 2021, one BTC will have a price of 28,000 USD. :) That would be my guess. Fundamentals are still strong, so possibly BTC will recover sooner but with a low bet I expect my chances to be better. :P Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: lepbagong on July 09, 2021, 06:57:27 PM Actually, if there will be a correction this year, it will certainly occur at the beginning of the year, but it doesn't happen. even reached renewable ATH a few times, obviously this was beyond prediction as it shouldn't have risen so high by then. although in the end there was a very deep correction and now it is quite stable with the price at the current range. My prediction is that starting Q3 will increase and eventually renewable ATH will form again, so I think $100K is not impossible to achieve. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: 0x256 on July 09, 2021, 09:18:05 PM Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: hosseinimr93 on July 09, 2021, 10:36:11 PM I still believe that the 2017 bull run will be repeated.
1 year and 2 months have passed since the third having and the price has increased from 8700 dollar to 34000 dollar. This is 490% increase. At the date of second halving (July 9, 2016), the price was 650 dollar. 1 year and 2 months later (August 9, 2017), the price was 3300 dollar. This was 507% increase. As calculated above, till now everything has gone as expected. December 7, 2021 will be 1 year and 7 months after the the third halving. In 1 year and 7 months after the second halving, the price increased by 1360%. Assuming that the price will increase by 1360% after the third halving, the price on December 7, 2021 should be 109,600 dollar which is in box 273. The box 273 has been already taken and the nearest available box is number 271. My prediction is 105,000 dollar. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 10, 2021, 08:30:00 AM $100K Sorry, you can't join because you're 235 earned Merit (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/1047634.html) short.195. ($23,302.54 - $23,768.58) You need to predict an amount, not a range.2 hours 30 minutes left to join! If you're prediction is not in the Prediction overview (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325213#msg57325213) yet (or if I made a mistake), you need to post about it NOW :) Prediction overview 158. $12,200 PrimeNumber7 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57413633#msg57413633) 171. $14,687 wwzsocki (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330982#msg57330982) 175. $15,800 sabotag3x (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325588#msg57325588) 188. $20,500 mu_enrico (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420406#msg57420406) 192. $22,000 Ratimov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423602#msg57423602) 193. $22,580 Buchi-88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325859#msg57325859) 197. $24,317 icopress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57417588#msg57417588) 200. $26,242 Charles-Tim (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325430#msg57325430) 204. $28,000 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423807#msg57423807) 207. $29,792 Captain-Cryptory (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57353269#msg57353269) 208. $30,746 bakasabo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336861#msg57336861) 209. $31,342 poptok1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325289#msg57325289) 210. $31,500 bullrun2020bro (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57332159#msg57332159) 211. $32,339 ivomm (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57369987#msg57369987) (second part (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57371778#msg57371778)) 214. $34,200 Smartprofit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328153#msg57328153) 216. $35,500 Koal-84 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325757#msg57325757) 217. $36,700 soliton (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57335091#msg57335091) 218. $37,000 malevolent (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57377556#msg57377556) 219. $38,000 sheenshane (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326183#msg57326183) 222. $39,997 $crypto$ (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57339262#msg57339262) 223. $40,975 Coin-1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57339532#msg57339532) 224. $42,042 Hhampuz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326404#msg57326404) 225. $43,000 Globb0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405873#msg57405873) (second part (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57414038#msg57414038)) 226. $43,210 o_e_l_e_o (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57327741#msg57327741) 227. $44,444 BTCLiz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325687#msg57325687) 228. $45,666 STT (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57341142#msg57341142) 229. $46,464 Icygreen (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57349651#msg57349651) 230. $47,500 goldkingcoiner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57333260#msg57333260) 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331708#msg57331708) 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) 245. $63,000 bct_ail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420530#msg57420530) 246. $64,935 xhomerx10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411348#msg57411348) 247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) 248. $66,666 Hueristic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57401039#msg57401039) 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) 252. $72,435 cygan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331109#msg57331109) 253. $73,500 yhiaali3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326475#msg57326475) 254. $74,991 willi9974 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325414#msg57325414) 255. $77,217 witcher_sense (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325339#msg57325339) 256. $78,483 -doubleU- (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330154#msg57330154) 257. $80,000 AlcoHoDL (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325612#msg57325612) 258. $82,212 MinoRaiola (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57332592#msg57332592) 259. $84,400 SFR10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328194#msg57328194) 260. $86,000 LFC_Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325271#msg57325271) 261. $86,888 psycodad (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328599#msg57328599) 262. $88,888 Vispilio (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411469#msg57411469) 263. $90,001 babo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57359756#msg57359756) 264. $93,013 Nomad88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325671#msg57325671) (first post in 5 months) 265. $94,199 nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330220#msg57330220) 266. $96,000 tranthidung (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331245#msg57331245) 267. $97,988 Bthd (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325886#msg57325886) 268. $98,989 aoluain (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57409334#msg57409334) 269. $102,345 buwaytress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325341#msg57325341) 271. $105,000 hosseinimr93 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57425002#msg57425002) 272. $108,633 Upgrade00 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325450#msg57325450) 273. $110,262 fillippone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325365#msg57325365) 274. $112,124 mocacinno (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57351746#msg57351746) 275. $114,500 strawbs (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326478#msg57326478) 276. $116,195 xandry (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57386324#msg57386324) 277. $120,001 Wekkel (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328363#msg57328363) 278. $120,666 d_eddie (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57408244#msg57408244) 281. $128,218 NeuroticFish (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57342417#msg57342417) 282. $132,000 Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57335331#msg57335331) 286. $143,220 HairyMaclairy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329667#msg57329667) 289. $152,904 Dabs (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326362#msg57326362) 297. $178,845 LoyceV (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57370828#msg57370828) 299. $183,000 DeathAngel (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329997#msg57329997) 309. $225,309 Arriemoller (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326208#msg57326208) 321. $288,000 marcus_of_augustus (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325416#msg57325416) 324. $300,500 CryptopreneurBrainboss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325683#msg57325683) 326. $315,000 kurious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57348451#msg57348451) 329. $333,333 Wind_FURY (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375385#msg57375385) 341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: 0x256 on July 10, 2021, 08:57:41 AM 195. ($23,302.54 - $23,768.58) You need to predict an amount, not a range.$23,500 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: akhjob on July 10, 2021, 12:09:27 PM I'm not sure if I'm eligible to join this giveaway. But since I got notified by LoyceV's post, I'm giving it a shot.
My prediction: 40,476$ Reason: I'm not a TA guy, but I have been reading that Bitcoin is following wyckoff accumulation pattern. So I'm expecting that bitcoin would start pumping insanely after July 21st due to the Jack-Elon meet. August should be a very bullish month for BTC to reach a new ATH, then the distribution phase should be in September and October. By December, I expect BTC to be around 40k. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 10, 2021, 12:40:52 PM 221. $ 39,523 :) Sorry, you don't qualify to join. You're 32 earned Merit (https://loyce.club/Merit/history/234281.html) short.I'm not sure if I'm eligible to join this giveaway. Unfortunately, you're too late. No more new entries:-You can give your price prediction until: 10-07(July)-2021 13.00 CET Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: akhjob on July 10, 2021, 12:42:49 PM ^ It's ok. Good luck everyone :)
It's better to lock the thread if no new entries are accepted. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on July 10, 2021, 03:49:17 PM It's better to lock the thread if no new entries are accepted. Why should the thread be locked? It is not necessary, that does not mean there wouldn't be constructive discussions speculating about what Bitcoin price can be before the specified date. Leaving this thread unlocked is better, any quality post will be welcomed imo, but just that no more new entries. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on July 10, 2021, 04:06:11 PM It's better to lock the thread if no new entries are accepted. I think it would be fun to continue to discuss the price, and where everyone thinks it is going between now and December. No one can change their predictions, but anyone can change their opinions and thought processes, and it would be fun to discuss where the price of bitcoin is going :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 10, 2021, 04:21:23 PM Why should the thread be locked? It is not necessary, that does not mean there wouldn't be constructive discussions speculating about what Bitcoin price can be before the specified date. Leaving this thread unlocked is better, any quality post will be welcomed imo, but just that no more new entries. Exactly. That's why it's in Speculation.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on July 13, 2021, 10:18:55 PM Another BIG thx to Loyce for helping me out on this one
:D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: ImThour on July 14, 2021, 06:57:10 AM $112,000 - I'm just 6 Merits less for participating, so please consider if possible. :D
EDIT: Just noticed I'm way too late, sorry for posting. Will keep my comment here just to see how I did. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on July 16, 2021, 09:45:08 AM When the December price outcome is known, I believe pooyah87 and I can claim the top 2 bonehead predictions in this contest if Bitcoin indeed crashes to lower lows. I actually had hoped to be Bonehead No.1. Hahaha.
Good luck! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on July 26, 2021, 05:30:25 AM How would this game looks like….. if I had released it in a pump like this one …?
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on July 26, 2021, 05:45:20 AM How would this game looks like….. if I had released it in a pump like this one …? My $178,845 still looks pretty good :DTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on July 26, 2021, 05:52:02 AM I actually had hoped to be Bonehead No.1. Hahaha. HAHA. Never O0Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on July 26, 2021, 06:05:15 AM How would this game looks like….. if I had released it in a pump like this one …? My $178,845 still looks pretty good :DI noted in my prediction post that I believe that QE is causing short-term speculation and that inflation will cause both short-term interest rates and QE to be sharply curtailed, both of which should cause sharp pullbacks in speculative assets. This does not affect my opinion as to the long term direction for the price of bitcoin. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on July 26, 2021, 06:26:05 AM How would this game looks like….. if I had released it in a pump like this one …? Then there will be more boneheaded predictions made, at boneheaded prices more than mine. Haha. BUT, with Bitcoin being Bitcoin, if indeed this surge is THE ONE, in 4 weeks it can surge to $75,000. That’s just 4 weeks. Then by December 6 digits is attainable. But how high? I believe 10x from $30,000 summer dip is just right. 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 02, 2021, 11:35:04 AM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…?
Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on August 02, 2021, 03:53:07 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Well to be honest... I did seem this way... if I had to predict it now and keeping the last week in view obviously my prediction would have been much different. The week when I did my prediction (1 Jul - 8 Jul) vs the current week (27 Jul - 02 Aug) https://i.imgur.com/Vhq1HVB.png https://i.imgur.com/nqxk6ks.png It's clear the current trend is much different and more bullish. It looks like bull market is here sooner than expected and this month August might bring back or even break ATH. In current scenario I would have predicted something $80k or may be higher. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on August 02, 2021, 05:34:33 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? I chose $26242 because the price of bitcoin is not easy to predict, there can be bull back when someone is expecting bull run, the price in December is just a guess because it can be otherwise. But I am still thinking if Bitcoin can reach $$63729 again which is the all-time-high. I am expecting whales and institutions next big move to be during 2024 halving because they know how people can fomo during the time which can result to significant and abrupt price in the uptrend direction. But, as of now, I think/guess that the price can not reach all-time-high, but there can be bull bear market within $20000 and $$64000, but to guess the exact price between that range at certain time will still only be a guess if correct. This makes me still choose $26,242.Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 06, 2021, 07:26:11 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on August 06, 2021, 09:56:56 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Specifically to these bears below - Prediction overview 158. $12,200 PrimeNumber7 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57413633#msg57413633) 171. $14,687 wwzsocki (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330982#msg57330982) 175. $15,800 sabotag3x (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325588#msg57325588) 188. $20,500 mu_enrico (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420406#msg57420406) 192. $22,000 Ratimov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423602#msg57423602) 193. $22,580 Buchi-88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325859#msg57325859) 195. $23,500 0x256 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57424695#msg57424695) (second post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57427456#msg57427456)) 197. $24,317 icopress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57417588#msg57417588) 200. $26,242 Charles-Tim (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325430#msg57325430) 204. $28,000 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423807#msg57423807) 207. $29,792 Captain-Cryptory (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57353269#msg57353269) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on August 06, 2021, 10:09:13 PM I refuse to answer until my name is highlighted in red! ;D
The last few months we were in the stage of a flat, which was only now interrupted by an exit in an upward direction, although I think that this is a false impulse after which we will return to the $ 30,000 border. Below I have added a comment on why I would not change my prediction ... so let's see if I'm right or wrong. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on August 06, 2021, 10:25:14 PM I still like my prediction and haven't faltered on it in the least.
I think we will break 100k before December and settle into a little sideways about 65k for a stretch. Now where that stretch is is anyone's guess! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: malevolent on August 06, 2021, 10:30:15 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? I picked 37k as my number expecting the price to mostly go sideways for a couple months, I was wrong; although a lot can still happen, I would probably have picked some number in the 45-60k range now, maybe even above the current ATH. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on August 07, 2021, 02:51:07 AM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Specifically to these bears below - Prediction overview 158. $12,200 PrimeNumber7 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57413633#msg57413633) 171. $14,687 wwzsocki (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330982#msg57330982) 175. $15,800 sabotag3x (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325588#msg57325588) 188. $20,500 mu_enrico (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420406#msg57420406) 192. $22,000 Ratimov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423602#msg57423602) 193. $22,580 Buchi-88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325859#msg57325859) 195. $23,500 0x256 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57424695#msg57424695) (second post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57427456#msg57427456)) 197. $24,317 icopress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57417588#msg57417588) 200. $26,242 Charles-Tim (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325430#msg57325430) 204. $28,000 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423807#msg57423807) 207. $29,792 Captain-Cryptory (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57353269#msg57353269) I continue to believe there is a ridiculous amount of excess in financial markets, which is being caused by QE. Similarly, I believe that QE is causing inflation and is going to cause increased levels of inflation. This will ultimately mean that QE will need to stop and short term interest rates will need to increase. Both of the above will cause an unwinding of speculative bets in assets that includes bitcoin. This will make current levels of many asset classes to look like beyond the moon. This does not speak to the long term potential for the price of bitcoin, but rather the price over the next several months. It is possible that the fed allows inflation to get out of control, which would mean the above will be more pronounced, but will take longer. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 07, 2021, 09:10:59 AM icopress
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 07, 2021, 09:15:39 AM I’m just curious that a sudden pump would cause a change of mind or if it’s irrelevant in your predictions….
Should it be relevant or irrelevant ?? The prediction was over a 6 month time frame, so I don’t know…. ? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on August 07, 2021, 11:20:41 AM I’m just curious that a sudden pump would cause a change of mind or if it’s irrelevant in your predictions…. Many would reply it would be irrelevant, but what caused some people to make a prediction that Bitcoin will crash further under $25,000? Simply their mood and reaction, depending on the current state of the market. Quote Should it be relevant or irrelevant ?? The prediction was over a 6 month time frame, so I don’t know…. ? Will you let them change their prediction? Some of them might predict a price that you might want to see. 6 digits. Hahaha. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 07, 2021, 01:25:47 PM I’m just curious that a sudden pump would cause a change of mind or if it’s irrelevant in your predictions…. Many would reply it would be irrelevant, but what caused some people to make a prediction that Bitcoin will crash further under $25,000? Simply their mood and reaction, depending on the current state of the market. Quote Should it be relevant or irrelevant ?? The prediction was over a 6 month time frame, so I don’t know…. ? Will you let them change their prediction? Some of them might predict a price that you might want to see. 6 digits. Hahaha. Yeah I think some are really having mood swings caused by price reaction… naaah no price changes I was thinking about I don’t remember who it was, but someone suggested the idea of a game and like half way the 20% or something closest to the price of letting them change there price or something…. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 07, 2021, 01:26:18 PM But it wasn’t in the original game post …. So nothing changes for this game
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on August 07, 2021, 03:32:43 PM icopress I'm touched ... :-*I would not change my mind, since the situation may change significantly until December, besides, my forecast puts me in an advantageous position, since if I was mistaken, I would be happy to sell my bitcoins at the new ATH level. The outcome in which my forecast turns out to be correct will also suit me, since I will be able to buy more bitcoins, in addition, the entire lower range of the forecasts has a large price step, which also affects the odds. 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on August 07, 2021, 03:44:30 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Specifically to these bears below - Prediction overview 158. $12,200 PrimeNumber7 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57413633#msg57413633) 171. $14,687 wwzsocki (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330982#msg57330982) 175. $15,800 sabotag3x (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325588#msg57325588) 188. $20,500 mu_enrico (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420406#msg57420406) 192. $22,000 Ratimov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423602#msg57423602) 193. $22,580 Buchi-88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325859#msg57325859) 195. $23,500 0x256 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57424695#msg57424695) (second post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57427456#msg57427456)) 197. $24,317 icopress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57417588#msg57417588) 200. $26,242 Charles-Tim (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325430#msg57325430) 204. $28,000 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57423807#msg57423807) 207. $29,792 Captain-Cryptory (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57353269#msg57353269) I continue to believe there is a ridiculous amount of excess in financial markets, which is being caused by QE. Similarly, I believe that QE is causing inflation and is going to cause increased levels of inflation. This will ultimately mean that QE will need to stop and short term interest rates will need to increase. Both of the above will cause an unwinding of speculative bets in assets that includes bitcoin. This will make current levels of many asset classes to look like beyond the moon. This does not speak to the long term potential for the price of bitcoin, but rather the price over the next several months. It is possible that the fed allows inflation to get out of control, which would mean the above will be more pronounced, but will take longer. You convinced me to sell 1477$ worth of BTC today😊 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 09, 2021, 07:41:01 AM Honestly I think we will reach new high’s before/at the given date….
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on August 09, 2021, 09:24:58 AM I’m just curious that a sudden pump would cause a change of mind or if it’s irrelevant in your predictions…. If it does then the prediction was worthless because when one is speculating about bitcoin price in long term one should not be affected by the short term You convinced me to sell 1477$ worth of BTC today😊 Thanks for the discount ;DTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mu_enrico on August 09, 2021, 11:41:19 AM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? No, I spent 20+ years developing my straight 2 line method (tm)Look at this graph: https://i.ibb.co/hKCXJXp/rocky.jpg The current price is still within the range of my previous model (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420406#msg57420406). LuL Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on August 09, 2021, 04:57:42 PM I just read in a news (https://cointelegraph.com/news/no-bitcoin-isn-t-entering-a-2018-like-bear-cycle-new-data-suggests-as-btc-targets-45k) lately about how 2021 bearish trends may not be and as never been like 2018 when the price of bitcoin plummeted from almost $20000 in January 2018 to almost $3000 in December 2018, that all investor cohorts were responsible for the significant price crash, as many initial coin offering at the time also turned either vaporware or scams at the end, which played a key factor in the marketcap crash from $700 billion in January 2018 to $102 billion in December 2018.
But in 2021, the crash as been different, also according to blockchain analytics firm (https://mobile.twitter.com/glassnode/status/1424606943646154756), investors that have held Bitcoin for over a year showed lesser interest in liquidating holdings if compared to people that have just invested in the last three months, the period when Bitcoin price has been in bearish direction. This news makes me to be thinking the price of bitcoin may not fall below $30000 by December, many institutions are now into crypto, people holding Bitcoin for long are not likely to sell. Although, the inappropriate Elon Musk tweet about Bitcoin that caused bear market that resulted to Bitcoin price falled from all-time-high to $45000, and also the China FUD that made the price to plummet the more to $30000, and yet Bitcoin is recovering back. I check the 2018 chart before making the prediction of $26,242, but I think the price of bitcoin may not fall to that extent. Although, I do not know if all-time-high can be achieved before then as all-time-high has usually been after Bitcoin halving, but maybe,q this time may be different. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on August 09, 2021, 07:35:47 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? No, I spent 20+ years developing my straight 2 line method (tm)Look at this graph: https://i.ibb.co/hKCXJXp/rocky.jpg The current price is still within the range of my previous model (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420406#msg57420406). LuL ok but I mean when you draw that graph BTC was $32,852 and today currently it's trading at $46,291, that's +40% up and that's too within last two weeks. And remember no media no elon shit was involved.. it's bitcoin's pure and genuine hard earned rise :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on August 09, 2021, 08:08:29 PM You convinced me to sell 1477$ worth of BTC today😊 Thanks for the discount ;DHe sold to pay bills, he knows prime is a troll. Thats the joke. Ohh, duh...I missed that you were playing off that joke! :D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on August 10, 2021, 03:50:52 AM I’m just curious that a sudden pump would cause a change of mind or if it’s irrelevant in your predictions…. If it does then the prediction was worthless because when one is speculating about bitcoin price in long term one should not be affected by the short term The price of bitcoin hit a low on March 14, 2020, and on March 15, 2020, the Federal Reserve announced it was going to resume QE. The US stock market (QQQ) hit a local loc on March 23, 2020, which is the day the Federal Reserve announced it was going to increase its QE. Do you really think AMC is worth $17 billion? It is a shrinking company whose market is shrinking, and its valuation is 55 times its last annual profit. Or what about BSV? It has a market cap of >$3 billion, and is a coin that can be 51%'ed for a few hundred grand per day, and has insane technical specs. I think it is difficult to seriously argue that QE is not causing rampant financial speculation and inflation. Once this excessive QE ends, so will the financial speculation, and financial asset prices will fall. I am not a troll, and I am a long-term believer in bitcoin. I am not going to disclose my current holdings, however, in the past, I have held both large amounts of bitcoin, and a stake in a major bitcoin-related business that will only succeed if bitcoin succeeds. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on August 10, 2021, 12:16:34 PM The price dropped to $3k last year when ~all financial asset prices were crashing due to panic over covid. I did not believe the price crash was as a result of Covid-19, it was still during Covid-19 the price also increased to $10000 before it decrease to $8200 pre-halving price. I did not know what also caused March 2019 (not only March 2020) Bitcoin price crash, Bitcoin decreased to $3800 in 2019 and also decreased to $3800 in 2020 until the whole thing change after halving.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on August 11, 2021, 07:24:40 AM I did not believe the price crash was as a result of Covid-19, it was still during Covid-19 the price also increased to $10000 You are correct, the crash was not because of Covid-19, but it was affected by it (indirectly). If you check the media during that time you can clearly see that there was a huge campaign going on trying to convince everyone that "bitcoin is following other markets" whereas bitcoin has NEVER EVER followed any other market in its entire history!!! Soon after as bitcoin recovered while other markets continued struggling for months the "manipulation campaign" in media stopped too.The crash wasn't even new! We had the same exact thing in 2015. Basically each time at the end of the cycle when the bear market is ending and is being replaced by the "reversal" and the bull market there is a similar attempt to crash the market for one last time. They also use some excuse for it too. During last cycle they used "bitcoin is dead" excuse and crashed the market from almost $300 to $150 which is the same almost 50% crash as we had when price was pulled down from $6000 to $3000 as the last attempt before the reversal. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on August 12, 2021, 04:26:10 PM Do you really think AMC is worth $17 billion? It is a shrinking company whose market is shrinking, and its valuation is 55 times its last annual profit. Or what about BSV? It has a market cap of >$3 billion, and is a coin that can be 51%'ed for a few hundred grand per day, and has insane technical specs. You are right about BSV, but with AMC things are very different. It's all about real estate, and if AMC does not generate income at all, then the shares of this company will continue to grow as long as real estate prices in the United States continue to rise, (I'm talking about 1,000 cinemas they own and 10,000 screens). As a consequence, after the recession of Covid, the price of their shares slowly returned to normal, although it is possible that the guys from the WSB crowd could have contributed to this. Correct if I'm wrong, but I hope you get the idea.[...] You guys whatever you want, but I am deeply convinced that against the background of the adaptation of our generation to economic downturns and cataclysms, the world's financial elite needed a new effective instrument that could give a recessionary impulse. For this reason, covid appeared, and this is a fact.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 13, 2021, 08:02:13 PM Imo covid wasn't te reason ... as you say... a last max fear moment
Testing the strong hands :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on August 13, 2021, 08:42:20 PM Testing the strong hands :) I remember well that night, the night when I tore my hair three times ... when everything collapsed, when the oil dropped to negative values (which, by the way, has nothing to do with covid). The oil price collapsed not at all due to the fact that planes did not fly, and trains did not travel ... it was at that moment that restrictions on reducing oil production were lifted. I understand that people see what they want to see, but I also saw how much Bitcoin is dependent on financial institutions that we discuss with such skepticismб (the same night, the night when Bitcoin vtoch followed the S&P500 chart). Nostalgia in one word ... ;DTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on August 15, 2021, 05:47:58 AM I remember well that night, the night when I tore my hair three times ... when everything collapsed, when the oil dropped to negative values (which, by the way, has nothing to do with covid). The oil price collapsed not at all due to the fact that planes did not fly, and trains did not travel ... it was at that moment that restrictions on reducing oil production were lifted. Crude oil price significantly decreased during Covid-19, during lock-down. At times, the oil production-cut to reduce supply can also be an effective way to reduce the severity of oil price drop, if the supply is reduced, the lower will be the fall, but if the supply is not reduced, the more will be the fall. So, the supply reduction will only most likely result to positive result in oil price towards uptrend or to reduce the price not to go more down side. During lockdown, people and industries that were using crude oil by-product significantly reduced, or they reduced its usage, then price falled will surely ensue as the demand significantly reduced. What can still help a little is to reduce supply (reducing oil production at the time) so the price will not be negatively more affected.I understand that people see what they want to see, but I also saw how much Bitcoin is dependent on financial institutions that we discuss with such skepticismб (the same night, the night when Bitcoin vtoch followed the S&P500 chart). Nostalgia in one word ... Grin The price of bitcoin is affected by buying and selling, which means the price is affected by people, the institutions are controlled by people. Why the whales accumulated Bitcoin more after halving? I believe some really waited for the time. Also why China FUD plumented Bitcoin price to $30000 from $45000 before Bitcoin increased back above $45000. There are many factors that would be considered that can affect Bitcoin price. Even if the institutions affect the price, it is not still the only factor that can affect Bitcoin price while many of the institutions want Bitcoin price to appreciate, people like Michael Saylor. But before the recent bull run, one of the suggestions was that Bitcoin into exchanges from wallet reach 6 months low (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5347771.msg57394748#msg57394748), while people moving bitcoin from exchanges to wallet is an indication that most holders do not want to sell at the time, while also miners accumulating is also one of the factors to check, and many others.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on August 20, 2021, 11:43:12 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Eeeeuhm … same question 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vapourminer on August 21, 2021, 12:47:42 AM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Eeeeuhm … same question 8) wait, there was a question? was it important? lol Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on August 21, 2021, 02:36:41 AM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Eeeeuhm … same question 8) wait, there was a question? was it important? lol Would you change your prediction due to the market changes since then? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on August 21, 2021, 06:57:21 AM Same answer:
My $178,845 still looks pretty good :D :DI could have gone a tad higher now, but moving further away from Dabs' prediction and closer to DeathAngel's doesn't feel right: 289. $152,904 Dabs (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326362#msg57326362) Anywhere from $166,875 to $180,922 sounds pretty good to me :D297. $178,845 LoyceV (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57370828#msg57370828) 299. $183,000 DeathAngel (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329997#msg57329997) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: ROSEDF on August 21, 2021, 07:10:04 AM The price dropped to $3k last year when ~all financial asset prices were crashing due to panic over covid. I did not believe the price crash was as a result of Covid-19, it was still during Covid-19 the price also increased to $10000 before it decrease to $8200 pre-halving price. I did not know what also caused March 2019 (not only March 2020) Bitcoin price crash, Bitcoin decreased to $3800 in 2019 and also decreased to $3800 in 2020 until the whole thing change after halving.Prices are at a new high recently. I feel I want to develop towards 60k. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vapourminer on August 21, 2021, 12:43:50 PM wait, there was a question? was it important? lol Would you change your prediction due to the market changes since then? negative. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hhampuz on August 21, 2021, 12:45:39 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Eeeeuhm … same question 8) I would. I don't think we'll see $40k again after August. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: xhomerx10 on August 21, 2021, 05:25:37 PM Would anyone of previous price prediction change there mind cause of the latest weeks…? Or is everyone just thinking same as when they chose there price? Same question…? Eeeeuhm … same question 8) I would. I don't think we'll see $40k again after August. https://i.imgur.com/HwcwhtT.png Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on August 22, 2021, 10:06:49 AM wait, there was a question? was it important? lol Would you change your prediction due to the market changes since then? negative. But your prediction is $60,000, obviously you shouldn’t change that prediction. The question might be pointed towards the people who made those bearish predictions going under $30,000. It might also be “mockingly pointed” towards them by El duderino_? 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on August 22, 2021, 11:45:38 AM 166 to 180 still looking ripe, doesn't it? I know we still look like having trouble even testing 50k but I honestly no longer see my 100k odd prediction as safe any longer.
Interesting thoughts you got there about covid, icopress, and I say this somewhat extrapolating your predictive analysis on the sports threads ;) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vicko27 on August 23, 2021, 04:23:08 PM I predict bitcoin is still holding back towards new ATH this year, due to the many catalysts from various countries in holding interest rates.
Behind the curve is a very important in the investment world and influences the direction of the market a lot, especially if the Fed plays an important role. Because currently investors and investment fund are still wait and see to hit the market, I'm prefer to prepare a little money if it turns out that the central bank goes along with the curve to suppress inflation, which will cause bonds to fall. I only see from various resources that affect the market I'm just a small investor and trader who takes profit by being a patient. Applogize if my analysis is wrong! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: dark1234 on September 02, 2021, 04:22:22 AM I predict bitcoin is still holding back towards new ATH this year, due to the many catalysts from various countries in holding interest rates. I agree with you .... and sometimes investors and traders like you are more careful and tend to be more effective and efficient in analyzing future prices because theoretically those with small capital will be more patient to wait for big profits even though it's long termBehind the curve is a very important in the investment world and influences the direction of the market a lot, especially if the Fed plays an important role. Because currently investors and investment fund are still wait and see to hit the market, I'm prefer to prepare a little money if it turns out that the central bank goes along with the curve to suppress inflation, which will cause bonds to fall. I only see from various resources that affect the market I'm just a small investor and trader who takes profit by being a patient. Applogize if my analysis is wrong! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on September 02, 2021, 11:58:24 AM 166 to 180 still looking ripe, doesn't it? I know we still look like having trouble even testing 50k but I honestly no longer see my 100k odd prediction as safe any longer. As I said, I see positive aspects both in the growth and decline of BTC, but I am still quite skeptical of the market as a whole due to the fact that bitcoin dominates by only 42%. In this regard, it is hard for me to believe that we will surpass the $ 4 trillion mark in total capitalization, unless Bitcoin shakes up the Altcoin market, (with the current dominance of BTC, the 4 trillion capitalization of the entire market is equivalent to the price of $ 100,000 for 1 bitcoin).I mean, all these shitty coins with billions of dollars capitalizations are like weeds and parasites, which sooner or later will provoke a mega collapse, and I believe that the situation will be worse than it was in the desk last year. All this zero value shit will pull Bitcoin towards the $ 20K mark while the alts themselves will lose 90/95% of their value. Interesting thoughts you got there about covid, icopress, and I say this somewhat extrapolating your predictive analysis on the sports threads ;) I will be glad to hear if you write more in detail about this .. for example, in one of those topics where we often chat. :-*Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on September 02, 2021, 12:34:21 PM I mean, all these shitty coins with billions of dollars capitalizations are like weeds and parasites, which sooner or later will provoke a mega collapse, and I believe that the situation will be worse than it was in the desk last year. All this zero value shit will pull Bitcoin towards the $ 20K mark while the alts themselves will lose 90/95% of their value. Historically shitcoins' dumps have created some sell pressure in bitcoin market, since only a tiny portion of the "money" exits through bitcoin (shitcoin > bitcoin > fiat) instead of simply be converted to bitcoin (shitcoin > bitcoin) or directly converted to fiat (shitcoin > fiat/stableshitcoin). So this sell pressure has never been and can never be strong enough to cause any kind of a big drop and definitely nothing even close to 60% drop as you suggest here! Basically the worst case scenario would be 10% drop and actually the most probable case of a large scale altcoin dump is a massive bitcoin price surge since a lot of money escapes the vaporware market and comes back to bitcoin. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on September 02, 2021, 12:38:58 PM As I said, I see positive aspects both in the growth and decline of BTC, but I am still quite skeptical of the market as a whole due to the fact that bitcoin dominates by only 42%. In this regard, it is hard for me to believe that we will surpass the $ 4 trillion mark in total capitalization, unless Bitcoin shakes up the Altcoin market, (with the current dominance of BTC, the 4 trillion capitalization of the entire market is equivalent to the price of $ 100,000 for 1 bitcoin). When Bitcoin was at $7000 last year to the extent it decreased below $3800, it was very surprising how it got to over $60000 this year, this still make it possible for its price to be able to increase to $100000. Although, altcoins are the inhibitors but what we need to focus more on are investors, like if investors invest more on bitcoin, are their 1% to 10% of their total wealth which we believe can be invested on Bitcoin can get Bitcoin marketcap to $2 trillion. About Bitcoin, there is nothing impossible, it has been a coin that has surprised people with its marketcap and price uptrends.I am not implying bitcoin can not go sideways but it is very possible for bitcoin to get to $100000 as well. Although, what I am thinking about that could make more investors to invest more is halving, but next halving time is still long and anything can still be possible before the time. with the current dominance of BTC, the 4 trillion capitalization of the entire market is equivalent to the price of $ 100,000 for 1 bitcoin The total capitalization of the entire crypto market is just slightly above $2 trillion, look into it very well and correct me if wrong. Yes, bitcoin only need to get to $2 trillion marketcap to achieve a price slightly above $100000 with the present circulatory supply of 18.8 billion. And we can remember vividly when the marketcap was below $150 million last year IIRC.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on September 02, 2021, 01:57:31 PM I am still quite skeptical of the market as a whole due to the fact that bitcoin dominates by only 42%. That's easy to explain: the total Coin Market Cap is irrelevant! Check the Top 6 (https://coinmarketcap.com/):BTC, ETH, ADA, BNB, USDT and XRP. I'm not sure about ADA, but 4 out of 6 (ETH, BNB, USDT and XRP) are all centralized and centrally controlled. That's 30% of the total market cap explained right there, and none of them come close to what Bitcoin stands for They're basically businesses selling their made-up and completely controlled coins. You can just as well add CBDCs to CMC once Central Banks create their own centralized digital fiat. Bitcoin's market cap will instantly drop to a fraction of a percent as they can create trillions of dollars worth of fiat. But non of that matters to Bitcoin. The IMF warns countries against Bitcoin adoption (https://www.livemint.com/market/cryptocurrency/imf-warns-that-crypto-assets-as-national-currency-is-a-step-too-far-11630322766377.html). That only makes me believe they fear to lose their grip on money, and I can't wait for that to happen. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on September 02, 2021, 02:03:27 PM Well, I did not mean an instant collapse from the 50,000 mark, and I am not inclined to think that at this stage the altcoin market could collapse while Bitcoin continues to rise. A parallel decline, and further mono-growth of Bitcoin (leaving the alt market at the bottom) is the only logical outcome in which Bitcoin can regain 60% dominance and at the same time the capitalization of the entire market will look more or less reasonable.
The total capitalization of the entire crypto market is just slightly above $2 trillion, look into it very well and correct me if wrong. Yes, bitcoin only need to get to $2 trillion marketcap to achieve a price slightly above $100000 with the present circulatory supply of 18.8 billion. And we can remember vividly when the marketcap was below $150 million last year IIRC. Speaking of 4 trillion capitalization, I just drew a parallel with the current capitalization with the estimated price of bitcoin. Otherwise, how much can the total market capitalization be if the bitcoin price reaches $ 100,000? (although I probably even underestimated the estimated figure if the price reaches $ 100,000).Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on September 02, 2021, 02:26:21 PM Speaking of 4 trillion capitalization, I just drew a parallel with the current capitalization with the estimated price of bitcoin. Otherwise, how much can the total market capitalization be if the bitcoin price reaches $ 100,000? (although I probably even underestimated the estimated figure if the price reaches $ 100,000). I believe you know this, but let me just save you the time of the calculation I do it from hereCirculatory supply estimate = 18.8 million Price = $100000 Marketcap estimate = X Marketcap = Price * Circulatory supply = $100000 * 18.8 million = $1,880,000,000,000 So with the present circulatory supply estimate, $1.8 trillion should get bitcoin to approximately $100000. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on September 02, 2021, 02:41:03 PM [...] Well, I did not say that one of the coins or several could at least hypothetically approach the capitalization of bitcoin, but nevertheless, all this garbage one way or another at the moment has liquidity. I totally agree with your opinion about "fictional and fully controlled coins" and will continue to consider 99% of these coins to be real fiction. But the problem is also in the mistaken mentality, since "opinion leaders" mistakenly compare cryptoassets with stocks, as a consequence of the cryptomarket from the very beginning inherited several primitive abstract ingrained concepts.[...] Sorry, this is my fault, apparently I am not clearly expressing myself [but it seemed to me that I expressed myself quite unambiguously] ... I meant the percentage dominance of bitcoin to the total capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market (at a price of $ 50k [Now the price is $ 50,000 / Total Cap 2.2T / 42% dominance] and at a price of $100k per bitcoin [etc.]).Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on September 07, 2021, 09:36:26 PM Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason?
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on September 07, 2021, 11:57:54 PM That only makes me believe they fear to lose their grip on money, and I can't wait for that to happen. This is the way. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on September 07, 2021, 11:58:55 PM Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason? Not a chance. :) Right on schedule. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: NeuroticFish on September 08, 2021, 08:14:05 AM Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason? Not a chance. :) Right on schedule. That's correct. If this new "omg, dump, end of the world" wouldn't have happened, we may have had to adjust our guesses much higher; but now, we're just fine. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on September 08, 2021, 03:06:25 PM Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason? No way, mine is still looking good. To be honest I don’t care who wins, I would like bitcoin to go much higher than my prediction which is also possible. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on September 09, 2021, 03:54:28 AM I am still quite skeptical of the market as a whole due to the fact that bitcoin dominates by only 42%. That's easy to explain: the total Coin Market Cap is irrelevant! Check the Top 6 (https://coinmarketcap.com/):BTC, ETH, ADA, BNB, USDT and XRP. I'm not sure about ADA, but 4 out of 6 (ETH, BNB, USDT and XRP) are all centralized and centrally controlled. For example BNB, USDT, ADA and XRP are 100% premined and only a small percentage of that supply has entered circulation while the centralized authority owns the majority. Or ETH supply is about 70% premined and owned by its centralized authority. Remove those out of circulation supplies and you suddenly see that bitcoin Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on September 09, 2021, 08:54:05 AM Or better yet try and use the REAL circulating supply That wouldn't be possible: many coins are lost, and many coins are in long-term storage. It would be interesting to see how many coins are actually traded, but it's also not possible to distinguish between someone selling coins, and someone just moving coins to another wallet.Quote Remove those out of circulation supplies and you suddenly see that bitcoin Just a thought: what would happen to the gold market cap if we exclude gold that wasn't physically moved to a new owner during a year?Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on September 10, 2021, 02:39:26 AM That wouldn't be possible: many coins are lost, and many coins are in long-term storage. It would be interesting to see how many coins are actually traded, but it's also not possible to distinguish between someone selling coins, and someone just moving coins to another wallet. I wasn't talking about "lost" coins, but coins that had never technically existed to begin with. For example when Ripple foundation creates millions of XRP out of thin air they don't dump it on the market, they just hold it in their wallets and let a very small portion enter circulation. That way they only inflate the market cap by increasing supply without damaging the price (MC=supply*price).Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on September 10, 2021, 08:00:07 AM Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason? No, but I believe my prediction will not be in range for the year after the flash crash of the week. But it might be in range for the current cycle, which I believe because Bitcoin is in an unusual situation because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve will BRRRRR more next year. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on September 11, 2021, 04:03:47 PM I do believe as well high prices are still whitin reach and can come way faster as we think....
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on September 11, 2021, 08:12:34 PM Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason? Honestly, I'm too lazy now to do any analysis, so I will share quotes with which I absolutely agree (why I would not change my mind (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57417588#msg57417588) in the current situation).[1] "Bitcoin has been highly correlated with SNP500 over the past five years" [I understand that there will be a correction soon] [2] "It is likely that a potential correction could reach -60% of the peak and refresh the last low of March 2020" [3] Consequences: "SEC threatened to sue Coinbase" and "Bubble NFT" [4] "On Se 14, there will be data on inflation in the US, and on Sep 22 there will be a meeting of the Federal Reserve and a decision on the interest rate" I do believe as well high prices are still whitin reach and can come way faster as we think.... I think not earlier than January. :'(Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on September 11, 2021, 09:32:02 PM Please just don’t fall for quotes written by a single person or charts been made up by a person
The biggest mistake to many make IMO Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on September 14, 2021, 12:22:20 PM I do believe as well high prices are still whitin reach and can come way faster as we think.... 6 digits, within reach. My prediction, $333,333, I will concede that it’s not within reach during this current cycle. But I’m very confident within 5 years Bitcoin will surge to $500,000. It’s simply properly placed in its design, from currency issuance, to the incentive structure. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on September 14, 2021, 01:55:13 PM My prediction, $333,333, I will concede that it’s not within reach during this current cycle. Bitcoin has done crazy things before, so it could still happen the coming 3 months.Even better: I'm willing to sell you 1 Bitcoin for $333,333 right now! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on September 14, 2021, 02:03:26 PM Please just don’t fall for quotes written by a single person or charts been made up by a person The best is for someone to do his own research, but this is clear enough (but not yet happened and occurrences might change over time), after halving, all-time-high were attained in 2012, 2016 and 2020. There were series of retracements and retests within, but halving can bring fomo.The biggest mistake to many make IMO 6 digits, within reach. My prediction, $333,333, I will concede that it’s not within reach during this current cycle. But I’m very confident within 5 years Bitcoin will surge to $500,000. It’s simply properly placed in its design, from currency issuance, to the incentive structure. I am just certainly believing bitcoin will increase above $100000 after next halving. Halving normally happens in every 210000 blocks mined as you know and this does not usually take up to 4 years (or will take approximately 4 years) and next halving is extimated to be February, 2024, but still far to know if it will be exactly that month. 2024 would likely be a long year for bull market. Bitcoin was created in just 1 dacade ago, some people says bitcoin is no more young, truly Bitcoin is matured but yet young or not old in valuation. Very possible 3 to 4 trillion marketcap is attainable within the next 4 to 5 years. But we should have in mind that as bitcoin marketcap increases, volatility will likely be decreasing. My prediction, $333,333, I will concede that it’s not within reach during this current cycle. Bitcoin has done crazy things before, so it could still happen the coming 3 months.Even better: I'm willing to sell you 1 Bitcoin for $333,333 right now! I chose $26,242 while the resistance at $30000 was so strong, the price at $46300 presently, the only hope I have now is for the price to drop just like it did in March 2019 and 2020 which triggered another bull run. Bitcoin price is hard to predict in short term, but obviously clear bull is the result on long term, I mean 4 to 5 years from now. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on September 19, 2021, 04:53:46 AM Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason? I originally predicted (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57413633#msg57413633) the price will fall due to the removal of QE that will stop and reverse speculative bets on various asset classes. I continue to believe that QE will need to be removed fairly soon and that doing so will result in speculative bets being reversed. It is unclear if this will happen (and see the effects) by the December 7 deadline. Inflation continues to be very high, and the fed may end up needing to tighten swiftly if it continues to get out of hand. QE ending and/or Q-tightening has the potential to negatively affect the price of bitcoin, and will almost certainly negatively affect the price of most altcoins and the NFT market.One part of Democrats' $3.5 trillion (sticker price) spending plan is to force banks to report to the IRS sums of inflows and outflows of bank accounts exceeding $600 per year in order to increase tax "compliance". If this is something that becomes law, I would expect people to move money into the crypto market, and conduct more transactions via crypto. I am not sure how much this will affect the price by early December, but long term, it will be something that is net positive for bitcoin. The pending US government debt ceiling limit and associated drama have the potential to throw a wrench in the financial markets. I strategically place my prediction in order to have the lowest price in order to take advantage of the negative effects of the removal of QE. I think this is probably still a strategy that gives me the best chance to win the contest. Given the above analysis, I might say that bitcoin has a good chance of ending up at a higher price than my prediction, even potentially higher than it is today, however as I am sure everyone knows, when bitcoin's price moves, it can MOVE. If the price were to end at say $75k in early December, the price could easily be 5 or 10% different in either direction a few hours before or after the deadline. This means I may have the price exactly right 6 hours before the deadline, but at the deadline, there might be 5 people who have bets closer to the actual price than my revised bet. This leaves me with the choice between making a guess of about $200k, $250k, $380k, or $430k. I don't see the price going up ~4x by December if the above tax law is implemented, and I am doubtful the price will go up ~8x by early December, absent something crazy happening that causes the fed to increase QE. Given that a bet that the price will end at $430k results in a prize >~35x more valuable than the prize with my current bet, the EV of a revised bet to $430k is probably greater than my current bet if it was guaranteed that no one could place a bet above mine. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on September 27, 2021, 07:02:20 AM Entering Q4, how do we feel price wise... will which member will win 8)
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on September 27, 2021, 07:32:36 AM which member will win 8) In a surprising turn of events that makes central bankers fear for their power, pooya87 takes the lead:341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) /me keeps dreamingTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on September 27, 2021, 08:17:59 AM Another FUD from China as PBoC makes bitcoin illegal to its citizens, this did not even take down bitcoin price below $40000, the price has even increased back the 5% loss which might even likely not be as a result of the FUD.
Entering Q4, how do we feel price wise... will which member will win 8) $40000 resistance is strong but bitcoin price volatility could be surprising.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on September 27, 2021, 10:09:49 AM Another FUD from China as PBoC makes bitcoin illegal to its citizens, this did not even take down bitcoin price below $40000, the price has even increased back the 5% loss which might even likely not be as a result of the FUD. Well I guess this banning news is so common it does not even worth mentioning... Bitcoin is reaching to the level where single country or single person like Elon can't effect any more. $100k by December 2021 is still very much possible 2x of my prediction 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on September 27, 2021, 12:12:21 PM Entering Q4, how do we feel price wise... will which member will win 8) DABS. He predicted the most realistic price point for the current cycle, considering the current behavior of the market in my opinion. BUT this is Bitcoin, it might surge over Dab’s prediction, but I believe it will definitely NOT reach my price anymore. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: SFR10 on September 28, 2021, 06:08:04 AM Entering Q4, how do we feel price wise... I'm still quite confident that it would reach what I "predicted (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328194#msg57328194)" before [or at least close to it].
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 05, 2021, 10:37:46 AM It's the UPTOBER month. For those people who gave the prediction that Bitcoin to crash down below $30,000, if given by El duderino the chance to change your predictions, would you do it? 8)
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on October 05, 2021, 11:04:46 AM It's the UPTOBER month. For those people who gave the prediction that Bitcoin to crash down below $30,000, if given by El duderino the chance to change your predictions, would you do it? 8) It's all fun, we all enjoyed the recent increase ;D. Only that I have little amount of bitcoin holding as I am a latecomer, but nobody is still late in the game in 5 and more years to come.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 05, 2021, 12:33:15 PM It's the UPTOBER month. For those people who gave the prediction that Bitcoin to crash down below $30,000, if given by El duderino the chance to change your predictions, would you do it? 8) It's all fun, we all enjoyed the recent increase ;D. Only that I have little amount of bitcoin holding as I am a latecomer, but nobody is still late in the game in 5 and more years to come.If you believe you're "late in the game", then Michael Saylor is VERY late in the game. He spent BILLIONS, and sold debt to buy more. I'm very confident anyone would not mind being a "late comer" when Bitcoin is valued in six digits per coin. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on October 05, 2021, 03:00:30 PM If you believe you're "late in the game", then Michael Saylor is VERY late in the game. He spent BILLIONS, and sold debt to buy more. I'm very confident anyone would not mind being a "late comer" when Bitcoin is valued in six digits per coin. We both are still on the same page, only implying now not later, I know I won't be late no more when bitcoin price becomes six digits. What I just meant is that people that were first investors have made profit beyond imagination, bitcoin made that possible while they were early, but people that are investing now and able to be patient and never panic about any downtrend will see bitcoin price over $100000 one day, that is why bitcoin is better than just leaving it useless in fiat which will only ensue depreciation.I really understood you, when bitcoin price was at four digits, many people said they were later already, then bitcoin increased in digits to over $7000, now at $50000 again. With the wealth in the world, we still expect more about bitcoin. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on October 05, 2021, 03:19:18 PM What I just meant is that people that were first investors have made profit beyond imagination, It depends on your imagination :PIf you are imagining thousand trillion percentage then you are right the early investors are going to make that profit. But for most people doubling their money every year is more than beyond imagination let alone making 15x (or about 1500%) profit in 2 years! That's the thing about not yet having reached the mass adoption, the price will continue shooting up until we do. There has been a lot of propaganda brainwashing newcomers (not talking about you), one of which is making them feel the rise has stopped and just because others made a big profit the price won't go any higher. Another funny one which we are seeing today is the dumb one about bitcoin following stock market, which as we are seeing these days the stocks are dumping hard while bitcoin keeps rising. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Nomad88 on October 05, 2021, 07:01:06 PM This is going to be fun :) Can't wait for December...
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on October 05, 2021, 08:44:56 PM It's the UPTOBER month. For those people who gave the prediction that Bitcoin to crash down below $30,000, if given by El duderino the chance to change your predictions, would you do it? 8) A bit sorry …. Maybe the rule should have been the 10 closest up and down from now to change there price…. But too late maybe in a next game Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on October 05, 2021, 08:49:57 PM It's the UPTOBER month. For those people who gave the prediction that Bitcoin to crash down below $30,000, if given by El duderino the chance to change your predictions, would you do it? 8) Anybody who was that bearish is probably a NOCOINER. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on October 06, 2021, 02:36:55 AM What I just meant is that people that were first investors have made profit beyond imagination, It depends on your imagination :PIf you are imagining thousand trillion percentage then you are right the early investors are going to make that profit. But for most people doubling their money every year is more than beyond imagination let alone making 15x (or about 1500%) profit in 2 years! That's the thing about not yet having reached the mass adoption, the price will continue shooting up until we do. There are plenty of (risky) investments that have doubled investors' money every year, and that have 15x'ed investors' money over 2 years, although both are very risky. There are plenty of investors who try to find these types of investments. Depending on the maturity of the business, pre-IPO companies can have a 95% failure rate, so if you are investing in companies that are not yet public, the companies that ultimately do succeed will need to generate a 20x return just for you to potentially break even. For comparison, in 2004, Peter Tiel invested approximately $500k into Facebook at a $5.9 million valuation for a 10.2% stake in the company. In 2013, when Facebook went public, the value of Tiel's stake was approximately 3,220x of his initial $500k investment (his stake was diluted due to Facebook selling additional shares subsequent to his initial investment). I am not aware of any other investment that has returned 10,000x return over a period of 10 years or less. If no investment has generated that level of returns, there is no reason why any reasonable investor would dream of getting those kinds of returns. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 06, 2021, 10:41:34 AM What I just meant is that people that were first investors have made profit beyond imagination, It depends on your imagination :PIf you are imagining thousand trillion percentage then you are right the early investors are going to make that profit. But for most people doubling their money every year is more than beyond imagination let alone making 15x (or about 1500%) profit in 2 years! That's the thing about not yet having reached the mass adoption, the price will continue shooting up until we do. There has been a lot of propaganda brainwashing newcomers (not talking about you), one of which is making them feel the rise has stopped and just because others made a big profit the price won't go any higher. Another funny one which we are seeing today is the dumb one about bitcoin following stock market, which as we are seeing these days the stocks are dumping hard while bitcoin keeps rising. I believe that this “profit beyond imagination” that every newbie/plebs like us are chasing is also what’s making them “invest” in useless shitcoins, missing the real point that we should be in this more for the Science than the profit. A community supporting an open source project, like Linux. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on October 06, 2021, 05:29:37 PM Just checking this now, after the whole FUD, bitcoin marketcap touch $1 trillion again.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on October 06, 2021, 06:58:55 PM Just checking this now, after the whole FUD, bitcoin marketcap touch $1 trillion again. https://i.imgur.com/d7vKgUh.gif Btw, with recent price movements... which ranges would we say to be favorites to win this game? [moderator's note: consecutive posts merged] Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on October 06, 2021, 11:32:31 PM Btw, with recent price movements... which ranges would we say to be favorites to win this game? $ 25,000 as I still believe we can get close to the bottom of the 10-year green zone. Not that it was related to my prediction for this price range, I just did not exchange all my fiat for bitcoins when the price was $ 30,000, so I still hopeб (so I think LFC was right about all the guys who predicted a pullback). :DAnybody who was that bearish is probably a NOCOINER. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 07, 2021, 07:33:12 AM Just checking this now, after the whole FUD, bitcoin marketcap touch $1 trillion again. https://i.imgur.com/d7vKgUh.gif Btw, with recent price movements... which ranges would we say to be favorites to win this game? [moderator's note: consecutive posts merged] I believe it’s going to be from buwaytress to DeathAngel. Anyone who will posts and says, “from Wind_FURY to pooya87”, I would welcome to our little club called “The Golden Bulls But Sometimes the 6-Digit Stupid Club”. 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on October 07, 2021, 07:52:41 AM Btw, with recent price movements... which ranges would we say to be favorites to win this game? I do not have believe again in a price below $30000, but we do not know what the next FUD could be, but neither am I believing bitcoin price can fall below $40000. I will choose $40000 to $50000 price range, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the price higher or lower, but I think that range is making more sense.$ 25,000 as I still believe we can get close to the bottom of the 10-year green zone. Not that it was related to my prediction for this price range, I just did not exchange all my fiat for bitcoins when the price was $ 30,000, so I still hopeб (so I think LFC was right about all the guys who predicted a pullback). It depends. Some people are complete holders, that is what that fit what LFC_Bitcoin is implying. There are different types of holders. For example, some holders can divide their investment money into 2 or 3 or 4 or more. There were people that invested when bitcoin was at $35000, some of the same people invested another part of their money when bitcoin decreased further, some will be expecting any decrease and they will invest more all just because they know no matter what happened, all-time-high is certain.When bitcoin soured to $52900 before this bull market, many investors took profit, that was quite obvious and clear to people, bitcoin plumented to $40800 or around that price, then whales and other bitcoiners invested in bitcoin again while some people will still not invest all their funds and having investment strategies that may be more or less profitable. Bitcoin holders can be more bitcoin enthusiastic than one another, but not because some sold few but not all and expecting price to fall or not should be considered as noncoiners. Even if bitcoin price continue to fall, some people have strategies that they will always invest at certain price after fall and waiting for all-time-high. Some people can be whales but yet having high percentage of fiat, they see bitcoin falling as an opportunity to also still invest further. Even Michael Saylor prefer to have more bitcoin holdings when the price is falling, It could be either because of people not to fear and sell or maybe it is another opportunity for holding more bitcoin. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on October 07, 2021, 11:35:09 AM I believe it’s going to be from buwaytress to DeathAngel. Anyone who will posts and says, “from Wind_FURY to pooya87”, I would welcome to our little club called “The Golden Bulls But Sometimes the 6-Digit Stupid Club”. 8) Loving the confidence in me, but at this rate, I'll probably be left in the dust as a reward for not being stupid (bullish?) enough to go for the stars (the moon's so 2017, brutha). Either way, long way to go til we come round the mountain. Plenty of drama in between for sure and my popcorn's gone stale waiting. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on October 08, 2021, 07:01:11 AM Just checking this now, after the whole FUD, bitcoin marketcap touch $1 trillion again. https://i.imgur.com/d7vKgUh.gif Btw, with recent price movements... which ranges would we say to be favorites to win this game? [moderator's note: consecutive posts merged] I believe it’s going to be from buwaytress to DeathAngel. Anyone who will posts and says, “from Wind_FURY to pooya87”, I would welcome to our little club called “The Golden Bulls But Sometimes the 6-Digit Stupid Club”. 8) Seems like a nice range…. Would be awesome in line with PlanB The longer the prophecy runs the cooler it is ::) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: fillippone on October 08, 2021, 12:13:21 PM Seems like a nice range…. Would be awesome in line with PlanB The longer the prophecy runs the cooler it is ::) Indeed it Would! Guess you predicted exactly Plan B price? Also, I was wondering: the last edition there were those wonderful monitoring websites....this time they are not ready yet? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on October 08, 2021, 02:36:05 PM Prediction overview 158. $12,200 PrimeNumber7 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57413633#msg57413633) ... 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) ... 341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) So in effect I have to worry about tweetious and theymos so 69340 is 685 higher then tweetious and 660 lower than philipma1957 So I would win and 69333 is 678 higher then tweetious and 667 lower than philipma1957 so I would win and 69328 is 673 higher then tweetious and 672 lower than philipma1957 so I would win lastly 69237 is 672 higher then tweetious and 673 lower than philipma1957 so I would lose so 69328 is my cutoff for winning on the low side on the high side 71022 is 1022 higher than me and 1024 lower than theymos So I win 71023 is 1023 higher than me and 1023 lower than theymos so we tie 71024 is 1024 higher than me and 1022 lower than theymos so I lose. So did I get this correct? Or have I mis understood the rules I see this as 69328 to 71022 I win I know that pennies can alter what I am saying, but I wanted to understand basic rules for the winner. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on October 08, 2021, 02:56:31 PM 69328 to 71022 I win I'd say you win from $69,327.51 to $71,022.99, and tie at $69,327.50 or $71,023.00.But don't worry about it, your prediction is $100k too low :P /me dreams away. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on October 08, 2021, 03:19:05 PM Prediction overview 158. $12,200 PrimeNumber7 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57413633#msg57413633) ... 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) ... 341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) <> I see this as 69328 to 71022 I win I know that pennies can alter what I am saying, but I wanted to understand basic rules for the winner. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on October 08, 2021, 09:52:27 PM Seems like a nice range…. Would be awesome in line with PlanB The longer the prophecy runs the cooler it is ::) Indeed it Would! Guess you predicted exactly Plan B price? Also, I was wondering: the last edition there were those wonderful monitoring websites....this time they are not ready yet? Was thinking the same…. I didn’t made them :/ Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on October 08, 2021, 11:05:21 PM I WILL take my 70k for this contest.
Down the road say Jan 27 2022 it can top 100k Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vapourminer on October 09, 2021, 11:59:44 AM yup sticking with my 60k
but i wont complain if you hit it with 70k ;D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on October 09, 2021, 09:15:42 PM yup sticking with my 60k but i wont complain if you hit it with 70k ;D Yeah heck even if theymos beats me out by a few pennies . We would still be over 71k which would be nice with my spare selling stack Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on October 16, 2021, 08:34:52 PM https://blackhatcoiner.com/price/
Guys, you have relaxed too much ... BTC has crossed an important price mark, but I do not see any joyful squeals or broken discipline in this thread! Quote The bitcoin futures ETF from ProShares will begin trading next week [...] Approval for the ProShares ETF appears to be based on the 75 days elapsed time for the application. Since the agency did not reject it on time, this is considered a permit, although the US Securities Commission did not give public permission. Although, given one well-known proverb ... "Buy the Rumor, Sell the fact" not everything is so smooth. Whether it is good or bad depends only on the difference of opinions and views, since in fact BTC was created just to counteract the system being completely "besieged" by regulators. Personally I would not say that this is really good news, since the SEC's inaction is helping the adoption process, which will ultimately affect the liquidity of a lot of shitcoins. But if BTC is suddenly outlawed ... BTC will continue to live, but at the same time we will get rid of the altcoin bubble, a bubble of threatening dimensions. ::)Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on October 18, 2021, 08:07:05 PM where are the real time tickers?
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on October 19, 2021, 02:08:27 AM but at the same time we will get rid of the altcoin bubble, a bubble of threatening dimensions. ::) Shitcoins will never disappear as they are the easiest way to separate the nubbs from their fiat. I just think of them as a fiat onboarding mechanism. :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on October 19, 2021, 05:00:29 AM where are the real time tickers? We can use same or if you want something different? https://shahzadafzal.github.io/bitciontalk-summer-game-winner-dec-2021.html Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on October 19, 2021, 06:33:52 AM I believe it’s going to be from buwaytress to DeathAngel. Anyone who will posts and says, “from Wind_FURY to pooya87”, I would welcome to our little club called “The Golden Bulls But Sometimes the 6-Digit Stupid Club”. 8) Things are getting heated up as we are now knocking on the previous ATH door. Breaking it would start a new chapter in uncharted waters and price could be anything in the following ~3 weeks. Lat time we broke ATH the follow up 3x rise was slow and took about 4 months.https://i.imgur.com/pMSXtBV.jpg In any case our little club managed to screw up the curve nicely though :D https://i.imgur.com/eZm3oHI.jpg Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on October 19, 2021, 08:13:57 AM where are the real time tickers? Best I could do is make didLoyceVwinyet.tk :DTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on October 19, 2021, 08:17:08 AM Last time we broke ATH the follow up 3x rise was slow and took about 4 months. Correct me if I am wrong, this will be the first all-time-high more than ones before the next halving after bitcoin has dropped significantly from all-time-high price.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on October 19, 2021, 09:00:19 AM Last time we broke ATH the follow up 3x rise was slow and took about 4 months. Correct me if I am wrong, this will be the first all-time-high more than ones before the next halving after bitcoin has dropped significantly from all-time-high price.Depends what you mean by significant, I guess. In the last cycle, as ATHs were building up in 2017 there were significant drops from 2900 to 1900 (30+%), and then from 4900 to 3100 (35%). This year did make a pretty impressive +50% drop already but yeah, if it makes another ATH, I guess it will take the record as the first cycle to record a new peak after a >50% dip from previous. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 19, 2021, 12:23:14 PM Last time we broke ATH the follow up 3x rise was slow and took about 4 months. Correct me if I am wrong, this will be the first all-time-high more than ones before the next halving after bitcoin has dropped significantly from all-time-high price.Depends what you mean by significant, I guess. In the last cycle, as ATHs were building up in 2017 there were significant drops from 2900 to 1900 (30+%), and then from 4900 to 3100 (35%). This year did make a pretty impressive +50% drop already but yeah, if it makes another ATH, I guess it will take the record as the first cycle to record a new peak after a >50% dip from previous. Then we welcome another experience for a very very small, 30% or more correction the same as April before Bitcoin surges back on its path to 6 digits? Or is that already priced in, and we experience a scarier 10% or less mini-crash? 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on October 20, 2021, 12:36:03 PM Then we welcome another experience for a very very small, 30% or more correction the same as April before Bitcoin surges back on its path to 6 digits? Or is that already priced in, and we experience a scarier 10% or less mini-crash? 8) I wouldn't be opposed to it at all. Say we get our new ATH now, I'm pretty sure it should be at least in the 70s or 80s, hard to see Bitcoin breaking past 65k without doing at least a 15-percenter. And yes I do realise I'm throwing numbers about for fun heh... Even at 72k, if for some odd reason momentum is exhausted, a "small" 30% dip is barely sub 50k. Tell me this a year ago and I'd jump at it. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on October 20, 2021, 01:10:17 PM where are the real time tickers? We can use same or if you want something different? https://shahzadafzal.github.io/bitciontalk-summer-game-winner-dec-2021.html ADD it in the OP thx Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 21, 2021, 12:41:00 PM Bitcoin experienced a mini-crash, one of the first of the many new mini-crashes before resuming back to its surge to six digits. It’s normal, sers. It’s merely overleveraged traders having their accounts liquidated. A necessary process before the moon. 8)
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on October 21, 2021, 02:04:55 PM Bitcoin experienced a mini-crash That's not a mini crash, it's barely 3%. I'd say a mini crash is like 20%, and a big crash would be 80%.It's a hiccup at most :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vapourminer on October 21, 2021, 02:25:29 PM [...] a big crash would be 80%. wut 80% is a dip crashes start around 95% Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on October 22, 2021, 09:23:32 AM crashes start around 95% Now explain to your 2011-self that $3000 is a crash :DTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 22, 2021, 09:25:07 AM Bitcoin experienced a mini-crash That's not a mini crash, it's barely 3%. I'd say a mini crash is like 20%, and a big crash would be 80%.It's a hiccup at most :) I believe not for those users in Binance.US. Proudhon can get a screenshot of yesterday’s candle of that, and claim his prediction DID become true. Bitcoin from $ATH crashed landed to < $10,000. We salute him. 8) https://media4.giphy.com/media/3o6EhVqAY0JNGNLlU4/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e472tjqo4u7xh4t1yv8vwpz1si5uiah7f4vxf73em3k&rid=giphy.gif Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on October 22, 2021, 10:14:06 AM Bitcoin from $ATH crashed landed to < $10,000. See:Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on October 22, 2021, 11:53:42 PM where are the real time tickers? Did you ask about this? ::)Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD): https://blackhatcoiner.com/price/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/price/[/img] Bitcoin ATH Price: https://blackhatcoiner.com/ATH/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/ATH/[/img] Chain Size: https://blackhatcoiner.com/chainsize/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/chainsize/[/img] Mining Hash Rate: https://blackhatcoiner.com/hashrate/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/hashrate/[/img] Chain Height: https://blackhatcoiner.com/height/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/height/[/img] Blocks to Next Halving: https://blackhatcoiner.com/nexthalvingin/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/nexthalvingin/[/img] Supply: https://blackhatcoiner.com/supply/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/supply/[/img] Total Confirmed Transactions: https://blackhatcoiner.com/totaltx/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/totaltx/[/img] Fee estimation: Low fee: https://blackhatcoiner.com/lowfee/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/lowfee/[/img] Medium fee: https://blackhatcoiner.com/mediumfee/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/mediumfee/[/img] High fee: https://blackhatcoiner.com/highfee/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/highfee/[/img] Do you want me to add something? Maybe an idea? Drop me feedback below! BlackHatCoiner.com — Copyright © 2021 all rights reserved. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on October 23, 2021, 01:53:52 AM Bitcoin from $ATH crashed landed to < $10,000. See:Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on October 23, 2021, 07:25:54 AM where are the real time tickers? Did you ask about this? ::)Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD): https://blackhatcoiner.com/price/ Code: [img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/price/[/img] Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on October 23, 2021, 10:30:44 AM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak.
Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 23, 2021, 11:31:59 AM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak. Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on October 23, 2021, 06:02:56 PM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak. Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH. Oh my!!! Holy shit!!! Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations? I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up.. I understand that anything is possible, but we should be considering what are more likely rather than extreme scenarios, even if extreme scenarios are also possible. I had seen some posts upthread discussing our so far dip (if we want to call it that rather than labelling it as a pause in UPpity), and really if you look at the extreme of the local bottom so far, from $67,017 down to $59,634 we have about a 11% dip, and probably we are out of the noise territory.. so noise might be any dip that is less than 8%.. so we are out of noise territory and nearly into the area that is worthy of writing home to mom.. but not in any kind of panic stage yet.... .. and maybe the meaningful and common dips that attempt to scare the shit out of weak hands would be in the 15% to 25% territory.. and sure I understand that you are getting this 30% number from our previous dips during bull markets.. 30% dips have not been common.. ...but I would still assert that it is less likely to get any kind of dip that is of that extreme while we are passing through noman's land.. which is $55k to $80k... and sure I am not even saying that those considerable dips are not possible because we already know that anything is possible, but the more likely scenario.. especially since we already passed half way through noman's land and also surpassed our previous ATH of $64,895.. would be a continuation of UPpity.. and sure maybe a flash crash down to $55k-ish (which would be 18%-ish).. is reasonably within the cards.. .but anything too much greater than a 18% correction seems to be getting into more extreme scenarios.. and even though I would not rule out the more extreme scenarios from playing out.. I would not be presenting them as "givens" yet.. especially since we have only so far gotten 11% out of the correction, so far.. 18%? sure.. 30% less likely... going up from here.. sure that would be reasonably within our current BTC price posture, too... Not easy to really know these short-term price directions except of attempting to consider what are more likely what are extreme and.. being prepared for any of the scenarios whether extreme or not.. while maybe not overly anticipating extremes that cause you to look like you are just a crazy nutjob, talking your book, disingenuous or perhaps not really understanding the asset class (king daddy) that you are attempting to analyze (again.. not labelling you, Wind_FURY, as any of these.. just responding to the 30% correction in these here times scenario that you brought up).. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vapourminer on October 24, 2021, 11:16:24 AM crashes start around 95% Now explain to your 2011-self that $3000 is a crash :Dif i could find a way to meet my 2011 self and explain the fact 10 years in the future, btc will crash to $3000. as that still is like 300 times its 2011 price of $10. so STACK MOAR CORN. i know exactly what me past self would say:"so, looks like they were right about me doing all these drugs i use. still getting hallucinations." go away tldr dont bother Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 25, 2021, 10:19:07 AM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak. Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH. Oh my!!! Holy shit!!! Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations? I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up.. I understand that anything is possible, but we should be considering what are more likely rather than extreme scenarios, even if extreme scenarios are also possible. I had seen some posts upthread discussing our so far dip (if we want to call it that rather than labelling it as a pause in UPpity), and really if you look at the extreme of the local bottom so far, from $67,017 down to $59,634 we have about a 11% dip, and probably we are out of the noise territory.. so noise might be any dip that is less than 8%.. so we are out of noise territory and nearly into the area that is worthy of writing home to mom.. but not in any kind of panic stage yet.... .. and maybe the meaningful and common dips that attempt to scare the shit out of weak hands would be in the 15% to 25% territory.. and sure I understand that you are getting this 30% number from our previous dips during bull markets.. 30% dips have not been common.. ...but I would still assert that it is less likely to get any kind of dip that is of that extreme while we are passing through noman's land.. which is $55k to $80k... and sure I am not even saying that those considerable dips are not possible because we already know that anything is possible, but the more likely scenario.. especially since we already passed half way through noman's land and also surpassed our previous ATH of $64,895.. would be a continuation of UPpity.. and sure maybe a flash crash down to $55k-ish (which would be 18%-ish).. is reasonably within the cards.. .but anything too much greater than a 18% correction seems to be getting into more extreme scenarios.. and even though I would not rule out the more extreme scenarios from playing out.. I would not be presenting them as "givens" yet.. especially since we have only so far gotten 11% out of the correction, so far.. 18%? sure.. 30% less likely... going up from here.. sure that would be reasonably within our current BTC price posture, too... Not easy to really know these short-term price directions except of attempting to consider what are more likely what are extreme and.. being prepared for any of the scenarios whether extreme or not.. while maybe not overly anticipating extremes that cause you to look like you are just a crazy nutjob, talking your book, disingenuous or perhaps not really understanding the asset class (king daddy) that you are attempting to analyze (again.. not labelling you, Wind_FURY, as any of these.. just responding to the 30% correction in these here times scenario that you brought up).. You’re right, it is “less likely”. I was merely illustrating the possibilities, and it was only an opinion based on the fact that Bitcoin is still indeed as volatile as it was during 2017. But extreme? I believe not. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on October 25, 2021, 03:12:32 PM [edited out] You’re right, it is “less likely”. I was merely illustrating the possibilities, and it was only an opinion based on the fact that Bitcoin is still indeed as volatile as it was during 2017. But extreme? I believe not. Don't get me wrong.. For sure I consider 30% corrections to be possible in this cycle, just like it happened in the 2017 cycle several times. I was largely commenting about what seems to be our price posture at this particular moment in terms of passing through the zone of the previous ATH.. which seems to make it a bit more difficult to achieve those same levels of correction (such as 30%).. not impossible, but just more difficult. I understand that this particular prediction game is aiming at early December, and there are even some people who have been postulating that the whole cycle could be over by this calendar year... and sure all of that could be correct - but with bitcoin having a more mature market including some of the BIGGER players around (including additional abilities to down vote the BTC price), it could take several more quarters for the peak for the cycle to play out.. and sure if we go into 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or even as far as the 3rd quarter of 2022, then it would start to have really strong odds of having quite a few 30% draw downs along the way, even while overall going up. Interesting times for sure, and when we get into those BIGGER levels of corrections - even getting into the 20% arena, there are quite a few who end up getting shaken out, just like you suggested in your earlier post. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on October 29, 2021, 08:07:52 AM [edited out] You’re right, it is “less likely”. I was merely illustrating the possibilities, and it was only an opinion based on the fact that Bitcoin is still indeed as volatile as it was during 2017. But extreme? I believe not. Don't get me wrong.. For sure I consider 30% corrections to be possible in this cycle, just like it happened in the 2017 cycle several times. I was largely commenting about what seems to be our price posture at this particular moment in terms of passing through the zone of the previous ATH.. which seems to make it a bit more difficult to achieve those same levels of correction (such as 30%).. not impossible, but just more difficult. “In any particular moment” anything can happen, I humbly believe “this particular moment” is not a special case. Quote I understand that this particular prediction game is aiming at early December, and there are even some people who have been postulating that the whole cycle could be over by this calendar year... and sure all of that could be correct - but with bitcoin having a more mature market including some of the BIGGER players around (including additional abilities to down vote the BTC price), it could take several more quarters for the peak for the cycle to play out.. and sure if we go into 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or even as far as the 3rd quarter of 2022, then it would start to have really strong odds of having quite a few 30% draw downs along the way, even while overall going up. Interesting times for sure, and when we get into those BIGGER levels of corrections - even getting into the 20% arena, there are quite a few who end up getting shaken out, just like you suggested in your earlier post. Because of macro-economic events, if you’re researching, they might prove us wrong in believing that Bitcoin’s surging bull market continues all thoughout 2022. Maybe it can, but only until first half of 2022. But it’s a test for Bitcoin, the toughest test. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on October 29, 2021, 03:33:24 PM [edited out] You’re right, it is “less likely”. I was merely illustrating the possibilities, and it was only an opinion based on the fact that Bitcoin is still indeed as volatile as it was during 2017. But extreme? I believe not. Don't get me wrong.. For sure I consider 30% corrections to be possible in this cycle, just like it happened in the 2017 cycle several times. I was largely commenting about what seems to be our price posture at this particular moment in terms of passing through the zone of the previous ATH.. which seems to make it a bit more difficult to achieve those same levels of correction (such as 30%).. not impossible, but just more difficult. “In any particular moment” anything can happen, I humbly believe “this particular moment” is not a special case. Good. And, of course, you can look at BTC's price dynamics in any way that you like, whether those kinds of theories about the existence of noman's land is helpful to you or not. Seems to me that if you treat bitcoin like any other asset, then you are prone to get yourself in trouble in terms of calling tops way too early.. which could either cause you to sell too much too early or failure to adequately prepare for more up that is on its way... but whatever, do what you like. I understand that this particular prediction game is aiming at early December, and there are even some people who have been postulating that the whole cycle could be over by this calendar year... and sure all of that could be correct - but with bitcoin having a more mature market including some of the BIGGER players around (including additional abilities to down vote the BTC price), it could take several more quarters for the peak for the cycle to play out.. and sure if we go into 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or even as far as the 3rd quarter of 2022, then it would start to have really strong odds of having quite a few 30% draw downs along the way, even while overall going up. Interesting times for sure, and when we get into those BIGGER levels of corrections - even getting into the 20% arena, there are quite a few who end up getting shaken out, just like you suggested in your earlier post. Because of macro-economic events, if you’re researching, they might prove us wrong in believing that Bitcoin’s surging bull market continues all thoughout 2022. Maybe it can, but only until first half of 2022. But it’s a test for Bitcoin, the toughest test. Largely I make those kinds of proclamations because I believe that it is better to prepare yourself financially and psychologically for any of those kinds of scenarios that are reasonably within possibilities of happening, and prepare less for less likely scenarios. So in the past year or so, we had frequently been hearing theories that the BTC was cycle was going to top out this calendar year, so you could end up selling too much BTC too soon or failing to prepare for more UP if you end up being wrong about the top of the cycle being this calendar year. I would also suggest that in BTC there are a decent number of HODLers who are not particularly attached to whether the top ends up being this calendar year versus if the top ends up dragging out into 2022 and potentially as late as the 3rd quarter of 2022.. and so surely if you are trying to time the tops and bottoms you have more potential issues in terms of making mistakes.. but if you employ strategies that are not as much concerned about timing, then you still may well be able to profit from the ups and downs of BTC (which I frequently assert to be one of the most inevitable of things in BTClandia) without attempting to engage in rash behaviors in regards to attempting to figure out exactly when the top might be or how much of a top the top might be.,. so in that regard, you might be asserting that HODLers are negatively affected by the extreme draw downs that have frequently happened in BTC (especially after explosive tops), but if HODLers are already prepared (both financially and psychologically) to just HODL through those kinds of seemingly crazy-ass cycles (maybe shaving small portions on the way up rather than shaving large portions), then it is harder to imply that they are damaged by such extreme price movements. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 01, 2021, 10:12:03 AM The only part of your viewpoint I’m disagreeing with is, the point you said that the peak of the current cycle might take several more quarters to play out. For me, Bitcoin will go through the same cycles, but it will take several such cycles of price discovery to play out.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 01, 2021, 04:12:23 PM The only part of your viewpoint I’m disagreeing with is, the point you said that the peak of the current cycle might take several more quarters to play out. For me, Bitcoin will go through the same cycles, but it will take several such cycles of price discovery to play out. I think that the point is that none of us know how long it will take for this cycle to play out, and/or if the cycle is going to look like the historical cycles or if it will take some kind of new form that causes the use of cycles (or the 4 -year fractal) to become a less convincing way of framing BTC price expectations. So, if we speculate that there still is going to be a kind of four year cycle that could end this calendar year or it could drag out until the 3rd quarter of 2022.. those all seem somewhat reasonably plausible in terms of attempting to frame expectations regarding more likely scenarios.. even if you or I might assign higher/lower probabilities to certain ways of attempting to frame the matter. Personally, I do believe that it is better to attempt to prepare for a decently large variety of scenarios even ones that go beyond your expectations.. but of course, your level of preparations should also attempt to be proportional too.. For example, I will admit that this passage through noman's land of $55k-ish to $80k-ish seems to be taking longer than I expected, but I still don't consider the noman's land thesis to be negated.. at least not yet... and even if any of us might frame some kind of "most likely to happen" scenario, if some variation of that happens or it gets completely obliterated by subsequent events, that still might not mean that our earlier framing of the matter was wrong.. but we still might need to consider if there might have been factors that we did fail to account for that ended up causing our previous prediction to be worse than it could have been... to the extent that making predictions even matter very much to tactics and strategies that we might have already set up that may well not matter to whether our predictions come true or not.. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on November 02, 2021, 07:59:16 AM ---snipped--- Bitcoin price prediction in short term can be otherwise, we are all just predicting what could happen, but likely what will occur in short term can be against our analyses and speculations. But you are very right about one thing, even if what was analyzed and predicted was inaccurate, there is still accuracy in the long term spiculation which is all-time-high. The price of bitcoin can break resistance or fall below support, but the overall result of the price after long time is all-time-high.Bitcoin had gone viral, many people have known bitcoin but many people are yet to invest, this is indicated in the total number of people making use of bitcoin and in bitcoin's marketcap which is just still $1.16 trillion in just 11 years, ceri it will get to over 2 trillion and later over 5 trillion later as bitcoin is easily accessible and people are getting to understand more about bitcoin. About the long term bitcoin price, with the wealth in the world and the constant depreciation of fiat by the government and the increasing adoption of bitcoin, the $60000 today will be a price bitcoin price will never dropped to in the future. Although, this can be long, but it will definitely happen. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on November 02, 2021, 07:36:37 PM I don't think bitcoin will reach a price of 2 or 5 Trillion, but maybe up to 100,000 US dollars. The 2 to 5 trillion that I meant is the marketcap not the price. At a price of $63400, bitcoin marketcap is 1.2 trillion. At 2 trillion marketcap, the price will not be more than $120000 or will be around that price. Marketcap is completely different from the price. This can be useful for you: Market Cap = Price x Circulating supply Price = Marketcap ÷ Circulatory supply Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 02, 2021, 08:34:47 PM ---snipped--- Bitcoin price prediction in short term can be otherwise, we are all just predicting what could happen, but likely what will occur in short term can be against our analyses and speculations. But you are very right about one thing, even if what was analyzed and predicted was inaccurate, there is still accuracy in the long term spiculation which is all-time-high. The price of bitcoin can break resistance or fall below support, but the overall result of the price after long time is all-time-high.Bitcoin had gone viral, many people have known bitcoin but many people are yet to invest, this is indicated in the total number of people making use of bitcoin and in bitcoin's marketcap which is just still $1.16 trillion in just 11 years, ceri it will get to over 2 trillion and later over 5 trillion later as bitcoin is easily accessible and people are getting to understand more about bitcoin. About the long term bitcoin price, with the wealth in the world and the constant depreciation of fiat by the government and the increasing adoption of bitcoin, the $60000 today will be a price bitcoin price will never dropped to in the future. Although, this can be long, but it will definitely happen. I see that Charles-Tim already addressed your misunderstanding regarding what he was referring to in regards to Bitcoin's market cap. From your overall comment, I get the sense that you are not quite grasping what bitcoin brings to the table in terms of your idea that bitcoin might not currently be a good investment based on how its price has recently gone up. An investment might also consider 4-10 years or longer in terms of both getting a stake in bitcoin and other actions to either build the stake or maintain it.. prior to even considering selling or liquidation plans that are further into the future... long term, again. A lot of people are going to fail/refuse to take adequate steps to preserve their own wealth because they either fail/refuse to buy into bitcoin and/or try to time short-term BTC price moves that likely are not going to mean much of anything in terms of both figuring out an investment plan and following through with some meaningful action such as buying regularly to build up a stack of bitcoin to the extent that you are able to - whether that is $10 per week, $100 per week or some more aggressive investment approach. Sure this thread is talking about short-term speculation regarding the BTC price on December 7 (slightly more than a month from now), so we are a bit off topic to be getting into the investment topic - even though frequently even investors speculate in the short-term too... but may or may not change their actions (such as ongoingly buying/investing in bitcoin) based on such short-term price predictions. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on November 03, 2021, 05:25:21 AM Let's start using money supply instead of market cap when it comes to bitcoin.
The problem with using market cap is that people compare it with stocks (that have market cap) then see their total market cap is smaller and it scares them when they compare it with bitcoin's that has surpassed $1 trillion and what it will surpass when it goes above $1 million price. Using money supply makes more sense for a currency and it helps us make more useful comparisons such as the fact that the world's total money supply is said to be around $5 quadrillion ($5000 trillion) while bitcoin's money supply is only $1.18 trillion. In other words this one of a kind global decentralized currency only has 0.023% of total money supply! I say it will reach at least 10% in the next decade as we get closer to mass adoption which means a price of $26.5 million per bitcoin or better said 26 cents for 1 satoshi. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 03, 2021, 05:48:40 AM Let's start using money supply instead of market cap when it comes to bitcoin. The problem with using market cap is that people compare it with stocks (that have market cap) then see their total market cap is smaller and it scares them when they compare it with bitcoin's that has surpassed $1 trillion and what it will surpass when it goes above $1 million price. Using money supply makes more sense for a currency and it helps us make more useful comparisons such as the fact that the world's total money supply is said to be around $5 quadrillion ($5000 trillion) while bitcoin's money supply is only $1.18 trillion. In other words this one of a kind global decentralized currency only has 0.023% of total money supply! I say it will reach at least 10% in the next decade as we get closer to mass adoption which means a price of $26.5 million per bitcoin or better said 26 cents for 1 satoshi. The total bitcoin supply, including lost coins (and coins not yet issued), equals 2.1 quadrillion satoshis, so less than half of the current 5 quadrillion that you pointed out. So using your $5quadrillion number.... 5/2.1 = $2.38 per satoshi... You said $.26 per satoshi - our numbers are not matching. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on November 03, 2021, 10:10:53 AM The total bitcoin supply, including lost coins (and coins not yet issued), equals 2.1 quadrillion satoshis, so less than half of the current 5 quadrillion that you pointed out. So using your $5quadrillion number.... 5/2.1 = $2.38 per satoshi... You said $.26 per satoshi - our numbers are not matching. That's because you used supply not money supply.When we are talking about total money supply in the world (ie the $5 quadrillion) we are counting all currencies of all countries in the whole world. But we can't just add their total supply, for example Venezuela if I'm not mistaken has printed 2100 quadrillion VEF which is already bigger than the total 5 quadrillion total. So what we do is that we convert them all to a single currency using the exchange rate (VEF to USD) then sum it all up. Which is the same as calculating market cap for bitcoin (supply * exchange rate). There are currently 18.8 million bitcoins in circulation with price of $63k which is equal to about $1.18 trillion in USD. $1.18 / $5000 *100= 0.0236% $26.5 million * 18.8 = $498 trillion / $5000 trillion = ~10% Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 04, 2021, 11:55:42 AM The only part of your viewpoint I’m disagreeing with is, the point you said that the peak of the current cycle might take several more quarters to play out. For me, Bitcoin will go through the same cycles, but it will take several such cycles of price discovery to play out. I think that the point is that none of us know how long it will take for this cycle to play out, and/or if the cycle is going to look like the historical cycles or if it will take some kind of new form that causes the use of cycles (or the 4 -year fractal) to become a less convincing way of framing BTC price expectations. So, if we speculate that there still is going to be a kind of four year cycle that could end this calendar year or it could drag out until the 3rd quarter of 2022.. those all seem somewhat reasonably plausible in terms of attempting to frame expectations regarding more likely scenarios.. even if you or I might assign higher/lower probabilities to certain ways of attempting to frame the matter. Personally, I do believe that it is better to attempt to prepare for a decently large variety of scenarios even ones that go beyond your expectations.. but of course, your level of preparations should also attempt to be proportional too.. You’re right that “no one knows”, but it’s not merely a “yes or no” situation either. There’s only probabilities. Then what, in your opinion, would be the probability of this current bull cycle to continue longer than the length of the historical bull cycles of the past? More than 70%? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on November 04, 2021, 03:08:30 PM probability of this current bull cycle to continue longer than the length of the historical bull cycles of the past? Based on bitcoinaverage.com (https://bitcoinaverage.com/en/bitcoin-price/btc-to-usd), I wouldn't be surprised if bull cycles continue to occur less frequently (and thus become longer):https://loyce.club/other/bullcycle.png I don't think guessing the probability makes sense though: it won't be possible to verify this prediction afterwards anyway. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 04, 2021, 04:01:29 PM The only part of your viewpoint I’m disagreeing with is, the point you said that the peak of the current cycle might take several more quarters to play out. For me, Bitcoin will go through the same cycles, but it will take several such cycles of price discovery to play out. I think that the point is that none of us know how long it will take for this cycle to play out, and/or if the cycle is going to look like the historical cycles or if it will take some kind of new form that causes the use of cycles (or the 4 -year fractal) to become a less convincing way of framing BTC price expectations. So, if we speculate that there still is going to be a kind of four year cycle that could end this calendar year or it could drag out until the 3rd quarter of 2022.. those all seem somewhat reasonably plausible in terms of attempting to frame expectations regarding more likely scenarios.. even if you or I might assign higher/lower probabilities to certain ways of attempting to frame the matter. Personally, I do believe that it is better to attempt to prepare for a decently large variety of scenarios even ones that go beyond your expectations.. but of course, your level of preparations should also attempt to be proportional too.. You’re right that “no one knows”, but it’s not merely a “yes or no” situation either. There’s only probabilities. Then what, in your opinion, would be the probability of this current bull cycle to continue longer than the length of the historical bull cycles of the past? More than 70%? For sure, whether we are referring to bitcoin price cycles or even various price points on the cycles there can be a lot of deviation from expectations in terms of how far from the expected mean whether we are referring to whether the price is above or below the mean or the quantity. The combination of the three models that I have liked to attempt to use because they seem to be most credible in current times would be the stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.. so yeah, both the stock to flow and four-year fractal contain the four-year cycle built into them, so quite a bit of weight is given to the prognostications that stay within the confines of the four year parameters, so yeah more weight would be given to expectations that would keep the price runs falling within time frames that they had occurred in the past - again within 4-year parameters. Am I making no sense yet, Loyce? I agree it does not make a lot of sense to plug percentages into whether BTC prices peak in this calendar year (less than two months left - presuming the peak is higher than it has already gotten - $67,017) or whether the price peak for this cycle drags out until 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter of 2022.. But as I think about it, maybe I can force myself into a way of reconsidering the whole matter and come out with assignments of probabilities something like this: Already peaked out in 2021 at $67,017: 41.5% Peaks out higher than $60,017 at some point in 2021: 18.5% Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 17.5% Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 10.5% Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 7% Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022: 5% Sure, somewhat I am shooting these numbers out of my ass, but they do add up to 100%... and to answer your question Wind_FURY, it appears that my numbers for peaking out in 2021 add up to about 60%, so that leaves about 40% odds that they peak out after 2021. And as I think through the matter.. assigning percentages did seem to help me to attempt to put some more specific context in my thoughts... so it appears that even if we might not be able to verify exactly how right we are, we still can assign probabilities to timeline and to price (here's one that I did regarding BTC price 5 days ago) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876).. and sure the more that we attempt to structure those matters the harder it is to exactly pinpoint them.. and we can ONLY do our best to attempt to estimate from our own perspectives (which is also something that does not exactly stay static). So, not being able to verify whether we were right or not because we are not making 100% assignments to black or white on x date, but it still seems to help us to get through some of our thinking about if we might be assigning (even on a personal level) too high or too low towards the occurrence of certain scenarios. Members here are going to have differing views on how they assign probabilities to these matters, and maybe few of us have thought about how to specifically assign to timeline in a similar way as we might assign to price.... but it makes sense that we do need to consider both timeline and price, and just calling one might not be as helpful as being able to attempt to assign probabilities to both (each of them). We can move this over to another thread, too because it seems to be deviating quite a bit, no? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 05, 2021, 07:35:26 AM probability of this current bull cycle to continue longer than the length of the historical bull cycles of the past? Based on bitcoinaverage.com (https://bitcoinaverage.com/en/bitcoin-price/btc-to-usd), I wouldn't be surprised if bull cycles continue to occur less frequently (and thus become longer):https://loyce.club/other/bullcycle.png I don't think guessing the probability makes sense though: it won't be possible to verify this prediction afterwards anyway. That’s why it’s called a “probability”. The only part of your viewpoint I’m disagreeing with is, the point you said that the peak of the current cycle might take several more quarters to play out. For me, Bitcoin will go through the same cycles, but it will take several such cycles of price discovery to play out. I think that the point is that none of us know how long it will take for this cycle to play out, and/or if the cycle is going to look like the historical cycles or if it will take some kind of new form that causes the use of cycles (or the 4 -year fractal) to become a less convincing way of framing BTC price expectations. So, if we speculate that there still is going to be a kind of four year cycle that could end this calendar year or it could drag out until the 3rd quarter of 2022.. those all seem somewhat reasonably plausible in terms of attempting to frame expectations regarding more likely scenarios.. even if you or I might assign higher/lower probabilities to certain ways of attempting to frame the matter. Personally, I do believe that it is better to attempt to prepare for a decently large variety of scenarios even ones that go beyond your expectations.. but of course, your level of preparations should also attempt to be proportional too.. You’re right that “no one knows”, but it’s not merely a “yes or no” situation either. There’s only probabilities. Then what, in your opinion, would be the probability of this current bull cycle to continue longer than the length of the historical bull cycles of the past? More than 70%? For sure, whether we are referring to bitcoin price cycles or even various price points on the cycles there can be a lot of deviation from expectations in terms of how far from the expected mean whether we are referring to whether the price is above or below the mean or the quantity. The combination of the three models that I have liked to attempt to use because they seem to be most credible in current times would be the stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.. so yeah, both the stock to flow and four-year fractal contain the four-year cycle built into them, so quite a bit of weight is given to the prognostications that stay within the confines of the four year parameters, so yeah more weight would be given to expectations that would keep the price runs falling within time frames that they had occurred in the past - again within 4-year parameters. Am I making no sense yet, Loyce? I agree it does not make a lot of sense to plug percentages into whether BTC prices peak in this calendar year (less than two months left - presuming the peak is higher than it has already gotten - $67,017) or whether the price peak for this cycle drags out until 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter of 2022.. But as I think about it, maybe I can force myself into a way of reconsidering the whole matter and come out with assignments of probabilities something like this: Already peaked out in 2021 at $67,017: 41.5% Peaks out higher than $60,017 at some point in 2021: 18.5% Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 17.5% Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 10.5% Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 7% Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022: 5% Sure, somewhat I am shooting these numbers out of my ass, but they do add up to 100%... and to answer your question Wind_FURY, it appears that my numbers for peaking out in 2021 add up to about 60%, so that leaves about 40% odds that they peak out after 2021. And as I think through the matter.. assigning percentages did seem to help me to attempt to put some more specific context in my thoughts... so it appears that even if we might not be able to verify exactly how right we are, we still can assign probabilities to timeline and to price (here's one that I did regarding BTC price 5 days ago) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876).. and sure the more that we attempt to structure those matters the harder it is to exactly pinpoint them.. and we can ONLY do our best to attempt to estimate from our own perspectives (which is also something that does not exactly stay static). So, not being able to verify whether we were right or not because we are not making 100% assignments to black or white on x date, but it still seems to help us to get through some of our thinking about if we might be assigning (even on a personal level) too high or too low towards the occurrence of certain scenarios. Members here are going to have differing views on how they assign probabilities to these matters, and maybe few of us have thought about how to specifically assign to timeline in a similar way as we might assign to price.... but it makes sense that we do need to consider both timeline and price, and just calling one might not be as helpful as being able to attempt to assign probabilities to both (each of them). We can move this over to another thread, too because it seems to be deviating quite a bit, no? Plus what should we consider a cycle “a longer” than average cycle than that of a historical cycle of the past? More than 6 months, 12 months, or 24 months? Because a cycle lasting by merely 3 or 4 months more shouldn’t be considered a “longer cycle”, no? If 12 more months longer, what would be the probability of that happening? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 05, 2021, 03:46:04 PM For sure, whether we are referring to bitcoin price cycles or even various price points on the cycles there can be a lot of deviation from expectations in terms of how far from the expected mean whether we are referring to whether the price is above or below the mean or the quantity. The combination of the three models that I have liked to attempt to use because they seem to be most credible in current times would be the stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.. so yeah, both the stock to flow and four-year fractal contain the four-year cycle built into them, so quite a bit of weight is given to the prognostications that stay within the confines of the four year parameters, so yeah more weight would be given to expectations that would keep the price runs falling within time frames that they had occurred in the past - again within 4-year parameters. Am I making no sense yet, Loyce? I agree it does not make a lot of sense to plug percentages into whether BTC prices peak in this calendar year (less than two months left - presuming the peak is higher than it has already gotten - $67,017) or whether the price peak for this cycle drags out until 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter of 2022.. But as I think about it, maybe I can force myself into a way of reconsidering the whole matter and come out with assignments of probabilities something like this: Already peaked out in 2021 at $67,017: 41.5% Peaks out higher than $60,017 at some point in 2021: 18.5% Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 17.5% Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 10.5% Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 7% Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022: 5% Sure, somewhat I am shooting these numbers out of my ass, but they do add up to 100%... and to answer your question Wind_FURY, it appears that my numbers for peaking out in 2021 add up to about 60%, so that leaves about 40% odds that they peak out after 2021. And as I think through the matter.. assigning percentages did seem to help me to attempt to put some more specific context in my thoughts... so it appears that even if we might not be able to verify exactly how right we are, we still can assign probabilities to timeline and to price (here's one that I did regarding BTC price 5 days ago) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876).. and sure the more that we attempt to structure those matters the harder it is to exactly pinpoint them.. and we can ONLY do our best to attempt to estimate from our own perspectives (which is also something that does not exactly stay static). So, not being able to verify whether we were right or not because we are not making 100% assignments to black or white on x date, but it still seems to help us to get through some of our thinking about if we might be assigning (even on a personal level) too high or too low towards the occurrence of certain scenarios. Members here are going to have differing views on how they assign probabilities to these matters, and maybe few of us have thought about how to specifically assign to timeline in a similar way as we might assign to price.... but it makes sense that we do need to consider both timeline and price, and just calling one might not be as helpful as being able to attempt to assign probabilities to both (each of them). We can move this over to another thread, too because it seems to be deviating quite a bit, no? Plus what should we consider a cycle “a longer” than average cycle than that of a historical cycle of the past? More than 6 months, 12 months, or 24 months? Because a cycle lasting by merely 3 or 4 months more shouldn’t be considered a “longer cycle”, no? If 12 more months longer, what would be the probability of that happening? Hey.. as soon as I figured I have addressed your earlier question, you get into some other area. Do you have any comments on the main part that I already addressed? Asked and answered no? If there is a time to quibble then at least if we stay topic, then that would be better, no? Furthermore, you seem to want to get into the weeds of events that I have already outlined (at least from my perspective) to be quite unrealistic anyhow.. so who should give any shits, besides you Wind_FURY, about those outlier events that drags us way further in the weeds? Sure it could affect how you think about what may more may happen by December 7 of this year? In other words, should we not be attempting to focus on more likely scenarios than talking about some thing that I have already labelled to have less than 5% chance of happening (if that)? I mentioned that the actual cycle could end up getting dragged out as late as 3rd quarter 2022 rather than happening within the range of the calendar year expectations.. yeah, if you want to get into supercycle theories, then that surely does seem to be a new topic.. and maybe perhaps you are also assigning higher than 5% odds that this particular cycle could drag out beyond the 3rd quarter of 2022 (which also seem to be the opposite of what you were asserting in your earlier post when you seemed to have been poo-pooing my supposition that this particular cycle could even go beyond this calendar year). I personally don't see any need to get further into the weeds than we have already gotten. Perhaps at the start of this thread even OP and some others were suggesting the top of this cycle may well end up being this calendar year? and surely we can already see that concern in this thread would at least be around something like what's happening this calendar year, such as by December 7. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 06, 2021, 11:45:03 AM For sure, whether we are referring to bitcoin price cycles or even various price points on the cycles there can be a lot of deviation from expectations in terms of how far from the expected mean whether we are referring to whether the price is above or below the mean or the quantity. The combination of the three models that I have liked to attempt to use because they seem to be most credible in current times would be the stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.. so yeah, both the stock to flow and four-year fractal contain the four-year cycle built into them, so quite a bit of weight is given to the prognostications that stay within the confines of the four year parameters, so yeah more weight would be given to expectations that would keep the price runs falling within time frames that they had occurred in the past - again within 4-year parameters. Am I making no sense yet, Loyce? I agree it does not make a lot of sense to plug percentages into whether BTC prices peak in this calendar year (less than two months left - presuming the peak is higher than it has already gotten - $67,017) or whether the price peak for this cycle drags out until 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter of 2022.. But as I think about it, maybe I can force myself into a way of reconsidering the whole matter and come out with assignments of probabilities something like this: Already peaked out in 2021 at $67,017: 41.5% Peaks out higher than $60,017 at some point in 2021: 18.5% Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 17.5% Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 10.5% Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 7% Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022: 5% Sure, somewhat I am shooting these numbers out of my ass, but they do add up to 100%... and to answer your question Wind_FURY, it appears that my numbers for peaking out in 2021 add up to about 60%, so that leaves about 40% odds that they peak out after 2021. And as I think through the matter.. assigning percentages did seem to help me to attempt to put some more specific context in my thoughts... so it appears that even if we might not be able to verify exactly how right we are, we still can assign probabilities to timeline and to price (here's one that I did regarding BTC price 5 days ago) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876).. and sure the more that we attempt to structure those matters the harder it is to exactly pinpoint them.. and we can ONLY do our best to attempt to estimate from our own perspectives (which is also something that does not exactly stay static). So, not being able to verify whether we were right or not because we are not making 100% assignments to black or white on x date, but it still seems to help us to get through some of our thinking about if we might be assigning (even on a personal level) too high or too low towards the occurrence of certain scenarios. Members here are going to have differing views on how they assign probabilities to these matters, and maybe few of us have thought about how to specifically assign to timeline in a similar way as we might assign to price.... but it makes sense that we do need to consider both timeline and price, and just calling one might not be as helpful as being able to attempt to assign probabilities to both (each of them). We can move this over to another thread, too because it seems to be deviating quite a bit, no? Plus what should we consider a cycle “a longer” than average cycle than that of a historical cycle of the past? More than 6 months, 12 months, or 24 months? Because a cycle lasting by merely 3 or 4 months more shouldn’t be considered a “longer cycle”, no? If 12 more months longer, what would be the probability of that happening? Hey.. as soon as I figured I have addressed your earlier question, you get into some other area. Do you have any comments on the main part that I already addressed? Asked and answered no? If there is a time to quibble then at least if we stay topic, then that would be better, no? Furthermore, you seem to want to get into the weeds of events that I have already outlined (at least from my perspective) to be quite unrealistic anyhow.. so who should give any shits, besides you Wind_FURY, about those outlier events that drags us way further in the weeds? Sure it could affect how you think about what may more may happen by December 7 of this year? In other words, should we not be attempting to focus on more likely scenarios than talking about some thing that I have already labelled to have less than 5% chance of happening (if that)? I mentioned that the actual cycle could end up getting dragged out as late as 3rd quarter 2022 rather than happening within the range of the calendar year expectations.. yeah, if you want to get into supercycle theories, then that surely does seem to be a new topic.. and maybe perhaps you are also assigning higher than 5% odds that this particular cycle could drag out beyond the 3rd quarter of 2022 (which also seem to be the opposite of what you were asserting in your earlier post when you seemed to have been poo-pooing my supposition that this particular cycle could even go beyond this calendar year). I personally don't see any need to get further into the weeds than we have already gotten. Perhaps at the start of this thread even OP and some others were suggesting the top of this cycle may well end up being this calendar year? and surely we can already see that concern in this thread would at least be around something like what's happening this calendar year, such as by December 7. You want me to give you a reply, but where/how did you get 5% probability? What’s the basis for those probabilities? I believe it would definitely be less than 5% if the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tapers/increases rates, which I believe they won’t. More than 5% probability if the Fed continues the balancing act. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 06, 2021, 07:06:47 PM For sure, whether we are referring to bitcoin price cycles or even various price points on the cycles there can be a lot of deviation from expectations in terms of how far from the expected mean whether we are referring to whether the price is above or below the mean or the quantity. The combination of the three models that I have liked to attempt to use because they seem to be most credible in current times would be the stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.. so yeah, both the stock to flow and four-year fractal contain the four-year cycle built into them, so quite a bit of weight is given to the prognostications that stay within the confines of the four year parameters, so yeah more weight would be given to expectations that would keep the price runs falling within time frames that they had occurred in the past - again within 4-year parameters. Am I making no sense yet, Loyce? I agree it does not make a lot of sense to plug percentages into whether BTC prices peak in this calendar year (less than two months left - presuming the peak is higher than it has already gotten - $67,017) or whether the price peak for this cycle drags out until 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter of 2022.. But as I think about it, maybe I can force myself into a way of reconsidering the whole matter and come out with assignments of probabilities something like this: Already peaked out in 2021 at $67,017: 41.5% Peaks out higher than $60,017 at some point in 2021: 18.5% Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 17.5% Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 10.5% Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 7% Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022: 5% Sure, somewhat I am shooting these numbers out of my ass, but they do add up to 100%... and to answer your question Wind_FURY, it appears that my numbers for peaking out in 2021 add up to about 60%, so that leaves about 40% odds that they peak out after 2021. And as I think through the matter.. assigning percentages did seem to help me to attempt to put some more specific context in my thoughts... so it appears that even if we might not be able to verify exactly how right we are, we still can assign probabilities to timeline and to price (here's one that I did regarding BTC price 5 days ago) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876).. and sure the more that we attempt to structure those matters the harder it is to exactly pinpoint them.. and we can ONLY do our best to attempt to estimate from our own perspectives (which is also something that does not exactly stay static). So, not being able to verify whether we were right or not because we are not making 100% assignments to black or white on x date, but it still seems to help us to get through some of our thinking about if we might be assigning (even on a personal level) too high or too low towards the occurrence of certain scenarios. Members here are going to have differing views on how they assign probabilities to these matters, and maybe few of us have thought about how to specifically assign to timeline in a similar way as we might assign to price.... but it makes sense that we do need to consider both timeline and price, and just calling one might not be as helpful as being able to attempt to assign probabilities to both (each of them). We can move this over to another thread, too because it seems to be deviating quite a bit, no? Plus what should we consider a cycle “a longer” than average cycle than that of a historical cycle of the past? More than 6 months, 12 months, or 24 months? Because a cycle lasting by merely 3 or 4 months more shouldn’t be considered a “longer cycle”, no? If 12 more months longer, what would be the probability of that happening? Hey.. as soon as I figured I have addressed your earlier question, you get into some other area. Do you have any comments on the main part that I already addressed? Asked and answered no? If there is a time to quibble then at least if we stay topic, then that would be better, no? Furthermore, you seem to want to get into the weeds of events that I have already outlined (at least from my perspective) to be quite unrealistic anyhow.. so who should give any shits, besides you Wind_FURY, about those outlier events that drags us way further in the weeds? Sure it could affect how you think about what may more may happen by December 7 of this year? In other words, should we not be attempting to focus on more likely scenarios than talking about some thing that I have already labelled to have less than 5% chance of happening (if that)? I mentioned that the actual cycle could end up getting dragged out as late as 3rd quarter 2022 rather than happening within the range of the calendar year expectations.. yeah, if you want to get into supercycle theories, then that surely does seem to be a new topic.. and maybe perhaps you are also assigning higher than 5% odds that this particular cycle could drag out beyond the 3rd quarter of 2022 (which also seem to be the opposite of what you were asserting in your earlier post when you seemed to have been poo-pooing my supposition that this particular cycle could even go beyond this calendar year). I personally don't see any need to get further into the weeds than we have already gotten. Perhaps at the start of this thread even OP and some others were suggesting the top of this cycle may well end up being this calendar year? and surely we can already see that concern in this thread would at least be around something like what's happening this calendar year, such as by December 7. You want me to give you a reply, but where/how did you get 5% probability? What’s the basis for those probabilities? I believe it would definitely be less than 5% if the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tapers/increases rates, which I believe they won’t. More than 5% probability if the Fed continues the balancing act. Yes, it would be nice if you could at least attempt to stick to the topic that you raised (or responded to) before merely ignoring the topic and moving onto some other new question.. as I already mentioned. I do not have any basis for my numbers that I would like to attempt to elaborate.. and I likely need no basis beyond asserting those approximations to be my opinion about what I considered my best estimate of the probabilities at the time that I made the post. Of course, if data changes and time passes probabilities likely change too, including assessments about what is happening and/or perhaps more important questions that might end up coming to the surface. By the way, your adding of a macro factor that you believe is not likely to happen but affects when the bitcoin cycle might top seems a bit strange... Yes any kind of certain future event may or may not happen.. and sure you can suggest that kind of event (or any other event) might end up affecting all of the estimates.. depending upon when it happens, if it were to happen - to the extent that it is currently not known and merely something that could happen.. there are a lot of things that "could" happen that may or may not cause the tweaking of estimates.. to the extent that they might not already be considered in the current estimates.. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on November 09, 2021, 07:13:06 AM Already feeling $100k vibes for this game?
Anyone else? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 09, 2021, 07:20:23 AM I do not have any basis for my numbers that I would like to attempt to elaborate.. and I likely need no basis beyond asserting those approximations to be my opinion about what I considered my best estimate of the probabilities at the time that I made the post. Of course, if data changes and time passes probabilities likely change too, including assessments about what is happening and/or perhaps more important questions that might end up coming to the surface. Then what more can I say if there isn’t any basis? There’s nothing more to debate. It’s your opinion, I respected it, and left it at that without debate, without comment. Quote By the way, your adding of a macro factor that you believe is not likely to happen but affects when the bitcoin cycle might top seems a bit strange... Yes any kind of certain future event may or may not happen.. and sure you can suggest that kind of event (or any other event) might end up affecting all of the estimates.. depending upon when it happens, if it were to happen - to the extent that it is currently not known and merely something that could happen.. there are a lot of things that "could" happen that may or may not cause the tweaking of estimates.. to the extent that they might not already be considered in the current estimates.. What happens to the different assets-market all over the world is simply part of an “expression” of the “macro factor”, and the Bitcoin market is a part of the global asset-market. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on November 09, 2021, 09:12:17 AM Already feeling $100k vibes for this game? No. Why would I turn bearish now? ;)Anyone else? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on November 09, 2021, 10:57:26 AM Already feeling $100k vibes for this game? No. Why would I turn bearish now? ;)Anyone else? Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on November 09, 2021, 11:04:26 AM Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? pooya87 of course!341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on November 09, 2021, 12:53:15 PM Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on November 09, 2021, 07:38:43 PM Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? I will be surprised if bitcoin can be bullish than this before the end date:233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) 245. $63,000 bct_ail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420530#msg57420530) 246. $64,935 xhomerx10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411348#msg57411348) 247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) 248. $66,666 Hueristic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57401039#msg57401039) 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) 252. $72,435 cygan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331109#msg57331109) 253. $73,500 yhiaali3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326475#msg57326475) 254. $74,991 willi9974 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325414#msg57325414) 255. $77,217 witcher_sense (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325339#msg57325339) 256. $78,483 -doubleU- (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330154#msg57330154) 257. $80,000 AlcoHoDL (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325612#msg57325612) pooya87 of course! Hmmm :D341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 09, 2021, 11:37:07 PM Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? I will be surprised if bitcoin can be bullish than this before the end date:233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) 245. $63,000 bct_ail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420530#msg57420530) 246. $64,935 xhomerx10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411348#msg57411348) 247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) 248. $66,666 Hueristic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57401039#msg57401039) 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) 252. $72,435 cygan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331109#msg57331109) 253. $73,500 yhiaali3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326475#msg57326475) 254. $74,991 willi9974 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325414#msg57325414) 255. $77,217 witcher_sense (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325339#msg57325339) 256. $78,483 -doubleU- (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330154#msg57330154) 257. $80,000 AlcoHoDL (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325612#msg57325612) pooya87 of course! Hmmm :D341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Well? Exactly 4 weeks for this thread target time-frame to run.. and getting up to $80k is merely 23.3% above the mid-April ATH of $64,895... That seems a pretty conservative range, especially given that we were up to $68,564 yesterday, and $68,564 is within 16.7% of the $80k maximum that you are proclaiming Charles-Tim... Pretty conservative to speculate that bitcoin can ONLY go up another 16.7% in a 4 week period, especially when it currently seems to have a decent amount of UPpity momentum that we could claim started around the end of July - even if there were a few pauses along the way, but getting a bit more UPpity steam around October 1, no? Of course, I personally do NOT bet higher on any kind of UP prices happening or continuing, but just in an attempt to look at the price momentum for what it is. To me it seems that there is decent momentum to fairly reasonably take us another 20% or more beyond $80k.. and for sure, I would not presume the absence of resistance at $100k, but even bullwhales (to the extent that they actually exist) can start to act strange in the vicinity of those round numbers and there could be some desire to just get above $100k merely "for funzies" - even if staying above $100k might not be able to hold in the short-term (don't label me as a bear for saying that....)... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on November 10, 2021, 12:47:16 AM Already feeling $100k vibes for this game? No. Why would I turn bearish now? ;)Anyone else? Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? Me at 70k 😊 why not? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on November 10, 2021, 05:53:12 AM Already feeling $100k vibes for this game? No. Why would I turn bearish now? ;)Anyone else? Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? Me at 70k 😊 why not? You stole my 69,696 you prick, so I had to go all 3vIL :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: BlackHatCoiner on November 10, 2021, 10:40:25 AM Now, you can see yourself who's currently closer to win the prize! (Depicted and available in BBCode so I can make your life easier)
Exclusively at blackhatcoiner dot com. Quoting my other message: Just showing the winner: https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/ Code: [abbr=BlackHatCoiner's Blockchain Stats BBCode Depicter][url=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5366056.0][img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/[/img][/url][/abbr] Showing both the winner & the predicted price: https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/?price=true Code: [abbr=BlackHatCoiner's Blockchain Stats BBCode Depicter][url=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5366056.0][img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/?price=true[/img][/url][/abbr] Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 10, 2021, 11:35:43 AM Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? pooya87 of course!341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) That makes me the second favorite! There is a chance! Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? I will be surprised if bitcoin can be bullish than this before the end date:233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) 245. $63,000 bct_ail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420530#msg57420530) 246. $64,935 xhomerx10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411348#msg57411348) 247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) 248. $66,666 Hueristic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57401039#msg57401039) 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) 252. $72,435 cygan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331109#msg57331109) 253. $73,500 yhiaali3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326475#msg57326475) 254. $74,991 willi9974 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325414#msg57325414) 255. $77,217 witcher_sense (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325339#msg57325339) 256. $78,483 -doubleU- (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330154#msg57330154) 257. $80,000 AlcoHoDL (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325612#msg57325612) pooya87 of course! Hmmm :D341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Well? Exactly 4 weeks for this thread target time-frame to run.. and getting up to $80k is merely 23.3% above the mid-April ATH of $64,895... That seems a pretty conservative range, especially given that we were up to $68,564 yesterday, and $68,564 is within 16.7% of the $80k maximum that you are proclaiming Charles-Tim... Pretty conservative to speculate that bitcoin can ONLY go up another 16.7% in a 4 week period, especially when it currently seems to have a decent amount of UPpity momentum that we could claim started around the end of July - even if there were a few pauses along the way, but getting a bit more UPpity steam around October 1, no? Of course, I personally do NOT bet higher on any kind of UP prices happening or continuing, but just in an attempt to look at the price momentum for what it is. To me it seems that there is decent momentum to fairly reasonably take us another 20% or more beyond $80k.. and for sure, I would not presume the absence of resistance at $100k, but even bullwhales (to the extent that they actually exist) can start to act strange in the vicinity of those round numbers and there could be some desire to just get above $100k merely "for funzies" - even if staying above $100k might not be able to hold in the short-term (don't label me as a bear for saying that....)... Merely for funzies? I believe the market isn’t like the early years anymore when whales made the market surge, or crash simply by market buying up, or market selling down, liquidating longs or shorts. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on November 10, 2021, 01:57:13 PM Already feeling $100k vibes for this game? No. Why would I turn bearish now? ;)Anyone else? Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? Me at 70k 😊 why not? You stole my 69,696 you prick, so I had to go all 3vIL :) If I win I will give you 0.00069696 btc of the prize of 0.077 btc Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on November 10, 2021, 02:58:22 PM This belongs here. Note that the "winner" is based on the current price, this is not the final result yet as the contest is still running:
Just showing the winner: https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/ Code: [abbr=BlackHatCoiner's Blockchain Stats BBCode Depicter][url=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5366056.0][img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/[/img][/url][/abbr] Showing both the winner & the predicted price: https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/?price=true Code: [abbr=BlackHatCoiner's Blockchain Stats BBCode Depicter][url=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5366056.0][img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/?price=true[/img][/url][/abbr] Once the contest ends, I'll lock the variable username to the analogous winner. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 10, 2021, 05:05:10 PM To me it seems that there is decent momentum to fairly reasonably take us another 20% or more beyond $80k.. and for sure, I would not presume the absence of resistance at $100k, but even bullwhales (to the extent that they actually exist) can start to act strange in the vicinity of those round numbers and there could be some desire to just get above $100k merely "for funzies" - even if staying above $100k might not be able to hold in the short-term (don't label me as a bear for saying that....)... Merely for funzies? I believe the market isn’t like the early years anymore when whales made the market surge, or crash simply by market buying up, or market selling down, liquidating longs or shorts. You can believe whatever you like in terms of the BIGGER players abilities or inabilities to move the market or to take advantage of momentum to push the market further than what it might have otherwise gone, and even your seemly somewhat detached beliefs that BTC market has become "too big" to move. ::) ::) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on November 10, 2021, 06:21:32 PM You can believe whatever you like in terms of the BIGGER players abilities or inabilities to move the market or to take advantage of momentum to push the market further than what it might have otherwise gone, and even your seemly somewhat detached beliefs that BTC market has become "too big" to move. ::) ::) Brain tells me "too big" but brain also is reminded by everything else going on around crypto and fiat how pointless it is to rely on brain (for instance, the US dollar which was certainly too big to just allow to print to insanefinity, yet went ahead and did anyway). And god knows how many people thought $100 was too big, or $1000, as evidenced by countless hands letting go at those peaks, believing the unbelievable had impossibly happened and that that was it. We've even got bloody JPM ascribing the true value "minus volatility" of Bitcoin today as way more than S2F's 130k range, so who's to say that very same weakness can't push price above and beyond what's "true"? If I win, I'm throwing a send-pizza-to-all-participants party with the prize, cause I'll be flush =D Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on November 10, 2021, 07:32:46 PM Already feeling $100k vibes for this game? No. Why would I turn bearish now? ;)Anyone else? Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? Me at 70k 😊 why not? You stole my 69,696 you prick, so I had to go all 3vIL :) If I win I will give you 0.00069696 btc of the prize of 0.077 btc https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/63734188/that-seems-fair.jpg Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: aoluain on November 10, 2021, 09:06:23 PM Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? I will be surprised if bitcoin can be bullish than this before the end date:snip pooya87 of course! Hmmm :D341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Well? Exactly 4 weeks for this thread target time-frame to run.. and getting up to $80k is merely 23.3% above the mid-April ATH of $64,895... That seems a pretty conservative range, especially given that we were up to $68,564 yesterday, and $68,564 is within 16.7% of the $80k maximum that you are proclaiming Charles-Tim... Pretty conservative to speculate that bitcoin can ONLY go up another 16.7% in a 4 week period, especially when it currently seems to have a decent amount of UPpity momentum that we could claim started around the end of July - even if there were a few pauses along the way, but getting a bit more UPpity steam around October 1, no? Of course, I personally do NOT bet higher on any kind of UP prices happening or continuing, but just in an attempt to look at the price momentum for what it is. To me it seems that there is decent momentum to fairly reasonably take us another 20% or more beyond $80k.. and for sure, I would not presume the absence of resistance at $100k, but even bullwhales (to the extent that they actually exist) can start to act strange in the vicinity of those round numbers and there could be some desire to just get above $100k merely "for funzies" - even if staying above $100k might not be able to hold in the short-term (don't label me as a bear for saying that....)... According to PlanB he predicts November closing around $93,000 so yes I would agree that a 16.7% rise to December 7th is very conservative. By tweaking the list [to include myself ;D] I am eliminating everything under the ATH. Prediction overview 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) 252. $72,435 cygan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331109#msg57331109) 253. $73,500 yhiaali3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326475#msg57326475) 254. $74,991 willi9974 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325414#msg57325414) 255. $77,217 witcher_sense (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325339#msg57325339) 256. $78,483 -doubleU- (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330154#msg57330154) 257. $80,000 AlcoHoDL (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325612#msg57325612) 258. $82,212 MinoRaiola (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57332592#msg57332592) 259. $84,400 SFR10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328194#msg57328194) 260. $86,000 LFC_Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325271#msg57325271) 261. $86,888 psycodad (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328599#msg57328599) 262. $88,888 Vispilio (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411469#msg57411469) 263. $90,001 babo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57359756#msg57359756) 264. $93,013 Nomad88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325671#msg57325671) (first post in 5 months) 265. $94,199 nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330220#msg57330220) 266. $96,000 tranthidung (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331245#msg57331245) 267. $97,988 Bthd (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325886#msg57325886) 268. $98,989 aoluain (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57409334#msg57409334) 269. $102,345 buwaytress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325341#msg57325341) 271. $105,000 hosseinimr93 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57425002#msg57425002) 272. $108,633 Upgrade00 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325450#msg57325450) 273. $110,262 fillippone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325365#msg57325365) 274. $112,124 mocacinno (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57351746#msg57351746) 275. $114,500 strawbs (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326478#msg57326478) 276. $116,195 xandry (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57386324#msg57386324) 277. $120,001 Wekkel (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328363#msg57328363) 278. $120,666 d_eddie (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57408244#msg57408244) 281. $128,218 NeuroticFish (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57342417#msg57342417) 282. $132,000 Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57335331#msg57335331) 286. $143,220 HairyMaclairy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329667#msg57329667) 289. $152,904 Dabs (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326362#msg57326362) 297. $178,845 LoyceV (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57370828#msg57370828) 299. $183,000 DeathAngel (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329997#msg57329997) 309. $225,309 Arriemoller (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326208#msg57326208) 321. $288,000 marcus_of_augustus (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325416#msg57325416) 324. $300,500 CryptopreneurBrainboss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325683#msg57325683) 326. $315,000 kurious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57348451#msg57348451) 329. $333,333 Wind_FURY (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375385#msg57375385) 341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on November 10, 2021, 09:25:27 PM Closing in towards end date, who is favorite atm ?? I will be surprised if bitcoin can be bullish than this before the end date:snip pooya87 of course! Hmmm :D341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) Well? Exactly 4 weeks for this thread target time-frame to run.. and getting up to $80k is merely 23.3% above the mid-April ATH of $64,895... That seems a pretty conservative range, especially given that we were up to $68,564 yesterday, and $68,564 is within 16.7% of the $80k maximum that you are proclaiming Charles-Tim... Pretty conservative to speculate that bitcoin can ONLY go up another 16.7% in a 4 week period, especially when it currently seems to have a decent amount of UPpity momentum that we could claim started around the end of July - even if there were a few pauses along the way, but getting a bit more UPpity steam around October 1, no? Of course, I personally do NOT bet higher on any kind of UP prices happening or continuing, but just in an attempt to look at the price momentum for what it is. To me it seems that there is decent momentum to fairly reasonably take us another 20% or more beyond $80k.. and for sure, I would not presume the absence of resistance at $100k, but even bullwhales (to the extent that they actually exist) can start to act strange in the vicinity of those round numbers and there could be some desire to just get above $100k merely "for funzies" - even if staying above $100k might not be able to hold in the short-term (don't label me as a bear for saying that....)... According to PlanB he predicts November closing around $93,000 so yes I would agree that a 16.7% rise to December 7th is very conservative. By tweaking the list [to include myself ;D] I am eliminating everything under the ATH. Prediction overview 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) 251. $72,046 theymos (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57402865#msg57402865) 252. $72,435 cygan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331109#msg57331109) 253. $73,500 yhiaali3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326475#msg57326475) 254. $74,991 willi9974 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325414#msg57325414) 255. $77,217 witcher_sense (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325339#msg57325339) 256. $78,483 -doubleU- (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330154#msg57330154) 257. $80,000 AlcoHoDL (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325612#msg57325612) 258. $82,212 MinoRaiola (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57332592#msg57332592) 259. $84,400 SFR10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328194#msg57328194) 260. $86,000 LFC_Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325271#msg57325271) 261. $86,888 psycodad (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328599#msg57328599) 262. $88,888 Vispilio (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411469#msg57411469) 263. $90,001 babo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57359756#msg57359756) 264. $93,013 Nomad88 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325671#msg57325671) (first post in 5 months) 265. $94,199 nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57330220#msg57330220) 266. $96,000 tranthidung (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331245#msg57331245) 267. $97,988 Bthd (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325886#msg57325886) 268. $98,989 aoluain (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57409334#msg57409334) 269. $102,345 buwaytress (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325341#msg57325341) … 341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) my guess is above Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 11, 2021, 03:13:41 AM You can believe whatever you like in terms of the BIGGER players abilities or inabilities to move the market or to take advantage of momentum to push the market further than what it might have otherwise gone, and even your seemly somewhat detached beliefs that BTC market has become "too big" to move. ::) ::) Brain tells me "too big" but brain also is reminded by everything else going on around crypto and fiat how pointless it is to rely on brain (for instance, the US dollar which was certainly too big to just allow to print to insanefinity, yet went ahead and did anyway). And god knows how many people thought $100 was too big, or $1000, as evidenced by countless hands letting go at those peaks, believing the unbelievable had impossibly happened and that that was it. We've even got bloody JPM ascribing the true value "minus volatility" of Bitcoin today as way more than S2F's 130k range, so who's to say that very same weakness can't push price above and beyond what's "true"? If I win, I'm throwing a send-pizza-to-all-participants party with the prize, cause I'll be flush =D I am not sure about all of the points that you are making buwaytress, but I will acknowledge that your point about the "it's too BIG to pump as much as it used to pump" blah blah blah nonsense has been a repeated theme (talking point) to cause people to fail refuse to adequately prepare for UP on a number of occasions, just like you mentioned.. $100 $1,000 and a whole hell of a lot of other price points, too. The same nonsense has been asserted to cause people to believe that they are justified in investing in shitcoins also, and largely it seems that bitcoin has been absorbing value in such a way that it has been keeping up with its own various value propositions.. and sure, maybe it cannot pump as much.. so instead of going up 1000x and then 100x in various subsequent time snapshots, it might ONLY be capable of going up 50x in a similar time snapshot, but still does not mean that it cannot continue to have exponential price rises that continue to beat the pants off of a large number of other asset classes and to remain as the best in vestment, even if there might be uncertainties regarding how much it is able to pump in some 4 year cycle or if the cycle might deviate from its earlier time expectations. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 11, 2021, 06:01:27 AM To me it seems that there is decent momentum to fairly reasonably take us another 20% or more beyond $80k.. and for sure, I would not presume the absence of resistance at $100k, but even bullwhales (to the extent that they actually exist) can start to act strange in the vicinity of those round numbers and there could be some desire to just get above $100k merely "for funzies" - even if staying above $100k might not be able to hold in the short-term (don't label me as a bear for saying that....)... Merely for funzies? I believe the market isn’t like the early years anymore when whales made the market surge, or crash simply by market buying up, or market selling down, liquidating longs or shorts. You can believe whatever you like in terms of the BIGGER players abilities or inabilities to move the market or to take advantage of momentum to push the market further than what it might have otherwise gone, and even your seemly somewhat detached beliefs that BTC market has become "too big" to move. ::) ::) I believe you, but it’s not the same players of the early years who were manipulating Bitcoin in their basement “merely for funzies”, and communicating with other traders through forums and IRC. It’s currently a more sophisticated set of players who, I believe, won’t do anything “merely for funzies”. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on November 11, 2021, 10:18:03 AM Bitcoin IS too big to pump (or dump) but that doesn't mean we aren't going to see massive rises and falls. Lest we forget it was 11 months ago when price went from $20k to $40k (100% rise) in only 20 days. Or the latest surge from $41k to $67k took about 21 days and $60k has been a big resistance, who knows what is going to happen when price enters $70k territory.
Don't underestimate the power of panic buyers Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on November 11, 2021, 03:29:26 PM I am not sure about all of the points that you are making buwaytress, but I will acknowledge that your point about the "it's too BIG to pump as much as it used to pump" blah blah blah nonsense has been a repeated theme (talking point) to cause people to fail refuse to adequately prepare for UP on a number of occasions, just like you mentioned.. $100 $1,000 and a whole hell of a lot of other price points, too. Yeah, I saw it myself at 10,000 -- one guy liquidated and left even this forum (but at least his reason was just to enjoy life and stay true to his personal price target), but a few others I was in contact with did that because they thought that really was it. I wasn't around for $10 or $100 but Twitter and memeverse record plenty of instances. The same nonsense has been asserted to cause people to believe that they are justified in investing in shitcoins also, and largely it seems that bitcoin has been absorbing value in such a way that it has been keeping up with its own various value propositions.. and sure, maybe it cannot pump as much.. so instead of going up 1000x and then 100x in various subsequent time snapshots, it might ONLY be capable of going up 50x in a similar time snapshot, but still does not mean that it cannot continue to have exponential price rises that continue to beat the pants off of a large number of other asset classes and to remain as the best in vestment, even if there might be uncertainties regarding how much it is able to pump in some 4 year cycle or if the cycle might deviate from its earlier time expectations. +100! I still can't believe reading the reasonings altcoin shillers make up for their x1000 "analyses". People still can't wrap their heads around the fundamental supply and network reasons for why Bitcoin is valued the way it is, choosing the lazy route of projecting market rationale and capitalization. "It's only 0.0001% of BTC market cap so of course it can go 10000x and only be 1% of BTC, which is so conservative!" Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on November 11, 2021, 06:10:45 PM BTC could go up ⬆️ a lot.
Flash crash of Feb 2020 3900 Now Nov 2021 68000 thats a lot. In less than 22 months. over 1 trillion usd. So do I think it can do 1 trillion more in 22 months yes it can. but a coin would go from 68k to 115k (off the top of my head math) do I think it can do 2.6 trillion more in 22 months yes it can. but a coin would go from 68k to 200k not 3900 to 68000. realistically seeing 200k btc in 2024 would be possible why not. but 3900 to 68000 is more than 16x in 22 months do i think btc will do 1 million in next 22 months no i dont. but i think from summer 2021 price of 30k to 500k by fall of 2023 which is the same as 3900 to 68000 in 22 months is possible. so is it too late for anyone to begin stacking sats no it is not. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 11, 2021, 07:30:16 PM To me it seems that there is decent momentum to fairly reasonably take us another 20% or more beyond $80k.. and for sure, I would not presume the absence of resistance at $100k, but even bullwhales (to the extent that they actually exist) can start to act strange in the vicinity of those round numbers and there could be some desire to just get above $100k merely "for funzies" - even if staying above $100k might not be able to hold in the short-term (don't label me as a bear for saying that....)... Merely for funzies? I believe the market isn’t like the early years anymore when whales made the market surge, or crash simply by market buying up, or market selling down, liquidating longs or shorts. You can believe whatever you like in terms of the BIGGER players abilities or inabilities to move the market or to take advantage of momentum to push the market further than what it might have otherwise gone, and even your seemly somewhat detached beliefs that BTC market has become "too big" to move. ::) ::) I believe you, but it’s not the same players of the early years who were manipulating Bitcoin in their basement “merely for funzies”, and communicating with other traders through forums and IRC. It’s currently a more sophisticated set of players who, I believe, won’t do anything “merely for funzies”. Perhaps you are getting too distracted in terms of reading my assertion about what is "funzies" literally. We already know that with the passage of time, the players in bitcoin have become more and more sophisticated, so it does not seem to be productive to be overly generalizing about the character of the bitcoin market players in 2013 versus 2017 versus now or various points between. Surely, there is an evolving dynamic regarding both who are the market players and what kinds of BTC financialization (manipulation) tools are available to them in order to attempt to profit, whether they measure their profits in fiat within the BTC space or whether they are able to attempt to manipulate BTC profits to either make profits or stave off losses in other areas that they may perceive to be BTC competitors. The BTC price is going to experience volatility in accordance with the various evolving tools that are available, and I doubt that we are even disagreeing about the likely ongoing changes in regards to the sophistication or size of the various players that are coming into BTC. I believe that we differ in some sense in that you seem to believe that there is some kind of sudden and meaningful change in the players and tools that really matters in terms of altering the various formulas (and price prediction models) of the past, and I largely characterize these changes as a BIG ASS SO FUCKING WHAT. In other words, it seems really silly to me to be speculating all of the various ways that the BTC market is going to be changed and downplayed due to the various BIGGER players and changes in the BTC space, when the reality of the matter is that we have not really seen evidence of that and there are a lot of ways that speculation and theory can be made that show the changes in the BTC space make the players BIGGER and the tools BIGGER but a lot of those increases in BIGNESS end up being a wash in terms of really stiffling the various BTC models - so what ends up happening largely ends up being comparative to previous times even if the players and the tools got BIGGER. So yeah I agree with you that instead of having a bunch of snot-nosed 14-year olds trading in their basement we have bankers, big companies and governments starting to dip their toes in the BTC battle ring, but bitcoin is already built to anticipate this kind of happenings, so the affects are not really changed in any kind of meaningful way.. except yeah, instead of getting 100x to 200x volatility in 2-4 years, we might only get 20x to 60x in the same time period... yet even with that level of lower volatility, it still remains as a greatly volatile asset with a whole hell of a lot of upside price potential and even a whole lot of abilities to push the price 50% up in a short period of time just for "funzies" (even if you don't like the word "funzies" and you seem to read too narrow of an interpretation in what I am saying when using such "funzies" descriptor). Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: malevolent on November 12, 2021, 11:39:36 PM Let's start using money supply instead of market cap when it comes to bitcoin. The problem with using market cap is that people compare it with stocks (that have market cap) then see their total market cap is smaller and it scares them when they compare it with bitcoin's that has surpassed $1 trillion and what it will surpass when it goes above $1 million price. Using money supply makes more sense for a currency and it helps us make more useful comparisons such as the fact that the world's total money supply is said to be around $5 quadrillion ($5000 trillion) while bitcoin's money supply is only $1.18 trillion. In other words this one of a kind global decentralized currency only has 0.023% of total money supply! I say it will reach at least 10% in the next decade as we get closer to mass adoption which means a price of $26.5 million per bitcoin or better said 26 cents for 1 satoshi. Where are you getting the $5Q number from? I'm not even sure if it's that much even when all derivatives are included. Maybe your number includes the value of all natural resources on Earth and on the Moon? ;) But I agree there's potentially a lot of room for growth, provided there won't be too much friction when exchanging to/from fiat currencies, and that's uncertain. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on November 13, 2021, 12:33:13 AM Let's start using money supply instead of market cap when it comes to bitcoin. The problem with using market cap is that people compare it with stocks (that have market cap) then see their total market cap is smaller and it scares them when they compare it with bitcoin's that has surpassed $1 trillion and what it will surpass when it goes above $1 million price. Using money supply makes more sense for a currency and it helps us make more useful comparisons such as the fact that the world's total money supply is said to be around $5 quadrillion ($5000 trillion) while bitcoin's money supply is only $1.18 trillion. In other words this one of a kind global decentralized currency only has 0.023% of total money supply! I say it will reach at least 10% in the next decade as we get closer to mass adoption which means a price of $26.5 million per bitcoin or better said 26 cents for 1 satoshi. Where are you getting the $5Q number from? I'm not even sure if it's that much even when all derivatives are included. Maybe your number includes the value of all natural resources on Earth and on the Moon? ;) But I agree there's potentially a lot of room for growth, provided there won't be too much friction when exchanging to/from fiat currencies, and that's uncertain. never heard 5000 trillion for all the value in the world. have heard 100 trillion have heard 200 trillion and even 300 trillion. If you figure inflation is baked in and next year it is 6% due to the 5.9% rise in social security checks. If you say we are trully 300 trillion and add 18 trillion due to inflation a guess that btc could do 2x or say 128000 seems reasonable as a low number for 2022. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: NapHappy on November 19, 2021, 02:52:43 AM Thanks El duderino_ for the fun game. My take on this cycle that it's not over and what we are in now is a large extended bear trap that will take months to end. https://i.ibb.co/8XtnLdn/BTC-predict.png This is my favorite long-term chart, for nearly a decade bitcoin has been within this channel, it spends about 70% of that time in the green area and, maybe 20% in the yellow, and just about 10% in the red zone. Since I believe this bear trap will last longer and given that I'd bet on BTC price to be within the green channel any given day since it has a lot more chances than being elsewhere, so my guess is Dec will be the month when we start heading to the last ATH, and we will probably be at the 50k range, so I'll take box 238 at of price $54,666. mikeywith - can you tell me where to generate this chart? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mikeywith on November 19, 2021, 09:08:31 PM mikeywith - can you tell me where to generate this chart? TradingView, search for BLX which has the longest data on BTC/USD, the timeframe used here is 2 weeks, and the rest is just the drawing tools which are available for free on Tradingview. Thanks for reminding me about this, might be a good time to update it. https://i.ibb.co/Mkd8gFZ/BLX.png Again, as before, the yellow and red areas are levels that usually Bitcoin doesn't spend a lot of time at, every time it goes there, it's either prior to a blow-off top before a crash or a crash before anything else. I have divided the lower bound into two parts, dark green and light green, the light green is areas where bitcoin usually bottoms after a bear market or a large correction, you can also see that despite the fact that we made a new ATH this month, we didn't go past the green area unlike the previous ATH in march, which means we still have more room to grow, which also proves that the slower we move up the more we can sustain the price, for an example if we get to 100k anytime before April of next year, we are likely going to crash fast and hard, if we go to a 100k in say June of next year we will still be in the green with more room to the upside. The bottom of the light green channel sits at roughly 19.5k, which means it's almost nearly impossible to ever see 19.5k regardless of when the bear market starts, the upper bound of the dark green on Dec 30 sits at 75k, which means we are highly unlikely going to pass 75k this year, a very sad opinion, but well, I hope I am wrong. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 19, 2021, 10:08:22 PM mikeywith - can you tell me where to generate this chart? TradingView, search for BLX which has the longest data on BTC/USD, the timeframe used here is 2 weeks, and the rest is just the drawing tools which are available for free on Tradingview. Thanks for reminding me about this, might be a good time to update it. https://i.ibb.co/Mkd8gFZ/BLX.png Again, as before, the yellow and red areas are levels that usually Bitcoin doesn't spend a lot of time at, every time it goes there, it's either prior to a blow-off top before a crash or a crash before anything else. I have divided the lower bound into two parts, dark green and light green, the light green is areas where bitcoin usually bottoms after a bear market or a large correction, you can also see that despite the fact that we made a new ATH this month, we didn't go past the green area unlike the previous ATH in march, which means we still have more room to grow, which also proves that the slower we move up the more we can sustain the price, for an example if we get to 100k anytime before April of next year, we are likely going to crash fast and hard, if we go to a 100k in say June of next year we will still be in the green with more room to the upside. The bottom of the light green channel sits at roughly 19.5k, which means it's almost nearly impossible to ever see 19.5k regardless of when the bear market starts, the upper bound of the dark green on Dec 30 sits at 75k, which means we are highly unlikely going to pass 75k this year, a very sad opinion, but well, I hope I am wrong. Hahahaha yes.. you are probably wrong.. but I still like your discussion of the chart and your analysis regarding why you believe the BTC price to have some kind of seemingly self-imposed limitations in how much it is likely to go up in the upcoming 6 weeks-ish... It's almost as if you had never experienced any previous "surprise" BTC run-ups.. but hey... you do you... surely, you are entitled to your own perceptions regarding the potentials of our saviour king daddy. ;) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mikeywith on November 19, 2021, 10:28:18 PM yes.. you are probably wrong.. Better rich than right. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 20, 2021, 03:14:34 AM yes.. you are probably wrong.. Better rich than right. I am not clear regarding how you would conclude that my assertions would suggest that your BTC price prediction for the rest of this calendar year (even presuming that you might end up being correct) would lead to more richieness than some other approach, including my skepticisms about your asserted views. Richie status likely takes a while to get to and surely there are a variety of ways to preserve such status once getting there.. I have some difficulties imagining that richie or not richie status depends on a short to medium term prediction, unless you might be a gambler.. and then hopefully you are correct. If you have been following bitcoin circles (such as this forum or some other bitcoin circles), you may well have noticed that historically there frequently have been a decent number of folks who end up failing and refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in BTC prices.., happens over and over and over again.. so one thing is being invested in various fiat investments and another thing is being invested in bitcoin.. and having some kinds of decent long term plans.. and surely it can take a while to accumulate BTC too.... Anyhow.. and many times those kinds of folks who fail/refuse to prepare for UP end up getting left behind by either selling too much BTC too early, failing/refusing to engage in an ongoing buying/accumulating of BTC or taking other actions that insufficiently and/or inadequately prepare them for UP. Some of them end up bitter by their various failures and refusals to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP. I cannot recall ever suggested that people ONLY prepare for UP (from my point of view, that would be a kind of gambling, and from my point of view, investing in bitcoin and deploying various BTC accumulation/HODL strategies should not be gambling - because there are needs to allocate and adequately prepare for risks.. which frequently would mean employing various means of incremental accumulation of BTC such as DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.. at least until reaching self-established accumulation goals). Furthermore, I have frequently found myself reminding folks to make sure that they are prepared for both UP and DOWN.. and some of those kinds of reminders are especially applicable for those who seem to be largely asserting that they are overweighted in preparing for DOWN such as waiting to buy BTC, selling BTC early and other actions that seem to NOT adequately/sufficiently prepare them for UP. Anyhow, I do remain somewhat confused about how you are supposedly going to get rich or preserve some kind of richie status by acting upon some speculations that BTC is NOT going above $75k for this calendar year - especially if you seriously and adequately consider that there are decent odds that you would NOT end up being correct regarding your presumption of such a $75k-ish ceiling (or your not gonna happen proclamation). Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mikeywith on November 20, 2021, 10:43:48 AM Anyhow, I do remain somewhat confused I said it is very unlikely we pass 75k this year, you thought that me thinking that btc has some sort of price limits was wrong, so if 75k isnt the limit and i turn out to be wrong, we might go a lot higher levels, That will make me "richer" at the expense of being "wrong" which I'll gladly accept. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: BlackHatCoiner on November 20, 2021, 12:28:04 PM yes.. you are probably wrong.. I'm sorry, but which part of their analysis is probably wrong? Making this statement means you know an analysis that is correct. Just because Bitcoin does those run-ups, it doesn't mean it'll continue doing them forever. Also, just because there's a numerous amount of posts predicting it'll hit 100k-200k and it, indeed, reaches before the end of the year, it doesn't make mikeywith's analysis “probably wrong”.The same people who predicted it'll exceed 64k are the same who think it'll exceed 100k, but how many of their predictions were right? Less than half? I keep seeing people on Twitter making monstrous calculations for the price, but if you ever look at those a few of months later, you'll realize most of those turned out incorrect. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on November 20, 2021, 12:58:19 PM If you have been following bitcoin circles (such as this forum or some other bitcoin circles), you may well have noticed that historically there frequently have been a decent number of folks who end up failing and refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in BTC prices.., happens over and over and over again.. so one thing is being invested in various fiat investments and another thing is being invested in bitcoin.. and having some kinds of decent long term plans.. and surely it can take a while to accumulate BTC too.... Something I am reminded of often enough, as we'se discussed in previous posts. Discounting those who exited at predetermined prices (fairplay to them, even if those targets were $10,000k) since they left and never came back and never then entered into regret and bitter mode. But always surprised me when I was new to the scene and meeting supposed veterans who'd given up, and then only to stick around and then go into some weird game of trying to guess the top again, only to inevitably fail because they always think too "rationally" and "conservatively". They then revert to trader mentality from being holders. And it's kind of sad to see that. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on November 20, 2021, 02:19:35 PM Richie status likely takes a while to get to and surely there are a variety of ways to preserve such status once getting there.. I have some difficulties imagining that richie or not richie status depends on a short to medium term prediction, unless you might be a gambler.. and then hopefully you are correct. Some people will prefer the short term because they want to gain more, but losses are the results for many, so it can be said it is more of gambling. But, yet, there are few people that prefer to go for short term and make something from it. But people that lost most are traders, especially those that leverage, some people can be professional to the extent it is no more gambling for them, but does not change the fact that most people that are losing are these kind of people, especially leverage traders.I'm sorry, but which part of their analysis is probably wrong? Making this statement means you know an analysis that is correct. I too have predicted that bitcoin price can never reach $75000 this year, but one thing about short term analysis is that no one is right and no one that predicted it correctly can say they are right because they can not always be right while predicting the price in short term. JayJuanGee is just one of the people on this forum that is more optimistic about bitcoin price, and to me his analysis is right, the analysis that has been right from long time till now. The reason is because he is not considering short term prediction, but instead in long term. With the wealth distribution in the world, we all know that bitcoin reaching $100000 and more is attainable. And to be fear enough, I like the type of people that do not consider the fall but just having a rest of mind and seeing bitcoin price growing again which increase and reach all-time-high again. This kind of analysis is the 100% accurate analysis about bitcoin price for now, the fiat inflationary governmental control makes it more possible in addition to increasing bitcoin adoption.I understand what you are saying, but JayJuanGee is a man that is more posting in the wall observer thread, the reason for more optimism about bitcoin price. I wish I can be like that. But I am a type that is waiting for dump so that I can buy the dip ;D. I hope you will get me righta about this. Short term bitcoin prediction can be inaccurate, even analysts are predicting it wrong with their professional analyses, but no one is wrong about the long term all-time-high prediction. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: BlackHatCoiner on November 20, 2021, 02:33:51 PM JayJuanGee is just one of the people on this forum that is more optimistic about bitcoin price, and to me his analysis is right, the analysis that has been right from long time till now. Just to clarify; I'm also bullish on bitcoin and I don't think it'll be $75k by the end of the year (and maybe a little from January), but lots more. I'm just saying that due to pure speculation, you can't say that someone's analysis is correct or incorrect. Based on which factors do we examine that an analysis is right?I wish I can be like that. I wish I wouldn't. It's overrated. You keep waiting for a crazy spike that lasts few hours for months! :PShort term bitcoin prediction can be inaccurate, even analysts are predicting it wrong with their professional analyses, but no one is wrong about the long term all-time-high prediction. I see it like this: The more you wait, the less the odds to not go upwards. Professional, non-professional — it works!Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 20, 2021, 07:28:42 PM Anyhow, I do remain somewhat confused I said it is very unlikely we pass 75k this year, you thought that me thinking that btc has some sort of price limits was wrong, so if 75k isnt the limit and i turn out to be wrong, we might go a lot higher levels, That will make me "richer" at the expense of being "wrong" which I'll gladly accept. O.k.. I will concede that there is some aspect of your earlier enigma of a post (cited below) that went over my head... but jeez... kind of a puzzle, no? yes.. you are probably wrong.. Better rich than right. yes.. you are probably wrong.. I'm sorry, but which part of their analysis is probably wrong? Making this statement means you know an analysis that is correct. My statement proclaiming that another statement is probably wrong is a response. It does not necessarily mean that I have any other analysis or that I want to make any analysis further than stating that the analysis that was made is probably wrong. By the way, I have made some posts regarding my assignment of probabilities regarding my opinion regarding various price points and in terms of timing of the top of this cycle, too. Even though some of those posts are more than a month old, I don't see anything in the recent BTC price moves that change my opinions about probabilities, except maybe allowing for higher probabilities that this cycle will end up getting drug out past this calendar year.... Maybe I will update and tweak my numbers at some point.. here's a link for ease of reference. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58416917#msg58416917) Just because Bitcoin does those run-ups, it doesn't mean it'll continue doing them forever. You seem to be inventing a strawman argument here. I put very little weight to either supercycle theories or to UP only ideas, though I do acknowledge that there have been some credible folks coming over to supercycle theories even though even they are not proclaiming the disappearance of corrections along the way. Also, just because there's a numerous amount of posts predicting it'll hit 100k-200k and it, indeed, reaches before the end of the year, it doesn't make mikeywith's analysis “probably wrong”. I am not saying that either or even relying on the fact that a lot of people are saying it. I think that I had already asserted that $55k to $80k is likely a noman's land and that there is likely a lot of lacking of resistance in this area and that lacking of resistance could well go up to the area of sub-$100k. I did expect that there would be resistance before $100k, but the likely lack of resistance also makes his assertion of prices not getting above $75k to be not too likely. Of course, the fact that we have been in the noman's zone (supra $55k for 6 weeks-ish) does start to challenge the noman's land thesis.. so surely I will grant that.. even though I doubt that the noman's land thesis has been negated yet. You can believe whatever you like regarding various bitcoin price dynamics where resistance or support levels might be. The same people who predicted it'll exceed 64k are the same who think it'll exceed 100k, but how many of their predictions were right? Less than half? You are generalizing a lot here, and I am not even clear about what you are saying. Are you talking about supra $64k/$100k for this prediction game? or for the calendar year? or for the cycle? If what you were saying were true regarding this prediction game, there would be no predictions between $64k and $100k, which truly is not the case. Or are you saying that people who had said supra $64k at the time of the prediction game have now converted over to saying supra $100k - with the passage of time? Does it not make sense that higher BTC prices become more likely once they reach higher prices? I understand that there are questions of how fast the price gets there, but in the case of BTC we had a pretty much nonstop price rise from $10k-ish to $65k-ish.. in about 7 months, so yeah when we got the 56% correction down to $28,600 there might have been some justification to allow buy support to catch up before the BTC price is able to more easily move higher than $65k-ish and sure so far it has only gotten to $69k.. so surely there could be questions and or doubt about whether buy support is going to be able to keep up or continue and people are going to have different views about that. and some people will profit more than others based upon the way they choose to act upon their views. I keep seeing people on Twitter making monstrous calculations for the price, but if you ever look at those a few of months later, you'll realize most of those turned out incorrect. Well hopefully members here are not distracted too much in terms of establishing their own strategies based on all over the place assertions regarding BTC prices. That has been true for a long time, and for sure by definition most predictions are going to be wrong the more specific they attempt to ascribe what is going to happen, and even if some kind of specific prediction ends up being correct, that does not mean that actions should have been weighted 100% based on a prediction that may have earlier had a 20% chance of being correct but when it ends up being correct that 20% then becomes 100%.. but does not even mean that the odds had been wrongly established at the earlier time before the event became true. If anyone has followed my own BTC strategies over the years, which I would assert have been pretty damned consistent, even if I have attempted to learn along the way and tweak from time to time, I have many times proclaimed that guys need to attempt to establish their bitcoin plans/strategies in accordance with their own personal circumstances and then consider whether they are in accumulation stage, maintenance stage or liquidation stage so their personal circumstances and what stage they are in would affect their strategies... yet even after establishing strategies and reaching goals, there can be ways of deciding what to do that attempts to both take out emotions and to take out needs for short term predictions. After largely reaching my BTC accumulation targets in 2014 and 2015 (and even considering myself to have had over-accumulated), my own strategy has been to buy on the way down and to sell on the way up (which I largely started in late 2015 when BTC prices were around $250), and to both attempt to spread the ranges of the triggering of the buy/sell orders, and also to error on the side of ongoingly accumulating BTC.. and largely I have never really sold much on the way up (currently less than 1% for every 15%-ish rise..even though sometimes I do make adjustments to those numbers with the passage of time based on some cashflow considerations going on in my life.. and maybe a little bit adjustments that account for certain aspects of what I believe to be short term BTC price momentum)....so in that regard, I believe that since around mid-to-late 2015, my BTC portfolio has been (and continues to be) advantaged by seemingly inevitable BTC volatility, presume that the BTC price is going up in the long run and just go with the flow regarding if the BTCprice goes down I buy and if the price goes up I sell .. so there are attempts at: 1) being emotional neutral regarding short-term BTC price moves, 2) largely not allowing predictions to affect buy/sell strategies, except maybe in very small ways (aka ongoing employment of incrementalism strategies) and 3) presuming that in the long term - and at least in 4 years cycles (if not longer) that the BTC price will be higher - even if from time to time it might take a while to work itself out - such as 2-3 years of DOWNity periods.. which we have seen at least a couple times while I have been in and even shorter periods of threatening going into longer periods of DOWNity that end up being shorter periods. By the way, sometimes I experience some dilemmas regarding how low to keep my BTC buy orders, and currently I have buy orders that go down to $20k-ish.. and in March 2021 I was criticized for keeping buy orders down to $9k.. even though later those buy orders did end up getting removed.n I have always attempted to project ahead regarding the amount that I sell on the way up.. so in 2015 I had projected that I would sell up to 40% or so of my BTC portfolio in the event that BTC prices went shooting up, but when push came to shove during early 2017-ish as BTC prices had already begun rising, I was ongoingly down-tweaking the quantity of my BTC sales - because I was realizing in practice my system was causing me to sell way more of my BTC than I really wanted to sell, so by the time the BTC price reached supra $19k levels in late 2017, I had realized that I had sold nearly 12% of my BTC.. so my BTC/cash allocations in my BTC portfolio were 88/12... and sure maybe that felt good when the BTC price corrected in 2018, but I still felt as if I had sold too much.. so currently, my BTC sales projections within my regular system do not cause me to sell close to as much BTC, even during considerably great exponential UPpity periods, if they were to continue to happen. If you have been following bitcoin circles (such as this forum or some other bitcoin circles), you may well have noticed that historically there frequently have been a decent number of folks who end up failing and refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in BTC prices.., happens over and over and over again.. so one thing is being invested in various fiat investments and another thing is being invested in bitcoin.. and having some kinds of decent long term plans.. and surely it can take a while to accumulate BTC too.... Something I am reminded of often enough, as we'se discussed in previous posts. Discounting those who exited at predetermined prices (fairplay to them, even if those targets were $10,000k) since they left and never came back and never then entered into regret and bitter mode. But always surprised me when I was new to the scene and meeting supposed veterans who'd given up, and then only to stick around and then go into some weird game of trying to guess the top again, only to inevitably fail because they always think too "rationally" and "conservatively". They then revert to trader mentality from being holders. And it's kind of sad to see that. Yes... it is very good to highlight that trader versus investor approach to matters, and for my own situation, I have never really considered myself as a trader because my first 1.5 years I ONLY bought (and got to my BTC accumulation targets - and somewhat beyond them). So I have always considered myself as a BTC HODLer and accumulator, but at some point if you realize that you have way over accumulated, then it seems to become practical to allow for sales and even to allow for the shaving off of extra as the price goes up and to potentially use that money if the BTC price goes back down.. but if it never goes back down, then so what, you have shaved off profitable and you already have way more than enough BTC. For example, for ease of calculation, imagine an average cost of BTC of $1k, and so when the BTC price goes up to $20k, then you are 20x in profits, but when the BTC price crashes down to $3k/$4k, you are ONLY 3x/4x in profits. So yeah, you might be a bit reluctant to shave any BTC off at 3x/4x profits, but you might not give too many shits - however, when the BTC price goes to $69k and maybe drops to $28k, yeah your profits are moving around between 28x and 69x, so sure you might try to strategize somewhat in shaving off some profits, but largely you are not likely to give too many shits if you happen to need to buy something that is with 28x profits rather than waiting it out for higher levels of profits.. and surely you may also just have extra cash that has already been shaven off along the way up from $3k up to $69k, so it is not like you are cash starved and having to sell BTC at a time that is anything other than your own choosing even if they BTC prices happen to "ONLY" be in 28x profits rather than 69x profits. By the way buwaytress, your point about too conservative or too rational does also seem to apply because there do seem to be a lot of traps that many of us longer termers have seen the new entrants fall into. Sometimes the thoughts might be: "holy shit, not this again," but there are ongoing plugging BTC into categories in which it just does not fit, failure refusal to account for various currently valid BTC price prediction models, treating BTC as if it were a mature asset class (or some kind of stock or company or some other nonsense), and there might be some other similar newer entrant (and not even saying that these are dumb people) mistakes that are not coming into my head at the moment. I understand what you are saying, but JayJuanGee is a man that is more posting in the wall observer thread, the reason for more optimism about bitcoin price. I wish I can be like that. But I am a type that is waiting for dump so that I can buy the dip ;D. I hope you will get me righta about this. Of course there are people who are more into fundamental analysis and others more into technical analysis and surely a variety of ways to figure out how much weight to give to the varying ways of attempting to figure out short-term price direction in order that you can attempt to profit from it. I never try to blame people for their actual status because for sure there are guys who are either just coming into BTC or they have issues with their cashflow so that it takes a whole hell of a long time to be able to get a kind of sufficient stake in BTC in order to feel that you have either reached your accumulation goals or that you have at least had enough time to accumulate and prepare for UP. Once you have either reached accumulation targets or gotten to a feeling that you are somewhat close then likely you will discontinue being concerned about whether the BTC price drops or not because any extra BTC accumulation starts to feel like icing on the cake and/or extra rather than your feelings that you have not yet come close to reaching your BTC accumulation goals. JayJuanGee is just one of the people on this forum that is more optimistic about bitcoin price, and to me his analysis is right, the analysis that has been right from long time till now. Just to clarify; I'm also bullish on bitcoin and I don't think it'll be $75k by the end of the year (and maybe a little from January), but lots more. I'm just saying that due to pure speculation, you can't say that someone's analysis is correct or incorrect. Based on which factors do we examine that an analysis is right?I think that you can. I can say that in my opinion you are "likely" to be wwwwwwrrrrrrrooooooonnnnnngggggg.... what is so bad about that? If you say that "your opinion" needs to be backed up more, then sure you are not persuaded, but does not necessarily mean that there is any further need to back up either an opinion or an assertion that some other analysis is likely wrong.. sure you might buy into the other analysis because it is more backed up than the opinion, but the analysis still could have high odds of being wrong, even if it is backed up by maths, science, facts, logic and whatever other mumbo jumbo that you want to throw in there. By the way, I had already asserted that I had lauded mikeywith for his discussion of his chart and his analysis even while saying that I believe that he is likely wrong... I doubt that I need to do more.. even though I did provide some additional discussion already. I wish I can be like that. I wish I wouldn't. It's overrated. You keep waiting for a crazy spike that lasts few hours for months! :PMany peeps have that same problem.. It can be difficult to take your eyes off of the charts - especially when you keep expecting something to happen (that may or may not end up happening, as you rightly point out BlackHatCoiner. Short term bitcoin prediction can be inaccurate, even analysts are predicting it wrong with their professional analyses, but no one is wrong about the long term all-time-high prediction. I see it like this: The more you wait, the less the odds to not go upwards. Professional, non-professional — it works!That makes little sense BlackHatCoiner. In BTC, sometimes breakouts are to the upside and sometimes breakouts are to the downside, and if we are in a bull market (which is likely to be the case right now), then the odds for breaking out to the upside are greater than the odds for breaking out to the downside. Sure we might not be in a bull market.. and we might not even know if we are in a bull or a bear market until looking at the matter a few years down the road. Of course, part of the justification or background for differing assessments regarding where the BTC price is going is to project whether we might be in a bull market or a bear market, and surely people do not always get those projections right, and surely some people make their preparations so that they are going to be able to profit whether they are right or not. Of course, there are a lot of variations in between regarding how people use these kinds of frameworks and the extent that they are ready, willing or able to act upon their assessments/projections of the frameworks. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: STT on November 20, 2021, 07:46:53 PM At this point even with the latest tinge of negative action in the price and our pullback I really dont think my guess of 45k will deliver on the day. Its a bit too negative, 50k or so might be in with a shot but it'd take an over correction to the downside to get 45k. Still possible but in the red for probability in outcomes I think
Over correction can happen but it's like pushing an empty bottle under the surface of the water, the buoyancy likely in price at that time really makes such a dip most likely to be brief. Just the timing is off, we can decline obviously but we aren't in that area for the end of this competition. Hopefully Im wrong and its dead on of course :p 2 weeks and a few days left Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: BlackHatCoiner on November 20, 2021, 09:59:58 PM I wish I could talk to JayJuanGee in his mother tongue as I understand little of what he says, but I really feel he's one of those people who grab the most important topics and, both of you, talk about them for hours during windy nights of Christmas.
You seem to be inventing a strawman argument here. I put very little weight to either supercycle theories or to UP only ideas, though I do acknowledge that there have been some credible folks coming over to supercycle theories even though even they are not proclaiming the disappearance of corrections along the way. Straw man? No. I'm just saying that you shouldn't take it for granted it'll repeat those 4-year cycles. Although, I'm of the same belief it will, there's no proof it will.You are generalizing a lot here, and I am not even clear about what you are saying. Are you talking about supra $64k/$100k for this prediction game? or for the calendar year? or for the cycle? No, no, I didn't take that stand. What I was trying to mean is that there are lots of people who predict and therefore lots of predictions where most of them turn out incorrect and justifiably some, correct. If you make a hundred of predictions, it is logical to assume you will be right at least once.I can say that in my opinion you are "likely" to be wwwwwwrrrrrrrooooooonnnnnngggggg.... You can't say that my analysis is incorrect just like you can't say x + y = 3. It's not a matter of opinions unless we define our factors.That makes little sense BlackHatCoiner. In BTC, sometimes breakouts are to the upside and sometimes breakouts are to the downside And yet, bitcoin has provided, averagely, 180% annual yield (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5351947.0) since the first halving. That means it gives more than it takes. :PTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 20, 2021, 10:32:29 PM I wish I could talk to JayJuanGee in his mother tongue as I understand little of what he says, but I really feel he's one of those people who grab the most important topics and, both of you, talk about them for hours during windy nights of Christmas. Sorry to hear that we might be talking past each other from time to time. You seem to be inventing a strawman argument here. I put very little weight to either supercycle theories or to UP only ideas, though I do acknowledge that there have been some credible folks coming over to supercycle theories even though even they are not proclaiming the disappearance of corrections along the way. Straw man? No. I'm just saying that you shouldn't take it for granted it'll repeat those 4-year cycles. Although, I'm of the same belief it will, there's no proof it will.Hm? Is this one of those occasions that we might be talking past each other? I am not sure if I need to add anything beyond what I already said and maybe you are not saying anything that is too much different from what I am saying. Let's just take the $75k ceiling for this Calendar year. If I say that there is less than a 50% chance of such ceiling existing and not being breached this calendar year..or at least somewhere in the ballpark of a 50% chance, and you are providing higher probabilities that such ceiling will NOT be breached this Calendar year (let's say that you assert that there is a 70% chance that it will not be breached this calendar year), then are we saying anything that much different beyond that we are assigning differing probabilities? You are generalizing a lot here, and I am not even clear about what you are saying. Are you talking about supra $64k/$100k for this prediction game? or for the calendar year? or for the cycle? No, no, I didn't take that stand. What I was trying to mean is that there are lots of people who predict and therefore lots of predictions where most of them turn out incorrect and justifiably some, correct. If you make a hundred of predictions, it is logical to assume you will be right at least once.Sure of course some predictions are also more correct than others, and some people profit stupendously off of their actions that might be to attempt to align their acts with their predictions by having some bitcoin while others stay as no coiners or low coiners and end up continuing to be left behind either selling BTC too early, waiting for lower prices that do not happen and/or failing/refusing to sufficiently prepare for UP just in case it happens (and including assigning way the fuck too low of probabilities to UP that ends up happening in spite their supposedly sound and practical predictions). We have seen such failure/refusal to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP over and over and over in bitcoin history. It has been a common theme, and I suspect that it will continue to be a decently common theme for quite a while into the future. I can say that in my opinion you are "likely" to be wwwwwwrrrrrrrooooooonnnnnngggggg.... You can't say that my analysis is incorrect just like you can't say x + y = 3. It's not a matter of opinions unless we define our factors.Seems that I have already sufficiently defined my factors.. including my conclusions that I have sufficiently and adequately backed up anything that I was saying or wanting to say on the topic. If you want to make some further assertions that's on you. That makes little sense BlackHatCoiner. In BTC, sometimes breakouts are to the upside and sometimes breakouts are to the downside And yet, bitcoin has provided, averagely, 180% annual yield (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5351947.0) since the first halving. That means it gives more than it takes. :PAgain? I am not sure if I follow what you are wanting to say. One thing is to talk about cycles and another thing is talking about being adequately prepared for either UP or DOWN, if you believe that there might be some kind of advantage in preparing for whichever way bitcoin might break out of our current price range. Let's say for example, you want to describe our current price range of $55k to $75k, and you assert that $75k is the top of this range, at least for this calendar year, but that information (or even level of assertions regarding BTC price movements) might not be enough to act unless you would also be making some assertions regarding where the BTC price might be going in 2022 (whether we are referring to the 1st, 2nd or 3rd quarter). I doubt that we really need to be batting this topic around anymore because I don't see where we are having any kind of major or significant disagreements beyond opinions and your beliefs that I need to back up my assertions more and surely, as I already mentioned several times, I don't agree with that. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on November 21, 2021, 08:54:45 AM Yeah, I didn't point it out to those I encountered as I was still a noob then (and will forever feel that way for some reason) but it pains me to see holders/investors inadvertently turn into traders, trying to time sells/buys, squeezing themselves for time and worry when their old strategy of simply stacking regularly regardless of price was the most time-efficient and most flexible, and most worry-free!
I definitely could never consider myself as a trader (ignoring some unhappy altcoin experiments years ago) -- I sell regularly but that's because I earn or charge in Bitcoin, and effectively I try to add to my holdings with every month's income rather than eat into it. I have little qualms about liquidating when I need the cash, for example, and last year December I had to let go a significant portion so I could fix a real-life problem, something I haven't been able to recover in the 11 months that's passed -- but this doesn't make me unhappy, and I'm still stacking it back up whatever the price action in 2021. Like you, I still know every single satoshi I sold in Dec 2020 was for profit, and whatever I had left has almost tripled in value. And whatever I buy this year should hold most of its value in coming years, and potentially be worth much more a little farther down. Now if I were to switch to trader mode, I honestly would have lost the plot. Yes... it is very good to highlight that trader versus investor approach to matters, and for my own situation, I have never really considered myself as a trader because my first 1.5 years I ONLY bought (and got to my BTC accumulation targets - and somewhat beyond them). So I have always considered myself as a BTC HODLer and accumulator, but at some point if you realize that you have way over accumulated, then it seems to become practical to allow for sales and even to allow for the shaving off of extra as the price goes up and to potentially use that money if the BTC price goes back down.. but if it never goes back down, then so what, you have shaved off profitable and you already have way more than enough BTC. By the way buwaytress, your point about too conservative or too rational does also seem to apply because there do seem to be a lot of traps that many of us longer termers have seen the new entrants fall into. Sometimes the thoughts might be: "holy shit, not this again," but there are ongoing plugging BTC into categories in which it just does not fit, failure refusal to account for various currently valid BTC price prediction models, treating BTC as if it were a mature asset class (or some kind of stock or company or some other nonsense), and there might be some other similar newer entrant (and not even saying that these are dumb people) mistakes that are not coming into my head at the moment. It 100% does seem to apply and as difficult as it may be for our minds to grasp (even mine), I REALLY like this phrase from you, which is perhaps the biggest mistake to make: to regard Bitcoin as a mature asset class or to even attempt to categorise it into an existing class. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on November 21, 2021, 11:21:02 PM Yeah, I didn't point it out to those I encountered as I was still a noob then (and will forever feel that way for some reason) but it pains me to see holders/investors inadvertently turn into traders, trying to time sells/buys, squeezing themselves for time and worry when their old strategy of simply stacking regularly regardless of price was the most time-efficient and most flexible, and most worry-free! I definitely could never consider myself as a trader (ignoring some unhappy altcoin experiments years ago) -- I sell regularly but that's because I earn or charge in Bitcoin, and effectively I try to add to my holdings with every month's income rather than eat into it. I have little qualms about liquidating when I need the cash, for example, and last year December I had to let go a significant portion so I could fix a real-life problem, something I haven't been able to recover in the 11 months that's passed -- but this doesn't make me unhappy, and I'm still stacking it back up whatever the price action in 2021. Like you, I still know every single satoshi I sold in Dec 2020 was for profit, and whatever I had left has almost tripled in value. And whatever I buy this year should hold most of its value in coming years, and potentially be worth much more a little farther down. Now if I were to switch to trader mode, I honestly would have lost the plot. Yes... it is very good to highlight that trader versus investor approach to matters, and for my own situation, I have never really considered myself as a trader because my first 1.5 years I ONLY bought (and got to my BTC accumulation targets - and somewhat beyond them). So I have always considered myself as a BTC HODLer and accumulator, but at some point if you realize that you have way over accumulated, then it seems to become practical to allow for sales and even to allow for the shaving off of extra as the price goes up and to potentially use that money if the BTC price goes back down.. but if it never goes back down, then so what, you have shaved off profitable and you already have way more than enough BTC. By the way buwaytress, your point about too conservative or too rational does also seem to apply because there do seem to be a lot of traps that many of us longer termers have seen the new entrants fall into. Sometimes the thoughts might be: "holy shit, not this again," but there are ongoing plugging BTC into categories in which it just does not fit, failure refusal to account for various currently valid BTC price prediction models, treating BTC as if it were a mature asset class (or some kind of stock or company or some other nonsense), and there might be some other similar newer entrant (and not even saying that these are dumb people) mistakes that are not coming into my head at the moment. It 100% does seem to apply and as difficult as it may be for our minds to grasp (even mine), I REALLY like this phrase from you, which is perhaps the biggest mistake to make: to regard Bitcoin as a mature asset class or to even attempt to categorise it into an existing class. I earn btc and I buy btc. And I stack btc and I sell btc. So doing all of the above and playing safe has accomplished two things. I never got crushed. I made far less than I would have if I just purchased and hodled. So I flattened risk hugely = good But I reduced huge profits greatly. Back to this game my 70k by may prediction in april has so far turned out to be a curse. So I would like to see us get past it even if it is not on the day for this game to end. Good luck to all from 50k to 80k as I do think 🤔 the winner is going to be in that range. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on November 21, 2021, 11:33:51 PM Same question…. Would anyone adjust there price range if they had a chance and why or reason? Not a chance. :) Right on schedule. Right on schedule. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 22, 2021, 04:53:57 AM I earn btc and I buy btc. And I stack btc and I sell btc. So doing all of the above and playing safe has accomplished two things. I never got crushed. I made far less than I would have if I just purchased and hodled. So I flattened risk hugely = good But I reduced huge profits greatly. Largely, it remains quite difficult to second guess the judgement of other folks, but I do comment on your situation Philip and suggestions of good practices and prudence fairly regularly because I do feel that there is a bit of a need to suggest that having somewhat aggressive and assertive BTC tactics remains a kind of prudent approach... And, just ongoingly I get quite a bit agitated by what I have perceived as your historical lacking and aggression.. but you ongoingly recommend various levels of prudence that just seem to ongoingly bother me in terms of lacking... Sure, maybe now you might realize (perhaps? perhaps? I am not sure.) to error on the side of BTC stacking aggressiveness and assertiveness. For sure, there is an age component that may well cause additional justification to be more aggressive.. In the USA, there are extra allowances for people over 50 years old to be able to invest more in their retirement programs partly because we already know that there tends to be a pretty common practice of too wimpy investments into retirement packages and so frequently people in their 50s and 60s might come around to realize that they have not built up enough of a nest egg.. similar remains true with regards to what role a bitcoin investment could end up contributing... Let's say (getting into a kind of hypothetical here) that there might be some folks who reach their 50s-ish and they might have 50% or so equity in their house.. perhaps higher since housing prices have gone up so much, and maybe they have something like a 401k plan and so maybe all together they might only have $200k.. in equity (or total investments), so a 1-10% investment in BTC would be $2k to $20k, but with that level of lackings then maybe they would end up wanting to push towards higher on the investments. I understand that you, Philip, only came around towards being more aggressive in more recent times.. but from my perspective, you still do seem to post a lot about selling (which surely is a kind of business practicality) but still does not seem to really account very well for the idea that I have frequently attempted to share in regards to selling of BTC is not really very justified until you are over invested... that's been my view... and so once you are feeling overinvested then there is some justification in shaving some of that off. So then back to threshold questions regarding how much is overinvested has to account for individual circumstances and age would surely be one of them...... maybe I should just stop? Because I am thinking that even something like a $10k to $20k investment into BTC when you got started or even as late as 2015 or 2016 or even 2017 with an average cost of $1k per BTC would have put you between 10-20BTC.. and then from there over-investment might have been maintaining the 10-20BTC and then shaving off the top of that without ever going below whatever that 10-20BTC that had been established. You can probably notice that I continue to have trouble with the way you are describing your situation.. but let's say that you concede that you completely fucked up in the accumulation of BTC department and you did not realize the extent that you fucked up until something like 2017/2018.. so then at that point, maybe we can appreciate that $10k to $20k of investment of BTC would ONLY get you something like 1.5BTC to 3.5 BTC... so at that point, you might not even want to really be engaging in any kind of meaningful sales of BTC until you reach the accumulation target and surely some guys would suggest that you should be trying to get to at or over 3.5BTC before you engage in anything beyond de-minimus selling of BTC. Another situation for those who are ONLY starting to accumulate BTC now.. so their initial goals might not even be practically to get to 1 BTC.. because 1BTC has gotten out of reach for those folks... so they start with goals 0.21BTC or something like that.... and surely if there are possibilities to average into BTC at today's prices of $55k to $65k.. let's say $60k on average, then a BTC beginning level of accumulation might be to get to putting $10k to $20k into BTC, but that is ONLY going to get 0.167 BTC to 0.3333 BTC.. and are we going to start to feel overinvested as a newbie until either the BTC price does a 10x or maybe we continue to stack sats and get to some kind of higher meaningful amount.. which surely we might not start to consider ourselves as overinvested until we get to higher investment levels going back to an assumption of maybe having a total investment portfolio size of $200k=ish.. then maybe our BTC value would need to be quite a bit higher than our initial investment if we had put $10k to $20k into it and then if the BTC portion starts to value 25% to 50% of our overall investment holdings in all assets, then maybe at that point we would start to feel over-invested? Yes.. people are going to come to differing determinations regarding how to decide whether they are over-invested and at what point are they justified in starting to skim off some BTC.... so even for those of you who are engaged in mining or earning BTC as a business, it seems to me that you still should be going through these kinds of calculations and being careful not to be overly selling your BTC until you might reach overinvested status.. and even then you still might want to be careful regarding that..especially when it continues to have the selling to much too soon risk... which seems to be an ongoing balancing matter and not just that some folks might have done that in the past. ***Maybe JJG might be able to snap out of judgmental/patronizing lecturing mode..?.. a batman slap to the lil selfie.. might be helpful? perhaps? perhaps? :'( :'( :'( Back to this game my 70k by may prediction in april has so far turned out to be a curse. Seems like we are going to get there sooner or later.. and maybe there is just a kind of desire (whether king daddy has desires) to linger so much and to cause frustration and to cause some folks to start to believe that bitcoin has upside limits.... and sure there are upside limits especially when we account for both time and price.. and so down the road, $70k-ish might end up being our floor price rather than our ceiling.. but surely so hard to consider $70k as a floor as anything other than a fantasy when we seem to be having so many seemingly ongoing difficulties getting above it.. - well over 7 months now, as you mentioned... and gosh another several months might really cause some shaking of weak hands.. hahahahahaha if that is even possible? Good to attempt to account for a variety of possible scenarios.. even though some are more reasonable/likely than others.So I would like to see us get past it even if it is not on the day for this game to end. Good luck to all from 50k to 80k as I do think 🤔 the winner is going to be in that range. Personally, I still consider $55k to $80k to be a deadman's zone.. which surely means that BTC prices being above the zone would have good chances of happening.. but surely there are a quite few challenges to such framing in recent times.. and yeah could be a way to shake some more weak hands to end up popping out of deadman's zone to the downside rather than to the upside.. if that were to even be possible.... I hate to say it.. Is it even possible? Yes it is.. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/f2TsOLEPbgH1T0SDoDXhvxv-6qn-xkLTQHN4sjQibYCSk40ydclfniJg3DkVn2eEUat9GXQiAFkK5n7oYt6I6FD_70YloC3J9hS1UQTJc3Znxvkh8xgfxBBpUOq0kBSW_zV7stXWYGScBvFvEa849y4OwKMB2uhUVQg But surely in terms of the game... gosh.. getting into the 2 weekstm time-frame, which surely can be difficult to be expecting too much in two weeks.. even though sometimes BTC price moves do end up happening quickly and violently.. but even the quick and violent does seem to have some limits, too... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 22, 2021, 08:28:19 AM Good luck to all from 50k to 80k as I do think 🤔 the winner is going to be in that range. https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1459842799000555532 Quote $98K Nov and $135K Dec prediction still in play https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FEJmpKeXoAYpuPo?format=png&name=large Six digits by December, “still in play” according to PlanB. Do you believe there’s currently a “very low” probability for Bitcoin to do that, or should everyone be open-minded? I doubted him twice before, but he was always right. Because if Bitcoin surged to $75,000 this week, the mood and price predictions will change again. 8) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on November 22, 2021, 10:40:39 AM Six digits by December, “still in play” according to PlanB. Do you believe there’s currently a “very low” probability for Bitcoin to do that, or should everyone be open-minded? I doubted him twice before, but he was always right. Because if Bitcoin surged to $75,000 this week, the mood and price predictions will change again. 8) Didn't intend for my prediction to line up with PlanB. Happy to know he's been accurate so far, to the point of scary spot on price points but it might be a point too far to hope he gets the last 2 months right as well -- but since my prediction is 6 figures, I'll be very happy to celebrate the truth chart aligning perfectly with s2f(x). Some more stumbling on Monday trading but a return to 70k in the final stretch of November will definitely be a huge step backwards for bear efforts thus far... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on November 22, 2021, 10:56:28 AM Didn't intend for my prediction to line up with PlanB. Happy to know he's been accurate so far, to the point of scary spot on price points I haven't followed everything he posted, but from what I saw, I got the impression he was awefully quiet during the last 50% dip. And when the price went up, his prediction was back :DTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on November 25, 2021, 01:28:15 PM Didn't intend for my prediction to line up with PlanB. Happy to know he's been accurate so far, to the point of scary spot on price points I haven't followed everything he posted, but from what I saw, I got the impression he was awefully quiet during the last 50% dip. And when the price went up, his prediction was back :DHe accepted falling short on $98k but still optimistic other parts :) Quote Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). S2F model not affected and indeed on track towards $100K. https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1463849685924388866?s=21 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on November 25, 2021, 05:48:37 PM He accepted falling short on $98k Seriously, with 5 days to go? I'm disappointed.Quote Quote will probably be a first miss (image source (https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/840283-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance)) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: goldkingcoiner on November 26, 2021, 01:03:29 AM Here comes my 47.5k prediction. If anybody is asking how I did it: I have my own time machine, obviously. Its a blue box I stole from some british guy. I will be donating my winnings to myself and the foundation which donates to me only :P ::)
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on November 26, 2021, 09:41:21 AM Six digits by December, “still in play” according to PlanB. Do you believe there’s currently a “very low” probability for Bitcoin to do that, or should everyone be open-minded? I doubted him twice before, but he was always right. Because if Bitcoin surged to $75,000 this week, the mood and price predictions will change again. 8) Didn't intend for my prediction to line up with PlanB. Happy to know he's been accurate so far, to the point of scary spot on price points but it might be a point too far to hope he gets the last 2 months right as well -- but since my prediction is 6 figures, I'll be very happy to celebrate the truth chart aligning perfectly with s2f(x). Some more stumbling on Monday trading but a return to 70k in the final stretch of November will definitely be a huge step backwards for bear efforts thus far... I believe the mood will not change, and no end of the month surge is expected. There were some people in Twitter saying to “make as much money as you can before December 30”. Bitcoin might reach six digits on December, then crash? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on November 26, 2021, 10:06:02 AM Bitcoin might reach six digits on December, then crash? In Dutch we say: het kan vriezen en het kan dooien. For Bitcoin, I expect anything from 10% of the current price to 1000% of the current price in the coming year. I'd be surprised if my very broad prediction is incorrect ;)For what it's worth: my money is on the bullish side. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on November 26, 2021, 02:17:15 PM Bitcoin might reach six digits on December, then crash? In Dutch we say: het kan vriezen en het kan dooien. For Bitcoin, I expect anything from 10% of the current price to 1000% of the current price in the coming year. I'd be surprised if my very broad prediction is incorrect ;)For what it's worth: my money is on the bullish side. I'm with you on this and yeah I've actually seen myself on random Twitter influencers-of-doubtful-standing using a 31 Dec marker, so something is definitely brewing. I don't expect Bitcoin markets to be immature enough to actually react to such a psychological date, but if other markets do, it tends to influence Bitcoin in some way. 10% a day is what I expect, so what's happening right now (-7.5%) is perfectly normal... ...and I've become so normalised that 1000% in a month is still on the cards for me. My crypto, since I'm never pulling it out of wallet if the bull target isn't met, is on the bullish side. I don't mind losing, it just means another few years wait. I've done that. I can do it again. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on November 26, 2021, 02:52:08 PM I've actually seen myself on random Twitter influencers-of-doubtful-standing using a 31 Dec marker, so something is definitely brewing. I don't expect Bitcoin markets to be immature enough to actually react to such a psychological date, but if other markets do, it tends to influence Bitcoin in some way. It works both ways: December 2017 was the peak, so many expect the same again this year. So I expect those people to try to sell a bit earlier, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.On the other hand, others are no doubt looking to buy the dip, and if the dip doesn't happen, it can quickly turn into FOMO. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: NeuroticFish on November 26, 2021, 06:01:28 PM December 2017 was the peak, so many expect the same again this year. I kinda doubt this. While in 2017 the ATH was indeed in December, wasn't the 2013 ATH in November? So maybe the rule should be "in the last months of the year", not necessarily December... Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 26, 2021, 06:42:13 PM Bitcoin might reach six digits on December, then crash? In Dutch we say: het kan vriezen en het kan dooien. For Bitcoin, I expect anything from 10% of the current price to 1000% of the current price in the coming year. I'd be surprised if my very broad prediction is incorrect ;)For what it's worth: my money is on the bullish side. That seems a bit of a too equal attempt to create neutrality in your perspective when bitcoin is actually inclined UPpity. Sure, if bitcoin reaches a top of a peak, then the 10% of the current price is a prudent assertion. Dire predictions of 10% of current prices (that's $5,400-ish) are really pie in the sky.. and probably the most that you could get from current prices would be something like $15k.. which would be around 28%-ish... ... In other words, for sure if BTC prices shot up to supra to $200k in a short period of time and gosh even up to $1.5 million, then the higher the shoot up in the shorter amount of time, then your 10% of then current prices becomes more and more plausible.. which would be between $20k and $150k respectively for the BIG correction from those shoot-up numbers of $200k-ish to $1.5million-ish. I am just asserting that we should attempt to be a bit more discerning when we are attempting to make realistic outrageous BTC price performance scenarios, and sure we know anything could happen, including Armageddon.. but just seems quite out there to be giving any kind of "to take seriously" assertion to the most extreme of the Armageddon outlines. ...and I've become so normalised that 1000% in a month is still on the cards for me. I know that we have seen outrageous scenarios to the upside in bitcoin, too.. but 1,000% in a month is just not in any of the normie cards... even though it would be in fantasylandia cards... I am not sure if I need to elaborate.. but just think about if we have a ramping up of BTC price to the upside.. by the time we start to get to 2x in any particular month, then we are getting close to a blow off top.. so sure we could end up getting 10x over a couple of months or maybe it could take at least three.. I am not sure.. but we gotta attempt to be somewhat realistic, no? Show me any recent and materially relevant historical examples that come even close to 10x in a month?... and the larger the market cap (even though liquidity does get removed from exchanges), the more difficult it does become to get something like 10x BTC price performances in a month.. .. Sure when BTC prices were at $2 (in 2011/2012).. we might have had some of those kinds of 10x in a month.. but even in more modern times like 2013 (a pretty damned exponential period), we had 100x in less than a year, our at the end of the cycle 10x took around 3 months to play out.. the same in 2017 (another pretty damned exponential period of 78x for the overall bullrun from late 2015 to late 2017 and around supra 25x for the 12 months preceding the top) .. the 10x portion of that end of the cycle took probably longer than 6 months to play out. I've actually seen myself on random Twitter influencers-of-doubtful-standing using a 31 Dec marker, so something is definitely brewing. I don't expect Bitcoin markets to be immature enough to actually react to such a psychological date, but if other markets do, it tends to influence Bitcoin in some way. It works both ways: December 2017 was the peak, so many expect the same again this year. So I expect those people to try to sell a bit earlier, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.On the other hand, others are no doubt looking to buy the dip, and if the dip doesn't happen, it can quickly turn into FOMO. I don't know about those "self-fulfilling" prophecy theories, and really seems to me that when too many people start to expect something with a quite a bit of conviction, that causes quite a bit of fuel for reckening of those kinds of peeps fitting in those somewhat rigid expectation categories. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on November 27, 2021, 10:11:43 AM ...and I've become so normalised that 1000% in a month is still on the cards for me. I know that we have seen outrageous scenarios to the upside in bitcoin, too.. but 1,000% in a month is just not in any of the normie cards... even though it would be in fantasylandia cards... I am not sure if I need to elaborate.. I was being tongue-in-cheek in my post, as was responding to someone else's 1000% tongue in cheek, but no I've not quite made the move to fantasialand despite all my deepest wishes ;) so no need to elaborate haha! Never mind 10x but even 4x in a month to me would not be a normie move for sure (and I will say quite firmly though normal is absolutely relative and even though I haven't seen 10000% move for Bitcoin in my lifetime active, and as you say, a 2x move in a month would already be a signal screaming for everyone to be cautious). Tempered against that, for me to reach my prediction now I almost need a 2x move in 10 days, I would need to be visiting fantasialand but I'm all checked out for now, and waiting to see if LoyceV's latter comments on December FOMO could come through. Meanwhile for the next 10 days, these are the guys I'm looking at the most now: 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 27, 2021, 06:49:17 PM ...and I've become so normalised that 1000% in a month is still on the cards for me. I know that we have seen outrageous scenarios to the upside in bitcoin, too.. but 1,000% in a month is just not in any of the normie cards... even though it would be in fantasylandia cards... I am not sure if I need to elaborate.. I was being tongue-in-cheek in my post, as was responding to someone else's 1000% tongue in cheek, but no I've not quite made the move to fantasialand despite all my deepest wishes ;) so no need to elaborate haha! Never mind 10x but even 4x in a month to me would not be a normie move for sure (and I will say quite firmly though normal is absolutely relative and even though I haven't seen 10000% move for Bitcoin in my lifetime active, and as you say, a 2x move in a month would already be a signal screaming for everyone to be cautious). Tempered against that, for me to reach my prediction now I almost need a 2x move in 10 days, I would need to be visiting fantasialand but I'm all checked out for now, and waiting to see if LoyceV's latter comments on December FOMO could come through. Meanwhile for the next 10 days, these are the guys I'm looking at the most now: 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) I agree that your prediction of $102,345 was pretty reasonable at the time that the predictions were being made, but surely it is seeming nearly impossible to reach in the remainder time for the game ... and even it might be a bit difficult to reach before the end of the calendar year since it seems that historically we have tended to get a bit of a ramping up before getting those kinds of UPwards price moves... and our recent activities have been pushing down.. so surely somehow momentum would need to change.. even a violent wick down or something could end up causing some kind of a BIG move up yet even those subsequent moves up can sometimes take some time to play out.. .. such as our 3.5x move up in April 2019 that took three months to play out from $4,200 to $13,800... but we did have a 12 hour BTC price rise on October 25, 2019 from $7,200-ish to $10,200-ish (which would be about 40%) that was all given back to the market over then subsequent 30 days with a correction back down to $6,500-ish (https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zig30-minzczsg2019-10-21zeg2019-11-26ztgMza1gSMAzm1g104za2gSMAzm2g208zv). For sure, BIGGER BTC prices does cause some needs for BIGGER players to be in the market (or even the leveraged products to end up getting liquidated) for the BTC prices to end up moving so greatly in such short periods of time, and personally I do believe that the overall BTC market does continue to have the ability for exponential price changes (even to the UPside) in a relatively short period of time. Let's get back to 10x.. since that is such a lovely number.. think about 10x from here and we would end up having BTC prices going from $55k-ish to $550k-ish.. and how long would be consider for that to be reasonable to play out? 1, 2 or 3 quarters? For me, 2 quarters seems doable... and 3 quarters almost would seem as if some of our currently existing and credible BTC price prediction models of stock to flow and four year fractal would be getting pushed to some kind of questionable limit in terms of their applicability.. even though our exponential s-curve adoption model that is based on networking effects and Metcalfe principles would still remain quite applicable in terms of recognizing a BTC price exponential period of something like 10x that might end up dragging out 3-ish quarters from now. For sure the best that we have are quasi-educated guesses concerning what seems feasible even if there might end up being some surprise aspects regarding how BTC price movements end up playing out and what we might believe are reasonable in terms of their playing out - even accounting for potential outrageous scenarios (preferably to the upside, but outrageous could go in either direction, sad to admit). Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM The last time BTC went up 10x was from the March 2020 lows to the beginning of this year. It took about 9 months, but the March 2020 lows were only that low due to a crash that caused the price to decline (and quickly mostly recover) by around 50-60% in a matter of days. If you remove that few-day window when BTC was trading in the $3k range, it took almost two years for bitcoin to trade below $6k (may 2019) until it hit $60k (March 2021).
I don't think bitcoin has gone down 90% from any peak in the last 5 years, but it has gone down by a lot. As mentioned, it went down from just under $9k to the mid $3k range in March 2020. It went down ~45% from May to June of this year. It went down around 55% from December '18 to February '19 (it bottomed out in December '18 being down ~85% from the previous peak). If you lower the threshold to going up 5x, bitcoin last did that from September '20 to February of this year (5 months). It previously went up 5x from August '17 to December '17 (5 months). There have obviously been plenty of 2x increases, and 50% drops over the past 5 years. In general, I think a lot of the drops tend to be swift, although often it will take some time for the bottom to be reached. On the other hand, at the end of week 1 of a massive uptick in price, we have generally not yet seen the local high. When this thread was opened, BTC was trading in the ~$31k range. I don't think it would have been crazy to say the price would go up 5x from the date the thread opened to when the contest ends. The contest is far from over. There are things happening in financial markets right now that make me believe that we will see a lot of volatility in the coming weeks. I would not be surprised to see bitcoin go up 2-3x from local lows, nor would I be surprised to see a massive drop in the price. The question remains however where the local low is going to be located. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on November 27, 2021, 10:25:34 PM The last time BTC went up 10x was from the March 2020 lows to the beginning of this year. It took about 9 months, but the March 2020 lows were only that low due to a crash that caused the price to decline (and quickly mostly recover) by around 50-60% in a matter of days. If you remove that few-day window when BTC was trading in the $3k range, it took almost two years for bitcoin to trade below $6k (may 2019) until it hit $60k (March 2021). I don't think bitcoin has gone down 90% from any peak in the last 5 years, but it has gone down by a lot. As mentioned, it went down from just under $9k to the mid $3k range in March 2020. It went down ~45% from May to June of this year. It went down around 55% from December '18 to February '19 (it bottomed out in December '18 being down ~85% from the previous peak). If you lower the threshold to going up 5x, bitcoin last did that from September '20 to February of this year (5 months). It previously went up 5x from August '17 to December '17 (5 months). There have obviously been plenty of 2x increases, and 50% drops over the past 5 years. In general, I think a lot of the drops tend to be swift, although often it will take some time for the bottom to be reached. On the other hand, at the end of week 1 of a massive uptick in price, we have generally not yet seen the local high. When this thread was opened, BTC was trading in the ~$31k range. I don't think it would have been crazy to say the price would go up 5x from the date the thread opened to when the contest ends. The contest is far from over. There are things happening in financial markets right now that make me believe that we will see a lot of volatility in the coming weeks. I would not be surprised to see bitcoin go up 2-3x from local lows, nor would I be surprised to see a massive drop in the price. The question remains however where the local low is going to be located. this contest is over 69420 on the 7th. And I will be smiling as I collect. Seriously i still think anyone from 40k to 80k can win. But lower or higher is a real long shot. I still am in striking range with my 70k, but not a real favorite. I guess 50k to 65k are more likely to win now that time is running down. to be clear DEC 7 2021 00.00 CET is Dec 6 2021 18.00 EST ? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on November 27, 2021, 11:40:34 PM We closing in on the DATE....
WHo's the favo ????? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mikeywith on November 28, 2021, 12:20:07 AM Let's get back to 10x.. since that is such a lovely number.. think about 10x from here and we would end up having BTC prices going from $55k-ish to $550k-ish.. and how long would be consider for that to be reasonable to play out? 1, 2 or 3 quarters? For me, 2 quarters seems doable... I hope you are joking, I was going to ask if you meant "years" and not "quarters", but then even that doesn't change much, because $550k BTC in 2 years is just ... wishful thinking, even the very generous S2F model is predicting 550k by Q2 of 2025, I am as pretty bullish on BTC I just think that having unrealistic and unsustainable predictions serves no purpose. We closing in on the DATE.... WHo's the favo ????? hmm Quote 224. $42,042 Hhampuz 225. $43,000 Globb0 (second part) 226. $43,210 o_e_l_e_o 227. $44,444 BTCLiz 228. $45,666 STT 229. $46,464 Icygreen Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 28, 2021, 05:15:23 AM The last time BTC went up 10x was from the March 2020 lows to the beginning of this year. It took about 9 months, but the March 2020 lows were only that low due to a crash that caused the price to decline (and quickly mostly recover) by around 50-60% in a matter of days. If you remove that few-day window when BTC was trading in the $3k range, it took almost two years for bitcoin to trade below $6k (may 2019) until it hit $60k (March 2021). More or less it could be fair to use $6k as a base, since we spent a decent amount of time bouncing around $6k... but it seems problematic to use $6k as a base for May of 2019 - because largely BTC prices were in the midst of a run during that time.. starting from round $4,200 on April 1, 2019.. passed through $6k on its way up to $13,800 and then corrected back down to $6k on at least a few more occasions... maybe we could also suggest that the summer 2020 passing through $6k could be a charitable read to bouncing off of $6k to get a 10x within about 11 months to a year-ish. I don't think bitcoin has gone down 90% from any peak in the last 5 years, but it has gone down by a lot. Either you are being blind or you are being disingenuous when you are making such non-representative claims. Look at the 19,666 December 2017 top, and then calculate the $3,122 bottom in December 2018. That gives you about a 84% correction, and even if we calculate again to the flashcrash bottom of $3,850 in March 2020, that still gets you down nearly to 80%.. so even if technically there is some correction to assert that no 90% bottom has been reached, it is just a bullshit point because you are failing/refusing to actually grapple with 84% and 80% spikes down.. and yeah that spike down in December 2018 lasted for at least 3.5 months (hovering between about $3,700 and $4,100 so surely in touch to continue to threaten breaking down rather than UP, even though by April 1, 2019 we did get a breaking up from about a $4,200 base at that time. As mentioned, it went down from just under $9k to the mid $3k range in March 2020. That is factually true.. but I don't know if such chosen numbers are representative of much of anything except for a short lived macro liquidity event. It went down ~45% from May to June of this year. I calculate about 56% from $64,895 to $28,600. and yeah, it threatened going down again for a couple of months through June and July because it did not really go up during that time and continued to hover in the lower $30ks. It went down around 55% from December '18 to February '19 (it bottomed out in December '18 being down ~85% from the previous peak). Ok... you do recognize the 85% correction from the peak. Great. If you lower the threshold to going up 5x, bitcoin last did that from September '20 to February of this year (5 months). It previously went up 5x from August '17 to December '17 (5 months). Fair enough. There have obviously been plenty of 2x increases, and 50% drops over the past 5 years. It does not help when you seem to be bouncing around all over the place, so your thesis seems to be getting lost, no? Is there a thesis to what you are saying? In general, I think a lot of the drops tend to be swift, although often it will take some time for the bottom to be reached. On the other hand, at the end of week 1 of a massive uptick in price, we have generally not yet seen the local high. When this thread was opened, BTC was trading in the ~$31k range. I don't think it would have been crazy to say the price would go up 5x from the date the thread opened to when the contest ends. Fair enough. The contest is far from over. There are things happening in financial markets right now that make me believe that we will see a lot of volatility in the coming weeks. I would not be surprised to see bitcoin go up 2-3x from local lows, nor would I be surprised to see a massive drop in the price. The question remains however where the local low is going to be located. Another fair enough point if you are attempting to focus on how low we might go from here... so yeah.. focusing on down from here (whether referring to the December 7 date) or even down from here by the end of the year.. could be an interesting point. There do seem to be some struggles in getting more and more down, but surely I would not be asserting that I have any clue when down is over... even though there is likely support in the lower $50ks.. and support in the $46ks and then support in the lower $30ks.. from there who knows? It had seemed pretty certain that our $28,600 bottom was in once we had gone above $46k in early August 2021...and even if sub $40k was briefly visited it had seemed that odds were pretty damned decent that our $28,600 bottom was in... so who is to say if there is much of any chance of getting down to challenging such bottom again, which might end up causing the end of this particular bullrun.. and I would not rule out the end of this particular bullrun even if the odds of such seem to be in the minority at the moment.. perhaps less than 40%-ish.. Let's get back to 10x.. since that is such a lovely number.. think about 10x from here and we would end up having BTC prices going from $55k-ish to $550k-ish.. and how long would be consider for that to be reasonable to play out? 1, 2 or 3 quarters? For me, 2 quarters seems doable... I hope you are joking, I was going to ask if you meant "years" and not "quarters", but then even that doesn't change much, because $550k BTC in 2 years is just ... wishful thinking, even the very generous S2F model is predicting 550k by Q2 of 2025, I am as pretty bullish on BTC I just think that having unrealistic and unsustainable predictions serves no purpose. I am not joking, and I think that I am being realistic. My name is not PlanB, either.. even though I do lend considerable credence to his outlines. Seems that I am not talking about probable; I was referring to doable.. kind of like potential best-case scenarios. I had already provided you links to my assignment of probabilities for timing and also for quantities of UPpity. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg58487747#msg58487747) (Edit: whoops. Those links that I provided earlier were responding to the first section of my response to BlackHatCoiner rather than to you specifically mikeywith). I am not sure if I should tweak the below numbers, but these were my numbers on October 30. I cannot really see any subsequent developments to cause me to change my numbers beyond perhaps .5% to 1% here or there.. I am not sure.. I would have to go through them with some kind of detailed attempts at pondering to consider if any of them have changed much if any. above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds $800k to $1.5 million - nearly most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds $650k to $800k - aggressively bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds $450k to $650k - Optimistically highly bullish - about 7.75% odds $200k to $450k - Moderately highly bullish - about 15.5% odds $100k to $200k - mediocre bullish - about 16.5% odds $80k to $100k - relatively bearish (not too bullish) - about 6% odds $67k to $80k - the remainder of deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 4.5% odds down from here ($67k as the top) - most bearish - but possible - about 42.5% odds If you add up my numbers you will see that I have odds of supra $650k for this cycle at about 7.25%... so maybe odds for supra $550k would not be much more than 10%-ish. I discuss how I got some of these numbers (surely partly just the best I can do based on what I think to be possible and attempts at fair assignments of odds). I don't see how my numbers are fantasy or unrealistic or any of the claims that you are attempting to put me in, even if you would likely assign those numbers/probabilities different than me. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on November 28, 2021, 09:14:55 PM We closing in on the DATE.... WHo's the favo ????? we are at 55k so -15 to +15 is 40k to 70k looks to be most likely range. I will narrow it a bit later this week. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on November 29, 2021, 04:57:04 AM for an example if we get to 100k anytime before April of next year, we are likely going to crash fast and hard, I disagree and your own chart suggests otherwise too!Because if you are talking about a repeating pattern then you should see the whole thing and where in that pattern we are. In this statement you seem to be only focusing on the "yellow" part. However, the pattern (4-year cycle or whatever you want to call it) suggests that we at the end of the trend and need that bubble (red part) to finish the whole cycle. That means reaching $100k should only be the beginning of more bigger rises not a "crash". And if you think the pattern is broken and after reaching $100k before April we are going to crash hard, then there is no reason to even look at this chart anymore! P.S. The thing I took away from this chart is my own speculation that by the end of the year or first quarter of the next year if the bubble forms it will be at $400k (top of the red part like 2017 and 2013). ::) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: tertius993 on November 29, 2021, 11:14:27 AM If you look at the prior halvings and the price performance post the halving you get:
First halving: Nov 2012 Price at halving: $12.00 Subsequent High: Nov 2013 Price at high: $1,242 (this is a 103x increase over the price at the halving) Time from halving to high: 12 months Second Halving: July 2016 Price at halving: $652.00 Subsequent High: Dec 2017 Price at high: $19,700 (this is a 30x increase and is approximately 1/3 the relative increase seen at the first halving) Time from halving to high: 17 months (this is approximately 1.4x as long as after the first halving) Third halving: May 2020 Price at halving: $8,740 Projecting forward, and using the 1/3 the previous increase and 1.4x the time taken we get: Forecast high: $77,000 (an 8x increase, i.e. one-third of the relative increase after the second halving) Date of high: May 2022 (24 months after the halving, or 1.4x the time taken after the second halving) We can see (from just two data points of course) that it is taking longer to get from the halving to the subsequent high, and the relative price increase is reducing. I think this is logical given that the relative impact of each halving is smaller than the prior ones (as a greater proportion of the total supply has already been mined at each halving). Overlaying this onto mikeywith's chart we get: https://i.ibb.co/8z6vBXm/BTC-speculation-3rd-Halving.png Red vertical lines are halving dates; green vertical lines are subsequent highs. Blue text and lines are "speculative forecasts". Personally I don't think you can sensibly extrapolate from just two data points, so the actual numbers/dates are bound to be wrong but thought it was fun to do. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mikeywith on November 29, 2021, 09:23:44 PM for an example if we get to 100k anytime before April of next year, we are likely going to crash fast and hard, I disagree and your own chart suggests otherwise too!Because if you are talking about a repeating pattern then you should see the whole thing and where in that pattern we are. In this statement you seem to be only focusing on the "yellow" part. However, the pattern (4-year cycle or whatever you want to call it) suggests that we at the end of the trend and need that bubble (red part) to finish the whole cycle. That means reaching $100k should only be the beginning of more bigger rises not a "crash". You must be so bullish that you didn't notice that we often crash from yellow than actually go red :D. https://i.ibb.co/dmf31jR/Crash.png But you are not wrong, of course, there is always a chance we go to the red zone after touching the yellow, but the point i was trying to make is that the longer we take to get to 100k the more likely we can sustain those prices, if we go to 100k in in June of 2022, we will still be in the green, far from the heat, if we do that earlier, then we enter a danger zone, and there is no guarantee that entering yellow takes us to red, This also has to do with wether you really think the 4 year cycle is still a thing or not, also anyone who thinks the length of this cycle has to follow the previous one should already be aware that we are already taking longer than all previous cycles, which means the 69k was actually the top of the cycle as far as "length is concerned" The way I see is that each cycles takes a lot longer to top than the previous one, if we take the last cycle length into account we have actually just passed it ( a few days ago), which means road to the end of the cycle is still pretty much a long one, so I don't agree with " we at the end of the trend and need that bubble", I think we still need AT LEAST 6-8 months to end this cycle, so when we get to that yellow area again, chances are we get a another correction rather than a follow through. Quote P.S. The thing I took away from this chart is my own speculation that by the end of the year or first quarter of the next year if the bubble forms it will be at $400k (top of the red part like 2017 and 2013). Roll Eyes Sorry to tell you that the chart dimensions are a bit off in the image, the top of the red only comes at 400k in around mid June 2022, I would still take the top of this channel with a grain of salt tho, this model will have to break at one point the small number of data points in it, but hey BTC does what BTC does, you may never know. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on November 30, 2021, 01:42:44 AM for an example if we get to 100k anytime before April of next year, we are likely going to crash fast and hard, I disagree and your own chart suggests otherwise too!Because if you are talking about a repeating pattern then you should see the whole thing and where in that pattern we are. In this statement you seem to be only focusing on the "yellow" part. However, the pattern (4-year cycle or whatever you want to call it) suggests that we at the end of the trend and need that bubble (red part) to finish the whole cycle. That means reaching $100k should only be the beginning of more bigger rises not a "crash". You must be so bullish that you didn't notice that we often crash from yellow than actually go red :D. https://i.ibb.co/dmf31jR/Crash.png But you are not wrong, of course, there is always a chance we go to the red zone after touching the yellow, but the point i was trying to make is that the longer we take to get to 100k the more likely we can sustain those prices, if we go to 100k in in June of 2022, we will still be in the green, far from the heat, if we do that earlier, then we enter a danger zone, and there is no guarantee that entering yellow takes us to red, This also has to do with wether you really think the 4 year cycle is still a thing or not, also anyone who thinks the length of this cycle has to follow the previous one should already be aware that we are already taking longer than all previous cycles, which means the 69k was actually the top of the cycle as far as "length is concerned" The way I see is that each cycles takes a lot longer to top than the previous one, if we take the last cycle length into account we have actually just passed it ( a few days ago), which means road to the end of the cycle is still pretty much a long one, so I don't agree with " we at the end of the trend and need that bubble", I think we still need AT LEAST 6-8 months to end this cycle, so when we get to that yellow area again, chances are we get a another correction rather than a follow through. Quote P.S. The thing I took away from this chart is my own speculation that by the end of the year or first quarter of the next year if the bubble forms it will be at $400k (top of the red part like 2017 and 2013). Roll Eyes Sorry to tell you that the chart dimensions are a bit off in the image, the top of the red only comes at 400k in around mid June 2022, I would still take the top of this channel with a grain of salt tho, this model will have to break at one point the small number of data points in it, but hey BTC does what BTC does, you may never know. You are correct to the extent that you might be suggesting that bitcoin is not likely to be too much on any kind of exact schedule... but it also seems that pooya87 criticism of your assessment of the model is quite on point regarding that you seem to be ignoring what is in the actual chart and asserting what you believe to be plausible in that BTC prices frequently get stuck at various points of the yellow.. and sure that seems to be true, except when it is not... which is shown in the chart to have had at least happened twice in the past 8 years and in 4-year increments - which is also implying that we are in such a four-year place once again in which we could have a blow off top again.. which again causes BTC prices to go into the red again. Of course, any of us should be able to agree with you that we are not guaranteed to experience any kind of blow off top merely because it happened in 4-year increments in the past, but your presuming that it is not going to happen.. just because and then listing some opinions of yours that the 4-year cycles are over blah blah blah.. seems to be just proclaiming that you believe that from here on out there are going to be limits in UPpity (even though bitcoin has not been too good at following such limitations historically.. but sure.. this time is different.. this time is different). And, even your assertion that the red area becomes less likely when it is delayed in happening comes off as a bit of a made-up wish.. that stretches logic or even bitcoin's own historical patterns.. merely because you proclaim such limits. Again, I am not asserting that going into the red is anywhere guaranteed, but there is also a BTC price dynamic that likely exists out there between the waring sides. Historically, it seems that we have tended to experience blow-off tops in bitcoin because it seems to be that the bearwhales are constantly trying to keep BTC prices down as low as they can and for as long as they can, and at some point they can no longer keep king daddy down, so whether that will result in BTC prices going into the red is still to be seen.. whether our top is already in at $69k or whether we get something sub-$100k, something between $100k and $400k or something supra $400k is also to be seen. If you look at my assignment of probabilities (including in this posts (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg58553679#msg58553679), and links too), I am not assigning really high probabilities to supra $200k scenarios (something like 30%), but I am also NOT going to act like those supra $200k scenarios are nearly off limits or that down scenarios have overly high likelihoods when they don't seem to.. and even I am assigning higher than 50% odds that our top is no greater than $100k, yet one of your errors (if it is only one?) seems to be that you are giving hardly any odds to supra $100k scenarios... and you have pretty decently high focuses on Down.. (prepared for down, no?) so hopefully you (and some other DOWNity scenario prognosticators/believers/wisheners) are not failing/refusing to adequately and/or sufficiently prepare for UP in the event that some of those less likely UP scenarios end up happening.. just like those less likely scenarios ended up happening in 2013, in 2017, and surely a variety of other times in bitcoin's history. We have witnessed a lot of either overly prepared for down and/or insufficiently prepared for UP peeps in bitcoin's history.. and sure some of you (or those peeps) are going to continue to make such mistakes.. and in this time around there seems to be some benefits to be prepared for outrageous including something as high as $1.5million in this cycle.. so yeah, even though I place only about a .5% chance of such $1.5 million scenario happening, it still feels like the right thing, the prudent thing, the practical thing, to do to be prepared.. just in case. Is this the right time to gloat? or not yet? with the HFSP mantra? :D :D :D :D By the way..... I am not even asserting that folks should not be prepared for down as well.. as long as they are also prepared for UP, including some of the outrageous UP scenarios (that may well not happen). Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: pooya87 on November 30, 2021, 04:37:12 AM You must be so bullish that you didn't notice that we often crash from yellow than actually go red :D. I'm always bullish on bitcoin but the part I can't agree with is the number of times it goes red. After multiple tries it always breaks out, and it has already tried it enough times. Besides the other issue I see with your speculation is the timeframe. You are saying that about 60% rise in 5 months would lead to a "hard crash" whereas in reality such rises are considered small and very slow. For comparison in the past 5 months price has gone up 146% and that too was slow. It also didn't end up with "hard crash" it just had a 23% correction (I don't consider anything below 30% a crash). Quote the longer we take to get to 100k the more likely we can sustain those prices, I completely agree. But this is one of those rules that doesn't necessarily have a correct opposite. Meaning price doesn't necessarily have to crash if $100k was reached much quicker. Quote This also has to do with wether you really think the 4 year cycle is still a thing or not, also anyone who thinks the length of this cycle has to follow the previous one should already be aware that we are already taking longer than all previous cycles, which means the 69k was actually the top of the cycle as far as "length is concerned" I believe that the cycle is still happening, although I wish it didn't. But I don't think it should be the exact copy of the previous cycles. There is a lot of factors that affects the market and can increase or decrease the length or the size of the final bubble. For now we are only 12 days longer the previous cycle (from 2015-01-14 to 2017-12-17 is 1069 days and 2018-12-15 + 1069 is 2021-12-18) which is not a lot but a lot smaller in size ($152 to $19666 vs $3100 to $69000 which is 13000% vs 2100%).I also believe that at some point this trend will be broken and we stop seeing this kind of long bull-bubble-bear trinity and instead see longer but slower bull markets with small quick corrections instead of a huge -80% crashes that lasts a year. I don't know if this year marked the last cycle or not but 10% rise a month with a lot of small corrections for the next 6 months to reach $100k (as you suggested) would be a good indication of it. The fact that we are still 10900% behind than previous cycle could be another indication. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 02, 2021, 03:52:50 AM dec 7 is coming who will be the winner. we are at 56430 right now.
Quote ... 223. $40,975 Coin-1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57339532#msg57339532) 224. $42,042 Hhampuz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326404#msg57326404) 225. $43,000 Globb0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405873#msg57405873) (second part (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57414038#msg57414038)) 226. $43,210 o_e_l_e_o (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57327741#msg57327741) 227. $44,444 BTCLiz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325687#msg57325687) 228. $45,666 STT (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57341142#msg57341142) 229. $46,464 Icygreen (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57349651#msg57349651) 230. $47,500 goldkingcoiner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57333260#msg57333260) 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331708#msg57331708) 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) 245. $63,000 bct_ail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420530#msg57420530) 246. $64,935 xhomerx10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411348#msg57411348) 247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) 248. $66,666 Hueristic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57401039#msg57401039) 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) ... please note chart was made by LoyceV not me. But the 40-70 slot range is looking good with about 5-6 days left Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on December 02, 2021, 09:53:46 AM ---snipped--- The more the adoption the less the volatility, you are perfectly accurate about this. dec 7 is coming who will be the winner. we are at 56430 right now. The support is still at a price above $50000, the last time I checked, bitcoin price plummeted to $53700. $60000 resistance is also very strong. My prediction may not be accurate as no one is even accurate if to predict the price of bitcoin in just short term, I am predicting the winner will be within $50000 to $ 60000 price range.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 02, 2021, 12:41:03 PM ---snipped--- The more the adoption the less the volatility, you are perfectly accurate about this. dec 7 is coming who will be the winner. we are at 56430 right now. The support is still at a price above $50000, the last time I checked, bitcoin price plummeted to $53700. $60000 resistance is also very strong. My prediction may not be accurate as no one is even accurate if to predict the price of bitcoin in just short term, I am predicting the winner will be within $50000 to $ 60000 price range.yeah you could be correct. I am thinking under 50 is less likely than over 60 but the 50-60 range may hold the winner. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on December 02, 2021, 10:05:08 PM Few days left
Watching closely Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 03, 2021, 02:14:43 AM Few days left Watching closely It is exciting as my 70k is at least still possible. You ran a fun game with a very generous prize. Thanks again. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on December 03, 2021, 09:51:27 AM dec 7 is coming who will be the winner. we are at 56430 right now. Quote ... 223. $40,975 Coin-1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57339532#msg57339532) 224. $42,042 Hhampuz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326404#msg57326404) 225. $43,000 Globb0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405873#msg57405873) (second part (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57414038#msg57414038)) 226. $43,210 o_e_l_e_o (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57327741#msg57327741) 227. $44,444 BTCLiz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325687#msg57325687) 228. $45,666 STT (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57341142#msg57341142) 229. $46,464 Icygreen (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57349651#msg57349651) 230. $47,500 goldkingcoiner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57333260#msg57333260) 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331708#msg57331708) 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) 245. $63,000 bct_ail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420530#msg57420530) 246. $64,935 xhomerx10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411348#msg57411348) 247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) 248. $66,666 Hueristic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57401039#msg57401039) 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) ... please note chart was made by LoyceV not me. But the 40-70 slot range is looking good with about 5-6 days left I believe Lafu, Kylapoiss, and Altryist. I hope it’s not Icygreen or STT, but a mini-crash from $60,000 to $45,000 is never extremely hard to see if you ask me. Especially after April crash, which was just somewhere in the middle of the bull cycle. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 03, 2021, 04:27:39 PM dec 7 is coming who will be the winner. we are at 56430 right now. Quote ... 223. $40,975 Coin-1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57339532#msg57339532) 224. $42,042 Hhampuz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57326404#msg57326404) 225. $43,000 Globb0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405873#msg57405873) (second part (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57414038#msg57414038)) 226. $43,210 o_e_l_e_o (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57327741#msg57327741) 227. $44,444 BTCLiz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325687#msg57325687) 228. $45,666 STT (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57341142#msg57341142) 229. $46,464 Icygreen (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57349651#msg57349651) 230. $47,500 goldkingcoiner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57333260#msg57333260) 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331708#msg57331708) 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) 237. $54,545 mole0815 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57336840#msg57336840) 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) 239. $55,700 Lafu (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325692#msg57325692) 240. $57,777 Kylapoiss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329711#msg57329711) 241. $58,683 Altryist (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57375032#msg57375032) 242. $60,000 vapourminer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011) 245. $63,000 bct_ail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57420530#msg57420530) 246. $64,935 xhomerx10 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57411348#msg57411348) 247. $65,430 alegotardo (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337777#msg57337777) 248. $66,666 Hueristic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57401039#msg57401039) 249. $68,655 tweetious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325469#msg57325469) 250. $70,000 philipma1957 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325369#msg57325369) ... please note chart was made by LoyceV not me. But the 40-70 slot range is looking good with about 5-6 days left I believe Lafu, Kylapoiss, and Altryist. I hope it’s not Icygreen or STT, but a mini-crash from $60,000 to $45,000 is never extremely hard to see if you ask me. Especially after April crash, which was just somewhere in the middle of the bull cycle. If I do not win at 70k or even 69420 I hope mikeywith wins. 238. $54,666 mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325803#msg57325803) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on December 04, 2021, 06:35:38 AM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak. Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH. Oh my!!! Holy shit!!! Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations? I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up.. 8) I told you, ser. We should never underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility. We saw it during April, and I believe another retest back to $35,000 is currently possible, or is that just in “the realm of extreme possibilites”? Plus who crashed the market, and should we prepare for jeers from proudhon and sgbett again? Hahaha! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on December 04, 2021, 07:14:16 AM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak. Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH. Oh my!!! Holy shit!!! Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations? I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up.. 8) I told you, ser. We should never underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility. We saw it during April, and I believe another retest back to $35,000 is currently possible, or is that just in “the realm of extreme possibilites”? Plus who crashed the market, and should we prepare for jeers from proudhon and sgbett again? Hahaha! Gloating is not becoming of a gentleman wannabe. Oh wait. Regarding your retest of $35k proposition, hopefully you are not failing or refusing to buy or disinclined to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP based on such a seeming hope that may or may not happen. I am not sure if I need to repeat that one of the BIGGEST errors in respect to bitcoin is failure/refusal to adequately and sufficiently prepare for UP.. so you can do all you like to prepare, hope or even wait for down, and if you get too greedy then you may well be in a much worse position than to just buy on a regular basis or to buy on the dip that you have in front of you rather than waiting for more dip. Another thing is still having some fiat available.. just in case there is more down. I am not against attempting to prepare for down.. because surely many of us feel better to be able to buy some BTC on the way down rather than running out of money.. so surely there is that angle that exists as well... a kind of balancing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP while at the same time maintaining some kind of a system to buy on dips on the way down while not running out of money.. not an easy thing to strike such balance and seems to not be very good thing to make fun of people who may have already run out of money to pick up some more BTC (surely there are some of those guys in existence as well). Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on December 04, 2021, 09:18:02 AM Another thing is still having some fiat available.. just in case there is more down. I am not against attempting to prepare for down.. because surely many of us feel better to be able to buy some BTC on the way down rather than running out of money.. so surely there is that angle that exists as well... a kind of balancing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP while at the same time maintaining some kind of a system to buy on dips on the way down while not running out of money.. not an easy thing to strike such balance and seems to not be very good thing to make fun of people who may have already run out of money to pick up some more BTC (surely there are some of those guys in existence as well). Yep. And then there are some guys I'm sure (I would like to say I'm one of those) not earning income in fiat -- the balance feels even harder to strike. Feels nice to be sending out invoices and getting paid when price is down, but since still need to sell to pay those damn bills, the temptation for me is to try and sell even less than I need to, to try and hold on as much as possible to the bonus BTC, and see how long more I can delay the bills -- but if price goes down even more, then I'm forced to sell even more when deadlines are up, losing out on the bargain BTC. (I hope that makes sense). Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on December 04, 2021, 10:12:11 AM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak. Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH. Oh my!!! Holy shit!!! Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations? I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up.. 8) I told you, ser. We should never underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility. We saw it during April, and I believe another retest back to $35,000 is currently possible, or is that just in “the realm of extreme possibilites”? Plus who crashed the market, and should we prepare for jeers from proudhon and sgbett again? Hahaha! Gloating is not becoming of a gentleman wannabe. Oh wait. I’m merely emphasizing that we shouldn’t underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility, especially after your reaction when I posted that a mini-crash of 30% was still very possible. Quote Regarding your retest of $35k proposition, hopefully you are not failing or refusing to buy or disinclined to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP based on such a seeming hope that may or may not happen. I am not sure if I need to repeat that one of the BIGGEST errors in respect to bitcoin is failure/refusal to adequately and sufficiently prepare for UP.. so you can do all you like to prepare, hope or even wait for down, and if you get too greedy then you may well be in a much worse position than to just buy on a regular basis or to buy on the dip that you have in front of you rather than waiting for more dip. Another thing is still having some fiat available.. just in case there is more down. I am not against attempting to prepare for down.. because surely many of us feel better to be able to buy some BTC on the way down rather than running out of money.. so surely there is that angle that exists as well... a kind of balancing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP while at the same time maintaining some kind of a system to buy on dips on the way down while not running out of money.. not an easy thing to strike such balance and seems to not be very good thing to make fun of people who may have already run out of money to pick up some more BTC (surely there are some of those guys in existence as well). I’m a pleb. I buy the DIP with what I have, which is not much after expenses, and I need to keep some fiat in my bank account. But majority of my savings buys were made during 2018 and 2019. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: aoluain on December 04, 2021, 10:20:27 AM ^
Well PlanB's expected $10,000 daily candle goes a way to that 30% pull back. https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1456581634497581059?t=IASsB520G6UJLTXfdlNPaw&s=19 It was said there were way to many leveraged long trades in the market and they would have to be liquidated before the market would rise. Bit of a domino effect last night with a lot of liquidation, $1.2billion. I wonder if the runway is clear for takeoff now? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on December 04, 2021, 10:35:49 AM I’m merely emphasizing that we shouldn’t underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility So you're saying I can still win? :PWell, at least the last days of the "Summer dip" are exciting. It was said there were way to many leveraged long trades in the market and they would I saw much higher numbers:have to be liquidated before the market would rise. Bit of a domino effect last night with a lot of liquidation, $1.2billion. https://i.ibb.co/1nxyryJ/1.png (https://ibb.co/59Vprpx) Honestly, I am gloating about these long leverage liquidations. Am I a bad person? May be... But these morons will never learn from their mistakes until they lose all their money. I am not sure about the exact numbers, coinglass shows much less, but they don't include CME, bakkt and others, which is rather strange. They show 1B liquidations, but on blockchainwhispers I see that only on Binance 1B longs were closed/liquidated. Since Binance is the main price maker, these longs have been a huge problem each time the price started moving up. Obviously, too many monkeys had been trying to squeeze some profit into the eye of a needle. And this is the second big long liquidation massacre this year with almost each day losing >100 mil. Man, this is worse than the chances in a Las Vegas casino! I just can't help gloating ;D ;D ;D And buying of course. :DTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: icopress on December 04, 2021, 11:24:48 AM So you're saying I can still win? :P Have you forgotten what the guys in the other thread told you? Your streak of failures has already ended, since it cannot be that the same thing lasts 5 months in a row. Therefore, you need to either go to the casino on December 21, or cross your fingers and look with big eyes at the vertical green candle.So it's just people speculating on exchanges that caused all this? I'm okay with that :) Mempool (https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,24h,weight) isn't even full, which tells me not too many people are panic-depositing to sell their HOLDings. Definitely ... and although I woke up today with bated breath, I do not exclude that today's collapse will be followed by another one.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: PrimeNumber7 on December 04, 2021, 01:07:21 PM this contest is over 69420 on the 7th. And I will be smiling as I collect. The price has fallen to ~47k with a low of ~$41k. There is one more day in which traditional financial markets are open. Seriously i still think anyone from 40k to 80k can win. I would say it is most likely that the price will end somewhere in the range of $34.8k to $54.05k (+- 15% from the local low and current price). I don't think bitcoin has gone down 90% from any peak in the last 5 years, but it has gone down by a lot. Either you are being blind or you are being disingenuous when you are making such non-representative claims. If you lower the threshold to going up 5x, bitcoin last did that from September '20 to February of this year (5 months). It previously went up 5x from August '17 to December '17 (5 months). Fair enough. There have obviously been plenty of 2x increases, and 50% drops over the past 5 years. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on December 04, 2021, 05:00:06 PM Another thing is still having some fiat available.. just in case there is more down. I am not against attempting to prepare for down.. because surely many of us feel better to be able to buy some BTC on the way down rather than running out of money.. so surely there is that angle that exists as well... a kind of balancing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP while at the same time maintaining some kind of a system to buy on dips on the way down while not running out of money.. not an easy thing to strike such balance and seems to not be very good thing to make fun of people who may have already run out of money to pick up some more BTC (surely there are some of those guys in existence as well). Yep. And then there are some guys I'm sure (I would like to say I'm one of those) not earning income in fiat -- the balance feels even harder to strike. Feels nice to be sending out invoices and getting paid when price is down, but since still need to sell to pay those damn bills, the temptation for me is to try and sell even less than I need to, to try and hold on as much as possible to the bonus BTC, and see how long more I can delay the bills -- but if price goes down even more, then I'm forced to sell even more when deadlines are up, losing out on the bargain BTC. (I hope that makes sense). yes...it makes sense, and surely each of our situations are going to be different, so we have to be careful to NOT be engaging in too much gambling with our cashflow - especially if we have the income coming in through BTC... and there may well be some need to convert regularly, but then if you (which is any of us) end up in a place where we anticipated a downturn of Z amount but it ends up being a draw down of Z x2 or x3 or some way greater amount and then it ends up being draw down that we anticipate to last 6 months and it ends up lasting 2 years, we might really screw ourselves up...so in some sense we have to attempt to be overly conservative.. and to prepare for worse cases than we even expect to happen... I know that these things can well be way easier said than done, and even I have been caught with less cash than I needed and having to sell some BTC at times that were not completely of my own choosing.. just to cover some expenses that I had known to be coming but they ended up being more than expected, came all at once and came right when the BTC price crashed nearly 2x lower than expected.. referring to the November 2018 crash from $6k to $3k. When I was 18 years old, I could project my cashflow 6 months in advance, and that would tend to be ok.. because my finances were not very complicated, but the more complicated my cashflow became, the more that I had to attempt to project ahead and for sure the cashflow of the shorter term periods of 1-3 months were more immediate than the further out cashflow projections that can be more loosey goosey... In recent times, I have tended to project my cashflows 2 years in advance with the most immediate cashflow projections or 1-3 months more strict and the further out more general, and frequently I can see if I spend some extra money now, there can be significant and meaningful ramifications on my cashflow 6 months or more in advance. I supposed that what I am suggesting is that each of us likely have to keep more value in cash than we would have wanted to in order to make sure that we are prepared for extreme situations.. and yes, that can kind of suck because many of us are going to feel that our cash might NOT be working for us.. but if we try to keep too much value in bitcoin, we could really end up screwing ourselves out of bitcoin if we end up going through BTC overshoots in terms of price and time that go way beyond our expectations and we have failed/refused to adequately prepare... so yeah, even shaving off 1-3% extra of your BTC stash could be painful when done at an inopportune time (but shaving off 10% or 20% or more could be quite devastating due to lack of adequate preparations because maybe we got too greedy in our trying to keep our BTC/money working but we end up being way overly allocated.. and not very realistic). I’m merely emphasizing that we shouldn’t underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility, especially after your reaction when I posted that a mini-crash of 30% was still very possible. I doubt that any of us who have been in bitcoin for a while are underestimating bitcoin's volatility... so your desire to project some kind of a gotcha or "I am smarter than anyone else because I knew what was going to happen" blah blah blah.. seems a bit much.. but hey.. you do you... For sure, you are not the only person who likes to do those kinds of things. I’m a pleb. I buy the DIP with what I have, which is not much after expenses, and I need to keep some fiat in my bank account. But majority of my savings buys were made during 2018 and 2019. Of course, the more of a BTC stash that you have created, the more that you can have various flexibilities, and sometimes it will be pretty clear that there is a goal to keep stacking sats because the stash is not large enough and for sure, earlier in time does cause some abilities to say that it is not likely that we will be moving back to those prices... so in 2018/2019 BTC prices bounced around between $3k and $20k but spent quite a bit of time below $10k.. so there surely can be some confidence that it is NOT too likely that any of us is goin got be able to acquire BTC for those kinds of low prices anymore.. it's not 100% sure, but there still can be quite a bit of confidence.. including using the 104-week (2 years) or the 208-week (4 years) moving average to attempt to figure out the most extreme of lows that might happen and may well not be sustainable if reached and for those are $28k and $18k for the 104-week moving average and the 208-week moving average respectively. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on December 04, 2021, 06:01:34 PM Gloating is not becoming of a gentleman wannabe. Speaking of which, this is the one year anniversary of gentlemand's vacation. #Holders Unaffected Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: STT on December 05, 2021, 12:10:00 AM Only good thing about recent action is that I can at least say my aim wasnt completely off, BTC does have this habit of returning to mean. Its passed through my guess and recovered back up some and might continue to do so, the probability of it rolling right upto my doorstep on the precise day for this thread is low but I was in the rough region anyhow :p 45603 is a Fib level I have drawn in and though we traded lower it was brief only and think this level is the point to watch. I doubt I have drawn the graph exactly but the 50 week average is slow enough to be predictable in this area at this time.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 06, 2021, 12:15:03 AM Only good thing about recent action is that I can at least say my aim wasnt completely off, BTC does have this habit of returning to mean. Its passed through my guess and recovered back up some and might continue to do so, the probability of it rolling right upto my doorstep on the precise day for this thread is low but I was in the rough region anyhow :p 45603 is a Fib level I have drawn in and though we traded lower it was brief only and think this level is the point to watch. I doubt I have drawn the graph exactly but the 50 week average is slow enough to be predictable in this area at this time. well i like your chances better then mine ;D you did well. what are about 24 hours away ? 6 pm eastern standard the 6th is the same as 12 midnight the 7th or am i an hour off? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: JayJuanGee on December 06, 2021, 03:36:00 AM Only good thing about recent action is that I can at least say my aim wasnt completely off, BTC does have this habit of returning to mean. Its passed through my guess and recovered back up some and might continue to do so, the probability of it rolling right upto my doorstep on the precise day for this thread is low but I was in the rough region anyhow :p 45603 is a Fib level I have drawn in and though we traded lower it was brief only and think this level is the point to watch. I doubt I have drawn the graph exactly but the 50 week average is slow enough to be predictable in this area at this time. well i like your chances better then mine ;D you did well. what are about 24 hours away ? 6 pm eastern standard the 6th is the same as 12 midnight the 7th or am i an hour off? I think that if you are talking about the translation of midnight (UTC) to eastern time, then you would be talking about 7pm on the 6th, not 6pm, which is about 20.5 hours away as I type this post.... NOT much time left, as you mentioned.. and sure it is a bit of a strange time to have the contest end.. ... in terms of about 24 hours after the close of this week's weekly candle.. but hey, whatever.. any day is going to have its potential particularities.. and sometimes we will see a lot of price movement right after (or even leading up to) the close of a weekly candle.. but nothing BIG so far.,. and gosh $20k movement in less than 24 hours would be something of interest.. if it were to happen.. not impossible.. but surely would be amazing, and I doubt anyone who holds much of any BTC would complain if you were to win under those kinds of crazy-ass outrageous and so far unprecedented circumstances. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 06, 2021, 03:49:40 AM Only good thing about recent action is that I can at least say my aim wasnt completely off, BTC does have this habit of returning to mean. Its passed through my guess and recovered back up some and might continue to do so, the probability of it rolling right upto my doorstep on the precise day for this thread is low but I was in the rough region anyhow :p 45603 is a Fib level I have drawn in and though we traded lower it was brief only and think this level is the point to watch. I doubt I have drawn the graph exactly but the 50 week average is slow enough to be predictable in this area at this time. well i like your chances better then mine ;D you did well. what are about 24 hours away ? 6 pm eastern standard the 6th is the same as 12 midnight the 7th or am i an hour off? I think that if you are talking about the translation of midnight (UTC) to eastern time, then you would be talking about 7pm on the 6th, not 6pm, which is about 20.5 hours away as I type this post.... NOT much time left, as you mentioned.. and sure it is a bit of a strange time to have the contest end.. ... in terms of about 24 hours after the close of this week's weekly candle.. but hey, whatever.. any day is going to have its potential particularities.. and sometimes we will see a lot of price movement right after (or even leading up to) the close of a weekly candle.. but nothing BIG so far.,. and gosh $20k movement in less than 24 hours would be something of interest.. if it were to happen.. not impossible.. but surely would be amazing, and I doubt anyone who holds much of any BTC would complain if you were to win under those kinds of crazy-ass outrageous and so far unprecedented circumstances. I always get a bit confused when daylight savings kicks in never sure how other places count or dont count it and if it applies to the time zone or the country in the time zone. I suspect the country in the time zone can say fuck it but the time zone stays the same. well 49 k last I looked DdmrDdmr has 48999 Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: vapourminer on December 06, 2021, 01:01:26 PM what are about 24 hours away ? 6 pm eastern standard the 6th is the same as 12 midnight the 7th or am i an hour off? [...] well 49 k last I looked DdmrDdmr has 48999 lol you and i (60k/70k) were in the running for a fair spell. felt good. then rug pull lmao only took a couple hours to knock us out of the running (well pretty much anyway). el duderino these giveaways never cease to be nail bitters. thanks again for running them! Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: sgbett on December 06, 2021, 02:12:15 PM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak. Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH. Oh my!!! Holy shit!!! Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations? I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up.. 8) I told you, ser. We should never underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility. We saw it during April, and I believe another retest back to $35,000 is currently possible, or is that just in “the realm of extreme possibilites”? Plus who crashed the market, and should we prepare for jeers from proudhon and sgbett again? Hahaha! There will be no jeering on my watch. I think you misunderstand me, I have a conscience. When BTC collapses the people that get hurt will be the many bag holding retail investors that were deceived. Which vastly outnumbers those with malicious intent to deceive who will likely walk way with a stack of profit. It happens all the time on Wall St. but BTC is different right? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 06, 2021, 02:15:44 PM Well my 70k is dead but I am still buying $50 a day in BTC in addition to my mining. To the winner whomever it is good luck. At op thanks again. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: sgbett on December 06, 2021, 02:18:53 PM Hey sgbett your post is simple trolling and does not belong here. Well my 70k is dead but I am still buying $50 a day in BTC in addition to my mining. To the winner whomever it is good luck. At op thanks again. No its not, I'm defending accusations from several others in this thread. Do I have a right to reply? Your post implies that I do not, and the subtext is you think it should be removed. Edit: Oh, nice ninja edit. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on December 06, 2021, 07:25:54 PM When BTC collapses the people that get hurt will be the many bag holding retail investors that were deceived. Which vastly outnumbers those with malicious intent to deceive who will likely walk way with a stack of profit. The people that get hurts are people that are losing and sell their bitcoin holding all because the price is decreasing. But the people that are having rest of mind and not selling and happy that some people are waiting to buy the dip will later be happy after bitcoin price increase or later reach all-time-high again. So, it depends on how you are thinking about it.No its not, I'm defending accusations from several others in this thread. Do I have a right to reply? Your post implies that I do not, and the subtext is you think it should be removed. Never mind this. I hardly see coherence in your recent two posts and also your posts are not in accordance to this thread. This thread is about price prediction, not about whales, retail investors or price manipulation.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on December 06, 2021, 08:22:02 PM Tomo we will know
Loyce will hopefully announce the winner fast :) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: BlackHatCoiner on December 06, 2021, 09:05:48 PM https://blackhatcoiner.com/summerdip/?price=true (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5366056.0)
https://c.tenor.com/NNp_ehNBMEoAAAAM/excited-so.gif Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: MoparMiningLLC on December 06, 2021, 09:08:47 PM hmm - I thought I put a guess in but I cannot find where I did.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on December 06, 2021, 09:22:40 PM Loyce will hopefully announce the winner fast :) I think I'll be asleep at 00.00 CET, I need to get up early again.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on December 06, 2021, 09:30:44 PM I think I'll be asleep at 00.00 CET, I need to get up early again. Just Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: stadus on December 06, 2021, 09:36:08 PM I think I'll be asleep at 00.00 CET, I need to get up early again. Just 2 hours and some minutes away ;DI was not able to participate in the guessing competition but I'm excited for you guys. Looking at the predictions, DdmrDdmr is the closest prediction with $48,999. congratulations in advance to whoever will win but the price seemed no significant movement now, so DdmrDdmr great job. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on December 06, 2021, 10:10:32 PM Nailbiter continuous
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mikeywith on December 06, 2021, 10:11:18 PM I was not able to participate in the guessing competition but I'm excited for you guys. Looking at the predictions, DdmrDdmr is the closest prediction with $48,999. congratulations in advance to whoever will win but the price seemed no significant movement now, so DdmrDdmr great job. BTC never fails to amaze! a few minutes later and now it seems like JanEmil with 50k prediction is closer to winning against DdmrDdmr, 50 mins to go, anyone within 1-2k range from here can still win. Quote 231. $47,777 bitebits 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr 233. $50,000 JanEmil 234. $51,000 Mbitr 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal Good luck, and thanks @El duderino_ for this fun. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on December 06, 2021, 10:13:25 PM Interestingly when I made my prediction I was guessing we would be testing a floor of an ATH but figured it would be a bit higher.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on December 06, 2021, 10:48:05 PM BTC never fails to amaze! a few minutes later and now it seems like JanEmil with 50k prediction is closer to winning against DdmrDdmr, 50 mins to go, anyone within 1-2k range from here can still win. Mbitr is now closer and now remaining 12 minutesQuote 231. $47,777 bitebits 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr 233. $50,000 JanEmil 234. $51,000 Mbitr 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 06, 2021, 11:22:18 PM BTC never fails to amaze! a few minutes later and now it seems like JanEmil with 50k prediction is closer to winning against DdmrDdmr, 50 mins to go, anyone within 1-2k range from here can still win. Mbitr is now closer and now remaining 12 minutesQuote 231. $47,777 bitebits 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr 233. $50,000 JanEmil 234. $51,000 Mbitr 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal I am confused as to the time left It is 622pm eastern time so google says that is 1122pm UTC which means 38 minutes left. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on December 06, 2021, 11:25:37 PM I am confused as to the time left LoyceV will announce the winner when he is awake, guessing he is sleeping by now. Or maybe I am getting it wrong, but I think CET corresponds to GMT +1.Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: philipma1957 on December 06, 2021, 11:26:36 PM I am confused as to the time left LoyceV will announce the winner when he is awake, guessing he is sleeping by now. Or maybe I am getting it wrong, but I think CET correspond to GMT +1.oh I thought it was utc 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331708#msg57331708) 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) so if that is the case the price point was about 26 minutes ago maybe 50 943 but I certainly am merely guessing Maybe Mbitr won. Let us know loycev Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: mikeywith on December 07, 2021, 12:10:08 AM I am confused as to the time left LoyceV will announce the winner when he is awake, guessing he is sleeping by now. Or maybe I am getting it wrong, but I think CET correspond to GMT +1.oh I thought it was utc 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331708#msg57331708) 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) so if that is the case the price point was about 26 minutes ago maybe 50 943 but I certainly am merely guessing Maybe Mbitr won. Let us know loycev You posted this at 00:26:36 AM CET, which means the winner was already declared when you posted, I checked across all the major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and FTX, the opening candle was between $50,700 to $50,850, on Bitstamp it was 50,837$ which is the exchange mentioned in the OP, that means the winner is box 234 ( $50,444.06 - $51,452.93) aka Mbitr. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: STT on December 07, 2021, 12:44:09 AM CET (https://i.imgur.com/AVtRYCs.png) is 1 hour ahead of forum time basically.
Quote -BITSTAMP PRICE to be clear!!! I would also guess its Mbitr that took a photo finish on this one (https://i.imgur.com/JTzyU02.png) Also this 7th is the 80th anniversary of Pearl Harbor RIP Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on December 07, 2021, 12:59:52 AM Sorry I couldn’t lock the result on time since it’s manual and I don’t have access to my laptop atm.
But as per below graph BTC price on Bitstamp on 7th Dec 00:00 (CET +3 ~ 3:00 my local time) was $50943.93 https://i.imgur.com/hD2gDc2.jpg This means 234. $51,000 Mbitr is closest. But let’s wait for Loycev’s confirmation. CET (https://i.imgur.com/AVtRYCs.png) is 1 hour ahead of forum time basically. I think forum time you see is as per your local time, it’s automatically adjusted based on your location. Edit # 11 may be (I think it’s ok to edit until someone replies after my post) My wife is asking what I’m doing on mobile at 4am?? I told her about this Bitcoin price guessing game and now she’s asking why I didn’t win? Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Wind_FURY on December 07, 2021, 05:50:55 AM So I missed out all that drama. Nice real-time tickers, nicer to see the hiccup ongoing, nicest to see that the best the bears and profit-takers can do is a 10% shaving off peak. Have to admit was expecting price to blow through 70k once new top achieved but I guess we gotta see all kinds of ATH behaviour in this peak's that already done some 1st timers. It was nothing in my opinion, it didn’t wake up sgbett and the other Bitcoin Cash SV flat-earthers. But the real drama will be another 30% mini-crash next few weeks, then REAL ATH. That would be the last opportunity to buy the dip under current ATH. Oh my!!! Holy shit!!! Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations? I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up.. 8) I told you, ser. We should never underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility. We saw it during April, and I believe another retest back to $35,000 is currently possible, or is that just in “the realm of extreme possibilites”? Plus who crashed the market, and should we prepare for jeers from proudhon and sgbett again? Hahaha! There will be no jeering on my watch. I think you misunderstand me, I have a conscience. He’s back! It must be the bottom of the DIP! Plus of course you can never jeer, and it isn’t because of you have a conscience. Because truly, you fully support the most blatant mockery of Bitcoin ever created. Quote When BTC collapses the people that get hurt will be the many bag holding retail investors that were deceived. Which vastly outnumbers those with malicious intent to deceive who will likely walk way with a stack of profit. It happens all the time on Wall St. but BTC is different right? Bitcoin depends on the open market for price discovery, if it DIPs and people lost capital, it doesn’t make Bitcoin a scam. Although, there will be scammers in the market, like those who sell fake-Bitcoins. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: goldkingcoiner on December 07, 2021, 08:25:04 AM Congratulations to Mbitr! You better hodl those coins! 8)
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: DdmrDdmr on December 07, 2021, 09:14:14 AM Well, roughly just over two hours off from the deadline, things changed in what was looking like a steady roll at the same pace to the finish line. Once the near-to last hour steep peek took shape, chances of it receding in the remaining timeframe seemed small, and my options, I figured, were only to stand if an even sharper and abrupt price took place (in the off-chance that it would lead to a quick sell-off and a drop again).
Thanks to El duderino_ for the event, and congrats to Mbitr for hitting the price range. It was a nice passive race to the end. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LoyceV on December 07, 2021, 09:27:53 AM First:
what will the price be on December 7th ...... 00.00 CET December 7th "2021" ~ -BITSTAMP PRICE to be clear!!! Loyce will hopefully announce the winner fast :) I'm late to the party :( It was an exciting last hour of the contest though, with a nice little pump.I've never used Bitstamp, so how do I verify historic prices there? I found this graph (https://www.bitstamp.net/markets/btc/usd/) and it looks like it's already in CET (which is my time zone too): https://loyce.club/other/bitstamp.png That puts the Bitcoin price at the end of the Summer dip December price prediction contest at $50,908.28. But as per below graph BTC price on Bitstamp on 7th Dec 00:00 (CET +3 ~ 3:00 my local time) was $50943.93 As you can see, I got a slightly different number. Any other ways to check historic price data on Bitstamp for an exact price?https://i.imgur.com/hD2gDc2.jpg Assuming either one of the prices ($50,908.28 or $50,943.93) is correct, Mbitr's prediction is by far the closest: Prediction overview Congratulations Mbitr!230. $47,500 goldkingcoiner (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57333260#msg57333260) 231. $47,777 bitebits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57328024#msg57328024) 232. $48,999 DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57331708#msg57331708) 233. $50,000 JanEmil (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57325242#msg57325242) 234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) 236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57329681#msg57329681) that means the winner is box 234 ( $50,444.06 - $51,452.93) For the record: the "boxes" have nothing to do with the winner! See:You can still predict any price you want, your guess does not claim the entire 2% "box". The 2% is only meant to evenly spread out predictions, the "2% boxes" will be ignored when deciding who's closest to the winning price. Example: User A predicts $505. User B predicts $512. If the Bitcoin price when the game ends is $509.35, User B is the winner. 341. $420,000 pooya87 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419287#msg57419287) I had high hopes for you :DTitle: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Charles-Tim on December 07, 2021, 09:51:53 AM I am not just happy for one reason, the reason being that this thread will soon no longer remain active as it once was before, the winner has been announced and no much focus on this thread again.
My prediction was very inaccurate and wrong but I have to accept that truly I gained from many posts on this thread, especially from experienced members that were active. We all know that knowledge is power. I have to appreciate El duderino_ for this bitcoin price prediction giveaway, I believe also others appreciate this. Thanks for bring this up and on until the winner was announced. Congrats Mbitr. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Mbitr on December 07, 2021, 09:52:26 AM Wow , another great competition- thanks AGAIN dude :) $51,000 - Mbitr please WHY ? I’ll be focusing my trading and figures on this guy :) https://hackaday.com/2021/07/07/hamster-trades-crypto-better-than-you/ Goooo MR Gox :) https://i.imgur.com/Nt4j7x2.jpg https://twitter.com/mrgoxx?s=21 Wow - THANKYOU- El duderino_ , I really wasn’t expecting to win and it’s a bitter/sweet win as well, as like all of us , we all wanted a 6 figure price :) Thanks also to LoyceV for their huge input in this competition. And sadly - even more bitter/sweet was the “tongue-in-cheek “ way I suggested I based my figures on has ended poorly . MR. Goxx has sadly passed away https://twitter.com/mrgoxx?s=21 Thankyou again El duderino_ , really appreciate and the hodl continues with a supreme boost . Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: buwaytress on December 07, 2021, 10:59:02 AM Nice going Mbitr! I went to bed thinking it would definitely be someone above 51k, but hey, above 50k isn't bad at all, lest we forget where we were when this thread and competition was thought up.
And nah, I don't think most of us here are too upset about not hitting 6 figures. Bitcoin has every right to extend bargain season for another... six months? (hope springs eternal). RIP MR. Goxx Hail and long live El duderino_ Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: shahzadafzal on December 07, 2021, 11:00:28 AM Assuming either one of the prices ($50,908.28 or $50,943.93) is correct, Mbitr's prediction is by far the closest: Yes I saw same price $50,908.28 on bitstamp website but on mobile app it's showing $50,943.93 anyway in both cases Mbitr is the winner. Assuming either one of the prices ($50,908.28 or $50,943.93) is correct, Mbitr's prediction is by far the closest: Prediction overview Congratulations Mbitr!234. $51,000 Mbitr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57419265#msg57419265) 235. $52,000 shahzadafzal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57405761#msg57405761) Congratulations Mbitr.... I was close yet so far. https://i.imgur.com/G1huJde.png Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on December 07, 2021, 11:35:05 AM Congrats Mbitr & thank you to El Duderino for being such a generous, fun, trustworthy member of the community.
My £86,xxx far away *sobs* Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: DdmrDdmr on December 07, 2021, 02:00:43 PM I downloaded historical data for Bitstamp’s BTC to USD, retrieving data by the hour (granularity can go down to the minute) from here: https://www.cryptodatadownload.com/data/bitstamp/
Since unix dates are in UTC, and we were looking for 00:00 CET for the seventh of December, I guess we should look for the reading corresponding to 23:00 UTC/GMT for the 6th of December (UTC+1=CET) Quote unix,date,symbol,open,high,low,close,Volume BTC,Volume USD The reading places the price at 50.834,17 $ (opening). Slightly different from those other data captures mentioned here, but still rendering the same result.1638835200,2021-12-07 00:00:00,BTC/USD,50550.09,50751.51,50421.02,50498.35,34.70297041,1752442.7458038235 1638831600,2021-12-06 23:00:00,BTC/USD,50834.17,50956.34,50348.81,50555.00,175.50895113,8872855.02437715 1638828000,2021-12-06 22:00:00,BTC/USD,50141.61,50986.00,50120.54,50834.17,328.39660582,16693768.887676869 Note: An interesting exercise to perform would be to cross this data with everyone's bet range, and perform a graphical race towards the target price of each day (hour might be too granular). Not trivial to do, but if anyone’s in the mood to spend some hours, the data is available at the link provided above. Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on December 07, 2021, 03:22:22 PM https://i.imgur.com/xY9qlZX.png
Damn I was so close :) Thank you El duderino_ for organizing this game. It was very exciting, especially at the end when high volatility hit the market. Congratulations Mbitr. Looks like fallowing "MR Gox" was the best strategy :) Wow , another great competition- thanks AGAIN dude :) $51,000 - Mbitr please WHY ? I’ll be focusing my trading and figures on this guy :) https://hackaday.com/2021/07/07/hamster-trades-crypto-better-than-you/ Goooo MR Gox :) https://i.imgur.com/Nt4j7x2.jpg https://twitter.com/mrgoxx?s=21 I wish I know that before :(:( Mr Goxx, the cryptocurrency-trading hamster, dies (https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-59432659) Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on December 07, 2021, 03:23:31 PM Just in for first today
Send out a PM Will clear out payement today Congrats with the WIN bro Cheers Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: El duderino_ on December 07, 2021, 06:20:19 PM Just paid the debt...
Another congrats and keep on the HODL Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Hueristic on December 07, 2021, 06:28:33 PM Congrats Mbitr.
Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Mbitr on December 07, 2021, 06:35:00 PM Just paid the debt... And recieved - Thanks again for running this and thanks again for the prize :)Another congrats and keep on the HODL Title: Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! Post by: Lafu on December 07, 2021, 06:41:11 PM Congratulations Mbitr for the win !
It was a nice and turbulent and crazy race the last week ! Specialy the last 2 days with the ups and downs on the price , yesterday i thought that it maybe gets more down, but when i checked the price today i was hoping that it goes more up again . Thanks El duderino_ for this price prediction game. |
