Anyhow, I do remain somewhat confused
I said it is very unlikely we pass 75k this year, you thought that me thinking that btc has some sort of price limits was wrong, so if 75k isnt the limit and i turn out to be wrong, we might go a lot higher levels, That will make me "richer" at the expense of being "wrong" which I'll gladly accept.
O.k.. I will concede that there is some aspect of your earlier enigma of a post (cited below) that went over my head... but jeez... kind of a puzzle, no?
yes.. you are probably wrong..
Better rich than right.
yes.. you are probably wrong..
I'm sorry, but which part of their analysis is probably wrong? Making this statement means you know an analysis that is correct.
My statement proclaiming that another statement is probably wrong is a response. It does not necessarily mean that I have any other analysis or that I want to make any analysis further than stating that the analysis that was made is probably wrong. By the way, I have made some posts regarding my assignment of probabilities regarding my opinion regarding various price points and in terms of timing of the top of this cycle, too. Even though some of those posts are more than a month old, I don't see anything in the recent BTC price moves that change my opinions about probabilities, except maybe allowing for higher probabilities that this cycle will end up getting drug out past this calendar year.... Maybe I will update and tweak my numbers at some point..
here's a link for ease of reference.Just because Bitcoin does those run-ups, it doesn't mean it'll continue doing them forever.
You seem to be inventing a strawman argument here. I put very little weight to either supercycle theories or to UP only ideas, though I do acknowledge that there have been some credible folks coming over to supercycle theories even though even they are not proclaiming the disappearance of corrections along the way.
Also, just because there's a numerous amount of posts predicting it'll hit 100k-200k and it, indeed, reaches before the end of the year, it doesn't make mikeywith's analysis “probably wrong”.
I am not saying that either or even relying on the fact that a lot of people are saying it.
I think that I had already asserted that $55k to $80k is likely a noman's land and that there is likely a lot of lacking of resistance in this area and that lacking of resistance could well go up to the area of sub-$100k. I did expect that there would be resistance before $100k, but the likely lack of resistance also makes his assertion of prices not getting above $75k to be not too likely. Of course, the fact that we have been in the noman's zone (supra $55k for 6 weeks-ish) does start to challenge the noman's land thesis.. so surely I will grant that.. even though I doubt that the noman's land thesis has been negated yet. You can believe whatever you like regarding various bitcoin price dynamics where resistance or support levels might be.
The same people who predicted it'll exceed 64k are the same who think it'll exceed 100k, but how many of their predictions were right? Less than half?
You are generalizing a lot here, and I am not even clear about what you are saying. Are you talking about supra $64k/$100k for this prediction game? or for the calendar year? or for the cycle? If what you were saying were true regarding this prediction game, there would be no predictions between $64k and $100k, which truly is not the case. Or are you saying that people who had said supra $64k at the time of the prediction game have now converted over to saying supra $100k - with the passage of time? Does it not make sense that higher BTC prices become more likely once they reach higher prices? I understand that there are questions of how fast the price gets there, but in the case of BTC we had a pretty much nonstop price rise from $10k-ish to $65k-ish.. in about 7 months, so yeah when we got the 56% correction down to $28,600 there might have been some justification to allow buy support to catch up before the BTC price is able to more easily move higher than $65k-ish and sure so far it has only gotten to $69k.. so surely there could be questions and or doubt about whether buy support is going to be able to keep up or continue and people are going to have different views about that. and some people will profit more than others based upon the way they choose to act upon their views.
I keep seeing people on Twitter making monstrous calculations for the price, but if you ever look at those a few of months later, you'll realize most of those turned out incorrect.
Well hopefully members here are not distracted too much in terms of establishing their own strategies based on all over the place assertions regarding BTC prices. That has been true for a long time, and for sure by definition most predictions are going to be wrong the more specific they attempt to ascribe what is going to happen, and even if some kind of specific prediction ends up being correct, that does not mean that actions should have been weighted 100% based on a prediction that may have earlier had a 20% chance of being correct but when it ends up being correct that 20% then becomes 100%.. but does not even mean that the odds had been wrongly established at the earlier time before the event became true.
If anyone has followed my own BTC strategies over the years, which I would assert have been pretty damned consistent, even if I have attempted to learn along the way and tweak from time to time, I have many times proclaimed that guys need to attempt to establish their bitcoin plans/strategies in accordance with their own personal circumstances and then consider whether they are in accumulation stage, maintenance stage or liquidation stage so their personal circumstances and what stage they are in would affect their strategies... yet even after establishing strategies and reaching goals, there can be ways of deciding what to do that attempts to both take out emotions and to take out needs for short term predictions.
After largely reaching my BTC accumulation targets in 2014 and 2015 (and even considering myself to have had over-accumulated), my own strategy has been to buy on the way down and to sell on the way up (which I largely started in late 2015 when BTC prices were around $250), and to both attempt to spread the ranges of the triggering
of the buy/sell orders, and also to error on the side of ongoingly accumulating BTC.. and largely I have never really sold much on the way up
(currently less than 1% for every 15%-ish rise..even though sometimes I do make adjustments to those numbers with the passage of time based on some cashflow considerations going on in my life.. and maybe a little bit adjustments that account for certain aspects of what I believe to be short term BTC price momentum)....so in that regard, I believe that since around mid-to-late 2015, my BTC portfolio has been
(and continues to be) advantaged by seemingly inevitable BTC volatility, presume that the BTC price is going up in the long run and just go with the flow regarding if the BTCprice goes down I buy and if the price goes up I sell .. so there are attempts at: 1) being emotional neutral regarding short-term BTC price moves, 2) largely not allowing predictions to affect buy/sell strategies, except maybe in very small ways (aka ongoing employment of incrementalism strategies) and 3) presuming that in the long term - and at least in 4 years cycles (if not longer) that the BTC price will be higher - even if from time to time it might take a while to work itself out - such as 2-3 years of DOWNity periods.. which we have seen at least a couple times while I have been in and even shorter periods of threatening going into longer periods of DOWNity that end up being shorter periods.
By the way, sometimes I experience some dilemmas regarding how low to keep my BTC buy orders, and currently I have buy orders that go down to $20k-ish.. and in March 2021 I was criticized for keeping buy orders down to $9k.. even though later those buy orders did end up getting removed.n I have always attempted to project ahead regarding the amount that I sell on the way up.. so in 2015 I had projected that I would sell up to 40% or so of my BTC portfolio in the event that BTC prices went shooting up, but when push came to shove during early 2017-ish as BTC prices had already begun rising, I was ongoingly down-tweaking the quantity of my BTC sales - because I was realizing in practice my system was causing me to sell way more of my BTC than I really wanted to sell, so by the time the BTC price reached supra $19k levels in late 2017, I had realized that I had sold nearly 12% of my BTC.. so my BTC/cash allocations in my BTC portfolio were 88/12... and sure maybe that felt good when the BTC price corrected in 2018, but I still felt as if I had sold too much.. so currently, my BTC sales projections within my regular system do not cause me to sell close to as much BTC, even during considerably great exponential UPpity periods, if they were to continue to happen.
If you have been following bitcoin circles (such as this forum or some other bitcoin circles), you may well have noticed that historically there frequently have been a decent number of folks who end up failing and refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in BTC prices.., happens over and over and over again.. so one thing is being invested in various fiat investments and another thing is being invested in bitcoin.. and having some kinds of decent long term plans.. and surely it can take a while to accumulate BTC too....
Something I am reminded of often enough, as we'se discussed in previous posts. Discounting those who exited at predetermined prices (fairplay to them, even if those targets were $10,000k) since they left and never came back and never then entered into regret and bitter mode.
But always surprised me when I was new to the scene and meeting supposed veterans who'd given up, and then only to stick around and then go into some weird game of trying to guess the top again, only to inevitably fail because they always think too "rationally" and "conservatively". They then revert to trader mentality from being holders. And it's kind of sad to see that.
Yes... it is very good to highlight that trader versus investor approach to matters, and for my own situation, I have never really considered myself as a trader because my first 1.5 years I ONLY bought (and got to my BTC accumulation targets - and somewhat beyond them). So I have always considered myself as a BTC HODLer and accumulator, but at some point if you realize that you have way over accumulated, then it seems to become practical to allow for sales and even to allow for the shaving off of extra as the price goes up and to potentially use that money if the BTC price goes back down.. but if it never goes back down, then so what, you have shaved off profitable and you already have way more than enough BTC.
For example, for ease of calculation, imagine an average cost of BTC of $1k, and so when the BTC price goes up to $20k, then you are 20x in profits, but when the BTC price crashes down to $3k/$4k, you are ONLY 3x/4x in profits.
So yeah, you might be a bit reluctant to shave any BTC off at 3x/4x profits, but you might not give too many shits - however, when the BTC price goes to $69k and maybe drops to $28k, yeah your profits are moving around between 28x and 69x, so sure you might try to strategize somewhat in shaving off some profits, but largely you are not likely to give too many shits if you happen to need to buy something that is with 28x profits rather than waiting it out for higher levels of profits.. and surely you may also just have extra cash that has already been shaven off along the way up from $3k up to $69k, so it is not like you are cash starved and having to sell BTC at a time that is anything other than your own choosing even if they BTC prices happen to "ONLY" be in 28x profits rather than 69x profits.
By the way buwaytress, your point about too conservative or too rational does also seem to apply because there do seem to be a lot of traps that many of us longer termers have seen the new entrants fall into. Sometimes the thoughts might be: "holy shit, not this again," but there are ongoing plugging BTC into categories in which it just does not fit, failure refusal to account for various currently valid BTC price prediction models, treating BTC as if it were a mature asset class
(or some kind of stock or company or some other nonsense), and there might be some other similar newer entrant
(and not even saying that these are dumb people) mistakes that are not coming into my head at the moment.
I understand what you are saying, but JayJuanGee is a man that is more posting in the wall observer thread, the reason for more optimism about bitcoin price. I wish I can be like that. But I am a type that is waiting for dump so that I can buy the dip
. I hope you will get me righta about this.
Of course there are people who are more into fundamental analysis and others more into technical analysis and surely a variety of ways to figure out how much weight to give to the varying ways of attempting to figure out short-term price direction in order that you can attempt to profit from it.
I never try to blame people for their actual status because for sure there are guys who are either just coming into BTC or they have issues with their cashflow so that it takes a whole hell of a long time to be able to get a kind of sufficient stake in BTC in order to feel that you have either reached your accumulation goals or that you have at least had enough time to accumulate and prepare for UP.
Once you have either reached accumulation targets or gotten to a feeling that you are somewhat close then likely you will discontinue being concerned about whether the BTC price drops or not because any extra BTC accumulation starts to feel like icing on the cake and/or extra rather than your feelings that you have not yet come close to reaching your BTC accumulation goals.
JayJuanGee is just one of the people on this forum that is more optimistic about bitcoin price, and to me his analysis is right, the analysis that has been right from long time till now.
Just to clarify; I'm also bullish on bitcoin and I don't think it'll be $75k by the end of the year (and maybe a little from January), but lots more. I'm just saying that due to pure speculation, you can't say that someone's analysis is correct or incorrect. Based on which factors do we examine that an analysis is right?
I think that you can.
I can say that in my opinion you are "likely" to be wwwwwwrrrrrrrooooooonnnnnngggggg....
what is so bad about that? If you say that "your opinion" needs to be backed up more, then sure you are not persuaded, but does not necessarily mean that there is any further need to back up either an opinion or an assertion that some other analysis is likely wrong.. sure you might buy into the other analysis because it is more backed up than the opinion, but the analysis still could have high odds of being wrong, even if it is backed up by maths, science, facts, logic and whatever other mumbo jumbo that you want to throw in there.
By the way, I had already asserted that I had lauded mikeywith for his discussion of his chart and his analysis even while saying that I believe that he is likely wrong... I doubt that I need to do more.. even though I did provide some additional discussion already.
I wish I can be like that.
I wish I wouldn't. It's overrated. You keep waiting for a crazy spike that lasts few hours for months!
Many peeps have that same problem.. It can be difficult to take your eyes off of the charts - especially when you keep expecting something to happen (that may or may not end up happening, as you rightly point out BlackHatCoiner.
Short term bitcoin prediction can be inaccurate, even analysts are predicting it wrong with their professional analyses, but no one is wrong about the long term all-time-high prediction.
I see it like this: The more you wait, the less the odds to not go upwards. Professional, non-professional — it works!
That makes little sense BlackHatCoiner. In BTC, sometimes breakouts are to the upside and sometimes breakouts are to the downside, and if we are in a bull market (which is likely to be the case right now), then the odds for breaking out to the upside are greater than the odds for breaking out to the downside. Sure we might not be in a bull market.. and we might not even know if we are in a bull or a bear market until looking at the matter a few years down the road. Of course, part of the justification or background for differing assessments regarding where the BTC price is going is to project whether we might be in a bull market or a bear market, and surely people do not always get those projections right, and surely some people make their preparations so that they are going to be able to profit whether they are right or not. Of course, there are a lot of variations in between regarding how people use these kinds of frameworks and the extent that they are ready, willing or able to act upon their assessments/projections of the frameworks.
